Aggregator

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida during the afternoon and early evening. Isolated hail is expected to be the primary threat, though locally gusty winds may also occur. ...Synopsis... A broad area of cyclonic flow aloft will continue to envelop much of the western 2/3 of the country today, while ridging prevails over the East. The exception will be a weak southern-stream short-wave trough, that will shift across Florida today. At the surface, a baroclinic zone lying from the upper Mississippi Valley area southwestward across the central Plains, and then westward across the Intermountain West will make little progress today, while high pressure prevails in the East. ...Florida Peninsula... Thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across portions of the northern half of the Florida Peninsula, with additional/more widespread convection offshore. The convection is occurring near and south of a weak surface boundary, in tandem with the southern-stream short-wave trough that will continue to move slowly eastward across the Peninsula today. A moist airmass remains in place south of the northern Florida surface boundary. This, combined with relatively cool mid-levels associated with the short-wave trough, will allow 1000 to 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE to evolve through this afternoon. Weak surface winds in the warm sector suggest inland penetration of both sea-breeze boundaries, which will support scattered thunderstorm development inland later today. While deep-layer shear will remain marginal for well-organized storms, hail will be possible with a stronger storm or two, aided by the cool air aloft. Storms should gradually diminish inland, this evening. ..Goss/Broyles.. 03/03/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper trough should move quickly eastward across FL and the East Coast up to the Mid-Atlantic on Day 4/Wednesday. While sufficient moisture to support thunderstorms will likely be in place to support thunderstorms across these areas, limited instability should tend to keep any severe threat fairly isolated/marginal. Attention then turns to another upper trough/low that is forecast to advance from the eastern Pacific across the Southwest and southern Plains from the middle to latter portion of the upcoming week. Lee cyclogenesis is expected to occur ahead of this feature across the southern High Plains, and corresponding low-level mass response should encourage low-level moisture to advance northward across parts of OK/TX into the lower MS Valley and Southeast. Severe potential may gradually increase across parts of OK/TX around Day 5/Thursday, as sufficient shear and instability should be present to support some risk for organized convection. This severe threat will probably continue into Day 6/Friday across parts of central/east TX into the lower MS Valley as the upper trough ejects eastward over these areas. By Day 7/Saturday, uncertainty increases regarding the evolution of the upper trough, as well as potential for convection to outpace the low-level moisture return and related warm sector. But, some severe threat may persist across parts of the Southeast ahead of an advancing cold front. While confidence is not high enough to include 15% severe areas for Thursday (OK/TX), Friday (southern Plains into lower MS Valley), and/or Saturday (Southeast) at this time, deterministic and ensemble model trends will be closely monitored for signs of increasing severe potential with this ejecting upper trough. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper trough should move quickly eastward across FL and the East Coast up to the Mid-Atlantic on Day 4/Wednesday. While sufficient moisture to support thunderstorms will likely be in place to support thunderstorms across these areas, limited instability should tend to keep any severe threat fairly isolated/marginal. Attention then turns to another upper trough/low that is forecast to advance from the eastern Pacific across the Southwest and southern Plains from the middle to latter portion of the upcoming week. Lee cyclogenesis is expected to occur ahead of this feature across the southern High Plains, and corresponding low-level mass response should encourage low-level moisture to advance northward across parts of OK/TX into the lower MS Valley and Southeast. Severe potential may gradually increase across parts of OK/TX around Day 5/Thursday, as sufficient shear and instability should be present to support some risk for organized convection. This severe threat will probably continue into Day 6/Friday across parts of central/east TX into the lower MS Valley as the upper trough ejects eastward over these areas. By Day 7/Saturday, uncertainty increases regarding the evolution of the upper trough, as well as potential for convection to outpace the low-level moisture return and related warm sector. But, some severe threat may persist across parts of the Southeast ahead of an advancing cold front. While confidence is not high enough to include 15% severe areas for Thursday (OK/TX), Friday (southern Plains into lower MS Valley), and/or Saturday (Southeast) at this time, deterministic and ensemble model trends will be closely monitored for signs of increasing severe potential with this ejecting upper trough. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper trough should move quickly eastward across FL and the East Coast up to the Mid-Atlantic on Day 4/Wednesday. While sufficient moisture to support thunderstorms will likely be in place to support thunderstorms across these areas, limited instability should tend to keep any severe threat fairly isolated/marginal. Attention then turns to another upper trough/low that is forecast to advance from the eastern Pacific across the Southwest and southern Plains from the middle to latter portion of the upcoming week. Lee cyclogenesis is expected to occur ahead of this feature across the southern High Plains, and corresponding low-level mass response should encourage low-level moisture to advance northward across parts of OK/TX into the lower MS Valley and Southeast. Severe potential may gradually increase across parts of OK/TX around Day 5/Thursday, as sufficient shear and instability should be present to support some risk for organized convection. This severe threat will probably continue into Day 6/Friday across parts of central/east TX into the lower MS Valley as the upper trough ejects eastward over these areas. By Day 7/Saturday, uncertainty increases regarding the evolution of the upper trough, as well as potential for convection to outpace the low-level moisture return and related warm sector. But, some severe threat may persist across parts of the Southeast ahead of an advancing cold front. While confidence is not high enough to include 15% severe areas for Thursday (OK/TX), Friday (southern Plains into lower MS Valley), and/or Saturday (Southeast) at this time, deterministic and ensemble model trends will be closely monitored for signs of increasing severe potential with this ejecting upper trough. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper trough should move quickly eastward across FL and the East Coast up to the Mid-Atlantic on Day 4/Wednesday. While sufficient moisture to support thunderstorms will likely be in place to support thunderstorms across these areas, limited instability should tend to keep any severe threat fairly isolated/marginal. Attention then turns to another upper trough/low that is forecast to advance from the eastern Pacific across the Southwest and southern Plains from the middle to latter portion of the upcoming week. Lee cyclogenesis is expected to occur ahead of this feature across the southern High Plains, and corresponding low-level mass response should encourage low-level moisture to advance northward across parts of OK/TX into the lower MS Valley and Southeast. Severe potential may gradually increase across parts of OK/TX around Day 5/Thursday, as sufficient shear and instability should be present to support some risk for organized convection. This severe threat will probably continue into Day 6/Friday across parts of central/east TX into the lower MS Valley as the upper trough ejects eastward over these areas. By Day 7/Saturday, uncertainty increases regarding the evolution of the upper trough, as well as potential for convection to outpace the low-level moisture return and related warm sector. But, some severe threat may persist across parts of the Southeast ahead of an advancing cold front. While confidence is not high enough to include 15% severe areas for Thursday (OK/TX), Friday (southern Plains into lower MS Valley), and/or Saturday (Southeast) at this time, deterministic and ensemble model trends will be closely monitored for signs of increasing severe potential with this ejecting upper trough. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper trough should move quickly eastward across FL and the East Coast up to the Mid-Atlantic on Day 4/Wednesday. While sufficient moisture to support thunderstorms will likely be in place to support thunderstorms across these areas, limited instability should tend to keep any severe threat fairly isolated/marginal. Attention then turns to another upper trough/low that is forecast to advance from the eastern Pacific across the Southwest and southern Plains from the middle to latter portion of the upcoming week. Lee cyclogenesis is expected to occur ahead of this feature across the southern High Plains, and corresponding low-level mass response should encourage low-level moisture to advance northward across parts of OK/TX into the lower MS Valley and Southeast. Severe potential may gradually increase across parts of OK/TX around Day 5/Thursday, as sufficient shear and instability should be present to support some risk for organized convection. This severe threat will probably continue into Day 6/Friday across parts of central/east TX into the lower MS Valley as the upper trough ejects eastward over these areas. By Day 7/Saturday, uncertainty increases regarding the evolution of the upper trough, as well as potential for convection to outpace the low-level moisture return and related warm sector. But, some severe threat may persist across parts of the Southeast ahead of an advancing cold front. While confidence is not high enough to include 15% severe areas for Thursday (OK/TX), Friday (southern Plains into lower MS Valley), and/or Saturday (Southeast) at this time, deterministic and ensemble model trends will be closely monitored for signs of increasing severe potential with this ejecting upper trough. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper trough should move quickly eastward across FL and the East Coast up to the Mid-Atlantic on Day 4/Wednesday. While sufficient moisture to support thunderstorms will likely be in place to support thunderstorms across these areas, limited instability should tend to keep any severe threat fairly isolated/marginal. Attention then turns to another upper trough/low that is forecast to advance from the eastern Pacific across the Southwest and southern Plains from the middle to latter portion of the upcoming week. Lee cyclogenesis is expected to occur ahead of this feature across the southern High Plains, and corresponding low-level mass response should encourage low-level moisture to advance northward across parts of OK/TX into the lower MS Valley and Southeast. Severe potential may gradually increase across parts of OK/TX around Day 5/Thursday, as sufficient shear and instability should be present to support some risk for organized convection. This severe threat will probably continue into Day 6/Friday across parts of central/east TX into the lower MS Valley as the upper trough ejects eastward over these areas. By Day 7/Saturday, uncertainty increases regarding the evolution of the upper trough, as well as potential for convection to outpace the low-level moisture return and related warm sector. But, some severe threat may persist across parts of the Southeast ahead of an advancing cold front. While confidence is not high enough to include 15% severe areas for Thursday (OK/TX), Friday (southern Plains into lower MS Valley), and/or Saturday (Southeast) at this time, deterministic and ensemble model trends will be closely monitored for signs of increasing severe potential with this ejecting upper trough. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible mainly Tuesday morning across parts of east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms will probably be ongoing at the start of the period Tuesday morning from parts of east TX into the lower MS Valley. Some of this activity could be strong to locally severe, as a moist and modestly unstable airmass will be in place across this region. A low-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward across the Southeast and away from the lower MS Valley through the day. Corresponding deep-layer shear should gradually weaken through Tuesday afternoon as the related mid-level flow likewise lessens. Still, there should be sufficient shear for at least modest updraft organization with any ongoing convection Tuesday morning. Occasional strong to damaging winds and perhaps isolated severe hail may occur with more robust updrafts, before convection either weakens or moves offshore. The potential for additional robust thunderstorm development in the wake of the morning activity appears highly uncertain/conditional. But, some guidance suggests that the airmass will attempt to recover along/east of a dryline across east TX into the ArkLaTex vicinity. Regardless, large-scale subsidence behind the shortwave trough should tend to hinder additional development both along the dryline and with a slowly southeastward-moving cold front. ..Gleason.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible mainly Tuesday morning across parts of east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms will probably be ongoing at the start of the period Tuesday morning from parts of east TX into the lower MS Valley. Some of this activity could be strong to locally severe, as a moist and modestly unstable airmass will be in place across this region. A low-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward across the Southeast and away from the lower MS Valley through the day. Corresponding deep-layer shear should gradually weaken through Tuesday afternoon as the related mid-level flow likewise lessens. Still, there should be sufficient shear for at least modest updraft organization with any ongoing convection Tuesday morning. Occasional strong to damaging winds and perhaps isolated severe hail may occur with more robust updrafts, before convection either weakens or moves offshore. The potential for additional robust thunderstorm development in the wake of the morning activity appears highly uncertain/conditional. But, some guidance suggests that the airmass will attempt to recover along/east of a dryline across east TX into the ArkLaTex vicinity. Regardless, large-scale subsidence behind the shortwave trough should tend to hinder additional development both along the dryline and with a slowly southeastward-moving cold front. ..Gleason.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible mainly Tuesday morning across parts of east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms will probably be ongoing at the start of the period Tuesday morning from parts of east TX into the lower MS Valley. Some of this activity could be strong to locally severe, as a moist and modestly unstable airmass will be in place across this region. A low-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward across the Southeast and away from the lower MS Valley through the day. Corresponding deep-layer shear should gradually weaken through Tuesday afternoon as the related mid-level flow likewise lessens. Still, there should be sufficient shear for at least modest updraft organization with any ongoing convection Tuesday morning. Occasional strong to damaging winds and perhaps isolated severe hail may occur with more robust updrafts, before convection either weakens or moves offshore. The potential for additional robust thunderstorm development in the wake of the morning activity appears highly uncertain/conditional. But, some guidance suggests that the airmass will attempt to recover along/east of a dryline across east TX into the ArkLaTex vicinity. Regardless, large-scale subsidence behind the shortwave trough should tend to hinder additional development both along the dryline and with a slowly southeastward-moving cold front. ..Gleason.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible mainly Tuesday morning across parts of east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms will probably be ongoing at the start of the period Tuesday morning from parts of east TX into the lower MS Valley. Some of this activity could be strong to locally severe, as a moist and modestly unstable airmass will be in place across this region. A low-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward across the Southeast and away from the lower MS Valley through the day. Corresponding deep-layer shear should gradually weaken through Tuesday afternoon as the related mid-level flow likewise lessens. Still, there should be sufficient shear for at least modest updraft organization with any ongoing convection Tuesday morning. Occasional strong to damaging winds and perhaps isolated severe hail may occur with more robust updrafts, before convection either weakens or moves offshore. The potential for additional robust thunderstorm development in the wake of the morning activity appears highly uncertain/conditional. But, some guidance suggests that the airmass will attempt to recover along/east of a dryline across east TX into the ArkLaTex vicinity. Regardless, large-scale subsidence behind the shortwave trough should tend to hinder additional development both along the dryline and with a slowly southeastward-moving cold front. ..Gleason.