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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TEXAS BIG BEND... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A compact upper-low will move out of the Southwest and into central Texas today. A strong mid-level jet will emerge across the Texas Big Bend where a deeply mixed atmosphere is present. 20 to 25 mph sustained surface winds are expected with relative humidity of 8 to 12 percent. Fuels in the region are very dry with minimal precipitation in the past 30 days. Therefore, critical fire weather conditions are expected. A wind shift will occur during the evening as a cold front moves south into the region which may lead to erratic fire spread with any ongoing fires in the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TEXAS BIG BEND... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A compact upper-low will move out of the Southwest and into central Texas today. A strong mid-level jet will emerge across the Texas Big Bend where a deeply mixed atmosphere is present. 20 to 25 mph sustained surface winds are expected with relative humidity of 8 to 12 percent. Fuels in the region are very dry with minimal precipitation in the past 30 days. Therefore, critical fire weather conditions are expected. A wind shift will occur during the evening as a cold front moves south into the region which may lead to erratic fire spread with any ongoing fires in the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TEXAS BIG BEND... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A compact upper-low will move out of the Southwest and into central Texas today. A strong mid-level jet will emerge across the Texas Big Bend where a deeply mixed atmosphere is present. 20 to 25 mph sustained surface winds are expected with relative humidity of 8 to 12 percent. Fuels in the region are very dry with minimal precipitation in the past 30 days. Therefore, critical fire weather conditions are expected. A wind shift will occur during the evening as a cold front moves south into the region which may lead to erratic fire spread with any ongoing fires in the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TEXAS BIG BEND... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A compact upper-low will move out of the Southwest and into central Texas today. A strong mid-level jet will emerge across the Texas Big Bend where a deeply mixed atmosphere is present. 20 to 25 mph sustained surface winds are expected with relative humidity of 8 to 12 percent. Fuels in the region are very dry with minimal precipitation in the past 30 days. Therefore, critical fire weather conditions are expected. A wind shift will occur during the evening as a cold front moves south into the region which may lead to erratic fire spread with any ongoing fires in the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TEXAS BIG BEND... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A compact upper-low will move out of the Southwest and into central Texas today. A strong mid-level jet will emerge across the Texas Big Bend where a deeply mixed atmosphere is present. 20 to 25 mph sustained surface winds are expected with relative humidity of 8 to 12 percent. Fuels in the region are very dry with minimal precipitation in the past 30 days. Therefore, critical fire weather conditions are expected. A wind shift will occur during the evening as a cold front moves south into the region which may lead to erratic fire spread with any ongoing fires in the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TEXAS BIG BEND... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A compact upper-low will move out of the Southwest and into central Texas today. A strong mid-level jet will emerge across the Texas Big Bend where a deeply mixed atmosphere is present. 20 to 25 mph sustained surface winds are expected with relative humidity of 8 to 12 percent. Fuels in the region are very dry with minimal precipitation in the past 30 days. Therefore, critical fire weather conditions are expected. A wind shift will occur during the evening as a cold front moves south into the region which may lead to erratic fire spread with any ongoing fires in the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TEXAS BIG BEND... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A compact upper-low will move out of the Southwest and into central Texas today. A strong mid-level jet will emerge across the Texas Big Bend where a deeply mixed atmosphere is present. 20 to 25 mph sustained surface winds are expected with relative humidity of 8 to 12 percent. Fuels in the region are very dry with minimal precipitation in the past 30 days. Therefore, critical fire weather conditions are expected. A wind shift will occur during the evening as a cold front moves south into the region which may lead to erratic fire spread with any ongoing fires in the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TEXAS BIG BEND... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A compact upper-low will move out of the Southwest and into central Texas today. A strong mid-level jet will emerge across the Texas Big Bend where a deeply mixed atmosphere is present. 20 to 25 mph sustained surface winds are expected with relative humidity of 8 to 12 percent. Fuels in the region are very dry with minimal precipitation in the past 30 days. Therefore, critical fire weather conditions are expected. A wind shift will occur during the evening as a cold front moves south into the region which may lead to erratic fire spread with any ongoing fires in the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TEXAS BIG BEND... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A compact upper-low will move out of the Southwest and into central Texas today. A strong mid-level jet will emerge across the Texas Big Bend where a deeply mixed atmosphere is present. 20 to 25 mph sustained surface winds are expected with relative humidity of 8 to 12 percent. Fuels in the region are very dry with minimal precipitation in the past 30 days. Therefore, critical fire weather conditions are expected. A wind shift will occur during the evening as a cold front moves south into the region which may lead to erratic fire spread with any ongoing fires in the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TEXAS BIG BEND... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A compact upper-low will move out of the Southwest and into central Texas today. A strong mid-level jet will emerge across the Texas Big Bend where a deeply mixed atmosphere is present. 20 to 25 mph sustained surface winds are expected with relative humidity of 8 to 12 percent. Fuels in the region are very dry with minimal precipitation in the past 30 days. Therefore, critical fire weather conditions are expected. A wind shift will occur during the evening as a cold front moves south into the region which may lead to erratic fire spread with any ongoing fires in the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TEXAS BIG BEND... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A compact upper-low will move out of the Southwest and into central Texas today. A strong mid-level jet will emerge across the Texas Big Bend where a deeply mixed atmosphere is present. 20 to 25 mph sustained surface winds are expected with relative humidity of 8 to 12 percent. Fuels in the region are very dry with minimal precipitation in the past 30 days. Therefore, critical fire weather conditions are expected. A wind shift will occur during the evening as a cold front moves south into the region which may lead to erratic fire spread with any ongoing fires in the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TEXAS BIG BEND... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A compact upper-low will move out of the Southwest and into central Texas today. A strong mid-level jet will emerge across the Texas Big Bend where a deeply mixed atmosphere is present. 20 to 25 mph sustained surface winds are expected with relative humidity of 8 to 12 percent. Fuels in the region are very dry with minimal precipitation in the past 30 days. Therefore, critical fire weather conditions are expected. A wind shift will occur during the evening as a cold front moves south into the region which may lead to erratic fire spread with any ongoing fires in the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TEXAS BIG BEND... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A compact upper-low will move out of the Southwest and into central Texas today. A strong mid-level jet will emerge across the Texas Big Bend where a deeply mixed atmosphere is present. 20 to 25 mph sustained surface winds are expected with relative humidity of 8 to 12 percent. Fuels in the region are very dry with minimal precipitation in the past 30 days. Therefore, critical fire weather conditions are expected. A wind shift will occur during the evening as a cold front moves south into the region which may lead to erratic fire spread with any ongoing fires in the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TEXAS BIG BEND... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A compact upper-low will move out of the Southwest and into central Texas today. A strong mid-level jet will emerge across the Texas Big Bend where a deeply mixed atmosphere is present. 20 to 25 mph sustained surface winds are expected with relative humidity of 8 to 12 percent. Fuels in the region are very dry with minimal precipitation in the past 30 days. Therefore, critical fire weather conditions are expected. A wind shift will occur during the evening as a cold front moves south into the region which may lead to erratic fire spread with any ongoing fires in the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TEXAS BIG BEND... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A compact upper-low will move out of the Southwest and into central Texas today. A strong mid-level jet will emerge across the Texas Big Bend where a deeply mixed atmosphere is present. 20 to 25 mph sustained surface winds are expected with relative humidity of 8 to 12 percent. Fuels in the region are very dry with minimal precipitation in the past 30 days. Therefore, critical fire weather conditions are expected. A wind shift will occur during the evening as a cold front moves south into the region which may lead to erratic fire spread with any ongoing fires in the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TEXAS BIG BEND... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A compact upper-low will move out of the Southwest and into central Texas today. A strong mid-level jet will emerge across the Texas Big Bend where a deeply mixed atmosphere is present. 