Aggregator

MD 0386 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST AR INTO NORTHERN MS AND SOUTHWEST TN
Mesoscale Discussion 0386 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0444 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Areas affected...Southeast AR into northern MS and southwest TN Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 082144Z - 082345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated large hail will remain possible through early evening. DISCUSSION...Scattered strong storms have developed this afternoon along the northern periphery of returning low-level moisture from southeast AR into northern MS and southwest TN. Low/mid 60s F dewpoints spreading northward into a region where temperatures have already warmed well into the 70s F has resulted in MLCAPE rising to 1000-1500 J/kg. Effective shear of 40-50 kt and elongated hodographs will remain supportive of supercell structures, with large hail as the primary short-term threat. Coverage of the threat will likely remain rather isolated, but one or two cells may be capable of producing hail in the 1.5 - 2 inch diameter range, as recently noted east of Memphis. Watch issuance is unlikely, unless coverage of hail-producing supercells becomes greater than currently anticipated. ..Dean/Hart.. 04/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK... LAT...LON 34599199 35489005 35928899 36078804 35898759 35618753 35198785 34838840 34189033 33729192 33879235 34599199 Read more

MD 0385 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WEST/NORTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0385 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0435 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Areas affected...Portions of West/Northwest Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 082135Z - 082330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Supercells capable of large to very large hail (2-4 inches in diameter) are expected this evening, with convective initiation after 22z. Watch issuance is likely. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite trends show a steady increase in agitated cumulus development within a north-south oriented corridor across portions of West Texas. These trends are coincident with a southerly influx of richer low-level moisture across this region, characterized by surface dew point temperatures in the mid-to upper-50s F, beneath cooler mid-level temperatures with northward extent. Meanwhile, temperatures have risen into the upper 70s F amid strong heating, yielding 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. SPC mesoanalysis shows CIN has mostly eroded across the region in the last hour, indicating convective initiation may be imminent. The plume of richer low-level moisture is expected to continue advancing northward and impinge upon a diffuse cold front positioned across parts of Northwest Texas. The combined effects of surface convergence/heating will allow further destabilization and erosion of the cap after 22z, with scattered thunderstorms expected thereafter. Strong deep-layer shear and elongated/straight hodographs should yield discrete supercells, with large to very large hail (2-4 inches in diameter) the primary hazard initially. Relatively weak low-level shear is expected to limit the initial tornado potential, but as the low-level jet increases into the early evening hours, the tornado potential may increase if storms can remain discrete. ..Karstens/Bentley/Hart.. 04/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 30710081 30800165 32010196 32980225 33880102 33869956 33549869 33219844 32669805 31999836 31549955 31369989 30860030 30710081 Read more

WW 0090 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 90 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW BPT TO 10 SSE LFK TO 35 NW LFK TO 50 N UTS TO 35 N CLL TO 35 E AUS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0387 ..DEAN..04/08/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV...LCH...FWD...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 90 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC013-021-031-043-049-059-061-069-073-079-081-085-115-127- 090040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE CALDWELL DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RAPIDES RED RIVER SABINE VERNON WINN TXC001-005-073-145-161-241-289-293-331-347-351-365-395-401-403- 405-419-457-090040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ANGELINA CHEROKEE FALLS FREESTONE JASPER LEON LIMESTONE MILAM NACOGDOCHES NEWTON PANOLA Read more

WW 90 TORNADO LA TX 081825Z - 090100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 90 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 125 PM CDT Mon Apr 8 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern and western Louisiana Central and east Texas * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 125 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Supercells posing a threat for very large hail and a couple of tornadoes should gradually increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon as they spread east-northeastward. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west northwest of College Station TX to 35 miles north northeast of Alexandria LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0091 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 63 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 WNW PKB TO 30 ENE PKB TO 35 WSW MGW. ..BENTLEY..03/31/24 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...ILN...