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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND BIG COUNTRY VICINITY EASTWARD TO NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight across a large portion of the southern Plains and into the lower Mississippi valley. Very large hail will likely be the main threat, though a few tornadoes and severe gusts are also possible. ...Discussion... With convection evolving largely as expected per prior outlooks, no appreciable changes to outlook areas appear necessary at this time. ..Goss.. 04/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... Primary feature of interest related to severe potential today is a mid/upper-level trough digging over the Southwest. This feature will slowly move eastward across northern Mexico and AZ/NM through the period, while eventually evolving into a closed low. A broad zone of enhanced southwesterly flow is present downstream across northern Mexico into the southern Plains and lower/mid MS Valley. Rich low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s to low 70s, will continue to stream northward across much of TX through the day in tandem with a modest southerly low-level jet. A weak surface low analyzed over central OK this morning should develop northeastward this afternoon into MO, with a trailing cold front forecast to stall over parts of northwest TX into far southern OK. ...Coastal/East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... A broad warm sector is already in place this morning along and south of an effective warm front. 12Z soundings from DRT/CRP show steep mid-level lapse rates, but warm low-level temperatures and related MLCIN. This, along with nebulous large-scale ascent, should act to inhibit convection for at least a couple more hours across east TX. But, continued filtered daytime heating and low-level moistening associated with the modest southerly low-level jet should encourage robust convective initiation along the northern extent of the returning moisture by early this afternoon (around 18-20Z/1pm-3pm CDT). With moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear, and elongated/nearly straight hodographs at mid/upper levels, initial supercell development will likely pose a threat for large to very large (2+ inch) hail. The tornado threat may initially be limited by modest low-level winds/shear, but the chance for a few tornadoes will likely increase through late afternoon and continue through tonight as a southerly low-level jet gradually strengthens. Additional supercells and clusters will likely spread eastward this evening and overnight along/near the warm front. While some of this activity may be slightly elevated, a continued threat for large to very large hail and tornadoes should continue overnight with embedded supercells. Severe/damaging winds may also occur with any cluster that can form. Given increased confidence in multiple rounds of supercells occurring, the Enhanced Risk for large/very large hail has been expanded eastward to include more of north-central/northeast TX and northwestern LA. ...Northwest into North-Central/Northeast Texas and Far Southern Oklahoma... Compared to locations farther east across TX, the northward return of rich low-level moisture will be delayed until later this afternoon and early evening. Still, strong daytime heating will eventually erode the cap in the vicinity of a weak front and dryline intersection across northwest TX. Ample deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will aid in multiple robust supercells capable of producing very large to possible giant hail (2-4 inches) initially. These supercells should eventually encounter greater low-level moisture into north-central TX, with a continued threat for very large hail and a few tornadoes. The potential for a saturated temperature profile and neutral low-level lapse rates in various forecast soundings overnight along/near the warm front lowers confidence in a greater tornado threat. But, low-level shear will increase through the night, especially towards the ArkLaTex where an enhanced low-level jet should be focused. This activity may eventually merge with the low-level warm advection convection across the ArkLaTex late tonight, with messy modes possibly complicating severe hail potential. ...West/Central Texas Late Tonight/Early Tuesday Morning... Increasing forcing for ascent via stronger mid-level height falls will overspread much of west/central Texas tonight. Continued low-level moistening beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will foster moderate to strong MUCAPE. Elongated hodographs with 60-kt effective shear will promote supercells and mainly a risk for large to very large hail across parts of the TX Hill Country. Southerly low-level winds will also increase overnight and act to enhance initially limited hodographs. If a cluster organizes overnight (06-12z), a risk for severe wind gusts and perhaps a couple tornadoes could also develop. The dryline is expected to retreat westward across parts of west Texas overnight with strong instability building back to near Midland early Tuesday morning. As strong upper forcing overspreads this region, at least isolated to scattered storms will probably develop on the western periphery of a strongly unstable/sheared environment. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND BIG COUNTRY VICINITY EASTWARD TO NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight across a large portion of the southern Plains and into the lower Mississippi valley. Very large hail will likely be the main threat, though a few tornadoes and severe gusts are also possible. ...Discussion... With convection evolving largely as expected per prior outlooks, no appreciable changes to outlook areas appear necessary at this time. ..Goss.. 04/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... Primary feature of interest related to severe potential today is a mid/upper-level trough digging over the Southwest. This feature will slowly move eastward across northern Mexico and AZ/NM through the period, while eventually evolving into a closed low. A broad zone of enhanced southwesterly flow is present downstream across northern Mexico into the southern Plains and lower/mid MS Valley. Rich low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s to low 70s, will continue to stream northward across much of TX through the day in tandem with a modest southerly low-level jet. A weak surface low analyzed over central OK this morning should develop northeastward this afternoon into MO, with a trailing cold front forecast to stall over parts of northwest TX into far southern OK. ...Coastal/East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... A broad warm sector is already in place this morning along and south of an effective warm front. 