Aggregator

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A northern-stream midlevel shortwave trough will cross the northern Plains during the afternoon, while a related surface cyclone tracks northeastward from SD across northwestern MN. Along/east of the surface cyclone, a tightening pressure gradient, coupled with shallow boundary-layer mixing into a southerly low-level jet, will yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) across portions of northeastern NE, eastern SD, far northwest IA, and western MN. While RH reductions will be limited, owing to slightly cool surface temperatures (especially with northward extent), high-resolution ensemble guidance suggests that 25-30 percent minimum RH is possible. As a result, an elevated wind-driven fire-weather risk is expected, given modestly receptive fuels across the region. Farther south, midlevel west-southwesterly flow will strengthen across the southern Rockies -- ahead of midlevel trough/low moving ashore over southern CA. In response, weak lee cyclogenesis is expected over eastern CO, favoring 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across the southern High Plains. Here, downslope warming/drying will contribute to 15 percent minimum RH, leading to elevated/locally critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 03/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A northern-stream midlevel shortwave trough will cross the northern Plains during the afternoon, while a related surface cyclone tracks northeastward from SD across northwestern MN. Along/east of the surface cyclone, a tightening pressure gradient, coupled with shallow boundary-layer mixing into a southerly low-level jet, will yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) across portions of northeastern NE, eastern SD, far northwest IA, and western MN. While RH reductions will be limited, owing to slightly cool surface temperatures (especially with northward extent), high-resolution ensemble guidance suggests that 25-30 percent minimum RH is possible. As a result, an elevated wind-driven fire-weather risk is expected, given modestly receptive fuels across the region. Farther south, midlevel west-southwesterly flow will strengthen across the southern Rockies -- ahead of midlevel trough/low moving ashore over southern CA. In response, weak lee cyclogenesis is expected over eastern CO, favoring 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across the southern High Plains. Here, downslope warming/drying will contribute to 15 percent minimum RH, leading to elevated/locally critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 03/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A northern-stream midlevel shortwave trough will cross the northern Plains during the afternoon, while a related surface cyclone tracks northeastward from SD across northwestern MN. Along/east of the surface cyclone, a tightening pressure gradient, coupled with shallow boundary-layer mixing into a southerly low-level jet, will yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) across portions of northeastern NE, eastern SD, far northwest IA, and western MN. While RH reductions will be limited, owing to slightly cool surface temperatures (especially with northward extent), high-resolution ensemble guidance suggests that 25-30 percent minimum RH is possible. As a result, an elevated wind-driven fire-weather risk is expected, given modestly receptive fuels across the region. Farther south, midlevel west-southwesterly flow will strengthen across the southern Rockies -- ahead of midlevel trough/low moving ashore over southern CA. In response, weak lee cyclogenesis is expected over eastern CO, favoring 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across the southern High Plains. Here, downslope warming/drying will contribute to 15 percent minimum RH, leading to elevated/locally critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 03/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A northern-stream midlevel shortwave trough will cross the northern Plains during the afternoon, while a related surface cyclone tracks northeastward from SD across northwestern MN. Along/east of the surface cyclone, a tightening pressure gradient, coupled with shallow boundary-layer mixing into a southerly low-level jet, will yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) across portions of northeastern NE, eastern SD, far northwest IA, and western MN. While RH reductions will be limited, owing to slightly cool surface temperatures (especially with northward extent), high-resolution ensemble guidance suggests that 25-30 percent minimum RH is possible. As a result, an elevated wind-driven fire-weather risk is expected, given modestly receptive fuels across the region. Farther south, midlevel west-southwesterly flow will strengthen across the southern Rockies -- ahead of midlevel trough/low moving ashore over southern CA. In response, weak lee cyclogenesis is expected over eastern CO, favoring 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across the southern High Plains. Here, downslope warming/drying will contribute to 15 percent minimum RH, leading to elevated/locally critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 03/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A northern-stream midlevel shortwave trough will cross the northern Plains during the afternoon, while a related surface cyclone tracks northeastward from SD across northwestern