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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Thursday and Thursday night. ...Discussion... A highly amplified upper pattern will prevail across the U.S. Thursday, with a pair of closed upper lows -- one over the West and one over the East -- separated by a sharp central U.S. ridge. With a cold front associated with the eastern system already offshore, a cool airmass residing over the eastern half of the U.S. in its wake, precludes appreciable potential for strong/severe storms. Still, with cold air/steep lapse rates through the middle layer of the troposphere, daytime heating of the boundary layer will result in diurnal development of low-topped convection across the upper Ohio Valley/central Appalachians region. Some small hail may occur with the strongest cells, but should remain well below severe limits. Meanwhile in the West, a cold front associated with the western upper system will advance across Idaho, the Great Basin, and California. Weak instability ahead of the boundary from western Montana to northern Nevada will support convection and occasional lightning flashes. Meanwhile, post-frontal westerly upslope low-level flow behind the front, combined with cold air/steep lapse rates aloft associated with the upper low, will result in widespread showery convection and occasional lightning, across portions of California and possibly coastal Oregon. In both of these areas, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Thursday and Thursday night. ...Discussion... A highly amplified upper pattern will prevail across the U.S. Thursday, with a pair of closed upper lows -- one over the West and one over the East -- separated by a sharp central U.S. ridge. With a cold front associated with the eastern system already offshore, a cool airmass residing over the eastern half of the U.S. in its wake, precludes appreciable potential for strong/severe storms. Still, with cold air/steep lapse rates through the middle layer of the troposphere, daytime heating of the boundary layer will result in diurnal development of low-topped convection across the upper Ohio Valley/central Appalachians region. Some small hail may occur with the strongest cells, but should remain well below severe limits. Meanwhile in the West, a cold front associated with the western upper system will advance across Idaho, the Great Basin, and California. Weak instability ahead of the boundary from western Montana to northern Nevada will support convection and occasional lightning flashes. Meanwhile, post-frontal westerly upslope low-level flow behind the front, combined with cold air/steep lapse rates aloft associated with the upper low, will result in widespread showery convection and occasional lightning, across portions of California and possibly coastal Oregon. In both of these areas, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Thursday and Thursday night. ...Discussion... A highly amplified upper pattern will prevail across the U.S. Thursday, with a pair of closed upper lows -- one over the West and one over the East -- separated by a sharp central U.S. ridge. With a cold front associated with the eastern system already offshore, a cool airmass residing over the eastern half of the U.S. in its wake, precludes appreciable potential for strong/severe storms. Still, with cold air/steep lapse rates through the middle layer of the troposphere, daytime heating of the boundary layer will result in diurnal development of low-topped convection across the upper Ohio Valley/central Appalachians region. Some small hail may occur with the strongest cells, but should remain well below severe limits. Meanwhile in the West, a cold front associated with the western upper system will advance across Idaho, the Great Basin, and California. Weak instability ahead of the boundary from western Montana to northern Nevada will support convection and occasional lightning flashes. Meanwhile, post-frontal westerly upslope low-level flow behind the front, combined with cold air/steep lapse rates aloft associated with the upper low, will result in widespread showery convection and occasional lightning, across portions of California and possibly coastal Oregon. In both of these areas, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Thursday and Thursday night. ...Discussion... A highly amplified upper pattern will prevail across the U.S. Thursday, with a pair of closed upper lows -- one over the West and one over the East -- separated by a sharp central U.S. ridge. With a cold front associated with the eastern system already offshore, a cool airmass residing over the eastern half of the U.S. in its wake, precludes appreciable potential for strong/severe storms. Still, with cold air/steep lapse rates through the middle layer of the troposphere, daytime heating of the boundary layer will result in diurnal development of low-topped convection across the upper Ohio Valley/central Appalachians region. Some small hail may occur with the strongest cells, but should remain well below severe limits. Meanwhile in the West, a cold front associated with the western upper system will advance across Idaho, the Great Basin, and California. Weak instability ahead of the boundary from western Montana to northern Nevada will support convection and occasional lightning flashes. Meanwhile, post-frontal westerly upslope low-level flow behind the front, combined with cold air/steep lapse rates aloft associated with the upper low, will result in widespread showery convection and occasional lightning, across portions of California and possibly coastal Oregon. In both of these areas, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss.. 04/03/2024 Read more

MD 0368 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NC INTO VA...MD...AND DE
