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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL NE INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible across parts of the central Plains this afternoon and early evening. Severe wind gusts, isolated hail, and a couple tornadoes will all be possible. ...Central Plains vicinity... A deep upper-level trough will take on an increasingly negative tilt as it ejects into the central Plains later today. A strong mid/upper-level jet (with 80-100 kt at 500 mb) will move through the base of the trough and overspread the warm sector of a deepening cyclone centered over the central High Plains. A cold front will move eastward across KS/OK through the day, with an occluded portion of the front expected to extend northwestward from north-central KS into western/central NE. While the synoptic pattern favors severe-thunderstorm potential across parts of the central Plains, the threat will be mitigated to some extent by limited low-level moisture. Dewpoints are likely to remain in the 40s F across most of NE, and only reach the low 50s F into parts of central KS. However, diurnal heating beneath cold temperatures aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE increasing to near 500 J/kg. Strong ascent attendant to the ejecting upper-level trough will aid in storm development by early afternoon near the occluded front across central/western NE, with development possible into northern/central KS by mid/late afternoon. Strengthening midlevel flow will support sufficient effective shear for storm organization. A few low-topped supercells are expected, though there may be a tendency toward more linear storm modes with time as strong forcing overspreads the region. Marginal instability will tend to limit the hail threat to some extent, though any sustained supercell could produce isolated hail in the 1-1.5 inch diameter range. While the tornado threat may tend to be limited by sparse low-level moisture, sufficient low-level shear/SRH could support at least a brief tornado threat with any stronger sustained supercell, especially in closer proximity to the surface low. A corridor of greater tornado probabilities may eventually be needed if observational trends support more favorable low-level moisture, and/or if confidence increases in potential for longer-lived supercells. Otherwise, severe wind gusts in the 60-75 mph range may be the most likely hazard, as low-level lapse rates steepen, deep-layer flow strengthens, and convection takes on a more linear mode with time. While the primary severe threat is expected from southwest/central NE into central/eastern KS, some threat could spread into eastern NE before convection weakens by late evening. A strong storm or two could also develop by early evening across southeast KS and eastern OK, in response to gradually increasing moisture along/ahead of the cold front. ..Dean/Moore.. 04/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL NE INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible across parts of the central Plains this afternoon and early evening. Severe wind gusts, isolated hail, and a couple tornadoes will all be possible. ...Central Plains vicinity... A deep upper-level trough will take on an increasingly negative tilt as it ejects into the central Plains later today. A strong mid/upper-level jet (with 80-100 kt at 500 mb) will move through the base of the trough and overspread the warm sector of a deepening cyclone centered over the central High Plains. A cold front will move eastward across KS/OK through the day, with an occluded portion of the front expected to extend northwestward from north-central KS into western/central NE. While the synoptic pattern favors severe-thunderstorm potential across parts of the central Plains, the threat will be mitigated to some extent by limited low-level moisture. Dewpoints are likely to remain in the 40s F across most of NE, and only reach the low 50s F into parts of central KS. However, diurnal heating beneath cold temperatures aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE increasing to near 500 J/kg. Strong ascent attendant to the ejecting upper-level trough will aid in storm development by early afternoon near the occluded front across central/western NE, with development possible into northern/central KS by mid/late afternoon. Strengthening midlevel flow will support sufficient effective shear for storm organization. A few low-topped supercells are expected, though there may be a tendency toward more linear storm modes with time as strong forcing overspreads the region. Marginal instability will tend to limit the hail threat to some extent, though any sustained supercell could produce isolated hail in the 1-1.5 inch diameter range. While the tornado threat may tend to be limited by sparse low-level moisture, sufficient low-level shear/SRH could support at least a brief tornado threat with any stronger sustained supercell, especially in closer proximity to the surface low. A corridor of greater tornado probabilities may eventually be needed if observational trends support more favorable low-level moisture, and/or if confidence increases in potential for longer-lived supercells. Otherwise, severe wind gusts in the 60-75 mph range may be the most likely hazard, as low-level lapse rates steepen, deep-layer flow strengthens, and convection takes on a more linear mode with time. While the primary severe threat is expected from southwest/central NE into central/eastern KS, some threat could spread into eastern NE before convection weakens by late evening. A strong storm or two could also develop by early evening across southeast KS and eastern OK, in response to gradually increasing moisture along/ahead of the cold front. ..Dean/Moore.. 