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 63 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WVC001-017-033-041-073-083-085-095-097-107-310140- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBOUR DODDRIDGE HARRISON LEWIS PLEASANTS RANDOLPH RITCHIE TYLER UPSHUR WOOD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A closed low will propagate eastward across southern Arizona/southern New Mexico and into the central and southern Plains on D2-Tuesday, bringing potential for widespread wetting rainfall and cooler temperatures. The expected precipitation will help to moisten fuels and reduce fire weather concerns across portions of the Central/Southern Plains. Strong post frontal northwesterly flow will overlap dry conditions along the southern Texas/Mexico border on D3 - Wednesday but coverage should remain too limited to warrant probabilities. This region is expected to receive little to no rainfall on D2 Tuesday, with fuels remaining Critical. Dry and breezy conditions will be possible across portions of eastern Colorado into western Kansas, where less rainfall is expected. However, a relatively cool continental air mass should keep relative humidity above critical thresholds. For D4 - D5 Thursday to Friday, high pressure will build across the Great Plains, keeping winds low where fuels remain dry. Late in the period D6 - D7 Saturday to Sunday, another western trough is projected to begin spreading enhanced westerly flow across the southwest into the Rockies, which may bring additional periods of fire weather concerns to the central/southern Plains as well as some drying of fuels across portions of the Desert Southwest. ..Thornton.. 04/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A closed low will propagate eastward across southern Arizona/southern New Mexico and into the central and southern Plains on D2-Tuesday, bringing potential for widespread wetting rainfall and cooler temperatures. The expected precipitation will help to moisten fuels and reduce fire weather concerns across portions of the Central/Southern Plains. Strong post frontal northwesterly flow will overlap dry conditions along the southern Texas/Mexico border on D3 - Wednesday but coverage should remain too limited to warrant probabilities. This region is expected to receive little to no rainfall on D2 Tuesday, with fuels remaining Critical. Dry and breezy conditions will be possible across portions of eastern Colorado into western Kansas, where less rainfall is expected. However, a relatively cool continental air mass should keep relative humidity above critical thresholds. For D4 - D5 Thursday to Friday, high pressure will build across the Great Plains, keeping winds low where fuels remain dry. Late in the period D6 - D7 Saturday to Sunday, another western trough is projected to begin spreading enhanced westerly flow across the southwest into the Rockies, which may bring additional periods of fire weather concerns to the central/southern Plains as well as some drying of fuels across portions of the Desert Southwest. ..Thornton.. 04/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A closed low will propagate eastward across southern Arizona/southern New Mexico and into the central and southern Plains on D2-Tuesday, bringing potential for widespread wetting rainfall and cooler temperatures. The expected precipitation will help to moisten fuels and reduce fire weather concerns across portions of the Central/Southern Plains. Strong post frontal northwesterly flow will overlap dry conditions along the southern Texas/Mexico border on D3 - Wednesday but coverage should remain too limited to warrant probabilities. This region is expected to receive little to no rainfall on D2 Tuesday, with fuels remaining Critical. Dry and breezy conditions will be possible across portions of eastern Colorado into western Kansas, where less rainfall is expected. However, a relatively cool continental air mass should keep relative humidity above critical thresholds. For D4 - D5 Thursday to Friday, high pressure will build across the Great Plains, keeping winds low where fuels remain dry. Late in the period D6 - D7 Saturday to Sunday, another western trough is projected to begin spreading enhanced westerly flow across the southwest into the Rockies, which may bring additional periods of fire weather concerns to the central/southern Plains as well as some drying of fuels across portions of the Desert Southwest. ..Thornton.. 04/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A closed low will propagate eastward across southern Arizona/southern New Mexico and into the central and southern Plains on D2-Tuesday, bringing potential for widespread wetting rainfall and cooler temperatures. The expected precipitation will help to moisten fuels and reduce fire weather concerns across portions of the Central/Southern Plains. Strong post frontal northwesterly flow will overlap dry conditions along the southern Texas/Mexico border on D3 - Wednesday but coverage should remain too limited to warrant probabilities. This region is expected to receive little to no rainfall on D2 Tuesday, with fuels remaining Critical. Dry and breezy conditions will be possible across portions of eastern Colorado into western Kansas, where less rainfall is expected. However, a relatively cool continental air mass should keep relative humidity above critical thresholds. For D4 - D5 Thursday to Friday, high pressure will build across the Great Plains, keeping winds low where fuels remain dry. Late in the period D6 - D7 Saturday to Sunday, another western trough is projected to begin spreading enhanced westerly flow across the southwest into the Rockies, which may bring additional periods of fire weather concerns to the central/southern Plains as well as some drying of fuels across portions of the Desert Southwest. ..Thornton.. 