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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER A LARGE AREA FROM EAST TEXAS INTO MOST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail is expected to be the main threat, but strong/gusty winds and even a tornado may also occur. ...East TX/LA/Western MS Today... Moderately strong southern-stream mid-level flow is present today across the southern states, with several weak perturbations affecting the area. A warm and moist surface air mass is in place across east TX into LA, where dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s will yield afternoon MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Weak low-level warm advection is expected to result in increasing thunderstorm development this morning through the afternoon as storms spread eastward toward southwest MS. Deep-layer shear is sufficient for at least transient supercell structures, but relatively weak low-level winds suggest the main threats will be hail and gusty winds with the strongest cells. ...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL... A strong surface cold front is sagging southeastward across IA this morning into a marginally moist and unstable air mass. All 12z model guidance agrees on the development of showers and thunderstorms along the front by early afternoon, although many solutions suggest most of the activity will be behind the front and slightly elevated. Nevertheless, cool temperatures aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote hail in the stronger cores. Storms that can form and persist ahead of the front would have some marginal concern for gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado as well. ...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley... Morning model guidance is quite diverse in the development of thunderstorms across this region, with low confidence in any particular area. Will maintain the ongoing MRGL area as a conditional risk if storms can form - mainly due to unseasonably warm and moist conditions and sufficient CAPE for some risk of hail. However, considerably uncertainty exists. ..Hart/Moore.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER A LARGE AREA FROM EAST TEXAS INTO MOST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail is expected to be the main threat, but strong/gusty winds and even a tornado may also occur. ...East TX/LA/Western MS Today... Moderately strong southern-stream mid-level flow is present today across the southern states, with several weak perturbations affecting the area. A warm and moist surface air mass is in place across east TX into LA, where dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s will yield afternoon MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Weak low-level warm advection is expected to result in increasing thunderstorm development this morning through the afternoon as storms spread eastward toward southwest MS. Deep-layer shear is sufficient for at least transient supercell structures, but relatively weak low-level winds suggest the main threats will be hail and gusty winds with the strongest cells. ...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL... A strong surface cold front is sagging southeastward across IA this morning into a marginally moist and unstable air mass. All 12z model guidance agrees on the development of showers and thunderstorms along the front by early afternoon, although many solutions suggest most of the activity will be behind the front and slightly elevated. Nevertheless, cool temperatures aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote hail in the stronger cores. Storms that can form and persist ahead of the front would have some marginal concern for gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado as well. ...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley... Morning model guidance is quite diverse in the development of thunderstorms across this region, with low confidence in any particular area. Will maintain the ongoing MRGL area as a conditional risk if storms can form - mainly due to unseasonably warm and moist conditions and sufficient CAPE for some risk of hail. However, considerably uncertainty exists. ..Hart/Moore.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER A LARGE AREA FROM EAST TEXAS INTO MOST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail is expected to be the main threat, but strong/gusty winds and even a tornado may also occur. ...East TX/LA/Western MS Today... Moderately strong southern-stream mid-level flow is present today across the southern states, with several weak perturbations affecting the area. A warm and moist surface air mass is in place across east TX into LA, where dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s will yield afternoon MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Weak low-level warm advection is expected to result in increasing thunderstorm development this morning through the afternoon as storms spread eastward toward southwest MS. Deep-layer shear is sufficient for at least transient supercell structures, but relatively weak low-level winds suggest the main threats will be hail and gusty winds with the strongest cells. ...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL... A strong surface cold front is sagging southeastward across IA this morning into a marginally moist and unstable air mass. All 12z model guidance agrees on the development of showers and thunderstorms along the front by early afternoon, although many solutions suggest most of the activity will be behind the front and slightly elevated. Nevertheless, cool temperatures aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote hail in the stronger cores. Storms that can form and persist ahead of the front would have some marginal concern for gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado as well. ...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley... Morning model guidance is quite diverse in the development of thunderstorms across this region, with low confidence in any particular area. Will maintain the ongoing MRGL area as a conditional risk if storms can form - mainly due to unseasonably warm and moist conditions and sufficient CAPE for some risk of hail. However, considerably uncertainty exists. ..Hart/Moore.