Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Wednesday... Guidance continues to suggest some severe threat will persist into Wednesday afternoon given the strength of low to mid-level flow before the Upper MS Valley surface cyclone further occludes and dampens over the western to central Great Lakes. The northeast lobe of the warm-moist sector emanating from the western Gulf should be more confined relative to D3/Tuesday. Thus, have only delineated a small 15 percent highlight where consensus of guidance suggests the best potential for daytime destabilization will overlap with the stronger low to deep-layer flow. Low severe probabilities are evident surrounding the highlight, both farther south-southwestward in the TN Valley/Mid-South and northeastward deeper into IN/OH. ...D5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A broad mid/upper trough is still advertised to become established over the Upper Midwest by about D5, with predictability waning in its evolution into next weekend. This should yield surface high pressure/ridging being periodically reinforced from at least the northern High Plains into the central Great Plains. Within the predominantly westerly mid-level flow regime across the rich warm-moist sector, an elevated mixed layer should support at least moderate buoyancy over parts of the TX/OK/AR/LA region. The quasi-stationary baroclinic zone should eventually be pushed south towards the northwest Gulf around next weekend. This overall setup may support daily bouts of low-probability severe. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Wednesday... Guidance continues to suggest some severe threat will persist into Wednesday afternoon given the strength of low to mid-level flow before the Upper MS Valley surface cyclone further occludes and dampens over the western to central Great Lakes. The northeast lobe of the warm-moist sector emanating from the western Gulf should be more confined relative to D3/Tuesday. Thus, have only delineated a small 15 percent highlight where consensus of guidance suggests the best potential for daytime destabilization will overlap with the stronger low to deep-layer flow. Low severe probabilities are evident surrounding the highlight, both farther south-southwestward in the TN Valley/Mid-South and northeastward deeper into IN/OH. ...D5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A broad mid/upper trough is still advertised to become established over the Upper Midwest by about D5, with predictability waning in its evolution into next weekend. This should yield surface high pressure/ridging being periodically reinforced from at least the northern High Plains into the central Great Plains. Within the predominantly westerly mid-level flow regime across the rich warm-moist sector, an elevated mixed layer should support at least moderate buoyancy over parts of the TX/OK/AR/LA region. The quasi-stationary baroclinic zone should eventually be pushed south towards the northwest Gulf around next weekend. This overall setup may support daily bouts of low-probability severe. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Wednesday... Guidance continues to suggest some severe threat will persist into Wednesday afternoon given the strength of low to mid-level flow before the Upper MS Valley surface cyclone further occludes and dampens over the western to central Great Lakes. The northeast lobe of the warm-moist sector emanating from the western Gulf should be more confined relative to D3/Tuesday. Thus, have only delineated a small 15 percent highlight where consensus of guidance suggests the best potential for daytime destabilization will overlap with the stronger low to deep-layer flow. Low severe probabilities are evident surrounding the highlight, both farther south-southwestward in the TN Valley/Mid-South and northeastward deeper into IN/OH. ...D5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A broad mid/upper trough is still advertised to become established over the Upper Midwest by about D5, with predictability waning in its evolution into next weekend. This should yield surface high pressure/ridging being periodically reinforced from at least the northern High Plains into the central Great Plains. Within the predominantly westerly mid-level flow regime across the rich warm-moist sector, an elevated mixed layer should support at least moderate buoyancy over parts of the TX/OK/AR/LA region. The quasi-stationary baroclinic zone should eventually be pushed south towards the northwest Gulf around next weekend. This overall setup may support daily bouts of low-probability severe. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Wednesday... Guidance continues to suggest some severe threat will persist into Wednesday afternoon given the strength of low to mid-level flow before the Upper MS Valley surface cyclone further occludes and dampens over the western to central Great Lakes. The northeast lobe of the warm-moist sector emanating from the western Gulf should be more confined relative to D3/Tuesday. Thus, have only delineated a small 15 percent highlight where consensus of guidance suggests the best potential for daytime destabilization will overlap with the stronger low to deep-layer flow. Low severe probabilities are evident surrounding the highlight, both farther south-southwestward in the TN Valley/Mid-South and northeastward deeper into IN/OH. ...D5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A broad mid/upper trough is still advertised to become established over the Upper Midwest by about D5, with predictability waning in its evolution into next weekend. This should yield surface high pressure/ridging being periodically reinforced from at least the northern High Plains into the central Great Plains. Within the predominantly westerly mid-level flow regime across the rich warm-moist sector, an elevated mixed layer should support at least moderate buoyancy over parts of the TX/OK/AR/LA region. The quasi-stationary baroclinic zone should eventually be pushed south towards the northwest Gulf around next weekend. This overall setup may support daily bouts of low-probability severe. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Wednesday... Guidance continues to suggest some severe threat will persist into Wednesday afternoon given the strength of low to mid-level flow before the Upper MS Valley surface cyclone further occludes and dampens over the western to central Great Lakes. The northeast lobe of the warm-moist sector emanating from the western Gulf should be more confined relative to D3/Tuesday. Thus, have only delineated a small 15 percent highlight where consensus of guidance suggests the best potential for daytime destabilization will overlap with the stronger low to deep-layer flow. Low severe probabilities are evident surrounding the highlight, both farther south-southwestward in the TN Valley/Mid-South and northeastward deeper into IN/OH. ...D5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A broad mid/upper trough is still advertised to become established over the Upper Midwest by about D5, with predictability waning in its evolution into next weekend. This should yield surface high pressure/ridging being periodically reinforced from at least the northern High Plains into the central Great Plains. Within the predominantly westerly mid-level flow regime across the rich warm-moist sector, an elevated mixed layer should support at least moderate buoyancy over parts of the TX/OK/AR/LA region. The quasi-stationary baroclinic zone should eventually be pushed south towards the northwest Gulf around next weekend. This overall setup may support daily bouts of low-probability severe. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN IA AND NORTHERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely on Tuesday into Tuesday night across a portion of the central states from the Corn Belt to the Ark-La-Tex. The most concentrated corridor of significant severe hail and tornadoes is forecast over southern Iowa into northern Missouri from mid-afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep surface cyclone should be located near the central KS/NE border area Tuesday morning. This cyclone should gradually progress east-northeast across the Mid-MO Valley before beginning to weaken over IA early Wednesday. An initially intense mid-level jetlet (in excess of 80 kts) should become centered from the Ozark Plateau into northeast MO by afternoon, before weakening as it shifts east across the Mid-MS to Lower OH Valleys. The initially north/south-oriented cold front to the south of the surface cyclone will progress into the Mid-MS Valley by 12Z Wednesday, with its trailing portion slowing and then stalling near the Ark-La-Tex. ...Corn Belt/Lower MO and Mid-MS Valleys... Within the left-exit region of the aforementioned mid-level jet, a synoptically favorable corridor for mid-afternoon to early evening supercells is evident. Pronounced boundary-layer heating is expected west of the Pacific cold front that will effectively function as more of a dryline. There is moderate uncertainty over the degree of heating ahead of it, in the wake of early-day convection. But with a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates attendant to the shortwave trough overspreading the northwest portion of the surface warm/moist sector during the afternoon, moderate buoyancy should develop. This coupled with backed low-level flow and veering of the wind profile with height should support supercells capable of producing significant severe hail and tornadoes. How long and far east-southeast this threat will last into the evening will likely be modulated by the degree of afternoon boundary-layer heating that can occur. ...Ark-La-Tex/Mid-South... Deep-layer shear profiles will be strong and another day of boundary-layer moistening from the western Gulf should yield a broadening corridor of severe potential that may linger through much of the period. As the surface front stalls, it appears that low-level warm theta-e advection coupled with outflows from early-day convection will serve as the foci for regenerative storm development. A mix of all hazards appears possible, with at least a SLGT-risk worthy tornado threat. Parts of this region may warrant higher severe probabilities in later outlooks as mesoscale convective details become more clear. ..Grams.. 