Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... The medium-range models continue to forecast the development of an upper-level low across the Desert Southwest on Monday. The low is forecast to move eastward across the southwestern states on Tuesday and into the southern Plains on Wednesday. During this period, mid-level flow is forecast to be southwesterly across the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. As the system approaches, low-level moisture will return northward into the southern Plains, and moderate instability/deep-layer shear will likely be in place from central, east and north Texas eastward into the Louisiana. This will be the favored area for severe thunderstorm development from Monday afternoon to Tuesday night. On Wednesday, the upper-level low, and an associated cold front, is forecast to move through the southern Plains. Ahead of the front, low-level moisture is expected to be maximized from east Texas eastward to the central Gulf Coast. Some models, including the ECMWF and GFS, show potential for the development of a large MCS across the lower Mississippi Valley. These solutions suggest that instability and deep-layer shear will support a severe threat Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... On Thursday and Friday, the upper-level system is forecast to move eastward from the Ark-La-Tex to the southern Appalachians. Ahead of the system, a moist airmass is expected to be in place from the Gulf Coast states and Tennessee Valley eastward to the southern Atlantic Seaboard. As a cold front moves eastward across the Southeast, thunderstorm development may take place along and ahead of the front during the afternoon and evening on Thursday and Friday. Instability and deep-layer shear is forecast to be strong enough to support a severe threat. However, there is considerable uncertainty at this range in the Day to 4 to 8 period, concerning the timing of the upper-level trough and positioning of the cold front. For this reason, predictability remains too low to add a severe threat at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... The medium-range models continue to forecast the development of an upper-level low across the Desert Southwest on Monday. The low is forecast to move eastward across the southwestern states on Tuesday and into the southern Plains on Wednesday. During this period, mid-level flow is forecast to be southwesterly across the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. As the system approaches, low-level moisture will return northward into the southern Plains, and moderate instability/deep-layer shear will likely be in place from central, east and north Texas eastward into the Louisiana. This will be the favored area for severe thunderstorm development from Monday afternoon to Tuesday night. On Wednesday, the upper-level low, and an associated cold front, is forecast to move through the southern Plains. Ahead of the front, low-level moisture is expected to be maximized from east Texas eastward to the central Gulf Coast. Some models, including the ECMWF and GFS, show potential for the development of a large MCS across the lower Mississippi Valley. These solutions suggest that instability and deep-layer shear will support a severe threat Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... On Thursday and Friday, the upper-level system is forecast to move eastward from the Ark-La-Tex to the southern Appalachians. Ahead of the system, a moist airmass is expected to be in place from the Gulf Coast states and Tennessee Valley eastward to the southern Atlantic Seaboard. As a cold front moves eastward across the Southeast, thunderstorm development may take place along and ahead of the front during the afternoon and evening on Thursday and Friday. Instability and deep-layer shear is forecast to be strong enough to support a severe threat. However, there is considerable uncertainty at this range in the Day to 4 to 8 period, concerning the timing of the upper-level trough and positioning of the cold front. For this reason, predictability remains too low to add a severe threat at this time. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts will be possible on Sunday from the lower to mid Mississippi Valley eastward into western parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Hail could also occur in parts of the mid Mississippi Valley. ...Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley/Western Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... An upper-level low is forecast to move eastward into the mid Missouri Valley on Sunday, as a mid-level trough moves eastward into the Ozarks. At the surface, a low is forecast to move into the mid Missouri Valley, as a warm front advances northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Along the warm front, a narrow corridor of low-level moisture will be in place, with the moist axis extending southeastward, and then southward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the 50s F along much of this moist axis. Thunderstorms are expected to form near the moist axis during the afternoon, along the leading edge of a band of strong large-scale ascent. Forecast soundings near the moist axis at 21Z Sunday suggest that MUCAPE will be around 500 J/kg, and that 0-6 km shear will be in the 60 to 70 knot range. 