Aggregator

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Predominantly zonal mid-level flow is anticipated across the U.S. on Thursday, leading to generally mild conditions and low fire-weather concerns. Locally drier and windier conditions could develop in portions of the Southern and Central Plains, but confidence is currently too low in these scenarios to warrant any Elevated areas at this time. ...NE Panhandle and vicinity... Confidence has increased in a surface cyclone developing in the lee of the Rockies near the NE Panhandle throughout the day on Thursday. This will support some moisture return across the Southern Plains, as well as relatively dry, downsloping flow in the NE Panhandle, eastern WY, and northeastern CO. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers could yield relative humidities around 20 percent across the region with sustained winds of 15-20 mph. Fuels do not appear to be critically dry, but could support some fire spread (e.g., ERCs approaching the 70-80th percentiles in some areas). No Elevated area is delineated in this outlook due to slightly lower confidence in the location of the surface cyclone and attendant moisture gradients; guidance will be monitored for possible future inclusion. ...West TX... An area of slightly stronger mid-level flow is expected to overspread West TX on Thursday afternoon, contributing to locally gustier surface conditions. Wind speeds around 15-20 mph and relative humidities around 15-20 percent could contribute to local Elevated fire-weather conditions. However, highlighting a particular area is currently difficult due to the chance for wetting precipitation Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Confidence in such a scenario will continue to be monitored, possibly warranting areal delineations in future outlooks. ..Flournoy.. 03/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Predominantly zonal mid-level flow is anticipated across the U.S. on Thursday, leading to generally mild conditions and low fire-weather concerns. Locally drier and windier conditions could develop in portions of the Southern and Central Plains, but confidence is currently too low in these scenarios to warrant any Elevated areas at this time. ...NE Panhandle and vicinity... Confidence has increased in a surface cyclone developing in the lee of the Rockies near the NE Panhandle throughout the day on Thursday. This will support some moisture return across the Southern Plains, as well as relatively dry, downsloping flow in the NE Panhandle, eastern WY, and northeastern CO. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers could yield relative humidities around 20 percent across the region with sustained winds of 15-20 mph. Fuels do not appear to be critically dry, but could support some fire spread (e.g., ERCs approaching the 70-80th percentiles in some areas). No Elevated area is delineated in this outlook due to slightly lower confidence in the location of the surface cyclone and attendant moisture gradients; guidance will be monitored for possible future inclusion. ...West TX... An area of slightly stronger mid-level flow is expected to overspread West TX on Thursday afternoon, contributing to locally gustier surface conditions. Wind speeds around 15-20 mph and relative humidities around 15-20 percent could contribute to local Elevated fire-weather conditions. However, highlighting a particular area is currently difficult due to the chance for wetting precipitation Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Confidence in such a scenario will continue to be monitored, possibly warranting areal delineations in future outlooks. ..Flournoy.. 03/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Predominantly zonal mid-level flow is anticipated across the U.S. on Thursday, leading to generally mild conditions and low fire-weather concerns. Locally drier and windier conditions could develop in portions of the Southern and Central Plains, but confidence is currently too low in these scenarios to warrant any Elevated areas at this time. ...NE Panhandle and vicinity... Confidence has increased in a surface cyclone developing in the lee of the Rockies near the NE Panhandle throughout the day on Thursday. This will support some moisture return across the Southern Plains, as well as relatively dry, downsloping flow in the NE Panhandle, eastern WY, and northeastern CO. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers could yield relative humidities around 20 percent across the region with sustained winds of 15-20 mph. Fuels do not appear to be critically dry, but could support some fire spread (e.g., ERCs approaching the 70-80th percentiles in some areas). No Elevated area is delineated in this outlook due to slightly lower confidence in the location of the surface cyclone and attendant moisture gradients; guidance will be monitored for possible future inclusion. ...West TX... An area of slightly stronger mid-level flow is expected to overspread West TX on Thursday afternoon, contributing to locally gustier surface conditions. Wind speeds around 15-20 mph and relative humidities around 15-20 percent could contribute to local Elevated fire-weather conditions. However, highlighting a particular area is currently difficult due to the chance for wetting precipitation Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Confidence in such a scenario will continue to be monitored, possibly warranting areal delineations in future outlooks. ..Flournoy.. 03/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... Separate areas of Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated this afternoon and evening in portions of the Southern High Plains and Mid-Atlantic region. ...Southeastern NM and West TX... A shortwave mid-level trough is expected to gradually weaken and phase with the subtropical jet throughout the day today. As a result, modest westerly flow aloft will yield lee cyclogenesis along the NM/TX border and southerly moisture return across the Southern Plains. To the west, downsloping flow will support steadily drying conditions across southeastern NM and West TX with relative humidities dropping to around 15 percent and wind speeds around 15 mph. Steadily drying fuels -- amidst these dry, windy conditions -- are expected to support an Elevated fire-weather threat across the region this afternoon and evening. ...Mid-Atlantic... A belt of strong northwesterly mid-level flow will move through the Mid-Atlantic throughout the day today. This will support deep boundary-layer mixing and dry, windy surface conditions. Current guidance suggests relative humidities could drop to around 25-30 percent with sustained winds around 15 mph. Finer fuels have dried sufficiently to support some fire spread, warranting an Elevated area across the Mid-Atlantic region. ..Flournoy.. 