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MD 0369 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 86... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH/CENTRAL FL
Mesoscale Discussion 0369 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Areas affected...Portions of north/central FL Concerning...Tornado Watch 86... Valid 031702Z - 031830Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 86 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps a couple of tornadoes should continue across parts of north/central Florida. DISCUSSION...Convection across north FL has become more parallel to the mid-level southwesterly flow. This has slowed its southward advance across the FL Peninsula, but additional thunderstorms have also strengthened recently across the eastern Gulf of Mexico along or just ahead of a cold front. Given the mainly linear nature of these thunderstorms, current expectations are for mainly a damaging wind threat to continue through the afternoon as the airmass south of the ongoing activity gradually destabilizes. Strong deep-layer shear of 40-50 kt will help maintain thunderstorm organization/intensity. Sufficient low-level shear is also present to support updraft rotation with embedded circulations and some tornado threat within the line, and with any cells that can develop across the open warm sector. ..Gleason.. 04/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 28868322 29358294 30148115 29588084 28858080 28408109 28168213 28248304 28868322 Read more

WW 0086 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 86 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW PIE TO 20 E GNV TO 15 WSW SGJ. ..LYONS..04/03/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...MLB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 86 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC017-035-053-069-083-095-101-107-109-117-119-127-031940- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CITRUS FLAGLER HERNANDO LAKE MARION ORANGE PASCO PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SEMINOLE SUMTER VOLUSIA AMZ454-550-031940- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0086 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 86 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW PIE TO 20 E GNV TO 15 WSW SGJ. ..LYONS..04/03/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...MLB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 86 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC017-035-053-069-083-095-101-107-109-117-119-127-031940- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CITRUS FLAGLER HERNANDO LAKE MARION ORANGE PASCO PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SEMINOLE SUMTER VOLUSIA AMZ454-550-031940- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0086 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 86 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW PIE TO 20 E GNV TO 15 WSW SGJ. ..LYONS..04/03/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...MLB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 86 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC017-035-053-069-083-095-101-107-109-117-119-127-031940- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CITRUS FLAGLER HERNANDO LAKE MARION ORANGE PASCO PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SEMINOLE SUMTER VOLUSIA AMZ454-550-031940- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0086 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 86 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW PIE TO 20 E GNV TO 15 WSW SGJ. ..LYONS..04/03/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...MLB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 86 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC017-035-053-069-083-095-101-107-109-117-119-127-031940- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CITRUS FLAGLER HERNANDO LAKE MARION ORANGE PASCO PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SEMINOLE SUMTER VOLUSIA AMZ454-550-031940- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0086 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 86 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW PIE TO 20 E GNV TO 15 WSW SGJ. ..LYONS..04/03/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...MLB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 86 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC017-035-053-069-083-095-101-107-109-117-119-127-031940- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CITRUS FLAGLER HERNANDO LAKE MARION ORANGE PASCO PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SEMINOLE SUMTER VOLUSIA AMZ454-550-031940- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 86 TORNADO FL CW 031440Z - 032100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 86 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 AM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of North and central Florida Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday morning and afternoon from 1040 AM until 500 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will continue to develop slowly southeastward from north into central Florida through the afternoon. Embedded storms will be capable of producing damaging winds of 60-70 mph, while the potential for a couple of tornadoes will be greater with any isolated supercells that can form just ahead of the main line of storms. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles south southwest of Cross City FL to 25 miles east of St Augustine FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 85... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25040. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0087 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 87 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW DAN TO 25 SSE LYH TO 40 ESE CHO TO 20 WSW DCA. ..LYONS..04/03/24 ATTN...WFO...PHI...LWX...AKQ...RNK...