MN. Along/east of the surface cyclone, a tightening pressure gradient, coupled with shallow boundary-layer mixing into a southerly low-level jet, will yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) across portions of northeastern NE, eastern SD, far northwest IA, and western MN. While RH reductions will be limited, owing to slightly cool surface temperatures (especially with northward extent), high-resolution ensemble guidance suggests that 25-30 percent minimum RH is possible. As a result, an elevated wind-driven fire-weather risk is expected, given modestly receptive fuels across the region. Farther south, midlevel west-southwesterly flow will strengthen across the southern Rockies -- ahead of midlevel trough/low moving ashore over southern CA. In response, weak lee cyclogenesis is expected over eastern CO, favoring 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across the southern High Plains. Here, downslope warming/drying will contribute to 15 percent minimum RH, leading to elevated/locally critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 03/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A northern-stream midlevel shortwave trough will cross the northern Plains during the afternoon, while a related surface cyclone tracks northeastward from SD across northwestern MN. Along/east of the surface cyclone, a tightening pressure gradient, coupled with shallow boundary-layer mixing into a southerly low-level jet, will yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) across portions of northeastern NE, eastern SD, far northwest IA, and western MN. While RH reductions will be limited, owing to slightly cool surface temperatures (especially with northward extent), high-resolution ensemble guidance suggests that 25-30 percent minimum RH is possible. As a result, an elevated wind-driven fire-weather risk is expected, given modestly receptive fuels across the region. Farther south, midlevel west-southwesterly flow will strengthen across the southern Rockies -- ahead of midlevel trough/low moving ashore over southern CA. In response, weak lee cyclogenesis is expected over eastern CO, favoring 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across the southern High Plains. Here, downslope warming/drying will contribute to 15 percent minimum RH, leading to elevated/locally critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 03/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... Embedded within a belt of strong midlevel westerly flow, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will track eastward across parts of SD and NE early in the period. At the same time, an attendant weak surface cyclone will move eastward across SD. Along the southern periphery of this feature, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will yield 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) across parts of northern NE and southern SD. While these winds will peak in the morning, they will likely overlap diurnally decreasing afternoon RH values of 15-20 percent for a couple hours. Given receptive fuels across the area, a brief period of elevated fire-weather conditions is expected. Farther south, moderate downslope flow off the southern Rockies will favor 15 percent afternoon RH across the southern High Plains. However, surface winds should remain too weak for an appreciable fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 03/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... Embedded within a belt of strong midlevel westerly flow, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will track eastward across parts of SD and NE early in the period. At the same time, an attendant weak surface cyclone will move eastward across SD. Along the southern periphery of this feature, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will yield 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) across parts of northern NE and southern SD. While these winds will peak in the morning, they will likely overlap diurnally decreasing afternoon RH values of 15-20 percent for a couple hours. Given receptive fuels across the area, a brief period of elevated fire-weather conditions is expected. Farther south, moderate downslope flow off the southern Rockies will favor 15 percent afternoon RH across the southern High Plains. However, surface winds should remain too weak for an appreciable fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 03/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... Embedded within a belt of strong midlevel westerly flow, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will track eastward across parts of SD and NE early in the period. At the same time, an attendant weak surface cyclone will move eastward across SD. Along the southern periphery of this feature, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will yield 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) across parts of northern NE and southern SD. While these winds will peak in the morning, they will likely overlap diurnally decreasing afternoon RH values of 15-20 percent for a couple hours. Given receptive fuels across the area, a brief period of elevated fire-weather conditions is expected. Farther south, moderate downslope flow off the southern Rockies will favor 15 percent afternoon RH across the southern High Plains. However, surface winds should remain too weak for an appreciable fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 