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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... An upper low and strong jet streak are forecast to intensify and eject eastward over the Great Plains today and tonight. A lee low should rapidly deepen over central High Plains with surface pressure falls and the strong flow aloft bolstering strong surface winds over much of the Plains. Hot and dry surface conditions atop drying fuels will allow for widespread critical and localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern and central High Plains... As the main upper low phases with the subtropical jet, 70+ kt mid-level flow will shift eastward and cross the Rockies late in the afternoon and evening. The rapidly deepening lee low will force strong west/southwest flow downslope over the High Plains behind a dryline forecast to mix near 100 degrees west. Sustained surface winds of 25-40 mph are possible behind the dryline given the strong pressure falls and enhanced momentum transfer from increasing flow aloft. Minimum RH values are also expected to be critically low, falling to 10-15% over much of the High Plains. Widespread dry and receptive fuels, combined with strong wind gusts and very dry surface conditions, will support ubiquitous high-end critical fire-weather concerns from eastern CO and western KS, into parts of the Panhandles, and eastern NM/west TX. Localized extremely critical conditions also appear possible as strong winds continue to increase into the late afternoon and evening hours. The most likely corridors for localized extreme conditions will exist from southeastern CO into parts of western KS and the northwestern Panhandles, and across parts of the southwest TX. Here, the overlap of the strongest flow aloft and single digit RH is possible for a few hours late in the afternoon. Uncertainty on the duration of extreme conditions remains too large to introduce any Extremely Critical areas. Considerable uncertainty also exists on the positioning of the dryline and the amount of mid and high-level cloud cover. Will maintain a broader Elevated area to capture the potential for more brief fire-weather conditions should the dryline mix farther east. ...Missouri Valley... Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible in parts of northwestern Iowa into southeast South Dakota this afternoon. Dry air ahead of the warm front and gusty winds will increase prior to precipitation arriving during the evening/overnight. With these dry/windy conditions occurring primarily over marginally dry fuels and over a limited duration, the threat is likely to remain localized. ..Lyons.. 04/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... An upper low and strong jet streak are forecast to intensify and eject eastward over the Great Plains today and tonight. A lee low should rapidly deepen over central High Plains with surface pressure falls and the strong flow aloft bolstering strong surface winds over much of the Plains. Hot and dry surface conditions atop drying fuels will allow for widespread critical and localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern and central High Plains... As the main upper low phases with the subtropical jet, 70+ kt mid-level flow will shift eastward and cross the Rockies late in the afternoon and evening. The rapidly deepening lee low will force strong west/southwest flow downslope over the High Plains behind a dryline forecast to mix near 100 degrees west. Sustained surface winds of 25-40 mph are possible behind the dryline given the strong pressure falls and enhanced momentum transfer from increasing flow aloft. Minimum RH values are also expected to be critically low, falling to 10-15% over much of the High Plains. Widespread dry and receptive fuels, combined with strong wind gusts and very dry surface conditions, will support ubiquitous high-end critical fire-weather concerns from eastern CO and western KS, into parts of the Panhandles, and eastern NM/west TX. Localized extremely critical conditions also appear possible as strong winds continue to increase into the late afternoon and evening hours. The most likely corridors for localized extreme conditions will exist from southeastern CO into parts of western KS and the northwestern Panhandles, and across parts of the southwest TX. Here, the overlap of the strongest flow aloft and single digit RH is possible for a few hours late in the afternoon. Uncertainty on the duration of extreme conditions remains too large to introduce any Extremely Critical areas. Considerable uncertainty also exists on the positioning of the dryline and the amount of mid and high-level cloud cover. Will maintain a broader Elevated area to capture the potential for more brief fire-weather conditions should the dryline mix farther east. ...Missouri Valley... Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible in parts of northwestern Iowa into southeast South Dakota this afternoon. Dry air ahead of the warm front and gusty winds will increase prior to precipitation arriving during the evening/overnight. With these dry/windy conditions occurring primarily over marginally dry fuels and over a limited duration, the threat is likely to remain localized. ..Lyons.. 04/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN IA...NORTHERN MO...AND WEST-CENTRAL IL... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from Tuesday morning into the evening across a portion of the central states from the Corn Belt to the Ozark Plateau. The most concentrated area of significant severe hail and tornado potential is forecast over southern Iowa into northern Missouri and west-central Illinois. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep surface cyclone should be located over central NE at 12Z Tuesday. This cyclone should gradually progress eastward and slowly weaken in IA Tuesday night. An initially intense mid-level jetlet (in excess of 80 kts) should become centered from the Ozark Plateau into the Mid-MS Valley by afternoon, before pronounced dampening occurs as it shifts east across the Mid-South to Lower OH Valleys. The initially north/south-oriented dryline/Pacific cold front to the south of the surface cyclone will progress into the Mid-MS Valley by 12Z Wednesday, with its trailing portion stalling by late afternoon before reaching the Ark-La-Tex. ...Corn Belt/Lower MO and Mid-MS Valleys... A broad spectrum of potential outcomes is evident ranging from mainly a large hail and few tornadoes day to a more substantial tornadic threat. The degree of tornado threat will be dependent on multiple uncertainties becoming more resolved, with the hail forecast the more confident of the three hazards. Within the left-exit region of the aforementioned mid-level jet, a synoptically favorable corridor for mid-afternoon to early evening supercells is evident. Evening guidance varies in the degree of warm-conveyor convection that should be