12Z soundings from DRT/CRP show steep mid-level lapse rates, but warm low-level temperatures and related MLCIN. This, along with nebulous large-scale ascent, should act to inhibit convection for at least a couple more hours across east TX. But, continued filtered daytime heating and low-level moistening associated with the modest southerly low-level jet should encourage robust convective initiation along the northern extent of the returning moisture by early this afternoon (around 18-20Z/1pm-3pm CDT). With moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear, and elongated/nearly straight hodographs at mid/upper levels, initial supercell development will likely pose a threat for large to very large (2+ inch) hail. The tornado threat may initially be limited by modest low-level winds/shear, but the chance for a few tornadoes will likely increase through late afternoon and continue through tonight as a southerly low-level jet gradually strengthens. Additional supercells and clusters will likely spread eastward this evening and overnight along/near the warm front. While some of this activity may be slightly elevated, a continued threat for large to very large hail and tornadoes should continue overnight with embedded supercells. Severe/damaging winds may also occur with any cluster that can form. Given increased confidence in multiple rounds of supercells occurring, the Enhanced Risk for large/very large hail has been expanded eastward to include more of north-central/northeast TX and northwestern LA. ...Northwest into North-Central/Northeast Texas and Far Southern Oklahoma... Compared to locations farther east across TX, the northward return of rich low-level moisture will be delayed until later this afternoon and early evening. Still, strong daytime heating will eventually erode the cap in the vicinity of a weak front and dryline intersection across northwest TX. Ample deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will aid in multiple robust supercells capable of producing very large to possible giant hail (2-4 inches) initially. These supercells should eventually encounter greater low-level moisture into north-central TX, with a continued threat for very large hail and a few tornadoes. The potential for a saturated temperature profile and neutral low-level lapse rates in various forecast soundings overnight along/near the warm front lowers confidence in a greater tornado threat. But, low-level shear will increase through the night, especially towards the ArkLaTex where an enhanced low-level jet should be focused. This activity may eventually merge with the low-level warm advection convection across the ArkLaTex late tonight, with messy modes possibly complicating severe hail potential. ...West/Central Texas Late Tonight/Early Tuesday Morning... Increasing forcing for ascent via stronger mid-level height falls will overspread much of west/central Texas tonight. Continued low-level moistening beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will foster moderate to strong MUCAPE. Elongated hodographs with 60-kt effective shear will promote supercells and mainly a risk for large to very large hail across parts of the TX Hill Country. Southerly low-level winds will also increase overnight and act to enhance initially limited hodographs. If a cluster organizes overnight (06-12z), a risk for severe wind gusts and perhaps a couple tornadoes could also develop. The dryline is expected to retreat westward across parts of west Texas overnight with strong instability building back to near Midland early Tuesday morning. As strong upper forcing overspreads this region, at least isolated to scattered storms will probably develop on the western periphery of a strongly unstable/sheared environment. Read more

WW 0090 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 90 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..04/08/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV...LCH...FWD...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 90 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC013-021-031-043-049-059-061-069-073-079-081-085-115-127- 082040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE CALDWELL DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RAPIDES RED RIVER SABINE VERNON WINN TXC001-005-041-051-073-145-161-185-225-241-289-293-313-331-339- 347-351-365-373-395-401-403-405-407-419-455-457-471-477- 082040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ANGELINA BRAZOS BURLESON CHEROKEE FALLS FREESTONE GRIMES HOUSTON JASPER LEON LIMESTONE MADISON MILAM MONTGOMERY NACOGDOCHES NEWTON PANOLA Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Apr 8 18:27:03 UTC 2024.

WW 0090 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 63 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE CMH TO 10 SW ZZV TO 25 E ZZV TO 15 SW HLG TO 20 SE HLG AND 20 NNE UNI TO 15 S ZZV TO 35 E ZZV TO 20 WNW MGW. ..BENTLEY..03/30/24 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...ILN...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 63 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC111-115-121-167-310040- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MONROE MORGAN NOBLE WASHINGTON PAC059-310040- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GREENE WVC017-033-049-051-061-073-085-095-103-107-310040- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DODDRIDGE HARRISON MARION MARSHALL MONONGALIA PLEASANTS Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Apr 8 18:01:01 UTC 2024.