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER A LARGE AREA FROM EAST TEXAS INTO MOST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail is expected to be the main threat, but strong/gusty winds and even a tornado may also occur. ...East TX/LA/Western MS Today... Moderately strong southern-stream mid-level flow is present today across the southern states, with several weak perturbations affecting the area. A warm and moist surface air mass is in place across east TX into LA, where dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s will yield afternoon MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Weak low-level warm advection is expected to result in increasing thunderstorm development this morning through the afternoon as storms spread eastward toward southwest MS. Deep-layer shear is sufficient for at least transient supercell structures, but relatively weak low-level winds suggest the main threats will be hail and gusty winds with the strongest cells. ...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL... A strong surface cold front is sagging southeastward across IA this morning into a marginally moist and unstable air mass. All 12z model guidance agrees on the development of showers and thunderstorms along the front by early afternoon, although many solutions suggest most of the activity will be behind the front and slightly elevated. Nevertheless, cool temperatures aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote hail in the stronger cores. Storms that can form and persist ahead of the front would have some marginal concern for gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado as well. ...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley... Morning model guidance is quite diverse in the development of thunderstorms across this region, with low confidence in any particular area. Will maintain the ongoing MRGL area as a conditional risk if storms can form - mainly due to unseasonably warm and moist conditions and sufficient CAPE for some risk of hail. However, considerably uncertainty exists. ..Hart/Moore.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER A LARGE AREA FROM EAST TEXAS INTO MOST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail is expected to be the main threat, but strong/gusty winds and even a tornado may also occur. ...East TX/LA/Western MS Today... Moderately strong southern-stream mid-level flow is present today across the southern states, with several weak perturbations affecting the area. A warm and moist surface air mass is in place across east TX into LA, where dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s will yield afternoon MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Weak low-level warm advection is expected to result in increasing thunderstorm development this morning through the afternoon as storms spread eastward toward southwest MS. Deep-layer shear is sufficient for at least transient supercell structures, but relatively weak low-level winds suggest the main threats will be hail and gusty winds with the strongest cells. ...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL... A strong surface cold front is sagging southeastward across IA this morning into a marginally moist and unstable air mass. All 12z model guidance agrees on the development of showers and thunderstorms along the front by early afternoon, although many solutions suggest most of the activity will be behind the front and slightly elevated. Nevertheless, cool temperatures aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote hail in the stronger cores. Storms that can form and persist ahead of the front would have some marginal concern for gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado as well. ...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley... Morning model guidance is quite diverse in the development of thunderstorms across this region, with low confidence in any particular area. Will maintain the ongoing MRGL area as a conditional risk if storms can form - mainly due to unseasonably warm and moist conditions and sufficient CAPE for some risk of hail. However, considerably uncertainty exists. ..Hart/Moore.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER A LARGE AREA FROM EAST TEXAS INTO MOST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail is expected to be the main threat, but strong/gusty winds and even a tornado may also occur. ...East TX/LA/Western MS Today... Moderately strong southern-stream mid-level flow is present today across the southern states, with several weak perturbations affecting the area. A warm and moist surface air mass is in place across east TX into LA, where dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s will yield afternoon MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Weak low-level warm advection is expected to result in increasing thunderstorm development this morning through the afternoon as storms spread eastward toward southwest MS. Deep-layer shear is sufficient for at least transient supercell structures, but relatively weak low-level winds suggest the main threats will be hail and gusty winds with the strongest cells. ...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL... A strong surface cold front is sagging southeastward across IA this morning into a marginally moist and unstable air mass. All 12z model guidance agrees on the development of showers and thunderstorms along the front by early afternoon, although many solutions suggest most of the activity will be behind the front and slightly elevated. Nevertheless, cool temperatures aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote hail in the stronger cores. Storms that can form and persist ahead of the front would have some marginal concern for gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado as well. ...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley... Morning model guidance is quite diverse in the development of thunderstorms across this region, with low confidence in any particular area. Will maintain the ongoing MRGL area as a conditional risk if storms can form - mainly due to unseasonably warm and moist conditions and sufficient CAPE for some risk of hail. However, considerably uncertainty exists. ..Hart/Moore.