Aggregator

WW 0277 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 277 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE IRK TO 25 W DBQ TO 20 N DBQ TO 15 SW VOK. ..BENTLEY..05/22/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...ARX...DVN...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 277 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC015-071-073-085-131-161-187-195-220240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARROLL HENDERSON HENRY JO DAVIESS MERCER ROCK ISLAND WARREN WHITESIDE IAC031-045-057-061-087-097-103-105-111-115-139-163-183-220240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CEDAR CLINTON DES MOINES DUBUQUE HENRY JACKSON JOHNSON JONES LEE LOUISA MUSCATINE SCOTT WASHINGTON WIC103-220240- WI Read more

WW 0277 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 277 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE IRK TO 25 W DBQ TO 20 N DBQ TO 15 SW VOK. ..BENTLEY..05/22/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...ARX...DVN...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 277 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC015-071-073-085-131-161-187-195-220240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARROLL HENDERSON HENRY JO DAVIESS MERCER ROCK ISLAND WARREN WHITESIDE IAC031-045-057-061-087-097-103-105-111-115-139-163-183-220240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CEDAR CLINTON DES MOINES DUBUQUE HENRY JACKSON JOHNSON JONES LEE LOUISA MUSCATINE SCOTT WASHINGTON WIC103-220240- WI Read more

WW 277 TORNADO IA IL MN WI 211810Z - 220200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 277 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 110 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Iowa Northwest Illinois Southeast Minnesota Western Wisconsin * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 110 PM until 900 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 90 mph likely Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 4 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...An increasingly volatile environment and very strong atmospheric winds are expected to yield an outbreak of severe storms including tornadoes and widespread damaging winds across the region through the afternoon and early evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 110 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles south southwest of Ottumwa IA to 50 miles northeast of Mankato MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 276... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 80 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 22045. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0280 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 280 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW JEF TO 10 SW COU TO 30 ESE IRK TO 10 SSW BRL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 882. ..KERR..05/22/24 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...DVN...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 280 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-009-013-017-057-061-067-083-095-109-125-137-149-169-171- 220240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN CALHOUN CASS FULTON GREENE HANCOCK JERSEY KNOX MCDONOUGH MASON MORGAN PIKE SCHUYLER SCOTT MOC007-027-055-065-067-071-073-091-093-099-111-113-125-127-131- 137-139-149-151-153-161-163-169-173-179-183-189-203-205-213-215- 219-221-229-510-220240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUDRAIN CALLAWAY CRAWFORD DENT DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GASCONADE HOWELL IRON Read more

WW 0278 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 278 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW MKO TO 25 SE GMJ TO 20 NW HRO TO 25 NE SGF TO 25 N SGF TO 50 N SGF TO 45 WSW JEF. ..KERR..05/22/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...TOP...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 278 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-033-087-143-220240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD MADISON WASHINGTON MOC029-043-059-105-225-220240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMDEN CHRISTIAN DALLAS LACLEDE WEBSTER OKC001-021-101-107-111-135-220240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CHEROKEE MUSKOGEE Read more

WW 0283 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0283 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of far eastern Iowa, eastern Missouri, northern Illinois and Wisconsin. A potential will exist for strong tornadoes and widespread damaging winds. The severe threat will also continue south-southwestward into the Ozarks and southern Plains, with a threat for isolated large hail, wind damage and a tornado or two. ...Mid To Upper Mississippi Valley/Western Great Lakes... The latest mosaic radar imagery shows scattered severe thunderstorms located from southern Wisconsin southward across far eastern Iowa, western Illinois into eastern and southern Missouri. The storms are located from a warm front in Wisconsin and extend southward into the mid Mississippi Valley along and near a pre-frontal trough. MLCAPE along this corridor is estimated by the RAP in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. On water vapor imagery, a shortwave trough, and an associated 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet is moving through southeast Iowa. This feature is enhancing large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear across much of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. In addition, a 40 to 60 knot low-level jet is analyzed by the RAP over the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. As low-level flow continues to increase this evening, severe thunderstorm development will likely be maintained for several more hours. The 00Z sounding from Davenport, IA has MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear 50 to 55 knots and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 300 m2/s2. This appears to be representative of the environment further to the east, where much of the severe convection is ongoing. This will support supercells with tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail. The low-level shear will support a potential for strong tornadoes. The greatest threat for strong tornadoes will be near and to the east of the low-level jet from southern Wisconsin into northern Illinois. The greatest potential for wind damage will be along and ahead of organized line segments. Wind speeds of 70 to 80 mph will be possible with the more intense bowing line segments. Tornadoes may occur with rotating cells embedded in the line. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercell storms. The severe threat should become more isolated after midnight as instability decreases across the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. ...Ozarks/Southern Plains... Widely scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing across the Ozarks and in parts of the southern Plains, where the RAP is analyzing strong instability. To the east of a dryline, MLCAPE is estimated in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range from eastern Oklahoma southward across much of the eastern half of Texas. Across the airmass to the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints are in the 70s F. In addition, the RAP has moderate to strong deep-layer shear analyzed across most of the moist airmass. The 00Z sounding at Little Rock, AR and Shreveport, LA have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercells. Wind damage will also be likely with supercells, and or bowing line segments. The severe threat is expected to continue this evening, but should become more isolated toward midnight. ..Broyles.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of far eastern Iowa, eastern Missouri, northern Illinois and Wisconsin. A potential will exist for strong tornadoes and widespread damaging winds. The severe threat will also continue south-southwestward into the Ozarks and southern Plains, with a threat for isolated large hail, wind damage and a tornado or two. ...Mid To Upper Mississippi Valley/Western Great Lakes... The latest mosaic radar imagery shows scattered severe thunderstorms located from southern Wisconsin southward across far eastern Iowa, western Illinois into eastern and southern Missouri. The storms are located from a warm front in Wisconsin and extend southward into the mid Mississippi Valley along and near a pre-frontal trough. MLCAPE along this corridor is estimated by the RAP in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. On water vapor imagery, a shortwave trough, and an associated 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet is moving through southeast Iowa. This feature is enhancing large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear across much of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. In addition, a 40 to 60 knot low-level jet is analyzed by the RAP over the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. As low-level flow continues to increase this evening, severe thunderstorm development will likely be maintained for several more hours. The 00Z sounding from Davenport, IA has MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear 50 to 55 knots and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 300 m2/s2. This appears to be representative of the environment further to the east, where much of the severe convection is ongoing. This will support supercells with tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail. The low-level shear will support a potential for strong tornadoes. The greatest threat for strong tornadoes will be near and to the east of the low-level jet from southern Wisconsin into northern Illinois. The greatest potential for wind damage will be along and ahead of organized line segments. Wind speeds of 70 to 80 mph will be possible with the more intense bowing line segments. Tornadoes may occur with rotating cells embedded in the line. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercell storms. The severe threat should become more isolated after midnight as instability decreases across the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. ...Ozarks/Southern Plains... Widely scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing across the Ozarks and in parts of the southern Plains, where the RAP is analyzing strong instability. To the east of a dryline, MLCAPE is estimated in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range from eastern Oklahoma southward across much of the eastern half of Texas. Across the airmass to the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints are in the 70s F. In addition, the RAP has moderate to strong deep-layer shear analyzed across most of the moist airmass. The 00Z sounding at Little Rock, AR and Shreveport, LA have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercells. Wind damage will also be likely with supercells, and or bowing line segments. The severe threat is expected to continue this evening, but should become more isolated toward midnight. ..Broyles.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of far eastern Iowa, eastern Missouri, northern Illinois and Wisconsin. A potential will exist for strong tornadoes and widespread damaging winds. The severe threat will also continue south-southwestward into the Ozarks and southern Plains, with a threat for isolated large hail, wind damage and a tornado or two. ...Mid To Upper Mississippi Valley/Western Great Lakes... The latest mosaic radar imagery shows scattered severe thunderstorms located from southern Wisconsin southward across far eastern Iowa, western Illinois into eastern and southern Missouri. The storms are located from a warm front in Wisconsin and extend southward into the mid Mississippi Valley along and near a pre-frontal trough. MLCAPE along this corridor is estimated by the RAP in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. On water vapor imagery, a shortwave trough, and an associated 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet is moving through southeast Iowa. This feature is enhancing large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear across much of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. In addition, a 40 to 60 knot low-level jet is analyzed by the RAP over the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. As low-level flow continues to increase this evening, severe thunderstorm development will likely be maintained for several more hours. The 00Z sounding from Davenport, IA has MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear 50 to 55 knots and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 300 m2/s2. This appears to be representative of the environment further to the east, where much of the severe convection is ongoing. This will support supercells with tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail. The low-level shear will support a potential for strong tornadoes. The greatest threat for strong tornadoes will be near and to the east of the low-level jet from southern Wisconsin into northern Illinois. The greatest potential for wind damage will be along and ahead of organized line segments. Wind speeds of 70 to 80 mph will be possible with the more intense bowing line segments. Tornadoes may occur with rotating cells embedded in the line. