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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z Modest expansion of the Elevated area was made on account of recent guidance. Locally critical conditions are possible in areas of terrain enhancement in New Mexico. There is also some possibility that elevated fire weather may occur farther east into the Texas Rolling Plains and western Oklahoma. This threat will be dependent on where and how much precipitation falls Monday evening/overnight. For now, highlights will be withheld. ..Wendt.. 04/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... As the upper low ejects eastward over the Plains and into the Midwest, strong flow aloft will gradually weaken from west to east. The associated surface low and trailing front/dryline will move eastward as a secondary cold front moves in from the north. Gusty winds and low humidity will remain possible over parts of the southern and central Plains. However, the duration and coverage of critical conditions is uncertain. ...Southern High Plains to the Texas Big Bend... As the strong upper low lifts away to the northeast early D2/Tuesday, winds aloft will slowly diminish across the southern High Plains through the day. Still, downslope west/northwesterly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-20 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While not overly robust, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS Tuesday afternoon. Gusty winds and lower humidity will remain possible, ahead of the secondary cold front moving south. However, the limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z Modest expansion of the Elevated area was made on account of recent guidance. Locally critical conditions are possible in areas of terrain enhancement in New Mexico. There is also some possibility that elevated fire weather may occur farther east into the Texas Rolling Plains and western Oklahoma. This threat will be dependent on where and how much precipitation falls Monday evening/overnight. For now, highlights will be withheld. ..Wendt.. 04/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... As the upper low ejects eastward over the Plains and into the Midwest, strong flow aloft will gradually weaken from west to east. The associated surface low and trailing front/dryline will move eastward as a secondary cold front moves in from the north. Gusty winds and low humidity will remain possible over parts of the southern and central Plains. However, the duration and coverage of critical conditions is uncertain. ...Southern High Plains to the Texas Big Bend... As the strong upper low lifts away to the northeast early D2/Tuesday, winds aloft will slowly diminish across the southern High Plains through the day. Still, downslope west/northwesterly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-20 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While not overly robust, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS Tuesday afternoon. Gusty winds and lower humidity will remain possible, ahead of the secondary cold front moving south. However, the limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z Modest expansion of the Elevated area was made on account of recent guidance. Locally critical conditions are possible in areas of terrain enhancement in New Mexico. There is also some possibility that elevated fire weather may occur farther east into the Texas Rolling Plains and western Oklahoma. This threat will be dependent on where and how much precipitation falls Monday evening/overnight. For now, highlights will be withheld. ..Wendt.. 04/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... As the upper low ejects eastward over the Plains and into the Midwest, strong flow aloft will gradually weaken from west to east. The associated surface low and trailing front/dryline will move eastward as a secondary cold front moves in from the north. Gusty winds and low humidity will remain possible over parts of the southern and central Plains. However, the duration and coverage of critical conditions is uncertain. ...Southern High Plains to the Texas Big Bend... As the strong upper low lifts away to the northeast early D2/Tuesday, winds aloft will slowly diminish across the southern High Plains through the day. Still, downslope west/northwesterly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-20 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While not overly robust, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS Tuesday afternoon. Gusty winds and lower humidity will remain possible, ahead of the secondary cold front moving south. However, the limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z Modest expansion of the Elevated area was made on account of recent guidance. Locally critical conditions are possible in areas of terrain enhancement in New Mexico. There is also some possibility that elevated fire weather may occur farther east into the Texas Rolling Plains and western Oklahoma. This threat will be dependent on where and how much precipitation falls Monday evening/overnight. For now, highlights will be withheld. ..Wendt.. 04/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... As the upper low ejects eastward over the Plains and into the Midwest, strong flow aloft will gradually weaken from west to east. The associated surface low and trailing front/dryline will move eastward as a secondary cold front moves in from the north. Gusty winds and low humidity will remain possible over parts of the southern and central Plains. However, the duration and coverage of critical conditions is uncertain. ...Southern High Plains to the Texas Big Bend... As the strong upper low lifts away to the northeast early D2/Tuesday, winds aloft will slowly diminish across the southern High Plains through the day. Still, downslope west/northwesterly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-20 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While not overly robust, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS Tuesday afternoon. Gusty winds and lower humidity will remain possible, ahead of the secondary cold front moving south. However, the limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z Modest expansion of the Elevated area was made on account of recent guidance. Locally critical conditions are possible in areas of terrain enhancement in New Mexico. There is also some possibility that elevated fire weather may occur farther east into the Texas Rolling Plains and western Oklahoma. This threat will be dependent on where and how much precipitation falls Monday evening/overnight. For now, highlights will be withheld. ..Wendt.. 