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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across parts of the Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... An upper trough is forecast to advance quickly northeastward across FL, GA, and the Carolinas into the western Atlantic on Wednesday. A related, weak surface low should develop over inland portions of GA to the southeastern VA vicinity by Wednesday afternoon. While isolated thunderstorms appear possible across these areas along/east of a front, greater instability should generally remain offshore over the warmer Gulf Stream waters. A separate area of thunderstorm activity may also occur primarily Wednesday night across parts of the southern/central Plains as low-level moisture gradually advances northward over these regions ahead of a developing upper cyclone over the eastern Pacific and adjacent portions of the Southwest and northern Mexico. MUCAPE is currently expected to remain too limited to support a meaningful hail threat with any elevated thunderstorms that can develop with strengthening low-level warm advection through the end of the period. ...Florida Peninsula... Cool temperatures at mid levels (500 mb around -10 to -12C) should aid in moderate instability developing across parts of the central and southern FL Peninsula through Wednesday afternoon. Ascent associated with the upper trough, and a related mid/upper-level jet, will help foster scattered thunderstorms moving eastward from the eastern Gulf across the FL Peninsula through the day. Even though deep-layer shear may only strengthen to around 25-35 kt, somewhat elongated/straight hodographs at mid/upper levels should support an isolated hail threat with any of the stronger cores that can develop. Occasional damaging winds also appear possible with convective downdrafts as low-level lapse rates steepen with daytime heating. Even though the overall severe threat may tend to remain fairly isolated, there is enough of a favorable signal in most guidance for convection to include a Marginal Risk for parts of the central/southern FL Peninsula. ..Gleason.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across parts of the Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... An upper trough is forecast to advance quickly northeastward across FL, GA, and the Carolinas into the western Atlantic on Wednesday. A related, weak surface low should develop over inland portions of GA to the southeastern VA vicinity by Wednesday afternoon. While isolated thunderstorms appear possible across these areas along/east of a front, greater instability should generally remain offshore over the warmer Gulf Stream waters. A separate area of thunderstorm activity may also occur primarily Wednesday night across parts of the southern/central Plains as low-level moisture gradually advances northward over these regions ahead of a developing upper cyclone over the eastern Pacific and adjacent portions of the Southwest and northern Mexico. MUCAPE is currently expected to remain too limited to support a meaningful hail threat with any elevated thunderstorms that can develop with strengthening low-level warm advection through the end of the period. ...Florida Peninsula... Cool temperatures at mid levels (500 mb around -10 to -12C) should aid in moderate instability developing across parts of the central and southern FL Peninsula through Wednesday afternoon. Ascent associated with the upper trough, and a related mid/upper-level jet, will help foster scattered thunderstorms moving eastward from the eastern Gulf across the FL Peninsula through the day. Even though deep-layer shear may only strengthen to around 25-35 kt, somewhat elongated/straight hodographs at mid/upper levels should support an isolated hail threat with any of the stronger cores that can develop. Occasional damaging winds also appear possible with convective downdrafts as low-level lapse rates steepen with daytime heating. Even though the overall severe threat may tend to remain fairly isolated, there is enough of a favorable signal in most guidance for convection to include a Marginal Risk for parts of the central/southern FL Peninsula. ..Gleason.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across parts of the Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... An upper trough is forecast to advance quickly northeastward across FL, GA, and the Carolinas into the western Atlantic on Wednesday. A related, weak surface low should develop over inland portions of GA to the southeastern VA vicinity by Wednesday afternoon. While isolated thunderstorms appear possible across these areas along/east of a front, greater instability should generally remain offshore over the warmer Gulf Stream waters. A separate area of thunderstorm activity may also occur primarily Wednesday night across parts of the southern/central Plains as low-level moisture gradually advances northward over these regions ahead of a developing upper cyclone over the eastern Pacific and adjacent portions of the Southwest and northern Mexico. MUCAPE is currently expected to remain too limited to support a meaningful hail threat with any elevated thunderstorms that can develop with strengthening low-level warm advection through the end of the period. ...Florida Peninsula... Cool temperatures at mid levels (500 mb