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercell storms. The severe threat should become more isolated after midnight as instability decreases across the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. ...Ozarks/Southern Plains... Widely scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing across the Ozarks and in parts of the southern Plains, where the RAP is analyzing strong instability. To the east of a dryline, MLCAPE is estimated in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range from eastern Oklahoma southward across much of the eastern half of Texas. Across the airmass to the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints are in the 70s F. In addition, the RAP has moderate to strong deep-layer shear analyzed across most of the moist airmass. The 00Z sounding at Little Rock, AR and Shreveport, LA have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercells. Wind damage will also be likely with supercells, and or bowing line segments. The severe threat is expected to continue this evening, but should become more isolated toward midnight. ..Broyles.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of far eastern Iowa, eastern Missouri, northern Illinois and Wisconsin. A potential will exist for strong tornadoes and widespread damaging winds. The severe threat will also continue south-southwestward into the Ozarks and southern Plains, with a threat for isolated large hail, wind damage and a tornado or two. ...Mid To Upper Mississippi Valley/Western Great Lakes... The latest mosaic radar imagery shows scattered severe thunderstorms located from southern Wisconsin southward across far eastern Iowa, western Illinois into eastern and southern Missouri. The storms are located from a warm front in Wisconsin and extend southward into the mid Mississippi Valley along and near a pre-frontal trough. MLCAPE along this corridor is estimated by the RAP in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. On water vapor imagery, a shortwave trough, and an associated 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet is moving through southeast Iowa. This feature is enhancing large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear across much of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. In addition, a 40 to 60 knot low-level jet is analyzed by the RAP over the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. As low-level flow continues to increase this evening, severe thunderstorm development will likely be maintained for several more hours. The 00Z sounding from Davenport, IA has MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear 50 to 55 knots and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 300 m2/s2. This appears to be representative of the environment further to the east, where much of the severe convection is ongoing. This will support supercells with tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail. The low-level shear will support a potential for strong tornadoes. The greatest threat for strong tornadoes will be near and to the east of the low-level jet from southern Wisconsin into northern Illinois. The greatest potential for wind damage will be along and ahead of organized line segments. Wind speeds of 70 to 80 mph will be possible with the more intense bowing line segments. Tornadoes may occur with rotating cells embedded in the line. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercell storms. The severe threat should become more isolated after midnight as instability decreases across the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. ...Ozarks/Southern Plains... Widely scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing across the Ozarks and in parts of the southern Plains, where the RAP is analyzing strong instability. To the east of a dryline, MLCAPE is estimated in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range from eastern Oklahoma southward across much of the eastern half of Texas. Across the airmass to the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints are in the 70s F. In addition, the RAP has moderate to strong deep-layer shear analyzed across most of the moist airmass. The 00Z sounding at Little Rock, AR and Shreveport, LA have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercells. Wind damage will also be likely with supercells, and or bowing line segments. The severe threat is expected to continue this evening, but should become more isolated toward midnight. ..Broyles.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of far eastern Iowa, eastern Missouri, northern Illinois and Wisconsin. A potential will exist for strong tornadoes and widespread damaging winds. The severe threat will also continue south-southwestward into the Ozarks and southern Plains, with a threat for isolated large hail, wind damage and a tornado or two. ...Mid To Upper Mississippi Valley/Western Great Lakes... The latest mosaic radar imagery shows scattered severe thunderstorms located from southern Wisconsin southward across far eastern Iowa, western Illinois into eastern and southern Missouri. The storms are located from a warm front in Wisconsin and extend southward into the mid Mississippi Valley along and near a pre-frontal trough. MLCAPE along this corridor is estimated by the RAP in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. On water vapor imagery, a shortwave trough, and an associated 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet is moving through southeast Iowa. This feature is enhancing large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear across much of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. In addition, a 40 to 60 knot low-level jet is analyzed by the RAP over the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. As low-level flow continues to increase this evening, severe thunderstorm development will likely be maintained for several more hours. The 00Z sounding from Davenport, IA has MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear 50 to 55 knots and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 300 m2/s2. This appears to be representative of the environment further to the east, where much of the severe convection is ongoing. This will support supercells with tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail. The low-level shear will support a potential for strong tornadoes. The greatest threat for strong tornadoes will be near and to the east of the low-level jet from southern Wisconsin into northern Illinois. The greatest potential for wind damage will be along and ahead of organized line segments. Wind speeds of 70 to 80 mph will be possible with the more intense bowing line segments. Tornadoes may occur with rotating cells embedded in the line. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercell storms. The severe threat should become more isolated after midnight as instability decreases across the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. ...Ozarks/Southern Plains... Widely scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing across the Ozarks and in parts of the southern Plains, where the RAP is analyzing strong instability. To the east of a dryline, MLCAPE is estimated in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range from eastern Oklahoma southward across much of the eastern half of Texas. Across the airmass to the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints are in the 70s F. In addition, the RAP has moderate to strong deep-layer shear analyzed across most of the moist airmass. The 00Z sounding at Little Rock, AR and Shreveport, LA have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercells. Wind damage will also be likely with supercells, and or bowing line segments. The severe threat is expected to continue this evening, but should become more isolated toward midnight. ..Broyles.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of far eastern Iowa, eastern Missouri, northern Illinois and Wisconsin. A potential will exist for strong tornadoes and widespread damaging winds. The severe threat will also continue south-southwestward into the Ozarks and southern Plains, with a threat for isolated large hail, wind damage and a tornado or two. ...Mid To Upper Mississippi Valley/Western Great Lakes... The latest mosaic radar imagery shows scattered severe thunderstorms located from southern Wisconsin southward across far eastern Iowa, western Illinois into eastern and southern Missouri. The storms are located from a warm front in Wisconsin and extend southward into the mid Mississippi Valley along and near a pre-frontal trough. MLCAPE along this corridor is estimated by the RAP in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. On water vapor imagery, a shortwave trough, and an associated 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet is moving through southeast Iowa. This feature is enhancing large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear across much of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. In addition, a 40 to 60 knot low-level jet is analyzed by the RAP over the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. As low-level flow continues to increase this evening, severe thunderstorm development will likely be maintained for several more hours. The 00Z sounding from Davenport, IA has MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear 50 to 55 knots and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 300 m2/s2. This appears to be representative of the environment further to the east, where much of the severe convection is ongoing. This will support supercells with tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail. The low-level shear will support a potential for strong tornadoes. The greatest threat for strong tornadoes will be near and to the east of the low-level jet from southern Wisconsin into northern Illinois. The greatest potential for wind damage will be along and ahead of organized line segments. Wind speeds of 70 to 80 mph will be possible with the more intense bowing line segments. Tornadoes may occur with rotating cells embedded in the line. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercell storms. The severe threat should become more isolated after midnight as instability decreases across the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. ...Ozarks/Southern Plains... Widely scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing across the Ozarks and in parts of the southern Plains, where the RAP is analyzing strong instability. To the east of a dryline, MLCAPE is estimated in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range from eastern Oklahoma southward across much of the eastern half of Texas. Across the airmass to the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints are in the 70s F. In addition, the RAP has moderate to strong deep-layer shear analyzed across most of the moist airmass. The 00Z sounding at Little Rock, AR and Shreveport, LA have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercells. Wind damage will also be likely with supercells, and or bowing line segments. The severe threat is expected to continue this evening, but should become more isolated toward midnight. ..Broyles.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of far eastern Iowa, eastern Missouri, northern Illinois and Wisconsin. A potential will exist for strong tornadoes and widespread damaging winds. The severe threat will also continue south-southwestward into the Ozarks and southern Plains, with a threat for isolated large hail, wind damage and a tornado or two. ...Mid To Upper Mississippi Valley/Western Great Lakes... The latest mosaic radar imagery shows scattered severe thunderstorms located from southern Wisconsin southward across far eastern Iowa, western Illinois into eastern and southern Missouri. The storms are located from a warm front in Wisconsin and extend southward into the mid Mississippi Valley along and near a pre-frontal trough. MLCAPE along this corridor is estimated by the RAP in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. On water vapor imagery, a shortwave trough, and an associated 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet is moving through southeast Iowa. This feature is enhancing large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear across much of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. In addition, a 40 to 60 