04/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL NE INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible across parts of the central Plains this afternoon and early evening. Severe wind gusts, isolated hail, and a couple tornadoes will all be possible. ...Central Plains vicinity... A deep upper-level trough will take on an increasingly negative tilt as it ejects into the central Plains later today. A strong mid/upper-level jet (with 80-100 kt at 500 mb) will move through the base of the trough and overspread the warm sector of a deepening cyclone centered over the central High Plains. A cold front will move eastward across KS/OK through the day, with an occluded portion of the front expected to extend northwestward from north-central KS into western/central NE. While the synoptic pattern favors severe-thunderstorm potential across parts of the central Plains, the threat will be mitigated to some extent by limited low-level moisture. Dewpoints are likely to remain in the 40s F across most of NE, and only reach the low 50s F into parts of central KS. However, diurnal heating beneath cold temperatures aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE increasing to near 500 J/kg. Strong ascent attendant to the ejecting upper-level trough will aid in storm development by early afternoon near the occluded front across central/western NE, with development possible into northern/central KS by mid/late afternoon. Strengthening midlevel flow will support sufficient effective shear for storm organization. A few low-topped supercells are expected, though there may be a tendency toward more linear storm modes with time as strong forcing overspreads the region. Marginal instability will tend to limit the hail threat to some extent, though any sustained supercell could produce isolated hail in the 1-1.5 inch diameter range. While the tornado threat may tend to be limited by sparse low-level moisture, sufficient low-level shear/SRH could support at least a brief tornado threat with any stronger sustained supercell, especially in closer proximity to the surface low. A corridor of greater tornado probabilities may eventually be needed if observational trends support more favorable low-level moisture, and/or if confidence increases in potential for longer-lived supercells. Otherwise, severe wind gusts in the 60-75 mph range may be the most likely hazard, as low-level lapse rates steepen, deep-layer flow strengthens, and convection takes on a more linear mode with time. While the primary severe threat is expected from southwest/central NE into central/eastern KS, some threat could spread into eastern NE before convection weakens by late evening. A strong storm or two could also develop by early evening across southeast KS and eastern OK, in response to gradually increasing moisture along/ahead of the cold front. ..Dean/Moore.. 04/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL NE INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible across parts of the central Plains this afternoon and early evening. Severe wind gusts, isolated hail, and a couple tornadoes will all be possible. ...Central Plains vicinity... A deep upper-level trough will take on an increasingly negative tilt as it ejects into the central Plains later today. A strong mid/upper-level jet (with 80-100 kt at 500 mb) will move through the base of the trough and overspread the warm sector of a deepening cyclone centered over the central High Plains. A cold front will move eastward across KS/OK through the day, with an occluded portion of the front expected to extend northwestward from north-central KS into western/central NE. While the synoptic pattern favors severe-thunderstorm potential across parts of the central Plains, the threat will be mitigated to some extent by limited low-level moisture. Dewpoints are likely to remain in the 40s F across most of NE, and only reach the low 50s F into parts of central KS. However, diurnal heating beneath cold temperatures aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE increasing to near 500 J/kg. Strong ascent attendant to the ejecting upper-level trough will aid in storm development by early afternoon near the occluded front across central/western NE, with development possible into northern/central KS by mid/late afternoon. Strengthening midlevel flow will support sufficient effective shear for storm organization. A few low-topped supercells are expected, though there may be a tendency toward more linear storm modes with time as strong forcing overspreads the region. Marginal instability will tend to limit the hail threat to some extent, though any sustained supercell could produce isolated hail in the 1-1.5 inch diameter range. While the tornado threat may tend to be limited by sparse low-level moisture, sufficient low-level shear/SRH could support at least a brief tornado threat with any stronger sustained supercell, especially in closer proximity to the surface low. A corridor of greater tornado probabilities may eventually be needed if observational trends support more favorable low-level moisture, and/or if confidence increases in potential for longer-lived supercells. Otherwise, severe wind gusts in the 60-75 mph range may be the most likely hazard, as low-level lapse rates steepen, deep-layer flow strengthens, and convection takes on a more linear mode with time. While the primary severe threat is expected from southwest/central NE into central/eastern KS, some threat could spread into eastern NE before convection weakens by late evening. A strong storm or two could also develop by early evening across southeast KS and eastern OK, in response to gradually increasing moisture along/ahead of the cold front. ..Dean/Moore.. 