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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS...AND PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern to central Great Plains, mainly Monday evening and night. Large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadic storms are possible. ...Synopsis... An upper low over the Great Basin at the start of the period is forecast to shift east toward -- and eventually into -- the central Plains region through the period. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis will occur over the central High Plains by Monday afternoon, and drift east along the KS/NE border through 12Z Tuesday. Low-level moisture modification from the northwest Gulf, while sufficient for severe storms, will not be overly rich or deep beneath a stout elevated mixed layer. Mid 60s surface dew points should become common over the southern Great Plains ahead of the dryline by evening with upper 50s to low 60s reaching northward into the central Plains. ...Central/southern Plains... Late afternoon to early evening thunderstorm development is expected as diurnal heating and broad large-scale ascent aids in weakening of capping in place across much of the warm sector. Fairly widespread development of storms is expected across the central High Plains and arcing east-southeast along the surface warm front into the Mid-Missouri Valley. Boundary-layer moisture will decrease with northwest extent, but favorable deep-layer ascent within a favorably strong/veering deep-layer flow field will support organized/rotating storms capable of producing large hail and isolated severe wind gusts. Given the very steep lapse rates aloft, very large hail appears likely across parts of central and eastern Nebraska and portions of northeastern Kansas, near and north of the surface warm front, largely after dark as the upper low approaches. Additionally, the possibility of a few surface-based supercells with a tornado/wind threat in addition to large hail will be possible with any warm-sector/surface-based storms. A separate corridor of a few diurnal storms should form in west TX along the dryline within the deeply mixed air. Stout capping should limit storm coverage, but any storm which can develop would become supercellular, with large hail and damaging wind likely. Mid-level height falls and tropospheric flow fields will increase into Monday night, which should result in greater convective development overnight. Large hail and damaging winds would be possible with this second round of storms, along with potential for a couple of tornadoes. Given uncertainty as to where greatest storm coverage will ultimately evolve, the ENH risk area may need to be adjusted in later forecasts. ...VA/NC... A weakening surface cold front should sag south in VA on Monday. Strong heating of a modestly moist boundary layer near and just south of the front will yield a fairly deep surface-based mixed layer. Low-level convergence should be sufficient for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across southern Virginia by late afternoon. Amply strong flow aloft is expected across the area on the southern fringe of the stronger mid-level jet to the north. Amid steep mid-level lapse rates, overall setup should support a few multicell clusters of storms, capable of marginally severe hail initially, and locally damaging wind gusts as storms spread southeast before weakening later in the evening. ..Goss.. 04/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS...AND PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern to central Great Plains, mainly Monday evening and night. Large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadic storms are possible. ...Synopsis... An upper low over the Great Basin at the start of the period is forecast to shift east toward -- and eventually into -- the central Plains region through the period. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis will occur over the central High Plains by Monday afternoon, and drift east along the KS/NE border through 12Z Tuesday. Low-level moisture modification from the northwest Gulf, while sufficient for severe storms, will not be overly rich or deep beneath a stout elevated mixed layer. Mid 60s surface dew points should become common over the southern Great Plains ahead of the dryline by evening with upper 50s to low 60s reaching northward into the central Plains. ...Central/southern Plains... Late afternoon to early evening thunderstorm development is expected as diurnal heating and broad large-scale ascent aids in weakening of capping in place across much of the warm sector. Fairly widespread development of storms is expected across the central High Plains and arcing east-southeast along the surface warm front into the Mid-Missouri Valley. Boundary-layer moisture will decrease with northwest extent, but favorable deep-layer ascent within a favorably strong/veering deep-layer flow field will support organized/rotating storms capable of producing large hail and isolated severe wind gusts. Given the very steep lapse rates aloft, very large hail appears likely across parts of central and eastern Nebraska and portions of northeastern Kansas, near and north of the surface warm front, largely after dark as the upper low approaches. Additionally, the possibility of a few surface-based supercells with a tornado/wind threat in addition to large hail will be possible with any warm-sector/surface-based storms. A separate corridor of a few diurnal storms should form in west TX along the dryline within the deeply mixed air. Stout capping should limit storm coverage, but any storm which can develop would become supercellular, with large hail and damaging wind likely. Mid-level height falls and tropospheric flow fields will increase into Monday night, which should result in greater convective development overnight. Large hail and damaging winds would be possible with this second round of storms, along with potential for a couple of tornadoes. Given uncertainty as to where