knot low-level jet is analyzed by the RAP over the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. As low-level flow continues to increase this evening, severe thunderstorm development will likely be maintained for several more hours. The 00Z sounding from Davenport, IA has MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear 50 to 55 knots and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 300 m2/s2. This appears to be representative of the environment further to the east, where much of the severe convection is ongoing. This will support supercells with tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail. The low-level shear will support a potential for strong tornadoes. The greatest threat for strong tornadoes will be near and to the east of the low-level jet from southern Wisconsin into northern Illinois. The greatest potential for wind damage will be along and ahead of organized line segments. Wind speeds of 70 to 80 mph will be possible with the more intense bowing line segments. Tornadoes may occur with rotating cells embedded in the line. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercell storms. The severe threat should become more isolated after midnight as instability decreases across the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. ...Ozarks/Southern Plains... Widely scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing across the Ozarks and in parts of the southern Plains, where the RAP is analyzing strong instability. To the east of a dryline, MLCAPE is estimated in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range from eastern Oklahoma southward across much of the eastern half of Texas. Across the airmass to the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints are in the 70s F. In addition, the RAP has moderate to strong deep-layer shear analyzed across most of the moist airmass. The 00Z sounding at Little Rock, AR and Shreveport, LA have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercells. Wind damage will also be likely with supercells, and or bowing line segments. The severe threat is expected to continue this evening, but should become more isolated toward midnight. ..Broyles.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of far eastern Iowa, eastern Missouri, northern Illinois and Wisconsin. A potential will exist for strong tornadoes and widespread damaging winds. The severe threat will also continue south-southwestward into the Ozarks and southern Plains, with a threat for isolated large hail, wind damage and a tornado or two. ...Mid To Upper Mississippi Valley/Western Great Lakes... The latest mosaic radar imagery shows scattered severe thunderstorms located from southern Wisconsin southward across far eastern Iowa, western Illinois into eastern and southern Missouri. The storms are located from a warm front in Wisconsin and extend southward into the mid Mississippi Valley along and near a pre-frontal trough. MLCAPE along this corridor is estimated by the RAP in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. On water vapor imagery, a shortwave trough, and an associated 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet is moving through southeast Iowa. This feature is enhancing large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear across much of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. In addition, a 40 to 60 knot low-level jet is analyzed by the RAP over the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. As low-level flow continues to increase this evening, severe thunderstorm development will likely be maintained for several more hours. The 00Z sounding from Davenport, IA has MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear 50 to 55 knots and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 300 m2/s2. This appears to be representative of the environment further to the east, where much of the severe convection is ongoing. This will support supercells with tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail. The low-level shear will support a potential for strong tornadoes. The greatest threat for strong tornadoes will be near and to the east of the low-level jet from southern Wisconsin into northern Illinois. The greatest potential for wind damage will be along and ahead of organized line segments. Wind speeds of 70 to 80 mph will be possible with the more intense bowing line segments. Tornadoes may occur with rotating cells embedded in the line. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercell storms. The severe threat should become more isolated after midnight as instability decreases across the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. ...Ozarks/Southern Plains... Widely scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing across the Ozarks and in parts of the southern Plains, where the RAP is analyzing strong instability. To the east of a dryline, MLCAPE is estimated in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range from eastern Oklahoma southward across much of the eastern half of Texas. Across the airmass to the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints are in the 70s F. In addition, the RAP has moderate to strong deep-layer shear analyzed across most of the moist airmass. The 00Z sounding at Little Rock, AR and Shreveport, LA have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercells. Wind damage will also be likely with supercells, and or bowing line segments. The severe threat is expected to continue this evening, but should become more isolated toward midnight. ..Broyles.