Mesoscale Discussion 0368 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Areas affected...Portions of northern NC into VA...MD...and DE Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 031520Z - 031715Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The threat for severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, a few tornadoes and perhaps some hail should gradually increase over the next couple of hours. Watch issuance will probably be needed. DISCUSSION...15Z surface observations show a front draped southwest to northeast across VA into MD/DE, with a surface low centered over southwest VA. This low is forecast to slowly deepen as it develops northeastward along the front towards central VA/MD by late this afternoon. Although clouds remain widespread across much of the Mid-Atlantic, a moist and gradually destabilizing airmass is present along/south of the front into NC. A lobe of ascent associated with the left exit region of a strong upper-level jet and a mid-level vorticity maximum over the central Appalachians will likely encourage additional convective development in the next 1-2 hours across western into central VA. This activity will likely become organized, with the potential for a mix of small bowing clusters and supercells possible given the presence of very strong deep-layer shear. Instability may tend to remain fairly muted given the widespread cloud cover. Still, MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg should eventually develop with continued low-level warming/moistening, and given steepened mid-level lapse rates noted on the 12Z RNK sounding. Damaging winds will be possible with any robust cluster that can develop and track northeastward. A tornado threat should exist with any supercell, as 0-1 km shear of 35-40 kt and ample effective SRH should encourage low-level updraft rotation. Isolated hail may also occur with any convection that can remain semi-discrete. Given expectations for a gradually increasing severe threat in the next 1-2 hours, watch issuance will probably be needed. ..Gleason/Thompson.. 04/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK... LAT...LON 36407975 36987971 37767885 38757723 38867601 38647503 38337502 37517552 36757638 36127742 36087899 36407975 Read more

WW 0086 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 86 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW CTY TO 20 SE CTY TO 35 ENE SGJ. ..GLEASON..04/03/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...MLB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 86 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-017-035-053-069-075-083-095-101-107-109-117-119-127- 031740- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA CITRUS FLAGLER HERNANDO LAKE LEVY MARION ORANGE PASCO PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SEMINOLE SUMTER VOLUSIA AMZ452-454-550-GMZ850-031740- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM Read more

WW 0085 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 85 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW JAX TO 15 NE SSI. WW 85 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 031700Z. ..GLEASON..04/03/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 85 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS AMZ450-031700- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0085 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 85 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW JAX TO 15 NE SSI. WW 85 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 031700Z. ..GLEASON..04/03/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 85 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS AMZ450-031700- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0085 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 85 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW JAX TO 15 NE SSI. WW 85 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 031700Z. ..GLEASON..04/03/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 85 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS AMZ450-031700- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0085 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 85 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW JAX TO 15 NE SSI. WW 85 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 031700Z. ..GLEASON..04/03/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 85 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS AMZ450-031700- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0085 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 85 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW JAX TO 15 NE SSI. WW 85 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 031700Z. ..GLEASON..04/03/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 85 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS AMZ450-031700- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0085 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 85 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW JAX TO 15 NE SSI. WW 85 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 031700Z. ..GLEASON..04/03/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 85 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS AMZ450-031700- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 85 TORNADO FL GA SC CW 030950Z - 031700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 85 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 550 AM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Florida Panhandle Southern Georgia Southern South Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday morning and afternoon from 550 AM until 100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Several broken bands of thunderstorms will continue to move generally west to east across the Watch area this morning. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms embedded within the larger thunderstorm clusters will pose a risk for damaging gusts and possibly a couple of tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north northwest of Savannah GA to 35 miles east southeast of Apalachicola FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 83...WW 84... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25040. ...Smith Read more