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER A LARGE AREA FROM EAST TEXAS INTO MOST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail is expected to be the main threat, but strong/gusty winds and even a tornado may also occur. ...East TX/LA/Western MS Today... Moderately strong southern-stream mid-level flow is present today across the southern states, with several weak perturbations affecting the area. A warm and moist surface air mass is in place across east TX into LA, where dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s will yield afternoon MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Weak low-level warm advection is expected to result in increasing thunderstorm development this morning through the afternoon as storms spread eastward toward southwest MS. Deep-layer shear is sufficient for at least transient supercell structures, but relatively weak low-level winds suggest the main threats will be hail and gusty winds with the strongest cells. ...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL... A strong surface cold front is sagging southeastward across IA this morning into a marginally moist and unstable air mass. All 12z model guidance agrees on the development of showers and thunderstorms along the front by early afternoon, although many solutions suggest most of the activity will be behind the front and slightly elevated. Nevertheless, cool temperatures aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote hail in the stronger cores. Storms that can form and persist ahead of the front would have some marginal concern for gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado as well. ...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley... Morning model guidance is quite diverse in the development of thunderstorms across this region, with low confidence in any particular area. Will maintain the ongoing MRGL area as a conditional risk if storms can form - mainly due to unseasonably warm and moist conditions and sufficient CAPE for some risk of hail. However, considerably uncertainty exists. ..Hart/Moore.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER A LARGE AREA FROM EAST TEXAS INTO MOST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail is expected to be the main threat, but strong/gusty winds and even a tornado may also occur. ...East TX/LA/Western MS Today... Moderately strong southern-stream mid-level flow is present today across the southern states, with several weak perturbations affecting the area. A warm and moist surface air mass is in place across east TX into LA, where dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s will yield afternoon MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Weak low-level warm advection is expected to result in increasing thunderstorm development this morning through the afternoon as storms spread eastward toward southwest MS. Deep-layer shear is sufficient for at least transient supercell structures, but relatively weak low-level winds suggest the main threats will be hail and gusty winds with the strongest cells. ...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL... A strong surface cold front is sagging southeastward across IA this morning into a marginally moist and unstable air mass. All 12z model guidance agrees on the development of showers and thunderstorms along the front by early afternoon, although many solutions suggest most of the activity will be behind the front and slightly elevated. Nevertheless, cool temperatures aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote hail in the stronger cores. Storms that can form and persist ahead of the front would have some marginal concern for gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado as well. ...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley... Morning model guidance is quite diverse in the development of thunderstorms across this region, with low confidence in any particular area. Will maintain the ongoing MRGL area as a conditional risk if storms can form - mainly due to unseasonably warm and moist conditions and sufficient CAPE for some risk of hail. However, considerably uncertainty exists. ..Hart/Moore.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER A LARGE AREA FROM EAST TEXAS INTO MOST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail is expected to be the main threat, but strong/gusty winds and even a tornado may also occur. ...East TX/LA/Western MS Today... Moderately strong southern-stream mid-level flow is present today across the southern states, with several weak perturbations affecting the area. A warm and moist surface air mass is in place across east TX into LA, where dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s will yield afternoon MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Weak low-level warm advection is expected to result in increasing thunderstorm development this morning through the afternoon as storms spread eastward toward southwest MS. Deep-layer shear is sufficient for at least transient supercell structures, but relatively weak low-level winds suggest the main threats will be hail and gusty winds with the strongest cells. ...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL... A strong surface cold front is sagging southeastward across IA this morning into a marginally moist and unstable air mass. All 12z model guidance agrees on the development of showers and thunderstorms along the front by early afternoon, although many solutions suggest most of the activity will be behind the front and slightly elevated. Nevertheless, cool temperatures aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote hail in the stronger cores. Storms that can form and persist ahead of the front would have some marginal concern for gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado as well. ...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley... Morning model guidance is quite diverse in the development of thunderstorms across this region, with low confidence in any particular area. Will maintain the ongoing MRGL area as a conditional risk if storms can form - mainly due to unseasonably warm and moist conditions and sufficient CAPE for some risk of hail. However, considerably uncertainty exists. ..Hart/Moore.