ongoing and how it evolves through midday, with the 00Z HRRR notably more aggressive. This early-day activity will have impacts on the degree of boundary-layer destabilization ahead of the dryline/cold front. At the other end of the spectrum, the 00Z NAM and NAM-NEST suggest a more substantial gap will occur between the warm conveyor activity and afternoon redevelopment along the dryline/front. Other guidance is somewhere in between these two scenarios, and even the HRRR does indicate isolated redevelopment occurring by late afternoon. Confidence is high that pronounced boundary-layer heating will occur behind the surface front and a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates attendant to the shortwave trough will overspread the northwest portion of the surface warm/moist sector during the afternoon. Backed low-level flow and veering of the wind profile with height should support supercells capable of producing significant severe hail and tornadoes. The NAM has been consistently farther west with the placement of the front by late afternoon with most guidance mixing the boundary more aggressively east in IA/MO. ...Mid-South... NCEP guidance is highly insistent that convective coverage should be isolated at best and is substantially less than indicated by the ECMWF. This appears to be related to a lack of more pronounced boundary-layer heating, but also due to fairly warm and very dry mid-level profiles to the south side of the intense but eventually weakening mid-level jet. With the surface front stalling or even advancing back west late, large-scale ascent appears to be weak outside of low-level warm theta-e advection. As such, have begun reducing probabilities from south to north. Still, the deep-layer shear profile and rich boundary-layer moisture will conditionally support supercell potential during the period. ..Grams.. 04/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN IA...NORTHERN MO...AND WEST-CENTRAL IL... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from Tuesday morning into the evening across a portion of the central states from the Corn Belt to the Ozark Plateau. The most concentrated area of significant severe hail and tornado potential is forecast over southern Iowa into northern Missouri and west-central Illinois. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep surface cyclone should be located over central NE at 12Z Tuesday. This cyclone should gradually progress eastward and slowly weaken in IA Tuesday night. An initially intense mid-level jetlet (in excess of 80 kts) should become centered from the Ozark Plateau into the Mid-MS Valley by afternoon, before pronounced dampening occurs as it shifts east across the Mid-South to Lower OH Valleys. The initially north/south-oriented dryline/Pacific cold front to the south of the surface cyclone will progress into the Mid-MS Valley by 12Z Wednesday, with its trailing portion stalling by late afternoon before reaching the Ark-La-Tex. ...Corn Belt/Lower MO and Mid-MS Valleys... A broad spectrum of potential outcomes is evident ranging from mainly a large hail and few tornadoes day to a more substantial tornadic threat. The degree of tornado threat will be dependent on multiple uncertainties becoming more resolved, with the hail forecast the more confident of the three hazards. Within the left-exit region of the aforementioned mid-level jet, a synoptically favorable corridor for mid-afternoon to early evening supercells is evident. Evening guidance varies in the degree of warm-conveyor convection that should be ongoing and how it evolves through midday, with the 00Z HRRR notably more aggressive. This early-day activity will have impacts on the degree of boundary-layer destabilization ahead of the dryline/cold front. At the other end of the spectrum, the 00Z NAM and NAM-NEST suggest a more substantial gap will occur between the warm conveyor activity and afternoon redevelopment along the dryline/front. Other guidance is somewhere in between these two scenarios, and even the HRRR does indicate isolated redevelopment occurring by late afternoon. Confidence is high that pronounced boundary-layer heating will occur behind the surface front and a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates attendant to the shortwave trough will overspread the northwest portion of the surface warm/moist sector during the afternoon. Backed low-level flow and veering of the wind profile with height should support supercells capable of producing significant severe hail and tornadoes. The NAM has been consistently farther west with the placement of the front by late afternoon with most guidance mixing the boundary more aggressively east in IA/MO. ...Mid-South... NCEP guidance is highly insistent that convective coverage should be isolated at best and is substantially less than indicated by the ECMWF. This appears to be related to a lack of more pronounced boundary-layer heating, but also due to fairly warm and very dry mid-level profiles to the south side of the intense but eventually weakening mid-level jet. With the surface front stalling or even advancing back west late, large-scale ascent appears to be weak outside of low-level warm theta-e advection. As such, have begun reducing probabilities from south to north. Still, the deep-layer shear profile and rich boundary-layer moisture will conditionally support supercell potential during the period. ..Grams.. 04/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN IA...NORTHERN MO...AND WEST-CENTRAL IL... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from Tuesday morning into the evening across a portion of the central states from the Corn Belt to the Ozark Plateau. The most concentrated area of significant severe hail and tornado potential is forecast over southern Iowa into northern Missouri and west-central Illinois. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep surface cyclone should be located over central NE at 12Z Tuesday. This cyclone should gradually progress eastward and slowly weaken in IA Tuesday night. An initially intense mid-level jetlet (in excess of 80 kts) should become centered from the Ozark Plateau into the Mid-MS Valley by afternoon, before pronounced dampening occurs as it shifts east across the Mid-South to Lower OH Valleys. The initially north/south-oriented dryline/Pacific cold front to the south of the surface cyclone will progress into the Mid-MS Valley by 12Z Wednesday, with its trailing portion stalling by late afternoon before reaching the Ark-La-Tex. ...Corn Belt/Lower MO and Mid-MS Valleys... A broad spectrum of potential outcomes is evident ranging from mainly a large hail and few tornadoes day to a more substantial tornadic threat. The degree of tornado threat will be dependent on multiple uncertainties becoming more resolved, with the hail forecast the more confident of the three hazards. Within the left-exit region of the aforementioned mid-level