04/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... As the upper low ejects eastward over the Plains and into the Midwest, strong flow aloft will gradually weaken from west to east. The associated surface low and trailing front/dryline will move eastward as a secondary cold front moves in from the north. Gusty winds and low humidity will remain possible over parts of the southern and central Plains. However, the duration and coverage of critical conditions is uncertain. ...Southern High Plains to the Texas Big Bend... As the strong upper low lifts away to the northeast early D2/Tuesday, winds aloft will slowly diminish across the southern High Plains through the day. Still, downslope west/northwesterly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-20 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While not overly robust, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS Tuesday afternoon. Gusty winds and lower humidity will remain possible, ahead of the secondary cold front moving south. However, the limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z Modest expansion of the Elevated area was made on account of recent guidance. Locally critical conditions are possible in areas of terrain enhancement in New Mexico. There is also some possibility that elevated fire weather may occur farther east into the Texas Rolling Plains and western Oklahoma. This threat will be dependent on where and how much precipitation falls Monday evening/overnight. For now, highlights will be withheld. ..Wendt.. 04/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... As the upper low ejects eastward over the Plains and into the Midwest, strong flow aloft will gradually weaken from west to east. The associated surface low and trailing front/dryline will move eastward as a secondary cold front moves in from the north. Gusty winds and low humidity will remain possible over parts of the southern and central Plains. However, the duration and coverage of critical conditions is uncertain. ...Southern High Plains to the Texas Big Bend... As the strong upper low lifts away to the northeast early D2/Tuesday, winds aloft will slowly diminish across the southern High Plains through the day. Still, downslope west/northwesterly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-20 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While not overly robust, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS Tuesday afternoon. Gusty winds and lower humidity will remain possible, ahead of the secondary cold front moving south. However, the limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z Modest expansion of the Elevated area was made on account of recent guidance. Locally critical conditions are possible in areas of terrain enhancement in New Mexico. There is also some possibility that elevated fire weather may occur farther east into the Texas Rolling Plains and western Oklahoma. This threat will be dependent on where and how much precipitation falls Monday evening/overnight. For now, highlights will be withheld. ..Wendt.. 04/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... As the upper low ejects eastward over the Plains and into the Midwest, strong flow aloft will gradually weaken from west to east. The associated surface low and trailing front/dryline will move eastward as a secondary cold front moves in from the north. Gusty winds and low humidity will remain possible over parts of the southern and central Plains. However, the duration and coverage of critical conditions is uncertain. ...Southern High Plains to the Texas Big Bend... As the strong upper low lifts away to the northeast early D2/Tuesday, winds aloft will slowly diminish across the southern High Plains through the day. Still, downslope west/northwesterly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-20 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While not overly robust, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS Tuesday afternoon. Gusty winds and lower humidity will remain possible, ahead of the secondary cold front moving south. However, the limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z Modest expansion of the Elevated area was made on account of recent guidance. Locally critical conditions are possible in areas of terrain enhancement in New Mexico. There is also some possibility that elevated fire weather may occur farther east into the Texas Rolling Plains and western Oklahoma. This threat will be dependent on where and how much precipitation falls Monday evening/overnight. For now, highlights will be withheld. ..Wendt.. 04/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... As the upper low ejects eastward over the Plains and into the Midwest, strong flow aloft will gradually weaken from west to east. The associated surface low and trailing front/dryline will move eastward as a secondary cold front moves in from the north. Gusty winds and low humidity will remain possible over parts of the southern and central Plains. However, the duration and coverage of critical conditions is uncertain. ...Southern High Plains to the Texas Big Bend... As the strong upper low lifts away to the northeast early D2/Tuesday, winds aloft will slowly diminish across the southern High Plains through the day. Still, downslope west/northwesterly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-20 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While not overly robust, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS Tuesday afternoon. Gusty winds and lower humidity will remain possible, ahead of the secondary cold front moving south. However, the limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z Modest expansion of the Elevated area was made on account of recent guidance. Locally critical conditions are possible in areas of terrain enhancement in New Mexico. There is also some possibility that elevated fire weather may occur farther east into the Texas Rolling Plains and western Oklahoma. This threat will be dependent on where and how much precipitation falls Monday evening/overnight. For now, highlights will be withheld. ..Wendt.. 