04/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN IA AND NORTHERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely on Tuesday into Tuesday night across a portion of the central states from the Corn Belt to the Ark-La-Tex. The most concentrated corridor of significant severe hail and tornadoes is forecast over southern Iowa into northern Missouri from mid-afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep surface cyclone should be located near the central KS/NE border area Tuesday morning. This cyclone should gradually progress east-northeast across the Mid-MO Valley before beginning to weaken over IA early Wednesday. An initially intense mid-level jetlet (in excess of 80 kts) should become centered from the Ozark Plateau into northeast MO by afternoon, before weakening as it shifts east across the Mid-MS to Lower OH Valleys. The initially north/south-oriented cold front to the south of the surface cyclone will progress into the Mid-MS Valley by 12Z Wednesday, with its trailing portion slowing and then stalling near the Ark-La-Tex. ...Corn Belt/Lower MO and Mid-MS Valleys... Within the left-exit region of the aforementioned mid-level jet, a synoptically favorable corridor for mid-afternoon to early evening supercells is evident. Pronounced boundary-layer heating is expected west of the Pacific cold front that will effectively function as more of a dryline. There is moderate uncertainty over the degree of heating ahead of it, in the wake of early-day convection. But with a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates attendant to the shortwave trough overspreading the northwest portion of the surface warm/moist sector during the afternoon, moderate buoyancy should develop. This coupled with backed low-level flow and veering of the wind profile with height should support supercells capable of producing significant severe hail and tornadoes. How long and far east-southeast this threat will last into the evening will likely be modulated by the degree of afternoon boundary-layer heating that can occur. ...Ark-La-Tex/Mid-South... Deep-layer shear profiles will be strong and another day of boundary-layer moistening from the western Gulf should yield a broadening corridor of severe potential that may linger through much of the period. As the surface front stalls, it appears that low-level warm theta-e advection coupled with outflows from early-day convection will serve as the foci for regenerative storm development. A mix of all hazards appears possible, with at least a SLGT-risk worthy tornado threat. Parts of this region may warrant higher severe probabilities in later outlooks as mesoscale convective details become more clear. ..Grams.. 04/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN IA AND NORTHERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely on Tuesday into Tuesday night across a portion of the central states from the Corn Belt to the Ark-La-Tex. The most concentrated corridor of significant severe hail and tornadoes is forecast over southern Iowa into northern Missouri from mid-afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep surface cyclone should be located near the central KS/NE border area Tuesday morning. This cyclone should gradually progress east-northeast across the Mid-MO Valley before beginning to weaken over IA early Wednesday. An initially intense mid-level jetlet (in excess of 80 kts) should become centered from the Ozark Plateau into northeast MO by afternoon, before weakening as it shifts east across the Mid-MS to Lower OH Valleys. The initially north/south-oriented cold front to the south of the surface cyclone will progress into the Mid-MS Valley by 12Z Wednesday, with its trailing portion slowing and then stalling near the Ark-La-Tex. ...Corn Belt/Lower MO and Mid-MS Valleys... Within the left-exit region of the aforementioned mid-level jet, a synoptically favorable corridor for mid-afternoon to early evening supercells is evident. Pronounced boundary-layer heating is expected west of the Pacific cold front that will effectively function as more of a dryline. There is moderate uncertainty over the degree of heating ahead of it, in the wake of early-day convection. But with a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates attendant to the shortwave trough overspreading the northwest portion of the surface warm/moist sector during the afternoon, moderate buoyancy should develop. This coupled with backed low-level flow and veering of the wind profile with height should support supercells capable of producing significant severe hail and tornadoes. How long and far east-southeast this threat will last into the evening will likely be modulated by the degree of afternoon boundary-layer heating that can occur. ...Ark-La-Tex/Mid-South... Deep-layer shear profiles will be strong and another day of boundary-layer moistening from the western Gulf should yield a broadening corridor of severe potential that may linger through much of the period. As the surface front stalls, it appears that low-level warm theta-e advection coupled with outflows from early-day convection will serve as the foci for regenerative storm development. A mix of all hazards appears possible, with at least a SLGT-risk worthy tornado threat. Parts of this region may warrant higher severe probabilities in later outlooks as mesoscale convective details become more clear. ..Grams.. 