03/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... Embedded within a belt of strong midlevel westerly flow, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will track eastward across parts of SD and NE early in the period. At the same time, an attendant weak surface cyclone will move eastward across SD. Along the southern periphery of this feature, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will yield 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) across parts of northern NE and southern SD. While these winds will peak in the morning, they will likely overlap diurnally decreasing afternoon RH values of 15-20 percent for a couple hours. Given receptive fuels across the area, a brief period of elevated fire-weather conditions is expected. Farther south, moderate downslope flow off the southern Rockies will favor 15 percent afternoon RH across the southern High Plains. However, surface winds should remain too weak for an appreciable fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 03/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... Embedded within a belt of strong midlevel westerly flow, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will track eastward across parts of SD and NE early in the period. At the same time, an attendant weak surface cyclone will move eastward across SD. Along the southern periphery of this feature, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will yield 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) across parts of northern NE and southern SD. While these winds will peak in the morning, they will likely overlap diurnally decreasing afternoon RH values of 15-20 percent for a couple hours. Given receptive fuels across the area, a brief period of elevated fire-weather conditions is expected. Farther south, moderate downslope flow off the southern Rockies will favor 15 percent afternoon RH across the southern High Plains. However, surface winds should remain too weak for an appreciable fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 03/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... Embedded within a belt of strong midlevel westerly flow, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will track eastward across parts of SD and NE early in the period. At the same time, an attendant weak surface cyclone will move eastward across SD. Along the southern periphery of this feature, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will yield 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) across parts of northern NE and southern SD. While these winds will peak in the morning, they will likely overlap diurnally decreasing afternoon RH values of 15-20 percent for a couple hours. Given receptive fuels across the area, a brief period of elevated fire-weather conditions is expected. Farther south, moderate downslope flow off the southern Rockies will favor 15 percent afternoon RH across the southern High Plains. However, surface winds should remain too weak for an appreciable fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 03/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... Embedded within a belt of strong midlevel westerly flow, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will track eastward across parts of SD and NE early in the period. At the same time, an attendant weak surface cyclone will move eastward across SD. Along the southern periphery of this feature, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will yield 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) across parts of northern NE and southern SD. While these winds will peak in the morning, they will likely overlap diurnally decreasing afternoon RH values of 15-20 percent for a couple hours. Given receptive fuels across the area, a brief period of elevated fire-weather conditions is expected. Farther south, moderate downslope flow off the southern Rockies will favor 15 percent afternoon RH across the southern High Plains. However, surface winds should remain too weak for an appreciable fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 03/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across parts of the Florida Peninsula and the southern Plains. Occasional large hail and gusty winds should be the main threats with this activity. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move northeastward across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. A related, weak surface low is likewise forecast to develop northeastward from GA/SC into NC and southern VA through Wednesday evening. A moist low-level airmass will be in place across these areas ahead of a cold front. Still, greater instability (and isolated severe potential) is generally expected to remain over parts of FL, and offshore over the warmer Gulf Stream waters. Separate areas of thunderstorms may occur through the period across parts of coastal southern CA as an upper trough/low with associated cold mid-level temperatures moves eastward, and across parts of the Great Basin. Weak forecast instability over these regions should limit any appreciable severe threat. ...Central/South Florida... Cool temperatures at mid levels (500 mb temperatures around -10 to -12C) should aid in weak to moderate instability developing across parts of the FL Peninsula through Wednesday afternoon, although the potential for ongoing morning convection may hinder daytime heating to some extent. Still, ascent associated with the upper trough, and a related mid/upper-level jet, should