04/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... As the upper low ejects eastward over the Plains and into the Midwest, strong flow aloft will gradually weaken from west to east. The associated surface low and trailing front/dryline will move eastward as a secondary cold front moves in from the north. Gusty winds and low humidity will remain possible over parts of the southern and central Plains. However, the duration and coverage of critical conditions is uncertain. ...Southern High Plains to the Texas Big Bend... As the strong upper low lifts away to the northeast early D2/Tuesday, winds aloft will slowly diminish across the southern High Plains through the day. Still, downslope west/northwesterly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-20 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While not overly robust, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS Tuesday afternoon. Gusty winds and lower humidity will remain possible, ahead of the secondary cold front moving south. However, the limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z Modest expansion of the Elevated area was made on account of recent guidance. Locally critical conditions are possible in areas of terrain enhancement in New Mexico. There is also some possibility that elevated fire weather may occur farther east into the Texas Rolling Plains and western Oklahoma. This threat will be dependent on where and how much precipitation falls Monday evening/overnight. For now, highlights will be withheld. ..Wendt.. 04/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... As the upper low ejects eastward over the Plains and into the Midwest, strong flow aloft will gradually weaken from west to east. The associated surface low and trailing front/dryline will move eastward as a secondary cold front moves in from the north. Gusty winds and low humidity will remain possible over parts of the southern and central Plains. However, the duration and coverage of critical conditions is uncertain. ...Southern High Plains to the Texas Big Bend... As the strong upper low lifts away to the northeast early D2/Tuesday, winds aloft will slowly diminish across the southern High Plains through the day. Still, downslope west/northwesterly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-20 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While not overly robust, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS Tuesday afternoon. Gusty winds and lower humidity will remain possible, ahead of the secondary cold front moving south. However, the limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z Modest expansion of the Elevated area was made on account of recent guidance. Locally critical conditions are possible in areas of terrain enhancement in New Mexico. There is also some possibility that elevated fire weather may occur farther east into the Texas Rolling Plains and western Oklahoma. This threat will be dependent on where and how much precipitation falls Monday evening/overnight. For now, highlights will be withheld. ..Wendt.. 04/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... As the upper low ejects eastward over the Plains and into the Midwest, strong flow aloft will gradually weaken from west to east. The associated surface low and trailing front/dryline will move eastward as a secondary cold front moves in from the north. Gusty winds and low humidity will remain possible over parts of the southern and central Plains. However, the duration and coverage of critical conditions is uncertain. ...Southern High Plains to the Texas Big Bend... As the strong upper low lifts away to the northeast early D2/Tuesday, winds aloft will slowly diminish across the southern High Plains through the day. Still, downslope west/northwesterly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-20 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While not overly robust, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS Tuesday afternoon. Gusty winds and lower humidity will remain possible, ahead of the secondary cold front moving south. However, the limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z Modest expansion of the Elevated area was made on account of recent guidance. Locally critical conditions are possible in areas of terrain enhancement in New Mexico. There is also some possibility that elevated fire weather may occur farther east into the Texas Rolling Plains and western Oklahoma. This threat will be dependent on where and how much precipitation falls Monday evening/overnight. For now, highlights will be withheld. ..Wendt.. 04/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... As the upper low ejects eastward over the Plains and into the Midwest, strong flow aloft will gradually weaken from west to east. The associated surface low and trailing front/dryline will move eastward as a secondary cold front moves in from the north. Gusty winds and low humidity will remain possible over parts of the southern and central Plains. However, the duration and coverage of critical conditions is uncertain. ...Southern High Plains to the Texas Big Bend... As the strong upper low lifts away to the northeast early D2/Tuesday, winds aloft will slowly diminish across the southern High Plains through the day. Still, downslope west/northwesterly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-20 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While not overly robust, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS Tuesday afternoon. Gusty winds and lower humidity will remain possible, ahead of the secondary cold front moving south. However, the limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z Modest expansion of the Elevated area was made on account of recent guidance. Locally critical conditions are possible in areas of terrain enhancement in New Mexico. There is also some possibility that elevated fire weather may occur farther east into the Texas Rolling Plains and western Oklahoma. This threat will be dependent on where and how much precipitation falls Monday evening/overnight. For now, highlights will be withheld. ..Wendt.. 