around -10 to -12C) should aid in moderate instability developing across parts of the central and southern FL Peninsula through Wednesday afternoon. Ascent associated with the upper trough, and a related mid/upper-level jet, will help foster scattered thunderstorms moving eastward from the eastern Gulf across the FL Peninsula through the day. Even though deep-layer shear may only strengthen to around 25-35 kt, somewhat elongated/straight hodographs at mid/upper levels should support an isolated hail threat with any of the stronger cores that can develop. Occasional damaging winds also appear possible with convective downdrafts as low-level lapse rates steepen with daytime heating. Even though the overall severe threat may tend to remain fairly isolated, there is enough of a favorable signal in most guidance for convection to include a Marginal Risk for parts of the central/southern FL Peninsula. ..Gleason.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across parts of the Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... An upper trough is forecast to advance quickly northeastward across FL, GA, and the Carolinas into the western Atlantic on Wednesday. A related, weak surface low should develop over inland portions of GA to the southeastern VA vicinity by Wednesday afternoon. While isolated thunderstorms appear possible across these areas along/east of a front, greater instability should generally remain offshore over the warmer Gulf Stream waters. A separate area of thunderstorm activity may also occur primarily Wednesday night across parts of the southern/central Plains as low-level moisture gradually advances northward over these regions ahead of a developing upper cyclone over the eastern Pacific and adjacent portions of the Southwest and northern Mexico. MUCAPE is currently expected to remain too limited to support a meaningful hail threat with any elevated thunderstorms that can develop with strengthening low-level warm advection through the end of the period. ...Florida Peninsula... Cool temperatures at mid levels (500 mb around -10 to -12C) should aid in moderate instability developing across parts of the central and southern FL Peninsula through Wednesday afternoon. Ascent associated with the upper trough, and a related mid/upper-level jet, will help foster scattered thunderstorms moving eastward from the eastern Gulf across the FL Peninsula through the day. Even though deep-layer shear may only strengthen to around 25-35 kt, somewhat elongated/straight hodographs at mid/upper levels should support an isolated hail threat with any of the stronger cores that can develop. Occasional damaging winds also appear possible with convective downdrafts as low-level lapse rates steepen with daytime heating. Even though the overall severe threat may tend to remain fairly isolated, there is enough of a favorable signal in most guidance for convection to include a Marginal Risk for parts of the central/southern FL Peninsula. ..Gleason.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across parts of the Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... An upper trough is forecast to advance quickly northeastward across FL, GA, and the Carolinas into the western Atlantic on Wednesday. A related, weak surface low should develop over inland portions of GA to the southeastern VA vicinity by Wednesday afternoon. While isolated thunderstorms appear possible across these areas along/east of a front, greater instability should generally remain offshore over the warmer Gulf Stream waters. A separate area of thunderstorm activity may also occur primarily Wednesday night across parts of the southern/central Plains as low-level moisture gradually advances northward over these regions ahead of a developing upper cyclone over the eastern Pacific and adjacent portions of the Southwest and northern Mexico. MUCAPE is currently expected to remain too limited to support a meaningful hail threat with any elevated thunderstorms that can develop with strengthening low-level warm advection through the end of the period. ...Florida Peninsula... Cool temperatures at mid levels (500 mb around -10 to -12C) should aid in moderate instability developing across parts of the central and southern FL Peninsula through Wednesday afternoon. Ascent associated with the upper trough, and a related mid/upper-level jet, will help foster scattered thunderstorms moving eastward from the eastern Gulf across the FL Peninsula through the day. Even though deep-layer shear may only strengthen to around 25-35 kt, somewhat elongated/straight hodographs at mid/upper levels should support an isolated hail threat with any of the stronger cores that can develop. Occasional damaging winds also appear possible with convective downdrafts as low-level lapse rates steepen with daytime heating. Even though the overall severe threat may tend to remain fairly isolated, there is enough of a favorable signal in most guidance for convection to include a Marginal Risk for parts of the central/southern FL Peninsula. ..Gleason.