03/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... Separate areas of Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated this afternoon and evening in portions of the Southern High Plains and Mid-Atlantic region. ...Southeastern NM and West TX... A shortwave mid-level trough is expected to gradually weaken and phase with the subtropical jet throughout the day today. As a result, modest westerly flow aloft will yield lee cyclogenesis along the NM/TX border and southerly moisture return across the Southern Plains. To the west, downsloping flow will support steadily drying conditions across southeastern NM and West TX with relative humidities dropping to around 15 percent and wind speeds around 15 mph. Steadily drying fuels -- amidst these dry, windy conditions -- are expected to support an Elevated fire-weather threat across the region this afternoon and evening. ...Mid-Atlantic... A belt of strong northwesterly mid-level flow will move through the Mid-Atlantic throughout the day today. This will support deep boundary-layer mixing and dry, windy surface conditions. Current guidance suggests relative humidities could drop to around 25-30 percent with sustained winds around 15 mph. Finer fuels have dried sufficiently to support some fire spread, warranting an Elevated area across the Mid-Atlantic region. ..Flournoy.. 03/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... Separate areas of Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated this afternoon and evening in portions of the Southern High Plains and Mid-Atlantic region. ...Southeastern NM and West TX... A shortwave mid-level trough is expected to gradually weaken and phase with the subtropical jet throughout the day today. As a result, modest westerly flow aloft will yield lee cyclogenesis along the NM/TX border and southerly moisture return across the Southern Plains. To the west, downsloping flow will support steadily drying conditions across southeastern NM and West TX with relative humidities dropping to around 15 percent and wind speeds around 15 mph. Steadily drying fuels -- amidst these dry, windy conditions -- are expected to support an Elevated fire-weather threat across the region this afternoon and evening. ...Mid-Atlantic... A belt of strong northwesterly mid-level flow will move through the Mid-Atlantic throughout the day today. This will support deep boundary-layer mixing and dry, windy surface conditions. Current guidance suggests relative humidities could drop to around 25-30 percent with sustained winds around 15 mph. Finer fuels have dried sufficiently to support some fire spread, warranting an Elevated area across the Mid-Atlantic region. ..Flournoy.. 03/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... Separate areas of Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated this afternoon and evening in portions of the Southern High Plains and Mid-Atlantic region. ...Southeastern NM and West TX... A shortwave mid-level trough is expected to gradually weaken and phase with the subtropical jet throughout the day today. As a result, modest westerly flow aloft will yield lee cyclogenesis along the NM/TX border and southerly moisture return across the Southern Plains. To the west, downsloping flow will support steadily drying conditions across southeastern NM and West TX with relative humidities dropping to around 15 percent and wind speeds around 15 mph. Steadily drying fuels -- amidst these dry, windy conditions -- are expected to support an Elevated fire-weather threat across the region this afternoon and evening. ...Mid-Atlantic... A belt of strong northwesterly mid-level flow will move through the Mid-Atlantic throughout the day today. This will support deep boundary-layer mixing and dry, windy surface conditions. Current guidance suggests relative humidities could drop to around 25-30 percent with sustained winds around 15 mph. Finer fuels have dried sufficiently to support some fire spread, warranting an Elevated area across the Mid-Atlantic region. ..Flournoy.. 03/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... Separate areas of Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated this afternoon and evening in portions of the Southern High Plains and Mid-Atlantic region. ...Southeastern NM and West TX... A shortwave mid-level trough is expected to gradually weaken and phase with the subtropical jet throughout the day today. As a result, modest westerly flow aloft will yield lee cyclogenesis along the NM/TX border and southerly moisture return across the Southern Plains. To the west, downsloping flow will support steadily drying conditions across southeastern NM and West TX with relative humidities dropping to around 15 percent and wind speeds around 15 mph. Steadily drying fuels -- amidst these dry, windy conditions -- are expected to support an Elevated fire-weather threat across the region this afternoon and evening. ...Mid-Atlantic... A belt of strong northwesterly mid-level flow will move through the Mid-Atlantic throughout the day today. This will support deep boundary-layer mixing and dry, windy surface conditions. Current guidance suggests relative humidities could drop to around 25-30 percent with sustained winds around 15 mph. Finer fuels have dried sufficiently to support some fire spread, warranting an Elevated area across the Mid-Atlantic region. ..Flournoy.. 03/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central and southeast Texas into coastal Louisiana on Thursday. One or two organizing clusters could evolve, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Downstream of a blocking regime centered across the northeastern Pacific, it appears that split westerlies will continue to trend more zonal to the east of the Rockies, in the wake of a deep, occluding cyclone migrating northeastward across the Canadian Maritimes. Models suggest that the shallower leading edge of a significant cold intrusion trailing the cyclone will stall and undergo considerable modification across the southern Mid Atlantic, Tennessee Valley, Ozark Plateau and central Great Plains, into the lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys by late Thursday night. In the wake of a preceding front, relatively cool conditions appear likely to be maintained across much of the southeastern Great Plains into northern Gulf coast vicinity, beneath increasingly widespread mid/high-level cloudiness and associated light to moderate rain falling into an initially dry/potentially cool boundary layer. This will precede one notable short wave perturbation emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific (readily evident in current satellite imagery approaching Baja), and a remnant short wave perturbation forecast to emerge from the Southwest. There has been considerable spread evident in the various model output concerning the emerging remnants of the closed from the Southwest, as a persistent block inland of the Pacific coast breaks down. Guidance has trended notably more sheared with an initial perturbation forecast to accelerate east of southern Rockies through the Texas Panhandle region late Wednesday into early Thursday. But it still appears that a trailing perturbation may become better defined and accelerate eastward within stronger mid-level flow, across the Permian Basin/Texas Big Bend into the northwestern Gulf coast by 12Z Friday. Forcing associated with the trailing perturbation may contribute to a developing frontal wave across the upper Texas into Louisiana