help sustain thunderstorms moving eastward from the eastern Gulf across the FL Peninsula through the morning and perhaps early afternoon. Even though deep-layer shear may only strengthen to around 25-35 kt, somewhat elongated/straight hodographs at mid/upper levels may support an isolated hail threat with any of the stronger cores that can persist. Occasional damaging winds also appear possible with convective downdrafts as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen with daytime heating. The potential for redevelopment behind early-day convection appears rather uncertain/conditional, as the better forcing attendant to the upper trough should be moving northeastward and away from the FL Peninsula by Wednesday afternoon. ...Southern/Central Plains... Modest low-level moisture should advance northward across parts of the southern/central Plains through the period as weak cyclogenesis occurs over the southern High Plains. Even though large-scale ascent should remain modest beneath a strong southern-stream mid/ upper-level jet, some guidance suggests that robust convection may develop by late Wednesday afternoon across parts of north-central TX in the vicinity of a weak front/dryline intersection. Around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear in combination with steepened low/mid-level lapse rates and at least weak instability should support some updraft organization if convection can initiate. Isolated large hail appears possible with the stronger cores, along with occasional severe winds. Have included a Marginal Risk across parts of north-central TX to account for this potential, although the overall threat remains somewhat conditional given nebulous large-scale forcing. Generally elevated convection may also occur across a broader part of the southern/central Plains Wednesday night into early Thursday morning as a southerly low-level jet strengthens across these regions. This activity should remain sub-severe, although small hail appears possible. ..Gleason.. 03/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across parts of the Florida Peninsula and the southern Plains. Occasional large hail and gusty winds should be the main threats with this activity. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move northeastward across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. A related, weak surface low is likewise forecast to develop northeastward from GA/SC into NC and southern VA through Wednesday evening. A moist low-level airmass will be in place across these areas ahead of a cold front. Still, greater instability (and isolated severe potential) is generally expected to remain over parts of FL, and offshore over the warmer Gulf Stream waters. Separate areas of thunderstorms may occur through the period across parts of coastal southern CA as an upper trough/low with associated cold mid-level temperatures moves eastward, and across parts of the Great Basin. Weak forecast instability over these regions should limit any appreciable severe threat. ...Central/South Florida... Cool temperatures at mid levels (500 mb temperatures around -10 to -12C) should aid in weak to moderate instability developing across parts of the FL Peninsula through Wednesday afternoon, although the potential for ongoing morning convection may hinder daytime heating to some extent. Still, ascent associated with the upper trough, and a related mid/upper-level jet, should help sustain thunderstorms moving eastward from the eastern Gulf across the FL Peninsula through the morning and perhaps early afternoon. Even though deep-layer shear may only strengthen to around 25-35 kt, somewhat elongated/straight hodographs at mid/upper levels may support an isolated hail threat with any of the stronger cores that can persist. Occasional damaging winds also appear possible with convective downdrafts as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen with daytime heating. The potential for redevelopment behind early-day convection appears rather uncertain/conditional, as the better forcing attendant to the upper trough should be moving northeastward and away from the FL Peninsula by Wednesday afternoon. ...Southern/Central Plains... Modest low-level moisture should advance northward across parts of the southern/central Plains through the period as weak cyclogenesis occurs over the southern High Plains. Even though large-scale ascent should remain modest beneath a strong southern-stream mid/ upper-level jet, some guidance suggests that robust convection may develop by late Wednesday afternoon across parts of north-central TX in the vicinity of a weak front/dryline intersection. Around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear in combination with steepened low/mid-level lapse rates and at least weak instability should support some updraft organization if convection can initiate. Isolated large hail appears possible with the stronger cores, along with occasional severe winds. Have included a Marginal Risk across parts of north-central TX to account for this potential, although the overall threat remains somewhat conditional given nebulous large-scale forcing. Generally elevated convection may also occur across a broader part of the southern/central Plains Wednesday night into early Thursday morning as a southerly low-level jet strengthens across these regions. This activity should remain sub-severe, although small hail appears possible. ..Gleason.. 