04/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN IA AND NORTHERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely on Tuesday into Tuesday night across a portion of the central states from the Corn Belt to the Ark-La-Tex. The most concentrated corridor of significant severe hail and tornadoes is forecast over southern Iowa into northern Missouri from mid-afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep surface cyclone should be located near the central KS/NE border area Tuesday morning. This cyclone should gradually progress east-northeast across the Mid-MO Valley before beginning to weaken over IA early Wednesday. An initially intense mid-level jetlet (in excess of 80 kts) should become centered from the Ozark Plateau into northeast MO by afternoon, before weakening as it shifts east across the Mid-MS to Lower OH Valleys. The initially north/south-oriented cold front to the south of the surface cyclone will progress into the Mid-MS Valley by 12Z Wednesday, with its trailing portion slowing and then stalling near the Ark-La-Tex. ...Corn Belt/Lower MO and Mid-MS Valleys... Within the left-exit region of the aforementioned mid-level jet, a synoptically favorable corridor for mid-afternoon to early evening supercells is evident. Pronounced boundary-layer heating is expected west of the Pacific cold front that will effectively function as more of a dryline. There is moderate uncertainty over the degree of heating ahead of it, in the wake of early-day convection. But with a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates attendant to the shortwave trough overspreading the northwest portion of the surface warm/moist sector during the afternoon, moderate buoyancy should develop. This coupled with backed low-level flow and veering of the wind profile with height should support supercells capable of producing significant severe hail and tornadoes. How long and far east-southeast this threat will last into the evening will likely be modulated by the degree of afternoon boundary-layer heating that can occur. ...Ark-La-Tex/Mid-South... Deep-layer shear profiles will be strong and another day of boundary-layer moistening from the western Gulf should yield a broadening corridor of severe potential that may linger through much of the period. As the surface front stalls, it appears that low-level warm theta-e advection coupled with outflows from early-day convection will serve as the foci for regenerative storm development. A mix of all hazards appears possible, with at least a SLGT-risk worthy tornado threat. Parts of this region may warrant higher severe probabilities in later outlooks as mesoscale convective details become more clear. ..Grams.. 04/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN IA AND NORTHERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely on Tuesday into Tuesday night across a portion of the central states from the Corn Belt to the Ark-La-Tex. The most concentrated corridor of significant severe hail and tornadoes is forecast over southern Iowa into northern Missouri from mid-afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep surface cyclone should be located near the central KS/NE border area Tuesday morning. This cyclone should gradually progress east-northeast across the Mid-MO Valley before beginning to weaken over IA early Wednesday. An initially intense mid-level jetlet (in excess of 80 kts) should become centered from the Ozark Plateau into northeast MO by afternoon, before weakening as it shifts east across the Mid-MS to Lower OH Valleys. The initially north/south-oriented cold front to the south of the surface cyclone will progress into the Mid-MS Valley by 12Z Wednesday, with its trailing portion slowing and then stalling near the Ark-La-Tex. ...Corn Belt/Lower MO and Mid-MS Valleys... Within the left-exit region of the aforementioned mid-level jet, a synoptically favorable corridor for mid-afternoon to early evening supercells is evident. Pronounced boundary-layer heating is expected west of the Pacific cold front that will effectively function as more of a dryline. There is moderate uncertainty over the degree of heating ahead of it, in the wake of early-day convection. But with a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates attendant to the shortwave trough overspreading the northwest portion of the surface warm/moist sector during the afternoon, moderate buoyancy should develop. This coupled with backed low-level flow and veering of the wind profile with height should support supercells capable of producing significant severe hail and tornadoes. How long and far east-southeast this threat will last into the evening will likely be modulated by the degree of afternoon boundary-layer heating that can occur. ...Ark-La-Tex/Mid-South... Deep-layer shear profiles will be strong and another day of boundary-layer moistening from the western Gulf should yield a broadening corridor of severe potential that may linger through much of the period. As the surface front stalls, it appears that low-level warm theta-e advection coupled with outflows from early-day convection will serve as the foci for regenerative storm development. A mix of all hazards appears possible, with at least a SLGT-risk worthy tornado threat. Parts of this region may warrant higher severe probabilities in later outlooks as mesoscale convective details become more clear. ..Grams.. 