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0706 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO TEXAS...AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail is expected to be the main threat, but strong/gusty winds and even a tornado may also occur. ...Synopsis... A broad area of cyclonic flow aloft will remain in place over the western two-thirds of the country, and is expected to gradually expand eastward with time. As the upper troughing expands, a surface baroclinic zone extending from the Texas Panhandle to the Upper Great Lakes will gradually shift southeastward as a cold front, particularly during the second half of the period. Along and ahead of this boundary, convection -- and isolated severe weather -- is expected to evolve. ...Southern Upper Great Lakes vicinity southwestward to Texas... While weak capping should prevail across the southern Plains today, mixing in the vicinity of a weak dryline over central Texas could allow an isolated storm or two to develop, and possibly persist into the evening. Given steep lapse rates aloft and deep mixed layer, hail and/or wind exceeding severe levels could occur, in this highly conditional scenario. More likely development of showers and thunderstorms is expected along the surface baroclinic zone that extends northward into the Upper Great Lakes region, perhaps beginning late this afternoon across northern portions of the risk area and then expanding southward along the cold front with time. With moderately strong flow aloft atop the frontal zone across northern portions of the risk area, a couple of stronger/rotating storms may evolve. Though hail is expected to be the main risk given steep mid-level lapse rates, a locally strong gust or two, or brief tornado, would also be possible if a sustained, rotating storm can develop. As storms develop south-southwestward into the evening and overnight, into a region of weaker shear but steep lapse rates, potential for hail with a few of the strongest storms is expected. At this time, any focused areas for greater severe potential remain difficult to discern, and thus will maintain the broad MRGL risk area this forecast. ...Lower Mississippi Valley vicinity... Weak QG ascent is forecast to spread into Louisiana and adjacent Mississippi this afternoon and into this evening, as somewhat ill-defined/weak cyclonic disturbances in the southern-stream flow move across northern Mexico and Texas this morning, and begin affecting the Lower Mississippi Valley area. A gradual increase in convection through the afternoon is expected, as weak destabilization of the moist boundary layer occurs. Some increase in mid-level west-southwesterly flow with time will occur across this area, as the upper disturbance(s) approach, providing ample shear for a few stronger storms to potentially evolve. Hail would likely remain the primary severe risk with one or two of the strongest storms, though a stronger wind gust or even a brief tornado cannot be ruled out given weakly veering flow with height, and the moist boundary layer supporting surface-based updrafts. ..Goss/Broyles.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0706 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO TEXAS...AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail is expected to be the main threat, but strong/gusty winds and even a tornado may also occur. ...Synopsis... A broad area of cyclonic flow aloft will remain in place over the western two-thirds of the country, and is expected to gradually expand eastward with time. As the upper troughing expands, a surface baroclinic zone extending from the Texas Panhandle to the Upper Great Lakes will gradually shift southeastward as a cold front, particularly during the second half of the period. Along and ahead of this boundary, convection -- and isolated severe weather -- is expected to evolve. ...Southern Upper Great Lakes vicinity southwestward to Texas... While weak capping should prevail across the southern Plains today, mixing in the vicinity of a weak dryline over central Texas could allow an isolated storm or two to develop, and possibly persist into the evening. Given steep lapse rates aloft and deep mixed layer, hail and/or wind exceeding severe levels could occur, in this highly conditional scenario. More likely development of showers and thunderstorms is expected along the surface baroclinic zone that extends northward into the Upper Great Lakes region, perhaps beginning late this afternoon across northern portions of the risk area and then expanding southward along the cold front with time. With moderately strong flow aloft atop the frontal zone across northern portions of the risk area, a couple of stronger/rotating storms may evolve. Though hail is expected to be the main risk given steep mid-level lapse rates, a locally strong gust or two, or brief tornado, would also be possible if a sustained, rotating storm can develop. As storms develop south-southwestward into the evening and overnight, into a region of weaker shear but steep lapse rates, potential for hail with a few of the strongest storms is expected. At this time, any focused areas for greater severe potential remain difficult to discern, and thus will maintain the broad MRGL risk area this forecast. ...Lower Mississippi Valley vicinity... Weak QG ascent is forecast to spread into Louisiana and adjacent Mississippi this afternoon and into this evening, as somewhat ill-defined/weak cyclonic disturbances in the southern-stream flow move across northern Mexico and Texas this morning, and begin affecting the Lower Mississippi Valley area. A gradual increase in convection through the afternoon is expected, as weak destabilization of the moist boundary layer occurs. Some increase in mid-level west-southwesterly flow with time will occur across this area, as the upper disturbance(s) approach, providing ample shear for a few stronger storms to potentially evolve. Hail would likely remain the primary severe risk with one or two of the strongest storms, though a stronger wind gust or even a brief tornado cannot be ruled out given weakly veering flow with height, and the moist boundary layer supporting surface-based updrafts. ..Goss/Broyles.