Aggregator

MD 0551 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0551 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Areas affected...Northern and central Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 280058Z - 280200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe threat to increase through the rest of the evening. A Watch downstream of WW150 will likely to be needed. DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms is advancing north and eastward across southern Iowa into northeastern Missouri this evening. This line will eventually move into portions of northern and central Illinois, with potential for additional thunderstorm development out ahead of this line. Ahead of this ongoing activity, temperatures remain in the mid 70s with dew points in the low to mid-60s. MUCAPE around 1500-1700 J/kg is observed in objective analysis data and sounding data from the 00z RAOB from ILX. Marginal deep layer shear around 30-35 kts suggests the main threats will be damaging wind and hail. Ahead of the line, more discrete development aligned with the low-level jet axis moving across central Illinois may pose the risk of a tornado if this activity continues to mature, though low-level lapse rates may weaken and there is uncertainty regarding this scenario. ..Thornton/Smith.. 04/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN... LAT...LON 41798978 42198953 42458911 42448820 42438786 42208778 41658786 41308807 40778852 40368873 40078901 40018972 40059032 40059038 40229048 40479049 41798978 Read more

WW 0150 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 150 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N IRK TO 30 NNW BRL TO 30 NW MLI TO 25 SW LNR. ..THORNTON..04/28/24 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LSX...ARX...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 150 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC015-067-071-073-085-131-161-177-187-195-280240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARROLL HANCOCK HENDERSON HENRY JO DAVIESS MERCER ROCK ISLAND STEPHENSON WARREN WHITESIDE IAC045-057-087-097-111-163-280240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLINTON DES MOINES HENRY JACKSON LEE SCOTT MOC045-103-111-199-205-280240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 0550 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 0550 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Areas affected...Southern Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 280030Z - 280130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Tornado watch will be issued soon across the southern Plains from northwest TX across much of OK. DISCUSSION...Leading edge of large-scale ascent is spreading across the southern high Plains early this evening. Agitated boundary-layer cu field is deepening along the dryline over TX, indicative of the approaching trough. Convection is expected to increase in areal coverage into the southwest flank of ongoing southwest-northeast MCS, then gradually shift east. 00z sounding from OUN exhibited very strong shear (400m2/s2 0-3km SRH) with MLCAPE around 2300 J/kg, though slightly capped. Supercells and thunderstorm clusters are expected to continue, and increase in areal coverage later this evening as the trough shifts east. New tornado watch is warranted. ..Darrow/Smith.. 04/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 34720012 36989633 35859456 33139792 32830002 34720012 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this evening into tonight across much of the southern Plains and lower Missouri Valley. The greatest severe threat will be from north Texas northeastward through Oklahoma into far southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. All hazards will be possible including tornadoes, with some strong, damaging wind gusts above 70 mph, and very large hail exceeding 2 inches in diameter. Scattered severe storms will also be possible later this evening in parts of west-central and southwest Texas. Isolated severe storms are also expected to occur this evening in parts of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Southern Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... An upper-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, is approaching the southern High Plains. An associated 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet streak is currently ejecting northeastward into the southern Plains. This feature has been slower than forecast, and convective coverage across much of the southern Plains has been slow to increase. The lack of convection across much of Oklahoma has likely been a result of a capping inversion, that is evident on the 00Z Norman sounding just below 700 mb. As the mid-level jet streak moves over the southern Plains this evening, this cap is expected to weaken and the low-level jet will continue to strengthen. This should result in a ramp up in convective coverage over the next 2 to 3 hours, with a line of strong to severe storms developing along the western edge of the low-level jet from north Texas through central and northeast Oklahoma into southwest Missouri. The overall environment from north Texas into Oklahoma and southwest Missouri is characterized by moderate instability (MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg), 0-6 km shear near 60 knots, and 700 to 500 mb lapse rates from 8 to 8.5 C/km. This should continue to support the development of supercells with large hail this evening. The more intense supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. In addition, the 00Z sounding from Norman has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2. This will also be favorable for tornadoes. The tornado threat is expected to be greatest with either supercells embedded in the line, or with discrete cells ahead of the line. Strong tornadoes will be possible. As the QLCS organizes this evening, tornadoes may also develop with rotating elements within the line itself. This linear MCS is expected to produce widespread wind damage and large hail from north Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma, and west-central/southwest Missouri. The severe threat will likely continue well into the overnight period. ...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes... The latest surface analysis shows a front from eastern Iowa northeastward into the western Great Lakes. A moist airmass is located to the southeast of the front, where surface dewpoints are mostly from near 60 into the mid 60s F. The RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range, and moderate deep-layer shear across much of this airmass near the front. The latest WSR-88D VWP from Chicago has 0-6 km shear near 40 knots, and strong speed shear in the low-levels. RAP forecast soundings this evening in the vicinity also have steep lapse rates. This environment should support supercell development with large hail. Wind damage will also be possible with supercells and short bowing line segments. ..Broyles.