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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes and damaging winds are possible today through tonight from parts of east Texas through the Lower Mississippi Valley. An instance of hail or a brief tornado also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Midwest. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the central U.S. while progressing eastward and taking on a negative tilt. During the day, a 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak will overspread the central MS Valley as a 994 mb surface low tracks from the central Plains toward the Great Lakes. Deep-layer ascent and strong vertical wind shear ahead of the mid-level trough/surface low will support strong thunderstorm development along or immediately ahead of an eastward-advancing Pacific front. Storms should mature over the Mid-South during the afternoon and progress toward the Gulf Coast states by evening. Given adequate low-level moisture and overall buoyancy over the Mid-South, severe thunderstorms are possible. Closer to the surface low, and where temperatures are coldest aloft, an isolated severe threat may materialize, particularly over portions of the Midwest. ...Mid South toward the Gulf Coast Region... Thunderstorms should be ongoing along or immediately ahead of the Pacific front at the start of the period over portions of central or eastern TX. Despite widespread cloud cover likely over the entire warm sector, strong low-level warm-air/moisture advection (driven primarily by a 60+ kt southerly 850 mb jet) will contribute to a moistening boundary layer, as cooler temperatures aloft graze the Mid-South from the north and west. Mid 60s F dewpoints, overspread by 6-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will boost SBCAPE into the 500-1000 J/kg range by afternoon peak heating across portions of extreme eastern TX and LA into southern and central MS. Here, the overlapping of the intense low-level and mid-level jets will support rapidly veering/strengthening vertical wind profiles, contributing to sizeable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs with mid-level elongation. Effective SRH exceeding 400 m2/s2 will support the development of strong mesovortices embedded within a squall line. Damaging gusts and QLCS tornadoes are possible, especially over eastern LA into southern and central MS, where the best overlap of SRH and adequate surface-based buoyancy should precede a well-organized QLCS. A few strong tornadoes are also possible given the very strong low-level shear. Otherwise, the squall line should progress eastward into AL with an isolated damaging gust/tornado threat, though the severe threat should begin to wane sometime between 09-12Z as the line outpaces the warm sector. ...Portions of the Midwest... Near the surface low, very cold temperatures aloft will support 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates beneath 60 F surface dewpoints, boosting SBCAPE to over 500 J/kg by late morning or early afternoon. Strong deep-layer ascent will support the development of several thunderstorms amid deep-layer southerly flow. Speed shear will contribute to elongated hodographs, and when considering the colder temperatures aloft, a couple instances of severe hail may accompany multicellular clusters. Furthermore, strong low-level convergence north of the surface low, in the vicinity of abundant surface vertical vorticity, may result in the development of a landspout or two with one of the stronger multicells as well. ..Squitieri/Darrow.. 03/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes and damaging winds are possible today through tonight from parts of east Texas through the Lower Mississippi Valley. An instance of hail or a brief tornado also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Midwest. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the central U.S. while progressing eastward and taking on a negative tilt. During the day, a 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak will overspread the central MS Valley as a 994 mb surface low tracks from the central Plains toward the Great Lakes. Deep-layer ascent and strong vertical wind shear ahead of the mid-level trough/surface low will support strong thunderstorm development along or immediately ahead of an eastward-advancing Pacific front. Storms should mature over the Mid-South during the afternoon and progress toward the Gulf Coast states by evening. Given adequate low-level moisture and overall buoyancy over the Mid-South, severe thunderstorms are possible. Closer to the surface low, and where temperatures are coldest aloft, an isolated severe threat may materialize, particularly over portions of the Midwest. ...Mid South toward the Gulf Coast Region... Thunderstorms should be ongoing along or immediately ahead of the Pacific front at the start of the period over portions of central or eastern TX. Despite widespread cloud cover likely over the entire warm sector, strong low-level warm-air/moisture advection (driven primarily by a 60+ kt southerly 850 mb jet) will contribute to a moistening boundary layer, as cooler temperatures aloft graze the Mid-South from the north and west. Mid 60s F dewpoints, overspread by 6-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will boost SBCAPE into the 500-1000 J/kg range by afternoon peak heating across portions of extreme eastern TX and LA into southern and central MS. Here, the overlapping of the intense low-level and mid-level jets will support rapidly veering/strengthening vertical wind profiles, contributing to sizeable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs with mid-level elongation. Effective SRH exceeding 400 m2/s2 will support the development of strong mesovortices embedded within a squall line. Damaging gusts and QLCS tornadoes are possible, especially over eastern LA into southern and central MS, where the best overlap of SRH and adequate surface-based buoyancy should precede a well-organized QLCS. A few strong tornadoes are also possible given the very strong low-level shear. Otherwise, the squall line should progress eastward into AL with an isolated damaging gust/tornado threat, though the severe threat should begin to wane sometime between 09-12Z as the line outpaces the warm sector. ...Portions of the Midwest... Near the surface low, very cold temperatures aloft will support 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates beneath 60 F surface dewpoints, boosting SBCAPE to over 500 J/kg by late morning or early afternoon. Strong deep-layer ascent will support the development of several thunderstorms amid deep-layer southerly flow. Speed shear will contribute to elongated hodographs, and when considering the colder temperatures aloft, a couple instances of severe hail may accompany multicellular clusters. Furthermore, strong low-level convergence north of the surface low, in the vicinity of abundant surface vertical vorticity, may result in the development of a landspout or two with one of the stronger multicells as well. ..Squitieri/Darrow.. 