WW 0087 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0087 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0087 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0087 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN VA AND VICINITY...AND ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts will be possible this afternoon across eastern Virginia and vicinity, and across north and central Florida. ...Eastern VA/northern NC area this afternoon... A deep midlevel low near southern Lake MI will drift southeastward through early Thursday, while embedded speed maxima rotate northeastward through the southeastern periphery of the midlevel low (GA/north FL to VA). Secondary surface cyclogenesis is expected along a baroclinic zone across VA today, and this cyclone will move just off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight. Along and southeast of the cyclone track, a moistening warm sector is expected from NC into VA, where destabilization will become sufficient for additional thunderstorm development by midday. The warm sector will be characterized very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs, and sufficient low-level curvature/SRH for right-moving supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter this afternoon. ...North/central FL this afternoon... A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will continue to spread southeastward through the afternoon from north toward central FL. 50+ kt midlevel flow will be maintained through the afternoon as the warm sector gradually destabilizes as temperatures warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F. This will maintain the storms through the afternoon, with the potential for a few damaging gusts of 60-70 mph with embedded line segments, and potentially a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations and/or supercells that form just ahead of the main line of storms. Storm intensity is expected to wane by this evening/tonight as the storms move from central toward south FL. ...Southeast OR/ID this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will continue to amplify/dig southward near the Pacific Northwest coast. East of the trough, a gradual increase in midlevel flow from the southwest is expected through this evening, as well as a gradual increase in ascent along the deep-layer baroclinic zone from eastern OR into ID. Surface heating/mixing and modest low-midlevel moisture will contribute to inverted-V profiles with weak buoyancy along the baroclinic zone, and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for some organized storms. The net result should be a few cells/small clusters capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail (0.75-1 inch diameter hail) for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN VA AND VICINITY...AND ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts will be possible this afternoon across eastern Virginia and vicinity, and across north and central Florida. ...Eastern VA/northern NC area this afternoon... A deep midlevel low near southern Lake MI will drift southeastward through early Thursday, while embedded speed maxima rotate northeastward through the southeastern periphery of the midlevel low (GA/north FL to VA). Secondary surface cyclogenesis is expected along a baroclinic zone across VA today, and this cyclone will move just off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight. Along and southeast of the cyclone track, a moistening warm sector is expected from NC into VA, where destabilization will become sufficient for additional thunderstorm development by midday. The warm sector will be characterized very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs, and sufficient low-level curvature/SRH for right-moving supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter this afternoon. ...North/central FL this afternoon... A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will continue to spread southeastward through the afternoon from north toward central FL. 50+ kt midlevel flow will be maintained through the afternoon as the warm sector gradually destabilizes as temperatures warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F. This will maintain the storms through the afternoon, with the potential for a few damaging gusts of 60-70 mph with embedded line segments, and potentially a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations and/or supercells that form just ahead of the main line of storms. Storm intensity is expected to wane by this evening/tonight as the storms move from central toward south FL. ...Southeast OR/ID this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will continue to amplify/dig southward near the Pacific Northwest coast. East of the trough, a gradual increase in midlevel flow from the southwest is expected through this evening, as well as a gradual increase in ascent along the deep-layer baroclinic zone from eastern OR into ID. Surface heating/mixing and modest low-midlevel moisture will contribute to inverted-V profiles with weak buoyancy along the baroclinic zone, and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for some organized storms. The net result should be a few cells/small clusters capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail (0.75-1 inch diameter hail) for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN VA AND VICINITY...AND ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts will be possible this afternoon across eastern Virginia and vicinity, and across north and central Florida. ...Eastern VA/northern NC area this afternoon... A deep midlevel low near southern Lake MI will drift southeastward through early Thursday, while embedded speed maxima rotate northeastward through the southeastern periphery of the midlevel low (GA/north FL to VA). Secondary surface cyclogenesis is expected along a baroclinic zone across VA today, and this cyclone will move just off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight. Along and southeast of the cyclone track, a moistening warm sector is expected from NC into VA, where destabilization will become sufficient for additional thunderstorm development by midday. The warm sector will be characterized very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs, and sufficient low-level curvature/SRH for right-moving supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter this afternoon. ...North/central FL this afternoon... A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will continue to spread southeastward through the afternoon from north toward central FL. 50+ kt midlevel flow will be maintained through the afternoon as the warm sector gradually destabilizes as temperatures warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F. This will maintain