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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z An active pattern will continue to support multiple periods of increased fire weather potential across the southern High Plains through the extended period. The best potential for Critical fire weather conditions will be on D3 - Sunday across the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... A belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow will persist across the southern High Plains on D3 - Sunday, with continued downslope drying amid a tight surface pressure gradient. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of far western and southwestern Texas into eastern New Mexico. The best overlap of receptive fuels with Critical meteorological conditions is expected from east-central New Mexico into the southern Texas Panhandle. 70 percent probabilities were maintained with this outlook with a broader 40 percent delineation where winds are expected to be lighter but relative humidity may drop as low as 10 percent. Elevated to critical conditions could redevelop across the southern High Plains on Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday -- ahead of another low-latitude trough over the West. 40-percent Critical probabilities are in place for this, though confidence in the development of any more than locally critical conditions is too low for higher probabilities at this time. ..Thornton.. 04/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z An active pattern will continue to support multiple periods of increased fire weather potential across the southern High Plains through the extended period. The best potential for Critical fire weather conditions will be on D3 - Sunday across the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... A belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow will persist across the southern High Plains on D3 - Sunday, with continued downslope drying amid a tight surface pressure gradient. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of far western and southwestern Texas into eastern New Mexico. The best overlap of receptive fuels with Critical meteorological conditions is expected from east-central New Mexico into the southern Texas Panhandle. 70 percent probabilities were maintained with this outlook with a broader 40 percent delineation where winds are expected to be lighter but relative humidity may drop as low as 10 percent. Elevated to critical conditions could redevelop across the southern High Plains on Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday -- ahead of another low-latitude trough over the West. 40-percent Critical probabilities are in place for this, though confidence in the development of any more than locally critical conditions is too low for higher probabilities at this time. ..Thornton.. 04/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z An active pattern will continue to support multiple periods of increased fire weather potential across the southern High Plains through the extended period. The best potential for Critical fire weather conditions will be on D3 - Sunday across the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... A belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow will persist across the southern High Plains on D3 - Sunday, with continued downslope drying amid a tight surface pressure gradient. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of far western and southwestern Texas into eastern New Mexico. The best overlap of receptive fuels with Critical meteorological conditions is expected from east-central New Mexico into the southern Texas Panhandle. 70 percent probabilities were maintained with this outlook with a broader 40 percent delineation where winds are expected to be lighter but relative humidity may drop as low as 10 percent. Elevated to critical conditions could redevelop across the southern High Plains on Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday -- ahead of another low-latitude trough over the West. 40-percent Critical probabilities are in place for this, though confidence in the development of any more than locally critical conditions is too low for higher probabilities at this time. ..Thornton.. 04/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z An active pattern will continue to support multiple periods of increased fire weather potential across the southern High Plains through the extended period. The best potential for Critical fire weather conditions will be on D3 - Sunday across the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... A belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow will persist across the southern High Plains on D3 - Sunday, with continued downslope drying amid a tight surface pressure gradient. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of far western and southwestern Texas into eastern New Mexico. The best overlap of receptive fuels with Critical meteorological conditions is expected from east-central New Mexico into the southern Texas Panhandle. 70 percent probabilities were maintained with this outlook with a broader 40 percent delineation where winds are expected to be lighter but relative humidity may drop as low as 10 percent. Elevated to critical conditions could redevelop across the southern High Plains on Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday -- ahead of another low-latitude trough over the West. 40-percent Critical probabilities are in place for this, though confidence in the development of any more than locally critical conditions is too low for higher probabilities at this time. ..Thornton.. 