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this evening into tonight across much of the southern Plains and lower Missouri Valley. The greatest severe threat will be from north Texas northeastward through Oklahoma into far southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. All hazards will be possible including tornadoes, with some strong, damaging wind gusts above 70 mph, and very large hail exceeding 2 inches in diameter. Scattered severe storms will also be possible later this evening in parts of west-central and southwest Texas. Isolated severe storms are also expected to occur this evening in parts of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Southern Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... An upper-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, is approaching the southern High Plains. An associated 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet streak is currently ejecting northeastward into the southern Plains. This feature has been slower than forecast, and convective coverage across much of the southern Plains has been slow to increase. The lack of convection across much of Oklahoma has likely been a result of a capping inversion, that is evident on the 00Z Norman sounding just below 700 mb. As the mid-level jet streak moves over the southern Plains this evening, this cap is expected to weaken and the low-level jet will continue to strengthen. This should result in a ramp up in convective coverage over the next 2 to 3 hours, with a line of strong to severe storms developing along the western edge of the low-level jet from north Texas through central and northeast Oklahoma into southwest Missouri. The overall environment from north Texas into Oklahoma and southwest Missouri is characterized by moderate instability (MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg), 0-6 km shear near 60 knots, and 700 to 500 mb lapse rates from 8 to 8.5 C/km. This should continue to support the development of supercells with large hail this evening. The more intense supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. In addition, the 00Z sounding from Norman has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2. This will also be favorable for tornadoes. The tornado threat is expected to be greatest with either supercells embedded in the line, or with discrete cells ahead of the line. Strong tornadoes will be possible. As the QLCS organizes this evening, tornadoes may also develop with rotating elements within the line itself. This linear MCS is expected to produce widespread wind damage and large hail from north Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma, and west-central/southwest Missouri. The severe threat will likely continue well into the overnight period. ...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes... The latest surface analysis shows a front from eastern Iowa northeastward into the western Great Lakes. A moist airmass is located to the southeast of the front, where surface dewpoints are mostly from near 60 into the mid 60s F. The RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range, and moderate deep-layer shear across much of this airmass near the front. The latest WSR-88D VWP from Chicago has 0-6 km shear near 40 knots, and strong speed shear in the low-levels. RAP forecast soundings this evening in the vicinity also have steep lapse rates. This environment should support supercell development with large hail. Wind damage will also be possible with supercells and short bowing line segments. ..Broyles.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this evening into tonight across much of the southern Plains and lower Missouri Valley. The greatest severe threat will be from north Texas northeastward through Oklahoma into far southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. All hazards will be possible including tornadoes, with some strong, damaging wind gusts above 70 mph, and very large hail exceeding 2 inches in diameter. Scattered severe storms will also be possible later this evening in parts of west-central and southwest Texas. Isolated severe storms are also expected to occur this evening in parts of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Southern Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... An upper-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, is approaching the southern High Plains. An associated 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet streak is currently ejecting northeastward into the southern Plains. This feature has been slower than forecast, and convective coverage across much of the southern Plains has been slow to increase. The lack of convection across much of Oklahoma has likely been a result of a capping inversion, that is evident on the 00Z Norman sounding just below 700 mb. As the mid-level jet streak moves over the southern Plains this evening, this cap is expected to weaken and the low-level jet will continue to strengthen. This should result in a ramp up in convective coverage over the next 2 to 3 hours, with a line of strong to severe storms developing along the western edge of the low-level jet from north Texas through central and northeast Oklahoma into southwest Missouri. The overall environment from north Texas into Oklahoma and southwest Missouri is characterized by moderate instability (MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg), 0-6 km shear near 60 knots, and 700 to 500 mb lapse rates from 8 to 8.5 C/km. This should continue to support the development of supercells with large hail this evening. The more intense supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. In addition, the 00Z sounding from Norman has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2. This will also be favorable for tornadoes. The tornado threat is expected to be greatest with either supercells embedded in the line, or with discrete cells ahead of the line. Strong tornadoes will be possible. As the QLCS organizes this evening, tornadoes may also develop with rotating elements within the line itself. This linear MCS is expected to produce widespread wind damage and large hail from north Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma, and west-central/southwest Missouri. The severe threat will likely continue well into the overnight period. ...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes... The latest surface analysis shows a front from eastern Iowa northeastward into the western Great Lakes. A moist airmass is located to the southeast of the front, where surface dewpoints are mostly from near 60 into the mid 60s F. The RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range, and moderate deep-layer shear across much of this airmass near the front. The latest WSR-88D VWP from Chicago has 0-6 km shear near 40 knots, and strong speed shear in the low-levels. RAP forecast soundings this evening in the vicinity also have steep lapse rates. This environment should support supercell development with large hail. Wind damage will also be possible with supercells and short bowing line segments. ..Broyles.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this evening into tonight across much of the southern Plains and lower Missouri Valley. The greatest severe threat will be from north Texas northeastward through Oklahoma into far southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. All hazards will be possible including tornadoes, with some strong, damaging wind gusts above 70 mph, and very large hail exceeding 2 inches in diameter. Scattered severe storms will also be possible later this evening in parts of west-central and southwest Texas. Isolated severe storms are also expected to occur this evening in parts of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Southern Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... An upper-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, is approaching the southern High Plains. An associated 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet streak is currently ejecting northeastward into the southern Plains. This feature has been slower than forecast, and convective coverage across much of the southern Plains has been slow to increase. The lack of convection across much of Oklahoma has likely been a result of a capping inversion, that is evident on the 00Z Norman sounding just below 700 mb. As the mid-level jet streak moves over the southern Plains this evening, this cap is expected to weaken and the low-level jet will continue to strengthen. This should result in a ramp up in convective coverage over the next 2 to 3 hours, with a line of strong to severe storms developing along the western edge of the low-level jet from north Texas through central and northeast Oklahoma into southwest Missouri. The overall environment from north Texas into Oklahoma and southwest Missouri is characterized by moderate instability (MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg), 0-6 km shear near 60 knots, and 700 to 500 mb lapse rates from 8 to 8.5 C/km. This should continue to support the development of supercells with large hail this evening. The more intense supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. In addition, the 00Z sounding from Norman has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2. This will also be favorable for tornadoes. The tornado threat is expected to be greatest with either supercells embedded in the line, or with discrete cells ahead of the line. Strong tornadoes will be possible. As the QLCS organizes this evening, tornadoes may also develop with rotating elements within the line itself. This linear MCS is expected to produce widespread wind damage and large hail from north Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma, and west-central/southwest Missouri. The severe threat will likely continue well into the overnight period. ...