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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few clusters of thunderstorms should develop across parts of Texas and western Oklahoma this afternoon through tonight. Some of this activity may pose a marginal hail or gusty wind risk. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream mid/upper-level jet will persist today over Mexico and the Gulf, along with the southern Plains into the Southeast. A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across NM and into west TX by this evening, while a separate perturbation develops across northern Mexico and south TX through late tonight. Surface high pressure centered over the Gulf and Southeast will hamper the northward advance of rich low-level moisture over much of TX through this afternoon, although limited moisture should be able to reach parts of the TX Panhandle and western OK along/east of a weak surface trough. Somewhat greater low-level moisture should eventually spread inland over portions of south/coastal TX late tonight into early Thursday morning. ...Texas Panhandle into Western Oklahoma... Even with weak surface cyclogenesis occurring over the southern High Plains today, low-level moisture will likely remain quite modest with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 40s to low 50s. Still, cold temperatures aloft (around -16 to -20C at 500 mb) and steep low/mid-level lapse rates should aid in the development of weak MLCAPE this afternoon as modest daytime heating occurs. Sufficient deep-layer shear owing to modestly enhanced mid-level winds should be in place to support some updraft organization with any convection that can form along/east of the surface trough. With lengthy mid/upper-level hodographs, some of these thunderstorms could produce small to marginally severe hail. A very well-mixed boundary layer should also foster an isolated threat for strong to severe downdraft winds. Limited moisture/instability are expected to keep the overall severe threat fairly marginal/isolated across this area. ...South/Coastal Texas... Low-level moisture will gradually increase this evening and overnight across parts of south/coastal TX. While a stout cap will likely suppress convection through much of the day, large-scale ascent preceding a southern-stream shortwave trough may eventually encourage isolated thunderstorms to develop late tonight. If this occurs, convection should tend to remain elevated. But with moderate MUCAPE and strong deep-layer shear, any thunderstorms that form and persist could produce severe hail. This threat appears rather conditional, with most high-resolution guidance suggesting that robust convective development will be delayed until around 09-12Z Thursday morning. ...Northeast... A strong mid/upper-level cyclone, with associated 70-90 kt mid-level jet, will be in place over much of the Great Lakes and Northeast today. A related surface low will develop eastward across southern Quebec through the day, while a secondary surface low deepens and quickly advances eastward in tandem with a cold front across coastal parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Most guidance shows minimal instability ahead of the front, but cold mid-level temperatures and modest diurnal heating may be enough to support the development of very weak boundary-layer instability. It remains questionable if any low-topped convection that develops will reach sufficient depths to produce lightning. Regardless, occasional strong/gusty winds may occur with this activity given the forecast strength of the low/mid-level flow. ..Gleason/Flournoy.. 03/20/2024 Read more

The drought emergency declared for 12 watersheds in July 2023 remained in effect and was to expire June 30, 2024. October through December, the first quarter of the water year, was the sixth driest in Washington history, tied with 1933. December 2023 was the third warmest December on record for Washington state. Department of Ecology, State of Washington, Feb 1, 2024 A drought emergency was declared for parts of 12 Washington counties by the state Department of Ecology as dry weather persisted. In Whatcom County in the Nooksack River Basin, three water systems near Ferndale were dealing with dry or nearly dry wells, affecting about 350 water customers. Baker View Water System was hauling water via truck because wells had run dry. Aldergrove Water Association has to have its wells deepened as pumps were not drawing water or were barely able to draw water. Mountain View Water Association had to open an emergency intertie with Ferndale. The Bellingham Herald (Wash.), July 24, 2023

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...01Z Update... Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible mainly early this evening across parts of AZ/NM, in close proximity to an upper low and cold mid-level temperatures over the Southwest. With the loss of daytime heating and gradual lessening of weak instability, overall thunderstorm potential should slowly decrease tonight. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Gleason.. 03/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...01Z Update... Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible mainly early this evening across parts of AZ/NM, in close proximity to an upper low and cold mid-level temperatures over the Southwest. With the loss of daytime heating and gradual lessening of weak instability, overall thunderstorm potential should slowly decrease tonight. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Gleason.. 03/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...01Z Update... Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible mainly early this evening across parts of AZ/NM, in close proximity to an upper low and cold mid-level temperatures over the Southwest. With the loss of daytime heating and gradual lessening of weak instability, overall thunderstorm potential should slowly decrease tonight. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Gleason.. 