04/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z Critical fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern and central High Plains on Days 3-4/Saturday-Sunday, where fuels have become increasingly receptive to large-fire spread. A fire-weather outbreak is possible over parts of the southern High Plains on Day 3/Saturday, with the greatest potential over portions of the Texas Panhandle. ...Days 3-4/Saturday-Sunday - Southern/Central High Plains... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, a 100-kt 500-mb jet will overspread the southern High Plains on Day 3/Saturday. At the same time, a related lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline advances eastward across the southern Plains -- which will be overtaken by a Pacific front. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind the front (extending into the strong flow aloft), coupled with a tightening surface pressure gradient, will yield 25-35 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 50 mph) and 10-15 percent RH. Some of the strongest surface winds and lowest RH is expected over parts of the TX Panhandle, and given increasingly dry/loaded fuels here, a fire-weather outbreak is possible. The primary limiting factor will be relatively cool surface temperatures behind the Pacific front, though the strong winds and low RH could compensate for this. Thereafter, a belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow will persist across the southern High Plains, and given continued downslope drying amid a tight surface pressure gradient, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Elevated to critical conditions could redevelop across the southern High Plains on Days 5-6/Monday-Tuesday -- ahead of another low-latitude trough over the West. 40-percent Critical probabilities are in place for this, though confidence in the development of any more than locally critical conditions is too low for higher probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 04/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z Critical fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern and central High Plains on Days 3-4/Saturday-Sunday, where fuels have become increasingly receptive to large-fire spread. A fire-weather outbreak is possible over parts of the southern High Plains on Day 3/Saturday, with the greatest potential over portions of the Texas Panhandle. ...Days 3-4/Saturday-Sunday - Southern/Central High Plains... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, a 100-kt 500-mb jet will overspread the southern High Plains on Day 3/Saturday. At the same time, a related lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline advances eastward across the southern Plains -- which will be overtaken by a Pacific front. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind the front (extending into the strong flow aloft), coupled with a tightening surface pressure gradient, will yield 25-35 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 50 mph) and 10-15 percent RH. Some of the strongest surface winds and lowest RH is expected over parts of the TX Panhandle, and given increasingly dry/loaded fuels here, a fire-weather outbreak is possible. The primary limiting factor will be relatively cool surface temperatures behind the Pacific front, though the strong winds and low RH could compensate for this. Thereafter, a belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow will persist across the southern High Plains, and given continued downslope drying amid a tight surface pressure gradient, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Elevated to critical conditions could redevelop across the southern High Plains on Days 5-6/Monday-Tuesday -- ahead of another low-latitude trough over the West. 40-percent Critical probabilities are in place for this, though confidence in the development of any more than locally critical conditions is too low for higher probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 04/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z Critical fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern and central High Plains on Days 3-4/Saturday-Sunday, where fuels have become increasingly receptive to large-fire spread. A fire-weather outbreak is possible over parts of the southern High Plains on Day 3/Saturday, with the greatest potential over portions of the Texas Panhandle. ...Days 3-4/Saturday-Sunday - Southern/Central High Plains... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, a 100-kt 500-mb jet will overspread the southern High Plains on Day 3/Saturday. At the same time, a related lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline advances eastward across the southern Plains -- which will be overtaken by a Pacific front. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind the front (extending into the strong flow aloft), coupled with a tightening surface pressure gradient, will yield 25-35 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 50 mph) and 10-15 percent RH. Some of the strongest surface winds and lowest RH is expected over parts of the TX Panhandle, and given increasingly dry/loaded fuels here, a fire-weather outbreak is possible. The primary limiting factor will be relatively cool surface temperatures behind the Pacific front, though the strong winds and low RH could compensate for this. Thereafter, a belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow will persist across the southern High Plains, and given continued downslope drying amid a tight surface pressure gradient, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Elevated to critical conditions could redevelop across the southern High Plains on Days 5-6/Monday-Tuesday -- ahead of another low-latitude trough over the West. 40-percent Critical probabilities are in place for this, though confidence in the development of any more than locally critical conditions is too low for higher probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 04/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Though no Extremely Critical areas were added with this outlook, hi-res guidance from the HREF continues to show around 10-30% probability of Extremely Critical conditions across the northern Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma Panhandle into far southeastern Colorado. Deterministic models continue to show significant spread in wind speeds and minimum relative humidity but it seems likely that localized Extremely Critical conditions will be possible, mainly across the northern Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma Panhandle. Should confidence increase in more widespread conditions, an Extremely Critical may be needed with the upcoming transition to D1. ..Thornton.. 04/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... The second of a two-day fire weather event is anticipated on Saturday across southern NM/far west TX to southeast CO and southwest KS. Robust lee cyclogenesis is anticipated across the central High Plains by 18 UTC Saturday as a progressive upper-level wave (currently moving onto the CA coast) overspreads the region. The surface low is forecast to shift east into the Plains through the afternoon with a trailing surface trough/Pacific front pushing east across the southern High Plains by late morning. As this occurs, west/northwesterly post-frontal winds will advect a dry air mass off the central/southern Rockies into the High Plains. Downslope warming/drying of this air mass will promote widespread RH reductions into the 10-20% range across NM, western TX, and portions of OK/CO/KS. Latest high-res ensemble guidance shows reasonably high confidence in sub-15% RH within the critical risk area, and the typically drier/windier solutions hint that single-digit RH minimums are possible. Winds are expected to increase to 20-25 mph (gusting to 40-50 mph) by early afternoon amid a strengthening surface pressure gradient and deepening boundary-layer mixing. Sustained winds between 30-35 mph winds possible under the mid-level jet maximum, which should be located broadly across the northern TX and OK Panhandles. This region will see the highest potential for extremely critical fire weather conditions. Consideration was given to introducing an Extremely Critical risk area, but somewhat low ensemble consensus for sustained 30+ mph winds (only 10-30% probability) precluded higher risk headlines. These low probabilities may be associated with spread regarding the placement and magnitude of the surface low (up to a 4 mb difference between some solutions). These details should become better resolved heading into the Day-1 time frame. Regardless, fuels across the region should be very receptive after warm, dry, and windy conditions on Friday, which should support the high-end Critical fire weather risk on Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Though no Extremely Critical areas were added with this outlook, hi-res guidance from the HREF continues to show around 10-30% probability of Extremely Critical conditions across the northern Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma Panhandle into far southeastern Colorado. Deterministic models continue to show significant spread in wind speeds and minimum relative humidity but it seems likely that localized Extremely Critical conditions will be possible, mainly across the northern Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma Panhandle. Should confidence increase in more widespread conditions, an Extremely Critical may be needed with the upcoming transition to D1. ..Thornton.. 04/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... The second of a two-day fire weather event is anticipated on Saturday across southern NM/far west TX to southeast CO and southwest KS. Robust lee cyclogenesis is anticipated across the central High Plains by 18 UTC Saturday as a progressive upper-level wave (currently moving onto the CA coast) overspreads the region. The surface low is forecast to shift east into the Plains through the afternoon with a trailing surface trough/Pacific front pushing east across the southern High Plains by late morning. As this occurs, west/northwesterly post-frontal winds will advect a dry air mass off the central/southern Rockies into the High Plains. Downslope warming/drying of this air mass will promote widespread RH reductions into the 10-20% range across NM, western TX, and portions of OK/CO/KS. Latest high-res ensemble guidance shows reasonably high confidence in sub-15% RH within the critical risk area, and the typically drier/windier solutions hint that single-digit RH minimums are possible. Winds are expected to