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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT FROM EASTERN IA INTO NORTHERN IL... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe hail is possible tonight from eastern Iowa into northern Illinois. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the outlook. Isolated hail remains possible tonight from parts of eastern IA into northern IL, as elevated convection develops and spreads eastward. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 03/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... A deep midlevel low over the eastern Pacific will approach the central CA coast tonight, as an associated baroclinic zone spreads slowly eastward/inland this afternoon/evening. Weak buoyancy within the baroclinic zone could support some embedded convection with isolated lightning flashes. A downstream speed max over CO this morning will move toward the mid MS Valley overnight, and will help maintain lee cyclogenesis today across western KS and a weak/mobile cyclone into IA/IL tonight. ...Eastern IA/northern IL tonight... A modifying Gulf of Mexico air mass is returning northward into the southern Plains, to the east of the lee cyclone in western KS. Some increase in low-level moisture in a zone of low-level warm advection, beneath midlevel lapse rates near 7.5 C/km, will support elevated thunderstorm development early tonight over eastern IA and storms will subsequently spread eastward over northern IL (immediately in advance of the weak surface cyclone and ejecting midlevel speed max). MUCAPE near 1000 J/kg, relatively cool midlevel temperatures (near -18 C at 500 mb) and modest hodograph length/curvature may support some low-end/elevated supercells capable of producing isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter before storm coverage increases and storm intensity decreases late tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT FROM EASTERN IA INTO NORTHERN IL... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe hail is possible tonight from eastern Iowa into northern Illinois. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the outlook. Isolated hail remains possible tonight from parts of eastern IA into northern IL, as elevated convection develops and spreads eastward. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 03/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... A deep midlevel low over the eastern Pacific will approach the central CA coast tonight, as an associated baroclinic zone spreads slowly eastward/inland this afternoon/evening. Weak buoyancy within the baroclinic zone could support some embedded convection with isolated lightning flashes. A downstream speed max over CO this morning will move toward the mid MS Valley overnight, and will help maintain lee cyclogenesis today across western KS and a weak/mobile cyclone into IA/IL tonight. ...Eastern IA/northern IL tonight... A modifying Gulf of Mexico air mass is returning northward into the southern Plains, to the east of the lee cyclone in western KS. Some increase in low-level moisture in a zone of low-level warm advection, beneath midlevel lapse rates near 7.5 C/km, will support elevated thunderstorm development early tonight over eastern IA and storms will subsequently spread eastward over northern IL (immediately in advance of the weak surface cyclone and ejecting midlevel speed max). MUCAPE near 1000 J/kg, relatively cool midlevel temperatures (near -18 C at 500 mb) and modest hodograph length/curvature may support some low-end/elevated supercells capable of producing isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter before storm coverage increases and storm intensity decreases late tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT FROM EASTERN IA INTO NORTHERN IL... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe hail is possible tonight from eastern Iowa into northern Illinois. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the outlook. Isolated hail remains possible tonight from parts of eastern IA into northern IL, as elevated convection develops and spreads eastward. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 03/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... A deep midlevel low over the eastern Pacific will approach the central CA coast tonight, as an associated baroclinic zone spreads slowly eastward/inland this afternoon/evening. Weak buoyancy within the baroclinic zone could support some embedded convection with isolated lightning flashes. A downstream speed max over CO this morning will move toward the mid MS Valley overnight, and will help maintain lee cyclogenesis today across western KS and a weak/mobile cyclone into IA/IL tonight. ...Eastern IA/northern IL tonight... A modifying Gulf of Mexico air mass is returning northward into the southern Plains, to the east of the lee cyclone in western KS. Some increase in low-level moisture in a zone of low-level warm advection, beneath midlevel lapse rates near 7.5 C/km, will support elevated thunderstorm development early tonight over eastern IA and storms will subsequently spread eastward over northern IL (immediately in advance of the weak surface cyclone and ejecting midlevel speed max). MUCAPE near 1000 J/kg, relatively cool midlevel temperatures (near -18 C at 500 mb) and modest hodograph length/curvature may support some low-end/elevated supercells capable of producing isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter before storm coverage increases and storm intensity decreases late tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT FROM EASTERN IA INTO NORTHERN IL... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe hail is possible tonight from eastern Iowa into northern Illinois. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the outlook. Isolated hail remains possible tonight from parts of eastern IA into northern IL, as elevated convection develops and spreads eastward. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 03/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... A deep midlevel low over the eastern Pacific will approach the central CA coast tonight, as an associated baroclinic zone spreads slowly eastward/inland this afternoon/evening. Weak buoyancy within the baroclinic zone could support some embedded convection with isolated lightning flashes. A downstream speed max over CO this morning will move toward the mid MS Valley overnight, and will help maintain lee cyclogenesis today across western KS and a weak/mobile cyclone into IA/IL tonight. ...Eastern IA/northern IL tonight... A modifying Gulf of Mexico air mass is returning northward into the southern Plains, to the east of the lee cyclone in western KS. Some increase in low-level moisture in a zone of low-level warm advection, beneath midlevel lapse rates near 7.5 C/km, will support elevated thunderstorm development early tonight over eastern IA and storms will subsequently spread eastward over northern IL (immediately in advance of the weak surface cyclone and ejecting midlevel speed max). MUCAPE near 1000 J/kg, relatively cool midlevel temperatures (near -18 C at 500 mb) and modest hodograph length/curvature may support some low-end/elevated supercells capable of producing isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter before storm coverage increases and storm intensity decreases late tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT FROM EASTERN IA INTO NORTHERN IL... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe hail is possible tonight from eastern Iowa into northern Illinois. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the outlook. Isolated hail remains possible tonight from parts of eastern IA into northern IL, as elevated convection develops and spreads eastward. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 03/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... A deep midlevel low over the eastern Pacific will approach the central CA coast tonight, as an associated baroclinic zone spreads slowly eastward/inland this afternoon/evening. Weak buoyancy within the baroclinic zone could support some embedded convection with isolated lightning flashes. A downstream speed max over CO this morning will move toward the mid MS Valley overnight, and will help maintain lee cyclogenesis today across western KS and a weak/mobile cyclone into IA/IL tonight. ...Eastern IA/northern IL tonight... A modifying Gulf of Mexico air mass is returning northward into the southern Plains, to the east of the lee cyclone in western KS. Some increase in low-level moisture in a zone of low-level warm advection, beneath midlevel lapse rates near 7.5 C/km, will support elevated thunderstorm development early tonight over eastern IA and storms will subsequently spread eastward over northern IL (immediately in advance of the weak surface cyclone and ejecting midlevel speed max). MUCAPE near 1000 J/kg, relatively cool midlevel temperatures (near -18 C at 500 mb) and modest hodograph length/curvature may support some low-end/elevated supercells capable of producing isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter before storm coverage increases and storm intensity decreases late tonight. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments/expansions were made based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus. In addition to the fire-weather risk over the southern High Plains, a shortwave trough embedded in enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will promote dry/breezy conditions from the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic states during the afternoon. While locally elevated conditions are possible, substantial rainfall over much of the area during the last week limits confidence in fuel receptiveness -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will strengthen across the Southwest on Saturday as a trough deepens and starts to shift east. This strong mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass across the southern High Plains and result in surface winds of 20 to 25 mph and relative humidity in the single digits. Dry and windy conditions on Friday will dry fuels and increase fuel receptiveness by Saturday with all fine fuels likely critically dry across portions of northeast New Mexico into the western TX/OK Panhandles. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments/expansions were made based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus. In addition to the fire-weather risk over the southern High Plains, a shortwave trough embedded in enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will promote dry/breezy conditions from the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic states during the afternoon. While locally elevated conditions are possible, substantial rainfall over much of the area during the last week limits confidence in fuel receptiveness -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will strengthen across the Southwest on Saturday as a trough deepens and starts to shift east. This strong mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass across the southern High Plains and result in surface winds of 20 to 25 mph and relative humidity in the single digits. Dry and windy conditions on Friday will dry fuels and increase fuel receptiveness by Saturday with all fine fuels likely critically dry across portions of northeast New Mexico into the western TX/OK Panhandles. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments/expansions were made based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus. In addition to the fire-weather risk over the southern High Plains, a shortwave trough embedded in enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will promote dry/breezy conditions from the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic states during the afternoon. While locally elevated conditions are possible, substantial rainfall over much of the area during the last week limits confidence in fuel receptiveness -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will strengthen across the Southwest on Saturday as a trough deepens and starts to shift east. This strong mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass across the southern High Plains and result in surface winds of 20 to 25 mph and relative humidity in the single digits. Dry and windy conditions on Friday will dry fuels and increase fuel receptiveness by Saturday with all fine fuels likely critically dry across portions of northeast New Mexico into the western TX/OK Panhandles. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments/expansions were made based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus. In addition to the fire-weather risk over the southern High Plains, a shortwave trough embedded in enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will promote dry/breezy conditions from the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic states during the afternoon. While locally elevated conditions are possible, substantial rainfall over much of the area during the last week limits confidence in fuel receptiveness -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will strengthen across the Southwest on Saturday as a trough deepens and starts to shift east. This strong mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass across the southern High Plains and result in surface winds of 20 to 25 mph and relative humidity in the single digits. Dry and windy conditions on Friday will dry fuels and increase fuel receptiveness by Saturday with all fine fuels likely critically dry across portions of northeast New Mexico into the western TX/OK Panhandles. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments/expansions were made based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus. In addition to the fire-weather risk over the southern High Plains, a shortwave trough embedded in enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will promote dry/breezy conditions from the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic states during the afternoon. While locally elevated conditions are possible, substantial rainfall over much of the area during the last week limits confidence in fuel receptiveness -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will strengthen across the Southwest on Saturday as a trough deepens and starts to shift east. This strong mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass across the southern High Plains and result in surface winds of 20 to 25 mph and relative humidity in the single digits. Dry and windy conditions on Friday will dry fuels and increase fuel receptiveness by Saturday with all fine fuels likely critically dry across portions of northeast New Mexico into the western TX/OK Panhandles. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough is forecast to shift slowly eastward across the West on Saturday, as an embedded deep-layer cyclone moves southeastward off of the southern CA coast. Downstream of this trough, modest upper-level ridging will build across parts of the Great Plains, while broad northwesterly flow aloft persists from parts of the Midwest into the Ohio Valley. Embedded within the northwesterly flow, a low-amplitude shortwave trough and related surface low are forecast to move from IL toward the Mid Atlantic, as a trailing cold front sags into parts of the OH Valley. ...Parts of the lower MO Valley into the OH Valley... MLCAPE increasing to near or above 500 J/kg may result in diurnal storm development across the OH Valley vicinity, along/ahead of the cold front. Later Saturday night, elevated convection may develop from MO into parts of IL, within a low-level warm-advection regime. While deep-layer shear will be conditionally favorable for a strong storm or two with both the diurnal OH Valley convection and nocturnal MO convection, storm intensity may tend to be limited by weak large-scale ascent and generally modest buoyancy. ..Dean.. 03/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough is forecast to shift slowly eastward across the West on Saturday, as an embedded deep-layer cyclone moves southeastward off of the southern CA coast. Downstream of this trough, modest upper-level ridging will build across parts of the Great Plains, while broad northwesterly flow aloft persists from parts of the Midwest into the Ohio Valley. Embedded within the northwesterly flow, a low-amplitude shortwave trough and related surface low are forecast to move from IL toward the Mid Atlantic, as a trailing cold front sags into parts of the OH Valley. ...Parts of the lower MO Valley into the OH Valley... MLCAPE increasing to near or above 500 J/kg may result in diurnal storm development across the OH Valley vicinity, along/ahead of the cold front. Later Saturday night, elevated convection may develop from MO into parts of IL, within a low-level warm-advection regime. While deep-layer shear will be conditionally favorable for a strong storm or two with both the diurnal OH Valley convection and nocturnal MO convection, storm intensity may tend to be limited by weak large-scale ascent and generally modest buoyancy. ..Dean.. 03/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough is forecast to shift slowly eastward across the West on Saturday, as an embedded deep-layer cyclone moves southeastward off of the southern CA coast. Downstream of this trough, modest upper-level ridging will build