coastal plain, but guidance continues to suggest that this will remain weak through this period. ...Texas... It still appears that moderate boundary-layer CAPE will develop, in association with moistening beneath warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air across the lower into middle Texas coastal plain by early Thursday. However, the continued northward advection of this boundary-layer moisture, and associated destabilization, is now more unclear in latest model output. Forcing for ascent associated with the subtropical perturbation is generally forecast to reach middle into upper Texas coastal areas Thursday morning through midday, if not earlier. And it appears possible that this could support initially strong to severe thunderstorm development, including supercells, before convection consolidates into cluster and progresses offshore along a developing warm frontal zone across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. In the wake of this convection, daytime heating within at least a modestly moist boundary-layer probably will contribute to at least weak CAPE in a corridor from middle Texas coastal areas into the Interstate 35 corridor of central Texas. As the mid-level cold core (-18 to -20C) of the perturbation emanating from the Southwest overspreads this region Thursday evening, renewed vigorous thunderstorm development appears possible. Strong deep-layer shear may contribute to a risk for supercells initially, with at least some potential for the evolution of an organizing cluster overspreading the upper Texas into Louisiana coastal plain Thursday night. It is still possible that severe probabilities could be increased across parts of central into southeastern Texas in later outlooks, once the sub-synoptic developments become better resolved. ..Kerr.. 03/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central and southeast Texas into coastal Louisiana on Thursday. One or two organizing clusters could evolve, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Downstream of a blocking regime centered across the northeastern Pacific, it appears that split westerlies will continue to trend more zonal to the east of the Rockies, in the wake of a deep, occluding cyclone migrating northeastward across the Canadian Maritimes. Models suggest that the shallower leading edge of a significant cold intrusion trailing the cyclone will stall and undergo considerable modification across the southern Mid Atlantic, Tennessee Valley, Ozark Plateau and central Great Plains, into the lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys by late Thursday night. In the wake of a preceding front, relatively cool conditions appear likely to be maintained across much of the southeastern Great Plains into northern Gulf coast vicinity, beneath increasingly widespread mid/high-level cloudiness and associated light to moderate rain falling into an initially dry/potentially cool boundary layer. This will precede one notable short wave perturbation emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific (readily evident in current satellite imagery approaching Baja), and a remnant short wave perturbation forecast to emerge from the Southwest. There has been considerable spread evident in the various model output concerning the emerging remnants of the closed from the Southwest, as a persistent block inland of the Pacific coast breaks down. Guidance has trended notably more sheared with an initial perturbation forecast to accelerate east of southern Rockies through the Texas Panhandle region late Wednesday into early Thursday. But it still appears that a trailing perturbation may become better defined and accelerate eastward within stronger mid-level flow, across the Permian Basin/Texas Big Bend into the northwestern Gulf coast by 12Z Friday. Forcing associated with the trailing perturbation may contribute to a developing frontal wave across the upper Texas into Louisiana coastal plain, but guidance continues to suggest that this will remain weak through this period. ...Texas... It still appears that moderate boundary-layer CAPE will develop, in association with moistening beneath warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air across the lower into middle Texas coastal plain by early Thursday. However, the continued northward advection of this boundary-layer moisture, and associated destabilization, is now more unclear in latest model output. Forcing for ascent associated with the subtropical perturbation is generally forecast to reach middle into upper Texas coastal areas Thursday morning through midday, if not earlier. And it appears possible that this could support initially strong to severe thunderstorm development, including supercells, before convection consolidates into cluster and progresses offshore along a developing warm frontal zone across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. In the wake of this convection, daytime heating within at least a modestly moist boundary-layer probably will contribute to at least weak CAPE in a corridor from middle Texas coastal areas into the Interstate 35 corridor of central Texas. As the mid-level cold core (-18 to -20C) of the perturbation emanating from the Southwest overspreads this region Thursday evening, renewed vigorous thunderstorm development appears possible. Strong deep-layer shear may contribute to a risk for supercells initially, with at least some potential for the evolution of an organizing cluster overspreading the upper Texas into Louisiana coastal plain Thursday night. It is still possible that severe probabilities could be increased across parts of central into southeastern Texas in later outlooks, once the sub-synoptic developments become better resolved. ..Kerr.. 03/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central and southeast Texas into coastal Louisiana on Thursday. One or two organizing clusters could evolve, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Downstream of a blocking regime centered across the northeastern Pacific, it appears that split westerlies will continue to trend more zonal to the east of the Rockies, in the wake of a deep, occluding cyclone migrating northeastward across the Canadian Maritimes. Models suggest that the shallower leading edge of a significant cold intrusion trailing the cyclone will stall and undergo considerable modification across the southern Mid Atlantic, Tennessee Valley, Ozark Plateau and central Great Plains, into the lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys by late Thursday night. In the wake of a preceding front, relatively cool conditions appear likely to be maintained across much of the southeastern Great Plains into northern Gulf coast vicinity, beneath increasingly widespread mid/high-level cloudiness and associated light to moderate rain falling into an initially dry/potentially cool boundary layer. This will precede one notable short wave perturbation emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific (readily evident in current satellite imagery approaching Baja), and a remnant short wave perturbation forecast to emerge from the Southwest. There has been considerable