increase to 20-25 mph (gusting to 40-50 mph) by early afternoon amid a strengthening surface pressure gradient and deepening boundary-layer mixing. Sustained winds between 30-35 mph winds possible under the mid-level jet maximum, which should be located broadly across the northern TX and OK Panhandles. This region will see the highest potential for extremely critical fire weather conditions. Consideration was given to introducing an Extremely Critical risk area, but somewhat low ensemble consensus for sustained 30+ mph winds (only 10-30% probability) precluded higher risk headlines. These low probabilities may be associated with spread regarding the placement and magnitude of the surface low (up to a 4 mb difference between some solutions). These details should become better resolved heading into the Day-1 time frame. Regardless, fuels across the region should be very receptive after warm, dry, and windy conditions on Friday, which should support the high-end Critical fire weather risk on Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Though no Extremely Critical areas were added with this outlook, hi-res guidance from the HREF continues to show around 10-30% probability of Extremely Critical conditions across the northern Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma Panhandle into far southeastern Colorado. Deterministic models continue to show significant spread in wind speeds and minimum relative humidity but it seems likely that localized Extremely Critical conditions will be possible, mainly across the northern Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma Panhandle. Should confidence increase in more widespread conditions, an Extremely Critical may be needed with the upcoming transition to D1. ..Thornton.. 04/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... The second of a two-day fire weather event is anticipated on Saturday across southern NM/far west TX to southeast CO and southwest KS. Robust lee cyclogenesis is anticipated across the central High Plains by 18 UTC Saturday as a progressive upper-level wave (currently moving onto the CA coast) overspreads the region. The surface low is forecast to shift east into the Plains through the afternoon with a trailing surface trough/Pacific front pushing east across the southern High Plains by late morning. As this occurs, west/northwesterly post-frontal winds will advect a dry air mass off the central/southern Rockies into the High Plains. Downslope warming/drying of this air mass will promote widespread RH reductions into the 10-20% range across NM, western TX, and portions of OK/CO/KS. Latest high-res ensemble guidance shows reasonably high confidence in sub-15% RH within the critical risk area, and the typically drier/windier solutions hint that single-digit RH minimums are possible. Winds are expected to increase to 20-25 mph (gusting to 40-50 mph) by early afternoon amid a strengthening surface pressure gradient and deepening boundary-layer mixing. Sustained winds between 30-35 mph winds possible under the mid-level jet maximum, which should be located broadly across the northern TX and OK Panhandles. This region will see the highest potential for extremely critical fire weather conditions. Consideration was given to introducing an Extremely Critical risk area, but somewhat low ensemble consensus for sustained 30+ mph winds (only 10-30% probability) precluded higher risk headlines. These low probabilities may be associated with spread regarding the placement and magnitude of the surface low (up to a 4 mb difference between some solutions). These details should become better resolved heading into the Day-1 time frame. Regardless, fuels across the region should be very receptive after warm, dry, and windy conditions on Friday, which should support the high-end Critical fire weather risk on Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Though no Extremely Critical areas were added with this outlook, hi-res guidance from the HREF continues to show around 10-30% probability of Extremely Critical conditions across the northern Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma Panhandle into far southeastern Colorado. Deterministic models continue to show significant spread in wind speeds and minimum relative humidity but it seems likely that localized Extremely Critical conditions will be possible, mainly across the northern Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma Panhandle. Should confidence increase in more widespread conditions, an Extremely Critical may be needed with the upcoming transition to D1. ..Thornton.. 04/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... The second of a two-day fire weather event is anticipated on Saturday across southern NM/far west TX to southeast CO and southwest KS. Robust lee cyclogenesis is anticipated across the central High Plains by 18 UTC Saturday as a progressive upper-level wave (currently moving onto the CA coast) overspreads the region. The surface low is forecast to shift east into the Plains through the afternoon with a trailing surface trough/Pacific front pushing east across the southern High Plains by late morning. As this occurs, west/northwesterly post-frontal winds will advect a dry air mass off the central/southern Rockies into the High Plains. Downslope warming/drying of this air mass will promote widespread RH reductions into the 10-20% range across NM, western TX, and portions of OK/CO/KS. Latest