greatest storm coverage will ultimately evolve, the ENH risk area may need to be adjusted in later forecasts. ...VA/NC... A weakening surface cold front should sag south in VA on Monday. Strong heating of a modestly moist boundary layer near and just south of the front will yield a fairly deep surface-based mixed layer. Low-level convergence should be sufficient for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across southern Virginia by late afternoon. Amply strong flow aloft is expected across the area on the southern fringe of the stronger mid-level jet to the north. Amid steep mid-level lapse rates, overall setup should support a few multicell clusters of storms, capable of marginally severe hail initially, and locally damaging wind gusts as storms spread southeast before weakening later in the evening. ..Goss.. 04/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS...AND PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern to central Great Plains, mainly Monday evening and night. Large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadic storms are possible. ...Synopsis... An upper low over the Great Basin at the start of the period is forecast to shift east toward -- and eventually into -- the central Plains region through the period. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis will occur over the central High Plains by Monday afternoon, and drift east along the KS/NE border through 12Z Tuesday. Low-level moisture modification from the northwest Gulf, while sufficient for severe storms, will not be overly rich or deep beneath a stout elevated mixed layer. Mid 60s surface dew points should become common over the southern Great Plains ahead of the dryline by evening with upper 50s to low 60s reaching northward into the central Plains. ...Central/southern Plains... Late afternoon to early evening thunderstorm development is expected as diurnal heating and broad large-scale ascent aids in weakening of capping in place across much of the warm sector. Fairly widespread development of storms is expected across the central High Plains and arcing east-southeast along the surface warm front into the Mid-Missouri Valley. Boundary-layer moisture will decrease with northwest extent, but favorable deep-layer ascent within a favorably strong/veering deep-layer flow field will support organized/rotating storms capable of producing large hail and isolated severe wind gusts. Given the very steep lapse rates aloft, very large hail appears likely across parts of central and eastern Nebraska and portions of northeastern Kansas, near and north of the surface warm front, largely after dark as the upper low approaches. Additionally, the possibility of a few surface-based supercells with a tornado/wind threat in addition to large hail will be possible with any warm-sector/surface-based storms. A separate corridor of a few diurnal storms should form in west TX along the dryline within the deeply mixed air. Stout capping should limit storm coverage, but any storm which can develop would become supercellular, with large hail and damaging wind likely. Mid-level height falls and tropospheric flow fields will increase into Monday night, which should result in greater convective development overnight. Large hail and damaging winds would be possible with this second round of storms, along with potential for a couple of tornadoes. Given uncertainty as to where greatest storm coverage will ultimately evolve, the ENH risk area may need to be adjusted in later forecasts. ...VA/NC... A weakening surface cold front should sag south in VA on Monday. Strong heating of a modestly moist boundary layer near and just south of the front will yield a fairly deep surface-based mixed layer. Low-level convergence should be sufficient for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across southern Virginia by late afternoon. Amply strong flow aloft is expected across the area on the southern fringe of the stronger mid-level jet to the north. Amid steep mid-level lapse rates, overall setup should support a few multicell clusters of storms, capable of marginally severe hail initially, and locally damaging wind gusts as storms spread southeast before weakening later in the evening. ..Goss.. 04/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS...AND PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern to central Great Plains, mainly Monday evening and night. Large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadic storms are possible. ...Synopsis... An upper low over the Great Basin at the start of the period is forecast to shift east toward -- and eventually into -- the central Plains region through the period. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis will occur over the central High Plains by Monday afternoon, and drift east along the KS/NE border through 12Z Tuesday. Low-level moisture modification from the northwest Gulf, while sufficient for severe storms, will not be overly rich or deep beneath a stout elevated mixed layer. Mid 60s surface dew points should become common over the southern Great Plains ahead of the dryline by evening with upper 50s to low 60s reaching northward into the central Plains. ...Central/southern Plains... Late afternoon to early evening thunderstorm development is expected as diurnal heating and broad large-scale ascent aids in weakening of capping in place across much of the warm sector. Fairly widespread development of storms is expected across the central High Plains and arcing east-southeast along the surface warm front into the Mid-Missouri Valley. Boundary-layer moisture will decrease with northwest extent, but favorable deep-layer ascent within a favorably strong/veering deep-layer flow field will support organized/rotating storms capable of producing large hail and isolated severe wind gusts. Given the very steep lapse rates aloft, very large hail appears likely across parts of central and eastern Nebraska and portions of northeastern Kansas, near and north of the surface warm front, largely