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of far eastern Iowa, eastern Missouri, northern Illinois and Wisconsin. A potential will exist for strong tornadoes and widespread damaging winds. The severe threat will also continue south-southwestward into the Ozarks and southern Plains, with a threat for isolated large hail, wind damage and a tornado or two. ...Mid To Upper Mississippi Valley/Western Great Lakes... The latest mosaic radar imagery shows scattered severe thunderstorms located from southern Wisconsin southward across far eastern Iowa, western Illinois into eastern and southern Missouri. The storms are located from a warm front in Wisconsin and extend southward into the mid Mississippi Valley along and near a pre-frontal trough. MLCAPE along this corridor is estimated by the RAP in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. On water vapor imagery, a shortwave trough, and an associated 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet is moving through southeast Iowa. This feature is enhancing large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear across much of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. In addition, a 40 to 60 knot low-level jet is analyzed by the RAP over the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. As low-level flow continues to increase this evening, severe thunderstorm development will likely be maintained for several more hours. The 00Z sounding from Davenport, IA has MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear 50 to 55 knots and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 300 m2/s2. This appears to be representative of the environment further to the east, where much of the severe convection is ongoing. This will support supercells with tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail. The low-level shear will support a potential for strong tornadoes. The greatest threat for strong tornadoes will be near and to the east of the low-level jet from southern Wisconsin into northern Illinois. The greatest potential for wind damage will be along and ahead of organized line segments. Wind speeds of 70 to 80 mph will be possible with the more intense bowing line segments. Tornadoes may occur with rotating cells embedded in the line. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercell storms. The severe threat should become more isolated after midnight as instability decreases across the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. ...Ozarks/Southern Plains... Widely scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing across the Ozarks and in parts of the southern Plains, where the RAP is analyzing strong instability. To the east of a dryline, MLCAPE is estimated in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range from eastern Oklahoma southward across much of the eastern half of Texas. Across the airmass to the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints are in the 70s F. In addition, the RAP has moderate to strong deep-layer shear analyzed across most of the moist airmass. The 00Z sounding at Little Rock, AR and Shreveport, LA have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercells. Wind damage will also be likely with supercells, and or bowing line segments. The severe threat is expected to continue this evening, but should become more isolated toward midnight. ..Broyles.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of far eastern Iowa, eastern Missouri, northern Illinois and Wisconsin. A potential will exist for strong tornadoes and widespread damaging winds. The severe threat will also continue south-southwestward into the Ozarks and southern Plains, with a threat for isolated large hail, wind damage and a tornado or two. ...Mid To Upper Mississippi Valley/Western Great Lakes... The latest mosaic radar imagery shows scattered severe thunderstorms located from southern Wisconsin southward across far eastern Iowa, western Illinois into eastern and southern Missouri. The storms are located from a warm front in Wisconsin and extend southward into the mid Mississippi Valley along and near a pre-frontal trough. MLCAPE along this corridor is estimated by the RAP in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. On water vapor imagery, a shortwave trough, and an associated 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet is moving through southeast Iowa. This feature is enhancing large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear across much of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. In addition, a 40 to 60 knot low-level jet is analyzed by the RAP over the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. As low-level flow continues to increase this evening, severe thunderstorm development will likely be maintained for several more hours. The 00Z sounding from Davenport, IA has MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear 50 to 55 knots and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 300 m2/s2. This appears to be representative of the environment further to the east, where much of the severe convection is ongoing. This will support supercells with tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail. The low-level shear will support a potential for strong tornadoes. The greatest threat for strong tornadoes will be near and to the east of the low-level jet from southern Wisconsin into northern Illinois. The greatest potential for wind damage will be along and ahead of organized line segments. Wind speeds of 70 to 80 mph will be possible with the more intense bowing line segments. Tornadoes may occur with rotating cells embedded in the line. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercell storms. The severe threat should become more isolated after midnight as instability decreases across the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. ...Ozarks/Southern Plains... Widely scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing across the Ozarks and in parts of the southern Plains, where the RAP is analyzing strong instability. To the east of a dryline, MLCAPE is estimated in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range from eastern Oklahoma southward across much of the eastern half of Texas. Across the airmass to the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints are in the 70s F. In addition, the RAP has moderate to strong deep-layer shear analyzed across most of the moist airmass. The 00Z sounding at Little Rock, AR and Shreveport, LA have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercells. Wind damage will also be likely with supercells, and or bowing line segments. The severe threat is expected to continue this evening, but should become more isolated toward midnight. ..Broyles.