high-res ensemble guidance shows reasonably high confidence in sub-15% RH within the critical risk area, and the typically drier/windier solutions hint that single-digit RH minimums are possible. Winds are expected to increase to 20-25 mph (gusting to 40-50 mph) by early afternoon amid a strengthening surface pressure gradient and deepening boundary-layer mixing. Sustained winds between 30-35 mph winds possible under the mid-level jet maximum, which should be located broadly across the northern TX and OK Panhandles. This region will see the highest potential for extremely critical fire weather conditions. Consideration was given to introducing an Extremely Critical risk area, but somewhat low ensemble consensus for sustained 30+ mph winds (only 10-30% probability) precluded higher risk headlines. These low probabilities may be associated with spread regarding the placement and magnitude of the surface low (up to a 4 mb difference between some solutions). These details should become better resolved heading into the Day-1 time frame. Regardless, fuels across the region should be very receptive after warm, dry, and windy conditions on Friday, which should support the high-end Critical fire weather risk on Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Though no Extremely Critical areas were added with this outlook, hi-res guidance from the HREF continues to show around 10-30% probability of Extremely Critical conditions across the northern Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma Panhandle into far southeastern Colorado. Deterministic models continue to show significant spread in wind speeds and minimum relative humidity but it seems likely that localized Extremely Critical conditions will be possible, mainly across the northern Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma Panhandle. Should confidence increase in more widespread conditions, an Extremely Critical may be needed with the upcoming transition to D1. ..Thornton.. 04/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... The second of a two-day fire weather event is anticipated on Saturday across southern NM/far west TX to southeast CO and southwest KS. Robust lee cyclogenesis is anticipated across the central High Plains by 18 UTC Saturday as a progressive upper-level wave (currently moving onto the CA coast) overspreads the region. The surface low is forecast to shift east into the Plains through the afternoon with a trailing surface trough/Pacific front pushing east across the southern High Plains by late morning. As this occurs, west/northwesterly post-frontal winds will advect a dry air mass off the central/southern Rockies into the High Plains. Downslope warming/drying of this air mass will promote widespread RH reductions into the 10-20% range across NM, western TX, and portions of OK/CO/KS. Latest high-res ensemble guidance shows reasonably high confidence in sub-15% RH within the critical risk area, and the typically drier/windier solutions hint that single-digit RH minimums are possible. Winds are expected to increase to 20-25 mph (gusting to 40-50 mph) by early afternoon amid a strengthening surface pressure gradient and deepening boundary-layer mixing. Sustained winds between 30-35 mph winds possible under the mid-level jet maximum, which should be located broadly across the northern TX and OK Panhandles. This region will see the highest potential for extremely critical fire weather conditions. Consideration was given to introducing an Extremely Critical risk area, but somewhat low ensemble consensus for sustained 30+ mph winds (only 10-30% probability) precluded higher risk headlines. These low probabilities may be associated with spread regarding the placement and magnitude of the surface low (up to a 4 mb difference between some solutions). These details should become better resolved heading into the Day-1 time frame. Regardless, fuels across the region should be very receptive after warm, dry, and windy conditions on Friday, which should support the high-end Critical fire weather risk on Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Though no Extremely Critical areas were added with this outlook, hi-res guidance from the HREF continues to show around 10-30% probability of Extremely Critical conditions across the northern Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma Panhandle into far southeastern Colorado. Deterministic models continue to show significant spread in wind speeds and minimum relative humidity but it seems likely that localized Extremely Critical conditions will be possible, mainly across the northern Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma Panhandle. Should confidence increase in more widespread conditions, an Extremely Critical may be needed with the upcoming transition to D1. ..Thornton.. 