20 to 25 mph sustained surface winds are expected with relative humidity of 8 to 12 percent. Fuels in the region are very dry with minimal precipitation in the past 30 days. Therefore, critical fire weather conditions are expected. A wind shift will occur during the evening as a cold front moves south into the region which may lead to erratic fire spread with any ongoing fires in the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL TX INTO WESTERN LA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today across much of Texas into the lower Mississippi River Valley. A few tornadoes and an isolated strong tornado or two, large to very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and severe gusts of 60-75 mph will be possible. ...TX/LA through tonight... A midlevel low over northern Mexico will move eastward toward west TX later today into tonight, with exit regions of embedded jet streaks persisting over central/east TX through tonight. Only weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across central/east TX along a stalled front through tonight, while widespread ongoing convection will persist through the period from central TX eastward into LA. Regional 12z soundings revealed a broad area with rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s) beneath a elevated mixed layer with midlevel lapse rates greater than 8 C/km. As a result, MLCAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg will continue along and south of the rain-reinforced front through tonight from central into east TX, with slightly lower buoyancy farther to the east in LA. Low-level mass response will not be particularly large given only weak cyclogenesis in TX, though there could be some increase in low-level shear later this evening into tonight from east TX into LA. Widespread convection and resultant messy convective modes will be the main concern through the period. Observed and forecast hodographs will favor embedded supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes, isolated very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and damaging gusts of 60-75 mph. Longer/straighter hodographs and closer proximity to the steep lapse rate plume suggest that the hail threat will be greatest across central TX with the more isolated/cellular storm mode. The wind threat will be greater this evening into tonight from east TX into LA, based largely on upscale growth of storms into bowing segments along the stalled front. There will also be some potential for additional storm development tonight across south central TX along the west edge of the richer low-level moisture and with the ejecting midlevel trough, with a conditional threat for very large hail and damaging winds. ...Northern OH area this afternoon/evening... The glancing influence of a midlevel trough moving over Lower MI and a surface cold front could focus isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across northern OH. Surface heating, a modest increase in low-level moisture and wind profiles with mainly straight hodographs will support some potential for isolated large hail/wind damage for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 04/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL TX INTO WESTERN LA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today across much of Texas into the lower Mississippi River Valley. A few tornadoes and an isolated strong tornado or two, large to very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and severe gusts of 60-75 mph will be possible. ...TX/LA through tonight... A midlevel low over northern Mexico will move eastward toward west TX later today into tonight, with exit regions of embedded jet streaks persisting over central/east TX through tonight. Only weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across central/east TX along a stalled front through tonight, while widespread ongoing convection will persist through the period from central TX eastward into LA. Regional 12z soundings revealed a broad area with rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s) beneath a elevated mixed layer with midlevel lapse rates greater than 8 C/km. As a result, MLCAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg will continue along and south of the rain-reinforced front through tonight from central into east TX, with slightly lower buoyancy farther to the east in LA. Low-level mass response will not be particularly large given only weak cyclogenesis in TX, though there could be some increase in low-level shear later this evening into tonight from east TX into LA. Widespread convection and resultant messy convective modes will be the main concern through the period. Observed and forecast hodographs will favor embedded supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes, isolated very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and damaging gusts of 60-75 mph. Longer/straighter hodographs and closer proximity to the steep lapse rate plume suggest that the hail threat will be greatest across central TX with the more isolated/cellular storm mode. The wind threat will be greater this evening into tonight from east TX into LA, based largely on upscale growth of storms into bowing segments along the stalled front. There will also be some potential for additional storm development tonight across south central TX along the west edge of the richer low-level moisture and with the ejecting midlevel trough, with a conditional threat for very large hail and damaging winds. ...Northern OH area this afternoon/evening... The glancing influence of a midlevel trough moving over Lower MI and a surface cold front could focus isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across northern OH. Surface heating, a modest increase in low-level moisture and wind profiles with mainly straight hodographs will support some potential for isolated large hail/wind damage for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 