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes... The latest surface analysis shows a front from eastern Iowa northeastward into the western Great Lakes. A moist airmass is located to the southeast of the front, where surface dewpoints are mostly from near 60 into the mid 60s F. The RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range, and moderate deep-layer shear across much of this airmass near the front. The latest WSR-88D VWP from Chicago has 0-6 km shear near 40 knots, and strong speed shear in the low-levels. RAP forecast soundings this evening in the vicinity also have steep lapse rates. This environment should support supercell development with large hail. Wind damage will also be possible with supercells and short bowing line segments. ..Broyles.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this evening into tonight across much of the southern Plains and lower Missouri Valley. The greatest severe threat will be from north Texas northeastward through Oklahoma into far southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. All hazards will be possible including tornadoes, with some strong, damaging wind gusts above 70 mph, and very large hail exceeding 2 inches in diameter. Scattered severe storms will also be possible later this evening in parts of west-central and southwest Texas. Isolated severe storms are also expected to occur this evening in parts of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Southern Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... An upper-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, is approaching the southern High Plains. An associated 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet streak is currently ejecting northeastward into the southern Plains. This feature has been slower than forecast, and convective coverage across much of the southern Plains has been slow to increase. The lack of convection across much of Oklahoma has likely been a result of a capping inversion, that is evident on the 00Z Norman sounding just below 700 mb. As the mid-level jet streak moves over the southern Plains this evening, this cap is expected to weaken and the low-level jet will continue to strengthen. This should result in a ramp up in convective coverage over the next 2 to 3 hours, with a line of strong to severe storms developing along the western edge of the low-level jet from north Texas through central and northeast Oklahoma into southwest Missouri. The overall environment from north Texas into Oklahoma and southwest Missouri is characterized by moderate instability (MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg), 0-6 km shear near 60 knots, and 700 to 500 mb lapse rates from 8 to 8.5 C/km. This should continue to support the development of supercells with large hail this evening. The more intense supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. In addition, the 00Z sounding from Norman has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2. This will also be favorable for tornadoes. The tornado threat is expected to be greatest with either supercells embedded in the line, or with discrete cells ahead of the line. Strong tornadoes will be possible. As the QLCS organizes this evening, tornadoes may also develop with rotating elements within the line itself. This linear MCS is expected to produce widespread wind damage and large hail from north Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma, and west-central/southwest Missouri. The severe threat will likely continue well into the overnight period. ...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes... The latest surface analysis shows a front from eastern Iowa northeastward into the western Great Lakes. A moist airmass is located to the southeast of the front, where surface dewpoints are mostly from near 60 into the mid 60s F. The RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range, and moderate deep-layer shear across much of this airmass near the front. The latest WSR-88D VWP from Chicago has 0-6 km shear near 40 knots, and strong speed shear in the low-levels. RAP forecast soundings this evening in the vicinity also have steep lapse rates. This environment should support supercell development with large hail. Wind damage will also be possible with supercells and short bowing line segments. ..Broyles.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this evening into tonight across much of the southern Plains and lower Missouri Valley. The greatest severe threat will be from north Texas northeastward through Oklahoma into far southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. All hazards will be possible including tornadoes, with some strong, damaging wind gusts above 70 mph, and very large hail exceeding 2 inches in diameter. Scattered severe storms will also be possible later this evening in parts of west-central and southwest Texas. Isolated severe storms are also expected to occur this evening in parts of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Southern Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... An upper-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, is approaching the southern High Plains. An associated 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet streak is currently ejecting northeastward into the southern Plains. This feature has been slower than forecast, and convective coverage across much of the southern Plains has been slow to increase. The lack of convection across much of Oklahoma has likely been a result of a capping inversion, that is evident on the 00Z Norman sounding just below 700 mb. As the mid-level jet streak moves over the southern Plains this evening, this cap is expected to weaken and the low-level jet will continue to strengthen. This should result in a ramp up in convective coverage over the next 2 to 3 hours, with a line of strong to severe storms developing along the western edge of the low-level jet from north Texas through central and northeast Oklahoma into southwest Missouri. The overall environment from north Texas into Oklahoma and southwest Missouri is characterized by moderate instability (MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg), 0-6 km shear near 60 knots, and 700 to 500 mb lapse rates from 8 to 8.5 C/km. This should continue to support the development of supercells with large hail this evening. The more intense supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. In addition, the 00Z sounding from Norman has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2. This will also be favorable for tornadoes. The tornado threat is expected to be greatest with either supercells embedded in the line, or with discrete cells ahead of the line. Strong tornadoes will be possible. As the QLCS organizes this evening, tornadoes may also develop with rotating elements within the line itself. This linear MCS is expected to produce widespread wind damage and large hail from north Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma, and west-central/southwest Missouri. The severe threat will likely continue well into the overnight period. ...