SPC MD 436

1 year 4 months ago
MD 0436 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 108... FOR EASTERN OH INTO MUCH OF PA
Mesoscale Discussion 0436 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0546 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Areas affected...Eastern OH into much of PA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108... Valid 142246Z - 150015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorm wind gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated severe hail remain possible this evening. DISCUSSION...Despite limited low-level moisture, seasonably strong diurnal heating beneath cold temperatures aloft has resulted in the development of extensive deep convection from northeast OH into much of northern PA. The strongest storms are ongoing this evening across western PA, where somewhat more favorable low-level moisture (coincident with a cumulus field across northeast OH) is feeding in from the west. A 68 mph gust at KYNG was noted earlier, and a combination of relatively strong low-level flow and a deep, well-mixed boundary later will continue to support a threat of wind gusts of up to 60-70 mph through early evening. Steep lapse rates will continue to support an isolated hail threat, especially with storms ongoing along the western end of the ongoing QLCS, where somewhat greater instability in place and there will be less of a tendency for storm interference. Some backbuilding into eastern OH will be possible over the next 1-2 hours, before nocturnal cooling/stabilization begins to diminish the threat. Farther east into central/eastern PA, instability is somewhat weaker, but a threat for damaging winds will accompany the strongest storms, especially in areas where stronger heating/mixing occurred earlier today. A gradual weakening trend is expected later this evening, but some threat for localized damaging winds will persist for as long as vigorous convection (and its related outflow) can be sustained as it moves east-southeastward. Depending on convective trends, local extension of WW 108 may be needed, but additional downstream watch issuance currently appears unlikely. ..Dean.. 04/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...PBZ...CLE... LAT...LON 41318148 41117892 41547615 41527572 41217543 40807547 40297815 40257981 40308068 40468149 40618165 41318148 Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108 Status Reports

1 year 4 months ago
WW 0108 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 108 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW MFD TO 10 W YNG TO 5 ESE FKL TO 10 ENE DUJ TO 25 WSW IPT TO 25 S MSV. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0436 ..MOORE..04/14/24 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...CTP...BGM... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 108 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC005-013-019-029-031-059-067-075-081-083-099-103-111-117-119- 121-133-139-151-153-155-157-169-150040- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLAND BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA COSHOCTON GUERNSEY HARRISON HOLMES JEFFERSON KNOX MAHONING MEDINA MONROE MORROW MUSKINGUM NOBLE PORTAGE RICHLAND STARK SUMMIT TRUMBULL TUSCARAWAS WAYNE PAC003-005-007-009-013-019-021-027-031-033-037-051-059-061-063- 065-067-073-079-085-087-093-097-109-111-119-125-129-150040- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG BEAVER Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108

1 year 4 months ago
WW 108 SEVERE TSTM OH PA WV 142055Z - 150300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 108 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 455 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Ohio Western and Northern Pennsylvania Northern West Virginia Panhandle * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 455 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A band of thunderstorms is forecast to develop from eastern Ohio into western and northern Pennsylvania late this afternoon into the evening. The thunderstorms will intensify and the stronger storms will be capable of damaging gusts and large hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles south southwest of Mansfield OH to 10 miles southeast of Wilkesbarre PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Smith Read more

SPC MD 436

1 year 4 months ago
MD 0436 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 108... FOR EASTERN OH INTO MUCH OF PA
Mesoscale Discussion 0436 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0546 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Areas affected...Eastern OH into much of PA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108... Valid 142246Z - 150015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorm wind gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated severe hail remain possible this evening. DISCUSSION...Despite limited low-level moisture, seasonably strong diurnal heating beneath cold temperatures aloft has resulted in the development of extensive deep convection from northeast OH into much of northern PA. The strongest storms are ongoing this evening across western PA, where somewhat more favorable low-level moisture (coincident with a cumulus field across northeast OH) is feeding in from the west. A 68 mph gust at KYNG was noted earlier, and a combination of relatively strong low-level flow and a deep, well-mixed boundary later will continue to support a threat of wind gusts of up to 60-70 mph through early evening. Steep lapse rates will continue to support an isolated hail threat, especially with storms ongoing along the western end of the ongoing QLCS, where somewhat greater instability in place and there will be less of a tendency for storm interference. Some backbuilding into eastern OH will be possible over the next 1-2 hours, before nocturnal cooling/stabilization begins to diminish the threat. Farther east into central/eastern PA, instability is somewhat weaker, but a threat for damaging winds will accompany the strongest storms, especially in areas where stronger heating/mixing occurred earlier today. A gradual weakening trend is expected later this evening, but some threat for localized damaging winds will persist for as long as vigorous convection (and its related outflow) can be sustained as it moves east-southeastward. Depending on convective trends, local extension of WW 108 may be needed, but additional downstream watch issuance currently appears unlikely. ..Dean.. 04/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...PBZ...CLE... LAT...LON 41318148 41117892 41547615 41527572 41217543 40807547 40297815 40257981 40308068 40468149 40618165 41318148 Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108 Status Reports