spread evident in the various model output concerning the emerging remnants of the closed from the Southwest, as a persistent block inland of the Pacific coast breaks down. Guidance has trended notably more sheared with an initial perturbation forecast to accelerate east of southern Rockies through the Texas Panhandle region late Wednesday into early Thursday. But it still appears that a trailing perturbation may become better defined and accelerate eastward within stronger mid-level flow, across the Permian Basin/Texas Big Bend into the northwestern Gulf coast by 12Z Friday. Forcing associated with the trailing perturbation may contribute to a developing frontal wave across the upper Texas into Louisiana coastal plain, but guidance continues to suggest that this will remain weak through this period. ...Texas... It still appears that moderate boundary-layer CAPE will develop, in association with moistening beneath warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air across the lower into middle Texas coastal plain by early Thursday. However, the continued northward advection of this boundary-layer moisture, and associated destabilization, is now more unclear in latest model output. Forcing for ascent associated with the subtropical perturbation is generally forecast to reach middle into upper Texas coastal areas Thursday morning through midday, if not earlier. And it appears possible that this could support initially strong to severe thunderstorm development, including supercells, before convection consolidates into cluster and progresses offshore along a developing warm frontal zone across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. In the wake of this convection, daytime heating within at least a modestly moist boundary-layer probably will contribute to at least weak CAPE in a corridor from middle Texas coastal areas into the Interstate 35 corridor of central Texas. As the mid-level cold core (-18 to -20C) of the perturbation emanating from the Southwest overspreads this region Thursday evening, renewed vigorous thunderstorm development appears possible. Strong deep-layer shear may contribute to a risk for supercells initially, with at least some potential for the evolution of an organizing cluster overspreading the upper Texas into Louisiana coastal plain Thursday night. It is still possible that severe probabilities could be increased across parts of central into southeastern Texas in later outlooks, once the sub-synoptic developments become better resolved. ..Kerr.. 03/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central and southeast Texas into coastal Louisiana on Thursday. One or two organizing clusters could evolve, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Downstream of a blocking regime centered across the northeastern Pacific, it appears that split westerlies will continue to trend more zonal to the east of the Rockies, in the wake of a deep, occluding cyclone migrating northeastward across the Canadian Maritimes. Models suggest that the shallower leading edge of a significant cold intrusion trailing the cyclone will stall and undergo considerable modification across the southern Mid Atlantic, Tennessee Valley, Ozark Plateau and central Great Plains, into the lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys by late Thursday night. In the wake of a preceding front, relatively cool conditions appear likely to be maintained across much of the southeastern Great Plains into northern Gulf coast vicinity, beneath increasingly widespread mid/high-level cloudiness and associated light to moderate rain falling into an initially dry/potentially cool boundary layer. This will precede one notable short wave perturbation emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific (readily evident in current satellite imagery approaching Baja), and a remnant short wave perturbation forecast to emerge from the Southwest. There has been considerable spread evident in the various model output concerning the emerging remnants of the closed from the Southwest, as a persistent block inland of the Pacific coast breaks down. Guidance has trended notably more sheared with an initial perturbation forecast to accelerate east of southern Rockies through the Texas Panhandle region late Wednesday into early Thursday. But it still appears that a trailing perturbation may become better defined and accelerate eastward within stronger mid-level flow, across the Permian Basin/Texas Big Bend into the northwestern Gulf coast by 12Z Friday. Forcing associated with the trailing perturbation may contribute to a developing frontal wave across the upper Texas into Louisiana coastal plain, but guidance continues to suggest that this will remain weak through this period. ...Texas... It still appears that moderate boundary-layer CAPE will develop, in association with moistening beneath warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air across the lower into middle Texas coastal plain by early Thursday. However, the continued northward advection of this boundary-layer moisture, and associated destabilization, is now more unclear in latest model output. Forcing for ascent associated with the subtropical perturbation is generally forecast to reach middle into upper Texas coastal areas Thursday morning through midday, if not earlier. And it appears possible that this could support initially strong to severe thunderstorm development, including supercells, before convection consolidates into cluster and progresses offshore along a developing warm frontal zone across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. In the wake of this convection, daytime heating within at least a modestly moist boundary-layer probably will contribute to at least weak CAPE in a corridor from middle Texas coastal areas into the Interstate 35 corridor of central Texas. As the mid-level cold core (-18 to -20C) of the perturbation emanating from the Southwest overspreads this region Thursday evening, renewed vigorous thunderstorm development appears possible. Strong deep-layer shear may contribute to a risk for supercells initially, with at least some potential for the evolution of an organizing cluster overspreading the upper Texas into Louisiana coastal plain Thursday night. It is still possible that severe probabilities could be increased across parts of central into southeastern Texas in later outlooks, once the sub-synoptic developments become better resolved. ..Kerr.. 03/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central and southeast Texas into coastal Louisiana on Thursday. One or two organizing clusters could evolve, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Downstream of a blocking regime centered across the northeastern Pacific, it appears that split westerlies will continue to trend more zonal to the east of the Rockies, in the wake of a deep, occluding cyclone migrating northeastward across the Canadian Maritimes. Models suggest that the shallower leading edge of a significant cold intrusion trailing the cyclone will stall and undergo considerable modification across the southern Mid Atlantic, Tennessee Valley, Ozark Plateau and