04/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL NE INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible across parts of the central Plains this afternoon and early evening. Severe wind gusts, isolated hail, and a couple tornadoes will all be possible. ...Central Plains vicinity... A deep upper-level trough will take on an increasingly negative tilt as it ejects into the central Plains later today. A strong mid/upper-level jet (with 80-100 kt at 500 mb) will move through the base of the trough and overspread the warm sector of a deepening cyclone centered over the central High Plains. A cold front will move eastward across KS/OK through the day, with an occluded portion of the front expected to extend northwestward from north-central KS into western/central NE. While the synoptic pattern favors severe-thunderstorm potential across parts of the central Plains, the threat will be mitigated to some extent by limited low-level moisture. Dewpoints are likely to remain in the 40s F across most of NE, and only reach the low 50s F into parts of central KS. However, diurnal heating beneath cold temperatures aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE increasing to near 500 J/kg. Strong ascent attendant to the ejecting upper-level trough will aid in storm development by early afternoon near the occluded front across central/western NE, with development possible into northern/central KS by mid/late afternoon. Strengthening midlevel flow will support sufficient effective shear for storm organization. A few low-topped supercells are expected, though there may be a tendency toward more linear storm modes with time as strong forcing overspreads the region. Marginal instability will tend to limit the hail threat to some extent, though any sustained supercell could produce isolated hail in the 1-1.5 inch diameter range. While the tornado threat may tend to be limited by sparse low-level moisture, sufficient low-level shear/SRH could support at least a brief tornado threat with any stronger sustained supercell, especially in closer proximity to the surface low. A corridor of greater tornado probabilities may eventually be needed if observational trends support more favorable low-level moisture, and/or if confidence increases in potential for longer-lived supercells. Otherwise, severe wind gusts in the 60-75 mph range may be the most likely hazard, as low-level lapse rates steepen, deep-layer flow strengthens, and convection takes on a more linear mode with time. While the primary severe threat is expected from southwest/central NE into central/eastern KS, some threat could spread into eastern NE before convection weakens by late evening. A strong storm or two could also develop by early evening across southeast KS and eastern OK, in response to gradually increasing moisture along/ahead of the cold front. ..Dean/Moore.. 04/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm potential appears low for the remainder of tonight. ...Southwest/south-central MT... A few strong storms are ongoing this evening across parts of southwest into south-central MT, in the vicinity of an east-west oriented surface front. Steep lapse rates are supporting MLCAPE near 500 J/kg, though this should tend to diminish with time (along with an increase in MLCINH) as nocturnal cooling commences and the strongest remaining storms eventually move well north of the front. A short-term threat for winds of 50-60 mph and at least small hail may persist into mid evening before a more definitive weakening trend begins. ...Parts of central/southern CA... Low-topped convection will persist across parts of central/southern CA through the evening, supported by steep lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft (with 500 mb temperatures around -30C noted on 00Z OAK and VBG soundings). Small hail and gusty winds could continue to accompany the strongest convection before storm coverage diminishes later tonight. ..Dean.. 04/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm potential appears low for the remainder of tonight. ...Southwest/south-central MT... A few strong storms are ongoing this evening across parts of southwest into south-central MT, in the vicinity of an east-west oriented surface front. Steep lapse rates are supporting MLCAPE near 500 J/kg, though this should tend to diminish with time (along with an increase in MLCINH) as nocturnal cooling commences and the strongest remaining storms eventually move well north of the front. A short-term threat for winds of 50-60 mph and at least small hail may persist into mid evening before a more definitive weakening trend begins. ...Parts of central/southern CA... Low-topped convection will persist across parts of central/southern CA