1 year 4 months ago
WW 0108 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 108 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW MFD TO 15 N YNG TO 15 ESE FKL TO 30 W MSV. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0436 ..MOORE..04/14/24 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...CTP...BGM... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 108 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC005-013-019-029-031-059-067-075-081-083-099-103-111-117-119- 121-133-139-151-153-155-157-169-142340- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLAND BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA COSHOCTON GUERNSEY HARRISON HOLMES JEFFERSON KNOX MAHONING MEDINA MONROE MORROW MUSKINGUM NOBLE PORTAGE RICHLAND STARK SUMMIT TRUMBULL TUSCARAWAS WAYNE PAC003-005-007-009-013-019-021-027-031-033-035-037-051-059-061- 063-065-067-069-073-079-081-085-087-093-097-109-111-113-119-125- 129-131-142340- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108 Status Reports

1 year 4 months ago
WW 0108 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 108 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW MFD TO 25 E BFD TO 25 ESE ELM. ..MOORE..04/14/24 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...CTP...BGM... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 108 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC005-013-019-029-031-059-067-075-081-083-099-103-111-117-119- 121-133-139-151-153-155-157-169-142240- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLAND BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA COSHOCTON GUERNSEY HARRISON HOLMES JEFFERSON KNOX MAHONING MEDINA MONROE MORROW MUSKINGUM NOBLE PORTAGE RICHLAND STARK SUMMIT TRUMBULL TUSCARAWAS WAYNE PAC003-005-007-009-013-019-021-023-027-031-033-035-037-047-051- 053-059-061-063-065-067-069-073-079-081-085-087-093-097-105-109- 111-113-117-119-121-125-129-131-142240- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG BEAVER BEDFORD BLAIR BUTLER Read more