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0706 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO TEXAS...AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail is expected to be the main threat, but strong/gusty winds and even a tornado may also occur. ...Synopsis... A broad area of cyclonic flow aloft will remain in place over the western two-thirds of the country, and is expected to gradually expand eastward with time. As the upper troughing expands, a surface baroclinic zone extending from the Texas Panhandle to the Upper Great Lakes will gradually shift southeastward as a cold front, particularly during the second half of the period. Along and ahead of this boundary, convection -- and isolated severe weather -- is expected to evolve. ...Southern Upper Great Lakes vicinity southwestward to Texas... While weak capping should prevail across the southern Plains today, mixing in the vicinity of a weak dryline over central Texas could allow an isolated storm or two to develop, and possibly persist into the evening. Given steep lapse rates aloft and deep mixed layer, hail and/or wind exceeding severe levels could occur, in this highly conditional scenario. More likely development of showers and thunderstorms is expected along the surface baroclinic zone that extends northward into the Upper Great Lakes region, perhaps beginning late this afternoon across northern portions of the risk area and then expanding southward along the cold front with time. With moderately strong flow aloft atop the frontal zone across northern portions of the risk area, a couple of stronger/rotating storms may evolve. Though hail is expected to be the main risk given steep mid-level lapse rates, a locally strong gust or two, or brief tornado, would also be possible if a sustained, rotating storm can develop. As storms develop south-southwestward into the evening and overnight, into a region of weaker shear but steep lapse rates, potential for hail with a few of the strongest storms is expected. At this time, any focused areas for greater severe potential remain difficult to discern, and thus will maintain the broad MRGL risk area this forecast. ...Lower Mississippi Valley vicinity... Weak QG ascent is forecast to spread into Louisiana and adjacent Mississippi this afternoon and into this evening, as somewhat ill-defined/weak cyclonic disturbances in the southern-stream flow move across northern Mexico and Texas this morning, and begin affecting the Lower Mississippi Valley area. A gradual increase in convection through the afternoon is expected, as weak destabilization of the moist boundary layer occurs. Some increase in mid-level west-southwesterly flow with time will occur across this area, as the upper disturbance(s) approach, providing ample shear for a few stronger storms to potentially evolve. Hail would likely remain the primary severe risk with one or two of the strongest storms, though a stronger wind gust or even a brief tornado cannot be ruled out given weakly veering flow with height, and the moist boundary layer supporting surface-based updrafts. ..Goss/Broyles.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0706 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO TEXAS...AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail is expected to be the main threat, but strong/gusty winds and even a tornado may also occur. ...Synopsis... A broad area of cyclonic flow aloft will remain in place over the western two-thirds of the country, and is expected to gradually expand eastward with time. As the upper troughing expands, a surface baroclinic zone extending from the Texas Panhandle to the Upper Great Lakes will gradually shift southeastward as a cold front, particularly during the second half of the period. Along and ahead of this boundary, convection -- and isolated severe weather -- is expected to evolve. ...Southern Upper Great Lakes vicinity southwestward to Texas... While weak capping should prevail across the southern Plains today, mixing in the vicinity of a weak dryline over central Texas could allow an isolated storm or two to develop, and possibly persist into the evening. Given steep lapse rates aloft and deep mixed layer, hail and/or wind exceeding severe levels could occur, in this highly conditional scenario. More likely development of showers and thunderstorms is expected along the surface baroclinic zone that extends northward into the Upper Great Lakes region, perhaps beginning late this afternoon across northern portions of the risk area and then expanding southward along the cold front with time. With moderately strong flow aloft atop the frontal zone across northern portions of the risk area, a couple of stronger/rotating storms may evolve. Though hail is expected to be the main risk given steep mid-level lapse rates, a locally strong gust or two, or brief tornado, would also be possible if a sustained, rotating storm can develop. As storms develop south-southwestward into the evening and overnight, into a region of weaker shear but steep lapse rates, potential for hail with a few of the strongest storms is expected. At this time, any focused areas for greater severe potential remain difficult to discern, and thus will maintain the broad MRGL risk area this forecast. ...Lower Mississippi Valley vicinity... Weak QG ascent is forecast to spread into Louisiana and adjacent Mississippi this afternoon and into this evening, as somewhat ill-defined/weak cyclonic disturbances in the southern-stream flow move across northern Mexico and Texas this morning, and begin affecting the Lower Mississippi Valley area. A gradual increase in convection through the afternoon is expected, as weak destabilization of the moist boundary layer occurs. Some increase in mid-level west-southwesterly flow with time will occur across this area, as the upper disturbance(s) approach, providing ample shear for a few stronger storms to potentially evolve. Hail would likely remain the primary severe risk with one or two of the strongest storms, though a stronger wind gust or even a brief tornado cannot be ruled out given weakly veering flow with height, and the moist boundary layer supporting surface-based updrafts. ..Goss/Broyles.