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA... CORRECTED THUNDER LINE IN WEST TEXAS ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from Tuesday through Wednesday morning across most of Texas towards the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Several tornadoes, a couple of which should be strong, significant large hail, and damaging winds are likely. ...Synopsis... An upper low is forecast to reside over northwestern Mexico and adjacent portions of Arizona/New Mexico at the start of the period, flanked by ridging over both the western and eastern states. The low is forecast to advance steadily eastward, moving across West Texas through the second half of the period. Several lead disturbances within southwesterly/cyclonic flow ahead of this system will spread across the south-central U.S. through the period. At the surface, an outflow-reinforced warm front should reside from central Texas east-northeastward to the Louisiana/Arkansas border vicinity at the start of the period, while a rather ill-defined trough/front shifts eastward across western Texas through the day, and then becomes a bit better defined while moving across central and eventually eastern Texas through the overnight hours. ...Texas eastward to the lower Mississippi Valley... A warm-advection regime will persist across Texas through the period, shifting gradually eastward with time, ahead of the advancing upper system -- supporting broad ascent across the region. With northward advection of rich low-level Gulf moisture, beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates, the aforementioned ascent will combine with abundant CAPE to support multiple rounds/widespread deep convection across the region. Given the widespread, strong-to-severe convection which likely to be ongoing from west-central Texas eastward to northern Louisiana at the start of the period, highlighting areas of greater severe potential through the day and into the evening/overnight remains quite difficult/uncertain at this time. One possible corridor of enhanced severe potential is evident across portions of southeast TX and into west LA, near roughly west-to-east outflow-reinforced surface boundary associated with ongoing, locally severe storms. Near and south of this boundary, favorably strong/veering deep-layer flow with height -- residing over the broader region -- will combine with a zone of potential heating/afternoon destabilization to support one area of concentrated severe risk. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible, along with a few tornadoes -- and some risk for a strong tornado or two -- where a few supercells are expected, especially on the southern fringe of what should be more clustered convection. Farther west, isolated convective redevelopment is expected during the afternoon and evening along the trailing outflow boundary intersection with the dryline/cold front across the central TX vicinity, and southward toward the Rio Grande. Weaker low-level shear is expected across this area, but the favorably strong flow aloft combined with mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg should yield a threat for significant severe hail. Storms will spread eastward with time, with a broad area of all-hazards severe risk spreading across the eastern half of Texas and into Louisiana through the evening and overnight. Still farther west, across portions of western and northwestern TX, early-day large hail potential should subside for a time, before additional storms redevelop later into the afternoon near the mid-level low. While surface winds should largely be northerly by this time, adequate buoyancy within the approaching mid-level cold pocket will yield a renewed threat for large hail which may continue into the evening hours. ..Goss.. 04/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA... CORRECTED THUNDER LINE IN WEST TEXAS ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from Tuesday through Wednesday morning across most of Texas towards the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Several tornadoes, a couple of which should be strong, significant large hail, and damaging winds are likely. ...Synopsis... An upper low is forecast to reside over northwestern Mexico and adjacent portions of Arizona/New Mexico at the start of the period, flanked by ridging over both the western and eastern states. The low is forecast to advance steadily eastward, moving across West Texas through the second half of the period. Several lead disturbances within southwesterly/cyclonic flow ahead of this system will spread across the south-central U.S. through the period. At the surface, an outflow-reinforced warm front should reside from central Texas east-northeastward to the Louisiana/Arkansas border vicinity at the start of the period, while a rather ill-defined trough/front shifts eastward across western Texas through the day, and then becomes a bit better defined while moving across central and eventually eastern Texas through the overnight hours. ...Texas eastward to the lower Mississippi Valley... A warm-advection regime will persist across Texas through the period, shifting gradually eastward with time, ahead of the advancing upper system -- supporting broad ascent across the region. With northward advection of rich low-level Gulf moisture, beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates, the aforementioned ascent will combine with abundant CAPE to support multiple rounds/widespread deep convection across the region. Given the widespread, strong-to-severe convection which likely to be ongoing from west-central Texas eastward to northern Louisiana at the start of the period, highlighting areas of greater severe potential through the day and into the evening/overnight remains quite difficult/uncertain at this time. One possible corridor of enhanced severe potential is evident across portions of southeast TX and into west LA, near roughly west-to-east outflow-reinforced surface boundary associated with ongoing, locally severe storms. Near and south of this boundary, favorably strong/veering deep-layer flow with height -- residing over the broader region -- will combine with a zone of potential heating/afternoon destabilization to support one area of concentrated severe risk. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible, along with a few tornadoes -- and some risk for a strong tornado or two -- where a few supercells are expected, especially on the southern fringe of what should be more clustered convection. Farther west, isolated convective redevelopment is expected during the afternoon and evening along the trailing outflow boundary intersection with the dryline/cold front across the central TX vicinity, and southward toward the Rio Grande. Weaker low-level shear is expected across this area, but the favorably strong flow aloft combined with mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg should yield a threat for significant severe hail. Storms will spread eastward with time, with a broad area of all-hazards severe risk spreading across the eastern half of Texas and into Louisiana through the evening and overnight. Still farther west, across portions of western and northwestern TX, early-day large hail potential should subside for a time, before additional storms redevelop later into the afternoon near the mid-level low. While surface winds should largely be northerly by this time, adequate buoyancy within the approaching mid-level cold pocket will yield a renewed threat for large hail which may continue into the evening hours. ..Goss.. 04/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA... CORRECTED THUNDER LINE IN WEST TEXAS ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from Tuesday through Wednesday morning across most of Texas towards the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Several tornadoes, a couple of which should be strong, significant large hail, and damaging winds are likely. ...Synopsis... An upper low is forecast to reside over northwestern Mexico and adjacent portions of Arizona/New Mexico at the start of the period, flanked by ridging over both the western and eastern states. The low is forecast to advance steadily eastward, moving across West Texas through the second half of the period. Several lead disturbances within southwesterly/cyclonic flow ahead of this system will spread across the south-central U.S. through the period. At the surface, an outflow-reinforced warm front should reside from central Texas east-northeastward to the Louisiana/Arkansas border vicinity at the start of the period, while a rather ill-defined trough/front shifts eastward across western Texas through the day, and then becomes a bit better defined while moving across central and eventually eastern Texas through the overnight hours. ...Texas eastward to the lower Mississippi Valley... A warm-advection regime will persist across Texas through the period, shifting gradually eastward with time, ahead of the advancing upper system -- supporting broad ascent across the region. With northward advection of rich low-level Gulf moisture, beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates, the aforementioned ascent will combine with abundant CAPE to support multiple rounds/widespread deep convection across the region. Given the widespread, strong-to-severe convection which likely to be ongoing from west-central Texas eastward to northern Louisiana at the start of the period, highlighting areas of greater severe potential through the day and into the evening/overnight remains quite difficult/uncertain at this time. One possible corridor of enhanced severe potential is evident across portions of southeast TX and into west LA, near roughly west-to-east outflow-reinforced surface boundary associated with ongoing, locally severe storms. Near and south of this boundary, favorably strong/veering deep-layer flow with height -- residing over the broader region -- will combine with a zone of potential heating/afternoon destabilization to support one area of concentrated severe risk. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible, along with a few tornadoes -- and some risk for a strong tornado or two -- where a few supercells are expected, especially on the southern fringe of what should be more clustered convection. Farther west, isolated convective redevelopment is expected during the afternoon and evening along the trailing outflow boundary intersection with the dryline/cold front across the central TX vicinity, and southward toward the Rio Grande. Weaker low-level shear is expected across this area, but the favorably strong flow aloft combined with mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg should yield a threat for significant severe hail. Storms will spread eastward with time, with a broad area of all-hazards severe risk spreading across the eastern half of Texas and into Louisiana through the evening and overnight. Still farther west, across portions of western and northwestern TX, early-day large hail potential should subside for a time, before additional storms redevelop later into the afternoon near the mid-level low. While surface winds should largely be northerly by this time, adequate buoyancy within the approaching mid-level cold pocket will yield a renewed threat for large hail which may continue into the evening hours. ..Goss.. 04/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA... CORRECTED THUNDER LINE IN WEST TEXAS ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from Tuesday through Wednesday morning across most of Texas towards the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Several tornadoes, a couple of which should be strong, significant large hail, and damaging winds are likely. ...Synopsis... An upper low is forecast to reside over northwestern Mexico and adjacent portions of Arizona/New Mexico at the start of the period, flanked by ridging over both the western and eastern states. The low is forecast to advance steadily eastward, moving across West Texas through the second half of the period. Several lead disturbances within southwesterly/cyclonic flow ahead of this system will spread across the south-central U.S. through the period. At the surface, an outflow-reinforced warm front should reside from central Texas east-northeastward to the Louisiana/Arkansas border vicinity at the start of the period, while a rather ill-defined trough/front shifts eastward across western Texas through the day, and then becomes a bit better defined while moving across central and eventually eastern Texas through the overnight hours. ...Texas eastward to the lower Mississippi Valley... A warm-advection regime will persist across Texas through the period, shifting gradually eastward with time, ahead of the advancing upper system -- supporting broad ascent across the region. With northward advection of rich low-level Gulf moisture, beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates, the aforementioned ascent will combine with abundant CAPE to support multiple rounds/widespread deep convection across the region. Given the widespread, strong-to-severe convection which likely to be ongoing from west-central Texas eastward to northern Louisiana at the start of the period, highlighting areas of greater severe potential through the day and into the evening/overnight remains quite difficult/uncertain at this time. One possible corridor of enhanced severe potential is evident across portions of southeast TX and into west LA, near roughly west-to-east outflow-reinforced surface boundary associated with ongoing, locally severe storms. Near and south of this boundary, favorably strong/veering deep-layer flow with height -- residing over the broader region -- will combine with a zone of potential heating/afternoon destabilization to support one area of concentrated severe risk. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible, along with a few tornadoes -- and some risk for a strong tornado or two -- where a few supercells are expected, especially on the southern fringe of what should be more clustered convection. Farther west, isolated convective redevelopment is expected during the afternoon and evening along the trailing outflow boundary intersection with the dryline/cold front across the central TX vicinity, and southward toward the Rio Grande. Weaker low-level shear is expected across this area, but the favorably strong flow aloft combined with mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg should yield a threat for significant severe hail. Storms will spread eastward with time, with a broad area of all-hazards severe risk spreading across the eastern half of Texas and into Louisiana through the evening and overnight. Still farther west, across portions of western and northwestern TX, early-day large hail potential should subside for a time, before additional storms redevelop later into the afternoon near the mid-level low. While surface winds should largely be northerly by this time, adequate buoyancy within the approaching mid-level cold pocket will yield a renewed threat for large hail which may continue into the evening hours. ..Goss.. 04/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA... CORRECTED THUNDER LINE IN WEST TEXAS ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from Tuesday through Wednesday morning across most of Texas towards the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Several tornadoes, a couple of which should be strong, significant large hail, and damaging winds are likely. ...Synopsis... An upper low is forecast to reside over northwestern Mexico and adjacent portions of Arizona/New Mexico at the start of the period, flanked by ridging over both the western and eastern states. The low is forecast to advance steadily eastward, moving across West Texas through the second half of the period. Several lead disturbances within southwesterly/cyclonic flow ahead of this system will spread across the south-central U.S. through the period. At the surface, an outflow-reinforced warm front should reside from central Texas east-northeastward to the Louisiana/Arkansas border vicinity at the start of the period, while a rather ill-defined trough/front shifts eastward across western Texas through the day, and then becomes a bit better defined while moving across central and eventually eastern Texas through the overnight hours. ...Texas eastward to the lower Mississippi Valley... A warm-advection regime will persist across Texas through the period, shifting gradually eastward with time, ahead of the advancing upper system -- supporting broad ascent across the region. With northward advection of rich low-level Gulf moisture, beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates, the aforementioned ascent will combine with abundant CAPE to support multiple rounds/widespread deep convection across the region. Given the widespread, strong-to-severe convection which likely to be ongoing from west-central Texas eastward to northern Louisiana at the start of the period, highlighting areas of greater severe potential through the day and into the evening/overnight remains quite difficult/uncertain at this time. One possible corridor of enhanced severe potential is evident across portions of southeast TX and into west LA, near roughly west-to-east outflow-reinforced surface boundary associated with ongoing, locally severe storms. Near and south of this boundary, favorably strong/veering deep-layer flow with height -- residing over the broader region -- will combine with a zone of potential heating/afternoon destabilization to support one area of concentrated severe risk. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible, along with a few tornadoes -- and some risk for a strong tornado or two -- where a few supercells are expected, especially on the southern fringe of what should be more clustered convection. Farther west, isolated convective redevelopment is expected during the afternoon and evening along the trailing outflow boundary intersection with the dryline/cold front across the central TX vicinity, and southward toward the Rio Grande. Weaker low-level shear is expected across this area, but the favorably strong flow aloft combined with mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg should yield a threat for significant severe hail. Storms will spread eastward with time, with a broad area of all-hazards severe risk spreading across the eastern half of Texas and into Louisiana through the evening and overnight. Still farther west, across portions of western and northwestern TX, early-day large hail potential should subside for a time, before additional storms redevelop later into the afternoon near the mid-level low. While surface winds should largely be northerly by this time, adequate buoyancy within the approaching mid-level cold pocket will yield a renewed threat for large hail which may continue into the evening hours. ..Goss.. 04/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA... CORRECTED THUNDER LINE IN WEST TEXAS ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from Tuesday through Wednesday morning across most of Texas towards the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Several tornadoes, a couple of which should be strong, significant large hail, and damaging winds are likely. ...Synopsis... An upper low is forecast to reside over northwestern Mexico and adjacent portions of Arizona/New Mexico at the start of the period, flanked by ridging over both the western and eastern states. The low is forecast to advance steadily eastward, moving across West Texas through the second half of the period. Several lead disturbances within southwesterly/cyclonic flow ahead of this system will spread across the south-central U.S. through the period. At the surface, an outflow-reinforced warm front should reside from central Texas east-northeastward to the Louisiana/Arkansas border vicinity at the start of the