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 87 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-005-031940- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT SUSSEX MDC009-011-019-035-037-039-041-045-047-031940- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALVERT CAROLINE DORCHESTER QUEEN ANNE'S ST. MARYS SOMERSET TALBOT WICOMICO WORCESTER NCC033-065-069-077-083-127-131-145-157-181-185-031940- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASWELL EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GRANVILLE HALIFAX NASH Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Thursday and Thursday night. ...Discussion... A highly amplified upper pattern will prevail across the U.S. Thursday, with a pair of closed upper lows -- one over the West and one over the East -- separated by a sharp central U.S. ridge. With a cold front associated with the eastern system already offshore, a cool airmass residing over the eastern half of the U.S. in its wake, precludes appreciable potential for strong/severe storms. Still, with cold air/steep lapse rates through the middle layer of the troposphere, daytime heating of the boundary layer will result in diurnal development of low-topped convection across the upper Ohio Valley/central Appalachians region. Some small hail may occur with the strongest cells, but should remain well below severe limits. Meanwhile in the West, a cold front associated with the western upper system will advance across Idaho, the Great Basin, and California. Weak instability ahead of the boundary from western Montana to northern Nevada will support convection and occasional lightning flashes. Meanwhile, post-frontal westerly upslope low-level flow behind the front, combined with cold air/steep lapse rates aloft associated with the upper low, will result in widespread showery convection and occasional lightning, across portions of California and possibly coastal Oregon. In both of these areas, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Thursday and Thursday night. ...Discussion... A highly amplified upper pattern will prevail across the U.S. Thursday, with a pair of closed upper lows -- one over the West and one over the East -- separated by a sharp central U.S. ridge. With a cold front associated with the eastern system already offshore, a cool airmass residing over the eastern half of the U.S. in its wake, precludes appreciable potential for strong/severe storms. Still, with cold air/steep lapse rates through the middle layer of the troposphere, daytime heating of the boundary layer will result in diurnal development of low-topped convection across the upper Ohio Valley/central Appalachians region. Some small hail may occur with the strongest cells, but should remain well below severe limits. Meanwhile in the West, a cold front associated with the western upper system will advance across Idaho, the Great Basin, and California. Weak instability ahead of the boundary from western Montana to northern Nevada will support convection and occasional lightning flashes. Meanwhile, post-frontal westerly upslope low-level flow behind the front, combined with cold air/steep lapse rates aloft associated with the upper low, will result in widespread showery convection and occasional lightning, across portions of California and possibly coastal Oregon. In both of these areas, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Thursday and Thursday night. ...Discussion... A highly amplified upper pattern will prevail across the U.S. Thursday, with a pair of closed upper lows -- one over the West and one over the East -- separated by a sharp central U.S. ridge. With a cold front associated with the eastern system already offshore, a cool airmass residing over the eastern half of the U.S. in its wake, precludes appreciable potential for strong/severe storms. Still, with cold air/steep lapse rates through the middle layer of the troposphere, daytime heating of the boundary layer will result in diurnal development of low-topped convection across the upper Ohio Valley/central Appalachians region. Some small hail may occur with the strongest cells, but should remain well below severe limits. Meanwhile in the West, a cold front associated with the western upper system will advance across Idaho, the Great Basin, and California. Weak instability ahead of the boundary from western Montana to northern Nevada will support convection and occasional lightning flashes. Meanwhile, post-frontal westerly upslope low-level flow behind the front, combined with cold air/steep lapse rates aloft associated with the upper low, will result in widespread showery convection and occasional lightning, across portions of California and possibly coastal Oregon. In both of these areas, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Thursday and Thursday night. ...Discussion... A highly amplified upper pattern will prevail across the U.S. Thursday, with a pair of closed upper lows -- one over the West and one over the East -- separated by a sharp central U.S. ridge. With a cold front associated with the eastern system already offshore, a cool airmass residing over the eastern half of the U.S. in its wake, precludes appreciable potential for strong/severe storms. Still, with cold air/steep lapse rates through the middle layer of the troposphere, daytime heating of the boundary layer will result in diurnal development of low-topped convection across the upper Ohio Valley/central Appalachians region. Some small hail may occur with the strongest cells, but should remain well below severe limits. Meanwhile in the West, a cold front associated with the western upper system will advance across Idaho, the Great Basin, and California. Weak instability ahead of the boundary from