04/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... As the upper low ejects eastward over the Plains and into the Midwest, strong flow aloft will gradually weaken from west to east. The associated surface low and trailing front/dryline will move eastward as a secondary cold front moves in from the north. Gusty winds and low humidity will remain possible over parts of the southern and central Plains. However, the duration and coverage of critical conditions is uncertain. ...Southern High Plains to the Texas Big Bend... As the strong upper low lifts away to the northeast early D2/Tuesday, winds aloft will slowly diminish across the southern High Plains through the day. Still, downslope west/northwesterly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-20 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While not overly robust, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS Tuesday afternoon. Gusty winds and lower humidity will remain possible, ahead of the secondary cold front moving south. However, the limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z Modest expansion of the Elevated area was made on account of recent guidance. Locally critical conditions are possible in areas of terrain enhancement in New Mexico. There is also some possibility that elevated fire weather may occur farther east into the Texas Rolling Plains and western Oklahoma. This threat will be dependent on where and how much precipitation falls Monday evening/overnight. For now, highlights will be withheld. ..Wendt.. 04/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... As the upper low ejects eastward over the Plains and into the Midwest, strong flow aloft will gradually weaken from west to east. The associated surface low and trailing front/dryline will move eastward as a secondary cold front moves in from the north. Gusty winds and low humidity will remain possible over parts of the southern and central Plains. However, the duration and coverage of critical conditions is uncertain. ...Southern High Plains to the Texas Big Bend... As the strong upper low lifts away to the northeast early D2/Tuesday, winds aloft will slowly diminish across the southern High Plains through the day. Still, downslope west/northwesterly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-20 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While not overly robust, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS Tuesday afternoon. Gusty winds and lower humidity will remain possible, ahead of the secondary cold front moving south. However, the limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0439 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA...VIRGINIA...MARYLAND...AND DELAWARE
Mesoscale Discussion 0439 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Areas affected...portions of West Virginia...Virginia...Maryland...and Delaware Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 151703Z - 151900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase by 3-4pm EDT. Damaging gusts to 60-70 mph and large hail to 1.5 inches in diameter will be possible through early evening. DISCUSSION...Gradual destabilization is occurring from west to east early this afternoon across the MCD region. Increasing cumulus development is noted over the past hour across the higher terrain of West Virginia into northern Virginia as temperatures have warmed into the 70s to low 80s. The 12z MPAS-HT high-res guidance appears to have the best handle on morning convection across the region, and in the expected convective evolution through early evening. Based on this guidance, and current observed trends, thunderstorm activity is expected to increase by 19-20z/3-4pm EDT near/south of a residual frontal boundary draped west to east across the region. This development will be aided by continued heating/destabilization, increasing midlevel moisture and a very steep low and midlevel lapse rate environment (midlevel lapse rates around 8 C/km with southward extent across VA). While low-level winds will remain light, a belt of 30-40 kt midlevel flow will foster effective shear magnitudes suitable for organized convection. Initial cellular activity will pose a risk for large hail and strong gusts. Meanwhile, a deeply mixed boundary-layer with inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles suggest strong outflow winds will occur with this activity and clustering is likely to occur via outflow interactions. A damaging wind threat will increase with southeastward extent across Virginia toward the Chesapeake Bay vicinity where steep low-level lapse rates and DCAPE over 1000 J/kg will be focused. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed for portions of the MCD vicinity by 18-19z. ..Leitman/Smith.. 04/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 39387892 39417647 39277553 38927496 38717477 38077471 36797576 36617617 36577708 36797916 36977959 37708109 38248124 38618114 38868058 39157996 39387892 Read more