period, while a rather ill-defined trough/front shifts eastward across western Texas through the day, and then becomes a bit better defined while moving across central and eventually eastern Texas through the overnight hours. ...Texas eastward to the lower Mississippi Valley... A warm-advection regime will persist across Texas through the period, shifting gradually eastward with time, ahead of the advancing upper system -- supporting broad ascent across the region. With northward advection of rich low-level Gulf moisture, beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates, the aforementioned ascent will combine with abundant CAPE to support multiple rounds/widespread deep convection across the region. Given the widespread, strong-to-severe convection which likely to be ongoing from west-central Texas eastward to northern Louisiana at the start of the period, highlighting areas of greater severe potential through the day and into the evening/overnight remains quite difficult/uncertain at this time. One possible corridor of enhanced severe potential is evident across portions of southeast TX and into west LA, near roughly west-to-east outflow-reinforced surface boundary associated with ongoing, locally severe storms. Near and south of this boundary, favorably strong/veering deep-layer flow with height -- residing over the broader region -- will combine with a zone of potential heating/afternoon destabilization to support one area of concentrated severe risk. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible, along with a few tornadoes -- and some risk for a strong tornado or two -- where a few supercells are expected, especially on the southern fringe of what should be more clustered convection. Farther west, isolated convective redevelopment is expected during the afternoon and evening along the trailing outflow boundary intersection with the dryline/cold front across the central TX vicinity, and southward toward the Rio Grande. Weaker low-level shear is expected across this area, but the favorably strong flow aloft combined with mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg should yield a threat for significant severe hail. Storms will spread eastward with time, with a broad area of all-hazards severe risk spreading across the eastern half of Texas and into Louisiana through the evening and overnight. Still farther west, across portions of western and northwestern TX, early-day large hail potential should subside for a time, before additional storms redevelop later into the afternoon near the mid-level low. While surface winds should largely be northerly by this time, adequate buoyancy within the approaching mid-level cold pocket will yield a renewed threat for large hail which may continue into the evening hours. ..Goss.. 04/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA... CORRECTED THUNDER LINE IN WEST TEXAS ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from Tuesday through Wednesday morning across most of Texas towards the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Several tornadoes, a couple of which should be strong, significant large hail, and damaging winds are likely. ...Synopsis... An upper low is forecast to reside over northwestern Mexico and adjacent portions of Arizona/New Mexico at the start of the period, flanked by ridging over both the western and eastern states. The low is forecast to advance steadily eastward, moving across West Texas through the second half of the period. Several lead disturbances within southwesterly/cyclonic flow ahead of this system will spread across the south-central U.S. through the period. At the surface, an outflow-reinforced warm front should reside from central Texas east-northeastward to the Louisiana/Arkansas border vicinity at the start of the period, while a rather ill-defined trough/front shifts eastward across western Texas through the day, and then becomes a bit better defined while moving across central and eventually eastern Texas through the overnight hours. ...Texas eastward to the lower Mississippi Valley... A warm-advection regime will persist across Texas through the period, shifting gradually eastward with time, ahead of the advancing upper system -- supporting broad ascent across the region. With northward advection of rich low-level Gulf moisture, beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates, the aforementioned ascent will combine with abundant CAPE to support multiple rounds/widespread deep convection across the region. Given the widespread, strong-to-severe convection which likely to be ongoing from west-central Texas eastward to northern Louisiana at the start of the period, highlighting areas of greater severe potential through the day and into the evening/overnight remains quite difficult/uncertain at this time. One possible corridor of enhanced severe potential is evident across portions of southeast TX and into west LA, near roughly west-to-east outflow-reinforced surface boundary associated with ongoing, locally severe storms. Near and south of this boundary, favorably strong/veering deep-layer flow with height -- residing over the broader region -- will combine with a zone of potential heating/afternoon destabilization to support one area of concentrated severe risk. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible, along with a few tornadoes -- and some risk for a strong tornado or two -- where a few supercells are expected, especially on the southern fringe of what should be more clustered convection. Farther west, isolated convective redevelopment is expected during the afternoon and evening along the trailing outflow boundary intersection with the dryline/cold front across the central TX vicinity, and southward toward the Rio Grande. Weaker low-level shear is expected across this area, but the favorably strong flow aloft combined with mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg should yield a threat for significant severe hail. Storms will spread eastward with time, with a broad area of all-hazards severe risk spreading across the eastern half of Texas and into Louisiana through the evening and overnight. Still farther west, across portions of western and northwestern TX, early-day large hail potential should subside for a time, before additional storms redevelop later into the afternoon near the mid-level low. While surface winds should largely be northerly by this time, adequate buoyancy within the approaching