Aggregator

WW 92 TORNADO LA TX 090050Z - 090600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 92 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 750 PM CDT Mon Apr 8 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northwest Louisiana East Texas * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 750 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to affect parts of east Texas and northwest Louisiana for several more hours this evening. Strengthening low-level winds suggest a continued risk of isolated supercells and an attendant threat of tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles south southwest of Corsicana TX to 60 miles east northeast of Shreveport LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 90...WW 91... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Hart Read more

MD 0389 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 91... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0389 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0902 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Areas affected...portions of northwest Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 91... Valid 090202Z - 090330Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 91 continues. SUMMARY...A bowing line of storms will pose an increased severe wind/hail threat for the next 2 hours. DISCUSSION...A cluster of supercells has evolved into a bowing line of storms in Stonewall/Haskell/Jones counties. This bowing segment should persist east as it moves into better low-level moisture and nearly 70 knots of effective shear (per DYX VWP). The latest WoFs seems to have a decent handle on the evolution of the cluster through 02Z. However, there is considerable spread in the storm mode from here forward with around half of the members showing one or more supercells emerging out of this bow with other members showing upscale growth into a larger linear segment. Regardless of the exact storm mode and evolution, consensus does show the threat persisting east of watch 91 and a downstream watch will likely be needed. ..Bentley/Hart.. 04/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB... LAT...LON 33250041 33569989 33739951 34019775 33989640 33799591 33419584 33089592 32999686 32799786 32749876 32669941 32610018 32670047 32800049 33250041 Read more

WW 0093 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 81 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...RLX...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 81 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC019-043-089-127-030040- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOYD CARTER GREENUP LAWRENCE OHC009-013-019-029-031-053-059-067-079-081-087-105-111-115-119- 121-127-157-163-167-030040- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATHENS BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA COSHOCTON GALLIA GUERNSEY HARRISON JACKSON JEFFERSON LAWRENCE MEIGS MONROE MORGAN MUSKINGUM NOBLE PERRY TUSCARAWAS VINTON WASHINGTON PAC003-007-059-125-030040- Read more

WW 0091 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 91 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW BWD TO 10 WSW ABI TO 55 ENE BGS TO 30 N BGS. ..BENTLEY..04/09/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...MAF...SJT...LUB...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 91 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC009-023-033-059-107-125-151-169-207-253-263-269-275-415-417- 429-433-447-503-090440- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR BORDEN CALLAHAN CROSBY DICKENS FISHER GARZA HASKELL JONES KENT KING KNOX SCURRY SHACKELFORD STEPHENS STONEWALL THROCKMORTON YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0091 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 91 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW BWD TO 10 WSW ABI TO 55 ENE BGS TO 30 N BGS. ..BENTLEY..04/09/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...MAF...SJT...LUB...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 91 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC009-023-033-059-107-125-151-169-207-253-263-269-275-415-417- 429-433-447-503-090440- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR BORDEN CALLAHAN CROSBY DICKENS FISHER GARZA HASKELL JONES KENT KING KNOX SCURRY SHACKELFORD STEPHENS STONEWALL THROCKMORTON YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0091 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 91 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW BWD TO 10 WSW ABI TO 55 ENE BGS TO 30 N BGS. ..BENTLEY..04/09/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...MAF...SJT...LUB...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 91 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC009-023-033-059-107-125-151-169-207-253-263-269-275-415-417- 429-433-447-503-090440- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR BORDEN CALLAHAN CROSBY DICKENS FISHER GARZA HASKELL JONES KENT KING KNOX SCURRY SHACKELFORD STEPHENS STONEWALL THROCKMORTON YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0091 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 91 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW BWD TO 10 WSW ABI TO 55 ENE BGS TO 30 N BGS. ..BENTLEY..04/09/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...MAF...SJT...LUB...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 91 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC009-023-033-059-107-125-151-169-207-253-263-269-275-415-417- 429-433-447-503-090440- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR BORDEN CALLAHAN CROSBY DICKENS FISHER GARZA HASKELL JONES KENT KING KNOX SCURRY SHACKELFORD STEPHENS STONEWALL THROCKMORTON YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0091 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 91 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW BWD TO 10 WSW ABI TO 55 ENE BGS TO 30 N BGS. ..BENTLEY..04/09/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...MAF...SJT...LUB...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 91 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC009-023-033-059-107-125-151-169-207-253-263-269-275-415-417- 429-433-447-503-090440- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR BORDEN CALLAHAN CROSBY DICKENS FISHER GARZA HASKELL JONES KENT KING KNOX SCURRY SHACKELFORD STEPHENS STONEWALL THROCKMORTON YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 91 SEVERE TSTM TX 082225Z - 090400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 91 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 525 PM CDT Mon Apr 8 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Texas * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 525 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon, with isolated supercells expected. The strongest storms will pose a risk of very large hail and damaging wind gusts. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles north of Big Spring TX to 75 miles northeast of Abilene TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 90... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0091 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 91 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BENTLEY..04/09/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...MAF...SJT...LUB...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 91 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC009-023-033-059-081-107-125-151-169-173-207-227-253-263-269- 275-335-353-415-417-429-431-433-441-447-503-090340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR BORDEN CALLAHAN COKE CROSBY DICKENS FISHER GARZA GLASSCOCK HASKELL HOWARD JONES KENT KING KNOX MITCHELL NOLAN SCURRY SHACKELFORD STEPHENS STERLING STONEWALL TAYLOR THROCKMORTON YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0092 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 92 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..04/09/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 92 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC013-015-017-027-031-081-119-090340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE DE SOTO RED RIVER WEBSTER TXC001-073-161-183-203-213-289-293-315-347-349-365-395-401-419- 423-459-090340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON CHEROKEE FREESTONE GREGG HARRISON HENDERSON LEON LIMESTONE MARION NACOGDOCHES NAVARRO PANOLA ROBERTSON RUSK SHELBY SMITH UPSHUR THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 0092 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 92 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..04/09/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 92 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC013-015-017-027-031-081-119-090340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE DE SOTO RED RIVER WEBSTER TXC001-073-161-183-203-213-289-293-315-347-349-365-395-401-419- 423-459-090340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON CHEROKEE FREESTONE GREGG HARRISON HENDERSON LEON LIMESTONE MARION NACOGDOCHES NAVARRO PANOLA ROBERTSON RUSK SHELBY SMITH UPSHUR THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