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes... The latest surface analysis shows a front from eastern Iowa northeastward into the western Great Lakes. A moist airmass is located to the southeast of the front, where surface dewpoints are mostly from near 60 into the mid 60s F. The RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range, and moderate deep-layer shear across much of this airmass near the front. The latest WSR-88D VWP from Chicago has 0-6 km shear near 40 knots, and strong speed shear in the low-levels. RAP forecast soundings this evening in the vicinity also have steep lapse rates. This environment should support supercell development with large hail. Wind damage will also be possible with supercells and short bowing line segments. ..Broyles.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this evening into tonight across much of the southern Plains and lower Missouri Valley. The greatest severe threat will be from north Texas northeastward through Oklahoma into far southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. All hazards will be possible including tornadoes, with some strong, damaging wind gusts above 70 mph, and very large hail exceeding 2 inches in diameter. Scattered severe storms will also be possible later this evening in parts of west-central and southwest Texas. Isolated severe storms are also expected to occur this evening in parts of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Southern Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... An upper-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, is approaching the southern High Plains. An associated 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet streak is currently ejecting northeastward into the southern Plains. This feature has been slower than forecast, and convective coverage across much of the southern Plains has been slow to increase. The lack of convection across much of Oklahoma has likely been a result of a capping inversion, that is evident on the 00Z Norman sounding just below 700 mb. As the mid-level jet streak moves over the southern Plains this evening, this cap is expected to weaken and the low-level jet will continue to strengthen. This should result in a ramp up in convective coverage over the next 2 to 3 hours, with a line of strong to severe storms developing along the western edge of the low-level jet from north Texas through central and northeast Oklahoma into southwest Missouri. The overall environment from north Texas into Oklahoma and southwest Missouri is characterized by moderate instability (MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg), 0-6 km shear near 60 knots, and 700 to 500 mb lapse rates from 8 to 8.5 C/km. This should continue to support the development of supercells with large hail this evening. The more intense supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. In addition, the 00Z sounding from Norman has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2. This will also be favorable for tornadoes. The tornado threat is expected to be greatest with either supercells embedded in the line, or with discrete cells ahead of the line. Strong tornadoes will be possible. As the QLCS organizes this evening, tornadoes may also develop with rotating elements within the line itself. This linear MCS is expected to produce widespread wind damage and large hail from north Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma, and west-central/southwest Missouri. The severe threat will likely continue well into the overnight period. ...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes... The latest surface analysis shows a front from eastern Iowa northeastward into the western Great Lakes. A moist airmass is located to the southeast of the front, where surface dewpoints are mostly from near 60 into the mid 60s F. The RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range, and moderate deep-layer shear across much of this airmass near the front. The latest WSR-88D VWP from Chicago has 0-6 km shear near 40 knots, and strong speed shear in the low-levels. RAP forecast soundings this evening in the vicinity also have steep lapse rates. This environment should support supercell development with large hail. Wind damage will also be possible with supercells and short bowing line segments. ..Broyles.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this evening into tonight across much of the southern Plains and lower Missouri Valley. The greatest severe threat will be from north Texas northeastward through Oklahoma into far southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. All hazards will be possible including tornadoes, with some strong, damaging wind gusts above 70 mph, and very large hail exceeding 2 inches in diameter. Scattered severe storms will also be possible later this evening in parts of west-central and southwest Texas. Isolated severe storms are also expected to occur this evening in parts of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Southern Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... An upper-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, is approaching the southern High Plains. An associated 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet streak is currently ejecting northeastward into the southern Plains. This feature has been slower than forecast, and convective coverage across much of the southern Plains has been slow to increase. The lack of convection across much of Oklahoma has likely been a result of a capping inversion, that is evident on the 00Z Norman sounding just below 700 mb. As the mid-level jet streak moves over the southern Plains this evening, this cap is expected to weaken and the low-level jet will continue to strengthen. This should result in a ramp up in convective coverage over the next 2 to 3 hours, with a line of strong to severe storms developing along the western edge of the low-level jet from north Texas through central and northeast Oklahoma into southwest Missouri. The overall environment from north Texas into Oklahoma and southwest Missouri is characterized by moderate instability (MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg), 0-6 km shear near 60 knots, and 700 to 500 mb lapse rates from 8 to 8.5 C/km. This should continue to support the development of supercells with large hail this evening. The more intense supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. In addition, the 00Z sounding from Norman has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2. This will also be favorable for tornadoes. The tornado threat is expected to be greatest with either supercells embedded in the line, or with discrete cells ahead of the line. Strong tornadoes will be possible. As the QLCS organizes this evening, tornadoes may also develop with rotating elements within the line itself. This linear MCS is expected to produce widespread wind damage and large hail from north Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma, and west-central/southwest Missouri. The severe threat will likely continue well into the overnight period. ...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes... The latest surface analysis shows a front from eastern Iowa northeastward into the western Great Lakes. A moist airmass is located to the southeast of the front, where surface dewpoints are mostly from near 60 into the mid 60s F. The RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range, and moderate deep-layer shear across much of this airmass near the front. The latest WSR-88D VWP from Chicago has 0-6 km shear near 40 knots, and strong speed shear in the low-levels. RAP forecast soundings this evening in the vicinity also have steep lapse rates. This environment should support supercell development with large hail. Wind damage will also be possible with supercells and short bowing line segments. ..Broyles.