03/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across parts of the Florida Peninsula and the southern Plains. Occasional large hail and gusty winds should be the main threats with this activity. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move northeastward across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. A related, weak surface low is likewise forecast to develop northeastward from GA/SC into NC and southern VA through Wednesday evening. A moist low-level airmass will be in place across these areas ahead of a cold front. Still, greater instability (and isolated severe potential) is generally expected to remain over parts of FL, and offshore over the warmer Gulf Stream waters. Separate areas of thunderstorms may occur through the period across parts of coastal southern CA as an upper trough/low with associated cold mid-level temperatures moves eastward, and across parts of the Great Basin. Weak forecast instability over these regions should limit any appreciable severe threat. ...Central/South Florida... Cool temperatures at mid levels (500 mb temperatures around -10 to -12C) should aid in weak to moderate instability developing across parts of the FL Peninsula through Wednesday afternoon, although the potential for ongoing morning convection may hinder daytime heating to some extent. Still, ascent associated with the upper trough, and a related mid/upper-level jet, should help sustain thunderstorms moving eastward from the eastern Gulf across the FL Peninsula through the morning and perhaps early afternoon. Even though deep-layer shear may only strengthen to around 25-35 kt, somewhat elongated/straight hodographs at mid/upper levels may support an isolated hail threat with any of the stronger cores that can persist. Occasional damaging winds also appear possible with convective downdrafts as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen with daytime heating. The potential for redevelopment behind early-day convection appears rather uncertain/conditional, as the better forcing attendant to the upper trough should be moving northeastward and away from the FL Peninsula by Wednesday afternoon. ...Southern/Central Plains... Modest low-level moisture should advance northward across parts of the southern/central Plains through the period as weak cyclogenesis occurs over the southern High Plains. Even though large-scale ascent should remain modest beneath a strong southern-stream mid/ upper-level jet, some guidance suggests that robust convection may develop by late Wednesday afternoon across parts of north-central TX in the vicinity of a weak front/dryline intersection. Around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear in combination with steepened low/mid-level lapse rates and at least weak instability should support some updraft organization if convection can initiate. Isolated large hail appears possible with the stronger cores, along with occasional severe winds. Have included a Marginal Risk across parts of north-central TX to account for this potential, although the overall threat remains somewhat conditional given nebulous large-scale forcing. Generally elevated convection may also occur across a broader part of the southern/central Plains Wednesday night into early Thursday morning as a southerly low-level jet strengthens across these regions. This activity should remain sub-severe, although small hail appears possible. ..Gleason.. 03/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across parts of the Florida Peninsula and the southern Plains. Occasional large hail and gusty winds should be the main threats with this activity. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move northeastward across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. A related, weak surface low is likewise forecast to develop northeastward from GA/SC into NC and southern VA through Wednesday evening. A moist low-level airmass will be in place across these areas ahead of a cold front. Still, greater instability (and isolated severe potential) is generally expected to remain over parts of FL, and offshore over the warmer Gulf Stream waters. Separate areas of thunderstorms may occur through the period across parts of coastal southern CA as an upper trough/low with associated cold mid-level temperatures moves eastward, and across parts of the Great Basin. Weak forecast instability over these regions should limit any appreciable severe threat. ...Central/South Florida... Cool temperatures at mid levels (500 mb temperatures around -10 to -12C) should aid in weak to moderate instability developing across parts of the FL Peninsula through Wednesday afternoon, although the potential for ongoing morning convection may hinder daytime heating to some extent. Still, ascent associated with the upper trough, and a related mid/upper-level jet, should help sustain thunderstorms moving eastward from the eastern Gulf across the FL Peninsula through the morning and perhaps early afternoon. Even though deep-layer shear may only strengthen to around 25-35 kt, somewhat elongated/straight hodographs at mid/upper levels may support an isolated hail threat with any of the stronger cores that can persist. Occasional damaging winds also appear possible with convective downdrafts as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen with daytime heating. The potential for redevelopment behind early-day convection appears rather uncertain/conditional, as the better forcing attendant to the upper trough should be moving northeastward