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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... Moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the southern High Plains -- along the southern periphery of the primary mid/upper-level jet extending across the central Rockies and adjacent Plains. Related downslope flow off the southern Rockies will result in 15-20 percent minimum RH across the southern High Plains, where a modest surface pressure gradient will yield 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds. Given dry/receptive fuels across the area, low-end elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across parts of eastern NM into West TX. Farther north, a broad/weak elongated surface low will drift slowly northeastward from the central/southern Plains into the Midwest. On the backside of this feature, locally dry/breezy post-frontal conditions could support a brief period of elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of KS, where fuels have become increasingly dry. However, these conditions appear too brief/localized for an Elevated area at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0187 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 0187 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0512 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Areas affected...Parts of northwest Wisconsin Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 032312Z - 040115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A strong storm or two capable of locally damaging gusts cannot be ruled out during the next few hours across parts of northwest Wisconsin. DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from MPX indicates widely scattered thunderstorms streaming northward across northwest Wisconsin, largely aided by strong low-level warm-air advection beneath the left exit region of a robust upper-level jet streak. Given the focused synoptic and mesoscale ascent, this activity will likely continue for the next few hours, before a cold front sweeps eastward across the area in the 00-02Z time frame. Prior to the frontal passage, around 50 kt of effective shear (characterized by a long/mostly straight hodograph) could support a marginal supercell or two capable of locally damaging winds. Downward momentum transfer to the surface will be aided by an influx of steep low-level lapse rates amid 40-50 kt of flow in the lowest 1 km AGL (per ARX VWP data). However, limited boundary-layer moisture and related surface-based instability should temper the overall severe risk. ..Weinman/Darrow.. 03/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 45059237 45469255 45989256 46509236 46799197 46879144 46709069 46429018 45518994 44869015 44479070 44369131 44479186 45059237 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely for the remainder of tonight. ...Northern WI into Upper MI... Thunderstorms are ongoing early this evening across northwest WI, along and ahead of a cold front attendant to a deep surface cyclone centered near the ND/MN/MB border. Strong ascent in combination with steep low/midlevel lapse rates across the region has compensated for generally limited low-level moisture, though buoyancy remains weak, with MUCAPE generally less than 500 J/kg. Small hail and gusty winds will remain possible with these storms as they move across northern WI into Upper MI and over Lake Superior through the evening. See MCD 187 for more information. ...Florida... A downward trend in storm coverage/intensity has been noted over Florida this evening, though an ongoing storm cluster west of Lake Okeechobee could pose a threat for small hail and gusty winds for as long as it persists. Substantial earlier convective overturning over much of the Peninsula and the loss of diurnal heating should contribute to a continued overall weakening trend with time tonight. ..Dean.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely for the remainder of tonight. ...Northern WI into Upper MI... Thunderstorms are ongoing early this evening across northwest WI, along and ahead of a cold front attendant to a deep surface cyclone centered near the ND/MN/MB border. Strong ascent in combination with steep low/midlevel lapse rates across the region has compensated for generally limited low-level moisture, though buoyancy remains weak, with MUCAPE generally less than 500 J/kg. Small hail and gusty winds will remain possible with these storms as they move across northern WI into Upper MI and over Lake Superior through the evening. See MCD 187 for more information. ...Florida... A downward trend in storm coverage/intensity has been noted over Florida this evening, though an ongoing storm cluster west of Lake Okeechobee could pose a threat for small hail and gusty winds for as long as it persists. Substantial earlier convective overturning over much of the Peninsula and the loss of diurnal heating should contribute to a continued overall weakening trend with time tonight. ..Dean.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely for the remainder of tonight. ...Northern WI into Upper MI... Thunderstorms are ongoing early this evening across northwest WI, along and ahead of a cold front attendant to a deep surface cyclone centered near the ND/MN/MB border. Strong ascent in combination with steep low/midlevel lapse rates across the region has compensated for generally limited low-level moisture, though buoyancy remains weak, with MUCAPE generally less than 500 J/kg. Small hail and gusty winds will remain possible with these storms as they move across northern WI into Upper MI and over Lake Superior through the evening. See MCD 187 for more information. ...Florida... A downward trend in storm coverage/intensity has been noted over Florida this evening, though an ongoing storm cluster west of Lake Okeechobee could pose a threat for small hail and gusty winds for as long as it persists. Substantial earlier convective overturning over much of the Peninsula and the loss of diurnal heating should contribute to a continued overall weakening trend with time tonight. ..Dean.. 03/04/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Mar 3 23:14:02 UTC 2024.