03/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes and damaging winds are possible today through tonight from parts of east Texas through the Lower Mississippi Valley. An instance of hail or a brief tornado also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Midwest. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the central U.S. while progressing eastward and taking on a negative tilt. During the day, a 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak will overspread the central MS Valley as a 994 mb surface low tracks from the central Plains toward the Great Lakes. Deep-layer ascent and strong vertical wind shear ahead of the mid-level trough/surface low will support strong thunderstorm development along or immediately ahead of an eastward-advancing Pacific front. Storms should mature over the Mid-South during the afternoon and progress toward the Gulf Coast states by evening. Given adequate low-level moisture and overall buoyancy over the Mid-South, severe thunderstorms are possible. Closer to the surface low, and where temperatures are coldest aloft, an isolated severe threat may materialize, particularly over portions of the Midwest. ...Mid South toward the Gulf Coast Region... Thunderstorms should be ongoing along or immediately ahead of the Pacific front at the start of the period over portions of central or eastern TX. Despite widespread cloud cover likely over the entire warm sector, strong low-level warm-air/moisture advection (driven primarily by a 60+ kt southerly 850 mb jet) will contribute to a moistening boundary layer, as cooler temperatures aloft graze the Mid-South from the north and west. Mid 60s F dewpoints, overspread by 6-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will boost SBCAPE into the 500-1000 J/kg range by afternoon peak heating across portions of extreme eastern TX and LA into southern and central MS. Here, the overlapping of the intense low-level and mid-level jets will support rapidly veering/strengthening vertical wind profiles, contributing to sizeable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs with mid-level elongation. Effective SRH exceeding 400 m2/s2 will support the development of strong mesovortices embedded within a squall line. Damaging gusts and QLCS tornadoes are possible, especially over eastern LA into southern and central MS, where the best overlap of SRH and adequate surface-based buoyancy should precede a well-organized QLCS. A few strong tornadoes are also possible given the very strong low-level shear. Otherwise, the squall line should progress eastward into AL with an isolated damaging gust/tornado threat, though the severe threat should begin to wane sometime between 09-12Z as the line outpaces the warm sector. ...Portions of the Midwest... Near the surface low, very cold temperatures aloft will support 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates beneath 60 F surface dewpoints, boosting SBCAPE to over 500 J/kg by late morning or early afternoon. Strong deep-layer ascent will support the development of several thunderstorms amid deep-layer southerly flow. Speed shear will contribute to elongated hodographs, and when considering the colder temperatures aloft, a couple instances of severe hail may accompany multicellular clusters. Furthermore, strong low-level convergence north of the surface low, in the vicinity of abundant surface vertical vorticity, may result in the development of a landspout or two with one of the stronger multicells as well. ..Squitieri/Darrow.. 03/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes and damaging winds are possible today through tonight from parts of east Texas through the Lower Mississippi Valley. An instance of hail or a brief tornado also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Midwest. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the central U.S. while progressing eastward and taking on a negative tilt. During the day, a 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak will overspread the central MS Valley as a 994 mb surface low tracks from the central Plains toward the Great Lakes. Deep-layer ascent and strong vertical wind shear ahead of the mid-level trough/surface low will support strong thunderstorm development along or immediately ahead of an eastward-advancing Pacific front. Storms should mature over the Mid-South during the afternoon and progress toward the Gulf Coast states by evening. Given adequate low-level moisture and overall buoyancy over the Mid-South, severe thunderstorms are possible. Closer to the surface low, and where temperatures are coldest aloft, an isolated severe threat may materialize, particularly over portions of the Midwest. ...Mid South toward the Gulf Coast Region... Thunderstorms should be ongoing along or immediately ahead of the Pacific front at the start of the period over portions of central or eastern TX. Despite widespread cloud cover likely over the entire warm sector, strong low-level warm-air/moisture advection (driven primarily by a 60+ kt southerly 850 mb jet) will contribute to a moistening boundary layer, as cooler temperatures aloft graze the Mid-South from the north and west. Mid 60s F dewpoints, overspread by 6-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will boost SBCAPE