western Montana to northern Nevada will support convection and occasional lightning flashes. Meanwhile, post-frontal westerly upslope low-level flow behind the front, combined with cold air/steep lapse rates aloft associated with the upper low, will result in widespread showery convection and occasional lightning, across portions of California and possibly coastal Oregon. In both of these areas, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Thursday and Thursday night. ...Discussion... A highly amplified upper pattern will prevail across the U.S. Thursday, with a pair of closed upper lows -- one over the West and one over the East -- separated by a sharp central U.S. ridge. With a cold front associated with the eastern system already offshore, a cool airmass residing over the eastern half of the U.S. in its wake, precludes appreciable potential for strong/severe storms. Still, with cold air/steep lapse rates through the middle layer of the troposphere, daytime heating of the boundary layer will result in diurnal development of low-topped convection across the upper Ohio Valley/central Appalachians region. Some small hail may occur with the strongest cells, but should remain well below severe limits. Meanwhile in the West, a cold front associated with the western upper system will advance across Idaho, the Great Basin, and California. Weak instability ahead of the boundary from western Montana to northern Nevada will support convection and occasional lightning flashes. Meanwhile, post-frontal westerly upslope low-level flow behind the front, combined with cold air/steep lapse rates aloft associated with the upper low, will result in widespread showery convection and occasional lightning, across portions of California and possibly coastal Oregon. In both of these areas, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Thursday and Thursday night. ...Discussion... A highly amplified upper pattern will prevail across the U.S. Thursday, with a pair of closed upper lows -- one over the West and one over the East -- separated by a sharp central U.S. ridge. With a cold front associated with the eastern system already offshore, a cool airmass residing over the eastern half of the U.S. in its wake, precludes appreciable potential for strong/severe storms. Still, with cold air/steep lapse rates through the middle layer of the troposphere, daytime heating of the boundary layer will result in diurnal development of low-topped convection across the upper Ohio Valley/central Appalachians region. Some small hail may occur with the strongest cells, but should remain well below severe limits. Meanwhile in the West, a cold front associated with the western upper system will advance across Idaho, the Great Basin, and California. Weak instability ahead of the boundary from western Montana to northern Nevada will support convection and occasional lightning flashes. Meanwhile, post-frontal westerly upslope low-level flow behind the front, combined with cold air/steep lapse rates aloft associated with the upper low, will result in widespread showery convection and occasional lightning, across portions of California and possibly coastal Oregon. In both of these areas, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Thursday and Thursday night. ...Discussion... A highly amplified upper pattern will prevail across the U.S. Thursday, with a pair of closed upper lows -- one over the West and one over the East -- separated by a sharp central U.S. ridge. With a cold front associated with the eastern system already offshore, a cool airmass residing over the eastern half of the U.S. in its wake, precludes appreciable potential for strong/severe storms. Still, with cold air/steep lapse rates through the middle layer of the troposphere, daytime heating of the boundary layer will result in diurnal development of low-topped convection across the upper Ohio Valley/central Appalachians region. Some small hail may occur with the strongest cells, but should remain well below severe limits. Meanwhile in the West, a cold front associated with the western upper system will advance across Idaho, the Great Basin, and California. Weak instability ahead of the boundary from western Montana to northern Nevada will support convection and occasional lightning flashes. Meanwhile, post-frontal westerly upslope low-level flow behind the front, combined with cold air/steep lapse rates aloft associated with the upper low, will result in widespread showery convection and occasional lightning, across portions of California and possibly coastal Oregon. In both of these areas, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Thursday and Thursday night. ...Discussion... A highly amplified upper pattern will prevail across the U.S. Thursday, with a pair of closed upper lows -- one over the West and one over the East -- separated by a sharp central U.S. ridge. With a cold front associated with the eastern system already offshore, a cool airmass residing over the eastern half of the U.S. in its wake, precludes appreciable potential for strong/severe storms. Still, with cold air/steep lapse rates through the middle layer of the troposphere, daytime heating of the boundary layer will result in diurnal development of low-topped convection across the upper Ohio Valley/central Appalachians region. Some small hail may occur with the strongest cells, but should remain well below severe limits. Meanwhile in the West, a cold front associated with the western upper system will advance across Idaho, the Great Basin, and California. Weak instability ahead of the boundary from western Montana to northern Nevada will support convection and occasional lightning flashes. Meanwhile, post-frontal westerly upslope low-level flow behind the front, combined with cold air/steep lapse rates aloft associated with the upper