03/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...01Z Update... Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible mainly early this evening across parts of AZ/NM, in close proximity to an upper low and cold mid-level temperatures over the Southwest. With the loss of daytime heating and gradual lessening of weak instability, overall thunderstorm potential should slowly decrease tonight. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Gleason.. 03/20/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Mar 19 23:58:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Mar 19 23:58:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Fire weather concerns will be fairly limited through the end of the work week before increasing late this weekend into early next week across parts of the southern High Plains. The upper low currently meandering across the Southwest will gradually migrate into the southern Plains and Southeast over the next few days. This will introduce rain chances across much of the southern and eastern CONUS that should limit fire concerns for most locations outside of the southern High Plains. ...D6/Sunday - Southern High Plains... ERCs across west/southwest TX into eastern NM are currently near seasonal normal values, but should gradually increase over the next several days amid dry and warm conditions (temperatures should climb into the 75-90th percentile range for late March later this week). Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in the development of a robust shortwave trough over the western CONUS by the D5/Sat to D6/Sun time frame. This feature is generally expected to move into the southern Rockies/southern Plains during the Sun/Mon period with the development of a lee cyclone over southeast CO/southwest KS by Sunday evening. Although ensemble cluster analyses hint that discrepancies regarding the exact timing of the upper wave persist among ensemble members, the run-to-run trend has been towards a stronger lee cyclone. In turn, this has yielded higher confidence in breezy gradient winds over the southern High Plains. The downslope flow regime should promote a swath of dry, windy conditions behind a sharpening dryline. Given this trend, and the overall synoptic regime, which is typical of critical fire weather regimes for this region, a 40% risk area has been introduced. Further refinements are expected as guidance comes into better agreement regarding surface features, and fire concerns may persist into D7/Mon and D8/Tues depending on the evolution of the synoptic wave. ..Moore.. 03/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Fire weather concerns will be fairly limited through the end of the work week before increasing late this weekend into early next week across parts of the southern High Plains. The upper low currently meandering across the Southwest will gradually migrate into the southern Plains and Southeast over the next few days. This will introduce rain chances across much of the southern and eastern CONUS that should limit fire concerns for most locations outside of the southern High Plains. ...D6/Sunday - Southern High Plains... ERCs across west/southwest TX into eastern NM are currently near seasonal normal values, but should gradually increase over the next several days amid dry and warm conditions (temperatures should climb into the 75-90th percentile range for late March later this week). Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in the development of a robust shortwave trough over the western CONUS by the D5/Sat to D6/Sun time frame. This feature is generally expected to move into the southern Rockies/southern Plains during the Sun/Mon period with the development of a lee cyclone over southeast CO/southwest KS by Sunday evening. Although ensemble cluster analyses hint that discrepancies regarding the exact timing of the upper wave persist among ensemble members, the run-to-run trend has been towards a stronger lee cyclone. In turn, this has yielded higher confidence in breezy gradient winds over the southern High Plains. The downslope flow regime should promote a swath of dry, windy conditions behind a sharpening dryline. Given this trend, and the overall synoptic regime, which is typical of critical fire weather regimes for this region, a 40% risk area has been introduced. Further refinements are expected as guidance comes into better agreement regarding surface features, and fire concerns may persist into D7/Mon and D8/Tues depending on the evolution of the synoptic wave. ..Moore.. 03/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Fire weather concerns will be fairly limited through the end of the work week before increasing late this weekend into early next week across parts of the southern High Plains. The upper low currently meandering across the Southwest will gradually migrate into the southern Plains and Southeast over the next few days. This will introduce rain chances across much of the southern and eastern CONUS that should limit fire concerns for most locations outside of the southern High Plains. ...D6/Sunday - Southern High Plains... ERCs across west/southwest TX into eastern NM are currently near seasonal normal values, but should gradually increase over the next several days amid dry and warm conditions (temperatures should climb into the 75-90th percentile range for late March later this week). Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in the development of a robust shortwave trough over the western CONUS by the D5/Sat to D6/Sun time frame. This feature is generally expected to move into the southern Rockies/southern Plains during the Sun/Mon period with the development of a lee cyclone over southeast CO/southwest KS by Sunday evening. Although ensemble cluster analyses hint that discrepancies regarding the exact timing of the upper wave persist among ensemble members, the run-to-run trend has been towards a stronger lee cyclone. In turn, this has yielded higher confidence in breezy gradient winds over the southern High Plains. The downslope flow regime should promote a swath of dry, windy conditions behind a sharpening dryline. Given this trend, and the overall synoptic regime, which is typical of critical fire weather regimes for this region, a 40% risk area has been introduced. Further refinements are expected as guidance comes into better agreement regarding surface features, and fire concerns may persist into D7/Mon and D8/Tues depending on the evolution of the synoptic wave. ..Moore.. 