jet, a synoptically favorable corridor for mid-afternoon to early evening supercells is evident. Evening guidance varies in the degree of warm-conveyor convection that should be ongoing and how it evolves through midday, with the 00Z HRRR notably more aggressive. This early-day activity will have impacts on the degree of boundary-layer destabilization ahead of the dryline/cold front. At the other end of the spectrum, the 00Z NAM and NAM-NEST suggest a more substantial gap will occur between the warm conveyor activity and afternoon redevelopment along the dryline/front. Other guidance is somewhere in between these two scenarios, and even the HRRR does indicate isolated redevelopment occurring by late afternoon. Confidence is high that pronounced boundary-layer heating will occur behind the surface front and a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates attendant to the shortwave trough will overspread the northwest portion of the surface warm/moist sector during the afternoon. Backed low-level flow and veering of the wind profile with height should support supercells capable of producing significant severe hail and tornadoes. The NAM has been consistently farther west with the placement of the front by late afternoon with most guidance mixing the boundary more aggressively east in IA/MO. ...Mid-South... NCEP guidance is highly insistent that convective coverage should be isolated at best and is substantially less than indicated by the ECMWF. This appears to be related to a lack of more pronounced boundary-layer heating, but also due to fairly warm and very dry mid-level profiles to the south side of the intense but eventually weakening mid-level jet. With the surface front stalling or even advancing back west late, large-scale ascent appears to be weak outside of low-level warm theta-e advection. As such, have begun reducing probabilities from south to north. Still, the deep-layer shear profile and rich boundary-layer moisture will conditionally support supercell potential during the period. ..Grams.. 04/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN IA...NORTHERN MO...AND WEST-CENTRAL IL... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from Tuesday morning into the evening across a portion of the central states from the Corn Belt to the Ozark Plateau. The most concentrated area of significant severe hail and tornado potential is forecast over southern Iowa into northern Missouri and west-central Illinois. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep surface cyclone should be located over central NE at 12Z Tuesday. This cyclone should gradually progress eastward and slowly weaken in IA Tuesday night. An initially intense mid-level jetlet (in excess of 80 kts) should become centered from the Ozark Plateau into the Mid-MS Valley by afternoon, before pronounced dampening occurs as it shifts east across the Mid-South to Lower OH Valleys. The initially north/south-oriented dryline/Pacific cold front to the south of the surface cyclone will progress into the Mid-MS Valley by 12Z Wednesday, with its trailing portion stalling by late afternoon before reaching the Ark-La-Tex. ...Corn Belt/Lower MO and Mid-MS Valleys... A broad spectrum of potential outcomes is evident ranging from mainly a large hail and few tornadoes day to a more substantial tornadic threat. The degree of tornado threat will be dependent on multiple uncertainties becoming more resolved, with the hail forecast the more confident of the three hazards. Within the left-exit region of the aforementioned mid-level jet, a synoptically favorable corridor for mid-afternoon to early evening supercells is evident. Evening guidance varies in the degree of warm-conveyor convection that should be ongoing and how it evolves through midday, with the 00Z HRRR notably more aggressive. This early-day activity will have impacts on the degree of boundary-layer destabilization ahead of the dryline/cold front. At the other end of the spectrum, the 00Z NAM and NAM-NEST suggest a more substantial gap will occur between the warm conveyor activity and afternoon redevelopment along the dryline/front. Other guidance is somewhere in between these two scenarios, and even the HRRR does indicate isolated redevelopment occurring by late afternoon. Confidence is high that pronounced boundary-layer heating will occur behind the surface front and a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates attendant to the shortwave trough will overspread the northwest portion of the surface warm/moist sector during the afternoon. Backed low-level flow and veering of the wind profile with height should support supercells capable of producing significant severe hail and tornadoes. The NAM has been consistently farther west with the placement of the front by late afternoon with most guidance mixing the boundary more aggressively east in IA/MO. ...Mid-South... NCEP guidance is highly insistent that convective coverage should be isolated at best and is substantially less than indicated by the ECMWF. This appears to be related to a lack of more pronounced boundary-layer heating, but also due to fairly warm and very dry mid-level profiles to the south side of the intense but eventually weakening mid-level jet. With the surface front stalling or even advancing back west late, large-scale ascent appears to be weak outside of low-level warm theta-e advection. As such, have begun reducing probabilities from south to north. Still, the deep-layer shear profile and rich boundary-layer moisture will conditionally support supercell potential during the period. ..Grams.. 04/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA...NEBRASKA...AND KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern to central Great Plains, mainly this evening and into tonight. Large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are possible. More isolated severe storms are also possible over parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic with a risk for mainly damaging winds and hail. ...Synopsis... An upper low over the western Great Basin is forecast to amplify considerably as it begins to phase with an increasingly strong mid-level subtropical jet located over the Southwestern US. Early morning WV imagery and RAOBS show this jet is currently moving out of northern MEX into southern AZ and NM. As the upper low and jet amplify, they will move eastward and spread broad-scale ascent over much of the southern and central High Plains late in the diurnal cycle. At the same time, a subtle mid-level perturbation east of the building central US ridge will move south overspreading a modestly warm air mass near a slowly sagging cold front in the Mid Atlantic. An initially diffuse lee trough/weak cyclone is forecast to quickly consolidate and deepen below 1000 mb over eastern CO and western NE by late afternoon. Large-scale mass response from the approaching trough and deepening low will aid in