and away from the FL Peninsula by Wednesday afternoon. ...Southern/Central Plains... Modest low-level moisture should advance northward across parts of the southern/central Plains through the period as weak cyclogenesis occurs over the southern High Plains. Even though large-scale ascent should remain modest beneath a strong southern-stream mid/ upper-level jet, some guidance suggests that robust convection may develop by late Wednesday afternoon across parts of north-central TX in the vicinity of a weak front/dryline intersection. Around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear in combination with steepened low/mid-level lapse rates and at least weak instability should support some updraft organization if convection can initiate. Isolated large hail appears possible with the stronger cores, along with occasional severe winds. Have included a Marginal Risk across parts of north-central TX to account for this potential, although the overall threat remains somewhat conditional given nebulous large-scale forcing. Generally elevated convection may also occur across a broader part of the southern/central Plains Wednesday night into early Thursday morning as a southerly low-level jet strengthens across these regions. This activity should remain sub-severe, although small hail appears possible. ..Gleason.. 03/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across parts of the Florida Peninsula and the southern Plains. Occasional large hail and gusty winds should be the main threats with this activity. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move northeastward across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. A related, weak surface low is likewise forecast to develop northeastward from GA/SC into NC and southern VA through Wednesday evening. A moist low-level airmass will be in place across these areas ahead of a cold front. Still, greater instability (and isolated severe potential) is generally expected to remain over parts of FL, and offshore over the warmer Gulf Stream waters. Separate areas of thunderstorms may occur through the period across parts of coastal southern CA as an upper trough/low with associated cold mid-level temperatures moves eastward, and across parts of the Great Basin. Weak forecast instability over these regions should limit any appreciable severe threat. ...Central/South Florida... Cool temperatures at mid levels (500 mb temperatures around -10 to -12C) should aid in weak to moderate instability developing across parts of the FL Peninsula through Wednesday afternoon, although the potential for ongoing morning convection may hinder daytime heating to some extent. Still, ascent associated with the upper trough, and a related mid/upper-level jet, should help sustain thunderstorms moving eastward from the eastern Gulf across the FL Peninsula through the morning and perhaps early afternoon. Even though deep-layer shear may only strengthen to around 25-35 kt, somewhat elongated/straight hodographs at mid/upper levels may support an isolated hail threat with any of the stronger cores that can persist. Occasional damaging winds also appear possible with convective downdrafts as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen with daytime heating. The potential for redevelopment behind early-day convection appears rather uncertain/conditional, as the better forcing attendant to the upper trough should be moving northeastward and away from the FL Peninsula by Wednesday afternoon. ...Southern/Central Plains... Modest low-level moisture should advance northward across parts of the southern/central Plains through the period as weak cyclogenesis occurs over the southern High Plains. Even though large-scale ascent should remain modest beneath a strong southern-stream mid/ upper-level jet, some guidance suggests that robust convection may develop by late Wednesday afternoon across parts of north-central TX in the vicinity of a weak front/dryline intersection. Around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear in combination with steepened low/mid-level lapse rates and at least weak instability should support some updraft organization if convection can initiate. Isolated large hail appears possible with the stronger cores, along with occasional severe winds. Have included a Marginal Risk across parts of north-central TX to account for this potential, although the overall threat remains somewhat conditional given nebulous large-scale forcing. Generally elevated convection may also occur across a broader part of the southern/central Plains Wednesday night into early Thursday morning as a southerly low-level jet strengthens across these regions. This activity should remain sub-severe, although small hail appears possible. ..Gleason.. 