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this evening into tonight across much of the southern Plains and lower Missouri Valley. The greatest severe threat will be from north Texas northeastward through Oklahoma into far southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. All hazards will be possible including tornadoes, with some strong, damaging wind gusts above 70 mph, and very large hail exceeding 2 inches in diameter. Scattered severe storms will also be possible later this evening in parts of west-central and southwest Texas. Isolated severe storms are also expected to occur this evening in parts of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Southern Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... An upper-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, is approaching the southern High Plains. An associated 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet streak is currently ejecting northeastward into the southern Plains. This feature has been slower than forecast, and convective coverage across much of the southern Plains has been slow to increase. The lack of convection across much of Oklahoma has likely been a result of a capping inversion, that is evident on the 00Z Norman sounding just below 700 mb. As the mid-level jet streak moves over the southern Plains this evening, this cap is expected to weaken and the low-level jet will continue to strengthen. This should result in a ramp up in convective coverage over the next 2 to 3 hours, with a line of strong to severe storms developing along the western edge of the low-level jet from north Texas through central and northeast Oklahoma into southwest Missouri. The overall environment from north Texas into Oklahoma and southwest Missouri is characterized by moderate instability (MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg), 0-6 km shear near 60 knots, and 700 to 500 mb lapse rates from 8 to 8.5 C/km. This should continue to support the development of supercells with large hail this evening. The more intense supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. In addition, the 00Z sounding from Norman has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2. This will also be favorable for tornadoes. The tornado threat is expected to be greatest with either supercells embedded in the line, or with discrete cells ahead of the line. Strong tornadoes will be possible. As the QLCS organizes this evening, tornadoes may also develop with rotating elements within the line itself. This linear MCS is expected to produce widespread wind damage and large hail from north Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma, and west-central/southwest Missouri. The severe threat will likely continue well into the overnight period. ...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes... The latest surface analysis shows a front from eastern Iowa northeastward into the western Great Lakes. A moist airmass is located to the southeast of the front, where surface dewpoints are mostly from near 60 into the mid 60s F. The RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range, and moderate deep-layer shear across much of this airmass near the front. The latest WSR-88D VWP from Chicago has 0-6 km shear near 40 knots, and strong speed shear in the low-levels. RAP forecast soundings this evening in the vicinity also have steep lapse rates. This environment should support supercell development with large hail. Wind damage will also be possible with supercells and short bowing line segments. ..Broyles.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this evening into tonight across much of the southern Plains and lower Missouri Valley. The greatest severe threat will be from north Texas northeastward through Oklahoma into far southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. All hazards will be possible including tornadoes, with some strong, damaging wind gusts above 70 mph, and very large hail exceeding 2 inches in diameter. Scattered severe storms will also be possible later this evening in parts of west-central and southwest Texas. Isolated severe storms are also expected to occur this evening in parts of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Southern Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... An upper-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, is approaching the southern High Plains. An associated 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet streak is currently ejecting northeastward into the southern Plains. This feature has been slower than forecast, and convective coverage across much of the southern Plains has been slow to increase. The lack of convection across much of Oklahoma has likely been a result of a capping inversion, that is evident on the 00Z Norman sounding just below 700 mb. As the mid-level jet streak moves over the southern Plains this evening, this cap is expected to weaken and the low-level jet will continue to strengthen. This should result in a ramp up in convective coverage over the next 2 to 3 hours, with a line of strong to severe storms developing along the western edge of the low-level jet from north Texas through central and northeast Oklahoma into southwest Missouri. The overall environment from north Texas into Oklahoma and southwest Missouri is characterized by moderate instability (MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg), 0-6 km shear near 60 knots, and 700 to 500 mb lapse rates from 8 to 8.5 C/km. This should continue to support the development of supercells with large hail this evening. The more intense supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. In addition, the 00Z sounding from Norman has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2. This will also be favorable for tornadoes. The tornado threat is expected to be greatest with either supercells embedded in the line, or with discrete cells ahead of the line. Strong tornadoes will be possible. As the QLCS organizes this evening, tornadoes may also develop with rotating elements within the line itself. This linear MCS is expected to produce widespread wind damage and large hail from north Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma, and west-central/southwest Missouri. The severe threat will likely continue well into the overnight period. ...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes... The latest surface analysis shows a front from eastern Iowa northeastward into the western Great Lakes. A moist airmass is located to the southeast of the front, where surface dewpoints are mostly from near 60 into the mid 60s F. The RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range, and moderate deep-layer shear across much of this airmass near the front. The latest WSR-88D VWP from Chicago has 0-6 km shear near 40 knots, and strong speed shear in the low-levels. RAP forecast soundings this evening in the vicinity also have steep lapse rates. This environment should support supercell development with large hail. Wind damage will also be possible with supercells and short bowing line segments. ..Broyles.