MD 0187 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 0187 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0512 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Areas affected...Parts of northwest Wisconsin Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 032312Z - 040115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A strong storm or two capable of locally damaging gusts cannot be ruled out during the next few hours across parts of northwest Wisconsin. DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from MPX indicates widely scattered thunderstorms streaming northward across northwest Wisconsin, largely aided by strong low-level warm-air advection beneath the left exit region of a robust upper-level jet streak. Given the focused synoptic and mesoscale ascent, this activity will likely continue for the next few hours, before a cold front sweeps eastward across the area in the 00-02Z time frame. Prior to the frontal passage, around 50 kt of effective shear (characterized by a long/mostly straight hodograph) could support a marginal supercell or two capable of locally damaging winds. Downward momentum transfer to the surface will be aided by an influx of steep low-level lapse rates amid 40-50 kt of flow in the lowest 1 km AGL (per ARX VWP data). However, limited boundary-layer moisture and related surface-based instability should temper the overall severe risk. ..Weinman/Darrow.. 03/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 45059237 45469255 45989256 46509236 46799197 46879144 46709069 46429018 45518994 44869015 44479070 44369131 44479186 45059237 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Mar 3 22:36:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z A relatively zonal upper pattern will encourage locally dry and windy conditions across the Plains states Tuesday-Wednesday, before dry and windy conditions increase across the southern High Plains later this week in advance of an approaching mid-level trough. Medium range guidance members show some potential for Critical overlapping winds/RH somewhere from the Texas/New Mexico border to the Rio Grande during the Thursday-Saturday period. However, the medium range members vary too much in placement and timing of the aforementioned Critical winds/RH for Critical probabilities to be introduced at this time. Nonetheless, prolonged dry conditions are expected to continue through the week across the southern High Plains, with no appreciable precipitation accumulations expected. As such, Critical probabilities or fire weather highlights will likely be introduced at some point later this week across the southern High Plains once guidance members show better agreement in the placement and timing of conditions favorable for wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 03/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z A relatively zonal upper pattern will encourage locally dry and windy conditions across the Plains states Tuesday-Wednesday, before dry and windy conditions increase across the southern High Plains later this week in advance of an approaching mid-level trough. Medium range guidance members show some potential for Critical overlapping winds/RH somewhere from the Texas/New Mexico border to the Rio Grande during the Thursday-Saturday period. However, the medium range members vary too much in placement and timing of the aforementioned Critical winds/RH for Critical probabilities to be introduced at this time. Nonetheless, prolonged dry conditions are expected to continue through the week across the southern High Plains, with no appreciable precipitation accumulations expected. As such, Critical probabilities or fire weather highlights will likely be introduced at some point later this week across the southern High Plains once guidance members show better agreement in the placement and timing of conditions favorable for wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 03/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z A relatively zonal upper pattern will encourage locally dry and windy conditions across the Plains states Tuesday-Wednesday, before dry and windy conditions increase across the southern High Plains later this week in advance of an approaching mid-level trough. Medium range guidance members show some potential for Critical overlapping winds/RH somewhere from the Texas/New Mexico border to the Rio Grande during the Thursday-Saturday period. However, the medium range members vary too much in placement and timing of the aforementioned Critical winds/RH for Critical probabilities to be introduced at this time. Nonetheless, prolonged dry conditions are expected to continue through the week across the southern High Plains, with no appreciable precipitation accumulations expected. As such, Critical probabilities or fire weather highlights will likely be introduced at some point later this week across the southern High Plains once guidance members show better agreement in the placement and timing of conditions favorable for wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 03/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z A relatively zonal upper pattern will encourage locally dry and windy conditions across the Plains states Tuesday-Wednesday, before dry and windy conditions increase across the southern High Plains later this week in advance of an approaching mid-level trough. Medium range guidance members show some potential for Critical overlapping winds/RH somewhere from the Texas/New Mexico border to the Rio Grande during the Thursday-Saturday period. However, the medium range members vary too much in placement and timing of the aforementioned Critical winds/RH for Critical probabilities to be introduced at this time. Nonetheless, prolonged dry conditions are expected to continue through the week across the southern High Plains, with no appreciable precipitation accumulations expected. As such, Critical probabilities or fire weather highlights will likely be introduced at some point later this week across the southern High Plains once guidance members show better agreement in the placement and timing of conditions favorable for wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 03/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z A relatively zonal upper pattern will encourage locally dry and windy conditions across the Plains states Tuesday-Wednesday, before dry and windy conditions increase across the southern High Plains later this week in advance of an approaching mid-level trough. Medium range guidance members show some potential for Critical overlapping winds/RH somewhere from the Texas/New Mexico border to the Rio Grande during the Thursday-Saturday period. However, the medium range members vary too much in placement and timing of the aforementioned Critical winds/RH for Critical probabilities to be introduced at this time. Nonetheless, prolonged dry conditions are expected to continue through the week across the southern High Plains, with no appreciable precipitation accumulations expected. As such, Critical probabilities or fire weather highlights will likely be introduced at some point later this week across the southern High Plains