04/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... The second of a two-day fire weather event is anticipated on Saturday across southern NM/far west TX to southeast CO and southwest KS. Robust lee cyclogenesis is anticipated across the central High Plains by 18 UTC Saturday as a progressive upper-level wave (currently moving onto the CA coast) overspreads the region. The surface low is forecast to shift east into the Plains through the afternoon with a trailing surface trough/Pacific front pushing east across the southern High Plains by late morning. As this occurs, west/northwesterly post-frontal winds will advect a dry air mass off the central/southern Rockies into the High Plains. Downslope warming/drying of this air mass will promote widespread RH reductions into the 10-20% range across NM, western TX, and portions of OK/CO/KS. Latest high-res ensemble guidance shows reasonably high confidence in sub-15% RH within the critical risk area, and the typically drier/windier solutions hint that single-digit RH minimums are possible. Winds are expected to increase to 20-25 mph (gusting to 40-50 mph) by early afternoon amid a strengthening surface pressure gradient and deepening boundary-layer mixing. Sustained winds between 30-35 mph winds possible under the mid-level jet maximum, which should be located broadly across the northern TX and OK Panhandles. This region will see the highest potential for extremely critical fire weather conditions. Consideration was given to introducing an Extremely Critical risk area, but somewhat low ensemble consensus for sustained 30+ mph winds (only 10-30% probability) precluded higher risk headlines. These low probabilities may be associated with spread regarding the placement and magnitude of the surface low (up to a 4 mb difference between some solutions). These details should become better resolved heading into the Day-1 time frame. Regardless, fuels across the region should be very receptive after warm, dry, and windy conditions on Friday, which should support the high-end Critical fire weather risk on Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Though no Extremely Critical areas were added with this outlook, hi-res guidance from the HREF continues to show around 10-30% probability of Extremely Critical conditions across the northern Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma Panhandle into far southeastern Colorado. Deterministic models continue to show significant spread in wind speeds and minimum relative humidity but it seems likely that localized Extremely Critical conditions will be possible, mainly across the northern Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma Panhandle. Should confidence increase in more widespread conditions, an Extremely Critical may be needed with the upcoming transition to D1. ..Thornton.. 04/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... The second of a two-day fire weather event is anticipated on Saturday across southern NM/far west TX to southeast CO and southwest KS. Robust lee cyclogenesis is anticipated across the central High Plains by 18 UTC Saturday as a progressive upper-level wave (currently moving onto the CA coast) overspreads the region. The surface low is forecast to shift east into the Plains through the afternoon with a trailing surface trough/Pacific front pushing east across the southern High Plains by late morning. As this occurs, west/northwesterly post-frontal winds will advect a dry air mass off the central/southern Rockies into the High Plains. Downslope warming/drying of this air mass will promote widespread RH reductions into the 10-20% range across NM, western TX, and portions of OK/CO/KS. Latest high-res ensemble guidance shows reasonably high confidence in sub-15% RH within the critical risk area, and the typically drier/windier solutions hint that single-digit RH minimums are possible. Winds are expected to increase to 20-25 mph (gusting to 40-50 mph) by early afternoon amid a strengthening surface pressure gradient and deepening boundary-layer mixing. Sustained winds between 30-35 mph winds possible under the mid-level jet maximum, which should be located broadly across the northern TX and OK Panhandles. This region will see the highest potential for extremely critical fire weather conditions. Consideration was given to introducing an Extremely Critical risk area, but somewhat low ensemble consensus for sustained 30+ mph winds (only 10-30% probability) precluded higher risk headlines. These low probabilities may be associated with spread regarding the placement and magnitude of the surface low (up to a 4 mb difference between some solutions). These details should become better resolved heading into the Day-1 time frame. Regardless, fuels across the region should be very receptive after warm, dry, and windy conditions on Friday, which should support the high-end Critical fire weather risk on Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Discussion... No changes appear necessary to the ongoing outlook at this time. ..Goss.. 04/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024/ ...Northern Rockies... Associated with the exit region of the polar jet related to the Western U.S. upper trough, forcing for ascent and modest moisture/buoyancy will lead to at least widely scattered thunderstorms by mid/late afternoon. These storms should generally focus across eastern Idaho and far western Montana this afternoon, and then additional parts of western/southern Montana and Wyoming into this evening. Steep lapse rates and sufficient buoyancy could allow for some stronger storms capable of gusty winds/hail, but organized/sustained severe thunderstorms are not currently expected. ...Coastal Southern California... Isolated low-topped thunderstorms will remain a possibility within the post-frontal environment beneath the mid/upper-level trough, where mid-level temperatures (500 mb) are generally between -25C to -30C. While a couple of east/southeastward-moving stronger storms could materialize through the afternoon near far southern California coastal areas, severe thunderstorms are unlikely given the limited boundary layer moisture and buoyancy (generally a couple hundred J/kg MUCAPE at most). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Discussion... No changes appear necessary to the ongoing outlook at this time. ..Goss.. 04/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024/ ...Northern Rockies... Associated with the exit region of the polar jet related to the Western U.S. upper trough, forcing for ascent and modest moisture/buoyancy will lead to at least widely scattered thunderstorms by mid/late afternoon. These storms should generally focus across eastern Idaho and far western Montana this afternoon, and then additional parts of western/southern Montana and Wyoming into this evening. Steep lapse rates and sufficient buoyancy could allow for some stronger storms capable of gusty winds/hail, but organized/sustained severe thunderstorms are not currently expected. ...Coastal Southern California... Isolated low-topped thunderstorms will remain a possibility within the post-frontal environment beneath the mid/upper-level trough, where mid-level temperatures (500 mb) are generally between -25C to -30C. While a couple of east/southeastward-moving stronger storms could materialize through the afternoon near far southern California coastal areas, severe thunderstorms are unlikely given the limited boundary layer moisture and buoyancy (generally a couple hundred J/kg MUCAPE at most). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Discussion... No changes appear necessary to the ongoing outlook at this time. ..Goss.. 04/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024/ ...Northern Rockies... Associated with the exit region of the polar jet related to the Western U.S. upper trough, forcing for ascent and modest moisture/buoyancy will lead to at least widely scattered thunderstorms by mid/late afternoon. These storms should generally focus across eastern Idaho and far western Montana this afternoon, and then additional parts of western/southern Montana and Wyoming into this evening. Steep lapse rates and sufficient buoyancy could allow for some stronger storms capable of gusty winds/hail, but organized/sustained severe thunderstorms are not currently expected. ...Coastal Southern California... Isolated low-topped thunderstorms will remain a possibility within the post-frontal environment beneath the mid/upper-level trough, where mid-level temperatures (500 mb) are generally between -25C to -30C. While a couple of east/southeastward-moving stronger storms could materialize through the afternoon near far southern California coastal areas, severe thunderstorms are unlikely given the limited boundary layer moisture and buoyancy (generally a couple hundred J/kg MUCAPE at most). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Discussion... No changes appear necessary to the ongoing outlook at this time. ..Goss.. 04/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024/ ...Northern Rockies... Associated with the exit region of the polar jet related to the Western U.S. upper trough, forcing for ascent and modest moisture/buoyancy will lead to at least widely scattered thunderstorms by mid/late afternoon. These storms should generally focus across eastern Idaho and far western Montana this afternoon, and then additional parts of western/southern Montana and Wyoming into this evening. Steep lapse rates and sufficient buoyancy could allow for some stronger storms capable of gusty winds/hail, but organized/sustained severe thunderstorms are not currently expected. ...Coastal Southern California... Isolated low-topped thunderstorms will remain a possibility within the post-frontal environment beneath the mid/upper-level trough, where mid-level temperatures (500 mb) are generally between -25C to -30C. While a couple of east/southeastward-moving stronger storms could materialize through the afternoon near far southern California coastal areas, severe thunderstorms are unlikely given the limited boundary layer moisture and buoyancy (generally a couple hundred J/kg MUCAPE at most). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Discussion... No changes appear necessary to the ongoing outlook at this time. ..Goss.. 04/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024/ ...Northern Rockies... Associated with the exit region of the polar jet related to the Western U.S. upper trough, forcing for ascent and modest moisture/buoyancy will lead to at least widely scattered thunderstorms by mid/late afternoon. These storms should generally focus across eastern Idaho and far western Montana this afternoon, and then additional parts of western/southern Montana and Wyoming into this evening. Steep lapse rates and sufficient buoyancy could allow for some stronger storms capable of gusty winds/hail, but organized/sustained severe thunderstorms are not currently expected. ...Coastal Southern California... Isolated low-topped thunderstorms will remain a possibility within the post-frontal environment beneath the mid/upper-level trough, where mid-level temperatures (500 mb) are generally between -25C to -30C. While a couple of east/southeastward-moving stronger storms could materialize through the afternoon near far southern California coastal areas, severe thunderstorms are unlikely given the limited boundary layer moisture and buoyancy (generally a couple hundred J/kg MUCAPE at most). Read more