central Great Plains, into the lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys by late Thursday night. In the wake of a preceding front, relatively cool conditions appear likely to be maintained across much of the southeastern Great Plains into northern Gulf coast vicinity, beneath increasingly widespread mid/high-level cloudiness and associated light to moderate rain falling into an initially dry/potentially cool boundary layer. This will precede one notable short wave perturbation emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific (readily evident in current satellite imagery approaching Baja), and a remnant short wave perturbation forecast to emerge from the Southwest. There has been considerable spread evident in the various model output concerning the emerging remnants of the closed from the Southwest, as a persistent block inland of the Pacific coast breaks down. Guidance has trended notably more sheared with an initial perturbation forecast to accelerate east of southern Rockies through the Texas Panhandle region late Wednesday into early Thursday. But it still appears that a trailing perturbation may become better defined and accelerate eastward within stronger mid-level flow, across the Permian Basin/Texas Big Bend into the northwestern Gulf coast by 12Z Friday. Forcing associated with the trailing perturbation may contribute to a developing frontal wave across the upper Texas into Louisiana coastal plain, but guidance continues to suggest that this will remain weak through this period. ...Texas... It still appears that moderate boundary-layer CAPE will develop, in association with moistening beneath warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air across the lower into middle Texas coastal plain by early Thursday. However, the continued northward advection of this boundary-layer moisture, and associated destabilization, is now more unclear in latest model output. Forcing for ascent associated with the subtropical perturbation is generally forecast to reach middle into upper Texas coastal areas Thursday morning through midday, if not earlier. And it appears possible that this could support initially strong to severe thunderstorm development, including supercells, before convection consolidates into cluster and progresses offshore along a developing warm frontal zone across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. In the wake of this convection, daytime heating within at least a modestly moist boundary-layer probably will contribute to at least weak CAPE in a corridor from middle Texas coastal areas into the Interstate 35 corridor of central Texas. As the mid-level cold core (-18 to -20C) of the perturbation emanating from the Southwest overspreads this region Thursday evening, renewed vigorous thunderstorm development appears possible. Strong deep-layer shear may contribute to a risk for supercells initially, with at least some potential for the evolution of an organizing cluster overspreading the upper Texas into Louisiana coastal plain Thursday night. It is still possible that severe probabilities could be increased across parts of central into southeastern Texas in later outlooks, once the sub-synoptic developments become better resolved. ..Kerr.. 03/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central and southeast Texas into coastal Louisiana on Thursday. One or two organizing clusters could evolve, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Downstream of a blocking regime centered across the northeastern Pacific, it appears that split westerlies will continue to trend more zonal to the east of the Rockies, in the wake of a deep, occluding cyclone migrating northeastward across the Canadian Maritimes. Models suggest that the shallower leading edge of a significant cold intrusion trailing the cyclone will stall and undergo considerable modification across the southern Mid Atlantic, Tennessee Valley, Ozark Plateau and central Great Plains, into the lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys by late Thursday night. In the wake of a preceding front, relatively cool conditions appear likely to be maintained across much of the southeastern Great Plains into northern Gulf coast vicinity, beneath increasingly widespread mid/high-level cloudiness and associated light to moderate rain falling into an initially dry/potentially cool boundary layer. This will precede one notable short wave perturbation emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific (readily evident in current satellite imagery approaching Baja), and a remnant short wave perturbation forecast to emerge from the Southwest. There has been considerable spread evident in the various model output concerning the emerging remnants of the closed from the Southwest, as a persistent block inland of the Pacific coast breaks down. Guidance has trended notably more sheared with an initial perturbation forecast to accelerate east of southern Rockies through the Texas Panhandle region late Wednesday into early Thursday. But it still appears that a trailing perturbation may become better defined and accelerate eastward within stronger mid-level flow, across the Permian Basin/Texas Big Bend into the northwestern Gulf coast by 12Z Friday. Forcing associated with the trailing perturbation may contribute to a developing frontal wave across the upper Texas into Louisiana coastal plain, but guidance continues to suggest that this will remain weak through this period. ...Texas... It still appears that moderate boundary-layer CAPE will develop, in association with moistening beneath warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air across the lower into middle Texas coastal plain by early Thursday. However, the continued northward advection of this boundary-layer moisture, and associated destabilization, is now more unclear in latest model output. Forcing for ascent associated with the subtropical perturbation is generally forecast to reach middle into upper Texas coastal areas Thursday morning through midday, if not earlier. And it appears possible that this could support initially strong to severe thunderstorm development, including supercells, before convection consolidates into cluster and progresses offshore along a developing warm frontal zone across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. In the wake of this convection, daytime heating within at least a modestly moist boundary-layer probably will contribute to at least weak CAPE in a corridor from middle Texas coastal areas into the Interstate 35 corridor of central Texas. As the mid-level cold core (-18 to -20C) of the perturbation emanating from the Southwest overspreads this region Thursday evening, renewed vigorous thunderstorm development appears possible. Strong deep-layer shear may contribute to a risk for supercells initially, with at least some potential for the evolution of an organizing cluster overspreading the upper Texas into Louisiana coastal plain Thursday night. It is still possible that severe probabilities could be increased across parts of central into southeastern Texas in later outlooks, once the sub-synoptic developments become better resolved. ..Kerr.. 03/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few clusters of thunderstorms should develop across parts of Texas and western Oklahoma this afternoon through tonight. Some of this activity may pose a marginal hail or gusty wind risk. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream mid/upper-level jet will persist today over Mexico and the Gulf, along with the southern Plains into the Southeast. A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across NM and into west TX by this evening, while a separate perturbation develops across northern Mexico and south TX through late tonight. Surface high pressure centered over the Gulf and Southeast will hamper the northward advance of rich low-level moisture over much of TX through this afternoon, although limited moisture should be able to reach parts of the TX Panhandle and western OK along/east of a weak surface trough. Somewhat greater low-level moisture should eventually spread inland over portions of south/coastal TX late tonight into early Thursday morning. ...Texas Panhandle into Western Oklahoma... Even with weak surface cyclogenesis occurring over the southern High Plains today, low-level moisture will likely remain quite modest with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 40s to low 50s. Still, cold temperatures aloft (around -16 to -20C at 500 mb) and steep low/mid-level lapse rates should aid in the development of weak MLCAPE this afternoon as modest daytime heating occurs. Sufficient deep-layer shear owing to modestly enhanced mid-level winds should be in place to support some updraft organization with any convection that can form along/east of the surface trough. With lengthy mid/upper-level hodographs, some of these thunderstorms could produce small to marginally severe hail. A very well-mixed boundary layer should also foster an isolated threat for strong to severe downdraft winds. Limited moisture/instability are expected to keep the overall severe threat fairly marginal/isolated across this area. ...South/Coastal Texas... Low-level moisture will gradually increase this evening and overnight across parts of south/coastal TX. While a stout cap will likely suppress convection through much of the day, large-scale ascent preceding a southern-stream shortwave trough may eventually encourage isolated thunderstorms to develop late tonight. If this occurs, convection should tend to remain elevated. But with moderate MUCAPE and strong deep-layer shear, any thunderstorms that form and persist could produce severe hail. This threat appears rather conditional, with most high-resolution guidance suggesting that robust convective development will be delayed until around 09-12Z Thursday morning. ...Northeast... A strong mid/upper-level cyclone, with associated 70-90 kt mid-level jet, will be in place over much of the Great Lakes and Northeast today. A related surface low will develop eastward across southern Quebec through the day, while a secondary surface low deepens and quickly advances eastward in tandem with a cold front across coastal parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Most guidance shows minimal instability ahead of the front, but cold mid-level temperatures and modest diurnal heating may be enough to support the development of very weak boundary-layer instability. It remains questionable if any low-topped convection that develops will reach sufficient depths to produce lightning. Regardless, occasional strong/gusty winds may occur with this activity given the forecast strength of the low/mid-level flow. ..Gleason/Flournoy.. 03/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few clusters of thunderstorms should develop across parts of Texas and western Oklahoma this afternoon through tonight. Some of this activity may pose a marginal hail or gusty wind risk. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream mid/upper-level jet will persist today over Mexico and the Gulf, along with the southern Plains into the Southeast. A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across NM and into west TX by this evening, while a separate perturbation develops across northern Mexico and south TX through late tonight. Surface high pressure centered over the Gulf and Southeast will hamper the northward advance of rich low-level moisture over much of TX through this afternoon, although limited moisture should be able to reach parts of the TX Panhandle and western OK along/east of a weak surface trough. Somewhat greater low-level moisture should eventually spread inland over portions of south/coastal TX late tonight into early Thursday morning. ...Texas Panhandle into Western Oklahoma... Even with weak surface cyclogenesis occurring over the southern High Plains today, low-level moisture will likely remain quite modest with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 40s to low 50s. Still, cold temperatures aloft (around -16 to -20C at 500 mb) and steep low/mid-level lapse rates should aid in the development of weak MLCAPE this afternoon as modest daytime heating occurs. Sufficient deep-layer shear owing to modestly enhanced mid-level winds should be in place to support some updraft organization with any convection that can form along/east of the surface trough. With lengthy mid/upper-level hodographs, some of these thunderstorms could produce small to marginally severe hail. A very well-mixed boundary layer should also foster an isolated threat for strong to severe downdraft winds. Limited moisture/instability are expected to keep the overall severe threat fairly marginal/isolated across this area. ...South/Coastal Texas... Low-level moisture will gradually increase this evening and overnight across parts of south/coastal TX. While a stout cap will likely suppress convection through much of the day, large-scale ascent preceding a southern-stream shortwave trough may eventually encourage isolated thunderstorms to develop late tonight. If this occurs, convection should tend to remain elevated. But with moderate MUCAPE and strong deep-layer shear, any thunderstorms that form and persist could produce severe hail. This threat appears rather conditional, with most high-resolution guidance suggesting that robust convective development will be delayed until around 09-12Z Thursday morning. ...Northeast... A strong mid/upper-level cyclone, with associated 70-90 kt mid-level jet, will be in place over much of the Great Lakes and Northeast today. A related surface low will develop eastward across southern Quebec through the day, while a secondary surface low deepens and quickly advances eastward in tandem with a cold front across coastal parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Most guidance shows minimal instability ahead of the front, but cold mid-level temperatures and modest diurnal heating may be enough to support the development of very weak boundary-layer instability. It remains questionable if any low-topped convection that develops will reach sufficient depths to produce lightning. Regardless, occasional strong/gusty winds may occur with this activity given the forecast strength of the low/mid-level flow. ..Gleason/Flournoy.. 