mid-level cold pocket will yield a renewed threat for large hail which may continue into the evening hours. ..Goss.. 04/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA... CORRECTED THUNDER LINE IN WEST TEXAS ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from Tuesday through Wednesday morning across most of Texas towards the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Several tornadoes, a couple of which should be strong, significant large hail, and damaging winds are likely. ...Synopsis... An upper low is forecast to reside over northwestern Mexico and adjacent portions of Arizona/New Mexico at the start of the period, flanked by ridging over both the western and eastern states. The low is forecast to advance steadily eastward, moving across West Texas through the second half of the period. Several lead disturbances within southwesterly/cyclonic flow ahead of this system will spread across the south-central U.S. through the period. At the surface, an outflow-reinforced warm front should reside from central Texas east-northeastward to the Louisiana/Arkansas border vicinity at the start of the period, while a rather ill-defined trough/front shifts eastward across western Texas through the day, and then becomes a bit better defined while moving across central and eventually eastern Texas through the overnight hours. ...Texas eastward to the lower Mississippi Valley... A warm-advection regime will persist across Texas through the period, shifting gradually eastward with time, ahead of the advancing upper system -- supporting broad ascent across the region. With northward advection of rich low-level Gulf moisture, beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates, the aforementioned ascent will combine with abundant CAPE to support multiple rounds/widespread deep convection across the region. Given the widespread, strong-to-severe convection which likely to be ongoing from west-central Texas eastward to northern Louisiana at the start of the period, highlighting areas of greater severe potential through the day and into the evening/overnight remains quite difficult/uncertain at this time. One possible corridor of enhanced severe potential is evident across portions of southeast TX and into west LA, near roughly west-to-east outflow-reinforced surface boundary associated with ongoing, locally severe storms. Near and south of this boundary, favorably strong/veering deep-layer flow with height -- residing over the broader region -- will combine with a zone of potential heating/afternoon destabilization to support one area of concentrated severe risk. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible, along with a few tornadoes -- and some risk for a strong tornado or two -- where a few supercells are expected, especially on the southern fringe of what should be more clustered convection. Farther west, isolated convective redevelopment is expected during the afternoon and evening along the trailing outflow boundary intersection with the dryline/cold front across the central TX vicinity, and southward toward the Rio Grande. Weaker low-level shear is expected across this area, but the favorably strong flow aloft combined with mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg should yield a threat for significant severe hail. Storms will spread eastward with time, with a broad area of all-hazards severe risk spreading across the eastern half of Texas and into Louisiana through the evening and overnight. Still farther west, across portions of western and northwestern TX, early-day large hail potential should subside for a time, before additional storms redevelop later into the afternoon near the mid-level low. While surface winds should largely be northerly by this time, adequate buoyancy within the approaching mid-level cold pocket will yield a renewed threat for large hail which may continue into the evening hours. ..Goss.. 04/08/2024 Read more

MD 0383 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE MID/UPPER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN AND ADJACENT WESTERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0383 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Areas affected...parts of the mid/upper Texas coastal plain and adjacent western Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 081526Z - 081800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may begin to form across and inland of mid/upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coastal areas by early afternoon. This may be accompanied by at least some risk for severe hail, and perhaps a tornado, before storms increase and intensify with a more notable increase in severe weather potential later this afternoon, as activity spreads toward central/northern Texas. DISCUSSION...An initial influx of low-level moisture, which accompanied a significant cyclone now weakening over the Upper Midwest vicinity, lingers along and south of a stalling/weakening boundary now extending across the lower Mississippi Valley into southeastern Texas. This includes surface dew points ranging from the lower 70s across the northwestern Gulf into immediate Texas Gulf coastal areas, and upper 60s F further inland across the coastal plain, which will begin to advect northwestward and northward through the day, downstream of a significant short wave trough turning eastward across the Southwest. Beneath the northeastern periphery of a plume of elevated mixed-layer air advecting across the lower Rio Grande Valley, this moisture already appears to be contributing to sizable CAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg. This probably will increase at least a bit further through the day, as thin spots and breaks in the overcast allow for some insolation. At the same time, models indicate strengthening of southwesterly flow into mid-levels (30-50+ kts in the 700-500 mb layer), beneath a strong upper jet emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, and by early afternoon the environment will become increasingly conducive to potential for supercells. Various model output suggests that at least widely scattered thunderstorms may begin to form across and inland of coastal areas by around 17-18Z, before gradually intensifying and increasing further within northwestward and northward spreading large-scale ascent aided by low-level warm advection. While it is possible that it may take a couple of hours for a more substantive increase in severe weather potential to develop, as storms acquire better inflow of more unstable near-surface air, initial storms may pose at least some risk for severe hail. The risk for a brief tornado may also not be completely negligible, though clockwise curved low-level hodographs will initially be weak. ..Kerr/Gleason.. 