SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024
Valid 051700Z - 061200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...
No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook.
Critical fire weather conditions are expected across the southern to
central High Plains this afternoon. Morning visible satellite
imagery shows mostly sunny conditions across much of western Texas
and southern New Mexico with broken high clouds into northern New
Mexico/Colorado/Texas Panhandle. Humidity across the Critical region
is largely below 20 percent as of 16z, with winds gusting 30-40 mph.
While some increase in high clouds is expected through the day,
daytime heating and mixing will support further relative humidity
reductions, dropping as low as 10-15%. As previously mentioned,
localized areas of Extremely Critical fire weather will be possible,
most likely over east-central Colorado. Given the low confidence in
coverage of these conditions, the current outlook covers the threat
appropriately with no updates needed.
..Thornton.. 04/05/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024/
...Synopsis...
...Southern to Central High Plains...
Today will be the first of two days of widespread critical fire
weather conditions - particularly across the southern High Plains.
Early-morning surface observations are showing poor overnight RH
recovery (10-30% as of 06 UTC) across southeast NM and
west/southwest TX to eastern CO. No appreciable moisture return will
maintain this unseasonably dry air mass (dewpoints near the 10th
percentile for early April) over the next two days. Meanwhile across
the West Coast, a strong upper-level trough is noted in water-vapor
imagery moving onto the CA coast. Slow, but steady pressure falls
are noted along the High Plains as this feature shifts east, with a
more robust low-level mass response anticipated through the day.
This will promote widespread sustained winds between 20-25 mph
(gusting to 35-45 mph) across the southern to central High Plains.
Latest ensemble guidance suggests RH values will fall into the
10-15% range for most locations, though localized areas of
single-digit RH is possible. This will most likely occur over areas
that can maintain mostly clear skies through mid/late afternoon,
allowing for stronger surface heating and deeper boundary-layer
mixing. Confidence in the coverage of sub-10% RH is limited based on
spread in recent guidance, but recent high-res solutions suggests
this may be most likely over east-central CO. Consequently, pockets
of extremely critical conditions are possible with more widespread,
sustained critical conditions expected. Recent fuel analyses show
that 1 and 10-hour fuels are either currently receptive or should
see sufficient drying to support the fire weather threat.
...Wyoming into Montana...
Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected
across eastern to northeast WY and southeast MT this afternoon.
Surface pressure falls across the northern High Plains should
promote a strengthening pressure gradient and widespread 15-25 mph
winds with afternoon RH minimums in the 15-25% range. Additionally,
a modest influx of mid-level moisture coupled with broad scale
ascent may support a few isolated thunderstorms. Given the dry,
deeply-mixed boundary layers over the region and PWAT values well
below 0.5 inch, a few dry thunderstorms are possible.
...North Dakota...
Sustained winds between 20-25 mph appear likely across much of
central ND this afternoon. Dry conditions were noted yesterday
across this region, and limited moisture return, coupled with
diurnal heating, should promote RH reductions into the 20-30% range
this afternoon. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions
are expected, but modest fuel receptiveness precludes higher risk
highlights.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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