across parts of the Great Plains, while broad northwesterly flow aloft persists from parts of the Midwest into the Ohio Valley. Embedded within the northwesterly flow, a low-amplitude shortwave trough and related surface low are forecast to move from IL toward the Mid Atlantic, as a trailing cold front sags into parts of the OH Valley. ...Parts of the lower MO Valley into the OH Valley... MLCAPE increasing to near or above 500 J/kg may result in diurnal storm development across the OH Valley vicinity, along/ahead of the cold front. Later Saturday night, elevated convection may develop from MO into parts of IL, within a low-level warm-advection regime. While deep-layer shear will be conditionally favorable for a strong storm or two with both the diurnal OH Valley convection and nocturnal MO convection, storm intensity may tend to be limited by weak large-scale ascent and generally modest buoyancy. ..Dean.. 03/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough is forecast to shift slowly eastward across the West on Saturday, as an embedded deep-layer cyclone moves southeastward off of the southern CA coast. Downstream of this trough, modest upper-level ridging will build across parts of the Great Plains, while broad northwesterly flow aloft persists from parts of the Midwest into the Ohio Valley. Embedded within the northwesterly flow, a low-amplitude shortwave trough and related surface low are forecast to move from IL toward the Mid Atlantic, as a trailing cold front sags into parts of the OH Valley. ...Parts of the lower MO Valley into the OH Valley... MLCAPE increasing to near or above 500 J/kg may result in diurnal storm development across the OH Valley vicinity, along/ahead of the cold front. Later Saturday night, elevated convection may develop from MO into parts of IL, within a low-level warm-advection regime. While deep-layer shear will be conditionally favorable for a strong storm or two with both the diurnal OH Valley convection and nocturnal MO convection, storm intensity may tend to be limited by weak large-scale ascent and generally modest buoyancy. ..Dean.. 03/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough is forecast to shift slowly eastward across the West on Saturday, as an embedded deep-layer cyclone moves southeastward off of the southern CA coast. Downstream of this trough, modest upper-level ridging will build across parts of the Great Plains, while broad northwesterly flow aloft persists from parts of the Midwest into the Ohio Valley. Embedded within the northwesterly flow, a low-amplitude shortwave trough and related surface low are forecast to move from IL toward the Mid Atlantic, as a trailing cold front sags into parts of the OH Valley. ...Parts of the lower MO Valley into the OH Valley... MLCAPE increasing to near or above 500 J/kg may result in diurnal storm development across the OH Valley vicinity, along/ahead of the cold front. Later Saturday night, elevated convection may develop from MO into parts of IL, within a low-level warm-advection regime. While deep-layer shear will be conditionally favorable for a strong storm or two with both the diurnal OH Valley convection and nocturnal MO convection, storm intensity may tend to be limited by weak large-scale ascent and generally modest buoyancy. ..Dean.. 03/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough is forecast to shift slowly eastward across the West on Saturday, as an embedded deep-layer cyclone moves southeastward off of the southern CA coast. Downstream of this trough, modest upper-level ridging will build across parts of the Great Plains, while broad northwesterly flow aloft persists from parts of the Midwest into the Ohio Valley. Embedded within the northwesterly flow, a low-amplitude shortwave trough and related surface low are forecast to move from IL toward the Mid Atlantic, as a trailing cold front sags into parts of the OH Valley. ...Parts of the lower MO Valley into the OH Valley... MLCAPE increasing to near or above 500 J/kg may result in diurnal storm development across the OH Valley vicinity, along/ahead of the cold front. Later Saturday night, elevated convection may develop from MO into parts of IL, within a low-level warm-advection regime. While deep-layer shear will be conditionally favorable for a strong storm or two with both the diurnal OH Valley convection and nocturnal MO convection, storm intensity may tend to be limited by weak large-scale ascent and generally modest buoyancy. ..Dean.. 03/29/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS TRANS PECOS... An additional Critical area was added for portions of far southeast/south-central NM into the TX Trans-Pecos region. Similar to areas farther north, 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid single-digit RH is expected this afternoon -- aided by the strong downsloping west of a lee trough/dryline. Given increasingly dry fine fuels over the area, critical conditions are expected this afternoon. Farther east, an Elevated area was added along/in the lee of the Blue Ridge Mountains, to include the Shenandoah Valley. Strong deep-layer west-northwest flow across the terrain and an enhanced pressure gradient along the northern periphery of surface high pressure over the southeast, will contribute to breezy/gusty northwesterly surface winds and 20-30 percent afternoon RH. Fine fuels may be modestly receptive to fire-spread in this area, as it is along the western periphery of the more-substantial QPE footprint. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 03/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move into the Plains today with cyclogenesis expected across western Kansas. This will tighten the surface pressure gradient across the southern Plains and lead to windy conditions. The strongest winds are expected across eastern New Mexico into the western Texas Panhandle where moderate (50 to 60 knot) mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass. In this region, sustained surface winds of 25 mph are expected with relative humidity in the single digits. Fuels in this region were quite moist over the past week, but several days of dry weather have started to dry fuels, especially fine fuels. Therefore, some large-fire threat will exist across eastern New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS TRANS PECOS... An additional Critical area was added for portions of far southeast/south-central NM into the TX Trans-Pecos region. Similar to areas farther north, 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid single-digit RH is expected this afternoon -- aided by the strong downsloping west of a lee trough/dryline. Given increasingly dry fine fuels over the area, critical conditions are expected this afternoon. Farther east, an Elevated area was added along/in the lee of the Blue Ridge Mountains, to include the Shenandoah Valley. Strong deep-layer west-northwest flow across the terrain and an enhanced pressure gradient along the northern periphery of surface high pressure over the southeast, will contribute to breezy/gusty northwesterly surface winds and 20-30 percent afternoon RH. Fine fuels may be modestly receptive to fire-spread in this area, as it is along the western periphery of the more-substantial QPE footprint. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 03/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move into the Plains today with cyclogenesis expected across western Kansas. This will tighten the surface pressure gradient across the southern Plains and lead to windy conditions. The strongest winds are expected across eastern New Mexico into the western Texas Panhandle where moderate (50 to 60 knot) mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass. In this region, sustained surface winds of 25 mph are expected with relative humidity in the single digits. Fuels in this region were quite moist over the past week, but several days of dry weather have started to dry fuels, especially fine fuels. Therefore, some large-fire threat will exist across eastern New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS TRANS PECOS... An additional Critical area was added for portions of far southeast/south-central NM into the TX Trans-Pecos region. Similar to areas farther north, 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid single-digit RH is expected this afternoon -- aided by the strong downsloping west of a lee trough/dryline. Given increasingly dry fine fuels over the area, critical conditions are expected this afternoon. Farther east, an Elevated area was added along/in the lee of the Blue Ridge Mountains, to include the Shenandoah Valley. Strong deep-layer west-northwest flow across the terrain and an enhanced pressure gradient along the northern periphery of surface high pressure over the southeast, will contribute to breezy/gusty northwesterly surface winds and 20-30 percent afternoon RH. Fine fuels may be modestly receptive to fire-spread in this area, as it is along the western periphery of the more-substantial QPE footprint. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 03/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move into the Plains today with cyclogenesis expected across western Kansas. This will tighten the surface pressure gradient across the southern Plains and lead to windy conditions. The strongest winds are expected across eastern New Mexico into the western Texas Panhandle where moderate (50 to 60 knot) mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass. In this region, sustained surface winds of 25 mph are expected with relative humidity in the single digits. Fuels in this region were quite moist over the past week, but several days of dry weather have started to dry fuels, especially fine fuels. Therefore, some large-fire threat will exist across eastern New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS TRANS PECOS... An additional Critical area was added for portions of far southeast/south-central NM into the TX Trans-Pecos region. Similar to areas farther north, 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid single-digit RH is expected this afternoon -- aided by the strong downsloping west of a lee trough/dryline. Given increasingly dry fine fuels over the area, critical conditions are expected this afternoon. Farther east, an Elevated area was added along/in the lee of the Blue Ridge Mountains, to include the Shenandoah Valley. Strong deep-layer west-northwest flow across the terrain and an enhanced pressure gradient along the northern periphery of surface high pressure over the southeast, will contribute to breezy/gusty northwesterly surface winds and 20-30 percent afternoon RH. Fine fuels may be modestly receptive to fire-spread in this area, as it is along the western periphery of the more-substantial QPE footprint. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 03/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move into the Plains today with cyclogenesis expected across western Kansas. This will tighten the surface pressure gradient across the southern Plains and lead to windy conditions. The strongest winds are expected across eastern New Mexico into the western Texas Panhandle where moderate (50 to 60 knot) mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass. In this region, sustained surface winds of 25 mph are expected with relative humidity in the single digits. Fuels in this region were quite moist over the past week, but several days of dry weather have started to dry fuels, especially fine fuels. Therefore, some large-fire threat will exist across eastern New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more