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS/OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Tuesday across parts of east Texas/Oklahoma into the lower Mississippi Valley. Occasional large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...East Texas/Oklahoma into the Lower Mississippi Valley... A mid-level, southern-stream shortwave trough will be located over the lower MS Valley at the start of the period Tuesday morning. This feature should continue moving east-northeastward across the central Gulf Coast states and Southeast through early Wednesday morning. Multiple clusters of thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Tuesday morning across parts of east TX into the lower MS Valley in association with modest lift attendant to the shortwave trough. Although boundary-layer instability may be somewhat muted Tuesday morning with lingering MLCIN, the presence of modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates and diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass should contribute to weak to moderate instability developing by Tuesday afternoon east of a surface dryline across east TX, and south of a cold front extending from central/eastern OK into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley. Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with the ongoing activity Tuesday morning, as enhanced mid-level winds with the shortwave trough contribute to sufficient deep-layer shear to support some updraft organization. Various high-resolution model guidance suggests potential for this morning activity to consolidate into one or more clusters as it spreads east-southeastward over the lower MS Valley. If this occurs, then perhaps a greater damaging wind threat may exist assuming sufficient destabilization is realized. Once these thunderstorms move offshore, the isolated severe threat should generally lessen across the lower MS Valley, except for in the vicinity of the cold front and dryline. Additional convective development along both of these boundaries Tuesday afternoon appears possible, even though large-scale ascent will be nebulous at best behind the departing shortwave trough. Still, with moderate MLCAPE forecast to develop by both the NAM and RAP, any robust convection that can develop could produce isolated large hail and damaging winds, even as deep-layer shear remains modest. The Marginal Risk for hail/wind has been expanded northward a bit into eastern OK, AR, and towards the Mid-South vicinity to account for this possible afternoon/early evening development. ..Gleason.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS/OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Tuesday across parts of east Texas/Oklahoma into the lower Mississippi Valley. Occasional large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...East Texas/Oklahoma into the Lower Mississippi Valley... A mid-level, southern-stream shortwave trough will be located over the lower MS Valley at the start of the period Tuesday morning. This feature should continue moving east-northeastward across the central Gulf Coast states and Southeast through early Wednesday morning. Multiple clusters of thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Tuesday morning across parts of east TX into the lower MS Valley in association with modest lift attendant to the shortwave trough. Although boundary-layer instability may be somewhat muted Tuesday morning with lingering MLCIN, the presence of modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates and diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass should contribute to weak to moderate instability developing by Tuesday afternoon east of a surface dryline across east TX, and south of a cold front extending from central/eastern OK into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley. Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with the ongoing activity Tuesday morning, as enhanced mid-level winds with the shortwave trough contribute to sufficient deep-layer shear to support some updraft organization. Various high-resolution model guidance suggests potential for this morning activity to consolidate into one or more clusters as it spreads east-southeastward over the lower MS Valley. If this occurs, then perhaps a greater damaging wind threat may exist assuming sufficient destabilization is realized. Once these thunderstorms move offshore, the isolated severe threat should generally lessen across the lower MS Valley, except for in the vicinity of the cold front and dryline. Additional convective development along both of these boundaries Tuesday afternoon appears possible, even though large-scale ascent will be nebulous at best behind the departing shortwave trough. Still, with moderate MLCAPE forecast to develop by both the NAM and RAP, any robust convection that can develop could produce isolated large hail and damaging winds, even as deep-layer shear remains modest. The Marginal Risk for hail/wind has been expanded northward a bit into eastern OK, AR, and towards the Mid-South vicinity to account for this possible afternoon/early evening development. ..Gleason.