MD 0388 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 91... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0388 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0727 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Areas affected...portions of northwest Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 91... Valid 090027Z - 090200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 91 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for large hail will increase through the evening. DISCUSSION...Storms have formed and moved north of a frontal zone across Northwest Texas. The long, straight hodograph, evident on the LBB VWP) supports splitting supercells, with a few already evident in that region. In fact, the only hail report thus far (1.75") came from a left-moving supercell. Expect this cluster of supercells to continue northeast and gradually intensify through the evening as instability increases with northwestward moisture advection. Limited instability to the north of this cluster should limit the longevity of left-movers, with the hail threat remaining mostly south of the Red River. Watch 91 will be cleared in the wake of this cluster of supercells. An additional threat for large hail is expected overnight as stronger ascent overspreads the southern Plains, but this will be handled with a separate watch, if necessary. ..Bentley/Hart.. 04/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 32570114 32820137 33100126 33530082 33690062 33780023 33909965 33809872 33439860 32869877 32479930 32319991 32290041 32310060 32570114 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight across a large portion of the southern Plains and into the lower Mississippi valley. Very large hail remains the main threat, though a few tornadoes and severe gusts are also possible. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low settling southeast across AZ/northwest Mexico. This feature is forecast to progress to a position near 31N/108W by 12z as a 500mb speed max translates into the base of the trough over northern Mexico. LLJ is expected to increase markedly across TX tonight in response to the approaching trough, and this will sustain warm advection across the southern Plains into the day2 period. Moisture continues to surge northwest across TX, and this is reflected in a gradual expansion of deep convection across the TX South Plains (reference MCD #388 for more information). Additionally, an expansive corridor of deep convection is lifting north across east TX/LA within a strongly sheared environment. Sustained low-level warm advection will drive thunderstorm activity across this region overnight. While environmental shear favors supercells, significant storm mergers and clustering suggest one or more MCSs may ultimately evolve. Overall, very large hail should be the primary risk with supercells, though locally damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes are possible. Earlier thoughts regarding the prospect for severe across this region continues. ..Darrow.. 04/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight across a large portion of the southern Plains and into the lower Mississippi valley. Very large hail remains the main threat, though a few tornadoes and severe gusts are also possible. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low settling southeast across AZ/northwest Mexico. This feature is forecast to progress to a position near 31N/108W by 12z as a 500mb speed max translates into the base of the trough over northern Mexico. LLJ is expected to increase markedly across TX tonight in response to the approaching trough, and this will sustain warm advection across the southern Plains into the day2 period. Moisture continues to surge northwest across TX, and this is reflected in a gradual expansion of deep convection across the TX South Plains (reference MCD #388 for more information). Additionally, an expansive corridor of deep convection is lifting north across east TX/LA within a strongly sheared environment. Sustained low-level warm advection will drive thunderstorm activity across this region overnight. While environmental shear favors supercells, significant storm mergers and clustering suggest one or more MCSs may ultimately evolve. Overall, very large hail should be the primary risk with supercells, though locally damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes are possible. Earlier thoughts regarding the prospect for severe across this region continues. ..Darrow.. 04/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight across a large portion of the southern Plains and into the lower Mississippi valley. Very large hail remains the main threat, though a few tornadoes and severe gusts are also possible. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low settling southeast across AZ/northwest Mexico. This feature is forecast to progress to a position near 31N/108W by 12z as a 500mb speed max translates into the base of the trough over northern Mexico. LLJ is expected to increase markedly across TX tonight in response to the approaching trough, and this will sustain warm advection across the southern Plains into the day2 period. Moisture continues to surge northwest across TX, and this is reflected in a gradual expansion of deep convection across the TX South Plains (reference MCD #388 for more information). Additionally, an expansive corridor of deep convection is lifting north across east TX/LA within a strongly sheared environment. Sustained low-level warm advection will drive thunderstorm activity across this region overnight. While environmental shear favors supercells, significant storm mergers and clustering suggest one or more MCSs may ultimately evolve. Overall, very large hail should be the primary risk with supercells, though locally damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes are possible. Earlier thoughts regarding the prospect for severe across this region continues. ..Darrow.. 