advecting a fairly broad and increasingly moist (mid 60s F surface dewpoints) modified Gulf air mass northward, east of a sharp dryline. While some uncertainty exists regarding convective initiation owing to the late arrival of large-scale ascent, mid and high-level cloud cover and capping, scattered severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards are possible over much of the Plains. Isolated storms are also possible over parts of the OH Valley and Mid Atlantic with a risk for damaging gusts. ...Central Plains Triple Point/Warm Front... A well defined warm front is expected to mark the northern edge of the ongoing moisture return near the KS/NE border at 12z. As the surface cyclone to the west begins to deepen, the warm front should lift northward into central NE and southern SD by mid afternoon. Strong low-level moisture advection and sheltering by mid and high-level clouds should allow for upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints to pool near the front ahead of a subtle shortwave trough on the eastern periphery of the approaching upper low. Diurnal heating and forcing for ascent from the approaching shortwave should allow for removal of remaining inhibition by mid to late afternoon near and along the warm front and closer to the triple point. Mid-level lapse rates near 8-8.5 C/km and cool mid-level temps will support moderate buoyancy with large clockwise curved hodographs. Initial supercells are likely with the potential for large to very large hail. A few tornadoes are also possible given large low-level buoyancy and enhanced low-level SRH along the warm front. ...Central and southern Plains Dryline... Considerable uncertainty exists regarding diurnal convective development east of the dryline. Mid and high-level cloud cover from the active subtropical jet may stunt daytime heating/mixing while the later arrival of the main upper-low will limit large-scale ascent. With a stout EML in place, it is unclear if subtle ascent from embedded perturbations within the subtropical jet and the dryline circulation will support convective development from western KS and OK into the TX Panhandle during the day. CAM guidance suggests a few storms may develop farther south in west/western North TX within the deeply mixed air mass. With increasingly strong wind fields in place these storms would likely be supercellular with large to very large hail and the potential for a couple tornadoes. Additional development appears likely later in the evening and into the overnight hours as a Pacific front moves east and intersects with the retreating dryline. Uncertainty remains high with various model solutions, but higher probabilities of convective development appear likely across western and central KS with mid-level height falls and strong tropospheric flow fields increasing overnight. Large hail and damaging winds would be possible with this second round of storms, along with potential for a couple of tornadoes. ...Ohio Valley into VA and NC... Weak height falls from the subtle trough are expected to move over Mid Atlantic by early to mid afternoon timed with peak heating and modest boundary-layer moisture return. Weak surface convergence along a sagging cold front and surrounding terrain should be sufficient to support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development through the afternoon across the central OH Valley into eastern WV and northern VA. Ahead of the front, potentially low 50s F surface dewpoints and mid-level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km will support 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE with moderately strong mid and upper-level flow. Several bands or clusters of storms are expected to develop and may pose a risk for isolated severe hail and damaging wind gusts as they track east/southeast into the evening hours. The threat should gradually diminish after sunset with the loss of diurnal heating. ..Lyons/Kerr.. 04/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA...NEBRASKA...AND KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern to central Great Plains, mainly this evening and into tonight. Large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are possible. More isolated severe storms are also possible over parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic with a risk for mainly damaging winds and hail. ...Synopsis... An upper low over the western Great Basin is forecast to amplify considerably as it begins to phase with an increasingly strong mid-level subtropical jet located over the Southwestern US. Early morning WV imagery and RAOBS show this jet is currently moving out of northern MEX into southern AZ and NM. As the upper low and jet amplify, they will move eastward and spread broad-scale ascent over much of the southern and central High Plains late in the diurnal cycle. At the same time, a subtle mid-level perturbation east of the building central US ridge will move south overspreading a modestly warm air mass near a slowly sagging cold front in the Mid Atlantic. An initially diffuse lee trough/weak cyclone is forecast to quickly consolidate and deepen below 1000 mb over eastern CO and western NE by late afternoon. Large-scale mass response from the approaching trough and deepening low will aid in advecting a fairly broad and increasingly moist (mid 60s F surface dewpoints) modified Gulf air mass northward, east of a sharp dryline. While some uncertainty exists regarding convective initiation owing to the late arrival of large-scale ascent, mid and high-level cloud cover and capping, scattered severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards are possible over much of the Plains. Isolated storms are also possible over parts of the OH Valley and Mid Atlantic with a risk for damaging gusts. ...Central Plains Triple Point/Warm Front... A well defined warm front is expected to mark the northern edge of the ongoing moisture return near the KS/NE border at 12z. As the surface cyclone to the west begins to deepen, the warm front should lift northward into central NE and southern SD by mid afternoon. Strong low-level moisture advection and sheltering by mid and high-level clouds should allow for upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints to pool near the front ahead of a subtle shortwave trough on the eastern periphery of the approaching upper low. Diurnal heating and forcing for ascent from the approaching shortwave should allow for removal of remaining inhibition by mid to late afternoon near and along the warm front and closer to the triple point. Mid-level lapse rates near 8-8.5 C/km and cool mid-level temps will support moderate buoyancy with large clockwise curved hodographs. Initial supercells are likely with the potential for large to very large hail. A few tornadoes are also possible given large low-level buoyancy and enhanced low-level SRH along the warm front. ...Central and