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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A widespread severe threat is expected on Monday and Monday night from parts of the southern Plains northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. All hazards, including large hail, wind damage and tornadoes, will be possible. The severe threat is expected to impact parts of the Ohio Valley Monday night. ...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley... A positively tilted upper-level trough will move across the western U.S. on Monday, as an associated 90 to 100 knot mid-level jet translates northeastward ahead of the system. The mid-level jet will reinforce a very strong wind field over a moist and unstable airmass during the day. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward into central Oklahoma, extending northeastward into north-central Missouri. Surface heating and low-level convergence near the front will likely result in widespread convective initiation during the afternoon. On the warm side of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F will contribute to a moderately unstable airmass in most areas by afternoon. MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range across a broad corridor from north Texas northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. MCS development is expected along this corridor during the afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings along and near the instability axis at 00Z/Tuesday show very strong deep-layer shear in place. 0-6 km shear is forecast to peak in the 65 to 80 knot range as the nose of the mid-level jet passes over the warm sector. This feature will be associated with strong large-scale ascent over a broad area. The lift and shear will likely be favorable for a widespread severe threat. As storms rapidly increase in coverage during the afternoon, all three hazards appear likely including wind damage, large hail and tornadoes. The tornado threat may be greatest along and near a surface boundary that is forecast to extend eastward from a surface low across central and eastern Missouri. There, surface winds will be locally backed and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to be above 400 m2/s2. Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steepest further to the southwest in central and eastern Oklahoma, where hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercells. The developing MCS should also be associated with a widespread wind-damage threat as a mixed mode of supercells and multicell line segments move eastward toward the mid Mississippi Valley during the early to mid evening. The MCS should be accompanied by a severe threat that persists through much of the overnight period. ...Ohio Valley... Mid-level flow is forecast to be westerly across the Ohio Valley throughout much of the day on Monday. As moisture advection occurs on Monday, surface dewpoints will gradually increase into the 60s F across much of the region. In spite of this, instability is expected to remain weak during the morning and afternoon. A few severe storms may develop along and near the front, which is forecast to be located from central Illinois east-southeastward into southern Ohio. Large hail and damaging winds would be the primary threats. The potential for severe storms should become more prevalent during the evening, as an MCS approaches the region from the west. The stronger storms within the MCS should be associated damaging gusts and perhaps an isolated tornado threat, especially as the brunt of the MCS moves through during the late evening and early overnight period. ..Broyles.. 03/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A widespread severe threat is expected on Monday and Monday night from parts of the southern Plains northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. All hazards, including large hail, wind damage and tornadoes, will be possible. The severe threat is expected to impact parts of the Ohio Valley Monday night. ...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley... A positively tilted upper-level trough will move across the western U.S. on Monday, as an associated 90 to 100 knot mid-level jet translates northeastward ahead of the system. The mid-level jet will reinforce a very strong wind field over a moist and unstable airmass during the day. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward into central Oklahoma, extending northeastward into north-central Missouri. Surface heating and low-level convergence near the front will likely result in widespread convective initiation during the afternoon. On the warm side of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F will contribute to a moderately unstable airmass in most areas by afternoon. MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range across a broad corridor from north Texas northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. MCS development is expected along this corridor during the afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings along and near the instability axis at 00Z/Tuesday show very strong deep-layer shear in place. 0-6 km shear is forecast to peak in the 65 to 80 knot range as the nose of the mid-level jet passes over the warm sector. This feature will be associated with strong large-scale ascent over a broad area. The lift and shear will likely be favorable for a widespread severe threat. As storms rapidly increase in coverage during the afternoon, all three hazards appear likely including wind damage, large hail and tornadoes. The tornado threat may be greatest along and near a surface boundary that is forecast to extend eastward from a surface low across central and eastern Missouri. There, surface winds will be locally backed and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to be above 400 m2/s2. Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steepest further to the southwest in central and eastern Oklahoma, where hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercells. The developing MCS should also be associated with a widespread wind-damage threat as a mixed mode of supercells and multicell line segments move eastward toward the mid Mississippi Valley during the early to mid evening. The MCS should be accompanied by a severe threat that persists through much of the overnight period. ...Ohio Valley... Mid-level flow is forecast to be westerly across the Ohio Valley throughout much of the day on Monday. As moisture advection occurs on Monday, surface dewpoints will gradually increase into the 60s F across much of the region. In spite of this, instability is expected to remain weak during the morning and afternoon. A few severe storms may develop along and near the front, which is forecast to be located from central Illinois east-southeastward into southern Ohio. Large hail and damaging winds would be the primary threats. The potential for severe storms should become more prevalent during the evening, as an MCS approaches the region from the west. The stronger storms within the MCS should be associated damaging gusts and perhaps an isolated tornado threat, especially as the brunt of the MCS moves through during the late evening and early overnight period. ..Broyles.. 03/30/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... On Sunday a very strong mid-level jet will move farther east across the southern High Plains ahead of a strong mid-level low. Intense lee cyclogenesis is also expected with a sub-1000mb surface low in eastern Colorado. As a result, windy conditions are expected for much of the Southwest, Southern Plains, and central Plains. The greatest winds are expected across the southern High Plains where a deeply mixed airmass will be present and allow stronger flow aloft to reach the surface. In this region, sustained winds of 30+ mph are possible. Some extremely critical meteorological fire-weather conditions are possible, but they should be somewhat localized, and current fuel states do not support an Extremely Critical delineation. ..Bentley.. 03/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... On Sunday a very strong mid-level jet will move farther east across the southern High Plains ahead of a strong mid-level low. Intense lee cyclogenesis is also expected with a sub-1000mb surface low in eastern Colorado. As a result, windy conditions are expected for much of the Southwest, Southern Plains, and central Plains. The greatest winds are expected across the southern High Plains where a deeply mixed airmass will be present and allow stronger flow aloft to reach the surface. In this region, sustained winds of 30+ mph are possible. Some extremely critical meteorological fire-weather conditions are possible, but they should be somewhat localized, and current fuel states do not support an Extremely Critical delineation. ..Bentley.. 03/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... On Sunday a very strong mid-level jet will move farther east across the southern High Plains ahead of a strong mid-level low. Intense lee cyclogenesis is also expected with a sub-1000mb surface low in eastern Colorado. As a result, windy conditions are expected for much of the Southwest, Southern Plains, and central Plains. The greatest winds are expected across the southern High Plains where a deeply mixed airmass will be present and allow stronger flow aloft to reach the surface. In this region, sustained winds of 30+ mph are possible. Some extremely critical meteorological fire-weather conditions are possible, but they should be somewhat localized, and current fuel states do not support an Extremely Critical delineation. ..Bentley.. 03/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... On Sunday a very strong mid-level jet will move farther east across the southern High Plains ahead of a strong mid-level low. Intense lee cyclogenesis is also expected with a sub-1000mb surface low in eastern Colorado. As a result, windy conditions are expected for much of the Southwest, Southern Plains, and central Plains. The greatest winds are expected across the southern High Plains where a deeply mixed airmass will be present and allow stronger flow aloft to reach the surface. In this region, sustained winds of 30+ mph are possible. Some extremely critical meteorological fire-weather conditions are possible, but they should be somewhat localized, and current fuel states do not support an Extremely Critical delineation. ..Bentley.. 03/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... On Sunday a very strong mid-level jet will move farther east across the southern High Plains ahead of a strong mid-level low. Intense lee cyclogenesis is also expected with a sub-1000mb surface low in eastern Colorado. As a result, windy conditions are expected for much of the Southwest, Southern Plains, and central Plains. The greatest winds are expected across the southern High Plains where a deeply mixed airmass will be present and allow stronger flow aloft to reach the surface. In this region, sustained winds of 30+ mph are possible. Some extremely critical meteorological fire-weather conditions are possible, but they should be somewhat localized, and current fuel states do not support an Extremely Critical delineation. ..Bentley.. 03/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... On Sunday a very strong mid-level jet will move farther east across the southern High Plains ahead of a strong mid-level low. Intense lee cyclogenesis is also expected with a sub-1000mb surface low in eastern Colorado. As a result, windy conditions are expected for much of the Southwest, Southern Plains, and central Plains. The greatest winds are expected across the southern High Plains where a deeply mixed airmass will be present and allow stronger flow aloft to reach the surface. In this region, sustained winds of 30+ mph are possible. Some extremely critical meteorological fire-weather conditions are possible, but they should be somewhat localized, and current fuel states do not support an Extremely Critical delineation. ..Bentley.. 