through the evening, supported by steep lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft (with 500 mb temperatures around -30C noted on 00Z OAK and VBG soundings). Small hail and gusty winds could continue to accompany the strongest convection before storm coverage diminishes later tonight. ..Dean.. 04/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm potential appears low for the remainder of tonight. ...Southwest/south-central MT... A few strong storms are ongoing this evening across parts of southwest into south-central MT, in the vicinity of an east-west oriented surface front. Steep lapse rates are supporting MLCAPE near 500 J/kg, though this should tend to diminish with time (along with an increase in MLCINH) as nocturnal cooling commences and the strongest remaining storms eventually move well north of the front. A short-term threat for winds of 50-60 mph and at least small hail may persist into mid evening before a more definitive weakening trend begins. ...Parts of central/southern CA... Low-topped convection will persist across parts of central/southern CA through the evening, supported by steep lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft (with 500 mb temperatures around -30C noted on 00Z OAK and VBG soundings). Small hail and gusty winds could continue to accompany the strongest convection before storm coverage diminishes later tonight. ..Dean.. 04/06/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Apr 5 22:31:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Apr 5 22:31:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z An active pattern will continue to support multiple periods of increased fire weather potential across the southern High Plains through the extended period. The best potential for Critical fire weather conditions will be on D3 - Sunday across the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... A belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow will persist across the southern High Plains on D3 - Sunday, with continued downslope drying amid a tight surface pressure gradient. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of far western and southwestern Texas into eastern New Mexico. The best overlap of receptive fuels with Critical meteorological conditions is expected from east-central New Mexico into the southern Texas Panhandle. 70 percent probabilities were maintained with this outlook with a broader 40 percent delineation where winds are expected to be lighter but relative humidity may drop as low as 10 percent. Elevated to critical conditions could redevelop across the southern High Plains on Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday -- ahead of another low-latitude trough over the West. 40-percent Critical probabilities are in place for this, though confidence in the development of any more than locally critical conditions is too low for higher probabilities at this time. ..Thornton.. 04/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z An active pattern will continue to support multiple periods of increased fire weather potential across the southern High Plains through the extended period. The best potential for Critical fire weather conditions will be on D3 - Sunday across the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... A belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow will persist across the southern High Plains on D3 - Sunday, with continued downslope drying amid a tight surface pressure gradient. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of far western and southwestern Texas into eastern New Mexico. The best overlap of receptive fuels with Critical meteorological conditions is expected from east-central New Mexico into the southern Texas Panhandle. 70 percent probabilities were maintained with this outlook with a broader 40 percent delineation where winds are expected to be lighter but relative humidity may drop as low as 10 percent. Elevated to critical conditions could redevelop across the southern High Plains on Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday -- ahead of another low-latitude trough over the West. 40-percent Critical probabilities are in place for this, though confidence in the development of any more than locally critical conditions is too low for higher probabilities at this time. ..Thornton.. 04/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z An active pattern will continue to support multiple periods of increased fire weather potential across the southern High Plains through the extended period. The best potential for Critical fire weather conditions will be on D3 - Sunday across the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... A belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow will persist across the southern High Plains on D3 - Sunday, with continued downslope drying amid a tight surface pressure gradient. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of far western and southwestern Texas into eastern New Mexico. The best overlap of receptive fuels with Critical meteorological conditions is expected from east-central New Mexico into the southern Texas Panhandle. 