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0706 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO TEXAS...AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail is expected to be the main threat, but strong/gusty winds and even a tornado may also occur. ...Synopsis... A broad area of cyclonic flow aloft will remain in place over the western two-thirds of the country, and is expected to gradually expand eastward with time. As the upper troughing expands, a surface baroclinic zone extending from the Texas Panhandle to the Upper Great Lakes will gradually shift southeastward as a cold front, particularly during the second half of the period. Along and ahead of this boundary, convection -- and isolated severe weather -- is expected to evolve. ...Southern Upper Great Lakes vicinity southwestward to Texas... While weak capping should prevail across the southern Plains today, mixing in the vicinity of a weak dryline over central Texas could allow an isolated storm or two to develop, and possibly persist into the evening. Given steep lapse rates aloft and deep mixed layer, hail and/or wind exceeding severe levels could occur, in this highly conditional scenario. More likely development of showers and thunderstorms is expected along the surface baroclinic zone that extends northward into the Upper Great Lakes region, perhaps beginning late this afternoon across northern portions of the risk area and then expanding southward along the cold front with time. With moderately strong flow aloft atop the frontal zone across northern portions of the risk area, a couple of stronger/rotating storms may evolve. Though hail is expected to be the main risk given steep mid-level lapse rates, a locally strong gust or two, or brief tornado, would also be possible if a sustained, rotating storm can develop. As storms develop south-southwestward into the evening and overnight, into a region of weaker shear but steep lapse rates, potential for hail with a few of the strongest storms is expected. At this time, any focused areas for greater severe potential remain difficult to discern, and thus will maintain the broad MRGL risk area this forecast. ...Lower Mississippi Valley vicinity... Weak QG ascent is forecast to spread into Louisiana and adjacent Mississippi this afternoon and into this evening, as somewhat ill-defined/weak cyclonic disturbances in the southern-stream flow move across northern Mexico and Texas this morning, and begin affecting the Lower Mississippi Valley area. A gradual increase in convection through the afternoon is expected, as weak destabilization of the moist boundary layer occurs. Some increase in mid-level west-southwesterly flow with time will occur across this area, as the upper disturbance(s) approach, providing ample shear for a few stronger storms to potentially evolve. Hail would likely remain the primary severe risk with one or two of the strongest storms, though a stronger wind gust or even a brief tornado cannot be ruled out given weakly veering flow with height, and the moist boundary layer supporting surface-based updrafts. ..Goss/Broyles.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0706 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO TEXAS...AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail is expected to be the main threat, but strong/gusty winds and even a tornado may also occur. ...Synopsis... A broad area of cyclonic flow aloft will remain in place over the western two-thirds of the country, and is expected to gradually expand eastward with time. As the upper troughing expands, a surface baroclinic zone extending from the Texas Panhandle to the Upper Great Lakes will gradually shift southeastward as a cold front, particularly during the second half of the period. Along and ahead of this boundary, convection -- and isolated severe weather -- is expected to evolve. ...Southern Upper Great Lakes vicinity southwestward to Texas... While weak capping should prevail across the southern Plains today, mixing in the vicinity of a weak dryline over central Texas could allow an isolated storm or two to develop, and possibly persist into the evening. Given steep lapse rates aloft and deep mixed layer, hail and/or wind exceeding severe levels could occur, in this highly conditional scenario. More likely development of showers and thunderstorms is expected along the surface baroclinic zone that extends northward into the Upper Great Lakes region, perhaps beginning late this afternoon across northern portions of the risk area and then expanding southward along the cold front with time. With moderately strong flow aloft atop the frontal zone across northern portions of the risk area, a couple of stronger/rotating storms may evolve. Though hail is expected to be the main risk given steep mid-level lapse rates, a locally strong gust or two, or brief tornado, would also be possible if a sustained, rotating storm can develop. As storms develop south-southwestward into the evening and overnight, into a region of weaker shear but steep lapse rates, potential for hail with a few of the strongest storms is expected. At this time, any focused areas for greater severe potential remain difficult to discern, and thus will maintain the broad MRGL risk area this forecast. ...Lower Mississippi Valley vicinity... Weak QG ascent is forecast to spread into Louisiana and adjacent Mississippi this afternoon and into this evening, as somewhat ill-defined/weak cyclonic disturbances in the southern-stream flow move across northern Mexico and Texas this morning, and begin affecting the Lower Mississippi Valley area. A gradual increase in convection through the afternoon is expected, as weak destabilization of the moist boundary layer occurs. Some increase in mid-level west-southwesterly flow with time will occur across this area, as the upper disturbance(s) approach, providing ample shear for a few stronger storms to potentially evolve. Hail would likely remain the primary severe risk with one or two of the strongest storms, though a stronger wind gust or even a brief tornado cannot be ruled out given weakly veering flow with height, and the moist boundary layer supporting surface-based updrafts. ..Goss/Broyles.. 