04/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A closed low will propagate eastward across southern Arizona/southern New Mexico and into the central and southern Plains on D2-Tuesday, bringing potential for widespread wetting rainfall and cooler temperatures. The expected precipitation will help to moisten fuels and reduce fire weather concerns across portions of the Central/Southern Plains. Strong post frontal northwesterly flow will overlap dry conditions along the southern Texas/Mexico border on D3 - Wednesday but coverage should remain too limited to warrant probabilities. This region is expected to receive little to no rainfall on D2 Tuesday, with fuels remaining Critical. Dry and breezy conditions will be possible across portions of eastern Colorado into western Kansas, where less rainfall is expected. However, a relatively cool continental air mass should keep relative humidity above critical thresholds. For D4 - D5 Thursday to Friday, high pressure will build across the Great Plains, keeping winds low where fuels remain dry. Late in the period D6 - D7 Saturday to Sunday, another western trough is projected to begin spreading enhanced westerly flow across the southwest into the Rockies, which may bring additional periods of fire weather concerns to the central/southern Plains as well as some drying of fuels across portions of the Desert Southwest. ..Thornton.. 04/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A closed low will propagate eastward across southern Arizona/southern New Mexico and into the central and southern Plains on D2-Tuesday, bringing potential for widespread wetting rainfall and cooler temperatures. The expected precipitation will help to moisten fuels and reduce fire weather concerns across portions of the Central/Southern Plains. Strong post frontal northwesterly flow will overlap dry conditions along the southern Texas/Mexico border on D3 - Wednesday but coverage should remain too limited to warrant probabilities. This region is expected to receive little to no rainfall on D2 Tuesday, with fuels remaining Critical. Dry and breezy conditions will be possible across portions of eastern Colorado into western Kansas, where less rainfall is expected. However, a relatively cool continental air mass should keep relative humidity above critical thresholds. For D4 - D5 Thursday to Friday, high pressure will build across the Great Plains, keeping winds low where fuels remain dry. Late in the period D6 - D7 Saturday to Sunday, another western trough is projected to begin spreading enhanced westerly flow across the southwest into the Rockies, which may bring additional periods of fire weather concerns to the central/southern Plains as well as some drying of fuels across portions of the Desert Southwest. ..Thornton.. 04/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A closed low will propagate eastward across southern Arizona/southern New Mexico and into the central and southern Plains on D2-Tuesday, bringing potential for widespread wetting rainfall and cooler temperatures. The expected precipitation will help to moisten fuels and reduce fire weather concerns across portions of the Central/Southern Plains. Strong post frontal northwesterly flow will overlap dry conditions along the southern Texas/Mexico border on D3 - Wednesday but coverage should remain too limited to warrant probabilities. This region is expected to receive little to no rainfall on D2 Tuesday, with fuels remaining Critical. Dry and breezy conditions will be possible across portions of eastern Colorado into western Kansas, where less rainfall is expected. However, a relatively cool continental air mass should keep relative humidity above critical thresholds. For D4 - D5 Thursday to Friday, high pressure will build across the Great Plains, keeping winds low where fuels remain dry. Late in the period D6 - D7 Saturday to Sunday, another western trough is projected to begin spreading enhanced westerly flow across the southwest into the Rockies, which may bring additional periods of fire weather concerns to the central/southern Plains as well as some drying of fuels across portions of the Desert Southwest. ..Thornton.. 04/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A closed low will propagate eastward across southern Arizona/southern New Mexico and into the central and southern Plains on D2-Tuesday, bringing potential for widespread wetting rainfall and cooler temperatures. The expected precipitation will help to moisten fuels and reduce fire weather concerns across portions of the Central/Southern Plains. Strong post frontal northwesterly flow will overlap dry conditions along the southern Texas/Mexico border on D3 - Wednesday but coverage should remain too limited to warrant probabilities. This region is expected to receive little to no rainfall on D2 Tuesday, with fuels remaining Critical. Dry and breezy conditions will be possible across portions of eastern Colorado into western Kansas, where less rainfall is expected. However, a relatively cool continental air mass should keep relative humidity above critical thresholds. For D4 - D5 Thursday to Friday, high pressure will build across the Great Plains, keeping winds low where fuels remain dry. Late in the period D6 - D7 Saturday to Sunday, another western trough is projected to begin spreading enhanced westerly flow across the southwest into the Rockies, which may bring additional periods of fire weather concerns to the central/southern Plains as well as some drying of fuels across portions of the Desert Southwest. ..Thornton.. 