after dark as the upper low approaches. Additionally, the possibility of a few surface-based supercells with a tornado/wind threat in addition to large hail will be possible with any warm-sector/surface-based storms. A separate corridor of a few diurnal storms should form in west TX along the dryline within the deeply mixed air. Stout capping should limit storm coverage, but any storm which can develop would become supercellular, with large hail and damaging wind likely. Mid-level height falls and tropospheric flow fields will increase into Monday night, which should result in greater convective development overnight. Large hail and damaging winds would be possible with this second round of storms, along with potential for a couple of tornadoes. Given uncertainty as to where greatest storm coverage will ultimately evolve, the ENH risk area may need to be adjusted in later forecasts. ...VA/NC... A weakening surface cold front should sag south in VA on Monday. Strong heating of a modestly moist boundary layer near and just south of the front will yield a fairly deep surface-based mixed layer. Low-level convergence should be sufficient for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across southern Virginia by late afternoon. Amply strong flow aloft is expected across the area on the southern fringe of the stronger mid-level jet to the north. Amid steep mid-level lapse rates, overall setup should support a few multicell clusters of storms, capable of marginally severe hail initially, and locally damaging wind gusts as storms spread southeast before weakening later in the evening. ..Goss.. 04/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS...AND PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern to central Great Plains, mainly Monday evening and night. Large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadic storms are possible. ...Synopsis... An upper low over the Great Basin at the start of the period is forecast to shift east toward -- and eventually into -- the central Plains region through the period. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis will occur over the central High Plains by Monday afternoon, and drift east along the KS/NE border through 12Z Tuesday. Low-level moisture modification from the northwest Gulf, while sufficient for severe storms, will not be overly rich or deep beneath a stout elevated mixed layer. Mid 60s surface dew points should become common over the southern Great Plains ahead of the dryline by evening with upper 50s to low 60s reaching northward into the central Plains. ...Central/southern Plains... Late afternoon to early evening thunderstorm development is expected as diurnal heating and broad large-scale ascent aids in weakening of capping in place across much of the warm sector. Fairly widespread development of storms is expected across the central High Plains and arcing east-southeast along the surface warm front into the Mid-Missouri Valley. Boundary-layer moisture will decrease with northwest extent, but favorable deep-layer ascent within a favorably strong/veering deep-layer flow field will support organized/rotating storms capable of producing large hail and isolated severe wind gusts. Given the very steep lapse rates aloft, very large hail appears likely across parts of central and eastern Nebraska and portions of northeastern Kansas, near and north of the surface warm front, largely after dark as the upper low approaches. Additionally, the possibility of a few surface-based supercells with a tornado/wind threat in addition to large hail will be possible with any warm-sector/surface-based storms. A separate corridor of a few diurnal storms should form in west TX along the dryline within the deeply mixed air. Stout capping should limit storm coverage, but any storm which can develop would become supercellular, with large hail and damaging wind likely. Mid-level height falls and tropospheric flow fields will increase into Monday night, which should result in greater convective development overnight. Large hail and damaging winds would be possible with this second round of storms, along with potential for a couple of tornadoes. Given uncertainty as to where greatest storm coverage will ultimately evolve, the ENH risk area may need to be adjusted in later forecasts. ...VA/NC... A weakening surface cold front should sag south in VA on Monday. Strong heating of a modestly moist boundary layer near and just south of the front will yield a fairly deep surface-based mixed layer. Low-level convergence should be sufficient for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across southern Virginia by late afternoon. Amply strong flow aloft is expected across the area on the southern fringe of the stronger mid-level jet to the north. Amid steep mid-level lapse rates, overall setup should support a few multicell clusters of storms, capable of marginally severe hail initially, and locally damaging wind gusts as storms spread southeast before weakening later in the evening. ..Goss.. 04/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS...AND PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern to central Great Plains, mainly Monday evening and night. Large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadic storms are possible. ...Synopsis... An upper low over the Great Basin at the start of the period is forecast to shift east toward -- and eventually into -- the central Plains region through the period. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis will occur over the central High Plains by Monday afternoon, and drift east along the KS/NE border through 12Z Tuesday. Low-level moisture modification from the northwest Gulf, while sufficient for severe storms, will not be overly rich or deep beneath a stout elevated mixed layer. Mid 60s surface dew points should become common over the southern Great Plains ahead of the dryline by evening with upper 50s to low 60s reaching northward into the central Plains. ...Central/southern Plains... Late afternoon to early evening thunderstorm development is expected as diurnal heating and broad large-scale ascent aids in weakening of capping in place across much of the warm sector. Fairly widespread development of storms is expected across the central High Plains and arcing east-southeast along the surface warm front into the Mid-Missouri Valley. Boundary-layer moisture will decrease with northwest extent, but favorable deep-layer ascent within a favorably strong/veering deep-layer flow field will support organized/rotating storms capable of producing large hail and isolated severe wind gusts. Given the very steep lapse rates aloft, very large hail appears likely across parts of central and eastern Nebraska and portions of northeastern Kansas, near and north of the surface warm front, largely after dark as the upper low approaches. Additionally, the possibility of a few surface-based supercells with a tornado/wind threat in addition to large hail will be possible with any warm-sector/surface-based storms. A separate corridor of a few diurnal storms should form in west TX along the dryline within the deeply mixed air. Stout capping should limit storm coverage, but any storm which can develop would become supercellular, with large hail and damaging wind likely. Mid-level height falls and tropospheric flow fields will increase into Monday night, which should result in greater convective development overnight. Large hail and damaging winds would be possible with this second round of storms, along with potential for a couple of tornadoes. Given uncertainty as to where greatest storm coverage will ultimately evolve, the ENH risk area may need to be adjusted in later forecasts. ...VA/NC... A weakening surface cold front should sag south in VA on Monday. Strong heating of a modestly moist boundary layer near and just south of the front will yield a fairly deep surface-based mixed layer. Low-level convergence should be sufficient for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across southern Virginia by late afternoon. Amply strong flow aloft is expected across the area on the southern fringe of the stronger mid-level jet to the north. Amid steep mid-level lapse rates, overall setup should support a few multicell clusters of storms, capable of marginally severe hail initially, and locally damaging wind gusts as storms spread southeast before weakening later in the evening. ..Goss.. 04/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS...AND PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern to central Great Plains, mainly Monday evening and night. Large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadic storms are possible. ...Synopsis... An upper low over the Great Basin at the start of the period is forecast to shift east toward -- and eventually into -- the central Plains region through the period. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis will occur over the central High Plains by Monday afternoon, and drift east along the KS/NE border through 12Z Tuesday. Low-level moisture modification from the northwest Gulf, while sufficient for severe storms, will not be overly rich or deep beneath a stout elevated mixed layer. Mid 60s surface dew points should become common over the southern Great Plains ahead of the dryline by evening with upper 50s to low 60s reaching northward into the central Plains. ...Central/southern Plains... Late afternoon to early evening thunderstorm development is expected as diurnal heating and broad large-scale ascent aids in weakening of capping in place across much of the warm sector. Fairly widespread development of storms is expected across the central High Plains and arcing east-southeast along the surface warm front into the Mid-Missouri Valley. Boundary-layer moisture will decrease with northwest extent, but favorable deep-layer ascent within a favorably strong/veering deep-layer flow field will support organized/rotating storms capable of producing large hail and isolated severe wind gusts. Given the very steep lapse rates aloft, very large hail appears likely across parts of central and eastern Nebraska and portions of northeastern Kansas, near and north of the surface warm front, largely after dark as the upper low approaches. Additionally, the possibility of a few surface-based supercells with a tornado/wind threat in addition to large hail will be possible with any warm-sector/surface-based storms. A separate corridor of a few diurnal storms should form in west TX along the dryline within the deeply mixed air. Stout capping should limit storm coverage, but any storm which can develop would become supercellular, with large hail and damaging wind likely. Mid-level height falls and tropospheric flow fields will increase into Monday night, which should result in greater convective development overnight. Large hail and damaging winds would be possible with this second round of storms, along with potential for a couple of tornadoes. Given uncertainty as to where greatest storm coverage will ultimately evolve, the ENH risk area may need to be adjusted in later forecasts. ...VA/NC... A weakening surface cold front should sag south in VA on Monday. Strong heating of a modestly moist boundary layer near and just south of the front will yield a fairly deep surface-based mixed layer. Low-level convergence should be sufficient for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across southern Virginia by late afternoon. Amply strong flow aloft is expected across the area on the southern fringe of the stronger mid-level jet to the north. Amid steep mid-level lapse rates, overall setup should support a few multicell clusters of storms, capable of marginally severe hail initially, and locally damaging wind gusts as storms spread southeast before weakening later in the evening. ..Goss.. 04/14/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper-level cyclone is forecast to intensify and slowly drift southeastward into the Great Basin Today. To the south, strong mid-level flow from an enhanced subtropical