03/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE FAR WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES... ...Synopsis... A mid-level closed low will shift east off the California Coast today. Ahead of this low, moderate to strong mid-level flow will overspread the Southwest. In addition, by later in the day, lee cyclogenesis is expected to begin across eastern Colorado. The combination of these factors will lead to dry and breezy conditions across much of the southern High Plains. Each day, fuels continue to dry, and more critically dry fine fuels are present. Given winds of 20 to 25 mph and 8 to 13 percent relative humidity, expect an increase in initial attack and the potential for large fires across eastern New Mexico into the far western OK/TX Panhandles. A very dry airmass is expected from eastern Alabama into central Virginia today. Relative humidity around 20 percent and sustained surface winds of 15 mph are expected. This would generally support a large-fire threat. However, these conditions are expected across a region which saw significant rainfall in the last 48-72 hours, and therefore, fuels are not dry, and the large-fire threat should remain minimal. ..Bentley.. 03/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE FAR WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES... ...Synopsis... A mid-level closed low will shift east off the California Coast today. Ahead of this low, moderate to strong mid-level flow will overspread the Southwest. In addition, by later in the day, lee cyclogenesis is expected to begin across eastern Colorado. The combination of these factors will lead to dry and breezy conditions across much of the southern High Plains. Each day, fuels continue to dry, and more critically dry fine fuels are present. Given winds of 20 to 25 mph and 8 to 13 percent relative humidity, expect an increase in initial attack and the potential for large fires across eastern New Mexico into the far western OK/TX Panhandles. A very dry airmass is expected from eastern Alabama into central Virginia today. Relative humidity around 20 percent and sustained surface winds of 15 mph are expected. This would generally support a large-fire threat. However, these conditions are expected across a region which saw significant rainfall in the last 48-72 hours, and therefore, fuels are not dry, and the large-fire threat should remain minimal. ..Bentley.. 03/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE FAR WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES... ...Synopsis... A mid-level closed low will shift east off the California Coast today. Ahead of this low, moderate to strong mid-level flow will overspread the Southwest. In addition, by later in the day, lee cyclogenesis is expected to begin across eastern Colorado. The combination of these factors will lead to dry and breezy conditions across much of the southern High Plains. Each day, fuels continue to dry, and more critically dry fine fuels are present. Given winds of 20 to 25 mph and 8 to 13 percent relative humidity, expect an increase in initial attack and the potential for large fires across eastern New Mexico into the far western OK/TX Panhandles. A very dry airmass is expected from eastern Alabama into central Virginia today. Relative humidity around 20 percent and sustained surface winds of 15 mph are expected. This would generally support a large-fire threat. However, these conditions are expected across a region which saw significant rainfall in the last 48-72 hours, and therefore, fuels are not dry, and the large-fire threat should remain minimal. ..Bentley.. 03/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE FAR WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES... ...Synopsis... A mid-level closed low will shift east off the California Coast today. Ahead of this low, moderate to strong mid-level flow will overspread the Southwest. In addition, by later in the day, lee cyclogenesis is expected to begin across eastern Colorado. The combination of these factors will lead to dry and breezy conditions across much of the southern High Plains. Each day, fuels continue to dry, and more critically dry fine fuels are present. Given winds of 20 to 25 mph and 8 to 13 percent relative humidity, expect an increase in initial attack and the potential for large fires across eastern New Mexico into the far western OK/TX Panhandles. A very dry airmass is expected from eastern Alabama into central Virginia today. Relative humidity around 20 percent and sustained surface winds of 15 mph are expected. This would generally support a large-fire threat. However, these conditions are expected across a region which saw significant rainfall in the last 48-72 hours, and therefore, fuels are not dry, and the large-fire threat should remain minimal. ..Bentley.. 03/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE FAR WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES... ...Synopsis... A mid-level closed low will shift east off the California Coast today. Ahead of this low, moderate to strong mid-level flow will overspread the Southwest. In addition, by later in the day, lee cyclogenesis is expected to begin across eastern Colorado. The combination of these factors will lead to dry and breezy conditions across much of the southern High Plains. Each day, fuels continue to dry, and more critically dry fine fuels are present. Given winds of 20 to 25 mph and 8 to 13 percent relative humidity, expect an increase in initial attack and the potential for large fires across eastern New Mexico into the far western OK/TX Panhandles. A very dry airmass is expected from eastern Alabama into central Virginia today. Relative humidity around 20 percent and sustained surface winds of 15 mph are expected. This would generally support a large-fire threat. However, these conditions are expected across a region which saw significant rainfall in the last 48-72 hours, and therefore, fuels are not dry, and the large-fire threat should remain minimal. ..Bentley.. 