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this evening into tonight across much of the southern Plains and lower Missouri Valley. The greatest severe threat will be from north Texas northeastward through Oklahoma into far southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. All hazards will be possible including tornadoes, with some strong, damaging wind gusts above 70 mph, and very large hail exceeding 2 inches in diameter. Scattered severe storms will also be possible later this evening in parts of west-central and southwest Texas. Isolated severe storms are also expected to occur this evening in parts of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Southern Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... An upper-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, is approaching the southern High Plains. An associated 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet streak is currently ejecting northeastward into the southern Plains. This feature has been slower than forecast, and convective coverage across much of the southern Plains has been slow to increase. The lack of convection across much of Oklahoma has likely been a result of a capping inversion, that is evident on the 00Z Norman sounding just below 700 mb. As the mid-level jet streak moves over the southern Plains this evening, this cap is expected to weaken and the low-level jet will continue to strengthen. This should result in a ramp up in convective coverage over the next 2 to 3 hours, with a line of strong to severe storms developing along the western edge of the low-level jet from north Texas through central and northeast Oklahoma into southwest Missouri. The overall environment from north Texas into Oklahoma and southwest Missouri is characterized by moderate instability (MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg), 0-6 km shear near 60 knots, and 700 to 500 mb lapse rates from 8 to 8.5 C/km. This should continue to support the development of supercells with large hail this evening. The more intense supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. In addition, the 00Z sounding from Norman has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2. This will also be favorable for tornadoes. The tornado threat is expected to be greatest with either supercells embedded in the line, or with discrete cells ahead of the line. Strong tornadoes will be possible. As the QLCS organizes this evening, tornadoes may also develop with rotating elements within the line itself. This linear MCS is expected to produce widespread wind damage and large hail from north Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma, and west-central/southwest Missouri. The severe threat will likely continue well into the overnight period. ...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes... The latest surface analysis shows a front from eastern Iowa northeastward into the western Great Lakes. A moist airmass is located to the southeast of the front, where surface dewpoints are mostly from near 60 into the mid 60s F. The RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range, and moderate deep-layer shear across much of this airmass near the front. The latest WSR-88D VWP from Chicago has 0-6 km shear near 40 knots, and strong speed shear in the low-levels. RAP forecast soundings this evening in the vicinity also have steep lapse rates. This environment should support supercell development with large hail. Wind damage will also be possible with supercells and short bowing line segments. ..Broyles.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this evening into tonight across much of the southern Plains and lower Missouri Valley. The greatest severe threat will be from north Texas northeastward through Oklahoma into far southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. All hazards will be possible including tornadoes, with some strong, damaging wind gusts above 70 mph, and very large hail exceeding 2 inches in diameter. Scattered severe storms will also be possible later this evening in parts of west-central and southwest Texas. Isolated severe storms are also expected to occur this evening in parts of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Southern Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... An upper-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, is approaching the southern High Plains. An associated 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet streak is currently ejecting northeastward into the southern Plains. This feature has been slower than forecast, and convective coverage across much of the southern Plains has been slow to increase. The lack of convection across much of Oklahoma has likely been a result of a capping inversion, that is evident on the 00Z Norman sounding just below 700 mb. As the mid-level jet streak moves over the southern Plains this evening, this cap is expected to weaken and the low-level jet will continue to strengthen. This should result in a ramp up in convective coverage over the next 2 to 3 hours, with a line of strong to severe storms developing along the western edge of the low-level jet from north Texas through central and northeast Oklahoma into southwest Missouri. The overall environment from north Texas into Oklahoma and southwest Missouri is characterized by moderate instability (MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg), 0-6 km shear near 60 knots, and 700 to 500 mb lapse rates from 8 to 8.5 C/km. This should continue to support the development of supercells with large hail this evening. The more intense supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. In addition, the 00Z sounding from Norman has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2. This will also be favorable for tornadoes. The tornado threat is expected to be greatest with either supercells embedded in the line, or with discrete cells ahead of the line. Strong tornadoes will be possible. As the QLCS organizes this evening, tornadoes may also develop with rotating elements within the line itself. This linear MCS is expected to produce widespread wind damage and large hail from north Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma, and west-central/southwest Missouri. The severe threat will likely continue well into the overnight period. ...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes... The latest surface analysis shows a front from eastern Iowa northeastward into the western Great Lakes. A moist airmass is located to the southeast of the front, where surface dewpoints are mostly from near 60 into the mid 60s F. The RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range, and moderate deep-layer shear across much of this airmass near the front. The latest WSR-88D VWP from Chicago has 0-6 km shear near 40 knots, and strong speed shear in the low-levels. RAP forecast soundings this evening in the vicinity also have steep lapse rates. This environment should support supercell development with large hail. Wind damage will also be possible with supercells and short bowing line segments. ..Broyles.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this evening into tonight across much of the southern Plains and lower Missouri Valley. The greatest severe threat will be from north Texas northeastward through Oklahoma into far southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. All hazards will be possible including tornadoes, with some strong, damaging wind gusts above 70 mph, and very large hail exceeding 2 inches in diameter. Scattered severe storms will also be possible later this evening in parts of west-central and southwest Texas. Isolated severe storms are also expected to occur this evening in parts of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Southern Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... An upper-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, is approaching the southern High Plains. An associated 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet streak is currently ejecting northeastward into the southern Plains. This feature has been slower than forecast, and convective coverage across much of the southern Plains has been slow to increase. The lack of convection across much of Oklahoma has likely been a result of a capping inversion, that is evident on the 00Z Norman sounding just below 700 mb. As the mid-level jet streak moves over the southern Plains this evening, this cap is expected to weaken and the low-level jet will continue to strengthen. This should result in a ramp up in convective coverage over the next 2 to 3 hours, with a line of strong to severe storms developing along the western edge of the low-level jet from north Texas through central and northeast Oklahoma into southwest Missouri. The overall environment from north Texas into Oklahoma and southwest Missouri is characterized by moderate instability (MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg), 0-6 km shear near 60 knots, and 700 to 500 mb lapse rates from 8 to 8.5 C/km. This should continue to support the development of supercells with large hail this evening. The more intense supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. In addition, the 00Z sounding from Norman has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2. This will also be favorable for tornadoes. The tornado threat is expected to be greatest with either supercells embedded in the line, or with discrete cells ahead of the line. Strong tornadoes will be possible. As the QLCS organizes this evening, tornadoes may also develop with rotating elements within the line itself. This linear MCS is expected to produce widespread wind damage and large hail from north Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma, and west-central/southwest Missouri. The severe threat will likely continue well into the overnight period. ...