04/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN IA AND NORTHERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely on Tuesday into Tuesday night across a portion of the central states from the Corn Belt to the Ark-La-Tex. The most concentrated corridor of significant severe hail and tornadoes is forecast over southern Iowa into northern Missouri from mid-afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep surface cyclone should be located near the central KS/NE border area Tuesday morning. This cyclone should gradually progress east-northeast across the Mid-MO Valley before beginning to weaken over IA early Wednesday. An initially intense mid-level jetlet (in excess of 80 kts) should become centered from the Ozark Plateau into northeast MO by afternoon, before weakening as it shifts east across the Mid-MS to Lower OH Valleys. The initially north/south-oriented cold front to the south of the surface cyclone will progress into the Mid-MS Valley by 12Z Wednesday, with its trailing portion slowing and then stalling near the Ark-La-Tex. ...Corn Belt/Lower MO and Mid-MS Valleys... Within the left-exit region of the aforementioned mid-level jet, a synoptically favorable corridor for mid-afternoon to early evening supercells is evident. Pronounced boundary-layer heating is expected west of the Pacific cold front that will effectively function as more of a dryline. There is moderate uncertainty over the degree of heating ahead of it, in the wake of early-day convection. But with a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates attendant to the shortwave trough overspreading the northwest portion of the surface warm/moist sector during the afternoon, moderate buoyancy should develop. This coupled with backed low-level flow and veering of the wind profile with height should support supercells capable of producing significant severe hail and tornadoes. How long and far east-southeast this threat will last into the evening will likely be modulated by the degree of afternoon boundary-layer heating that can occur. ...Ark-La-Tex/Mid-South... Deep-layer shear profiles will be strong and another day of boundary-layer moistening from the western Gulf should yield a broadening corridor of severe potential that may linger through much of the period. As the surface front stalls, it appears that low-level warm theta-e advection coupled with outflows from early-day convection will serve as the foci for regenerative storm development. A mix of all hazards appears possible, with at least a SLGT-risk worthy tornado threat. Parts of this region may warrant higher severe probabilities in later outlooks as mesoscale convective details become more clear. ..Grams.. 04/14/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.... ...Synopsis... An upper low and strong jet streak are forecast to intensify and eject eastward over the southern and central Rockies D2/Monday. As large-scale ascent from the approaching upper low and jet streak move over the Plains, a lee low should quickly emerge and begin to rapidly deepen over central High Plains. Surface pressure falls and the strong flow aloft will aid in developing strong surface winds over much of the Plains. Hot and dry surface conditions atop drying fuels will set the stage for widespread critical and localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions D2/Monday. ...High Plains... As the main upper low phases with the subtropical jet, 70+ kt mid-level flow will shift eastward and cross the Rockies. The rapidly deepening lee low will force strong west/southwest flow downslope over the High Plains behind a dryline forecast to mix near 100 degrees west. Sustained surface winds of 25-40 mph are possible behind the dryline given the strong pressure falls and enhanced momentum transfer from increasing flow aloft. Minimum RH values are also expected to be critically low, falling to near 10% over much of the High Plains. Widespread dry and receptive fuels, combined with strong wind gusts and very dry surface conditions, will support ubiquitous critical fire-weather concerns from eastern CO and western KS, into parts of the Panhandles, and eastern NM/west TX. Localized extremely critical conditions also appear possible as strong winds continue to increase into the late afternoon and evening hours. The most likely corridor for localized extreme conditions will exist from southeastern CO into parts of western KS and the northwestern Panhandles. Here, the overlap of the strongest flow aloft and the low-level thermal ridge may support occasional surface wind gusts in excess of 50 mph and single digit RH for a few hours during the afternoon. While critical fire-weather concerns are likely over a broad area, substantial uncertainty is present with the eastward extent of fire-weather concerns. NWP guidance, with relation to the position of the dryline, has shown large errors in recent weeks and spread among various solutions remains large. Further refinement of the eastern edge of the Elevated and Critical areas is likely needed in future outlooks. ..Lyons.. 