SPC MD 435

1 year 4 months ago
MD 0435 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OHIO INTO PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0435 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Areas affected...portions of central/eastern Ohio into Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 141929Z - 142130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop by 4-5 pm EDT. Damaging gusts and isolated large hail will the the main hazards with this activity as storms track south-southeast through the evening. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely by needed in the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer moisture has gradually increased through the day across the Upper Ohio Valley into northeast PA, with surface dewpoints now in the mid 40s to low 50s F. Strong heating beneath steep lapse rates is supporting weak destabilization. Deepening cumulus has been noted over Lake Erie into western NY the past hour or so, indicating increasing ascent is overspreading the region. The expectation is that this activity will continue to deepen and potentially become more surface-based with time as it shifts southward into OH/PA over the next few hours. Initial cells will likely quickly develop into linear segments given unidirectional flow, which is also parallel to a south/southeastward-advancing surface cold front. Given steep low-level lapse rates and modest boundary-layer moisture, damaging gusts are expected. Furthermore, steep midlevel lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft will support isolated large hail, especially with any convection that remains cellular/semi-discrete. Some improvement of low-level shear is expected with time, resulting in somewhat enlarged low-level hodographs. This may support a tornado or two, but marginal low-level moisture will limit the overall tornado risk. ..Leitman/Smith.. 04/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... LAT...LON 40768277 41258110 41947686 42107557 41887519 41547500 41027539 40697604 40377712 39857919 39768057 39748213 39978271 40358292 40638290 40768277 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z A potent shortwave trough in the central Plains will be in the process of lifting northeastward and weakening on Tuesday/Wednesday. Another broad trough will move through the northern Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast through the remainder of the week. Flow aloft within the southern half of the CONUS will generally become more zonal with time. Models suggest a more amplified pattern may develop by next weekend. At the surface, the initial trough/surface cyclone will push a relatively weak cold front through parts of the southern Plains late Tuesday into Wednesday. A secondary push of cooler air is possible late next week with some suggestion that the front will reach the Gulf during the weekend. ...Southern High Plains... Fire weather concerns will continue into Tuesday on the back side of the initial trough/surface cyclone. Winds will tend to weaken during the day as the cyclone moves farther north and east. A few hours of elevated to locally critical fire weather is possible. Some fire weather concerns are also possible on Wednesday as a weak lee cyclone develops within the zonal flow regime across the Divide. The most likely area for low-end concerns would be northeastern New Mexico. Given the weaker synoptic features, potential for critical fire weather is too low for highlights. ..Wendt.. 04/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z A potent shortwave trough in the central Plains will be in the process of lifting northeastward and weakening on Tuesday/Wednesday. Another broad trough will move through the northern Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast through the remainder of the week. Flow aloft within the southern half of the CONUS will generally become more zonal with time. Models suggest a more amplified pattern may develop by next weekend. At the surface, the initial trough/surface cyclone will push a relatively weak cold front through parts of the southern Plains late Tuesday into Wednesday. A secondary push of cooler air is possible late next week with some suggestion that the front will reach the Gulf during the weekend. ...Southern High Plains... Fire weather concerns will continue into Tuesday on the back side of the initial trough/surface cyclone. Winds will tend to weaken during the day as the cyclone moves farther north and east. A few hours of elevated to locally critical fire weather is possible. Some fire weather concerns are also possible on Wednesday as a weak lee cyclone develops within the zonal flow regime across the Divide. The most likely area for low-end concerns would be northeastern New Mexico. Given the weaker synoptic features, potential for critical fire weather is too low for highlights. ..Wendt.. 04/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z A potent shortwave trough in the central Plains will be in the process of lifting northeastward and weakening on Tuesday/Wednesday. Another broad trough will move through the northern Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast through the remainder of the week. Flow aloft within the southern half of the CONUS will generally become more zonal with time. Models suggest a more amplified pattern may develop by next weekend. At the surface, the initial trough/surface cyclone will push a relatively weak cold front through parts of the southern Plains late Tuesday into Wednesday. A secondary push of cooler air is possible late next week with some suggestion that the front will reach the Gulf during the weekend. ...Southern High Plains... Fire weather concerns will continue into Tuesday on the back side of the initial trough/surface cyclone. Winds will tend to weaken during the day as the cyclone moves farther north and east. A few hours of elevated to locally critical fire weather is possible. Some fire weather concerns are also possible on Wednesday as a weak lee cyclone develops within the zonal flow regime across the Divide. The most likely area for low-end concerns would be northeastern New Mexico. Given the weaker synoptic features, potential for critical fire weather is too low for highlights. ..Wendt.. 04/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z A potent shortwave trough in the central Plains will be in the process of lifting northeastward and weakening on Tuesday/Wednesday. Another broad trough will move through the northern Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast through the remainder of the week. Flow aloft within the southern half of the CONUS will generally become more zonal with time. Models suggest a more amplified pattern may develop by next weekend. At the surface, the initial trough/surface cyclone will push a relatively weak cold front through parts of the southern Plains late Tuesday into Wednesday. A secondary push of cooler air is possible late next week with some suggestion that the front will reach the Gulf during the weekend. ...Southern High Plains... Fire weather concerns will continue into Tuesday on the back side of the initial trough/surface cyclone. Winds will tend to weaken during the day as the cyclone moves farther north and east. A few hours of elevated to locally critical fire weather is possible. Some fire weather concerns are also possible on Wednesday as a weak lee cyclone develops within the zonal flow regime across the Divide. The most likely area for low-end concerns would be northeastern New Mexico. Given the weaker synoptic features, potential for critical fire weather is too low for highlights. ..Wendt.. 