03/04/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... A multi-day severe event appears increasingly probable for the latter portion of this week into the early weekend. For Day 4/Thursday, a 15% severe area has been introduced across parts of TX into the lower MS Valley for mainly a large hail threat Thursday night into early Friday morning. A southern-stream upper trough is forecast to eject across the Southwest/northern Mexico into the southern Plains in this time frame. Steep mid-level lapse rates should overspread the gradually destabilizing warm sector, with the ECMWF and its ensemble in particular suggesting that ample MUCAPE will be available Thursday night across parts of north-central into east TX. Any thunderstorms that can initiate in the strengthening low-level warm advection regime across this region should pose a threat for large hail given ample cloud-bearing shear to support elevated supercells. Some of this activity could become near-surface-based towards 12Z Friday morning across the lower MS Valley as surface dewpoints quickly increase into the mid/upper 60s. The severe threat will likely continue into Day 5/Friday, where a 15% severe area has been introduced from east TX into the lower MS Valley and parts of the central Gulf Coast states. There is still some uncertainty in guidance regarding the ejection of the upper trough and placement of related surface features. Regardless, there is enough agreement that rich low-level moisture will advance inland across these areas to support a threat for surface-based convection ahead of whatever activity develops across north-central TX late Thursday night into early Friday morning. Forecast soundings from both the GFS and ECMWF show strong effective bulk shear that will support the potential for supercells producing large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Convection may also grow upscale into bowing line segments while continuing to pose a threat for severe/damaging winds and a few tornadoes. The main uncertainty remains how far inland/north the warm sector will be able to advance, particularly across MS/AL. For now, have opted to remain conservative with the northward extent of the 15% severe area by highlighting where at least mid 60s surface dewpoints appear probable. Some severe risk may persist into Day 6/Saturday across parts of the Southeast towards the Carolinas. However, model guidance shows substantial spread in the evolution of the upper trough at this extended time frame. Convection may also have a tendency to outpace the developing warm sector with time. While parts of FL/GA/SC/NC will be monitored for possible inclusion in a 15% severe area in later outlooks, predictability for early this weekend remains too low at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... A multi-day severe event appears increasingly probable for the latter portion of this week into the early weekend. For Day 4/Thursday, a 15% severe area has been introduced across parts of TX into the lower MS Valley for mainly a large hail threat Thursday night into early Friday morning. A southern-stream upper trough is forecast to eject across the Southwest/northern Mexico into the southern Plains in this time frame. Steep mid-level lapse rates should overspread the gradually destabilizing warm sector, with the ECMWF and its ensemble in particular suggesting that ample MUCAPE will be available Thursday night across parts of north-central into east TX. Any thunderstorms that can initiate in the strengthening low-level warm advection regime across this region should pose a threat for large hail given ample cloud-bearing shear to support elevated supercells. Some of this activity could become near-surface-based towards 12Z Friday morning across the lower MS Valley as surface dewpoints quickly increase into the mid/upper 60s. The severe threat will likely continue into Day 5/Friday, where a 15% severe area has been introduced from east TX into the lower MS Valley and parts of the central Gulf Coast states. There is still some uncertainty in guidance regarding the ejection of the upper trough and placement of related surface features. Regardless, there is enough agreement that rich low-level moisture will advance inland across these areas to support a threat for surface-based convection ahead of whatever activity develops across north-central TX late Thursday night into early Friday morning. Forecast soundings from both the GFS and ECMWF show strong effective bulk shear that will support the potential for supercells producing large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Convection may also grow upscale into bowing line segments while continuing to pose a threat for severe/damaging winds and a few tornadoes. The main uncertainty remains how far inland/north the warm sector will be able to advance, particularly across MS/AL. For now, have opted to remain conservative with the northward extent of the 15% severe area by highlighting where at least mid 60s surface dewpoints appear probable. Some severe risk may persist into Day 6/Saturday across parts of the Southeast towards the Carolinas. However, model guidance shows substantial spread in the evolution of the upper trough at this extended time frame. Convection may also have a tendency to outpace the developing warm sector with time. While parts of FL/GA/SC/NC will be monitored for possible inclusion in a 15% severe area in later outlooks, predictability for early this weekend remains too low at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... A multi-day severe event appears increasingly probable for the latter portion of this week into the early weekend. For Day 4/Thursday, a 15% severe area has been introduced across parts of TX into the lower MS Valley for mainly a large hail threat Thursday night into early Friday morning. A southern-stream upper trough is forecast to eject across the Southwest/northern Mexico into the southern Plains in this time frame. Steep mid-level lapse rates should overspread the gradually destabilizing warm sector, with the ECMWF and its ensemble in particular suggesting that ample MUCAPE will be available Thursday night across parts of north-central into east TX. Any thunderstorms that can initiate in the strengthening low-level warm advection regime across this region should pose a threat for large hail given ample cloud-bearing shear to support elevated supercells. Some of this activity could become near-surface-based towards 12Z Friday morning across the lower MS Valley as surface dewpoints quickly increase into the mid/upper 60s. The severe threat will likely continue into Day 5/Friday, where a 15% severe area has been introduced from east TX into the lower MS Valley and parts of the central Gulf Coast states. There is still some uncertainty in guidance regarding the ejection of the upper trough and placement of related surface features. Regardless, there is enough agreement that rich low-level moisture will advance inland across these areas to support a threat for surface-based convection ahead of whatever activity develops across north-central TX late Thursday night into early Friday morning. Forecast soundings from both the GFS and ECMWF show strong effective bulk shear that will support the potential for supercells producing large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Convection