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS/OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Tuesday across parts of east Texas/Oklahoma into the lower Mississippi Valley. Occasional large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...East Texas/Oklahoma into the Lower Mississippi Valley... A mid-level, southern-stream shortwave trough will be located over the lower MS Valley at the start of the period Tuesday morning. This feature should continue moving east-northeastward across the central Gulf Coast states and Southeast through early Wednesday morning. Multiple clusters of thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Tuesday morning across parts of east TX into the lower MS Valley in association with modest lift attendant to the shortwave trough. Although boundary-layer instability may be somewhat muted Tuesday morning with lingering MLCIN, the presence of modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates and diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass should contribute to weak to moderate instability developing by Tuesday afternoon east of a surface dryline across east TX, and south of a cold front extending from central/eastern OK into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley. Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with the ongoing activity Tuesday morning, as enhanced mid-level winds with the shortwave trough contribute to sufficient deep-layer shear to support some updraft organization. Various high-resolution model guidance suggests potential for this morning activity to consolidate into one or more clusters as it spreads east-southeastward over the lower MS Valley. If this occurs, then perhaps a greater damaging wind threat may exist assuming sufficient destabilization is realized. Once these thunderstorms move offshore, the isolated severe threat should generally lessen across the lower MS Valley, except for in the vicinity of the cold front and dryline. Additional convective development along both of these boundaries Tuesday afternoon appears possible, even though large-scale ascent will be nebulous at best behind the departing shortwave trough. Still, with moderate MLCAPE forecast to develop by both the NAM and RAP, any robust convection that can develop could produce isolated large hail and damaging winds, even as deep-layer shear remains modest. The Marginal Risk for hail/wind has been expanded northward a bit into eastern OK, AR, and towards the Mid-South vicinity to account for this possible afternoon/early evening development. ..Gleason.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS/OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Tuesday across parts of east Texas/Oklahoma into the lower Mississippi Valley. Occasional large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...East Texas/Oklahoma into the Lower Mississippi Valley... A mid-level, southern-stream shortwave trough will be located over the lower MS Valley at the start of the period Tuesday morning. This feature should continue moving east-northeastward across the central Gulf Coast states and Southeast through early Wednesday morning. Multiple clusters of thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Tuesday morning across parts of east TX into the lower MS Valley in association with modest lift attendant to the shortwave trough. Although boundary-layer instability may be somewhat muted Tuesday morning with lingering MLCIN, the presence of modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates and diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass should contribute to weak to moderate instability developing by Tuesday afternoon east of a surface dryline across east TX, and south of a cold front extending from central/eastern OK into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley. Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with the ongoing activity Tuesday morning, as enhanced mid-level winds with the shortwave trough contribute to sufficient deep-layer shear to support some updraft organization. Various high-resolution model guidance suggests potential for this morning activity to consolidate into one or more clusters as it spreads east-southeastward over the lower MS Valley. If this occurs, then perhaps a greater damaging wind threat may exist assuming sufficient destabilization is realized. Once these thunderstorms move offshore, the isolated severe threat should generally lessen across the lower MS Valley, except for in the vicinity of the cold front and dryline. Additional convective development along both of these boundaries Tuesday afternoon appears possible, even though large-scale ascent will be nebulous at best behind the departing shortwave trough. Still, with moderate MLCAPE forecast to develop by both the NAM and RAP, any robust convection that can develop could produce isolated large hail and damaging winds, even as deep-layer shear remains modest. The Marginal Risk for hail/wind has been expanded northward a bit into eastern OK, AR, and towards the Mid-South vicinity to account for this possible afternoon/early evening development. ..Gleason.