04/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z A potent shortwave trough in the central Plains will be in the process of lifting northeastward and weakening on Tuesday/Wednesday. Another broad trough will move through the northern Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast through the remainder of the week. Flow aloft within the southern half of the CONUS will generally become more zonal with time. Models suggest a more amplified pattern may develop by next weekend. At the surface, the initial trough/surface cyclone will push a relatively weak cold front through parts of the southern Plains late Tuesday into Wednesday. A secondary push of cooler air is possible late next week with some suggestion that the front will reach the Gulf during the weekend. ...Southern High Plains... Fire weather concerns will continue into Tuesday on the back side of the initial trough/surface cyclone. Winds will tend to weaken during the day as the cyclone moves farther north and east. A few hours of elevated to locally critical fire weather is possible. Some fire weather concerns are also possible on Wednesday as a weak lee cyclone develops within the zonal flow regime across the Divide. The most likely area for low-end concerns would be northeastern New Mexico. Given the weaker synoptic features, potential for critical fire weather is too low for highlights. ..Wendt.. 04/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z A potent shortwave trough in the central Plains will be in the process of lifting northeastward and weakening on Tuesday/Wednesday. Another broad trough will move through the northern Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast through the remainder of the week. Flow aloft within the southern half of the CONUS will generally become more zonal with time. Models suggest a more amplified pattern may develop by next weekend. At the surface, the initial trough/surface cyclone will push a relatively weak cold front through parts of the southern Plains late Tuesday into Wednesday. A secondary push of cooler air is possible late next week with some suggestion that the front will reach the Gulf during the weekend. ...Southern High Plains... Fire weather concerns will continue into Tuesday on the back side of the initial trough/surface cyclone. Winds will tend to weaken during the day as the cyclone moves farther north and east. A few hours of elevated to locally critical fire weather is possible. Some fire weather concerns are also possible on Wednesday as a weak lee cyclone develops within the zonal flow regime across the Divide. The most likely area for low-end concerns would be northeastern New Mexico. Given the weaker synoptic features, potential for critical fire weather is too low for highlights. ..Wendt.. 04/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z A potent shortwave trough in the central Plains will be in the process of lifting northeastward and weakening on Tuesday/Wednesday. Another broad trough will move through the northern Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast through the remainder of the week. Flow aloft within the southern half of the CONUS will generally become more zonal with time. Models suggest a more amplified pattern may develop by next weekend. At the surface, the initial trough/surface cyclone will push a relatively weak cold front through parts of the southern Plains late Tuesday into Wednesday. A secondary push of cooler air is possible late next week with some suggestion that the front will reach the Gulf during the weekend. ...Southern High Plains... Fire weather concerns will continue into Tuesday on the back side of the initial trough/surface cyclone. Winds will tend to weaken during the day as the cyclone moves farther north and east. A few hours of elevated to locally critical fire weather is possible. Some fire weather concerns are also possible on Wednesday as a weak lee cyclone develops within the zonal flow regime across the Divide. The most likely area for low-end concerns would be northeastern New Mexico. Given the weaker synoptic features, potential for critical fire weather is too low for highlights. ..Wendt.. 04/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z A potent shortwave trough in the central Plains will be in the process of lifting northeastward and weakening on Tuesday/Wednesday. Another broad trough will move through the northern Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast through the remainder of the week. Flow aloft within the southern half of the CONUS will generally become more zonal with time. Models suggest a more amplified pattern may develop by next weekend. At the surface, the initial trough/surface cyclone will push a relatively weak cold front through parts of the southern Plains late Tuesday into Wednesday. A secondary push of cooler air is possible late next week with some suggestion that the front will reach the Gulf during the weekend. ...Southern High Plains... Fire weather concerns will continue into Tuesday on the back side of the initial trough/surface cyclone. Winds will tend to weaken during the day as the cyclone moves farther north and east. A few hours of elevated to locally critical fire weather is possible. Some fire weather concerns are also possible on Wednesday as a weak lee cyclone develops within the zonal flow regime across the Divide. The most likely area for low-end concerns would be northeastern New Mexico. Given the weaker synoptic features, potential for critical fire weather is too low for highlights. ..Wendt.. 04/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z A potent shortwave trough in the central Plains will be in the process of lifting northeastward and weakening on Tuesday/Wednesday. Another broad trough will move through the northern Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast through the remainder of the week. Flow aloft within the southern half of the CONUS will generally become more zonal with time. Models suggest a more amplified pattern may develop by next weekend. At the surface, the initial trough/surface cyclone will push a relatively weak cold front through parts of the southern Plains late Tuesday into Wednesday. A secondary push of cooler air is possible late next week with some suggestion that the front will reach the Gulf during the weekend. ...Southern High Plains... Fire weather concerns will continue into Tuesday on the back side of the initial trough/surface cyclone. Winds will tend to weaken during the day as the cyclone moves farther north and east. A few hours of elevated to locally critical fire weather is possible. Some fire weather concerns are also possible on Wednesday as a weak lee cyclone develops within the zonal flow regime across the Divide. The most likely area for low-end concerns would be northeastern New Mexico. Given the weaker synoptic features, potential for critical fire weather is too low for highlights. ..Wendt.. 04/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 4 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z A potent shortwave trough in the central Plains will be in the process of lifting northeastward and weakening on Tuesday/Wednesday. Another broad trough will move through the northern Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast through the remainder of the week. Flow aloft within the southern half of the CONUS will generally become more zonal with time. Models suggest a more amplified pattern may develop by next weekend. At the surface, the initial trough/surface cyclone will push a relatively weak cold front through parts of the southern Plains late Tuesday into Wednesday. A secondary push of cooler air is possible late next week with some suggestion that the front will reach the Gulf during the weekend. ...Southern High Plains... Fire weather concerns will continue into Tuesday on the back side of the initial trough/surface cyclone. Winds will tend to weaken during the day as the cyclone moves farther north and east. A few hours of elevated to locally critical fire weather is possible. Some fire weather concerns are also possible on Wednesday as a weak lee cyclone develops within the zonal flow regime across the Divide. The most likely area for low-end concerns would be northeastern New Mexico. Given the weaker synoptic features, potential for critical fire weather is too low for highlights. ..Wendt.. 04/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more