70 percent probabilities were maintained with this outlook with a broader 40 percent delineation where winds are expected to be lighter but relative humidity may drop as low as 10 percent. Elevated to critical conditions could redevelop across the southern High Plains on Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday -- ahead of another low-latitude trough over the West. 40-percent Critical probabilities are in place for this, though confidence in the development of any more than locally critical conditions is too low for higher probabilities at this time. ..Thornton.. 04/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z An active pattern will continue to support multiple periods of increased fire weather potential across the southern High Plains through the extended period. The best potential for Critical fire weather conditions will be on D3 - Sunday across the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... A belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow will persist across the southern High Plains on D3 - Sunday, with continued downslope drying amid a tight surface pressure gradient. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of far western and southwestern Texas into eastern New Mexico. The best overlap of receptive fuels with Critical meteorological conditions is expected from east-central New Mexico into the southern Texas Panhandle. 70 percent probabilities were maintained with this outlook with a broader 40 percent delineation where winds are expected to be lighter but relative humidity may drop as low as 10 percent. Elevated to critical conditions could redevelop across the southern High Plains on Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday -- ahead of another low-latitude trough over the West. 40-percent Critical probabilities are in place for this, though confidence in the development of any more than locally critical conditions is too low for higher probabilities at this time. ..Thornton.. 04/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z Critical fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern and central High Plains on Days 3-4/Saturday-Sunday, where fuels have become increasingly receptive to large-fire spread. A fire-weather outbreak is possible over parts of the southern High Plains on Day 3/Saturday, with the greatest potential over portions of the Texas Panhandle. ...Days 3-4/Saturday-Sunday - Southern/Central High Plains... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, a 100-kt 500-mb jet will overspread the southern High Plains on Day 3/Saturday. At the same time, a related lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline advances eastward across the southern Plains -- which will be overtaken by a Pacific front. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind the front (extending into the strong flow aloft), coupled with a tightening surface pressure gradient, will yield 25-35 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 50 mph) and 10-15 percent RH. Some of the strongest surface winds and lowest RH is expected over parts of the TX Panhandle, and given increasingly dry/loaded fuels here, a fire-weather outbreak is possible. The primary limiting factor will be relatively cool surface temperatures behind the Pacific front, though the strong winds and low RH could compensate for this. Thereafter, a belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow will persist across the southern High Plains, and given continued downslope drying amid a tight surface pressure gradient, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Elevated to critical conditions could redevelop across the southern High Plains on Days 5-6/Monday-Tuesday -- ahead of another low-latitude trough over the West. 40-percent Critical probabilities are in place for this, though confidence in the development of any more than locally critical conditions is too low for higher probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 04/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z Critical fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern and central High Plains on Days 3-4/Saturday-Sunday, where fuels have become increasingly receptive to large-fire spread. A fire-weather outbreak is possible over parts of the southern High Plains on Day 3/Saturday, with the greatest potential over portions of the Texas Panhandle. ...Days 3-4/Saturday-Sunday - Southern/Central High Plains... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, a 100-kt 500-mb jet will overspread the southern High Plains on Day 3/Saturday. At the same time, a related lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline advances eastward across the southern Plains -- which will be overtaken by a Pacific front. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind the front (extending into the strong flow aloft), coupled with a tightening surface pressure gradient, will yield 25-35 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 50 mph) and 10-15 percent RH. Some of the strongest surface winds and lowest RH is expected over parts of the TX Panhandle, and given increasingly dry/loaded fuels here, a fire-weather outbreak is possible. The primary limiting factor will be relatively cool surface temperatures behind the Pacific front, though the strong winds and low RH could compensate for this. Thereafter, a belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow will persist across the southern High Plains, and given continued downslope drying amid a tight surface pressure gradient, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Elevated to critical conditions could redevelop across the southern High Plains on Days 5-6/Monday-Tuesday -- ahead of another low-latitude trough over the West. 40-percent Critical probabilities are in place for this, though confidence in the development of any more than locally critical conditions is too low for higher probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 04/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z Critical fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern and central High Plains on Days 3-4/Saturday-Sunday, where fuels have become increasingly receptive to large-fire spread. A fire-weather outbreak is possible over parts of the southern High Plains on Day 3/Saturday, with the greatest potential over portions of the Texas Panhandle. ...Days 3-4/Saturday-Sunday - Southern/Central High Plains... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, a 100-kt 500-mb jet will overspread the southern High Plains on Day 3/Saturday. At the same time, a related lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline advances eastward across the southern Plains -- which will be overtaken by a Pacific front. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind the front (extending into the strong flow aloft), coupled with a tightening surface pressure gradient, will yield 25-35 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 50 mph) and 10-15 percent RH. Some of the strongest surface winds and lowest RH is expected over parts of the TX Panhandle, and given increasingly dry/loaded fuels here, a fire-weather outbreak is possible. The primary limiting factor will be relatively cool surface temperatures behind the Pacific front, though the strong winds and low RH could compensate for this. Thereafter, a belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow will persist across the southern High Plains, and given continued downslope drying amid a tight surface pressure gradient, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Elevated to critical conditions could redevelop across the southern High Plains on Days 5-6/Monday-Tuesday -- ahead of another low-latitude trough over the West. 40-percent Critical probabilities are in place for this, though confidence in the development of any more than locally critical conditions is too low for higher probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 04/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Though no Extremely Critical areas were added with this outlook, hi-res guidance from the HREF continues to show around 10-30% probability of Extremely Critical conditions across the northern Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma Panhandle into far southeastern Colorado. Deterministic models continue to show significant spread in wind speeds and minimum relative humidity but it seems likely that localized Extremely Critical conditions will be possible, mainly across the northern Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma Panhandle. Should confidence increase in more widespread conditions, an Extremely Critical may be needed with the upcoming transition to D1. ..Thornton.. 04/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... The second of a two-day fire weather event is anticipated on Saturday across southern NM/far west TX to southeast CO and southwest KS. Robust lee cyclogenesis is anticipated across the central High Plains by 18 UTC Saturday as a progressive upper-level wave (currently moving onto the CA coast) overspreads the region. The surface low is forecast to shift east into the Plains through the afternoon with a trailing surface trough/Pacific front pushing east across the southern High Plains by late morning. As this occurs, west/northwesterly post-frontal winds will advect a dry air mass off the central/southern Rockies into the High Plains. Downslope warming/drying of this air mass will promote widespread RH reductions into the 10-20% range across NM, western TX, and portions of OK/CO/KS. Latest high-res ensemble guidance shows reasonably high confidence in sub-15% RH within the critical risk area, and the typically drier/windier solutions hint that single-digit RH minimums are possible. Winds are expected to increase to 20-25 mph (gusting to 40-50 mph) by early afternoon amid a strengthening surface pressure gradient and deepening boundary-layer mixing. Sustained winds between 30-35 mph winds possible under the mid-level jet maximum, which should be located broadly across the northern TX and OK Panhandles. This region will see the highest potential for extremely critical fire weather conditions. Consideration was given to introducing an Extremely Critical risk area, but somewhat low ensemble consensus for sustained 30+ mph winds (only 10-30% probability) precluded higher risk headlines. These low probabilities may be associated with spread regarding the placement and magnitude of the surface low (up to a 4 mb difference between some solutions). These details should become better resolved heading into the Day-1 time frame. Regardless, fuels across the region should be very receptive after warm, dry, and windy conditions on Friday, which should support the high-end Critical fire weather risk on Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Though no Extremely Critical areas were added with this outlook, hi-res guidance from the HREF continues to show around 10-30% probability of Extremely Critical conditions across the northern Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma Panhandle into far southeastern Colorado. Deterministic models continue to show significant spread in wind speeds and minimum relative humidity but it seems likely that localized Extremely Critical conditions will be possible, mainly across the northern Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma Panhandle. Should confidence increase in more widespread conditions, an Extremely Critical may be needed with the upcoming transition to D1. ..Thornton.. 