into the 500-1000 J/kg range by afternoon peak heating across portions of extreme eastern TX and LA into southern and central MS. Here, the overlapping of the intense low-level and mid-level jets will support rapidly veering/strengthening vertical wind profiles, contributing to sizeable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs with mid-level elongation. Effective SRH exceeding 400 m2/s2 will support the development of strong mesovortices embedded within a squall line. Damaging gusts and QLCS tornadoes are possible, especially over eastern LA into southern and central MS, where the best overlap of SRH and adequate surface-based buoyancy should precede a well-organized QLCS. A few strong tornadoes are also possible given the very strong low-level shear. Otherwise, the squall line should progress eastward into AL with an isolated damaging gust/tornado threat, though the severe threat should begin to wane sometime between 09-12Z as the line outpaces the warm sector. ...Portions of the Midwest... Near the surface low, very cold temperatures aloft will support 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates beneath 60 F surface dewpoints, boosting SBCAPE to over 500 J/kg by late morning or early afternoon. Strong deep-layer ascent will support the development of several thunderstorms amid deep-layer southerly flow. Speed shear will contribute to elongated hodographs, and when considering the colder temperatures aloft, a couple instances of severe hail may accompany multicellular clusters. Furthermore, strong low-level convergence north of the surface low, in the vicinity of abundant surface vertical vorticity, may result in the development of a landspout or two with one of the stronger multicells as well. ..Squitieri/Darrow.. 03/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes and damaging winds are possible today through tonight from parts of east Texas through the Lower Mississippi Valley. An instance of hail or a brief tornado also cannot be ruled out over parts of the Midwest. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the central U.S. while progressing eastward and taking on a negative tilt. During the day, a 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak will overspread the central MS Valley as a 994 mb surface low tracks from the central Plains toward the Great Lakes. Deep-layer ascent and strong vertical wind shear ahead of the mid-level trough/surface low will support strong thunderstorm development along or immediately ahead of an eastward-advancing Pacific front. Storms should mature over the Mid-South during the afternoon and progress toward the Gulf Coast states by evening. Given adequate low-level moisture and overall buoyancy over the Mid-South, severe thunderstorms are possible. Closer to the surface low, and where temperatures are coldest aloft, an isolated severe threat may materialize, particularly over portions of the Midwest. ...Mid South toward the Gulf Coast Region... Thunderstorms should be ongoing along or immediately ahead of the Pacific front at the start of the period over portions of central or eastern TX. Despite widespread cloud cover likely over the entire warm sector, strong low-level warm-air/moisture advection (driven primarily by a 60+ kt southerly 850 mb jet) will contribute to a moistening boundary layer, as cooler temperatures aloft graze the Mid-South from the north and west. Mid 60s F dewpoints, overspread by 6-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will boost SBCAPE into the 500-1000 J/kg range by afternoon peak heating across portions of extreme eastern TX and LA into southern and central MS. Here, the overlapping of the intense low-level and mid-level jets will support rapidly veering/strengthening vertical wind profiles, contributing to sizeable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs with mid-level elongation. Effective SRH exceeding 400 m2/s2 will support the development of strong mesovortices embedded within a squall line. Damaging gusts and QLCS tornadoes are possible, especially over eastern LA into southern and central MS, where the best overlap of SRH and adequate surface-based buoyancy should precede a well-organized QLCS. A few strong tornadoes are also possible given the very strong low-level shear. Otherwise, the squall line should progress eastward into AL with an isolated damaging gust/tornado threat, though the severe threat should begin to wane sometime between 09-12Z as the line outpaces the warm sector. ...Portions of the Midwest... Near the surface low, very cold temperatures aloft will support 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates beneath 60 F surface dewpoints, boosting SBCAPE to over 500 J/kg by late morning or early afternoon. Strong deep-layer ascent will support the development of several thunderstorms amid deep-layer southerly flow. Speed shear will contribute to elongated hodographs, and when considering the colder temperatures aloft, a couple instances of severe hail may accompany multicellular clusters. Furthermore, strong low-level convergence north of the surface low, in the vicinity of abundant surface vertical vorticity, may result in the development of a landspout or two with one of the stronger multicells as well. ..Squitieri/Darrow.. 03/25/2024 Read more