03/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Fire weather concerns will be fairly limited through the end of the work week before increasing late this weekend into early next week across parts of the southern High Plains. The upper low currently meandering across the Southwest will gradually migrate into the southern Plains and Southeast over the next few days. This will introduce rain chances across much of the southern and eastern CONUS that should limit fire concerns for most locations outside of the southern High Plains. ...D6/Sunday - Southern High Plains... ERCs across west/southwest TX into eastern NM are currently near seasonal normal values, but should gradually increase over the next several days amid dry and warm conditions (temperatures should climb into the 75-90th percentile range for late March later this week). Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in the development of a robust shortwave trough over the western CONUS by the D5/Sat to D6/Sun time frame. This feature is generally expected to move into the southern Rockies/southern Plains during the Sun/Mon period with the development of a lee cyclone over southeast CO/southwest KS by Sunday evening. Although ensemble cluster analyses hint that discrepancies regarding the exact timing of the upper wave persist among ensemble members, the run-to-run trend has been towards a stronger lee cyclone. In turn, this has yielded higher confidence in breezy gradient winds over the southern High Plains. The downslope flow regime should promote a swath of dry, windy conditions behind a sharpening dryline. Given this trend, and the overall synoptic regime, which is typical of critical fire weather regimes for this region, a 40% risk area has been introduced. Further refinements are expected as guidance comes into better agreement regarding surface features, and fire concerns may persist into D7/Mon and D8/Tues depending on the evolution of the synoptic wave. ..Moore.. 03/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Fire weather concerns will be fairly limited through the end of the work week before increasing late this weekend into early next week across parts of the southern High Plains. The upper low currently meandering across the Southwest will gradually migrate into the southern Plains and Southeast over the next few days. This will introduce rain chances across much of the southern and eastern CONUS that should limit fire concerns for most locations outside of the southern High Plains. ...D6/Sunday - Southern High Plains... ERCs across west/southwest TX into eastern NM are currently near seasonal normal values, but should gradually increase over the next several days amid dry and warm conditions (temperatures should climb into the 75-90th percentile range for late March later this week). Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in the development of a robust shortwave trough over the western CONUS by the D5/Sat to D6/Sun time frame. This feature is generally expected to move into the southern Rockies/southern Plains during the Sun/Mon period with the development of a lee cyclone over southeast CO/southwest KS by Sunday evening. Although ensemble cluster analyses hint that discrepancies regarding the exact timing of the upper wave persist among ensemble members, the run-to-run trend has been towards a stronger lee cyclone. In turn, this has yielded higher confidence in breezy gradient winds over the southern High Plains. The downslope flow regime should promote a swath of dry, windy conditions behind a sharpening dryline. Given this trend, and the overall synoptic regime, which is typical of critical fire weather regimes for this region, a 40% risk area has been introduced. Further refinements are expected as guidance comes into better agreement regarding surface features, and fire concerns may persist into D7/Mon and D8/Tues depending on the evolution of the synoptic wave. ..Moore.. 03/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Fire weather concerns will be fairly limited through the end of the work week before increasing late this weekend into early next week across parts of the southern High Plains. The upper low currently meandering across the Southwest will gradually migrate into the southern Plains and Southeast over the next few days. This will introduce rain chances across much of the southern and eastern CONUS that should limit fire concerns for most locations outside of the southern High Plains. ...D6/Sunday - Southern High Plains... ERCs across west/southwest TX into eastern NM are currently near seasonal normal values, but should gradually increase over the next several days amid dry and warm conditions (temperatures should climb into the 75-90th percentile range for late March later this week). Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in the development of a robust shortwave trough over the western CONUS by the D5/Sat to D6/Sun time frame. This feature is generally expected to move into the southern Rockies/southern Plains during the Sun/Mon period with the development of a lee cyclone over southeast CO/southwest KS by Sunday evening. Although ensemble cluster analyses hint that discrepancies regarding the exact timing of the upper wave persist among ensemble members, the run-to-run trend has been towards a stronger lee cyclone. In turn, this has yielded higher confidence in breezy gradient winds over the southern High Plains. The downslope flow regime should promote a swath of dry, windy conditions behind a sharpening dryline. Given this trend, and the overall synoptic regime, which is typical of critical fire weather regimes for this region, a 40% risk area has been introduced. Further refinements are expected as guidance comes into better agreement regarding surface features, and fire concerns may persist into D7/Mon and D8/Tues depending on the evolution of the synoptic wave. ..Moore.. 