04/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.... ...Synopsis... An upper low and strong jet streak are forecast to intensify and eject eastward over the southern and central Rockies D2/Monday. As large-scale ascent from the approaching upper low and jet streak move over the Plains, a lee low should quickly emerge and begin to rapidly deepen over central High Plains. Surface pressure falls and the strong flow aloft will aid in developing strong surface winds over much of the Plains. Hot and dry surface conditions atop drying fuels will set the stage for widespread critical and localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions D2/Monday. ...High Plains... As the main upper low phases with the subtropical jet, 70+ kt mid-level flow will shift eastward and cross the Rockies. The rapidly deepening lee low will force strong west/southwest flow downslope over the High Plains behind a dryline forecast to mix near 100 degrees west. Sustained surface winds of 25-40 mph are possible behind the dryline given the strong pressure falls and enhanced momentum transfer from increasing flow aloft. Minimum RH values are also expected to be critically low, falling to near 10% over much of the High Plains. Widespread dry and receptive fuels, combined with strong wind gusts and very dry surface conditions, will support ubiquitous critical fire-weather concerns from eastern CO and western KS, into parts of the Panhandles, and eastern NM/west TX. Localized extremely critical conditions also appear possible as strong winds continue to increase into the late afternoon and evening hours. The most likely corridor for localized extreme conditions will exist from southeastern CO into parts of western KS and the northwestern Panhandles. Here, the overlap of the strongest flow aloft and the low-level thermal ridge may support occasional surface wind gusts in excess of 50 mph and single digit RH for a few hours during the afternoon. While critical fire-weather concerns are likely over a broad area, substantial uncertainty is present with the eastward extent of fire-weather concerns. NWP guidance, with relation to the position of the dryline, has shown large errors in recent weeks and spread among various solutions remains large. Further refinement of the eastern edge of the Elevated and Critical areas is likely needed in future outlooks. ..Lyons.. 04/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.... ...Synopsis... An upper low and strong jet streak are forecast to intensify and eject eastward over the southern and central Rockies D2/Monday. As large-scale ascent from the approaching upper low and jet streak move over the Plains, a lee low should quickly emerge and begin to rapidly deepen over central High Plains. Surface pressure falls and the strong flow aloft will aid in developing strong surface winds over much of the Plains. Hot and dry surface conditions atop drying fuels will set the stage for widespread critical and localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions D2/Monday. ...High Plains... As the main upper low phases with the subtropical jet, 70+ kt mid-level flow will shift eastward and cross the Rockies. The rapidly deepening lee low will force strong west/southwest flow downslope over the High Plains behind a dryline forecast to mix near 100 degrees west. Sustained surface winds of 25-40 mph are possible behind the dryline given the strong pressure falls and enhanced momentum transfer from increasing flow aloft. Minimum RH values are also expected to be critically low, falling to near 10% over much of the High Plains. Widespread dry and receptive fuels, combined with strong wind gusts and very dry surface conditions, will support ubiquitous critical fire-weather concerns from eastern CO and western KS, into parts of the Panhandles, and eastern NM/west TX. Localized extremely critical conditions also appear possible as strong winds continue to increase into the late afternoon and evening hours. The most likely corridor for localized extreme conditions will exist from southeastern CO into parts of western KS and the northwestern Panhandles. Here, the overlap of the strongest flow aloft and the low-level thermal ridge may support occasional surface wind gusts in excess of 50 mph and single digit RH for a few hours during the afternoon. While critical fire-weather concerns are likely over a broad area, substantial uncertainty is present with the eastward extent of fire-weather concerns. NWP guidance, with relation to the position of the dryline, has shown large errors in recent weeks and spread among various solutions remains large. Further refinement of the eastern edge of the Elevated and Critical areas is likely needed in future outlooks. ..Lyons.. 04/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.... ...Synopsis... An upper low and strong jet streak are forecast to intensify and eject eastward over the southern and central Rockies D2/Monday. As large-scale ascent from the approaching upper low and jet streak move over the Plains, a lee low should quickly emerge and begin to rapidly deepen over central High Plains. Surface pressure falls and the strong flow aloft will aid in developing strong surface winds over much of the Plains. Hot and dry surface conditions atop drying fuels will set the stage for widespread critical and localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions D2/Monday. ...High Plains... As the main upper low phases with the subtropical jet, 70+ kt mid-level flow will shift eastward and cross the Rockies. The rapidly deepening lee low will force strong west/southwest