04/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A closed low will propagate eastward across southern Arizona/southern New Mexico and into the central and southern Plains on D2-Tuesday, bringing potential for widespread wetting rainfall and cooler temperatures. The expected precipitation will help to moisten fuels and reduce fire weather concerns across portions of the Central/Southern Plains. Strong post frontal northwesterly flow will overlap dry conditions along the southern Texas/Mexico border on D3 - Wednesday but coverage should remain too limited to warrant probabilities. This region is expected to receive little to no rainfall on D2 Tuesday, with fuels remaining Critical. Dry and breezy conditions will be possible across portions of eastern Colorado into western Kansas, where less rainfall is expected. However, a relatively cool continental air mass should keep relative humidity above critical thresholds. For D4 - D5 Thursday to Friday, high pressure will build across the Great Plains, keeping winds low where fuels remain dry. Late in the period D6 - D7 Saturday to Sunday, another western trough is projected to begin spreading enhanced westerly flow across the southwest into the Rockies, which may bring additional periods of fire weather concerns to the central/southern Plains as well as some drying of fuels across portions of the Desert Southwest. ..Thornton.. 04/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A closed low will propagate eastward across southern Arizona/southern New Mexico and into the central and southern Plains on D2-Tuesday, bringing potential for widespread wetting rainfall and cooler temperatures. The expected precipitation will help to moisten fuels and reduce fire weather concerns across portions of the Central/Southern Plains. Strong post frontal northwesterly flow will overlap dry conditions along the southern Texas/Mexico border on D3 - Wednesday but coverage should remain too limited to warrant probabilities. This region is expected to receive little to no rainfall on D2 Tuesday, with fuels remaining Critical. Dry and breezy conditions will be possible across portions of eastern Colorado into western Kansas, where less rainfall is expected. However, a relatively cool continental air mass should keep relative humidity above critical thresholds. For D4 - D5 Thursday to Friday, high pressure will build across the Great Plains, keeping winds low where fuels remain dry. Late in the period D6 - D7 Saturday to Sunday, another western trough is projected to begin spreading enhanced westerly flow across the southwest into the Rockies, which may bring additional periods of fire weather concerns to the central/southern Plains as well as some drying of fuels across portions of the Desert Southwest. ..Thornton.. 04/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A closed low will propagate eastward across southern Arizona/southern New Mexico and into the central and southern Plains on D2-Tuesday, bringing potential for widespread wetting rainfall and cooler temperatures. The expected precipitation will help to moisten fuels and reduce fire weather concerns across portions of the Central/Southern Plains. Strong post frontal northwesterly flow will overlap dry conditions along the southern Texas/Mexico border on D3 - Wednesday but coverage should remain too limited to warrant probabilities. This region is expected to receive little to no rainfall on D2 Tuesday, with fuels remaining Critical. Dry and breezy conditions will be possible across portions of eastern Colorado into western Kansas, where less rainfall is expected. However, a relatively cool continental air mass should keep relative humidity above critical thresholds. For D4 - D5 Thursday to Friday, high pressure will build across the Great Plains, keeping winds low where fuels remain dry. Late in the period D6 - D7 Saturday to Sunday, another western trough is projected to begin spreading enhanced westerly flow across the southwest into the Rockies, which may bring additional periods of fire weather concerns to the central/southern Plains as well as some drying of fuels across portions of the Desert Southwest. ..Thornton.. 04/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A closed low will propagate eastward across southern Arizona/southern New Mexico and into the central and southern Plains on D2-Tuesday, bringing potential for widespread wetting rainfall and cooler temperatures. The expected precipitation will help to moisten fuels and reduce fire weather concerns across portions of the Central/Southern Plains. Strong post frontal northwesterly flow will overlap dry conditions along the southern Texas/Mexico border on D3 - Wednesday but coverage should remain too limited to warrant probabilities. This region is expected to receive little to no rainfall on D2 Tuesday, with fuels remaining Critical. Dry and breezy conditions will be possible across portions of eastern Colorado into western Kansas, where less rainfall is expected. However, a relatively cool continental air mass should keep relative humidity above critical thresholds. For D4 - D5 Thursday to Friday, high pressure will build across the Great Plains, keeping winds low where fuels remain dry. Late in the period D6 - D7 Saturday to Sunday, another western trough is projected to begin spreading enhanced westerly flow across the southwest into the Rockies, which may bring additional periods of fire weather concerns to the central/southern Plains as well as some drying of fuels across portions of the Desert Southwest. ..Thornton.. 