04/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight across a large portion of the southern Plains and into the lower Mississippi valley. Very large hail remains the main threat, though a few tornadoes and severe gusts are also possible. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low settling southeast across AZ/northwest Mexico. This feature is forecast to progress to a position near 31N/108W by 12z as a 500mb speed max translates into the base of the trough over northern Mexico. LLJ is expected to increase markedly across TX tonight in response to the approaching trough, and this will sustain warm advection across the southern Plains into the day2 period. Moisture continues to surge northwest across TX, and this is reflected in a gradual expansion of deep convection across the TX South Plains (reference MCD #388 for more information). Additionally, an expansive corridor of deep convection is lifting north across east TX/LA within a strongly sheared environment. Sustained low-level warm advection will drive thunderstorm activity across this region overnight. While environmental shear favors supercells, significant storm mergers and clustering suggest one or more MCSs may ultimately evolve. Overall, very large hail should be the primary risk with supercells, though locally damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes are possible. Earlier thoughts regarding the prospect for severe across this region continues. ..Darrow.. 04/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight across a large portion of the southern Plains and into the lower Mississippi valley. Very large hail remains the main threat, though a few tornadoes and severe gusts are also possible. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low settling southeast across AZ/northwest Mexico. This feature is forecast to progress to a position near 31N/108W by 12z as a 500mb speed max translates into the base of the trough over northern Mexico. LLJ is expected to increase markedly across TX tonight in response to the approaching trough, and this will sustain warm advection across the southern Plains into the day2 period. Moisture continues to surge northwest across TX, and this is reflected in a gradual expansion of deep convection across the TX South Plains (reference MCD #388 for more information). Additionally, an expansive corridor of deep convection is lifting north across east TX/LA within a strongly sheared environment. Sustained low-level warm advection will drive thunderstorm activity across this region overnight. While environmental shear favors supercells, significant storm mergers and clustering suggest one or more MCSs may ultimately evolve. Overall, very large hail should be the primary risk with supercells, though locally damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes are possible. Earlier thoughts regarding the prospect for severe across this region continues. ..Darrow.. 04/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight across a large portion of the southern Plains and into the lower Mississippi valley. Very large hail remains the main threat, though a few tornadoes and severe gusts are also possible. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low settling southeast across AZ/northwest Mexico. This feature is forecast to progress to a position near 31N/108W by 12z as a 500mb speed max translates into the base of the trough over northern Mexico. LLJ is expected to increase markedly across TX tonight in response to the approaching trough, and this will sustain warm advection across the southern Plains into the day2 period. Moisture continues to surge northwest across TX, and this is reflected in a gradual expansion of deep convection across the TX South Plains (reference MCD #388 for more information). Additionally, an expansive corridor of deep convection is lifting north across east TX/LA within a strongly sheared environment. Sustained low-level warm advection will drive thunderstorm activity across this region overnight. While environmental shear favors supercells, significant storm mergers and clustering suggest one or more MCSs may ultimately evolve. Overall, very large hail should be the primary risk with supercells, though locally damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes are possible. Earlier thoughts regarding the prospect for severe across this region continues. ..Darrow.. 04/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight across a large portion of the southern Plains and into the lower Mississippi valley. Very large hail remains the main threat, though a few tornadoes and severe gusts are also possible. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low settling southeast across AZ/northwest Mexico. This feature is forecast to progress to a position near 31N/108W by 12z as a 500mb speed max translates into the base of the trough over northern Mexico. LLJ is expected to increase markedly across TX tonight in response to the approaching trough, and this will sustain warm advection across the southern Plains into the day2 period. Moisture continues to surge northwest across TX, and this is reflected in a gradual expansion of deep convection across the TX South Plains (reference MCD #388 for more information). Additionally, an expansive corridor of deep convection is lifting north across east TX/LA within a strongly sheared environment. Sustained low-level warm advection will drive thunderstorm activity across this region overnight. While environmental shear favors supercells, significant storm mergers and clustering suggest one or more MCSs may ultimately evolve. Overall, very large hail should be the primary risk with supercells, though locally damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes are possible. Earlier thoughts regarding the prospect for severe across this region continues. ..Darrow.. 04/09/2024 Read more