flow downslope over the High Plains behind a dryline forecast to mix near 100 degrees west. Sustained surface winds of 25-40 mph are possible behind the dryline given the strong pressure falls and enhanced momentum transfer from increasing flow aloft. Minimum RH values are also expected to be critically low, falling to near 10% over much of the High Plains. Widespread dry and receptive fuels, combined with strong wind gusts and very dry surface conditions, will support ubiquitous critical fire-weather concerns from eastern CO and western KS, into parts of the Panhandles, and eastern NM/west TX. Localized extremely critical conditions also appear possible as strong winds continue to increase into the late afternoon and evening hours. The most likely corridor for localized extreme conditions will exist from southeastern CO into parts of western KS and the northwestern Panhandles. Here, the overlap of the strongest flow aloft and the low-level thermal ridge may support occasional surface wind gusts in excess of 50 mph and single digit RH for a few hours during the afternoon. While critical fire-weather concerns are likely over a broad area, substantial uncertainty is present with the eastward extent of fire-weather concerns. NWP guidance, with relation to the position of the dryline, has shown large errors in recent weeks and spread among various solutions remains large. Further refinement of the eastern edge of the Elevated and Critical areas is likely needed in future outlooks. ..Lyons.. 04/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.... ...Synopsis... An upper low and strong jet streak are forecast to intensify and eject eastward over the southern and central Rockies D2/Monday. As large-scale ascent from the approaching upper low and jet streak move over the Plains, a lee low should quickly emerge and begin to rapidly deepen over central High Plains. Surface pressure falls and the strong flow aloft will aid in developing strong surface winds over much of the Plains. Hot and dry surface conditions atop drying fuels will set the stage for widespread critical and localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions D2/Monday. ...High Plains... As the main upper low phases with the subtropical jet, 70+ kt mid-level flow will shift eastward and cross the Rockies. The rapidly deepening lee low will force strong west/southwest flow downslope over the High Plains behind a dryline forecast to mix near 100 degrees west. Sustained surface winds of 25-40 mph are possible behind the dryline given the strong pressure falls and enhanced momentum transfer from increasing flow aloft. Minimum RH values are also expected to be critically low, falling to near 10% over much of the High Plains. Widespread dry and receptive fuels, combined with strong wind gusts and very dry surface conditions, will support ubiquitous critical fire-weather concerns from eastern CO and western KS, into parts of the Panhandles, and eastern NM/west TX. Localized extremely critical conditions also appear possible as strong winds continue to increase into the late afternoon and evening hours. The most likely corridor for localized extreme conditions will exist from southeastern CO into parts of western KS and the northwestern Panhandles. Here, the overlap of the strongest flow aloft and the low-level thermal ridge may support occasional surface wind gusts in excess of 50 mph and single digit RH for a few hours during the afternoon. While critical fire-weather concerns are likely over a broad area, substantial uncertainty is present with the eastward extent of fire-weather concerns. NWP guidance, with relation to the position of the dryline, has shown large errors in recent weeks and spread among various solutions remains large. Further refinement of the eastern edge of the Elevated and Critical areas is likely needed in future outlooks. ..Lyons.. 04/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.... ...Synopsis... An upper low and strong jet streak are forecast to intensify and eject eastward over the southern and central Rockies D2/Monday. As large-scale ascent from the approaching upper low and jet streak move over the Plains, a lee low should quickly emerge and begin to rapidly deepen over central High Plains. Surface pressure falls and the strong flow aloft will aid in developing strong surface winds over much of the Plains. Hot and dry surface conditions atop drying fuels will set the stage for widespread critical and localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions D2/Monday. ...High Plains... As the main upper low phases with the subtropical jet, 70+ kt mid-level flow will shift eastward and cross the Rockies. The rapidly deepening lee low will force strong west/southwest flow downslope over the High Plains behind a dryline forecast to mix near 100 degrees west. Sustained surface winds of 25-40 mph are possible behind the dryline given the strong pressure falls and enhanced momentum transfer from increasing flow aloft. Minimum RH values are also expected to be critically low, falling to near 10% over much of the High Plains. Widespread dry and receptive fuels, combined with strong wind gusts and very dry surface conditions, will support ubiquitous critical fire-weather concerns from eastern CO and western KS, into parts of