WW 0109 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0109 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0109 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0109 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from Tuesday morning into the evening across a portion of the central states from the Corn Belt to the Ozark Plateau. The most concentrated area of significant severe hail and tornado potential is forecast over southern Iowa into northern Missouri and west-central Illinois. A more isolated severe threat is anticipated across portions of the Mid-Atlantic states. ...Synopsis... A robust upper-level low is evident in mid-morning water-vapor imagery over the Four Corners region. At the surface, pressure falls are ongoing as a lee cyclone begins to consolidate across the High Plains. Over the next 24-48 hours, this surface low is forecast to migrate east towards the MS River Valley, likely reaching northern IA by late afternoon/early evening as it begins to occlude. Thunderstorms will be focused within a preceding warm advection plume, along a leading outflow boundary associated with early-morning convection, and along a trailing cold front. The most intense convection is expected in the vicinity of the surface low along the northern fringe of the warm sector where strong synoptic ascent will overspread a buoyant air mass with favorable low-level wind shear; however, several mesoscale details that will likely determine the overall magnitude of the severe event will be dependent on the intensity/coverage of early-morning convection, which introduces uncertainty into the forecast. ...Corn Belt/Lower MO and Mid-MS Valleys... Latest guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in the potential for ongoing showers and thunderstorms across eastern NE/KS at 12 UTC Tuesday morning. This activity should intensify through the morning across northern MO/central IA amid diurnal heating of a moist, and weakly capped warm sector. While somewhat modest mid-level lapse rates (6-7 C/km) will limit MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg, strong veering flow in the lowest 2 km and 60-70 knot flow aloft may support early supercell development with an attendant tornado/wind threat. Low-level helicity will likely be maximized along the surface warm/occluding front across portions of western IL into IA, and recent CAMs continue to show a strong UH signal across this region. However, this potential will likely be modulated by two factors. The first is the degree of cloud cover/stratiform precipitation on the northern fringe of the warm sector - especially across MO/IA/IL, which may limit the degree of low-level destabilization. The second is storm coverage, which remains very uncertain given high spread in recent CAMs' depiction of convective evolution over the next 24 hours. Greater thunderstorm coverage than currently anticipated at 12 UTC may complicate convective mode later in the day, and the strong synoptic ascent in the vicinity of the surface low, coupled with weak capping, may favor higher convective coverage. If this occurs, northerly storm motions along the primary boundary may favor storm interactions/consolidation into one or more clusters/lines that may favor a severe wind risk over tornado/hail. Regardless, the overall synoptic regime and forecast environment support maintaining the current risk probabilities. The strong effective bulk shear values (60-70 knots) and effective SRH near 250 m2/s2 suggest that significant hail and/or significant tornadoes are possible if a predominantly discrete mode can be realized. Some solutions hint at re-development late afternoon along the cold front across northern MO/southern IA, but confidence in this scenario is low given the high dependence on rapid destabilization after preceding convection. ...OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by late morning within a warm advection regime over the OH River Valley. While buoyancy will be somewhat meager (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE), elongated deep-layer hodographs may support storm longevity as they meander southeast into the Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic region. Surface temperatures warming into the low to mid 80s will steepen low-level lapse rates to near 8 C/km, which may support a few damaging gusts with the stronger cells. ..Moore.. 04/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from Tuesday morning into the evening across a portion of the central states from the Corn Belt to the Ozark Plateau. The most concentrated area of significant severe hail and tornado potential is forecast over southern Iowa into northern Missouri and west-central Illinois. A more isolated severe threat is anticipated across portions of the Mid-Atlantic states. ...Synopsis... A robust upper-level low is evident in mid-morning water-vapor imagery over the Four Corners region. At the surface, pressure falls are ongoing as a lee cyclone begins to consolidate across the High Plains. Over the next 24-48 hours, this surface low is forecast to migrate east towards the MS River Valley, likely reaching northern IA by late afternoon/early evening as it begins to occlude. Thunderstorms will be focused within a preceding warm advection plume, along a leading outflow boundary associated with early-morning convection, and along a trailing cold front. The most intense convection is expected in the vicinity of the surface low along the northern fringe of the warm sector where strong synoptic ascent will overspread a buoyant air mass with favorable low-level wind shear; however, several mesoscale details that will likely determine the overall magnitude of the severe event will be dependent on the intensity/coverage of early-morning convection, which introduces uncertainty into the forecast. ...Corn Belt/Lower MO and Mid-MS Valleys... Latest guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in the potential for ongoing showers and thunderstorms across eastern NE/KS at 12 UTC Tuesday morning. This activity should intensify through the morning across northern MO/central IA amid diurnal heating of a moist, and weakly capped warm sector. While somewhat modest mid-level lapse rates (6-7 C/km) will limit MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg, strong veering flow in the lowest 2 km and 60-70 knot flow aloft may support early supercell development with an attendant tornado/wind threat. Low-level helicity will likely be maximized along the surface warm/occluding front across portions of western IL into IA, and recent CAMs continue to show a strong UH signal across this region. However, this potential will likely be modulated by