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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE UPPER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across parts of the Southeast and the Upper Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... A full-latitude mid/upper trough should be centered near the MS Valley at 12Z Thursday, comprised of two primary shortwave impulses. The southern-stream impulse should pivot northeast and accelerate as the northern-stream impulse becomes the dominant embedded feature. A steadily deepening surface cyclone should track northeast from the Lower OH Valley to the Lake Huron vicinity during the period. ...Southeast... A convective swath should be ongoing from parts of the FL Panhandle into GA on Thursday morning. The southern portion of this activity will have the best chance to maintain a damaging wind and embedded tornado threat from late morning into the early afternoon as stronger boundary-layer heating occurs across FL. Large-scale ascent will weaken with southern extent through the day given the northeastward track of the surface cyclone, in addition to low-level winds becoming more veered in time over the FL Peninsula. Farther north, fast 850-700 mb winds should be coincident with a plume of mid to upper 60s advecting north into the Carolinas. However, diabatic surface heating may be quite limited by abundant downstream cloudiness/stratiform rain north of the deeper convection in FL. Mid-level lapse rates will also be weak and overall instability may remain meager. Still, the high-shear/low-CAPE setup with at least low-topped convection likely persisting until it progresses off the coast will foster some threat for sporadic damaging winds and a few brief tornadoes, mainly midday through early evening. How far north and how long the severe threat persists into Thursday night is unclear, but low probabilities appear warranted through at least the Lower Mid-Atlantic States. ...Upper OH Valley... A synoptically favorable corridor for a few supercells and organized clusters should develop east of the gradually deepening surface cyclone track. This region should have a period where an overspreading mid-level dry slot coincides with the diurnal heating cycle, before early afternoon convection develops within the left-exit region of the strong mid-level jet across the Southeast and southern Appalachians. While MLCAPE will remain weak, a meridional supercell wind profile should be present before low-level flow becomes veered from the southwest. A couple tornadoes, isolated to scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are possible. ..Grams.. 04/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE UPPER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across parts of the Southeast and the Upper Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... A full-latitude mid/upper trough should be centered near the MS Valley at 12Z Thursday, comprised of two primary shortwave impulses. The southern-stream impulse should pivot northeast and accelerate as the northern-stream impulse becomes the dominant embedded feature. A steadily deepening surface cyclone should track northeast from the Lower OH Valley to the Lake Huron vicinity during the period. ...Southeast... A convective swath should be ongoing from parts of the FL Panhandle into GA on Thursday morning. The southern portion of this activity will have the best chance to maintain a damaging wind and embedded tornado threat from late morning into the early afternoon as stronger boundary-layer heating occurs across FL. Large-scale ascent will weaken with southern extent through the day given the northeastward track of the surface cyclone, in addition to low-level winds becoming more veered in time over the FL Peninsula. Farther north, fast 850-700 mb winds should be coincident with a plume of mid to upper 60s advecting north into the Carolinas. However, diabatic surface heating may be quite limited by abundant downstream cloudiness/stratiform rain north of the deeper convection in FL. Mid-level lapse rates will also be weak and overall instability may remain meager. Still, the high-shear/low-CAPE setup with at least low-topped convection likely persisting until it progresses off the coast will foster some threat for sporadic damaging winds and a few brief tornadoes, mainly midday through early evening. How far north and how long the severe threat persists into Thursday night is unclear, but low probabilities appear warranted through at least the Lower Mid-Atlantic States. ...Upper OH Valley... A synoptically favorable corridor for a few supercells and organized clusters should develop east of the gradually deepening surface cyclone track. This region should have a period where an overspreading mid-level dry slot coincides with the diurnal heating cycle, before early afternoon convection develops within the left-exit region of the strong mid-level jet across the Southeast and southern Appalachians. While MLCAPE will remain weak, a meridional supercell wind profile should be present before low-level flow becomes veered from the southwest. A couple tornadoes, isolated to scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are possible. ..Grams.. 