jet will move into the Desert Southwest. As strong wind fields overspread the western CONUS, lee cyclogenesis is forecast to begin over the central Rockies. Strong surface wind fields over the Intermountain west will slowly move into the southern High Plains behind the lee trough. Low humidity and increasing winds will likely support elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... As the upper low consolidates over the western CONUS, strong flow aloft will begin to overspread the southern Rockies and High Plains. The lee trough is forecast to slowly deepen into a surface low over northeastern CO by late in the afternoon. With the deepening lee trough and increasing flow aloft, gusty southwest surface winds of 15-20 mph are likely over parts of southeastern NM into west/Southwest TX. Warm temperatures and deep mixing behind the lee trough should also encourage dry surface conditions with diurnal RH minimums below 15%. With area fuels receptive to fire spread a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. More localized fire-weather conditions are possible farther north into southern CO. However, flow aloft will be somewhat delayed here keeping gusty winds more localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper-level cyclone is forecast to intensify and slowly drift southeastward into the Great Basin Today. To the south, strong mid-level flow from an enhanced subtropical jet will move into the Desert Southwest. As strong wind fields overspread the western CONUS, lee cyclogenesis is forecast to begin over the central Rockies. Strong surface wind fields over the Intermountain west will slowly move into the southern High Plains behind the lee trough. Low humidity and increasing winds will likely support elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... As the upper low consolidates over the western CONUS, strong flow aloft will begin to overspread the southern Rockies and High Plains. The lee trough is forecast to slowly deepen into a surface low over northeastern CO by late in the afternoon. With the deepening lee trough and increasing flow aloft, gusty southwest surface winds of 15-20 mph are likely over parts of southeastern NM into west/Southwest TX. Warm temperatures and deep mixing behind the lee trough should also encourage dry surface conditions with diurnal RH minimums below 15%. With area fuels receptive to fire spread a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. More localized fire-weather conditions are possible farther north into southern CO. However, flow aloft will be somewhat delayed here keeping gusty winds more localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper-level cyclone is forecast to intensify and slowly drift southeastward into the Great Basin Today. To the south, strong mid-level flow from an enhanced subtropical jet will move into the Desert Southwest. As strong wind fields overspread the western CONUS, lee cyclogenesis is forecast to begin over the central Rockies. Strong surface wind fields over the Intermountain west will slowly move into the southern High Plains behind the lee trough. Low humidity and increasing winds will likely support elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... As the upper low consolidates over the western CONUS, strong flow aloft will begin to overspread the southern Rockies and High Plains. The lee trough is forecast to slowly deepen into a surface low over northeastern CO by late in the afternoon. With the deepening lee trough and increasing flow aloft, gusty southwest surface winds of 15-20 mph are likely over parts of southeastern NM into west/Southwest TX. Warm temperatures and deep mixing behind the lee trough should also encourage dry surface conditions with diurnal RH minimums below 15%. With area fuels receptive to fire spread a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. More localized fire-weather conditions are possible farther north into southern CO. However, flow aloft will be somewhat delayed here keeping gusty winds more localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper-level cyclone is forecast to intensify and slowly drift southeastward into the Great Basin Today. To the south, strong mid-level flow from an enhanced subtropical jet will move into the Desert Southwest. As strong wind fields overspread the western CONUS, lee cyclogenesis is forecast to begin over the central Rockies. Strong surface wind fields over the Intermountain west will slowly move into the southern High Plains behind the lee trough. Low humidity and increasing winds will likely support elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... As the upper low consolidates over the western CONUS, strong flow aloft will begin to overspread the southern Rockies and High Plains. The lee trough is forecast to slowly deepen into a surface low over northeastern CO by late in the afternoon. With the deepening lee trough and increasing flow aloft, gusty southwest surface winds of 15-20 mph are likely over parts of southeastern NM into west/Southwest TX. Warm temperatures and deep mixing behind the lee trough should also encourage dry surface conditions with diurnal RH minimums below 15%. With area fuels receptive to fire spread a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. More localized fire-weather conditions are possible farther north into southern CO. However, flow aloft will be somewhat delayed here keeping gusty winds more localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper-level cyclone is forecast to intensify and slowly drift southeastward into the Great Basin Today. To the south, strong mid-level flow from an enhanced subtropical jet will move into the Desert Southwest. As strong wind fields overspread the western CONUS, lee cyclogenesis is forecast to begin over the central Rockies. Strong surface wind fields over the Intermountain west will slowly move into the southern High Plains behind the lee trough. Low humidity and increasing winds will likely support elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... As