03/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few clusters of thunderstorms should develop across parts of Texas and western Oklahoma this afternoon through tonight. Some of this activity may pose a marginal hail or gusty wind risk. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream mid/upper-level jet will persist today over Mexico and the Gulf, along with the southern Plains into the Southeast. A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across NM and into west TX by this evening, while a separate perturbation develops across northern Mexico and south TX through late tonight. Surface high pressure centered over the Gulf and Southeast will hamper the northward advance of rich low-level moisture over much of TX through this afternoon, although limited moisture should be able to reach parts of the TX Panhandle and western OK along/east of a weak surface trough. Somewhat greater low-level moisture should eventually spread inland over portions of south/coastal TX late tonight into early Thursday morning. ...Texas Panhandle into Western Oklahoma... Even with weak surface cyclogenesis occurring over the southern High Plains today, low-level moisture will likely remain quite modest with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 40s to low 50s. Still, cold temperatures aloft (around -16 to -20C at 500 mb) and steep low/mid-level lapse rates should aid in the development of weak MLCAPE this afternoon as modest daytime heating occurs. Sufficient deep-layer shear owing to modestly enhanced mid-level winds should be in place to support some updraft organization with any convection that can form along/east of the surface trough. With lengthy mid/upper-level hodographs, some of these thunderstorms could produce small to marginally severe hail. A very well-mixed boundary layer should also foster an isolated threat for strong to severe downdraft winds. Limited moisture/instability are expected to keep the overall severe threat fairly marginal/isolated across this area. ...South/Coastal Texas... Low-level moisture will gradually increase this evening and overnight across parts of south/coastal TX. While a stout cap will likely suppress convection through much of the day, large-scale ascent preceding a southern-stream shortwave trough may eventually encourage isolated thunderstorms to develop late tonight. If this occurs, convection should tend to remain elevated. But with moderate MUCAPE and strong deep-layer shear, any thunderstorms that form and persist could produce severe hail. This threat appears rather conditional, with most high-resolution guidance suggesting that robust convective development will be delayed until around 09-12Z Thursday morning. ...Northeast... A strong mid/upper-level cyclone, with associated 70-90 kt mid-level jet, will be in place over much of the Great Lakes and Northeast today. A related surface low will develop eastward across southern Quebec through the day, while a secondary surface low deepens and quickly advances eastward in tandem with a cold front across coastal parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Most guidance shows minimal instability ahead of the front, but cold mid-level temperatures and modest diurnal heating may be enough to support the development of very weak boundary-layer instability. It remains questionable if any low-topped convection that develops will reach sufficient depths to produce lightning. Regardless, occasional strong/gusty winds may occur with this activity given the forecast strength of the low/mid-level flow. ..Gleason/Flournoy.. 03/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few clusters of thunderstorms should develop across parts of Texas and western Oklahoma this afternoon through tonight. Some of this activity may pose a marginal hail or gusty wind risk. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream mid/upper-level jet will persist today over Mexico and the Gulf, along with the southern Plains into the Southeast. A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across NM and into west TX by this evening, while a separate perturbation develops across northern Mexico and south TX through late tonight. Surface high pressure centered over the Gulf and Southeast will hamper the northward advance of rich low-level moisture over much of TX through this afternoon, although limited moisture should be able to reach parts of the TX Panhandle and western OK along/east of a weak surface trough. Somewhat greater low-level moisture should eventually spread inland over portions of south/coastal TX late tonight into early Thursday morning. ...Texas Panhandle into Western Oklahoma... Even with weak surface cyclogenesis occurring over the southern High Plains today, low-level moisture will likely remain quite modest with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 40s to low 50s. Still, cold temperatures aloft (around -16 to -20C at 500 mb) and steep low/mid-level lapse rates should aid in the development of weak MLCAPE this afternoon as modest daytime heating occurs. Sufficient deep-layer shear owing to modestly enhanced mid-level winds should be in place to support some updraft organization with any convection that can form along/east of the surface trough. With lengthy mid/upper-level hodographs, some of these thunderstorms could produce small to marginally severe hail. A very well-mixed boundary layer should also foster an isolated threat for strong to severe downdraft winds. Limited moisture/instability are expected to keep the overall severe threat fairly marginal/isolated across this area. ...South/Coastal Texas... Low-level moisture will gradually increase this evening and overnight across parts of south/coastal TX. While a stout cap will likely suppress convection through much of the day, large-scale ascent preceding a southern-stream shortwave trough may eventually encourage isolated thunderstorms to develop late tonight. If this occurs, convection should tend to remain elevated. But with moderate MUCAPE and strong deep-layer shear, any thunderstorms that form and persist could produce severe hail. This threat appears rather conditional, with most high-resolution guidance suggesting that robust convective development will be delayed until around 09-12Z Thursday morning. ...Northeast... A strong mid/upper-level cyclone, with associated 70-90 kt mid-level jet, will be in place over much of the Great Lakes and Northeast today. A related surface low will develop eastward across southern Quebec through the day, while a secondary surface low deepens and quickly advances eastward in tandem with a cold front across coastal parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Most guidance shows minimal instability ahead of the front, but cold mid-level temperatures and modest diurnal heating may be enough to support the development of very weak boundary-layer instability. It remains questionable if any low-topped convection that develops will reach sufficient depths to produce lightning. Regardless, occasional strong/gusty winds may occur with this activity given the forecast strength of the low/mid-level flow. ..Gleason/Flournoy.. 