WW 0060 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 60 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW BWD TO 15 NNW MWL TO 45 E SPS. ..BROYLES..03/25/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 60 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC085-093-097-113-121-133-143-181-221-337-363-367-425-439-497- 250540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLLIN COMANCHE COOKE DALLAS DENTON EASTLAND ERATH GRAYSON HOOD MONTAGUE PALO PINTO PARKER SOMERVELL TARRANT WISE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0060 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 60 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW BWD TO 15 NNW MWL TO 45 E SPS. ..BROYLES..03/25/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 60 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC085-093-097-113-121-133-143-181-221-337-363-367-425-439-497- 250540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLLIN COMANCHE COOKE DALLAS DENTON EASTLAND ERATH GRAYSON HOOD MONTAGUE PALO PINTO PARKER SOMERVELL TARRANT WISE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0060 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 60 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW BWD TO 15 NNW MWL TO 45 E SPS. ..BROYLES..03/25/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 60 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC085-093-097-113-121-133-143-181-221-337-363-367-425-439-497- 250540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLLIN COMANCHE COOKE DALLAS DENTON EASTLAND ERATH GRAYSON HOOD MONTAGUE PALO PINTO PARKER SOMERVELL TARRANT WISE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 60 SEVERE TSTM TX 250205Z - 250800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 60 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 905 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North Texas * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 905 PM until 300 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms are expected to persist across parts of North Texas through the late evening and overnight hours, with some additional development and intensification possible southwestward toward central Texas later this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles west northwest of Sherman TX to 20 miles west southwest of Stephenville TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 59... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Guyer Read more

MD 0295 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 0295 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0504 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Minnesota and northern/central Wisconsin Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 242204Z - 250300Z SUMMARY...A snowband with eventual heavy rates near 1-1.5 inch/hour is expected to move northward across parts of southeastern Minnesota and northern/central Wisconsin into tonight. The onset of heavier rates is expected in the 23Z-04Z time frame. DISCUSSION...KARX radar data and mesoanalysis as of 22Z indicate a well-defined frontogenetic band moving northward across far northern IA, southern MN, and southwest WI. This band is generally located along the northern periphery of a swath of 40-50-kt 1-km flow per regional VWP data, which also shows a large clockwise-curved low-level hodograph -- indicative of strong low-level warm-air advection. The associated low-level warm nose is yielding melting of hydrometeors beneath the snowband (and a robust bright-banding signature), with light to moderate snowfall rates thus far. With time, the band will continue northward into a region of colder low-level air, and additional low-level cooling should be aided by nocturnal effects and wet-bulbing. As a result, snowfall rates should eventually increase to near 1-1.5 inch/hour as the snowband moves into the increasingly cold air. There is some uncertainty on how widespread these heavier rates will be (especially in the next couple of hours), due to the marginally cold temperatures and much of the frontogenetic ascent remaining below the dendritic growth zone. Nevertheless, the heavy-snow potential should increase in the 23Z-04Z time frame. ..Weinman.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 44059117 43959249 43979386 44239442 44649458 45019452 45409416 45709334 45959186 45928898 45698837 45288825 44718867 44218993 44059117 Read more

WW 0060 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0060 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0298 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 59... FOR CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0298 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0702 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Areas affected...Central Oklahoma...Southern Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 59... Valid 250002Z - 250200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 59 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and a few strong wind gusts will be possible this evening. The threat is expected to be too isolated for weather watch issuance, to the east of the current watch. DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Oklahoma City shows a north-to-south corridor of convection across west-central Oklahoma, where a couple severe storms are ongoing. The airmass ahead of this convection is weakly unstable, with MLCAPE generally around 500 J/kg. Water vapor imagery suggests that a subtle shortwave trough is moving through central Oklahoma. This feature should continue to provide support for continued convective development for a couple more hours. Mesoscale analysis from the RAP currently has strong deep-layer shear in place across much of central Oklahoma, suggesting that an isolated severe threat will continue this evening. However, as the storms move further east into weaker instability, any severe threat should become increasingly isolated. Large hail and a few damaging wind gusts will be possible, before the severe threat continues to downtrend further. ..Broyles.. 03/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 34919664 35669660 36739666 37319672 37539689 37659734 37569786 37289810 36699820 35789816 34839802 34489779 34419742 34459709 34619682 34919664 Read more