the Panhandles, and eastern NM/west TX. Localized extremely critical conditions also appear possible as strong winds continue to increase into the late afternoon and evening hours. The most likely corridor for localized extreme conditions will exist from southeastern CO into parts of western KS and the northwestern Panhandles. Here, the overlap of the strongest flow aloft and the low-level thermal ridge may support occasional surface wind gusts in excess of 50 mph and single digit RH for a few hours during the afternoon. While critical fire-weather concerns are likely over a broad area, substantial uncertainty is present with the eastward extent of fire-weather concerns. NWP guidance, with relation to the position of the dryline, has shown large errors in recent weeks and spread among various solutions remains large. Further refinement of the eastern edge of the Elevated and Critical areas is likely needed in future outlooks. ..Lyons.. 04/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper-level cyclone is forecast to intensify and slowly drift southeastward into the Great Basin Today. To the south, strong mid-level flow from an enhanced subtropical jet will move into the Desert Southwest. As strong wind fields overspread the western CONUS, lee cyclogenesis is forecast to begin over the central Rockies. Strong surface wind fields over the Intermountain west will slowly move into the southern High Plains behind the lee trough. Low humidity and increasing winds will likely support elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... As the upper low consolidates over the western CONUS, strong flow aloft will begin to overspread the southern Rockies and High Plains. The lee trough is forecast to slowly deepen into a surface low over northeastern CO by late in the afternoon. With the deepening lee trough and increasing flow aloft, gusty southwest surface winds of 15-20 mph are likely over parts of southeastern NM into west/Southwest TX. Warm temperatures and deep mixing behind the lee trough should also encourage dry surface conditions with diurnal RH minimums below 15%. With area fuels receptive to fire spread a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. More localized fire-weather conditions are possible farther north into southern CO. However, flow aloft will be somewhat delayed here keeping gusty winds more localized. ..Lyons.. 04/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper-level cyclone is forecast to intensify and slowly drift southeastward into the Great Basin Today. To the south, strong mid-level flow from an enhanced subtropical jet will move into the Desert Southwest. As strong wind fields overspread the western CONUS, lee cyclogenesis is forecast to begin over the central Rockies. Strong surface wind fields over the Intermountain west will slowly move into the southern High Plains behind the lee trough. Low humidity and increasing winds will likely support elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... As the upper low consolidates over the western CONUS, strong flow aloft will begin to overspread the southern Rockies and High Plains. The lee trough is forecast to slowly deepen into a surface low over northeastern CO by late in the afternoon. With the deepening lee trough and increasing flow aloft, gusty southwest surface winds of 15-20 mph are likely over parts of southeastern NM into west/Southwest TX. Warm temperatures and deep mixing behind the lee trough should also encourage dry surface conditions with diurnal RH minimums below 15%. With area fuels receptive to fire spread a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. More localized fire-weather conditions are possible farther north into southern CO. However, flow aloft will be somewhat delayed here keeping gusty winds more localized. ..Lyons.. 04/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper-level cyclone is forecast to intensify and slowly drift southeastward into the Great Basin Today. To the south, strong mid-level flow from an enhanced subtropical jet will move into the Desert Southwest. As strong wind fields overspread the western CONUS, lee cyclogenesis is forecast to begin over the central Rockies. Strong surface wind fields over the Intermountain west will slowly move into the southern High Plains behind the lee trough. Low humidity and increasing winds will likely support elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... As the upper low consolidates over the western CONUS, strong flow aloft will begin to overspread the southern Rockies and High Plains. The lee trough is forecast to slowly deepen into a surface low over northeastern CO by late in the afternoon. With the deepening lee trough and increasing flow aloft, gusty southwest surface winds of 15-20 mph are likely over parts of southeastern NM into west/Southwest TX. Warm temperatures and deep mixing behind the lee trough should also encourage dry surface conditions with diurnal RH minimums below 15%. With area fuels receptive to fire spread a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. More localized fire-weather conditions are possible farther north into southern CO. However, flow aloft will be somewhat delayed here keeping gusty winds more localized. ..Lyons.. 04/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more