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible mainly Tuesday morning across parts of east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms will probably be ongoing at the start of the period Tuesday morning from parts of east TX into the lower MS Valley. Some of this activity could be strong to locally severe, as a moist and modestly unstable airmass will be in place across this region. A low-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward across the Southeast and away from the lower MS Valley through the day. Corresponding deep-layer shear should gradually weaken through Tuesday afternoon as the related mid-level flow likewise lessens. Still, there should be sufficient shear for at least modest updraft organization with any ongoing convection Tuesday morning. Occasional strong to damaging winds and perhaps isolated severe hail may occur with more robust updrafts, before convection either weakens or moves offshore. The potential for additional robust thunderstorm development in the wake of the morning activity appears highly uncertain/conditional. But, some guidance suggests that the airmass will attempt to recover along/east of a dryline across east TX into the ArkLaTex vicinity. Regardless, large-scale subsidence behind the shortwave trough should tend to hinder additional development both along the dryline and with a slowly southeastward-moving cold front. ..Gleason.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible mainly Tuesday morning across parts of east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms will probably be ongoing at the start of the period Tuesday morning from parts of east TX into the lower MS Valley. Some of this activity could be strong to locally severe, as a moist and modestly unstable airmass will be in place across this region. A low-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward across the Southeast and away from the lower MS Valley through the day. Corresponding deep-layer shear should gradually weaken through Tuesday afternoon as the related mid-level flow likewise lessens. Still, there should be sufficient shear for at least modest updraft organization with any ongoing convection Tuesday morning. Occasional strong to damaging winds and perhaps isolated severe hail may occur with more robust updrafts, before convection either weakens or moves offshore. The potential for additional robust thunderstorm development in the wake of the morning activity appears highly uncertain/conditional. But, some guidance suggests that the airmass will attempt to recover along/east of a dryline across east TX into the ArkLaTex vicinity. Regardless, large-scale subsidence behind the shortwave trough should tend to hinder additional development both along the dryline and with a slowly southeastward-moving cold front. ..Gleason.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Midlevel westerly flow will gradually weaken across the central/southern Plains on D2/Monday, while a weak surface cyclone departs the region. On the backside of this feature, locally dry/breezy post-frontal conditions are expected across portions of KS during the afternoon, yielding a brief period of elevated fire-weather conditions. However, current indications are that these conditions will be too brief/marginal for Elevated highlights. Farther south, a weak/remnant lee cyclone over the central High Plains will encourage breezy westerly surface winds amid marginally low RH across portions of the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Similarly, any elevated fire-weather conditions should remain too localized/marginal for Elevated highlights. ..Weinman.. 03/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Midlevel westerly flow will gradually weaken across the central/southern Plains on D2/Monday, while a weak surface cyclone departs the region. On the backside of this feature, locally dry/breezy post-frontal conditions are expected across portions of KS during the afternoon, yielding a brief period of elevated fire-weather conditions. However, current indications are that these conditions will be too brief/marginal for Elevated highlights. Farther south, a weak/remnant lee cyclone over the central High Plains will encourage breezy westerly surface winds amid marginally low RH across portions of the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Similarly, any elevated fire-weather conditions should remain too localized/marginal for Elevated highlights. ..Weinman.. 03/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Midlevel westerly flow will gradually weaken across the central/southern Plains on D2/Monday, while a weak surface cyclone departs the region. On the backside of this feature, locally dry/breezy post-frontal conditions are expected across portions of KS during the afternoon, yielding a brief period of elevated fire-weather conditions. However, current indications are that these conditions will be too brief/marginal for Elevated highlights. Farther south, a weak/remnant lee cyclone over the central High Plains will encourage breezy westerly surface winds amid marginally low RH across portions of the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Similarly, any elevated fire-weather conditions should remain too localized/marginal for Elevated highlights. ..Weinman.. 03/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Midlevel westerly flow will gradually weaken across the central/southern Plains on D2/Monday, while a weak surface cyclone departs the region. On the backside of this feature, locally dry/breezy post-frontal conditions are expected across portions of KS during the afternoon, yielding a brief period of elevated fire-weather conditions. However, current indications are that these conditions will be too brief/marginal for Elevated highlights. Farther south, a weak/remnant lee cyclone over the central High Plains will encourage breezy westerly surface winds amid marginally low RH across portions of the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Similarly, any elevated fire-weather conditions should remain too localized/marginal for Elevated highlights. ..Weinman.. 