04/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A closed low will propagate eastward across southern Arizona/southern New Mexico and into the central and southern Plains on D2-Tuesday, bringing potential for widespread wetting rainfall and cooler temperatures. The expected precipitation will help to moisten fuels and reduce fire weather concerns across portions of the Central/Southern Plains. Strong post frontal northwesterly flow will overlap dry conditions along the southern Texas/Mexico border on D3 - Wednesday but coverage should remain too limited to warrant probabilities. This region is expected to receive little to no rainfall on D2 Tuesday, with fuels remaining Critical. Dry and breezy conditions will be possible across portions of eastern Colorado into western Kansas, where less rainfall is expected. However, a relatively cool continental air mass should keep relative humidity above critical thresholds. For D4 - D5 Thursday to Friday, high pressure will build across the Great Plains, keeping winds low where fuels remain dry. Late in the period D6 - D7 Saturday to Sunday, another western trough is projected to begin spreading enhanced westerly flow across the southwest into the Rockies, which may bring additional periods of fire weather concerns to the central/southern Plains as well as some drying of fuels across portions of the Desert Southwest. ..Thornton.. 04/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A closed low will propagate eastward across southern Arizona/southern New Mexico and into the central and southern Plains on D2-Tuesday, bringing potential for widespread wetting rainfall and cooler temperatures. The expected precipitation will help to moisten fuels and reduce fire weather concerns across portions of the Central/Southern Plains. Strong post frontal northwesterly flow will overlap dry conditions along the southern Texas/Mexico border on D3 - Wednesday but coverage should remain too limited to warrant probabilities. This region is expected to receive little to no rainfall on D2 Tuesday, with fuels remaining Critical. Dry and breezy conditions will be possible across portions of eastern Colorado into western Kansas, where less rainfall is expected. However, a relatively cool continental air mass should keep relative humidity above critical thresholds. For D4 - D5 Thursday to Friday, high pressure will build across the Great Plains, keeping winds low where fuels remain dry. Late in the period D6 - D7 Saturday to Sunday, another western trough is projected to begin spreading enhanced westerly flow across the southwest into the Rockies, which may bring additional periods of fire weather concerns to the central/southern Plains as well as some drying of fuels across portions of the Desert Southwest. ..Thornton.. 04/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0384 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 90... FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS INTO ADJACENT WESTERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0384 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Areas affected...eastern portions of central Texas into adjacent western Louisiana Concerning...Tornado Watch 90... Valid 081949Z - 082145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 90 continues. SUMMARY...The risk for severe hail, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, may continue to increase with a couple of evolving supercells, before thunderstorms possibly begin consolidating into an organizing cluster near and north of the College Station and Huntsville into Lufkin vicinities toward 5-6 PM CDT. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have increased in coverage and intensity within a narrow corridor, which likely coincides with the northern/leading edge of stronger mid-level inhibition, beneath building ridging within the subtropical branch of westerlies. Models suggest that one on two speed maxima within this regime will contribute to strengthening upper divergence along this corridor during the next few hours, supporting potential for considerable further upscale convective growth. A couple of supercells which have recently evolved to the southeast of the College Station and Huntsville vicinities may continue to intensify in the near term, aided by increasing inflow of moist boundary-layer air characterized moderately large CAPE, in the presence of strengthening shear. Gradually, though, it appears that forcing associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection may tend to become focused to the north of College Station and Huntsville into Lufkin vicinity, where strongest storms may evolve into an increasingly organized cluster by 22-23Z. ..Kerr.. 04/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 30879632 31769595 32149397 31559349 30849365 30529494 30449572 30369612 30879632 Read more