the storms through the afternoon, with the potential for a few damaging gusts of 60-70 mph with embedded line segments, and potentially a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations and/or supercells that form just ahead of the main line of storms. Storm intensity is expected to wane by this evening/tonight as the storms move from central toward south FL. ...Southeast OR/ID this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will continue to amplify/dig southward near the Pacific Northwest coast. East of the trough, a gradual increase in midlevel flow from the southwest is expected through this evening, as well as a gradual increase in ascent along the deep-layer baroclinic zone from eastern OR into ID. Surface heating/mixing and modest low-midlevel moisture will contribute to inverted-V profiles with weak buoyancy along the baroclinic zone, and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for some organized storms. The net result should be a few cells/small clusters capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail (0.75-1 inch diameter hail) for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN VA AND VICINITY...AND ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts will be possible this afternoon across eastern Virginia and vicinity, and across north and central Florida. ...Eastern VA/northern NC area this afternoon... A deep midlevel low near southern Lake MI will drift southeastward through early Thursday, while embedded speed maxima rotate northeastward through the southeastern periphery of the midlevel low (GA/north FL to VA). Secondary surface cyclogenesis is expected along a baroclinic zone across VA today, and this cyclone will move just off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight. Along and southeast of the cyclone track, a moistening warm sector is expected from NC into VA, where destabilization will become sufficient for additional thunderstorm development by midday. The warm sector will be characterized very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs, and sufficient low-level curvature/SRH for right-moving supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter this afternoon. ...North/central FL this afternoon... A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will continue to spread southeastward through the afternoon from north toward central FL. 50+ kt midlevel flow will be maintained through the afternoon as the warm sector gradually destabilizes as temperatures warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F. This will maintain the storms through the afternoon, with the potential for a few damaging gusts of 60-70 mph with embedded line segments, and potentially a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations and/or supercells that form just ahead of the main line of storms. Storm intensity is expected to wane by this evening/tonight as the storms move from central toward south FL. ...Southeast OR/ID this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will continue to amplify/dig southward near the Pacific Northwest coast. East of the trough, a gradual increase in midlevel flow from the southwest is expected through this evening, as well as a gradual increase in ascent along the deep-layer baroclinic zone from eastern OR into ID. Surface heating/mixing and modest low-midlevel moisture will contribute to inverted-V profiles with weak buoyancy along the baroclinic zone, and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for some organized storms. The net result should be a few cells/small clusters capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail (0.75-1 inch diameter hail) for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN VA AND VICINITY...AND ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts will be possible this afternoon across eastern Virginia and vicinity, and across north and central Florida. ...Eastern VA/northern NC area this afternoon... A deep midlevel low near southern Lake MI will drift southeastward through early Thursday, while embedded speed maxima rotate northeastward through the southeastern periphery of the midlevel low (GA/north FL to VA). Secondary surface cyclogenesis is expected along a baroclinic zone across VA today, and this cyclone will move just off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight. Along and southeast of the cyclone track, a moistening warm sector is expected from NC into VA, where destabilization will become sufficient for additional thunderstorm development by midday. The warm sector will be characterized very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs, and sufficient low-level curvature/SRH for right-moving supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter this afternoon. ...North/central FL this afternoon... A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will continue to spread southeastward through the afternoon from north toward central FL. 50+ kt midlevel flow will be maintained through the afternoon as the warm sector gradually destabilizes as temperatures warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F. This will maintain the storms through the afternoon, with the potential for a few damaging gusts of 60-70 mph with embedded line segments, and potentially a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations and/or supercells that form just ahead of the main line of storms. Storm intensity is expected to wane by this evening/tonight as the storms move from central toward south FL. ...Southeast OR/ID this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will continue to amplify/dig southward near the Pacific Northwest coast. East of the trough, a gradual increase in midlevel flow from the southwest is expected through this evening, as well as a gradual increase in ascent along the deep-layer baroclinic zone from eastern OR into ID. Surface heating/mixing and modest low-midlevel moisture will contribute to inverted-V profiles with weak buoyancy along the baroclinic zone, and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for some organized storms. The net result should be a few cells/small clusters capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail (0.75-1 inch diameter hail) for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/03/2024 Read more