southern Plains Dryline... Considerable uncertainty exists regarding diurnal convective development east of the dryline. Mid and high-level cloud cover from the active subtropical jet may stunt daytime heating/mixing while the later arrival of the main upper-low will limit large-scale ascent. With a stout EML in place, it is unclear if subtle ascent from embedded perturbations within the subtropical jet and the dryline circulation will support convective development from western KS and OK into the TX Panhandle during the day. CAM guidance suggests a few storms may develop farther south in west/western North TX within the deeply mixed air mass. With increasingly strong wind fields in place these storms would likely be supercellular with large to very large hail and the potential for a couple tornadoes. Additional development appears likely later in the evening and into the overnight hours as a Pacific front moves east and intersects with the retreating dryline. Uncertainty remains high with various model solutions, but higher probabilities of convective development appear likely across western and central KS with mid-level height falls and strong tropospheric flow fields increasing overnight. Large hail and damaging winds would be possible with this second round of storms, along with potential for a couple of tornadoes. ...Ohio Valley into VA and NC... Weak height falls from the subtle trough are expected to move over Mid Atlantic by early to mid afternoon timed with peak heating and modest boundary-layer moisture return. Weak surface convergence along a sagging cold front and surrounding terrain should be sufficient to support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development through the afternoon across the central OH Valley into eastern WV and northern VA. Ahead of the front, potentially low 50s F surface dewpoints and mid-level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km will support 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE with moderately strong mid and upper-level flow. Several bands or clusters of storms are expected to develop and may pose a risk for isolated severe hail and damaging wind gusts as they track east/southeast into the evening hours. The threat should gradually diminish after sunset with the loss of diurnal heating. ..Lyons/Kerr.. 04/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA...NEBRASKA...AND KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern to central Great Plains, mainly this evening and into tonight. Large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are possible. More isolated severe storms are also possible over parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic with a risk for mainly damaging winds and hail. ...Synopsis... An upper low over the western Great Basin is forecast to amplify considerably as it begins to phase with an increasingly strong mid-level subtropical jet located over the Southwestern US. Early morning WV imagery and RAOBS show this jet is currently moving out of northern MEX into southern AZ and NM. As the upper low and jet amplify, they will move eastward and spread broad-scale ascent over much of the southern and central High Plains late in the diurnal cycle. At the same time, a subtle mid-level perturbation east of the building central US ridge will move south overspreading a modestly warm air mass near a slowly sagging cold front in the Mid Atlantic. An initially diffuse lee trough/weak cyclone is forecast to quickly consolidate and deepen below 1000 mb over eastern CO and western NE by late afternoon. Large-scale mass response from the approaching trough and deepening low will aid in advecting a fairly broad and increasingly moist (mid 60s F surface dewpoints) modified Gulf air mass northward, east of a sharp dryline. While some uncertainty exists regarding convective initiation owing to the late arrival of large-scale ascent, mid and high-level cloud cover and capping, scattered severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards are possible over much of the Plains. Isolated storms are also possible over parts of the OH Valley and Mid Atlantic with a risk for damaging gusts. ...Central Plains Triple Point/Warm Front... A well defined warm front is expected to mark the northern edge of the ongoing moisture return near the KS/NE border at 12z. As the surface cyclone to the west begins to deepen, the warm front should lift northward into central NE and southern SD by mid afternoon. Strong low-level moisture advection and sheltering by mid and high-level clouds should allow for upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints to pool near the front ahead of a subtle shortwave trough on the eastern periphery of the approaching upper low. Diurnal heating and forcing for ascent from the approaching shortwave should allow for removal of remaining inhibition by mid to late afternoon near and along the warm front and closer to the triple point. Mid-level lapse rates near 8-8.5 C/km and cool mid-level temps will support moderate buoyancy with large clockwise curved hodographs. Initial supercells are likely with the potential for large to very large hail. A few tornadoes are also possible given large low-level buoyancy and enhanced low-level SRH along the warm front. ...Central and southern Plains Dryline... Considerable uncertainty exists regarding diurnal convective development east of the dryline. Mid and high-level cloud cover from the active subtropical jet may stunt daytime heating/mixing while the later arrival of the main upper-low will limit large-scale ascent. With a stout EML in place, it is unclear if subtle ascent from embedded perturbations within the subtropical jet and the dryline circulation will support convective development from western KS and OK into the TX Panhandle during the day. CAM guidance suggests a few storms may develop farther south in west/western North TX within the deeply mixed air mass. With increasingly strong wind fields in place these storms would likely be supercellular with large to very large hail and the potential for a couple tornadoes. Additional development appears likely later in the evening and into the overnight hours as a Pacific front moves east and intersects with the retreating dryline. Uncertainty remains high with various model solutions, but higher probabilities of convective development appear likely across western and central KS with mid-level height falls and strong tropospheric flow fields increasing overnight. Large hail and damaging winds would be possible with this second round of storms, along with potential for a couple of tornadoes. ...Ohio Valley into VA and NC... Weak height falls from the subtle trough are expected to move over Mid Atlantic by early to mid afternoon timed with peak heating and modest boundary-layer moisture return. Weak surface convergence along a sagging cold front and surrounding terrain should be sufficient to