the upper low consolidates over the western CONUS, strong flow aloft will begin to overspread the southern Rockies and High Plains. The lee trough is forecast to slowly deepen into a surface low over northeastern CO by late in the afternoon. With the deepening lee trough and increasing flow aloft, gusty southwest surface winds of 15-20 mph are likely over parts of southeastern NM into west/Southwest TX. Warm temperatures and deep mixing behind the lee trough should also encourage dry surface conditions with diurnal RH minimums below 15%. With area fuels receptive to fire spread a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. More localized fire-weather conditions are possible farther north into southern CO. However, flow aloft will be somewhat delayed here keeping gusty winds more localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper-level cyclone is forecast to intensify and slowly drift southeastward into the Great Basin Today. To the south, strong mid-level flow from an enhanced subtropical jet will move into the Desert Southwest. As strong wind fields overspread the western CONUS, lee cyclogenesis is forecast to begin over the central Rockies. Strong surface wind fields over the Intermountain west will slowly move into the southern High Plains behind the lee trough. Low humidity and increasing winds will likely support elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... As the upper low consolidates over the western CONUS, strong flow aloft will begin to overspread the southern Rockies and High Plains. The lee trough is forecast to slowly deepen into a surface low over northeastern CO by late in the afternoon. With the deepening lee trough and increasing flow aloft, gusty southwest surface winds of 15-20 mph are likely over parts of southeastern NM into west/Southwest TX. Warm temperatures and deep mixing behind the lee trough should also encourage dry surface conditions with diurnal RH minimums below 15%. With area fuels receptive to fire spread a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. More localized fire-weather conditions are possible farther north into southern CO. However, flow aloft will be somewhat delayed here keeping gusty winds more localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper-level cyclone is forecast to intensify and slowly drift southeastward into the Great Basin Today. To the south, strong mid-level flow from an enhanced subtropical jet will move into the Desert Southwest. As strong wind fields overspread the western CONUS, lee cyclogenesis is forecast to begin over the central Rockies. Strong surface wind fields over the Intermountain west will slowly move into the southern High Plains behind the lee trough. Low humidity and increasing winds will likely support elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... As the upper low consolidates over the western CONUS, strong flow aloft will begin to overspread the southern Rockies and High Plains. The lee trough is forecast to slowly deepen into a surface low over northeastern CO by late in the afternoon. With the deepening lee trough and increasing flow aloft, gusty southwest surface winds of 15-20 mph are likely over parts of southeastern NM into west/Southwest TX. Warm temperatures and deep mixing behind the lee trough should also encourage dry surface conditions with diurnal RH minimums below 15%. With area fuels receptive to fire spread a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. More localized fire-weather conditions are possible farther north into southern CO. However, flow aloft will be somewhat delayed here keeping gusty winds more localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper-level cyclone is forecast to intensify and slowly drift southeastward into the Great Basin Today. To the south, strong mid-level flow from an enhanced subtropical jet will move into the Desert Southwest. As strong wind fields overspread the western CONUS, lee cyclogenesis is forecast to begin over the central Rockies. Strong surface wind fields over the Intermountain west will slowly move into the southern High Plains behind the lee trough. Low humidity and increasing winds will likely support elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... As the upper low consolidates over the western CONUS, strong flow aloft will begin to overspread the southern Rockies and High Plains. The lee trough is forecast to slowly deepen into a surface low over northeastern CO by late in the afternoon. With the deepening lee trough and increasing flow aloft, gusty southwest surface winds of 15-20 mph are likely over parts of southeastern NM into west/Southwest TX. Warm temperatures and deep mixing behind the lee trough should also encourage dry surface conditions with diurnal RH minimums below 15%. With area fuels receptive to fire spread a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. More localized fire-weather conditions are possible farther north into southern CO. However, flow aloft will be somewhat delayed here keeping gusty winds more localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should develop late this afternoon in a narrow corridor across the upper Ohio Valley into Pennsylvania and vicinity. Damaging winds should be the main threat. Severe hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes also appear possible as this activity spreads southeastward into this evening. ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast... Surface analysis late this morning shows the northeastern rim of 50s dewpoints over northern KY/southwest OH being quickly advected east-northeastward on a 40-kt west-southwesterly LLJ. The Upper OH Valley is located immediately downstream of a mid-level vorticity maximum over Lake Michigan. This disturbance will continue to move into the base of the larger-scale eastern Canada/Northeast U.S. mid-level trough. An accompanying weak low will migrate eastward from the Great Lakes across NY, while a weak cold front extends to the west-southwest and is forecast to push east-southeast across the Lower Great Lakes before weakening and becoming draped across the Upper OH Valley late. Continued low-level moist advection will likely result in upper 40s to low 50s surface dewpoints within a narrow corridor along and south of a cold front from OH into PA and southern NY. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates due in part to cool mid levels (i.e., -18 deg C at 500 mb) and heating will yield 500-1250 J/kg MLCAPE by mid-late afternoon. Surface-based thunderstorm initiation across this region will likely be delayed until 20-21Z or later, as lingering MLCIN and a cap gradually erodes. Initial development should be focused along the front across parts of eastern OH into western/central PA, with additional development eventually occurring into eastern PA and parts of southern NY. Given strong deep-layer shear and favorable lapse rates, large hail may occur with the more robust cores initially. Some threat for a couple of tornadoes may also exist with quasi-discrete supercells early in the thunderstorm life cycle, as sufficient low-level shear will be present for updraft rotation. But, with the surface front aligned mostly parallel to the enhanced westerly low/mid-level flow, upscale growth into small bowing clusters will likely occur as additional storms develop and cold pools merge as the band of storms moves southeastward. Scattered damaging winds will then likely become the main threat with these clusters through the early evening. As instability wanes after sunset, the wind threat will gradually decrease with southward/eastward extent. ..Smith/Bentley.. 04/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should develop late this afternoon in a narrow corridor across the upper Ohio Valley into Pennsylvania and vicinity. Damaging winds should be the main threat. Severe hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes also appear possible as this activity spreads southeastward into this evening. ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast... Surface analysis late this morning shows the northeastern rim of 50s dewpoints over northern KY/southwest OH being quickly advected east-northeastward on a 40-kt west-southwesterly LLJ. The Upper OH Valley is located immediately downstream of a mid-level vorticity maximum over Lake Michigan. This disturbance will continue to move into the base of the larger-scale eastern Canada/Northeast U.S. mid-level trough. An accompanying weak low will migrate eastward from the Great Lakes across NY, while a weak cold front extends to the west-southwest and is forecast to push east-southeast across the Lower Great Lakes before weakening and becoming draped across the Upper OH Valley late. Continued low-level moist advection will likely result in upper 40s to low 50s surface dewpoints within a narrow corridor along and south of a cold front from OH into PA and southern NY. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates due in part to cool mid levels (i.e., -18 deg C at 500 mb) and heating will yield 500-1250 J/kg MLCAPE by mid-late afternoon. Surface-based thunderstorm initiation across this region will likely be delayed until 20-21Z or later, as lingering MLCIN and a cap gradually erodes. Initial development should be focused along the front across parts of eastern OH into western/central PA, with additional development eventually occurring into eastern PA and parts of southern NY. Given strong deep-layer shear and favorable lapse rates, large hail may occur with the more robust cores initially. Some threat for a couple of tornadoes may also exist with quasi-discrete supercells early in the thunderstorm life cycle, as sufficient low-level shear will be present for updraft rotation. But, with the surface front aligned mostly parallel to the enhanced westerly low/mid-level flow, upscale growth into small bowing clusters will likely occur as additional storms develop and cold pools merge as the band of storms moves southeastward. Scattered damaging winds will then likely become the main threat with these clusters through the early evening. As instability wanes after sunset, the wind threat will gradually decrease with southward/eastward extent. ..Smith/Bentley.. 04/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should develop late this afternoon in a narrow corridor across the upper Ohio Valley into Pennsylvania and vicinity. Damaging winds should be the main threat. Severe hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes also appear possible as this activity spreads southeastward into this evening. ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast... Surface analysis late this morning shows the northeastern rim of 50s dewpoints over northern KY/southwest OH being quickly advected east-northeastward on a 40-kt west-southwesterly LLJ. The Upper OH Valley is located immediately downstream of a mid-level vorticity maximum over Lake Michigan. This disturbance will continue to move into the base of the larger-scale eastern Canada/Northeast U.S. mid-level trough. An accompanying weak low will migrate eastward from the Great Lakes across NY, while a weak cold front extends to the west-southwest and is forecast to push east-southeast across the Lower Great Lakes before weakening and becoming draped across the Upper OH Valley late. Continued low-level moist advection will likely result in upper 40s to low 50s surface dewpoints within a narrow corridor along and south of a cold front from OH into PA and southern NY. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates due in part to cool mid levels (i.e., -18 deg C at 500 mb) and heating will yield 500-1250 J/kg MLCAPE by mid-late afternoon. Surface-based thunderstorm initiation across this region will likely be delayed until 20-21Z or later, as lingering MLCIN and a cap gradually erodes. Initial development should be focused along the front across parts of eastern OH into western/central PA, with additional development eventually occurring into eastern PA and parts of southern NY. Given strong deep-layer shear and favorable lapse rates, large hail may occur with the more robust cores initially. Some threat for a couple of tornadoes may also exist with quasi-discrete supercells early in the thunderstorm life cycle, as sufficient low-level shear will be present for updraft rotation. But, with the surface front aligned mostly parallel to the enhanced westerly low/mid-level flow, upscale growth into small bowing clusters will likely occur as additional storms develop and cold pools merge as the band of storms moves southeastward. Scattered damaging winds will then likely become the main threat with these clusters through the early evening. As instability wanes after sunset, the wind threat will gradually decrease with southward/eastward extent. ..Smith/Bentley.. 04/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should develop late this afternoon in a narrow corridor across the upper Ohio Valley into Pennsylvania and vicinity. Damaging winds should be the main threat. Severe hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes also appear possible as this activity spreads southeastward into this evening. ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast... Surface analysis late this morning shows the northeastern rim of 50s dewpoints over northern KY/southwest OH being quickly advected east-northeastward on a 40-kt west-southwesterly LLJ. The Upper OH Valley is located immediately downstream of a mid-level vorticity maximum over Lake Michigan. This disturbance will continue to move into the base of the larger-scale eastern Canada/Northeast U.S. mid-level trough. An accompanying weak low will migrate eastward from the Great Lakes across NY, while a weak cold front extends to the west-southwest and is forecast to push east-southeast across the Lower Great Lakes before weakening and becoming draped across the Upper OH Valley late. Continued low-level moist advection will likely result in upper 40s to low 50s surface dewpoints within a narrow corridor along and south of a cold front from OH into PA and southern NY. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates due in part to cool mid levels (i.e., -18 deg C at 500 mb) and heating will yield 500-1250 J/kg MLCAPE by mid-late afternoon. Surface-based thunderstorm initiation across this region will likely be delayed until 20-21Z or later, as lingering MLCIN and a cap gradually erodes. Initial development should be focused along the front across parts of eastern OH into western/central PA, with additional development eventually occurring into eastern PA and parts of southern NY. Given strong deep-layer shear and favorable lapse rates, large hail may occur with the more robust cores initially. Some threat for a couple of tornadoes may also exist with quasi-discrete supercells early in the thunderstorm life cycle, as sufficient low-level shear will be present for updraft rotation. But, with the surface front aligned mostly parallel to the enhanced westerly low/mid-level flow, upscale growth into small bowing clusters will likely occur as additional storms develop and cold pools merge as the band of storms moves southeastward. Scattered damaging winds will then likely become the main threat with these clusters through the early evening. As instability wanes after sunset, the wind threat will gradually decrease with southward/eastward extent. ..Smith/Bentley.. 04/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should develop late this afternoon in a narrow corridor across the upper Ohio Valley into Pennsylvania and vicinity. Damaging winds should be the main threat. Severe hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes also appear possible as this activity spreads southeastward into this evening. ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast... Surface analysis late this morning shows the northeastern rim of 50s dewpoints over northern KY/southwest OH being quickly advected east-northeastward on a 40-kt west-southwesterly LLJ. The Upper OH Valley is located immediately downstream of a mid-level vorticity maximum over Lake Michigan. This disturbance will continue to move into the base of the larger-scale eastern Canada/Northeast U.S. mid-level trough. An accompanying weak low will migrate eastward from the Great Lakes across NY, while a weak cold front extends to the west-southwest and is forecast to push east-southeast across the Lower Great Lakes before weakening and becoming draped across the Upper OH Valley late. Continued low-level moist advection will likely result in upper 40s to low 50s surface dewpoints within a narrow corridor along and south of a cold front from OH into PA and southern NY. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates due in part to cool mid levels (i.e., -18 deg C at 500 mb) and heating will yield 500-1250 J/kg MLCAPE by mid-late afternoon. Surface-based thunderstorm initiation across this region will likely be delayed until 20-21Z or later, as lingering MLCIN and a cap gradually erodes. Initial development should be focused along the front across parts of eastern OH into western/central PA, with additional development eventually occurring into eastern PA and parts of southern NY. Given strong deep-layer shear and favorable lapse rates, large hail may occur with the more robust cores initially. Some threat for a couple of tornadoes may also exist with quasi-discrete supercells early in the thunderstorm life cycle, as sufficient low-level shear will be present for updraft rotation. But, with the surface front aligned mostly parallel to the enhanced westerly low/mid-level flow, upscale growth into small bowing clusters will likely occur as additional storms develop and cold pools merge as the band of storms moves southeastward. Scattered damaging winds will then likely become the main threat with these clusters through the early evening. As instability wanes after sunset, the wind threat will gradually decrease with southward/eastward extent. ..Smith/Bentley.. 04/14/2024 Read more