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of far eastern Iowa, eastern Missouri, northern Illinois and Wisconsin. A potential will exist for strong tornadoes and widespread damaging winds. The severe threat will also continue south-southwestward into the Ozarks and southern Plains, with a threat for isolated large hail, wind damage and a tornado or two. ...Mid To Upper Mississippi Valley/Western Great Lakes... The latest mosaic radar imagery shows scattered severe thunderstorms located from southern Wisconsin southward across far eastern Iowa, western Illinois into eastern and southern Missouri. The storms are located from a warm front in Wisconsin and extend southward into the mid Mississippi Valley along and near a pre-frontal trough. MLCAPE along this corridor is estimated by the RAP in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. On water vapor imagery, a shortwave trough, and an associated 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet is moving through southeast Iowa. This feature is enhancing large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear across much of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. In addition, a 40 to 60 knot low-level jet is analyzed by the RAP over the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. As low-level flow continues to increase this evening, severe thunderstorm development will likely be maintained for several more hours. The 00Z sounding from Davenport, IA has MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear 50 to 55 knots and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 300 m2/s2. This appears to be representative of the environment further to the east, where much of the severe convection is ongoing. This will support supercells with tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail. The low-level shear will support a potential for strong tornadoes. The greatest threat for strong tornadoes will be near and to the east of the low-level jet from southern Wisconsin into northern Illinois. The greatest potential for wind damage will be along and ahead of organized line segments. Wind speeds of 70 to 80 mph will be possible with the more intense bowing line segments. Tornadoes may occur with rotating cells embedded in the line. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercell storms. The severe threat should become more isolated after midnight as instability decreases across the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. ...Ozarks/Southern Plains... Widely scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing across the Ozarks and in parts of the southern Plains, where the RAP is analyzing strong instability. To the east of a dryline, MLCAPE is estimated in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range from eastern Oklahoma southward across much of the eastern half of Texas. Across the airmass to the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints are in the 70s F. In addition, the RAP has moderate to strong deep-layer shear analyzed across most of the moist airmass. The 00Z sounding at Little Rock, AR and Shreveport, LA have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercells. Wind damage will also be likely with supercells, and or bowing line segments. The severe threat is expected to continue this evening, but should become more isolated toward midnight. ..Broyles.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of far eastern Iowa, eastern Missouri, northern Illinois and Wisconsin. A potential will exist for strong tornadoes and widespread damaging winds. The severe threat will also continue south-southwestward into the Ozarks and southern Plains, with a threat for isolated large hail, wind damage and a tornado or two. ...Mid To Upper Mississippi Valley/Western Great Lakes... The latest mosaic radar imagery shows scattered severe thunderstorms located from southern Wisconsin southward across far eastern Iowa, western Illinois into eastern and southern Missouri. The storms are located from a warm front in Wisconsin and extend southward into the mid Mississippi Valley along and near a pre-frontal trough. MLCAPE along this corridor is estimated by the RAP in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. On water vapor imagery, a shortwave trough, and an associated 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet is moving through southeast Iowa. This feature is enhancing large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear across much of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. In addition, a 40 to 60 knot low-level jet is analyzed by the RAP over the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. As low-level flow continues to increase this evening, severe thunderstorm development will likely be maintained for several more hours. The 00Z sounding from Davenport, IA has MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear 50 to 55 knots and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 300 m2/s2. This appears to be representative of the environment further to the east, where much of the severe convection is ongoing. This will support supercells with tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail. The low-level shear will support a potential for strong tornadoes. The greatest threat for strong tornadoes will be near and to the east of the low-level jet from southern Wisconsin into northern Illinois. The greatest potential for wind damage will be along and ahead of organized line segments. Wind speeds of 70 to 80 mph will be possible with the more intense bowing line segments. Tornadoes may occur with rotating cells embedded in the line. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercell storms. The severe threat should become more isolated after midnight as instability decreases across the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. ...Ozarks/Southern Plains... Widely scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing across the Ozarks and in parts of the southern Plains, where the RAP is analyzing strong instability. To the east of a dryline, MLCAPE is estimated in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range from eastern Oklahoma southward across much of the eastern half of Texas. Across the airmass to the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints are in the 70s F. In addition, the RAP has moderate to strong deep-layer shear analyzed across most of the moist airmass. The 00Z sounding at Little Rock, AR and Shreveport, LA have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercells. Wind damage will also be likely with supercells, and or bowing line segments. The severe threat is expected to continue this evening, but should become more isolated toward midnight. ..Broyles.