once guidance members show better agreement in the placement and timing of conditions favorable for wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 03/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0185 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0185 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Areas affected...North Dakota Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 031701Z - 032100Z SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall rates between 1-2 inches/hour should continue through late morning/mid afternoon across portions of central to northern North Dakota. DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, surface observations have reported visibility reductions down to 1/2 to at times 1/4 mile with corroborating observations from regional web cams. These visibility reductions are most likely attributable to heavy snowfall rates rather than blowing snow given the weak winds (generally less than 10 knots) and warm temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s. Ascent through a deep layer is evident over central/northern ND owing to upper-level diffluence ahead of an upper trough axis overlaid with a plume of isentropic ascent within the 850-700 mb layer. This combination of synoptic and more focused mesoscale ascent should continue to promote widespread moderate snowfall across central/northern ND over the next several hours with heavier rates up to 1-2 in/hour within more organized snow bands. Lightning flashes and cooling cloud-top temperatures have been observed over the past hour within this zone of strong ascent, indicating that weak convection may locally augment snowfall rates as well. ..Moore.. 03/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 47299952 46959961 46680002 46470065 46500123 47200227 47900292 48620336 48890344 49060339 49090296 49070213 49070065 49070029 48760014 48419997 47859972 47299952 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida this afternoon and early evening. Isolated hail is expected to be the primary threat, though locally gusty winds may also occur. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previously issued convective outlook. ..Smith.. 03/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024/ ...FL... Morning water vapor loop shows a southern-stream shortwave trough moving across the eastern Gulf of Mexico into FL. Warm and moist low-level conditions are in place across FL today, with sufficient insolation to lead to afternoon temperatures well into the 80sF. A combination of weak large-scale ascent and convergence along sea-breeze boundaries will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg and weak wind fields in the lower 3 km, but 30+ westerly knot flow above 5km. This should support a few storms becoming organized multicells or transient supercells - capable of hail and gusty winds. At this time, coverage of the stronger cells appears limited so will maintain the ongoing MRGL risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida this afternoon and early evening. Isolated hail is expected to be the primary threat, though locally gusty winds may also occur. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previously issued convective outlook. ..Smith.. 03/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024/ ...FL... Morning water vapor loop shows a southern-stream shortwave trough moving across the eastern Gulf of Mexico into FL. Warm and moist low-level conditions are in place across FL today, with sufficient insolation to lead to afternoon temperatures well into the 80sF. A combination of weak large-scale ascent and convergence along sea-breeze boundaries will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg and weak wind fields in the lower 3 km, but 30+ westerly knot flow above 5km. This should support a few storms becoming organized multicells or transient supercells - capable of hail and gusty winds. At this time, coverage of the stronger cells appears limited so will maintain the ongoing MRGL risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida this afternoon and early evening. Isolated hail is expected to be the primary threat, though locally gusty winds may also occur. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previously issued convective outlook. ..Smith.. 03/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024/ ...FL... Morning water vapor loop shows a southern-stream shortwave trough moving across the eastern Gulf of Mexico into FL. Warm and moist low-level conditions are in place across FL today, with sufficient insolation to lead to afternoon temperatures well into the 80sF. A combination of weak large-scale ascent and convergence along sea-breeze boundaries will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg and weak wind fields in the lower 3 km, but 30+ westerly knot flow above 5km. This should support a few storms becoming organized multicells or transient supercells - capable of hail and gusty winds. At this time, coverage of the stronger cells appears limited so will maintain the ongoing MRGL risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida this afternoon and early evening. Isolated hail is expected to be the primary threat, though locally gusty winds may also occur. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previously issued convective outlook. ..Smith.. 03/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024/ ...FL... Morning water vapor loop shows a southern-stream shortwave trough moving across the eastern Gulf of Mexico into FL. Warm and moist low-level conditions are in place across FL today, with sufficient insolation to lead to afternoon temperatures well into the 80sF. A combination of weak large-scale ascent and convergence along sea-breeze boundaries will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg and weak wind fields in the lower 3 km, but 30+ westerly knot flow above 5km. This should support a few storms becoming organized multicells or transient supercells - capable of hail and gusty winds. At this time, coverage of the stronger cells appears limited so will maintain the ongoing MRGL risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida this afternoon and early evening. Isolated hail is expected to be the primary threat, though locally gusty winds may also occur. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previously issued convective outlook. ..Smith.. 03/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024/ ...FL... Morning water vapor loop shows a southern-stream shortwave trough moving across the eastern Gulf of Mexico into FL. Warm and moist low-level conditions are in place across FL today, with sufficient insolation to lead to afternoon temperatures well into the 80sF. A combination of weak large-scale ascent and convergence along sea-breeze boundaries will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg and weak wind fields in the lower 3 km, but 30+ westerly knot flow above 5km. This should support a few storms becoming organized multicells or transient supercells - capable of hail and gusty winds. At this time, coverage of the stronger cells appears limited so will maintain the ongoing MRGL risk. Read more