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes... The latest surface analysis shows a front from eastern Iowa northeastward into the western Great Lakes. A moist airmass is located to the southeast of the front, where surface dewpoints are mostly from near 60 into the mid 60s F. The RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range, and moderate deep-layer shear across much of this airmass near the front. The latest WSR-88D VWP from Chicago has 0-6 km shear near 40 knots, and strong speed shear in the low-levels. RAP forecast soundings this evening in the vicinity also have steep lapse rates. This environment should support supercell development with large hail. Wind damage will also be possible with supercells and short bowing line segments. ..Broyles.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this evening into tonight across much of the southern Plains and lower Missouri Valley. The greatest severe threat will be from north Texas northeastward through Oklahoma into far southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. All hazards will be possible including tornadoes, with some strong, damaging wind gusts above 70 mph, and very large hail exceeding 2 inches in diameter. Scattered severe storms will also be possible later this evening in parts of west-central and southwest Texas. Isolated severe storms are also expected to occur this evening in parts of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Southern Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... An upper-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, is approaching the southern High Plains. An associated 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet streak is currently ejecting northeastward into the southern Plains. This feature has been slower than forecast, and convective coverage across much of the southern Plains has been slow to increase. The lack of convection across much of Oklahoma has likely been a result of a capping inversion, that is evident on the 00Z Norman sounding just below 700 mb. As the mid-level jet streak moves over the southern Plains this evening, this cap is expected to weaken and the low-level jet will continue to strengthen. This should result in a ramp up in convective coverage over the next 2 to 3 hours, with a line of strong to severe storms developing along the western edge of the low-level jet from north Texas through central and northeast Oklahoma into southwest Missouri. The overall environment from north Texas into Oklahoma and southwest Missouri is characterized by moderate instability (MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg), 0-6 km shear near 60 knots, and 700 to 500 mb lapse rates from 8 to 8.5 C/km. This should continue to support the development of supercells with large hail this evening. The more intense supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. In addition, the 00Z sounding from Norman has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2. This will also be favorable for tornadoes. The tornado threat is expected to be greatest with either supercells embedded in the line, or with discrete cells ahead of the line. Strong tornadoes will be possible. As the QLCS organizes this evening, tornadoes may also develop with rotating elements within the line itself. This linear MCS is expected to produce widespread wind damage and large hail from north Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma, and west-central/southwest Missouri. The severe threat will likely continue well into the overnight period. ...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes... The latest surface analysis shows a front from eastern Iowa northeastward into the western Great Lakes. A moist airmass is located to the southeast of the front, where surface dewpoints are mostly from near 60 into the mid 60s F. The RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range, and moderate deep-layer shear across much of this airmass near the front. The latest WSR-88D VWP from Chicago has 0-6 km shear near 40 knots, and strong speed shear in the low-levels. RAP forecast soundings this evening in the vicinity also have steep lapse rates. This environment should support supercell development with large hail. Wind damage will also be possible with supercells and short bowing line segments. ..Broyles.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this evening into tonight across much of the southern Plains and lower Missouri Valley. The greatest severe threat will be from north Texas northeastward through Oklahoma into far southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. All hazards will be possible including tornadoes, with some strong, damaging wind gusts above 70 mph, and very large hail exceeding 2 inches in diameter. Scattered severe storms will also be possible later this evening in parts of west-central and southwest Texas. Isolated severe storms are also expected to occur this evening in parts of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Southern Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... An upper-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, is approaching the southern High Plains. An associated 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet streak is currently ejecting northeastward into the southern Plains. This feature has been slower than forecast, and convective coverage across much of the southern Plains has been slow to increase. The lack of convection across much of Oklahoma has likely been a result of a capping inversion, that is evident on the 00Z Norman sounding just below 700 mb. As the mid-level jet streak moves over the southern Plains this evening, this cap is expected to weaken and the low-level jet will continue to strengthen. This should result in a ramp up in convective coverage over the next 2 to 3 hours, with a line of strong to severe storms developing along the western edge of the low-level jet from north Texas through central and northeast Oklahoma into southwest Missouri. The overall environment from north Texas into Oklahoma and southwest Missouri is characterized by moderate instability (MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg), 0-6 km shear near 60 knots, and 700 to 500 mb lapse rates from 8 to 8.5 C/km. This should continue to support the development of supercells with large hail this evening. The more intense supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. In addition, the 00Z sounding from Norman has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2. This will also be favorable for tornadoes. The tornado threat is expected to be greatest with either supercells embedded in the line, or with discrete cells ahead of the line. Strong tornadoes will be possible. As the QLCS organizes this evening, tornadoes may also develop with rotating elements within the line itself. This linear MCS is expected to produce widespread wind damage and large hail from north Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma, and west-central/southwest Missouri. The severe threat will likely continue well into the overnight period. ...