0-3 km lapse are forecast to be near 7.5 C/km. This environment should support marginally severe gusts as cells move eastward toward the lower Ohio and western Tennessee Valley during the late afternoon and early evening. Hail will also be possible, especially where buoyancy is greatest. Further south-southwest, surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the lower to mid 60s F across much of the lower Mississippi Valley. Surface heating and low-level convergence near the moist axis should result in isolated convective initiation. Weak instability is expected to develop, with MUCAPE generally peaking in the 500 to 750 J/kg range. This, along with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, and steep low-level lapse rates should be enough for marginally severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 04/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts will be possible on Sunday from the lower to mid Mississippi Valley eastward into western parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Hail could also occur in parts of the mid Mississippi Valley. ...Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley/Western Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... An upper-level low is forecast to move eastward into the mid Missouri Valley on Sunday, as a mid-level trough moves eastward into the Ozarks. At the surface, a low is forecast to move into the mid Missouri Valley, as a warm front advances northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Along the warm front, a narrow corridor of low-level moisture will be in place, with the moist axis extending southeastward, and then southward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the 50s F along much of this moist axis. Thunderstorms are expected to form near the moist axis during the afternoon, along the leading edge of a band of strong large-scale ascent. Forecast soundings near the moist axis at 21Z Sunday suggest that MUCAPE will be around 500 J/kg, and that 0-6 km shear will be in the 60 to 70 knot range. 0-3 km lapse are forecast to be near 7.5 C/km. This environment should support marginally severe gusts as cells move eastward toward the lower Ohio and western Tennessee Valley during the late afternoon and early evening. Hail will also be possible, especially where buoyancy is greatest. Further south-southwest, surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the lower to mid 60s F across much of the lower Mississippi Valley. Surface heating and low-level convergence near the moist axis should result in isolated convective initiation. Weak instability is expected to develop, with MUCAPE generally peaking in the 500 to 750 J/kg range. This, along with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, and steep low-level lapse rates should be enough for marginally severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 04/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts will be possible on Sunday from the lower to mid Mississippi Valley eastward into western parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Hail could also occur in parts of the mid Mississippi Valley. ...Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley/Western Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... An upper-level low is forecast to move eastward into the mid Missouri Valley on Sunday, as a mid-level trough moves eastward into the Ozarks. At the surface, a low is forecast to move into the mid Missouri Valley, as a warm front advances northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Along the warm front, a narrow corridor of low-level moisture will be in place, with the moist axis extending southeastward, and then southward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the 50s F along much of this moist axis. Thunderstorms are expected to form near the moist axis during the afternoon, along the leading edge of a band of strong large-scale ascent. Forecast soundings near the moist axis at 21Z Sunday suggest that MUCAPE will be around 500 J/kg, and that 0-6 km shear will be in the 60 to 70 knot range. 0-3 km lapse are forecast to be near 7.5 C/km. This environment should support marginally severe gusts as cells move eastward toward the lower Ohio and western Tennessee Valley during the late afternoon and early evening. Hail will also be possible, especially where buoyancy is greatest. Further south-southwest, surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the lower to mid 60s F across much of the lower Mississippi Valley. Surface heating and low-level convergence near the moist axis should result in isolated convective initiation. Weak instability is expected to develop, with MUCAPE generally peaking in the 500 to 750 J/kg range. This, along with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, and steep low-level lapse rates should be enough for marginally severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 04/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts will be possible on Sunday from the lower to mid Mississippi Valley eastward into western parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Hail could also occur in parts of the mid Mississippi Valley. ...Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley/Western Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... An upper-level low is forecast to move eastward into the mid Missouri Valley on Sunday, as a mid-level trough moves eastward into the Ozarks. At the surface, a low is forecast to move into the mid Missouri Valley, as a warm front advances northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Along the warm front, a narrow corridor of low-level moisture will be in place, with the moist axis extending southeastward, and then southward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the 50s F along much of this moist axis. Thunderstorms are expected to form near the moist axis during the afternoon, along the leading edge of a band of strong large-scale ascent. Forecast soundings near the moist axis at 21Z Sunday suggest that MUCAPE will be around 500 J/kg, and that 0-6 km shear will be in the 60 to 70 knot range. 