03/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat with a potential for isolated large hail, and perhaps a few isolated strong wind gusts, are expected Sunday and Sunday night from the lower Missouri Valley eastward into the mid to upper Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. ...Lower Missouri Valley/Mid to Upper Mississippi and Ohio Valleys... An anticyclonic mid-level flow pattern will be in place across the eastern two-thirds of the nation on Sunday. At the surface, a warm front is forecast to move northward through the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along and to the north of the boundary during the afternoon and evening from northeast Missouri eastward to the central Appalachians. Most of the storms will remain elevated. Additional storms may develop further to the west in parts of northwest Missouri and southeast Nebraska during the overnight period. Forecast soundings around 00Z from northern Missouri eastward to central Indiana and southwest Ohio by 00Z have MUCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Effective shear along much of this east-to-west corridor is forecast to be in the 50 to 60 knot range. This environment, combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7 to 8 C/km will likely be sufficient for an isolated large hail threat with supercells and the more intense multicells. A more confined potential for surface-based storms is expected from northern Missouri into central Illinois. These storms could obtain a wind-damage or marginal tornado threat. The severe threat may persist across parts of the region into the overnight period. After midnight, the greatest potential for isolated large hail would be in far southeast Nebraska and northwest Missouri where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. ..Broyles.. 03/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat with a potential for isolated large hail, and perhaps a few isolated strong wind gusts, are expected Sunday and Sunday night from the lower Missouri Valley eastward into the mid to upper Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. ...Lower Missouri Valley/Mid to Upper Mississippi and Ohio Valleys... An anticyclonic mid-level flow pattern will be in place across the eastern two-thirds of the nation on Sunday. At the surface, a warm front is forecast to move northward through the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along and to the north of the boundary during the afternoon and evening from northeast Missouri eastward to the central Appalachians. Most of the storms will remain elevated. Additional storms may develop further to the west in parts of northwest Missouri and southeast Nebraska during the overnight period. Forecast soundings around 00Z from northern Missouri eastward to central Indiana and southwest Ohio by 00Z have MUCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Effective shear along much of this east-to-west corridor is forecast to be in the 50 to 60 knot range. This environment, combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7 to 8 C/km will likely be sufficient for an isolated large hail threat with supercells and the more intense multicells. A more confined potential for surface-based storms is expected from northern Missouri into central Illinois. These storms could obtain a wind-damage or marginal tornado threat. The severe threat may persist across parts of the region into the overnight period. After midnight, the greatest potential for isolated large hail would be in far southeast Nebraska and northwest Missouri where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. ..Broyles.. 03/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat with a potential for isolated large hail, and perhaps a few isolated strong wind gusts, are expected Sunday and Sunday night from the lower Missouri Valley eastward into the mid to upper Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. ...Lower Missouri Valley/Mid to Upper Mississippi and Ohio Valleys... An anticyclonic mid-level flow pattern will be in place across the eastern two-thirds of the nation on Sunday. At the surface, a warm front is forecast to move northward through the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along and to the north of the boundary during the afternoon and evening from northeast Missouri eastward to the central Appalachians. Most of the storms will remain elevated. Additional storms may develop further to the west in parts of northwest Missouri and southeast Nebraska during the overnight period. Forecast soundings around 00Z from northern Missouri eastward to central Indiana and southwest Ohio by 00Z have MUCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Effective shear along much of this east-to-west corridor is forecast to be in the 50 to 60 knot range. This environment, combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7 to 8 C/km will likely be sufficient for an isolated large hail threat with supercells and the more intense multicells. A more confined potential for surface-based storms is expected from northern Missouri into central Illinois. These storms could obtain a wind-damage or marginal tornado threat. The severe threat may persist across parts of the region into the overnight period. After midnight, the greatest potential for isolated large hail would be in far southeast Nebraska and northwest Missouri where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. ..Broyles.. 