WW 0059 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 59 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE ABI TO 35 WNW MWL TO 40 ESE FSI. ..BROYLES..03/25/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...AMA...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 59 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC019-067-069-085-095-250340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LOVE MARSHALL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0059 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 59 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE ABI TO 35 WNW MWL TO 40 ESE FSI. ..BROYLES..03/25/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...AMA...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 59 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC019-067-069-085-095-250340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LOVE MARSHALL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0059 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 59 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE ABI TO 35 WNW MWL TO 40 ESE FSI. ..BROYLES..03/25/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...AMA...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 59 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC019-067-069-085-095-250340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LOVE MARSHALL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0059 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 59 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 NE ABI TO 10 WSW SPS TO 15 NNE CHK. ..BROYLES..03/25/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...AMA...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 59 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC019-033-067-085-137-250240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER COTTON JEFFERSON LOVE STEPHENS TXC009-077-417-250240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER CLAY SHACKELFORD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0059 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 59 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 NE ABI TO 10 WSW SPS TO 15 NNE CHK. ..BROYLES..03/25/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...AMA...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 59 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC019-033-067-085-137-250240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER COTTON JEFFERSON LOVE STEPHENS TXC009-077-417-250240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER CLAY SHACKELFORD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 59 SEVERE TSTM KS OK TX 241950Z - 250200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 59 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 250 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West Central Kansas Western Oklahoma Western North Texas * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 250 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing along a dryline over the Texas Panhandle. These storms will spread eastward through the afternoon, posing a risk of large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is also possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 80 miles north northeast of Dodge City KS to 80 miles south southwest of Wichita Falls TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Hart Read more

MD 0297 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 59... FOR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NORTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0297 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Areas affected...Southern Oklahoma...North Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 59... Valid 242346Z - 250145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 59 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated large hail, damaging wind gusts and potential for a brief tornado will likely continue for a couple more hours. As this storms moves to the east of WW 59, a local extension in area may be needed across parts of the area. DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a trough extending southward across west Texas, with a dryline to the east of the trough. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing to the east of the dryline in northwest Texas, where surface dewpoints are in the mid to upper 50s F and MLCAPE is estimated in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. The Frederick WSR-88D VWP currently has 0-6 km shear near 60 knots, and veering winds with height in the lowest 1 km. This, along with strong large-scale ascent associated with an approaching shortwave trough, will support a threat for supercells and large hail. Wind damage will also be possible. In addition, low-level shear appears sufficient for a tornado threat, but any threat should remain isolated and brief. As the storm in eastern Wichita County near the Red River moves further east into the weaker instability, a downtrend is eventually expected to occur. ..Broyles/Guyer.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 34699742 34629787 34389836 33959866 33519865 33189838 33089792 33119749 33249715 33469683 33829667 34179665 34569692 34699742 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... An instance of large hail, a damaging wind gust, or perhaps a tornado, remain possible this evening, particularly in central or northern Texas. ...Synopsis... A mid-level jet streak is overspreading the southern Plains, supporting the continued eastward progression of a dryline pendant from a strong surface cyclone over the central High Plains. Multiple clusters of storms are in progress across the central and southern Plains ahead of the dryline. However, the ongoing storms (north of the Red River) are outpacing the buoyancy axis that is roughly oriented along and to the west of the I-35 corridor. Given strong vertical wind shear north of the Red River, Category 1/Marginal risk-based probabilities have been maintained. An instance or two of damaging gusts, large hail, or maybe a tornado could still occur for any storm that can manage to ingest surface-based, unstable parcels before weakening over the next couple of hours. Farther south, storms along and to the south of the Red River are more robust, with supercell structures observed on regional/MRMS mosaic radar imagery. Mid 50s surface dewpoints beneath 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates support 500+ J/kg SBCAPE. Despite marginal buoyancy, 30+ kt 850 mb flow beneath the 60+ kt westerly jet streak support curved and elongated hodographs. As such, supercells and linear segments are expected to continue developing down toward the Edwards Plateau and should persist eastward through tonight with a large hail/damaging gust threat. Given strong low-level shear, a tornado or two also cannot be ruled out. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2024 Read more