0-3 km lapse are forecast to be near 7.5 C/km. This environment should support marginally severe gusts as cells move eastward toward the lower Ohio and western Tennessee Valley during the late afternoon and early evening. Hail will also be possible, especially where buoyancy is greatest. Further south-southwest, surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the lower to mid 60s F across much of the lower Mississippi Valley. Surface heating and low-level convergence near the moist axis should result in isolated convective initiation. Weak instability is expected to develop, with MUCAPE generally peaking in the 500 to 750 J/kg range. This, along with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, and steep low-level lapse rates should be enough for marginally severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 04/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts will be possible on Sunday from the lower to mid Mississippi Valley eastward into western parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Hail could also occur in parts of the mid Mississippi Valley. ...Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley/Western Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... An upper-level low is forecast to move eastward into the mid Missouri Valley on Sunday, as a mid-level trough moves eastward into the Ozarks. At the surface, a low is forecast to move into the mid Missouri Valley, as a warm front advances northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Along the warm front, a narrow corridor of low-level moisture will be in place, with the moist axis extending southeastward, and then southward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the 50s F along much of this moist axis. Thunderstorms are expected to form near the moist axis during the afternoon, along the leading edge of a band of strong large-scale ascent. Forecast soundings near the moist axis at 21Z Sunday suggest that MUCAPE will be around 500 J/kg, and that 0-6 km shear will be in the 60 to 70 knot range. 0-3 km lapse are forecast to be near 7.5 C/km. This environment should support marginally severe gusts as cells move eastward toward the lower Ohio and western Tennessee Valley during the late afternoon and early evening. Hail will also be possible, especially where buoyancy is greatest. Further south-southwest, surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the lower to mid 60s F across much of the lower Mississippi Valley. Surface heating and low-level convergence near the moist axis should result in isolated convective initiation. Weak instability is expected to develop, with MUCAPE generally peaking in the 500 to 750 J/kg range. This, along with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, and steep low-level lapse rates should be enough for marginally severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 04/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts will be possible on Sunday from the lower to mid Mississippi Valley eastward into western parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Hail could also occur in parts of the mid Mississippi Valley. ...Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley/Western Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... An upper-level low is forecast to move eastward into the mid Missouri Valley on Sunday, as a mid-level trough moves eastward into the Ozarks. At the surface, a low is forecast to move into the mid Missouri Valley, as a warm front advances northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Along the warm front, a narrow corridor of low-level moisture will be in place, with the moist axis extending southeastward, and then southward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the 50s F along much of this moist axis. Thunderstorms are expected to form near the moist axis during the afternoon, along the leading edge of a band of strong large-scale ascent. Forecast soundings near the moist axis at 21Z Sunday suggest that MUCAPE will be around 500 J/kg, and that 0-6 km shear will be in the 60 to 70 knot range. 0-3 km lapse are forecast to be near 7.5 C/km. This environment should support marginally severe gusts as cells move eastward toward the lower Ohio and western Tennessee Valley during the late afternoon and early evening. Hail will also be possible, especially where buoyancy is greatest. Further south-southwest, surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the lower to mid 60s F across much of the lower Mississippi Valley. Surface heating and low-level convergence near the moist axis should result in isolated convective initiation. Weak instability is expected to develop, with MUCAPE generally peaking in the 500 to 750 J/kg range. This, along with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, and steep low-level lapse rates should be enough for marginally severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 04/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts will be possible on Sunday from the lower to mid Mississippi Valley eastward into western parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Hail could also occur in parts of the mid Mississippi Valley. ...Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley/Western Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... An upper-level low is forecast to move eastward into the mid Missouri Valley on Sunday, as a mid-level trough moves eastward into the Ozarks. At the surface, a low is forecast to move into the mid Missouri Valley, as a warm front advances northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Along the warm front, a narrow corridor of low-level moisture will be in place, with the moist axis extending southeastward, and then southward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the 50s F along much of this moist axis. Thunderstorms are expected to form near the moist axis during the afternoon, along the leading edge of a band of strong large-scale ascent. Forecast soundings near the moist axis at 21Z Sunday suggest that MUCAPE will be around 500 J/kg, and that 0-6 km shear will be in the 60 to 70 knot range. 0-3 km lapse are forecast to be near 7.5 C/km. This environment should support marginally severe gusts as cells move eastward toward the lower Ohio and western Tennessee Valley during the late afternoon and early evening. Hail will also be possible, especially where buoyancy is greatest. Further south-southwest, surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the lower to mid 60s F across much of the lower Mississippi Valley. Surface heating and low-level convergence near the moist axis should result in isolated convective initiation. Weak instability is expected to develop, with MUCAPE generally peaking in the 500 to 750 J/kg range. This, along with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, and steep low-level lapse rates should be enough for marginally severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 04/05/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... The second of a two-day fire weather event is anticipated on Saturday across southern NM/far west TX to southeast CO and southwest KS. Robust lee cyclogenesis is anticipated across the central High Plains by 18 UTC Saturday as a progressive upper-level wave (currently moving onto the CA coast) overspreads the region. The surface low is forecast to shift east into the Plains through the afternoon with a trailing surface trough/Pacific front pushing east across the southern High Plains by late morning. As this occurs, west/northwesterly post-frontal winds will advect a dry air mass off the central/southern Rockies into the High Plains. Downslope warming/drying of this air mass will promote widespread RH reductions into the 10-20% range across NM, western TX, and portions of OK/CO/KS. Latest high-res ensemble guidance shows reasonably high confidence in sub-15% RH within the critical risk area, and the typically drier/windier solutions hint that single-digit RH minimums are possible. Winds are expected to increase to 20-25 mph (gusting to 40-50 mph) by early afternoon amid a strengthening surface pressure gradient and deepening boundary-layer mixing. Sustained winds between 30-35 mph winds possible under the mid-level jet maximum, which should be located broadly across the northern TX and OK Panhandles. This region will see the highest potential for extremely critical fire weather conditions. Consideration was given to introducing an Extremely Critical risk area, but somewhat low ensemble consensus for sustained 30+ mph winds (only 10-30% probability) precluded higher risk headlines. These low probabilities may be associated with spread regarding the placement and magnitude of the surface low (up to a 4 mb difference between some solutions). These details should become better resolved heading into the Day-1 time frame. Regardless, fuels across the region should be very receptive after warm, dry, and windy conditions on Friday, which should support the high-end Critical fire weather risk on Saturday. ..Moore.. 04/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... The second of a two-day fire weather event is anticipated on Saturday across southern NM/far west TX to southeast CO and southwest KS. Robust lee cyclogenesis is anticipated across the central High Plains by 18 UTC Saturday as a progressive upper-level wave (currently moving onto the CA coast) overspreads the region. The surface low is forecast to shift east into the Plains through the afternoon with a trailing surface trough/Pacific front pushing east across the southern High Plains by late morning. As this occurs, west/northwesterly post-frontal winds will advect a dry air mass off the central/southern Rockies into the High Plains. Downslope warming/drying of this air mass will promote widespread RH reductions into the 10-20% range across NM, western TX, and portions of OK/CO/KS. Latest high-res ensemble guidance shows reasonably high confidence in sub-15% RH within the critical risk area, and the typically drier/windier solutions hint that single-digit RH minimums are possible. Winds are expected to increase to 20-25 mph (gusting to 40-50 mph) by early afternoon amid a strengthening surface pressure gradient and deepening boundary-layer mixing. Sustained winds between 30-35 mph winds possible under the mid-level jet maximum, which should be located broadly across the northern TX and OK Panhandles. This region will see the highest potential for extremely critical fire weather conditions. Consideration was given to introducing an Extremely Critical risk area, but somewhat low ensemble consensus for sustained 30+ mph winds (only 10-30% probability) precluded higher risk headlines. These low probabilities may be associated with spread regarding the placement and magnitude of the surface low (up to a 4 mb difference between some solutions). These details should become better resolved heading into the Day-1 time frame. Regardless, fuels across the region should be very receptive after warm, dry, and windy conditions on Friday, which should support the high-end Critical fire weather risk on Saturday. ..Moore.. 