04/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... The second of a two-day fire weather event is anticipated on Saturday across southern NM/far west TX to southeast CO and southwest KS. Robust lee cyclogenesis is anticipated across the central High Plains by 18 UTC Saturday as a progressive upper-level wave (currently moving onto the CA coast) overspreads the region. The surface low is forecast to shift east into the Plains through the afternoon with a trailing surface trough/Pacific front pushing east across the southern High Plains by late morning. As this occurs, west/northwesterly post-frontal winds will advect a dry air mass off the central/southern Rockies into the High Plains. Downslope warming/drying of this air mass will promote widespread RH reductions into the 10-20% range across NM, western TX, and portions of OK/CO/KS. Latest high-res ensemble guidance shows reasonably high confidence in sub-15% RH within the critical risk area, and the typically drier/windier solutions hint that single-digit RH minimums are possible. Winds are expected to increase to 20-25 mph (gusting to 40-50 mph) by early afternoon amid a strengthening surface pressure gradient and deepening boundary-layer mixing. Sustained winds between 30-35 mph winds possible under the mid-level jet maximum, which should be located broadly across the northern TX and OK Panhandles. This region will see the highest potential for extremely critical fire weather conditions. Consideration was given to introducing an Extremely Critical risk area, but somewhat low ensemble consensus for sustained 30+ mph winds (only 10-30% probability) precluded higher risk headlines. These low probabilities may be associated with spread regarding the placement and magnitude of the surface low (up to a 4 mb difference between some solutions). These details should become better resolved heading into the Day-1 time frame. Regardless, fuels across the region should be very receptive after warm, dry, and windy conditions on Friday, which should support the high-end Critical fire weather risk on Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Though no Extremely Critical areas were added with this outlook, hi-res guidance from the HREF continues to show around 10-30% probability of Extremely Critical conditions across the northern Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma Panhandle into far southeastern Colorado. Deterministic models continue to show significant spread in wind speeds and minimum relative humidity but it seems likely that localized Extremely Critical conditions will be possible, mainly across the northern Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma Panhandle. Should confidence increase in more widespread conditions, an Extremely Critical may be needed with the upcoming transition to D1. ..Thornton.. 04/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... The second of a two-day fire weather event is anticipated on Saturday across southern NM/far west TX to southeast CO and southwest KS. Robust lee cyclogenesis is anticipated across the central High Plains by 18 UTC Saturday as a progressive upper-level wave (currently moving onto the CA coast) overspreads the region. The surface low is forecast to shift east into the Plains through the afternoon with a trailing surface trough/Pacific front pushing east across the southern High Plains by late morning. As this occurs, west/northwesterly post-frontal winds will advect a dry air mass off the central/southern Rockies into the High Plains. Downslope warming/drying of this air mass will promote widespread RH reductions into the 10-20% range across NM, western TX, and portions of OK/CO/KS. Latest high-res ensemble guidance shows reasonably high confidence in sub-15% RH within the critical risk area, and the typically drier/windier solutions hint that single-digit RH minimums are possible. Winds are expected to increase to 20-25 mph (gusting to 40-50 mph) by early afternoon amid a strengthening surface pressure gradient and deepening boundary-layer mixing. Sustained winds between 30-35 mph winds possible under the mid-level jet maximum, which should be located broadly across the northern TX and OK Panhandles. This region will see the highest potential for extremely critical fire weather conditions. Consideration was given to introducing an Extremely Critical risk area, but somewhat low ensemble consensus for sustained 30+ mph winds (only 10-30% probability) precluded higher risk headlines. These low probabilities may be associated with spread regarding the placement and magnitude of the surface low (up to a 4 mb difference between some solutions). These details should become better resolved heading into the Day-1 time frame. Regardless, fuels across the region should be very receptive after warm, dry, and windy conditions on Friday, which should support the high-end Critical fire weather risk on Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more