04/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 29189796 30279668 31559496 32079393 31989315 31709266 30679286 30279415 29849513 29319588 28649711 28589781 29189796 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from Tuesday through Wednesday morning across most of Texas towards the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Several tornadoes, a couple of which should be strong, significant large hail, and damaging winds are likely. ...Synopsis... An upper low is forecast to reside over northwestern Mexico and adjacent portions of Arizona/New Mexico at the start of the period, flanked by ridging over both the western and eastern states. The low is forecast to advance steadily eastward, moving across West Texas through the second half of the period. Several lead disturbances within southwesterly/cyclonic flow ahead of this system will spread across the south-central U.S. through the period. At the surface, an outflow-reinforced warm front should reside from central Texas east-northeastward to the Louisiana/Arkansas border vicinity at the start of the period, while a rather ill-defined trough/front shifts eastward across western Texas through the day, and then becomes a bit better defined while moving across central and eventually eastern Texas through the overnight hours. ...Texas eastward to the lower Mississippi Valley... A warm-advection regime will persist across Texas through the period, shifting gradually eastward with time, ahead of the advancing upper system -- supporting broad ascent across the region. With northward advection of rich low-level Gulf moisture, beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates, the aforementioned ascent will combine with abundant CAPE to support multiple rounds/widespread deep convection across the region. Given the widespread, strong-to-severe convection which likely to be ongoing from west-central Texas eastward to northern Louisiana at the start of the period, highlighting areas of greater severe potential through the day and into the evening/overnight remains quite difficult/uncertain at this time. One possible corridor of enhanced severe potential is evident across portions of southeast TX and into west LA, near roughly west-to-east outflow-reinforced surface boundary associated with ongoing, locally severe storms. Near and south of this boundary, favorably strong/veering deep-layer flow with height -- residing over the broader region -- will combine with a zone of potential heating/afternoon destabilization to support one area of concentrated severe risk. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible, along with a few tornadoes -- and some risk for a strong tornado or two -- where a few supercells are expected, especially on the southern fringe of what should be more clustered convection. Farther west, isolated convective redevelopment is expected during the afternoon and evening along the trailing outflow boundary intersection with the dryline/cold front across the central TX vicinity, and southward toward the Rio Grande. Weaker low-level shear is expected across this area, but the favorably strong flow aloft combined with mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg should yield a threat for significant severe hail. Storms will spread eastward with time, with a broad area of all-hazards severe risk spreading across the eastern half of Texas and into Louisiana through the evening and overnight. Still farther west, across portions of western and northwestern TX, early-day large hail potential should subside for a time, before additional storms redevelop later into the afternoon near the mid-level low. While surface winds should largely be northerly by this time, adequate buoyancy within the approaching mid-level cold pocket will yield a renewed threat for large hail which may continue into the evening hours. ..Goss.. 04/08/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the Southwest and northern Mexico during the day today. Meanwhile, a surface cyclone will develop in West Texas. A deeply mixed atmosphere is expected across much of the Southwest which will result in stronger mid-level flow mixing to the surface. Winds of 15 to 20 mph are expected across southern New Mexico and Far West Texas with relative humidity in the single digits. Removed the Critical area from the prior Day 2 as forecast guidance continues to trend weaker with surface winds across southeast New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the Southwest and northern Mexico during the day today. Meanwhile, a surface cyclone will develop in West Texas. A deeply mixed atmosphere is expected across much of the Southwest which will result in stronger mid-level flow mixing to the surface. Winds of 15 to 20 mph are expected across southern New Mexico and Far West Texas with relative humidity in the single digits. Removed the Critical area from the prior Day 2 as forecast guidance continues to trend weaker with surface winds across southeast New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the Southwest and northern Mexico during the day today. Meanwhile, a surface cyclone will develop in West Texas. A deeply mixed atmosphere is expected across much of the Southwest which will result in stronger mid-level flow mixing to the surface. Winds of 15 to 20 mph are expected across southern New Mexico and Far West Texas with relative humidity in the single digits. Removed the Critical area from the prior Day 2 as forecast guidance continues to trend weaker with surface winds across southeast New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the Southwest and northern Mexico during the day today. Meanwhile, a surface cyclone will develop in West Texas. A deeply mixed atmosphere is expected across much of the Southwest which will result in stronger mid-level flow mixing to the surface. Winds of 15 to 20 mph are expected across southern New Mexico and Far West Texas with relative humidity in the single digits. Removed the Critical area from the prior Day 2 as forecast guidance continues to trend weaker with surface winds across southeast New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more