04/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... The second of a two-day fire weather event is anticipated on Saturday across southern NM/far west TX to southeast CO and southwest KS. Robust lee cyclogenesis is anticipated across the central High Plains by 18 UTC Saturday as a progressive upper-level wave (currently moving onto the CA coast) overspreads the region. The surface low is forecast to shift east into the Plains through the afternoon with a trailing surface trough/Pacific front pushing east across the southern High Plains by late morning. As this occurs, west/northwesterly post-frontal winds will advect a dry air mass off the central/southern Rockies into the High Plains. Downslope warming/drying of this air mass will promote widespread RH reductions into the 10-20% range across NM, western TX, and portions of OK/CO/KS. Latest high-res ensemble guidance shows reasonably high confidence in sub-15% RH within the critical risk area, and the typically drier/windier solutions hint that single-digit RH minimums are possible. Winds are expected to increase to 20-25 mph (gusting to 40-50 mph) by early afternoon amid a strengthening surface pressure gradient and deepening boundary-layer mixing. Sustained winds between 30-35 mph winds possible under the mid-level jet maximum, which should be located broadly across the northern TX and OK Panhandles. This region will see the highest potential for extremely critical fire weather conditions. Consideration was given to introducing an Extremely Critical risk area, but somewhat low ensemble consensus for sustained 30+ mph winds (only 10-30% probability) precluded higher risk headlines. These low probabilities may be associated with spread regarding the placement and magnitude of the surface low (up to a 4 mb difference between some solutions). These details should become better resolved heading into the Day-1 time frame. Regardless, fuels across the region should be very receptive after warm, dry, and windy conditions on Friday, which should support the high-end Critical fire weather risk on Saturday. ..Moore.. 04/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... The second of a two-day fire weather event is anticipated on Saturday across southern NM/far west TX to southeast CO and southwest KS. Robust lee cyclogenesis is anticipated across the central High Plains by 18 UTC Saturday as a progressive upper-level wave (currently moving onto the CA coast) overspreads the region. The surface low is forecast to shift east into the Plains through the afternoon with a trailing surface trough/Pacific front pushing east across the southern High Plains by late morning. As this occurs, west/northwesterly post-frontal winds will advect a dry air mass off the central/southern Rockies into the High Plains. Downslope warming/drying of this air mass will promote widespread RH reductions into the 10-20% range across NM, western TX, and portions of OK/CO/KS. Latest high-res ensemble guidance shows reasonably high confidence in sub-15% RH within the critical risk area, and the typically drier/windier solutions hint that single-digit RH minimums are possible. Winds are expected to increase to 20-25 mph (gusting to 40-50 mph) by early afternoon amid a strengthening surface pressure gradient and deepening boundary-layer mixing. Sustained winds between 30-35 mph winds possible under the mid-level jet maximum, which should be located broadly across the northern TX and OK Panhandles. This region will see the highest potential for extremely critical fire weather conditions. Consideration was given to introducing an Extremely Critical risk area, but somewhat low ensemble consensus for sustained 30+ mph winds (only 10-30% probability) precluded higher risk headlines. These low probabilities may be associated with spread regarding the placement and magnitude of the surface low (up to a 4 mb difference between some solutions). These details should become better resolved heading into the Day-1 time frame. Regardless, fuels across the region should be very receptive after warm, dry, and windy conditions on Friday, which should support the high-end Critical fire weather risk on Saturday. ..Moore.. 04/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... The second of a two-day fire weather event is anticipated on Saturday across southern NM/far west TX to southeast CO and southwest KS. Robust lee cyclogenesis is anticipated across the central High Plains by 18 UTC Saturday as a progressive upper-level wave (currently moving onto the CA coast) overspreads the region. The surface low is forecast to shift east into the Plains through the afternoon with a trailing surface trough/Pacific front pushing east across the southern High Plains by late morning. As this occurs, west/northwesterly post-frontal winds will advect a dry air mass off the central/southern Rockies into the High Plains. Downslope warming/drying of this air mass will promote widespread RH reductions into the 10-20% range across NM, western TX, and portions of OK/CO/KS. Latest high-res ensemble guidance shows reasonably high confidence in sub-15% RH within the critical risk area, and the typically drier/windier solutions hint that single-digit RH minimums are possible. Winds are expected to increase to 20-25 mph (gusting to 40-50 