04/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE UPPER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across parts of the Southeast and the Upper Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... A full-latitude mid/upper trough should be centered near the MS Valley at 12Z Thursday, comprised of two primary shortwave impulses. The southern-stream impulse should pivot northeast and accelerate as the northern-stream impulse becomes the dominant embedded feature. A steadily deepening surface cyclone should track northeast from the Lower OH Valley to the Lake Huron vicinity during the period. ...Southeast... A convective swath should be ongoing from parts of the FL Panhandle into GA on Thursday morning. The southern portion of this activity will have the best chance to maintain a damaging wind and embedded tornado threat from late morning into the early afternoon as stronger boundary-layer heating occurs across FL. Large-scale ascent will weaken with southern extent through the day given the northeastward track of the surface cyclone, in addition to low-level winds becoming more veered in time over the FL Peninsula. Farther north, fast 850-700 mb winds should be coincident with a plume of mid to upper 60s advecting north into the Carolinas. However, diabatic surface heating may be quite limited by abundant downstream cloudiness/stratiform rain north of the deeper convection in FL. Mid-level lapse rates will also be weak and overall instability may remain meager. Still, the high-shear/low-CAPE setup with at least low-topped convection likely persisting until it progresses off the coast will foster some threat for sporadic damaging winds and a few brief tornadoes, mainly midday through early evening. How far north and how long the severe threat persists into Thursday night is unclear, but low probabilities appear warranted through at least the Lower Mid-Atlantic States. ...Upper OH Valley... A synoptically favorable corridor for a few supercells and organized clusters should develop east of the gradually deepening surface cyclone track. This region should have a period where an overspreading mid-level dry slot coincides with the diurnal heating cycle, before early afternoon convection develops within the left-exit region of the strong mid-level jet across the Southeast and southern Appalachians. While MLCAPE will remain weak, a meridional supercell wind profile should be present before low-level flow becomes veered from the southwest. A couple tornadoes, isolated to scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are possible. ..Grams.. 04/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE UPPER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across parts of the Southeast and the Upper Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... A full-latitude mid/upper trough should be centered near the MS Valley at 12Z Thursday, comprised of two primary shortwave impulses. The southern-stream impulse should pivot northeast and accelerate as the northern-stream impulse becomes the dominant embedded feature. A steadily deepening surface cyclone should track northeast from the Lower OH Valley to the Lake Huron vicinity during the period. ...Southeast... A convective swath should be ongoing from parts of the FL Panhandle into GA on Thursday morning. The southern portion of this activity will have the best chance to maintain a damaging wind and embedded tornado threat from late morning into the early afternoon as stronger boundary-layer heating occurs across FL. Large-scale ascent will weaken with southern extent through the day given the northeastward track of the surface cyclone, in addition to low-level winds becoming more veered in time over the FL Peninsula. Farther north, fast 850-700 mb winds should be coincident with a plume of mid to upper 60s advecting north into the Carolinas. However, diabatic surface heating may be quite limited by abundant downstream cloudiness/stratiform rain north of the deeper convection in FL. Mid-level lapse rates will also be weak and overall instability may remain meager. Still, the high-shear/low-CAPE setup with at least low-topped convection likely persisting until it progresses off the coast will foster some threat for sporadic damaging winds and a few brief tornadoes, mainly midday through early evening. How far north and how long the severe threat persists into Thursday night is unclear, but low probabilities appear warranted through at least the Lower Mid-Atlantic States. ...Upper OH Valley... A synoptically favorable corridor for a few supercells and organized clusters should develop east of the gradually deepening surface cyclone track. This region should have a period where an overspreading mid-level dry slot coincides with the diurnal heating cycle, before early afternoon convection develops within the left-exit region of the strong mid-level jet across the Southeast and southern Appalachians. While MLCAPE will remain weak, a meridional supercell wind profile should be present before low-level flow becomes veered from the southwest. A couple tornadoes, isolated to scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are possible. ..Grams.. 04/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE UPPER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across parts of the Southeast and the Upper Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... A full-latitude mid/upper trough should be centered near the MS Valley at 12Z Thursday, comprised of two primary shortwave impulses. The southern-stream impulse should pivot northeast and accelerate as the northern-stream impulse becomes the dominant embedded feature. A steadily deepening surface cyclone should track northeast from the Lower OH Valley to the Lake Huron vicinity during the period. ...Southeast... A convective swath should be ongoing from parts of the FL Panhandle into GA on Thursday morning. The southern portion of this activity will have the best chance to maintain a damaging wind and embedded tornado threat from late morning into the early afternoon as stronger boundary-layer heating occurs across FL. Large-scale ascent will weaken with southern