03/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few clusters of thunderstorms should develop across parts of Texas and western Oklahoma this afternoon through tonight. Some of this activity may pose a marginal hail or gusty wind risk. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream mid/upper-level jet will persist today over Mexico and the Gulf, along with the southern Plains into the Southeast. A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across NM and into west TX by this evening, while a separate perturbation develops across northern Mexico and south TX through late tonight. Surface high pressure centered over the Gulf and Southeast will hamper the northward advance of rich low-level moisture over much of TX through this afternoon, although limited moisture should be able to reach parts of the TX Panhandle and western OK along/east of a weak surface trough. Somewhat greater low-level moisture should eventually spread inland over portions of south/coastal TX late tonight into early Thursday morning. ...Texas Panhandle into Western Oklahoma... Even with weak surface cyclogenesis occurring over the southern High Plains today, low-level moisture will likely remain quite modest with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 40s to low 50s. Still, cold temperatures aloft (around -16 to -20C at 500 mb) and steep low/mid-level lapse rates should aid in the development of weak MLCAPE this afternoon as modest daytime heating occurs. Sufficient deep-layer shear owing to modestly enhanced mid-level winds should be in place to support some updraft organization with any convection that can form along/east of the surface trough. With lengthy mid/upper-level hodographs, some of these thunderstorms could produce small to marginally severe hail. A very well-mixed boundary layer should also foster an isolated threat for strong to severe downdraft winds. Limited moisture/instability are expected to keep the overall severe threat fairly marginal/isolated across this area. ...South/Coastal Texas... Low-level moisture will gradually increase this evening and overnight across parts of south/coastal TX. While a stout cap will likely suppress convection through much of the day, large-scale ascent preceding a southern-stream shortwave trough may eventually encourage isolated thunderstorms to develop late tonight. If this occurs, convection should tend to remain elevated. But with moderate MUCAPE and strong deep-layer shear, any thunderstorms that form and persist could produce severe hail. This threat appears rather conditional, with most high-resolution guidance suggesting that robust convective development will be delayed until around 09-12Z Thursday morning. ...Northeast... A strong mid/upper-level cyclone, with associated 70-90 kt mid-level jet, will be in place over much of the Great Lakes and Northeast today. A related surface low will develop eastward across southern Quebec through the day, while a secondary surface low deepens and quickly advances eastward in tandem with a cold front across coastal parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Most guidance shows minimal instability ahead of the front, but cold mid-level temperatures and modest diurnal heating may be enough to support the development of very weak boundary-layer instability. It remains questionable if any low-topped convection that develops will reach sufficient depths to produce lightning. Regardless, occasional strong/gusty winds may occur with this activity given the forecast strength of the low/mid-level flow. ..Gleason/Flournoy.. 03/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few clusters of thunderstorms should develop across parts of Texas and western Oklahoma this afternoon through tonight. Some of this activity may pose a marginal hail or gusty wind risk. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream mid/upper-level jet will persist today over Mexico and the Gulf, along with the southern Plains into the Southeast. A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across NM and into west TX by this evening, while a separate perturbation develops across northern Mexico and south TX through late tonight. Surface high pressure centered over the Gulf and Southeast will hamper the northward advance of rich low-level moisture over much of TX through this afternoon, although limited moisture should be able to reach parts of the TX Panhandle and western OK along/east of a weak surface trough. Somewhat greater low-level moisture should eventually spread inland over portions of south/coastal TX late tonight into early Thursday morning. ...Texas Panhandle into Western Oklahoma... Even with weak surface cyclogenesis occurring over the southern High Plains today, low-level moisture will likely remain quite modest with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 40s to low 50s. Still, cold temperatures aloft (around -16 to -20C at 500 mb) and steep low/mid-level lapse rates should aid in the development of weak MLCAPE this afternoon as modest daytime heating occurs. Sufficient deep-layer shear owing to modestly enhanced mid-level winds should be in place to support some updraft organization with any convection that can form along/east of the surface trough. With lengthy mid/upper-level hodographs, some of these thunderstorms could produce small to marginally severe hail. A very well-mixed boundary layer should also foster an isolated threat for strong to severe downdraft winds. Limited moisture/instability are expected to keep the overall severe threat fairly marginal/isolated across this area. ...South/Coastal Texas... Low-level moisture will gradually increase this evening and overnight across parts of south/coastal TX. While a stout cap will likely suppress convection through much of the day, large-scale ascent preceding a southern-stream shortwave trough may eventually encourage isolated thunderstorms to develop late tonight. If this occurs, convection should tend to remain elevated. But with moderate MUCAPE and strong deep-layer shear, any thunderstorms that form and persist could produce severe hail. This threat appears rather conditional, with most high-resolution guidance suggesting that robust convective development will be delayed until around 09-12Z Thursday morning. ...Northeast... A strong mid/upper-level cyclone, with associated 70-90 kt mid-level jet, will be in place over much of the Great Lakes and Northeast today. A related surface low will develop eastward across southern Quebec through the day, while a secondary surface low deepens and quickly advances eastward in tandem with a cold front across coastal parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Most guidance shows minimal instability ahead of the front, but cold mid-level temperatures and modest diurnal heating may be enough to support the development of very weak boundary-layer instability. It remains questionable if any low-topped convection that develops will reach sufficient depths to produce lightning. Regardless, occasional strong/gusty winds may occur with this activity given the forecast strength of the low/mid-level flow. ..Gleason/Flournoy.. 03/20/2024 Read more