03/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat with a potential for isolated large hail, and perhaps a few isolated strong wind gusts, are expected Sunday and Sunday night from the lower Missouri Valley eastward into the mid to upper Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. ...Lower Missouri Valley/Mid to Upper Mississippi and Ohio Valleys... An anticyclonic mid-level flow pattern will be in place across the eastern two-thirds of the nation on Sunday. At the surface, a warm front is forecast to move northward through the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along and to the north of the boundary during the afternoon and evening from northeast Missouri eastward to the central Appalachians. Most of the storms will remain elevated. Additional storms may develop further to the west in parts of northwest Missouri and southeast Nebraska during the overnight period. Forecast soundings around 00Z from northern Missouri eastward to central Indiana and southwest Ohio by 00Z have MUCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Effective shear along much of this east-to-west corridor is forecast to be in the 50 to 60 knot range. This environment, combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7 to 8 C/km will likely be sufficient for an isolated large hail threat with supercells and the more intense multicells. A more confined potential for surface-based storms is expected from northern Missouri into central Illinois. These storms could obtain a wind-damage or marginal tornado threat. The severe threat may persist across parts of the region into the overnight period. After midnight, the greatest potential for isolated large hail would be in far southeast Nebraska and northwest Missouri where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. ..Broyles.. 03/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat with a potential for isolated large hail, and perhaps a few isolated strong wind gusts, are expected Sunday and Sunday night from the lower Missouri Valley eastward into the mid to upper Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. ...Lower Missouri Valley/Mid to Upper Mississippi and Ohio Valleys... An anticyclonic mid-level flow pattern will be in place across the eastern two-thirds of the nation on Sunday. At the surface, a warm front is forecast to move northward through the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along and to the north of the boundary during the afternoon and evening from northeast Missouri eastward to the central Appalachians. Most of the storms will remain elevated. Additional storms may develop further to the west in parts of northwest Missouri and southeast Nebraska during the overnight period. Forecast soundings around 00Z from northern Missouri eastward to central Indiana and southwest Ohio by 00Z have MUCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Effective shear along much of this east-to-west corridor is forecast to be in the 50 to 60 knot range. This environment, combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7 to 8 C/km will likely be sufficient for an isolated large hail threat with supercells and the more intense multicells. A more confined potential for surface-based storms is expected from northern Missouri into central Illinois. These storms could obtain a wind-damage or marginal tornado threat. The severe threat may persist across parts of the region into the overnight period. After midnight, the greatest potential for isolated large hail would be in far southeast Nebraska and northwest Missouri where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. ..Broyles.. 03/30/2024 Read more

Lake Travis was at 39% capacity and down nearly 38 feet below its historical average. The low water level was affecting business for a party boat rental company. Bookings were down about 25%, and potential water goers were concerned about safety. Boat ramps were closed due to the low water. KVUE News Online (Austin, Texas), March 29, 2024

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley this afternoon/evening. Hail is the primary risk. ...Ohio Valley... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a short-wave trough over IA. This feature is forecast to advance to near the IL/IN border by 12z, before progressing across the central Appalachians/middle Atlantic by early evening. West-southwesterly LLJ will be noted across the OH Valley early in the period, but this feature will translate downstream quickly in response to the aforementioned short wave. In its wake, weak height rises should occur across the OH Valley during peak heating. Scattered thunderstorms are currently ongoing across the Midwest from eastern IA into southern WI/northern IL. This activity is driven in large part by warm advection along the nose of the LLJ. As the LLJ shifts downstream this morning, greatest concentration of convection will spread across IN/OH. This early-day activity will evolve within an air mass not particularly bouyant, but within steep midlevel lapse rates. Of more concern will be the potential for afternoon convection, albeit more isolated in nature, that evolves due to strong boundary-layer heating. Short-range guidance suggests the strongest heating will occur ahead of a front, primarily south of I70, across IN/OH into portions of WV. While forcing will be weak after the passage of the short wave, forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached within a moistening air mass that could yield SBCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. Any storms that evolve within this air mass will do so within a strongly sheared environment. The potential for a few supercells exists, and hail would be a concern given the steep lapse rates. Lack of greater forcing favors isolated storm coverage. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 03/30/2024 Read more