extent through the day given the northeastward track of the surface cyclone, in addition to low-level winds becoming more veered in time over the FL Peninsula. Farther north, fast 850-700 mb winds should be coincident with a plume of mid to upper 60s advecting north into the Carolinas. However, diabatic surface heating may be quite limited by abundant downstream cloudiness/stratiform rain north of the deeper convection in FL. Mid-level lapse rates will also be weak and overall instability may remain meager. Still, the high-shear/low-CAPE setup with at least low-topped convection likely persisting until it progresses off the coast will foster some threat for sporadic damaging winds and a few brief tornadoes, mainly midday through early evening. How far north and how long the severe threat persists into Thursday night is unclear, but low probabilities appear warranted through at least the Lower Mid-Atlantic States. ...Upper OH Valley... A synoptically favorable corridor for a few supercells and organized clusters should develop east of the gradually deepening surface cyclone track. This region should have a period where an overspreading mid-level dry slot coincides with the diurnal heating cycle, before early afternoon convection develops within the left-exit region of the strong mid-level jet across the Southeast and southern Appalachians. While MLCAPE will remain weak, a meridional supercell wind profile should be present before low-level flow becomes veered from the southwest. A couple tornadoes, isolated to scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are possible. ..Grams.. 04/09/2024 Read more

MD 0390 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR TX PERMIAN BASIN VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 0390 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Areas affected...TX Permian Basin vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 090359Z - 090630Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm development will be possible overnight, with a threat of large hail. DISCUSSION...Low-level moisture continues to stream northwestward late this evening into portions of the TX Permian Basin region. Meanwhile, WV and IR imagery suggests that ascent related to the deep upper-level trough over the Southwest is beginning to overspread the region. While timing remains uncertain, storm development will become increasingly likely overnight, especially near/north of a southward-moving cold front. Steep midlevel lapse rates, MUCAPE increasing into the 1000-2000 J/kg range, and effective shear of 40+ kts will support elevated supercell potential, with an attendant threat of large hail in the 1.5 - 2 inch diameter range. Severe-storm coverage remains somewhat uncertain overnight and could remain rather isolated, but eventual watch issuance is possible given the potential for elevated supercells. ..Dean/Hart.. 04/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 32360300 32700297 33040291 33200177 33110124 32510060 31860073 31130112 30860168 30770276 31710295 32360300 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will align with northwesterly low-level flow in the wake of a surface low across Texas on Wednesday. This will result in very strong northwesterly flow across much of Texas with sustained winds up to 30 mph expected near the Red River and into southern Texas, beneath the strongest mid-level flow. In this same region, relative humidity of 20 to 25 percent is expected. These conditions will combine for critical meteorological fire weather conditions. However, have only added an Elevated delineation, as fuel status remains questionable across portions of southern Texas. Fuels greened up across this region earlier this spring, but there has been minimal precipitation over the past 2 weeks. An additional complicating factor is the potential for wetting rain on Day 1 (Tuesday/Tuesday night) which would significantly impact fuel receptiveness across some portions of the area. Therefore, an Elevated delineation seems warranted at this time. ..Bentley.. 04/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will align with northwesterly low-level flow in the wake of a surface low across Texas on Wednesday. This will result in very strong northwesterly flow across much of Texas with sustained winds up to 30 mph expected near the Red River and into southern Texas, beneath the strongest mid-level flow. In this same region, relative humidity of 20 to 25 percent is expected. These conditions will combine for critical meteorological fire weather conditions. However, have only added an Elevated delineation, as fuel status remains questionable across portions of southern Texas. Fuels greened up across this region earlier this spring, but there has been minimal precipitation over the past 2 weeks. An additional complicating factor is the potential for wetting rain on Day 1 (Tuesday/Tuesday night) which would significantly impact fuel receptiveness across some portions of the area. Therefore, an Elevated delineation seems warranted at this time. ..Bentley.. 04/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will align with northwesterly low-level flow in the wake of a surface low across Texas on Wednesday. This will result in very strong northwesterly flow across much of Texas with sustained winds up to 30 mph expected near the Red River and into southern Texas, beneath the strongest mid-level flow. In this same region, relative humidity of 20 to 25 percent is expected. These conditions will combine for critical meteorological fire weather conditions. However, have only added an Elevated delineation, as fuel status remains questionable across portions of southern Texas. Fuels greened up across this region earlier this spring, but there has been minimal precipitation over the past 2 weeks. An additional complicating factor is the potential for wetting rain on Day 1 (Tuesday/Tuesday night) which would significantly impact fuel receptiveness across some portions of the area. Therefore, an Elevated delineation seems warranted at this time. ..Bentley.. 