low, will result in widespread showery convection and occasional lightning, across portions of California and possibly coastal Oregon. In both of these areas, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Thursday and Thursday night. ...Discussion... A highly amplified upper pattern will prevail across the U.S. Thursday, with a pair of closed upper lows -- one over the West and one over the East -- separated by a sharp central U.S. ridge. With a cold front associated with the eastern system already offshore, a cool airmass residing over the eastern half of the U.S. in its wake, precludes appreciable potential for strong/severe storms. Still, with cold air/steep lapse rates through the middle layer of the troposphere, daytime heating of the boundary layer will result in diurnal development of low-topped convection across the upper Ohio Valley/central Appalachians region. Some small hail may occur with the strongest cells, but should remain well below severe limits. Meanwhile in the West, a cold front associated with the western upper system will advance across Idaho, the Great Basin, and California. Weak instability ahead of the boundary from western Montana to northern Nevada will support convection and occasional lightning flashes. Meanwhile, post-frontal westerly upslope low-level flow behind the front, combined with cold air/steep lapse rates aloft associated with the upper low, will result in widespread showery convection and occasional lightning, across portions of California and possibly coastal Oregon. In both of these areas, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Thursday and Thursday night. ...Discussion... A highly amplified upper pattern will prevail across the U.S. Thursday, with a pair of closed upper lows -- one over the West and one over the East -- separated by a sharp central U.S. ridge. With a cold front associated with the eastern system already offshore, a cool airmass residing over the eastern half of the U.S. in its wake, precludes appreciable potential for strong/severe storms. Still, with cold air/steep lapse rates through the middle layer of the troposphere, daytime heating of the boundary layer will result in diurnal development of low-topped convection across the upper Ohio Valley/central Appalachians region. Some small hail may occur with the strongest cells, but should remain well below severe limits. Meanwhile in the West, a cold front associated with the western upper system will advance across Idaho, the Great Basin, and California. Weak instability ahead of the boundary from western Montana to northern Nevada will support convection and occasional lightning flashes. Meanwhile, post-frontal westerly upslope low-level flow behind the front, combined with cold air/steep lapse rates aloft associated with the upper low, will result in widespread showery convection and occasional lightning, across portions of California and possibly coastal Oregon. In both of these areas, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Thursday and Thursday night. ...Discussion... A highly amplified upper pattern will prevail across the U.S. Thursday, with a pair of closed upper lows -- one over the West and one over the East -- separated by a sharp central U.S. ridge. With a cold front associated with the eastern system already offshore, a cool airmass residing over the eastern half of the U.S. in its wake, precludes appreciable potential for strong/severe storms. Still, with cold air/steep lapse rates through the middle layer of the troposphere, daytime heating of the boundary layer will result in diurnal development of low-topped convection across the upper Ohio Valley/central Appalachians region. Some small hail may occur with the strongest cells, but should remain well below severe limits. Meanwhile in the West, a cold front associated with the western upper system will advance across Idaho, the Great Basin, and California. Weak instability ahead of the boundary from western Montana to northern Nevada will support convection and occasional lightning flashes. Meanwhile, post-frontal westerly upslope low-level flow behind the front, combined with cold air/steep lapse rates aloft associated with the upper low, will result in widespread showery convection and occasional lightning, across portions of California and possibly coastal Oregon. In both of these areas, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Thursday and Thursday night. ...Discussion... A highly amplified upper pattern will prevail across the U.S. Thursday, with a pair of closed upper lows -- one over the West and one over the East -- separated by a sharp central U.S. ridge. With a cold front associated with the eastern system already offshore, a cool airmass residing over the eastern half of the U.S. in its wake, precludes appreciable potential for strong/severe storms. Still, with cold air/steep lapse rates through the middle layer of the troposphere, daytime heating of the boundary layer will result in diurnal development of low-topped convection across the upper Ohio Valley/central Appalachians region. Some small hail may occur with the strongest cells, but should remain well below severe limits. Meanwhile in the West, a cold front associated with the western upper system will advance across Idaho, the Great Basin, and California. Weak instability ahead of the boundary from western Montana to northern Nevada will support convection and occasional lightning flashes. Meanwhile, post-frontal westerly upslope low-level flow behind the front, combined with cold air/steep lapse rates aloft associated with the upper low, will result in widespread showery convection and occasional lightning, across portions of California and possibly coastal Oregon. In both of these areas, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss.. 04/03/2024 Read more