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail is expected to be the main threat, but strong/gusty winds and a tornado or two may also occur. ...Synopsis... A large-scale mid/upper-level trough will cover much of the central/western CONUS through the day. Within the broader trough, multiple belts of stronger flow will impinge upon portions of the southern Plains, lower/mid MS Valley, and Midwest. A strong northern-stream shortwave trough will move quickly northeastward away from the upper Great Lakes during the morning, with multiple lower-amplitude vorticity maxima following in its wake. Meanwhile, a southern-stream mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move from northern Mexico into Texas by afternoon, and towards the lower MS Valley by late evening. A surface cyclone is forecast to move along a frontal boundary from the south-central Plains northeastward toward the mid MS Valley by evening. ...Parts of IL/MO into eastern IA and southern WI... A surface boundary is forecast to move northward as a warm front into parts of eastern IA, northern IL, and perhaps southern WI during the day, before stalling and then moving southeastward as a cold front during the evening. Across the warm sector, modest low-level moisture (dewpoints generally in the mid/upper 50s F) beneath relatively cold temperatures aloft will support MLCAPE increasing into the 1000-1500 J/kg range this afternoon. Some weakening of mid/upper-level flow is expected through the day in the wake of the departing shortwave, but will remain sufficient to support effective shear of 35-45 kt, which is conditionally favorable for organized convection. While a strong elevated storm or two will be possible across WI during the morning, the primary concern is for storm development in the vicinity of the surface front by late afternoon or early evening. Guidance varies regarding the timing of initiation and placement of the surface features, but in general, scattered thunderstorm development is expected from northeast MO/eastern IA into northern IL and southern WI. An initial supercell or two will be possible, though there may be a tendency toward more of a complex or linear mode with time as the front begins to push southeastward. Hail appears to be the most likely hazard at this time, though there will also be some potential for isolated strong/damaging gusts. Some tornado potential could also evolve if a surface-based supercell or two can be sustained. Uncertainties regarding placement/timing of the surface front and longevity of any supercell potential preclude higher probabilities across the region at this time. ...Parts of TX/eastern OK into the Ozarks and lower MS Valley... Relatively rich low-level moisture (with dewpoints increasing through the 60s F) will stream northward through the day across parts of TX, eastern OK, AR, and LA. Thunderstorm development will be possible by late morning into the afternoon along the northern periphery of the deeper returning moisture across parts of LA and perhaps into adjacent portions of southwest MS and southeast TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop the deepening moisture will support preconvective MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection. A few strong multicells and perhaps a supercell or two will be possible, with an attendant threat of hail and locally damaging gusts. Farther west into TX, the diurnal severe threat is more conditional, with large-scale ascent expected to remain rather weak and relatively limited convergence along the dryline. However, a very isolated supercell or two cannot be ruled out during the late afternoon and evening, which would pose a large-hail threat. Overnight, most guidance suggests renewed storm development near the ArkLaTex region, likely in response to the southern-stream shortwave trough approaching the region. Storms within this late-night regime would likely be slightly elevated, but moderate buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear may support an isolated hail and/or damaging-gust threat into early Tuesday morning. ..Dean/Weinman.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail is expected to be the main threat, but strong/gusty winds and a tornado or two may also occur. ...Synopsis... A large-scale mid/upper-level trough will cover much of the central/western CONUS through the day. Within the broader trough, multiple belts of stronger flow will impinge upon portions of the southern Plains, lower/mid MS Valley, and Midwest. A strong northern-stream shortwave trough will move quickly northeastward away from the upper Great Lakes during the morning, with multiple lower-amplitude vorticity maxima following in its wake. Meanwhile, a southern-stream mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move from northern Mexico into Texas by afternoon, and towards the lower MS Valley by late evening. A surface cyclone is forecast to move along a frontal boundary from the south-central Plains northeastward toward the mid MS Valley by evening. ...Parts of IL/MO into eastern IA and southern WI... A surface boundary is forecast to move northward as a warm front into parts of eastern IA, northern IL, and perhaps southern WI during the day, before stalling and then moving southeastward as a cold front during the evening. Across the warm sector, modest low-level moisture (dewpoints generally in the mid/upper 50s F) beneath relatively cold temperatures aloft will support MLCAPE increasing into the 1000-1500 J/kg range this afternoon. Some weakening of mid/upper-level flow is expected through the day in the wake of the departing shortwave, but will remain sufficient to support effective shear of 35-45 kt, which is conditionally favorable for organized convection. While a strong elevated storm or two will be possible across WI during the morning, the primary concern is for storm development in the vicinity of the surface front by late afternoon or early evening. Guidance varies regarding the timing of initiation and