04/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will align with northwesterly low-level flow in the wake of a surface low across Texas on Wednesday. This will result in very strong northwesterly flow across much of Texas with sustained winds up to 30 mph expected near the Red River and into southern Texas, beneath the strongest mid-level flow. In this same region, relative humidity of 20 to 25 percent is expected. These conditions will combine for critical meteorological fire weather conditions. However, have only added an Elevated delineation, as fuel status remains questionable across portions of southern Texas. Fuels greened up across this region earlier this spring, but there has been minimal precipitation over the past 2 weeks. An additional complicating factor is the potential for wetting rain on Day 1 (Tuesday/Tuesday night) which would significantly impact fuel receptiveness across some portions of the area. Therefore, an Elevated delineation seems warranted at this time. ..Bentley.. 04/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will align with northwesterly low-level flow in the wake of a surface low across Texas on Wednesday. This will result in very strong northwesterly flow across much of Texas with sustained winds up to 30 mph expected near the Red River and into southern Texas, beneath the strongest mid-level flow. In this same region, relative humidity of 20 to 25 percent is expected. These conditions will combine for critical meteorological fire weather conditions. However, have only added an Elevated delineation, as fuel status remains questionable across portions of southern Texas. Fuels greened up across this region earlier this spring, but there has been minimal precipitation over the past 2 weeks. An additional complicating factor is the potential for wetting rain on Day 1 (Tuesday/Tuesday night) which would significantly impact fuel receptiveness across some portions of the area. Therefore, an Elevated delineation seems warranted at this time. ..Bentley.. 04/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will align with northwesterly low-level flow in the wake of a surface low across Texas on Wednesday. This will result in very strong northwesterly flow across much of Texas with sustained winds up to 30 mph expected near the Red River and into southern Texas, beneath the strongest mid-level flow. In this same region, relative humidity of 20 to 25 percent is expected. These conditions will combine for critical meteorological fire weather conditions. However, have only added an Elevated delineation, as fuel status remains questionable across portions of southern Texas. Fuels greened up across this region earlier this spring, but there has been minimal precipitation over the past 2 weeks. An additional complicating factor is the potential for wetting rain on Day 1 (Tuesday/Tuesday night) which would significantly impact fuel receptiveness across some portions of the area. Therefore, an Elevated delineation seems warranted at this time. ..Bentley.. 04/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will align with northwesterly low-level flow in the wake of a surface low across Texas on Wednesday. This will result in very strong northwesterly flow across much of Texas with sustained winds up to 30 mph expected near the Red River and into southern Texas, beneath the strongest mid-level flow. In this same region, relative humidity of 20 to 25 percent is expected. These conditions will combine for critical meteorological fire weather conditions. However, have only added an Elevated delineation, as fuel status remains questionable across portions of southern Texas. Fuels greened up across this region earlier this spring, but there has been minimal precipitation over the past 2 weeks. An additional complicating factor is the potential for wetting rain on Day 1 (Tuesday/Tuesday night) which would significantly impact fuel receptiveness across some portions of the area. Therefore, an Elevated delineation seems warranted at this time. ..Bentley.. 04/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will align with northwesterly low-level flow in the wake of a surface low across Texas on Wednesday. This will result in very strong northwesterly flow across much of Texas with sustained winds up to 30 mph expected near the Red River and into southern Texas, beneath the strongest mid-level flow. In this same region, relative humidity of 20 to 25 percent is expected. These conditions will combine for critical meteorological fire weather conditions. However, have only added an Elevated delineation, as fuel status remains questionable across portions of southern Texas. Fuels greened up across this region earlier this spring, but there has been minimal precipitation over the past 2 weeks. An additional complicating factor is the potential for wetting rain on Day 1 (Tuesday/Tuesday night) which would significantly impact fuel receptiveness across some portions of the area. Therefore, an Elevated delineation seems warranted at this time. ..Bentley.. 