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes... The latest surface analysis shows a front from eastern Iowa northeastward into the western Great Lakes. A moist airmass is located to the southeast of the front, where surface dewpoints are mostly from near 60 into the mid 60s F. The RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range, and moderate deep-layer shear across much of this airmass near the front. The latest WSR-88D VWP from Chicago has 0-6 km shear near 40 knots, and strong speed shear in the low-levels. RAP forecast soundings this evening in the vicinity also have steep lapse rates. This environment should support supercell development with large hail. Wind damage will also be possible with supercells and short bowing line segments. ..Broyles.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this evening into tonight across much of the southern Plains and lower Missouri Valley. The greatest severe threat will be from north Texas northeastward through Oklahoma into far southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. All hazards will be possible including tornadoes, with some strong, damaging wind gusts above 70 mph, and very large hail exceeding 2 inches in diameter. Scattered severe storms will also be possible later this evening in parts of west-central and southwest Texas. Isolated severe storms are also expected to occur this evening in parts of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Southern Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... An upper-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, is approaching the southern High Plains. An associated 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet streak is currently ejecting northeastward into the southern Plains. This feature has been slower than forecast, and convective coverage across much of the southern Plains has been slow to increase. The lack of convection across much of Oklahoma has likely been a result of a capping inversion, that is evident on the 00Z Norman sounding just below 700 mb. As the mid-level jet streak moves over the southern Plains this evening, this cap is expected to weaken and the low-level jet will continue to strengthen. This should result in a ramp up in convective coverage over the next 2 to 3 hours, with a line of strong to severe storms developing along the western edge of the low-level jet from north Texas through central and northeast Oklahoma into southwest Missouri. The overall environment from north Texas into Oklahoma and southwest Missouri is characterized by moderate instability (MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg), 0-6 km shear near 60 knots, and 700 to 500 mb lapse rates from 8 to 8.5 C/km. This should continue to support the development of supercells with large hail this evening. The more intense supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. In addition, the 00Z sounding from Norman has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2. This will also be favorable for tornadoes. The tornado threat is expected to be greatest with either supercells embedded in the line, or with discrete cells ahead of the line. Strong tornadoes will be possible. As the QLCS organizes this evening, tornadoes may also develop with rotating elements within the line itself. This linear MCS is expected to produce widespread wind damage and large hail from north Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma, and west-central/southwest Missouri. The severe threat will likely continue well into the overnight period. ...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes... The latest surface analysis shows a front from eastern Iowa northeastward into the western Great Lakes. A moist airmass is located to the southeast of the front, where surface dewpoints are mostly from near 60 into the mid 60s F. The RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range, and moderate deep-layer shear across much of this airmass near the front. The latest WSR-88D VWP from Chicago has 0-6 km shear near 40 knots, and strong speed shear in the low-levels. RAP forecast soundings this evening in the vicinity also have steep lapse rates. This environment should support supercell development with large hail. Wind damage will also be possible with supercells and short bowing line segments. ..Broyles.. 04/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this evening into tonight across much of the southern Plains and lower Missouri Valley. The greatest severe threat will be from north Texas northeastward through Oklahoma into far southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. All hazards will be possible including tornadoes, with some strong, damaging wind gusts above 70 mph, and very large hail exceeding 2 inches in diameter. Scattered severe storms will also be possible later this evening in parts of west-central and southwest Texas. Isolated severe storms are also expected to occur this evening in parts of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Southern Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... An upper-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, is approaching the southern High Plains. An associated 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet streak is currently ejecting northeastward into the southern Plains. This feature has been slower than forecast, and convective coverage across much of the southern Plains has been slow to increase. The lack of convection across much of Oklahoma has likely been a result of a capping inversion, that is evident on the 00Z Norman sounding just below 700 mb. As the mid-level jet streak moves over the southern Plains this evening, this cap is expected to weaken and the low-level jet will continue to strengthen. This should result in a ramp up in convective coverage over the next 2 to 3 hours, with a line of strong to severe storms developing along the western edge of the low-level jet from north Texas through central and northeast Oklahoma into southwest Missouri. The overall environment from north Texas into Oklahoma and southwest Missouri is characterized by moderate instability (MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg), 0-6 km shear near 60 knots, and 700 to 500 mb lapse rates from 8 to 8.5 C/km. This should continue to support the development of supercells with large hail this evening. The more intense supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. In addition, the 00Z sounding from Norman has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2. This will also be favorable for tornadoes. The tornado threat is expected to be greatest with either supercells embedded in the line, or with discrete cells ahead of the line. Strong tornadoes will be possible. As the QLCS organizes this evening, tornadoes may also develop with rotating elements within the line itself. This linear MCS is expected to produce widespread wind damage and large hail from north Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma, and west-central/southwest Missouri. The severe threat will likely continue well into the overnight period. ...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes... The latest surface analysis shows a front from eastern Iowa northeastward into the western Great Lakes. A moist airmass is located to the southeast of the front, where surface dewpoints are mostly from near 60 into the mid 60s F. The RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range, and moderate deep-layer shear across much of this airmass near the front. The latest WSR-88D VWP from Chicago has 0-6 km shear near 40 knots, and strong speed shear in the low-levels. RAP forecast soundings this evening in the vicinity also have steep lapse rates. This environment should support supercell development with large hail. Wind damage will also be possible with supercells and short bowing line segments. ..Broyles.. 04/28/2024 Read more