placement of the surface features, but in general, scattered thunderstorm development is expected from northeast MO/eastern IA into northern IL and southern WI. An initial supercell or two will be possible, though there may be a tendency toward more of a complex or linear mode with time as the front begins to push southeastward. Hail appears to be the most likely hazard at this time, though there will also be some potential for isolated strong/damaging gusts. Some tornado potential could also evolve if a surface-based supercell or two can be sustained. Uncertainties regarding placement/timing of the surface front and longevity of any supercell potential preclude higher probabilities across the region at this time. ...Parts of TX/eastern OK into the Ozarks and lower MS Valley... Relatively rich low-level moisture (with dewpoints increasing through the 60s F) will stream northward through the day across parts of TX, eastern OK, AR, and LA. Thunderstorm development will be possible by late morning into the afternoon along the northern periphery of the deeper returning moisture across parts of LA and perhaps into adjacent portions of southwest MS and southeast TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop the deepening moisture will support preconvective MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection. A few strong multicells and perhaps a supercell or two will be possible, with an attendant threat of hail and locally damaging gusts. Farther west into TX, the diurnal severe threat is more conditional, with large-scale ascent expected to remain rather weak and relatively limited convergence along the dryline. However, a very isolated supercell or two cannot be ruled out during the late afternoon and evening, which would pose a large-hail threat. Overnight, most guidance suggests renewed storm development near the ArkLaTex region, likely in response to the southern-stream shortwave trough approaching the region. Storms within this late-night regime would likely be slightly elevated, but moderate buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear may support an isolated hail and/or damaging-gust threat into early Tuesday morning. ..Dean/Weinman.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail is expected to be the main threat, but strong/gusty winds and a tornado or two may also occur. ...Synopsis... A large-scale mid/upper-level trough will cover much of the central/western CONUS through the day. Within the broader trough, multiple belts of stronger flow will impinge upon portions of the southern Plains, lower/mid MS Valley, and Midwest. A strong northern-stream shortwave trough will move quickly northeastward away from the upper Great Lakes during the morning, with multiple lower-amplitude vorticity maxima following in its wake. Meanwhile, a southern-stream mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move from northern Mexico into Texas by afternoon, and towards the lower MS Valley by late evening. A surface cyclone is forecast to move along a frontal boundary from the south-central Plains northeastward toward the mid MS Valley by evening. ...Parts of IL/MO into eastern IA and southern WI... A surface boundary is forecast to move northward as a warm front into parts of eastern IA, northern IL, and perhaps southern WI during the day, before stalling and then moving southeastward as a cold front during the evening. Across the warm sector, modest low-level moisture (dewpoints generally in the mid/upper 50s F) beneath relatively cold temperatures aloft will support MLCAPE increasing into the 1000-1500 J/kg range this afternoon. Some weakening of mid/upper-level flow is expected through the day in the wake of the departing shortwave, but will remain sufficient to support effective shear of 35-45 kt, which is conditionally favorable for organized convection. While a strong elevated storm or two will be possible across WI during the morning, the primary concern is for storm development in the vicinity of the surface front by late afternoon or early evening. Guidance varies regarding the timing of initiation and placement of the surface features, but in general, scattered thunderstorm development is expected from northeast MO/eastern IA into northern IL and southern WI. An initial supercell or two will be possible, though there may be a tendency toward more of a complex or linear mode with time as the front begins to push southeastward. Hail appears to be the most likely hazard at this time, though there will also be some potential for isolated strong/damaging gusts. Some tornado potential could also evolve if a surface-based supercell or two can be sustained. Uncertainties regarding placement/timing of the surface front and longevity of any supercell potential preclude higher probabilities across the region at this time. ...Parts of TX/eastern OK into the Ozarks and lower MS Valley... Relatively rich low-level moisture (with dewpoints increasing through the 60s F) will stream northward through the day across parts of TX, eastern OK, AR, and LA. Thunderstorm development will be possible by late morning into the afternoon along the northern periphery of the deeper returning moisture across parts of LA and perhaps into adjacent portions of southwest MS and southeast TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop the deepening moisture will support preconvective MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection. A few strong multicells and perhaps a supercell or two will be possible, with an attendant threat of hail and locally damaging gusts. Farther west into TX, the diurnal severe threat is more conditional, with large-scale ascent expected to remain rather weak and relatively limited convergence along the dryline. However, a very isolated supercell or two cannot be ruled out during the late afternoon and evening, which would pose a large-hail threat. Overnight, most guidance suggests renewed storm development near the ArkLaTex region, likely in response to the southern-stream shortwave trough approaching the region. Storms within this late-night regime would likely be slightly elevated, but moderate buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear may support an isolated hail and/or damaging-gust threat into early Tuesday morning. ..Dean/Weinman.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail is expected to be the main threat, but strong/gusty winds and a tornado or two may also occur. ...Synopsis... A large-scale mid/upper-level trough will cover much of the central/western CONUS through the day. Within the broader trough, multiple belts of stronger flow will impinge upon portions of the southern Plains, lower/mid MS Valley, and Midwest. A strong northern-stream shortwave trough will move quickly northeastward away from the upper Great Lakes during the morning, with multiple lower-amplitude vorticity maxima following in its wake. Meanwhile, a southern-stream mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move from northern Mexico into Texas by afternoon, and towards the lower MS Valley by late evening. A surface cyclone is forecast to move along a frontal boundary from the south-central Plains northeastward toward the mid MS Valley by evening. ...Parts of IL/MO into eastern IA and southern WI... A surface boundary is forecast to move northward as a warm front into parts of eastern IA, northern IL, and perhaps southern WI during the day, before stalling and then moving southeastward as a cold front during the evening. Across the warm sector, modest low-level moisture (dewpoints generally in the mid/upper 50s F) beneath relatively cold temperatures aloft will support MLCAPE increasing into the 1000-1500 J/kg range this afternoon. Some weakening of mid/upper-level flow is expected through the day in the wake of the departing shortwave, but will remain sufficient to support effective shear of 35-45 kt, which is conditionally favorable for organized convection. While a strong elevated storm or two will be possible across WI during the morning, the primary concern is for storm development in the vicinity of the surface front by late afternoon or early evening. Guidance varies regarding the timing of initiation and placement of the surface features, but in general, scattered thunderstorm development is expected from northeast MO/eastern IA into northern IL and southern WI. An initial supercell or two will be possible, though there may be a tendency toward more of a complex or linear mode with time as the front begins to push southeastward. Hail appears to be the most likely hazard at this time, though there will also be some potential for isolated strong/damaging gusts. Some tornado potential could also evolve if a surface-based supercell or two can be sustained. Uncertainties regarding placement/timing of the surface front and longevity of any supercell potential preclude higher probabilities across the region at this time. ...Parts of TX/eastern OK into the Ozarks and lower MS Valley... Relatively rich low-level moisture (with dewpoints increasing through the 60s F) will stream northward through the day across parts of TX, eastern OK, AR, and LA. Thunderstorm development will be possible by late morning into the afternoon along the northern periphery of the deeper returning moisture across parts of LA and perhaps into adjacent portions of southwest MS and southeast TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop the deepening moisture will support preconvective MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection. A few strong multicells and perhaps a supercell or two will be possible, with an attendant threat of hail and locally damaging gusts. Farther west into TX, the diurnal severe threat is more conditional, with large-scale ascent expected to remain rather weak and relatively limited convergence along the dryline. However, a very isolated supercell or two cannot be ruled out during the late afternoon and evening, which would pose a large-hail threat. Overnight, most guidance suggests renewed storm development near the ArkLaTex region, likely in response to the southern-stream shortwave trough approaching the region. Storms within this late-night regime would likely be slightly elevated, but moderate buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear may support an isolated hail and/or damaging-gust threat into early Tuesday morning. ..Dean/Weinman.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Midlevel westerly flow will continue to weaken across the southern Plains on D2/Tuesday, favoring an overall decrease in dry/breezy downslope flow and fire-weather conditions. Farther north over the central Plains (particularly portions of northern NE), there is some potential for locally dry/breezy conditions to develop during the afternoon, as shallow boundary-layer mixing extends into a belt of strong flow aloft. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible here, the overall threat appears too marginal for an Elevated area at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Midlevel westerly flow will continue to weaken across the southern Plains on D2/Tuesday, favoring an overall decrease in dry/breezy downslope flow and fire-weather conditions. Farther north over the central Plains (particularly portions of northern NE), there is some potential for locally dry/breezy conditions to develop during the afternoon, as shallow boundary-layer mixing extends into a belt of strong flow aloft. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible here, the overall threat appears too marginal for an Elevated area at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Midlevel westerly flow will continue to weaken across the southern Plains on D2/Tuesday, favoring an overall decrease in dry/breezy downslope flow and fire-weather conditions. Farther north over the central Plains (particularly portions of northern NE), there is some potential for locally dry/breezy conditions to develop during the afternoon, as shallow boundary-layer mixing extends into a belt of strong flow aloft. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible here, the overall threat appears too marginal for an Elevated area at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Midlevel westerly flow will continue to weaken across the southern Plains on D2/Tuesday, favoring an overall decrease in dry/breezy downslope flow and fire-weather conditions. Farther north over the central Plains (particularly portions of northern NE), there is some potential for locally dry/breezy conditions to develop during the afternoon, as shallow boundary-layer mixing extends into a belt of strong flow aloft. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible here, the overall threat appears too marginal for an Elevated area at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... Moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the southern High Plains -- along the southern periphery of the primary mid/upper-level jet extending across the central Rockies and adjacent Plains. Related downslope flow off the southern Rockies will result in 15-20 percent minimum RH across the southern High Plains, where a modest surface pressure gradient will yield 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds. Given dry/receptive fuels across the area, low-end elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across parts of eastern NM into West TX. Farther north, a broad/weak elongated surface low will drift slowly northeastward from the central/southern Plains into the Midwest. On the backside of this feature, locally dry/breezy post-frontal conditions could support a brief period of elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of KS, where fuels have become increasingly dry. However, these conditions appear too brief/localized for an Elevated area at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... Moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the southern High Plains -- along the southern periphery of the primary mid/upper-level jet extending across the central Rockies and adjacent Plains. Related downslope flow off the southern Rockies will result in 15-20 percent minimum RH across the southern High Plains, where a modest surface pressure gradient will yield 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds. Given dry/receptive fuels across the area, low-end elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across parts of eastern NM into West TX. Farther north, a broad/weak elongated surface low will drift slowly northeastward from the central/southern Plains into the Midwest. On the backside of this feature, locally dry/breezy post-frontal conditions could support a brief period of elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of KS, where fuels have become increasingly dry. However, these conditions appear too brief/localized for an Elevated area at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... Moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the southern High Plains -- along the southern periphery of the primary mid/upper-level jet extending across the central Rockies and adjacent Plains. Related downslope flow off the southern Rockies will result in 15-20 percent minimum RH across the southern High Plains, where a modest surface pressure gradient will yield 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds. Given dry/receptive fuels across the area, low-end elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across parts of eastern NM into West TX. Farther north, a broad/weak elongated surface low will drift slowly northeastward from the central/southern Plains into the Midwest. On the backside of this feature, locally dry/breezy post-frontal conditions could support a brief period of elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of KS, where fuels have become increasingly dry. However, these conditions appear too brief/localized for an Elevated area at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more