03/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Fire weather concerns will be fairly limited through the end of the work week before increasing late this weekend into early next week across parts of the southern High Plains. The upper low currently meandering across the Southwest will gradually migrate into the southern Plains and Southeast over the next few days. This will introduce rain chances across much of the southern and eastern CONUS that should limit fire concerns for most locations outside of the southern High Plains. ...D6/Sunday - Southern High Plains... ERCs across west/southwest TX into eastern NM are currently near seasonal normal values, but should gradually increase over the next several days amid dry and warm conditions (temperatures should climb into the 75-90th percentile range for late March later this week). Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in the development of a robust shortwave trough over the western CONUS by the D5/Sat to D6/Sun time frame. This feature is generally expected to move into the southern Rockies/southern Plains during the Sun/Mon period with the development of a lee cyclone over southeast CO/southwest KS by Sunday evening. Although ensemble cluster analyses hint that discrepancies regarding the exact timing of the upper wave persist among ensemble members, the run-to-run trend has been towards a stronger lee cyclone. In turn, this has yielded higher confidence in breezy gradient winds over the southern High Plains. The downslope flow regime should promote a swath of dry, windy conditions behind a sharpening dryline. Given this trend, and the overall synoptic regime, which is typical of critical fire weather regimes for this region, a 40% risk area has been introduced. Further refinements are expected as guidance comes into better agreement regarding surface features, and fire concerns may persist into D7/Mon and D8/Tues depending on the evolution of the synoptic wave. ..Moore.. 03/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. No changes were required for the 20Z update, with only general thunderstorms expected across the Southwest. ..Jewell.. 03/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A closed midlevel low will move gradually eastward across the Southwest through the period, while associated weak DCVA overspreads the region. This large-scale ascent will promote scattered diurnal thunderstorms, given cold temperatures aloft/steepening deep-layer lapse rates. On the backside of the closed midlevel low, diurnal heating and the steep midlevel lapse rates will also support isolated thunderstorms across parts of southern CA into the Sierra -- largely driven by orographic lift/terrain circulations. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. No changes were required for the 20Z update, with only general thunderstorms expected across the Southwest. ..Jewell.. 03/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A closed midlevel low will move gradually eastward across the Southwest through the period, while associated weak DCVA overspreads the region. This large-scale ascent will promote scattered diurnal thunderstorms, given cold temperatures aloft/steepening deep-layer lapse rates. On the backside of the closed midlevel low, diurnal heating and the steep midlevel lapse rates will also support isolated thunderstorms across parts of southern CA into the Sierra -- largely driven by orographic lift/terrain circulations. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. No changes were required for the 20Z update, with only general thunderstorms expected across the Southwest. ..Jewell.. 03/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A closed midlevel low will move gradually eastward across the Southwest through the period, while associated weak DCVA overspreads the region. This large-scale ascent will promote scattered diurnal thunderstorms, given cold temperatures aloft/steepening deep-layer lapse rates. On the backside of the closed midlevel low, diurnal heating and the steep midlevel lapse rates will also support isolated thunderstorms across parts of southern CA into the Sierra -- largely driven by orographic lift/terrain circulations. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. No changes were required for the 20Z update, with only general thunderstorms expected across the Southwest. ..Jewell.. 03/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A closed midlevel low will move gradually eastward across the Southwest through the period, while associated weak DCVA overspreads the region. This large-scale ascent will promote scattered diurnal thunderstorms, given cold temperatures aloft/steepening deep-layer lapse rates. On the backside of the closed midlevel low, diurnal heating and the steep midlevel lapse rates will also support isolated thunderstorms across parts of southern CA into the Sierra -- largely driven by orographic lift/terrain circulations. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. No changes were required for the 20Z update, with only general thunderstorms expected across the Southwest. ..Jewell.. 03/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A closed midlevel low will move gradually eastward across the Southwest through the period, while associated weak DCVA overspreads the region. This large-scale ascent will promote scattered diurnal thunderstorms, given cold temperatures aloft/steepening deep-layer lapse rates. On the backside of the closed midlevel low, diurnal heating and the steep midlevel lapse rates will also support isolated thunderstorms across parts of southern CA into the Sierra -- largely driven by orographic lift/terrain circulations. Read more