mph) by early afternoon amid a strengthening surface pressure gradient and deepening boundary-layer mixing. Sustained winds between 30-35 mph winds possible under the mid-level jet maximum, which should be located broadly across the northern TX and OK Panhandles. This region will see the highest potential for extremely critical fire weather conditions. Consideration was given to introducing an Extremely Critical risk area, but somewhat low ensemble consensus for sustained 30+ mph winds (only 10-30% probability) precluded higher risk headlines. These low probabilities may be associated with spread regarding the placement and magnitude of the surface low (up to a 4 mb difference between some solutions). These details should become better resolved heading into the Day-1 time frame. Regardless, fuels across the region should be very receptive after warm, dry, and windy conditions on Friday, which should support the high-end Critical fire weather risk on Saturday. ..Moore.. 04/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... The second of a two-day fire weather event is anticipated on Saturday across southern NM/far west TX to southeast CO and southwest KS. Robust lee cyclogenesis is anticipated across the central High Plains by 18 UTC Saturday as a progressive upper-level wave (currently moving onto the CA coast) overspreads the region. The surface low is forecast to shift east into the Plains through the afternoon with a trailing surface trough/Pacific front pushing east across the southern High Plains by late morning. As this occurs, west/northwesterly post-frontal winds will advect a dry air mass off the central/southern Rockies into the High Plains. Downslope warming/drying of this air mass will promote widespread RH reductions into the 10-20% range across NM, western TX, and portions of OK/CO/KS. Latest high-res ensemble guidance shows reasonably high confidence in sub-15% RH within the critical risk area, and the typically drier/windier solutions hint that single-digit RH minimums are possible. Winds are expected to increase to 20-25 mph (gusting to 40-50 mph) by early afternoon amid a strengthening surface pressure gradient and deepening boundary-layer mixing. Sustained winds between 30-35 mph winds possible under the mid-level jet maximum, which should be located broadly across the northern TX and OK Panhandles. This region will see the highest potential for extremely critical fire weather conditions. Consideration was given to introducing an Extremely Critical risk area, but somewhat low ensemble consensus for sustained 30+ mph winds (only 10-30% probability) precluded higher risk headlines. These low probabilities may be associated with spread regarding the placement and magnitude of the surface low (up to a 4 mb difference between some solutions). These details should become better resolved heading into the Day-1 time frame. Regardless, fuels across the region should be very receptive after warm, dry, and windy conditions on Friday, which should support the high-end Critical fire weather risk on Saturday. ..Moore.. 04/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... ...Southern to Central High Plains... Today will be the first of two days of widespread critical fire weather conditions - particularly across the southern High Plains. Early-morning surface observations are showing poor overnight RH recovery (10-30% as of 06 UTC) across southeast NM and west/southwest TX to eastern CO. No appreciable moisture return will maintain this unseasonably dry air mass (dewpoints near the 10th percentile for early April) over the next two days. Meanwhile across the West Coast, a strong upper-level trough is noted in water-vapor imagery moving onto the CA coast. Slow, but steady pressure falls are noted along the High Plains as this feature shifts east, with a more robust low-level mass response anticipated through the day. This will promote widespread sustained winds between 20-25 mph (gusting to 35-45 mph) across the southern to central High Plains. Latest ensemble guidance suggests RH values will fall into the 10-15% range for most locations, though localized areas of single-digit RH is possible. This will most likely occur over areas that can maintain mostly clear skies through mid/late afternoon, allowing for stronger surface heating and deeper boundary-layer mixing. Confidence in the coverage of sub-10% RH is limited based on spread in recent guidance, but recent high-res solutions suggests this may be most likely over east-central CO. Consequently, pockets of extremely critical conditions are possible with more widespread, sustained critical conditions expected. Recent fuel analyses show that 1 and 10-hour fuels are either currently receptive or should see sufficient drying to support the fire weather threat. ...Wyoming into Montana... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected across eastern to northeast WY and southeast MT this afternoon. Surface pressure falls across the northern High Plains should promote a strengthening pressure gradient and widespread 15-25 mph winds with afternoon RH minimums in the 15-25% range. Additionally, a modest influx of mid-level moisture coupled with broad scale ascent may support a few isolated thunderstorms. Given the dry, deeply-mixed boundary layers over the region and PWAT values well below 0.5 inch, a few dry thunderstorms are possible. ...North Dakota... Sustained winds between 20-25 mph appear likely across much of central ND this afternoon. Dry conditions were noted yesterday across this region, and limited moisture return, coupled with diurnal heating, should promote RH reductions into the 20-30% range this afternoon. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected, but modest fuel receptiveness precludes higher risk highlights. ..Moore.. 04/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... ...Southern to Central High Plains... Today will be the first of two days of widespread critical fire weather conditions - particularly across the southern High Plains. Early-morning surface observations are showing poor overnight RH recovery (10-30% as of 06 UTC) across southeast NM and west/southwest TX to eastern CO. No appreciable moisture return will maintain this unseasonably dry air mass (dewpoints near the 10th percentile for early April) over the next two days. Meanwhile across the West Coast, a strong upper-level trough is noted in water-vapor imagery moving onto the CA coast. Slow, but steady pressure falls are noted along the High Plains as this feature shifts east, with a more robust low-level mass response anticipated through the day. This will promote widespread sustained winds between 20-25 mph (gusting to 35-45 mph) across the southern to central High Plains. Latest ensemble guidance suggests RH values will fall into the 10-15% range for most locations, though localized areas of single-digit RH is possible. This will most likely occur over areas that can maintain mostly clear skies through mid/late afternoon, allowing for stronger surface heating and deeper boundary-layer mixing. Confidence in the coverage of sub-10% RH is limited based on spread in recent guidance, but recent high-res solutions suggests this may be most likely over east-central CO. Consequently, pockets of extremely critical conditions are possible with more widespread, sustained critical conditions expected. Recent fuel analyses show that 1 and 10-hour fuels are either currently receptive or should see sufficient drying to support the fire weather threat. ...Wyoming into Montana... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected across eastern to northeast WY and southeast MT this afternoon. Surface pressure falls across the northern High Plains should promote a strengthening pressure gradient and widespread 15-25 mph winds with afternoon RH minimums in the 15-25% range. Additionally, a modest influx of mid-level moisture coupled with broad scale ascent may support a few isolated thunderstorms. Given the dry, deeply-mixed boundary layers over the region and PWAT values well below 0.5 inch, a few dry thunderstorms are possible. ...North Dakota... Sustained winds between 20-25 mph appear likely across much of central ND this afternoon. Dry conditions were noted yesterday across this region, and limited moisture return, coupled with diurnal heating, should promote RH reductions into the 20-30% range this afternoon. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected, but modest fuel receptiveness precludes higher risk highlights. ..Moore.. 04/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... ...Southern to Central High Plains... Today will be the first of two days of widespread critical fire weather conditions - particularly across the southern High Plains. Early-morning surface observations are showing poor overnight RH recovery (10-30% as of 06 UTC) across southeast NM and west/southwest TX to eastern CO. No appreciable moisture return will maintain this unseasonably dry air mass (dewpoints near the 10th percentile for early April) over the next two days. Meanwhile across the West Coast, a strong upper-level trough is noted in water-vapor imagery moving onto the CA coast. Slow, but steady pressure falls are noted along the High Plains as this feature shifts east, with a more robust low-level mass response anticipated through the day. This will promote widespread sustained winds between 20-25 mph (gusting to 35-45 mph) across the southern to central High Plains. Latest ensemble guidance suggests RH values will fall into the 10-15% range for most locations, though localized areas of single-digit RH is possible. This will most likely occur over areas that can maintain mostly clear skies through mid/late afternoon, allowing for stronger surface heating and deeper boundary-layer mixing. Confidence in the coverage of sub-10% RH is limited based on spread in recent guidance, but recent high-res solutions suggests this may be most likely over east-central CO. Consequently, pockets of extremely critical conditions are possible with more widespread, sustained critical conditions expected. Recent fuel analyses show that 1 and 10-hour fuels are either currently receptive or should see sufficient drying to support the fire weather threat. ...Wyoming into Montana... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected across eastern to northeast WY and southeast MT this afternoon. Surface pressure falls across the northern High Plains should promote a strengthening pressure gradient and widespread 15-25 mph winds with afternoon RH minimums in the 15-25% range. Additionally, a modest influx of mid-level moisture coupled with broad scale ascent may support a few isolated thunderstorms. Given the dry, deeply-mixed boundary layers over the region and PWAT values well below 0.5 inch, a few dry thunderstorms are possible. ...North Dakota... Sustained winds between 20-25 mph appear likely across much of central ND this afternoon. Dry conditions were noted yesterday across this region, and limited moisture return, coupled with diurnal heating, should promote RH reductions into the 20-30% range this afternoon. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected, but modest fuel receptiveness precludes higher risk highlights. ..Moore.. 04/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... ...Southern to Central High Plains... Today will be the first of two days of widespread critical fire weather conditions - particularly across the southern High Plains. Early-morning surface observations are showing poor overnight RH recovery (10-30% as of 06 UTC) across southeast NM and west/southwest TX to eastern CO. No appreciable moisture return will maintain this unseasonably dry air mass (dewpoints near the 10th percentile for early April) over the next two days. Meanwhile across the West Coast, a strong upper-level trough is noted in water-vapor imagery moving onto the CA coast. Slow, but steady pressure falls are noted along the High Plains as this feature shifts east, with a more robust low-level mass response anticipated through the day. This will promote widespread sustained winds between 20-25 mph (gusting to 35-45 mph) across the southern to central High Plains. Latest ensemble guidance suggests RH values will fall into the 10-15% range for most locations, though localized areas of single-digit RH is possible. This will most likely occur over areas that can maintain mostly clear skies through mid/late afternoon, allowing for stronger surface heating and deeper boundary-layer mixing. Confidence in the coverage of sub-10% RH is limited based on spread in recent guidance, but recent high-res solutions suggests this may be most likely over east-central CO. Consequently, pockets of extremely critical conditions are possible with more widespread, sustained critical conditions expected. Recent fuel analyses show that 1 and 10-hour fuels are either currently receptive or should see sufficient drying to support the fire weather threat. ...Wyoming into Montana... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected across eastern to northeast WY and southeast MT this afternoon. Surface pressure falls across the northern High Plains should promote a strengthening pressure gradient and widespread 15-25 mph winds with afternoon RH minimums in the 15-25% range. Additionally, a modest influx of mid-level moisture coupled with broad scale ascent may support a few isolated thunderstorms. Given the dry, deeply-mixed boundary layers over the region and PWAT values well below 0.5 inch, a few dry thunderstorms are possible. ...North Dakota... Sustained winds between 20-25 mph appear likely across much of central ND this afternoon. Dry conditions were noted yesterday across this region, and limited moisture return, coupled with diurnal heating, should promote RH reductions into the 20-30% range this afternoon. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected, but modest fuel receptiveness precludes higher risk highlights. ..Moore.. 04/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... ...Southern to Central High Plains... Today will be the first of two days of widespread critical fire weather conditions - particularly across the southern High Plains. Early-morning surface observations are showing poor overnight RH recovery (10-30% as of 06 UTC) across southeast NM and west/southwest TX to eastern CO. No appreciable moisture return will maintain this unseasonably dry air mass (dewpoints near the 10th percentile for early April) over the next two days. Meanwhile across the West Coast, a strong upper-level trough is noted in water-vapor imagery moving onto the CA coast. Slow, but steady pressure falls are noted along the High Plains as this feature shifts east, with a more robust low-level mass response anticipated through the day. This will promote widespread sustained winds between 20-25 mph (gusting to 35-45 mph) across the southern to central High Plains. Latest ensemble guidance suggests RH values will fall into the 10-15% range for most locations, though localized areas of single-digit RH is possible. This will most likely occur over areas that can maintain mostly clear skies through mid/late afternoon, allowing for stronger surface heating and deeper boundary-layer mixing. Confidence in the coverage of sub-10% RH is limited based on spread in recent guidance, but recent high-res solutions suggests this may be most likely over east-central CO. Consequently, pockets of extremely critical conditions are possible with more widespread, sustained critical conditions expected. Recent fuel analyses show that 1 and 10-hour fuels are either currently receptive or should see sufficient drying to support the fire weather threat. ...Wyoming into Montana... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected across eastern to northeast WY and southeast MT this afternoon. Surface pressure falls across the northern High Plains should promote a strengthening pressure gradient and widespread 15-25 mph winds with afternoon RH minimums in the 15-25% range. Additionally, a modest influx of mid-level moisture coupled with broad scale ascent may support a few isolated thunderstorms. Given the dry, deeply-mixed boundary layers over the region and PWAT values well below 0.5 inch, a few dry thunderstorms are possible. ...North Dakota... Sustained winds between 20-25 mph appear likely across much of central ND this afternoon. Dry conditions were noted yesterday across this region, and limited moisture return, coupled with diurnal heating, should promote RH reductions into the 20-30% range this afternoon. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected, but modest fuel receptiveness precludes higher risk highlights. ..Moore.. 04/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more