03/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TX/OK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible through the day across parts of east Texas/Oklahoma into the lower Mississippi Valley. Hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...East TX/OK into the lower MS Valley... Convection will likely be ongoing during the morning somewhere from east TX into the ArkLaTex region, though uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of this convection during the overnight hours prior to the start of the forecast period. In general, one or more clusters may develop and move southeastward through the morning. Modest but sufficient deep-layer shear could support some storm organization, though instability may remain limited near the lower MS Valley due to the influence of extensive convection on Monday, and increasing overnight convection over the Gulf of Mexico. Some threat for damaging gusts and perhaps some hail could accompany the morning storms if organized convection can be sustained. Most guidance suggests severe potential will wane across the region in the wake of the morning convection. However, depending on the strength and extent of convective outflow, moderate destabilization may be possible during the afternoon from east TX/OK into portions of AR/LA. While large-scale ascent will be weak in the wake of a shortwave trough associated with the morning convection, isolated redevelopment cannot be ruled out along any remnant outflow boundary. Should this occur, MLCAPE potentially in excess of 1500 J/kg and modest deep-layer shear could be sufficient to support an isolated hail and damaging wind threat with any sustained afternoon/evening storms. ...Florida... Most guidance suggests that an MCS will develop over the Gulf of Mexico and move eastward through the day. Guidance also suggests that the MCS (or its remnant) will not reach the FL Peninsula until later in the evening, though there is some potential it will progress eastward faster than expected. In advance of the MCS, isolated to widely scattered storm development will be possible over the Peninsula as low-level moisture gradually increases. With instability expected to remain rather weak, severe potential appears relatively limited with both the MCS and any earlier convection. However, with modestly favorable low-level and deep-layer shear potentially overspreading parts of the Peninsula, the severe potential will continue to be monitored in subsequent outlooks. ...OH Valley into the lower Great Lakes... Scattered convection will be possible through the day from parts of the OH Valley into the lower Great Lakes, in association with a cold front. Large-scale ascent and deep-layer flow/shear is expected to be rather weak, since the region is located between a departing northern-stream shortwave trough, and the southern-stream system affecting the Gulf Coast states. Modest preconvective heating and cool temperatures aloft could support gusty winds and small hail with the strongest storms, though the organized severe-thunderstorm threat appears limited. ..Dean/Weinman.. 03/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TX/OK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible through the day across parts of east Texas/Oklahoma into the lower Mississippi Valley. Hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...East TX/OK into the lower MS Valley... Convection will likely be ongoing during the morning somewhere from east TX into the ArkLaTex region, though uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of this convection during the overnight hours prior to the start of the forecast period. In general, one or more clusters may develop and move southeastward through the morning. Modest but sufficient deep-layer shear could support some storm organization, though instability may remain limited near the lower MS Valley due to the influence of extensive convection on Monday, and increasing overnight convection over the Gulf of Mexico. Some threat for damaging gusts and perhaps some hail could accompany the morning storms if organized convection can be sustained. Most guidance suggests severe potential will wane across the region in the wake of the morning convection. However, depending on the strength and extent of convective outflow, moderate destabilization may be possible during the afternoon from east TX/OK into portions of AR/LA. While large-scale ascent will be weak in the wake of a shortwave trough associated with the morning convection, isolated redevelopment cannot be ruled out along any remnant outflow boundary. Should this occur, MLCAPE potentially in excess of 1500 J/kg and modest deep-layer shear could be sufficient to support an isolated hail and damaging wind threat with any sustained afternoon/evening storms. ...Florida... Most guidance suggests that an MCS will develop over the Gulf of Mexico and move eastward through the day. Guidance also suggests that the MCS (or its remnant) will not reach the FL Peninsula until later in the evening, though there is some potential it will progress eastward faster than expected. In advance of the MCS, isolated to widely scattered storm development will be possible over the Peninsula as low-level moisture gradually increases. With instability expected to remain rather weak, severe potential appears relatively limited with both the MCS and any earlier convection. However, with modestly favorable low-level and deep-layer shear potentially overspreading parts of the Peninsula, the severe potential will continue to be monitored in subsequent outlooks. ...OH Valley into the lower Great Lakes... Scattered convection will be possible through the day from parts of the OH Valley into the lower Great Lakes, in association with a cold front. Large-scale ascent and deep-layer flow/shear is expected to be rather weak, since the region is located between a departing northern-stream shortwave trough, and the southern-stream system affecting the Gulf Coast states. Modest preconvective heating and cool temperatures aloft could support gusty winds and small hail with the strongest storms, though the organized severe-thunderstorm threat appears limited. ..Dean/Weinman.. 03/05/2024 Read more