two factors. The first is the degree of cloud cover/stratiform precipitation on the northern fringe of the warm sector - especially across MO/IA/IL, which may limit the degree of low-level destabilization. The second is storm coverage, which remains very uncertain given high spread in recent CAMs' depiction of convective evolution over the next 24 hours. Greater thunderstorm coverage than currently anticipated at 12 UTC may complicate convective mode later in the day, and the strong synoptic ascent in the vicinity of the surface low, coupled with weak capping, may favor higher convective coverage. If this occurs, northerly storm motions along the primary boundary may favor storm interactions/consolidation into one or more clusters/lines that may favor a severe wind risk over tornado/hail. Regardless, the overall synoptic regime and forecast environment support maintaining the current risk probabilities. The strong effective bulk shear values (60-70 knots) and effective SRH near 250 m2/s2 suggest that significant hail and/or significant tornadoes are possible if a predominantly discrete mode can be realized. Some solutions hint at re-development late afternoon along the cold front across northern MO/southern IA, but confidence in this scenario is low given the high dependence on rapid destabilization after preceding convection. ...OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by late morning within a warm advection regime over the OH River Valley. While buoyancy will be somewhat meager (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE), elongated deep-layer hodographs may support storm longevity as they meander southeast into the Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic region. Surface temperatures warming into the low to mid 80s will steepen low-level lapse rates to near 8 C/km, which may support a few damaging gusts with the stronger cells. ..Moore.. 04/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from Tuesday morning into the evening across a portion of the central states from the Corn Belt to the Ozark Plateau. The most concentrated area of significant severe hail and tornado potential is forecast over southern Iowa into northern Missouri and west-central Illinois. A more isolated severe threat is anticipated across portions of the Mid-Atlantic states. ...Synopsis... A robust upper-level low is evident in mid-morning water-vapor imagery over the Four Corners region. At the surface, pressure falls are ongoing as a lee cyclone begins to consolidate across the High Plains. Over the next 24-48 hours, this surface low is forecast to migrate east towards the MS River Valley, likely reaching northern IA by late afternoon/early evening as it begins to occlude. Thunderstorms will be focused within a preceding warm advection plume, along a leading outflow boundary associated with early-morning convection, and along a trailing cold front. The most intense convection is expected in the vicinity of the surface low along the northern fringe of the warm sector where strong synoptic ascent will overspread a buoyant air mass with favorable low-level wind shear; however, several mesoscale details that will likely determine the overall magnitude of the severe event will be dependent on the intensity/coverage of early-morning convection, which introduces uncertainty into the forecast. ...Corn Belt/Lower MO and Mid-MS Valleys... Latest guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in the potential for ongoing showers and thunderstorms across eastern NE/KS at 12 UTC Tuesday morning. This activity should intensify through the morning across northern MO/central IA amid diurnal heating of a moist, and weakly capped warm sector. While somewhat modest mid-level lapse rates (6-7 C/km) will limit MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg, strong veering flow in the lowest 2 km and 60-70 knot flow aloft may support early supercell development with an attendant tornado/wind threat. Low-level helicity will likely be maximized along the surface warm/occluding front across portions of western IL into IA, and recent CAMs continue to show a strong UH signal across this region. However, this potential will likely be modulated by two factors. The first is the degree of cloud cover/stratiform precipitation on the northern fringe of the warm sector - especially across MO/IA/IL, which may limit the degree of low-level destabilization. The second is storm coverage, which remains very uncertain given high spread in recent CAMs' depiction of convective evolution over the next 24 hours. Greater thunderstorm coverage than currently anticipated at 12 UTC may complicate convective mode later in the day, and the strong synoptic ascent in the vicinity of the surface low, coupled with weak capping, may favor higher convective coverage. If this occurs, northerly storm motions along the primary boundary may favor storm interactions/consolidation into one or more clusters/lines that may favor a severe wind risk over tornado/hail. Regardless, the overall synoptic regime and forecast environment support maintaining the current risk probabilities. The strong effective bulk shear values (60-70 knots) and effective SRH near 250 m2/s2 suggest that significant hail and/or significant tornadoes are possible if a predominantly discrete mode can be realized. Some solutions hint at re-development late afternoon along the cold front across northern MO/southern IA, but confidence in this scenario is low given the high dependence on rapid destabilization after preceding convection. ...OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by late morning within a warm advection regime over the OH River Valley. While buoyancy will be somewhat meager (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE), elongated deep-layer hodographs may support storm longevity as they meander southeast into the Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic region. Surface temperatures warming into the low to mid 80s will steepen low-level lapse rates to near 8 C/km, which may support a few damaging gusts with the stronger cells. ..Moore.. 04/15/2024 Read more