support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development through the afternoon across the central OH Valley into eastern WV and northern VA. Ahead of the front, potentially low 50s F surface dewpoints and mid-level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km will support 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE with moderately strong mid and upper-level flow. Several bands or clusters of storms are expected to develop and may pose a risk for isolated severe hail and damaging wind gusts as they track east/southeast into the evening hours. The threat should gradually diminish after sunset with the loss of diurnal heating. ..Lyons/Kerr.. 04/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA...NEBRASKA...AND KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern to central Great Plains, mainly this evening and into tonight. Large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are possible. More isolated severe storms are also possible over parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic with a risk for mainly damaging winds and hail. ...Synopsis... An upper low over the western Great Basin is forecast to amplify considerably as it begins to phase with an increasingly strong mid-level subtropical jet located over the Southwestern US. Early morning WV imagery and RAOBS show this jet is currently moving out of northern MEX into southern AZ and NM. As the upper low and jet amplify, they will move eastward and spread broad-scale ascent over much of the southern and central High Plains late in the diurnal cycle. At the same time, a subtle mid-level perturbation east of the building central US ridge will move south overspreading a modestly warm air mass near a slowly sagging cold front in the Mid Atlantic. An initially diffuse lee trough/weak cyclone is forecast to quickly consolidate and deepen below 1000 mb over eastern CO and western NE by late afternoon. Large-scale mass response from the approaching trough and deepening low will aid in advecting a fairly broad and increasingly moist (mid 60s F surface dewpoints) modified Gulf air mass northward, east of a sharp dryline. While some uncertainty exists regarding convective initiation owing to the late arrival of large-scale ascent, mid and high-level cloud cover and capping, scattered severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards are possible over much of the Plains. Isolated storms are also possible over parts of the OH Valley and Mid Atlantic with a risk for damaging gusts. ...Central Plains Triple Point/Warm Front... A well defined warm front is expected to mark the northern edge of the ongoing moisture return near the KS/NE border at 12z. As the surface cyclone to the west begins to deepen, the warm front should lift northward into central NE and southern SD by mid afternoon. Strong low-level moisture advection and sheltering by mid and high-level clouds should allow for upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints to pool near the front ahead of a subtle shortwave trough on the eastern periphery of the approaching upper low. Diurnal heating and forcing for ascent from the approaching shortwave should allow for removal of remaining inhibition by mid to late afternoon near and along the warm front and closer to the triple point. Mid-level lapse rates near 8-8.5 C/km and cool mid-level temps will support moderate buoyancy with large clockwise curved hodographs. Initial supercells are likely with the potential for large to very large hail. A few tornadoes are also possible given large low-level buoyancy and enhanced low-level SRH along the warm front. ...Central and southern Plains Dryline... Considerable uncertainty exists regarding diurnal convective development east of the dryline. Mid and high-level cloud cover from the active subtropical jet may stunt daytime heating/mixing while the later arrival of the main upper-low will limit large-scale ascent. With a stout EML in place, it is unclear if subtle ascent from embedded perturbations within the subtropical jet and the dryline circulation will support convective development from western KS and OK into the TX Panhandle during the day. CAM guidance suggests a few storms may develop farther south in west/western North TX within the deeply mixed air mass. With increasingly strong wind fields in place these storms would likely be supercellular with large to very large hail and the potential for a couple tornadoes. Additional development appears likely later in the evening and into the overnight hours as a Pacific front moves east and intersects with the retreating dryline. Uncertainty remains high with various model solutions, but higher probabilities of convective development appear likely across western and central KS with mid-level height falls and strong tropospheric flow fields increasing overnight. Large hail and damaging winds would be possible with this second round of storms, along with potential for a couple of tornadoes. ...Ohio Valley into VA and NC... Weak height falls from the subtle trough are expected to move over Mid Atlantic by early to mid afternoon timed with peak heating and modest boundary-layer moisture return. Weak surface convergence along a sagging cold front and surrounding terrain should be sufficient to support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development through the afternoon across the central OH Valley into eastern WV and northern VA. Ahead of the front, potentially low 50s F surface dewpoints and mid-level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km will support 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE with moderately strong mid and upper-level flow. Several bands or clusters of storms are expected to develop and may pose a risk for isolated severe hail and damaging wind gusts as they track east/southeast into the evening hours. The threat should gradually diminish after sunset with the loss of diurnal heating. ..Lyons/Kerr.. 04/15/2024 Read more

WW 0108 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 108 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW MFD TO 15 N CAK TO 20 NNW UNV TO 10 NE UNV TO 20 ESE MGW. WW 108 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 150300Z DEPENDING ON SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0437 ..DEAN..04/15/24 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...CTP...BGM... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 108 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC013-019-029-031-059-067-075-081-099-111-119-121-151-157-169- 150300- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA COSHOCTON GUERNSEY HARRISON HOLMES JEFFERSON MAHONING MONROE MUSKINGUM NOBLE STARK TUSCARAWAS WAYNE PAC003-005-007-009-013-019-021-027-031-033-051-059-063-065-073- 111-125-129-150300- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG BEAVER Read more