04/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will align with northwesterly low-level flow in the wake of a surface low across Texas on Wednesday. This will result in very strong northwesterly flow across much of Texas with sustained winds up to 30 mph expected near the Red River and into southern Texas, beneath the strongest mid-level flow. In this same region, relative humidity of 20 to 25 percent is expected. These conditions will combine for critical meteorological fire weather conditions. However, have only added an Elevated delineation, as fuel status remains questionable across portions of southern Texas. Fuels greened up across this region earlier this spring, but there has been minimal precipitation over the past 2 weeks. An additional complicating factor is the potential for wetting rain on Day 1 (Tuesday/Tuesday night) which would significantly impact fuel receptiveness across some portions of the area. Therefore, an Elevated delineation seems warranted at this time. ..Bentley.. 04/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will align with northwesterly low-level flow in the wake of a surface low across Texas on Wednesday. This will result in very strong northwesterly flow across much of Texas with sustained winds up to 30 mph expected near the Red River and into southern Texas, beneath the strongest mid-level flow. In this same region, relative humidity of 20 to 25 percent is expected. These conditions will combine for critical meteorological fire weather conditions. However, have only added an Elevated delineation, as fuel status remains questionable across portions of southern Texas. Fuels greened up across this region earlier this spring, but there has been minimal precipitation over the past 2 weeks. An additional complicating factor is the potential for wetting rain on Day 1 (Tuesday/Tuesday night) which would significantly impact fuel receptiveness across some portions of the area. Therefore, an Elevated delineation seems warranted at this time. ..Bentley.. 04/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0391 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 93... FOR PARTS OF NORTH TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0391 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Areas affected...Parts of north TX Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 93... Valid 090449Z - 090615Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 93 continues. SUMMARY...Very large hail (golfball to baseball size) remains possible with an ongoing supercell cluster. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out. DISCUSSION...Several supercells are ongoing at 0445 UTC to the west-northwest of the Metroplex, with multiple cells having produced golfball or larger sized hail (up to 3 inches in diameter) within the last hour. While some cell interactions/mergers have been noted with the northernmost cells, the two right-moving supercells ongoing west of Mineral Wells and north of Fort Worth may be able to move east-northeastward with minimal interference in the short term. MLCAPE of around 2000 J/kg and effective shear of 45-55 kt will continue to support supercell potential into the early overnight hours, with very large hail (potentially 2-3 inches in diameter with the strongest cells) as the primary threat, along with some risk for localized severe gusts. Also, low-level flow has substantially increased over the last 1-2 hours on the KFWS VWP, with 0-1 km SRH increasing above 150 m2/s2. This could support a brief tornado threat with the strongest right-moving cells, though relatively cool near-surface conditions may mitigate this threat to some extent. ..Dean.. 04/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 33359899 33639814 33679694 33399637 33109626 32919638 32709657 32609701 32549747 32529802 32539848 32579908 32679931 32979941 33099945 33359899 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TEXAS BIG BEND... ...Synopsis... A compact upper-low will move out of the Southwest and into central Texas today. A strong mid-level jet will emerge across the Texas Big Bend where a deeply mixed atmosphere is present. 20 to 25 mph sustained surface winds are expected with relative humidity of 8 to 12 percent. Fuels in the region are very dry with minimal precipitation in the past 30 days. Therefore, critical fire weather conditions are expected. A wind shift will occur during the evening as a cold front moves south into the region which may lead to erratic fire spread with any ongoing fires in the region. ..Bentley.. 04/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TEXAS BIG BEND... ...Synopsis... A compact upper-low will move out of the Southwest and into central Texas today. A strong mid-level jet will emerge across the Texas Big Bend where a deeply mixed atmosphere is present. 20 to 25 mph sustained surface winds are expected with relative humidity of 8 to 12 percent. Fuels in the region are very dry with minimal precipitation in the past 30 days. Therefore, critical fire weather conditions are expected. A wind shift will occur during the evening as a cold front moves south into the region which may lead to erratic fire spread with any ongoing fires in the region. ..Bentley.. 04/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TEXAS BIG BEND... ...Synopsis... A compact upper-low will move out of the Southwest and into central Texas today. A strong mid-level jet will emerge across the Texas Big Bend where a deeply mixed atmosphere is present. 20 to 25 mph sustained surface winds are expected with relative humidity of 8 to 12 percent. Fuels in the region are very dry with minimal precipitation in the past 30 days. Therefore, critical fire weather conditions are expected. A wind shift will occur during the evening as a cold front moves south into the region which may lead to erratic fire spread with any ongoing fires in the region. ..Bentley.. 04/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more