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of far eastern Iowa, eastern Missouri, northern Illinois and Wisconsin. A potential will exist for strong tornadoes and widespread damaging winds. The severe threat will also continue south-southwestward into the Ozarks and southern Plains, with a threat for isolated large hail, wind damage and a tornado or two. ...Mid To Upper Mississippi Valley/Western Great Lakes... The latest mosaic radar imagery shows scattered severe thunderstorms located from southern Wisconsin southward across far eastern Iowa, western Illinois into eastern and southern Missouri. The storms are located from a warm front in Wisconsin and extend southward into the mid Mississippi Valley along and near a pre-frontal trough. MLCAPE along this corridor is estimated by the RAP in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. On water vapor imagery, a shortwave trough, and an associated 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet is moving through southeast Iowa. This feature is enhancing large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear across much of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. In addition, a 40 to 60 knot low-level jet is analyzed by the RAP over the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. As low-level flow continues to increase this evening, severe thunderstorm development will likely be maintained for several more hours. The 00Z sounding from Davenport, IA has MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear 50 to 55 knots and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 300 m2/s2. This appears to be representative of the environment further to the east, where much of the severe convection is ongoing. This will support supercells with tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail. The low-level shear will support a potential for strong tornadoes. The greatest threat for strong tornadoes will be near and to the east of the low-level jet from southern Wisconsin into northern Illinois. The greatest potential for wind damage will be along and ahead of organized line segments. Wind speeds of 70 to 80 mph will be possible with the more intense bowing line segments. Tornadoes may occur with rotating cells embedded in the line. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercell storms. The severe threat should become more isolated after midnight as instability decreases across the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. ...Ozarks/Southern Plains... Widely scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing across the Ozarks and in parts of the southern Plains, where the RAP is analyzing strong instability. To the east of a dryline, MLCAPE is estimated in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range from eastern Oklahoma southward across much of the eastern half of Texas. Across the airmass to the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints are in the 70s F. In addition, the RAP has moderate to strong deep-layer shear analyzed across most of the moist airmass. The 00Z sounding at Little Rock, AR and Shreveport, LA have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercells. Wind damage will also be likely with supercells, and or bowing line segments. The severe threat is expected to continue this evening, but should become more isolated toward midnight. ..Broyles.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of far eastern Iowa, eastern Missouri, northern Illinois and Wisconsin. A potential will exist for strong tornadoes and widespread damaging winds. The severe threat will also continue south-southwestward into the Ozarks and southern Plains, with a threat for isolated large hail, wind damage and a tornado or two. ...Mid To Upper Mississippi Valley/Western Great Lakes... The latest mosaic radar imagery shows scattered severe thunderstorms located from southern Wisconsin southward across far eastern Iowa, western Illinois into eastern and southern Missouri. The storms are located from a warm front in Wisconsin and extend southward into the mid Mississippi Valley along and near a pre-frontal trough. MLCAPE along this corridor is estimated by the RAP in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. On water vapor imagery, a shortwave trough, and an associated 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet is moving through southeast Iowa. This feature is enhancing large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear across much of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. In addition, a 40 to 60 knot low-level jet is analyzed by the RAP over the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. As low-level flow continues to increase this evening, severe thunderstorm development will likely be maintained for several more hours. The 00Z sounding from Davenport, IA has MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear 50 to 55 knots and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 300 m2/s2. This appears to be representative of the environment further to the east, where much of the severe convection is ongoing. This will support supercells with tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail. The low-level shear will support a potential for strong tornadoes. The greatest threat for strong tornadoes will be near and to the east of the low-level jet from southern Wisconsin into northern Illinois. The greatest potential for wind damage will be along and ahead of organized line segments. Wind speeds of 70 to 80 mph will be possible with the more intense bowing line segments. Tornadoes may occur with rotating cells embedded in the line. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercell storms. The severe threat should become more isolated after midnight as instability decreases across the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. ...Ozarks/Southern Plains... Widely scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing across the Ozarks and in parts of the southern Plains, where the RAP is analyzing strong instability. To the east of a dryline, MLCAPE is estimated in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range from eastern Oklahoma southward across much of the eastern half of Texas. Across the airmass to the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints are in the 70s F. In addition, the RAP has moderate to strong deep-layer shear analyzed across most of the moist airmass. The 00Z sounding at Little Rock, AR and Shreveport, LA have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercells. Wind damage will also be likely with supercells, and or bowing line segments. The severe threat is expected to continue this evening, but should become more isolated toward midnight. ..Broyles.. 05/22/2024 Read more