03/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A belt of strong west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the Rockies and adjacent Plains, while an embedded shortwave trough and attendant surface cyclone lift northeastward across the northern Plains. At the same time, the core of the strongest flow aloft will overspread the central Rockies, encouraging secondary/lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO into western KS. In response to these developments, a tight surface pressure gradient will develop across much of the Great Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley, where seasonably warm, dry, and windy conditions will favor widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern High Plains... Along/south of the deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (higher along the I-25 corridor) will develop across much of the southern High Plains in response to the tightening surface pressure gradient. In addition, deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will support gusts upwards of 30-40 mph over the Plains, and 50-60 mph gusts along the higher terrain/I-25 corridor. These strong/gusty surface winds, coupled with 10-15 percent minimum RH (aided by the strong downsloping), will yield critical fire-weather conditions given dry fuels across the region. While a slight minimum in sustained surface winds is possible over the TX South Plains (owing to terrain influences), breezy/gusty winds amid single-digit RH should still support near-critical to critical conditions. For the northern Plains, the strongest westerly surface winds will generally remain to the north of the lowest RH (where cooler surface temperatures are expected). However, high-end elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are still expected given 25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). Similarly, 20-25 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop across the Mid/Upper MS Valley -- along the eastern periphery of the lowest RH. Despite the slightly higher RH here, high-end elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are still expected owing to the strong/gusty surface winds atop increasingly receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 03/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A belt of strong west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the Rockies and adjacent Plains, while an embedded shortwave trough and attendant surface cyclone lift northeastward across the northern Plains. At the same time, the core of the strongest flow aloft will overspread the central Rockies, encouraging secondary/lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO into western KS. In response to these developments, a tight surface pressure gradient will develop across much of the Great Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley, where seasonably warm, dry, and windy conditions will favor widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern High Plains... Along/south of the deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (higher along the I-25 corridor) will develop across much of the southern High Plains in response to the tightening surface pressure gradient. In addition, deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will support gusts upwards of 30-40 mph over the Plains, and 50-60 mph gusts along the higher terrain/I-25 corridor. These strong/gusty surface winds, coupled with 10-15 percent minimum RH (aided by the strong downsloping), will yield critical fire-weather conditions given dry fuels across the region. While a slight minimum in sustained surface winds is possible over the TX South Plains (owing to terrain influences), breezy/gusty winds amid single-digit RH should still support near-critical to critical conditions. For the northern Plains, the strongest westerly surface winds will generally remain to the north of the lowest RH (where cooler surface temperatures are expected). However, high-end elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are still expected given 25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). Similarly, 20-25 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop across the Mid/Upper MS Valley -- along the eastern periphery of the lowest RH. Despite the slightly higher RH here, high-end elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are still expected owing to the strong/gusty surface winds atop increasingly receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 03/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A belt of strong west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the Rockies and adjacent Plains, while an embedded shortwave trough and attendant surface cyclone lift northeastward across the northern Plains. At the same time, the core of the strongest flow aloft will overspread the central Rockies, encouraging secondary/lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO into western KS. In response to these developments, a tight surface pressure gradient will develop across much of the Great Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley, where seasonably warm, dry, and windy conditions will favor widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern High Plains... Along/south of the deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (higher along the I-25 corridor) will develop across much of the southern High Plains in response to the tightening surface pressure gradient. In addition, deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will support gusts upwards of 30-40 mph over the Plains, and 50-60 mph gusts along the higher terrain/I-25 corridor. These strong/gusty surface winds, coupled with 10-15 percent minimum RH (aided by the strong downsloping), will yield critical fire-weather conditions given dry fuels across the region. While a slight minimum in sustained surface winds is possible over the TX South Plains (owing to terrain influences), breezy/gusty winds amid single-digit RH should still support near-critical to critical conditions. For the northern Plains, the strongest westerly surface winds will generally remain to the north of the lowest RH (where cooler surface temperatures are expected). However, high-end elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are still expected given 25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). Similarly, 20-25 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop across the Mid/Upper MS Valley -- along the eastern periphery of the lowest RH. Despite the slightly higher RH here, high-end elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are still expected owing to the strong/gusty surface winds atop increasingly receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 03/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more