may also grow upscale into bowing line segments while continuing to pose a threat for severe/damaging winds and a few tornadoes. The main uncertainty remains how far inland/north the warm sector will be able to advance, particularly across MS/AL. For now, have opted to remain conservative with the northward extent of the 15% severe area by highlighting where at least mid 60s surface dewpoints appear probable. Some severe risk may persist into Day 6/Saturday across parts of the Southeast towards the Carolinas. However, model guidance shows substantial spread in the evolution of the upper trough at this extended time frame. Convection may also have a tendency to outpace the developing warm sector with time. While parts of FL/GA/SC/NC will be monitored for possible inclusion in a 15% severe area in later outlooks, predictability for early this weekend remains too low at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... A multi-day severe event appears increasingly probable for the latter portion of this week into the early weekend. For Day 4/Thursday, a 15% severe area has been introduced across parts of TX into the lower MS Valley for mainly a large hail threat Thursday night into early Friday morning. A southern-stream upper trough is forecast to eject across the Southwest/northern Mexico into the southern Plains in this time frame. Steep mid-level lapse rates should overspread the gradually destabilizing warm sector, with the ECMWF and its ensemble in particular suggesting that ample MUCAPE will be available Thursday night across parts of north-central into east TX. Any thunderstorms that can initiate in the strengthening low-level warm advection regime across this region should pose a threat for large hail given ample cloud-bearing shear to support elevated supercells. Some of this activity could become near-surface-based towards 12Z Friday morning across the lower MS Valley as surface dewpoints quickly increase into the mid/upper 60s. The severe threat will likely continue into Day 5/Friday, where a 15% severe area has been introduced from east TX into the lower MS Valley and parts of the central Gulf Coast states. There is still some uncertainty in guidance regarding the ejection of the upper trough and placement of related surface features. Regardless, there is enough agreement that rich low-level moisture will advance inland across these areas to support a threat for surface-based convection ahead of whatever activity develops across north-central TX late Thursday night into early Friday morning. Forecast soundings from both the GFS and ECMWF show strong effective bulk shear that will support the potential for supercells producing large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Convection may also grow upscale into bowing line segments while continuing to pose a threat for severe/damaging winds and a few tornadoes. The main uncertainty remains how far inland/north the warm sector will be able to advance, particularly across MS/AL. For now, have opted to remain conservative with the northward extent of the 15% severe area by highlighting where at least mid 60s surface dewpoints appear probable. Some severe risk may persist into Day 6/Saturday across parts of the Southeast towards the Carolinas. However, model guidance shows substantial spread in the evolution of the upper trough at this extended time frame. Convection may also have a tendency to outpace the developing warm sector with time. While parts of FL/GA/SC/NC will be monitored for possible inclusion in a 15% severe area in later outlooks, predictability for early this weekend remains too low at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... A multi-day severe event appears increasingly probable for the latter portion of this week into the early weekend. For Day 4/Thursday, a 15% severe area has been introduced across parts of TX into the lower MS Valley for mainly a large hail threat Thursday night into early Friday morning. A southern-stream upper trough is forecast to eject across the Southwest/northern Mexico into the southern Plains in this time frame. Steep mid-level lapse rates should overspread the gradually destabilizing warm sector, with the ECMWF and its ensemble in particular suggesting that ample MUCAPE will be available Thursday night across parts of north-central into east TX. Any thunderstorms that can initiate in the strengthening low-level warm advection regime across this region should pose a threat for large hail given ample cloud-bearing shear to support elevated supercells. Some of this activity could become near-surface-based towards 12Z Friday morning across the lower MS Valley as surface dewpoints quickly increase into the mid/upper 60s. The severe threat will likely continue into Day 5/Friday, where a 15% severe area has been introduced from east TX into the lower MS Valley and parts of the central Gulf Coast states. There is still some uncertainty in guidance regarding the ejection of the upper trough and placement of related surface features. Regardless, there is enough agreement that rich low-level moisture will advance inland across these areas to support a threat for surface-based convection ahead of whatever activity develops across north-central TX late Thursday night into early Friday morning. Forecast soundings from both the GFS and ECMWF show strong effective bulk shear that will support the potential for supercells producing large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Convection may also grow upscale into bowing line segments while continuing to pose a threat for severe/damaging winds and a few tornadoes. The main uncertainty remains how far inland/north the warm sector will be able to advance, particularly across MS/AL. For now, have opted to remain conservative with the northward extent of the 15% severe area by highlighting where at least mid 60s surface dewpoints appear probable. Some severe risk may persist into Day 6/Saturday across parts of the Southeast towards the Carolinas. However, model guidance shows substantial spread in the evolution of the upper trough at this extended time frame. Convection may also have a tendency to outpace the developing warm sector with time. While parts of FL/GA/SC/NC will be monitored for possible inclusion in a 15% severe area in later outlooks, predictability for early this weekend remains too low at this time. Read more