WW 108 SEVERE TSTM OH PA WV 142055Z - 150300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 108 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 455 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Ohio Western and Northern Pennsylvania Northern West Virginia Panhandle * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 455 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A band of thunderstorms is forecast to develop from eastern Ohio into western and northern Pennsylvania late this afternoon into the evening. The thunderstorms will intensify and the stronger storms will be capable of damaging gusts and large hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles south southwest of Mansfield OH to 10 miles southeast of Wilkesbarre PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Smith Read more

MD 0437 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 108... FOR PART OF EASTERN OH...WESTERN/CENTRAL PA...NORTHERN WV PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0437 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0834 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Areas affected...Part of eastern OH...western/central PA...northern WV Panhandle Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108... Valid 150134Z - 150300Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for isolated hail and damaging wind continues, but should gradually diminish with time later tonight. DISCUSSION...A persistent storm cluster continues to backbuild across far eastern OH into western PA this evening, aided by a feed of modest low-level moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates (as noted on regional 00Z soundings). Deep-layer flow/shear remains sufficient for organized convection, and a couple of transient supercells have been noted this evening within the broader storm cluster. Large hail will continue to be a threat with the stronger cells near the western edge of the storm cluster, where a somewhat more discrete mode can be maintained. Rather strong low-level flow within a remnant well-mixed boundary layer will also continue to support a threat of isolated damaging gusts. With time, nocturnal cooling/stabilization will result in storms becoming increasingly elevated, with continued convection tending to deplete remaining MUCAPE (as has already occurred farther east). However, in the short term, some severe threat will spread southeastward in conjunction with the primary outflow boundary. Continued redevelopment of convection is also possible into northeast OH, where steep midlevel lapse rates could support an isolated hail threat into late evening. ..Dean.. 04/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...CLE... LAT...LON 40288172 40488206 40828236 41138228 41168222 41258177 41268071 41207770 41117753 40767724 40357743 40177818 40087948 40158143 40288172 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OH INTO NORTHERN WESTERN VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms across the upper Ohio Valley into Pennsylvania and vicinity will move southward toward Virginia and the Atlantic Coast tonight, while weakening. Damaging winds and hail should be the main threat, though a tornado or two will remain possible this evening. ...01z Update... The ongoing linear cluster of storms currently located across eastern OH into central PA have produced numerous reports of hail and damaging winds this evening. Generally, the intensity of these storms has decreased as diurnal heating has waned and storms have moved into a drier environment farther south. A slow weakening trend is expected to continue into the evening as the cold front sags south and the air mass stabilizes. However, MUCAPE around 500 J/kg and moderate deep-layer shear should remain sufficient for damaging gusts and some hail, especially with storms training on the western edge of the ongoing complex. These storms are expected to move south, while weakening, across western/central PA and into northern WV/VA tonight. Given the relatively high observed cloud bases, the tornado risk is appreciably lower, though strong low-level shear may still support a brief spin up with the more organized storms. Storm development will remain possible along western portions of the front and the trailing outflow into central and northeastern OH tonight. However, confidence in storm coverage here is low owing to modest buoyancy and forcing for ascent. Will maintain MRGL/SLGT probabilities here for hail and damaging winds. The main update to the outlook was to remove the Level-3 ENH, and trim higher probabilities from the north and west where the front and convection have moved farther south. ..Lyons.. 04/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OH INTO NORTHERN WESTERN VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms across the upper Ohio Valley into Pennsylvania and vicinity will move southward toward Virginia and the Atlantic Coast tonight, while weakening. Damaging winds and hail should be the main threat, though a tornado or two will remain possible this evening. ...01z Update... The ongoing linear cluster of storms currently located across eastern OH into central PA have produced numerous reports of hail and damaging winds this evening. Generally, the intensity of these storms has decreased as diurnal heating has waned and storms have moved into a drier environment farther south. A slow weakening trend is expected to continue into the evening as the cold front sags south and the air mass stabilizes. However, MUCAPE around 500 J/kg and moderate deep-layer shear should remain sufficient for damaging gusts and some hail, especially with storms training on the western edge of the ongoing complex. These storms are expected to move south, while weakening, across western/central PA and into northern WV/VA tonight. Given the relatively high observed cloud bases, the tornado risk is appreciably lower, though strong low-level shear may still support a brief spin up with the more organized storms. Storm development will remain possible along western portions of the front and the trailing outflow into central and northeastern OH tonight. However, confidence in storm coverage here is low owing to modest buoyancy and forcing for ascent. Will maintain MRGL/SLGT probabilities here for hail and damaging winds. The main update to the outlook was to remove the Level-3 ENH, and trim higher probabilities from the north and west where the front and convection have moved farther south. ..Lyons.. 