04/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL TX INTO WESTERN LA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today across much of Texas into the lower Mississippi River Valley. A few tornadoes and an isolated strong tornado or two, large to very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and severe gusts of 60-75 mph will be possible. ...TX/LA through tonight... A midlevel low over northern Mexico will move eastward toward west TX later today into tonight, with exit regions of embedded jet streaks persisting over central/east TX through tonight. Only weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across central/east TX along a stalled front through tonight, while widespread ongoing convection will persist through the period from central TX eastward into LA. Regional 12z soundings revealed a broad area with rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s) beneath a elevated mixed layer with midlevel lapse rates greater than 8 C/km. As a result, MLCAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg will continue along and south of the rain-reinforced front through tonight from central into east TX, with slightly lower buoyancy farther to the east in LA. Low-level mass response will not be particularly large given only weak cyclogenesis in TX, though there could be some increase in low-level shear later this evening into tonight from east TX into LA. Widespread convection and resultant messy convective modes will be the main concern through the period. Observed and forecast hodographs will favor embedded supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes, isolated very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and damaging gusts of 60-75 mph. Longer/straighter hodographs and closer proximity to the steep lapse rate plume suggest that the hail threat will be greatest across central TX with the more isolated/cellular storm mode. The wind threat will be greater this evening into tonight from east TX into LA, based largely on upscale growth of storms into bowing segments along the stalled front. There will also be some potential for additional storm development tonight across south central TX along the west edge of the richer low-level moisture and with the ejecting midlevel trough, with a conditional threat for very large hail and damaging winds. ...Northern OH area this afternoon/evening... The glancing influence of a midlevel trough moving over Lower MI and a surface cold front could focus isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across northern OH. Surface heating, a modest increase in low-level moisture and wind profiles with mainly straight hodographs will support some potential for isolated large hail/wind damage for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 04/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL TX INTO WESTERN LA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today across much of Texas into the lower Mississippi River Valley. A few tornadoes and an isolated strong tornado or two, large to very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and severe gusts of 60-75 mph will be possible. ...TX/LA through tonight... A midlevel low over northern Mexico will move eastward toward west TX later today into tonight, with exit regions of embedded jet streaks persisting over central/east TX through tonight. Only weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across central/east TX along a stalled front through tonight, while widespread ongoing convection will persist through the period from central TX eastward into LA. Regional 12z soundings revealed a broad area with rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s) beneath a elevated mixed layer with midlevel lapse rates greater than 8 C/km. As a result, MLCAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg will continue along and south of the rain-reinforced front through tonight from central into east TX, with slightly lower buoyancy farther to the east in LA. Low-level mass response will not be particularly large given only weak cyclogenesis in TX, though there could be some increase in low-level shear later this evening into tonight from east TX into LA. Widespread convection and resultant messy convective modes will be the main concern through the period. Observed and forecast hodographs will favor embedded supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes, isolated very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and damaging gusts of 60-75 mph. Longer/straighter hodographs and closer proximity to the steep lapse rate plume suggest that the hail threat will be greatest across central TX with the more isolated/cellular storm mode. The wind threat will be greater this evening into tonight from east TX into LA, based largely on upscale growth of storms into bowing segments along the stalled front. There will also be some potential for additional storm development tonight across south central TX along the west edge of the richer low-level moisture and with the ejecting midlevel trough, with a conditional threat for very large hail and damaging winds. ...Northern OH area this afternoon/evening... The glancing influence of a midlevel trough moving over Lower MI and a surface cold front could focus isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across northern OH. Surface heating, a modest increase in low-level moisture and wind profiles with mainly straight hodographs will support some potential for isolated large hail/wind damage for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 04/09/2024 Read more