04/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OH INTO NORTHERN WESTERN VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms across the upper Ohio Valley into Pennsylvania and vicinity will move southward toward Virginia and the Atlantic Coast tonight, while weakening. Damaging winds and hail should be the main threat, though a tornado or two will remain possible this evening. ...01z Update... The ongoing linear cluster of storms currently located across eastern OH into central PA have produced numerous reports of hail and damaging winds this evening. Generally, the intensity of these storms has decreased as diurnal heating has waned and storms have moved into a drier environment farther south. A slow weakening trend is expected to continue into the evening as the cold front sags south and the air mass stabilizes. However, MUCAPE around 500 J/kg and moderate deep-layer shear should remain sufficient for damaging gusts and some hail, especially with storms training on the western edge of the ongoing complex. These storms are expected to move south, while weakening, across western/central PA and into northern WV/VA tonight. Given the relatively high observed cloud bases, the tornado risk is appreciably lower, though strong low-level shear may still support a brief spin up with the more organized storms. Storm development will remain possible along western portions of the front and the trailing outflow into central and northeastern OH tonight. However, confidence in storm coverage here is low owing to modest buoyancy and forcing for ascent. Will maintain MRGL/SLGT probabilities here for hail and damaging winds. The main update to the outlook was to remove the Level-3 ENH, and trim higher probabilities from the north and west where the front and convection have moved farther south. ..Lyons.. 04/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OH INTO NORTHERN WESTERN VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms across the upper Ohio Valley into Pennsylvania and vicinity will move southward toward Virginia and the Atlantic Coast tonight, while weakening. Damaging winds and hail should be the main threat, though a tornado or two will remain possible this evening. ...01z Update... The ongoing linear cluster of storms currently located across eastern OH into central PA have produced numerous reports of hail and damaging winds this evening. Generally, the intensity of these storms has decreased as diurnal heating has waned and storms have moved into a drier environment farther south. A slow weakening trend is expected to continue into the evening as the cold front sags south and the air mass stabilizes. However, MUCAPE around 500 J/kg and moderate deep-layer shear should remain sufficient for damaging gusts and some hail, especially with storms training on the western edge of the ongoing complex. These storms are expected to move south, while weakening, across western/central PA and into northern WV/VA tonight. Given the relatively high observed cloud bases, the tornado risk is appreciably lower, though strong low-level shear may still support a brief spin up with the more organized storms. Storm development will remain possible along western portions of the front and the trailing outflow into central and northeastern OH tonight. However, confidence in storm coverage here is low owing to modest buoyancy and forcing for ascent. Will maintain MRGL/SLGT probabilities here for hail and damaging winds. The main update to the outlook was to remove the Level-3 ENH, and trim higher probabilities from the north and west where the front and convection have moved farther south. ..Lyons.. 04/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OH INTO NORTHERN WESTERN VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms across the upper Ohio Valley into Pennsylvania and vicinity will move southward toward Virginia and the Atlantic Coast tonight, while weakening. Damaging winds and hail should be the main threat, though a tornado or two will remain possible this evening. ...01z Update... The ongoing linear cluster of storms currently located across eastern OH into central PA have produced numerous reports of hail and damaging winds this evening. Generally, the intensity of these storms has decreased as diurnal heating has waned and storms have moved into a drier environment farther south. A slow weakening trend is expected to continue into the evening as the cold front sags south and the air mass stabilizes. However, MUCAPE around 500 J/kg and moderate deep-layer shear should remain sufficient for damaging gusts and some hail, especially with storms training on the western edge of the ongoing complex. These storms are expected to move south, while weakening, across western/central PA and into northern WV/VA tonight. Given the relatively high observed cloud bases, the tornado risk is appreciably lower, though strong low-level shear may still support a brief spin up with the more organized storms. Storm development will remain possible along western portions of the front and the trailing outflow into central and northeastern OH tonight. However, confidence in storm coverage here is low owing to modest buoyancy and forcing for ascent. Will maintain MRGL/SLGT probabilities here for hail and damaging winds. The main update to the outlook was to remove the Level-3 ENH, and trim higher probabilities from the north and west where the front and convection have moved farther south. ..Lyons.. 04/15/2024 Read more

WW 0108 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 108 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW MFD TO 15 SSW FKL TO 25 E DUJ TO 20 WSW IPT TO 25 NW ABE. ..MOORE..04/15/24 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...CTP...BGM... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 108 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC005-013-019-029-031-059-067-075-081-083-099-103-111-117-119- 121-133-139-151-153-157-169-150140- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLAND BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA COSHOCTON GUERNSEY HARRISON HOLMES JEFFERSON KNOX MAHONING MEDINA MONROE MORROW MUSKINGUM NOBLE PORTAGE RICHLAND STARK SUMMIT TUSCARAWAS WAYNE PAC003-005-007-009-013-019-021-027-031-033-051-059-061-063-065- 067-073-087-097-109-111-119-125-129-150140- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG BEAVER BEDFORD BLAIR BUTLER CAMBRIA CENTRE CLARION Read more

WW 0108 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 108 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW MFD TO 15 SSW FKL TO 25 E DUJ TO 20 WSW IPT TO 25 NW ABE. ..MOORE..04/15/24 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...CTP...BGM... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 108 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC005-013-019-029-031-059-067-075-081-083-099-103-111-117-119- 121-133-139-151-153-157-169-150140- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLAND BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA COSHOCTON GUERNSEY HARRISON HOLMES JEFFERSON KNOX MAHONING MEDINA MONROE MORROW MUSKINGUM NOBLE PORTAGE RICHLAND STARK SUMMIT TUSCARAWAS WAYNE PAC003-005-007-009-013-019-021-027-031-033-051-059-061-063-065- 067-073-087-097-109-111-119-125-129-150140- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG BEAVER BEDFORD BLAIR BUTLER CAMBRIA CENTRE CLARION Read more