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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 04/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... An expansive post-frontal air mass, characterized by cool surface temperatures and weak surface winds, will encompass much of the central and eastern CONUS, limiting fire-weather concerns. Dry conditions will persist over the Southwest, though weak surface winds and marginal fuels will also limit fire-weather potential here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 04/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... An expansive post-frontal air mass, characterized by cool surface temperatures and weak surface winds, will encompass much of the central and eastern CONUS, limiting fire-weather concerns. Dry conditions will persist over the Southwest, though weak surface winds and marginal fuels will also limit fire-weather potential here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0493 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0493 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Areas affected...Eastern South Carolina into far southeast North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 191707Z - 191900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing off an outflow boundary and surface trough may intensify enough to pose a severe hail/damaging wind risk over the next few hours. Watch issuance is not expected given the localized nature of the threat. DISCUSSION...Deep convective initiation is underway across eastern SC as thunderstorms develop along an outflow boundary from early-morning convection. Just ahead of the outflow, deepening cumulus is noted along a surface trough. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop across eastern SC and southeast NC within the next 1-2 hours as temperatures continue to warm into the low 80s along and downstream of these surface boundaries. Thermodynamically, sufficient buoyancy is evidently in place to support deep updrafts; however, more isolated convection has been short-lived, likely owing to lingering capping and modest (6-7 C/km) mid-level lapse rates. Longer-lived convection will likely be tied to stronger forcing along the outflow/trough that will most likely take on a clustered/linear storm mode. Regional VWP data and forecast hodographs show somewhat meager elongation of the deep-layer wind profile, but sufficient effective bulk shear (around 30-35 knots) should support some organization of clusters. Consequently, this activity may pose the threat for large hail (most likely between 0.5 to 1.25 inch in diameter) and damaging winds - especially by the mid to late afternoon hours as low-level lapse rates steepen downstream of the developing storms. ..Moore/Smith.. 04/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE... LAT...LON 33108068 33298022 33818005 34338011 34598014 34908010 35197986 35357934 35327857 35287816 35067796 34757796 34397803 34007822 33797841 33557877 33157922 32917954 32687984 32598005 32538026 32628049 32908073 33108068 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS AND FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA ACROSS GEORGIA AND INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms capable of strong wind gusts and hail will be possible on Saturday across much of central Texas, and during the afternoon from southern Alabama across parts of Georgia and into southern South Carolina. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move east from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, as the parent upper low deepens over Hudson Bay. Moderate westerly flow aloft will remain from the central Plains to the East Coast, with a low-latitude wave moving from AZ/NM across the southern Plains through Saturday night. At the surface, high pressure will extend south and eastward across much of the central and eastern CONUS, with a front from the coastal Carolinas to the northern Gulf Coast and into southern TX. A moist air mass will remain south of this boundary in TX, where lift north of the boundary will lead to increase rain and thunderstorms. ...TX... Primarily elevated thunderstorms are likely through much of the day over parts of central and northern TX, with activity extending east toward northern MS. This activity will be supported by modest warm advection just above the cool post-frontal air mass. Instability may still be substantial, especially just north of the surface front. As such, a few hail reports will be possible over a relatively large area, with a conditional risk of strong gusts closer to the front. ...Coastal SC into southern GA and AL... The surface boundary will extend roughly from coastal SC across GA and into southern AL during the afternoon, with strong heating expected. Although gradual drying will occur due to westerly flow, strong heating and sufficient moisture will still result in an unstable air mass, and eastward-moving storms producing outflow are anticipated. Given the steep low-level lapse rates, 1000-1500 SBCAPE and sufficient deep-layer mean winds, isolated damaging gusts will be possible. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS AND FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA ACROSS GEORGIA AND INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms capable of strong wind gusts and hail will be possible on Saturday across much of central Texas, and during the afternoon from southern Alabama across parts of Georgia and into southern South Carolina. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move east from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, as the parent upper low deepens over Hudson Bay. Moderate westerly flow aloft will remain from the central Plains to the East Coast, with a low-latitude wave moving from AZ/NM across the southern Plains through Saturday night. At the surface, high pressure will extend south and eastward across much of the central and eastern CONUS, with a front from the coastal Carolinas to the northern Gulf Coast and into southern TX. A moist air mass will remain south of this boundary in TX, where lift north of the boundary will lead to increase rain and thunderstorms. ...TX... Primarily elevated thunderstorms are likely through much of the day over parts of central and northern TX, with activity extending east toward northern MS. This activity will be supported by modest warm advection just above the cool post-frontal air mass. Instability may still be substantial, especially just north of the surface front. As such, a few hail reports will be possible over a relatively large area, with a conditional risk of strong gusts closer to the front. ...Coastal SC into southern GA and AL... The surface boundary will extend roughly from coastal SC across GA and into southern AL during the afternoon, with strong heating expected. Although gradual drying will occur due to westerly flow, strong heating and sufficient moisture will still result in an unstable air mass, and eastward-moving storms producing outflow are anticipated. Given the steep low-level lapse rates, 1000-1500 SBCAPE and sufficient deep-layer mean winds, isolated damaging gusts will be possible. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS AND FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA ACROSS GEORGIA AND INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms capable of strong wind gusts and hail will be possible on Saturday across much of central Texas, and during the afternoon from southern Alabama across parts of Georgia and into southern South Carolina. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move east from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, as the parent upper low deepens over Hudson Bay. Moderate westerly flow aloft will remain from the central Plains to the East Coast, with a low-latitude wave moving from AZ/NM across the southern Plains through Saturday night. At the surface, high pressure will extend south and eastward across much of the central and eastern CONUS, with a front from the coastal Carolinas to the northern Gulf Coast and into southern TX. A moist air mass will remain south of this boundary in TX, where lift north of the boundary will lead to increase rain and thunderstorms. ...TX... Primarily elevated thunderstorms are likely through much of the day over parts of central and northern TX, with activity extending east toward northern MS. This activity will be supported by modest warm advection just above the cool post-frontal air mass. Instability may still be substantial, especially just north of the surface front. As such, a few hail reports will be possible over a relatively large area, with a conditional risk of strong gusts closer to the front. ...Coastal SC into southern GA and AL... The surface boundary will extend roughly from coastal SC across GA and into southern AL during the afternoon, with strong heating expected. Although gradual drying will occur due to westerly flow, strong heating and sufficient moisture will still result in an unstable air mass, and eastward-moving storms producing outflow are anticipated. Given the steep low-level lapse rates, 1000-1500 SBCAPE and sufficient deep-layer mean winds, isolated damaging gusts will be possible. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS AND FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA ACROSS GEORGIA AND INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms capable of strong wind gusts and hail will be possible on Saturday across much of central Texas, and during the afternoon from southern Alabama across parts of Georgia and into southern South Carolina. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move east from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, as the parent upper low deepens over Hudson Bay. Moderate westerly flow aloft will remain from the central Plains to the East Coast, with a low-latitude wave moving from AZ/NM across the southern Plains through Saturday night. At the surface, high pressure will extend south and eastward across much of the central and eastern CONUS, with a front from the coastal Carolinas to the northern Gulf Coast and into southern TX. A moist air mass will remain south of this boundary in TX, where lift north of the boundary will lead to increase rain and thunderstorms. ...TX... Primarily elevated thunderstorms are likely through much of the day over parts of central and northern TX, with activity extending east toward northern MS. This activity will be supported by modest warm advection just above the cool post-frontal air mass. Instability may still be substantial, especially just north of the surface front. As such, a few hail reports will be possible over a relatively large area, with a conditional risk of strong gusts closer to the front. ...Coastal SC into southern GA and AL... The surface boundary will extend roughly from coastal SC across GA and into southern AL during the afternoon, with strong heating expected. Although gradual drying will occur due to westerly flow, strong heating and sufficient moisture will still result in an unstable air mass, and eastward-moving storms producing outflow are anticipated. Given the steep low-level lapse rates, 1000-1500 SBCAPE and sufficient deep-layer mean winds, isolated damaging gusts will be possible. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS AND FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA ACROSS GEORGIA AND INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms capable of strong wind gusts and hail will be possible on Saturday across much of central Texas, and during the afternoon from southern Alabama across parts of Georgia and into southern South Carolina. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move east from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, as the parent upper low deepens over Hudson Bay. Moderate westerly flow aloft will remain from the central Plains to the East Coast, with a low-latitude wave moving from AZ/NM across the southern Plains through Saturday night. At the surface, high pressure will extend south and eastward across much of the central and eastern CONUS, with a front from the coastal Carolinas to the northern Gulf Coast and into southern TX. A moist air mass will remain south of this boundary in TX, where lift north of the boundary will lead to increase rain and thunderstorms. ...TX... Primarily elevated thunderstorms are likely through much of the day over parts of central and northern TX, with activity extending east toward northern MS. This activity will be supported by modest warm advection just above the cool post-frontal air mass. Instability may still be substantial, especially just north of the surface front. As such, a few hail reports will be possible over a relatively large area, with a conditional risk of strong gusts closer to the front. ...Coastal SC into southern GA and AL... The surface boundary will extend roughly from coastal SC across GA and into southern AL during the afternoon, with strong heating expected. Although gradual drying will occur due to westerly flow, strong heating and sufficient moisture will still result in an unstable air mass, and eastward-moving storms producing outflow are anticipated. Given the steep low-level lapse rates, 1000-1500 SBCAPE and sufficient deep-layer mean winds, isolated damaging gusts will be possible. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS AND FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA ACROSS GEORGIA AND INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms capable of strong wind gusts and hail will be possible on Saturday across much of central Texas, and during the afternoon from southern Alabama across parts of Georgia and into southern South Carolina. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move east from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, as the parent upper low deepens over Hudson Bay. Moderate westerly flow aloft will remain from the central Plains to the East Coast, with a low-latitude wave moving from AZ/NM across the southern Plains through Saturday night. At the surface, high pressure will extend south and eastward across much of the central and eastern CONUS, with a front from the coastal Carolinas to the northern Gulf Coast and into southern TX. A moist air mass will remain south of this boundary in TX, where lift north of the boundary will lead to increase rain and thunderstorms. ...TX... Primarily elevated thunderstorms are likely through much of the day over parts of central and northern TX, with activity extending east toward northern MS. This activity will be supported by modest warm advection just above the cool post-frontal air mass. Instability may still be substantial, especially just north of the surface front. As such, a few hail reports will be possible over a relatively large area, with a conditional risk of strong gusts closer to the front. ...Coastal SC into southern GA and AL... The surface boundary will extend roughly from coastal SC across GA and into southern AL during the afternoon, with strong heating expected. Although gradual drying will occur due to westerly flow, strong heating and sufficient moisture will still result in an unstable air mass, and eastward-moving storms producing outflow are anticipated. Given the steep low-level lapse rates, 1000-1500 SBCAPE and sufficient deep-layer mean winds, isolated damaging gusts will be possible. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS AND FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA ACROSS GEORGIA AND INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms capable of strong wind gusts and hail will be possible on Saturday across much of central Texas, and during the afternoon from southern Alabama across parts of Georgia and into southern South Carolina. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move east from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, as the parent upper low deepens over Hudson Bay. Moderate westerly flow aloft will remain from the central Plains to the East Coast, with a low-latitude wave moving from AZ/NM across the southern Plains through Saturday night. At the surface, high pressure will extend south and eastward across much of the central and eastern CONUS, with a front from the coastal Carolinas to the northern Gulf Coast and into southern TX. A moist air mass will remain south of this boundary in TX, where lift north of the boundary will lead to increase rain and thunderstorms. ...TX... Primarily elevated thunderstorms are likely through much of the day over parts of central and northern TX, with activity extending east toward northern MS. This activity will be supported by modest warm advection just above the cool post-frontal air mass. Instability may still be substantial, especially just north of the surface front. As such, a few hail reports will be possible over a relatively large area, with a conditional risk of strong gusts closer to the front. ...Coastal SC into southern GA and AL... The surface boundary will extend roughly from coastal SC across GA and into southern AL during the afternoon, with strong heating expected. Although gradual drying will occur due to westerly flow, strong heating and sufficient moisture will still result in an unstable air mass, and eastward-moving storms producing outflow are anticipated. Given the steep low-level lapse rates, 1000-1500 SBCAPE and sufficient deep-layer mean winds, isolated damaging gusts will be possible. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast this afternoon into the early evening. ...Southeast this afternoon/evening... Late morning water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving east across the southern Appalachians. This feature will reach the VA/NC coast early tonight. Farther northwest, a closed midlevel low will evolve into an open wave as it moves eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. An associated surface cold front will continue to move slowly southeastward from TX to the southern Appalachians. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible with the disturbance over the Carolinas this afternoon. Other than the front pushing into portions of AL/GA, little larger-scale forcing for ascent is expected farther southwest. Additional storm development will be associated with the front and orographic lift along the spine of the Appalachians. Overall weak-moderate buoyancy, modest deep-layer shear and steepening low-level lapse rates will support some potential semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...TX through tonight... --No change needed to previous forecast discussion-- Weak upslope flow along a slow moving cold front will favor thunderstorm development over the east slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental/Sierra del Burro this afternoon, with the potential for a couple of supercells. However, it is not clear that storm motions will bring the convection across the Rio Grande, and lingering convective inhibition suggests storms will likely weaken if they manage to cross the border. Later tonight in northwest TX, elevated convection will likely develop atop the frontal surface, in a warm advection regime downstream from a weak shortwave trough over AZ/NM. Some small hail may occur given lingering steep midlevel lapse rates and modest cloud-layer shear, but the potential for severe hail appears too low to warrant an outlook area. ..Smith/Moore.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast this afternoon into the early evening. ...Southeast this afternoon/evening... Late morning water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving east across the southern Appalachians. This feature will reach the VA/NC coast early tonight. Farther northwest, a closed midlevel low will evolve into an open wave as it moves eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. An associated surface cold front will continue to move slowly southeastward from TX to the southern Appalachians. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible with the disturbance over the Carolinas this afternoon. Other than the front pushing into portions of AL/GA, little larger-scale forcing for ascent is expected farther southwest. Additional storm development will be associated with the front and orographic lift along the spine of the Appalachians. Overall weak-moderate buoyancy, modest deep-layer shear and steepening low-level lapse rates will support some potential semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...TX through tonight... --No change needed to previous forecast discussion-- Weak upslope flow along a slow moving cold front will favor thunderstorm development over the east slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental/Sierra del Burro this afternoon, with the potential for a couple of supercells. However, it is not clear that storm motions will bring the convection across the Rio Grande, and lingering convective inhibition suggests storms will likely weaken if they manage to cross the border. Later tonight in northwest TX, elevated convection will likely develop atop the frontal surface, in a warm advection regime downstream from a weak shortwave trough over AZ/NM. Some small hail may occur given lingering steep midlevel lapse rates and modest cloud-layer shear, but the potential for severe hail appears too low to warrant an outlook area. ..Smith/Moore.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast this afternoon into the early evening. ...Southeast this afternoon/evening... Late morning water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving east across the southern Appalachians. This feature will reach the VA/NC coast early tonight. Farther northwest, a closed midlevel low will evolve into an open wave as it moves eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. An associated surface cold front will continue to move slowly southeastward from TX to the southern Appalachians. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible with the disturbance over the Carolinas this afternoon. Other than the front pushing into portions of AL/GA, little larger-scale forcing for ascent is expected farther southwest. Additional storm development will be associated with the front and orographic lift along the spine of the Appalachians. Overall weak-moderate buoyancy, modest deep-layer shear and steepening low-level lapse rates will support some potential semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...TX through tonight... --No change needed to previous forecast discussion-- Weak upslope flow along a slow moving cold front will favor thunderstorm development over the east slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental/Sierra del Burro this afternoon, with the potential for a couple of supercells. However, it is not clear that storm motions will bring the convection across the Rio Grande, and lingering convective inhibition suggests storms will likely weaken if they manage to cross the border. Later tonight in northwest TX, elevated convection will likely develop atop the frontal surface, in a warm advection regime downstream from a weak shortwave trough over AZ/NM. Some small hail may occur given lingering steep midlevel lapse rates and modest cloud-layer shear, but the potential for severe hail appears too low to warrant an outlook area. ..Smith/Moore.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast this afternoon into the early evening. ...Southeast this afternoon/evening... Late morning water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving east across the southern Appalachians. This feature will reach the VA/NC coast early tonight. Farther northwest, a closed midlevel low will evolve into an open wave as it moves eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. An associated surface cold front will continue to move slowly southeastward from TX to the southern Appalachians. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible with the disturbance over the Carolinas this afternoon. Other than the front pushing into portions of AL/GA, little larger-scale forcing for ascent is expected farther southwest. Additional storm development will be associated with the front and orographic lift along the spine of the Appalachians. Overall weak-moderate buoyancy, modest deep-layer shear and steepening low-level lapse rates will support some potential semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...TX through tonight... --No change needed to previous forecast discussion-- Weak upslope flow along a slow moving cold front will favor thunderstorm development over the east slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental/Sierra del Burro this afternoon, with the potential for a couple of supercells. However, it is not clear that storm motions will bring the convection across the Rio Grande, and lingering convective inhibition suggests storms will likely weaken if they manage to cross the border. Later tonight in northwest TX, elevated convection will likely develop atop the frontal surface, in a warm advection regime downstream from a weak shortwave trough over AZ/NM. Some small hail may occur given lingering steep midlevel lapse rates and modest cloud-layer shear, but the potential for severe hail appears too low to warrant an outlook area. ..Smith/Moore.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast this afternoon into the early evening. ...Southeast this afternoon/evening... Late morning water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving east across the southern Appalachians. This feature will reach the VA/NC coast early tonight. Farther northwest, a closed midlevel low will evolve into an open wave as it moves eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. An associated surface cold front will continue to move slowly southeastward from TX to the southern Appalachians. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible with the disturbance over the Carolinas this afternoon. Other than the front pushing into portions of AL/GA, little larger-scale forcing for ascent is expected farther southwest. Additional storm development will be associated with the front and orographic lift along the spine of the Appalachians. Overall weak-moderate buoyancy, modest deep-layer shear and steepening low-level lapse rates will support some potential semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...TX through tonight... --No change needed to previous forecast discussion-- Weak upslope flow along a slow moving cold front will favor thunderstorm development over the east slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental/Sierra del Burro this afternoon, with the potential for a couple of supercells. However, it is not clear that storm motions will bring the convection across the Rio Grande, and lingering convective inhibition suggests storms will likely weaken if they manage to cross the border. Later tonight in northwest TX, elevated convection will likely develop atop the frontal surface, in a warm advection regime downstream from a weak shortwave trough over AZ/NM. Some small hail may occur given lingering steep midlevel lapse rates and modest cloud-layer shear, but the potential for severe hail appears too low to warrant an outlook area. ..Smith/Moore.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast this afternoon into the early evening. ...Southeast this afternoon/evening... Late morning water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving east across the southern Appalachians. This feature will reach the VA/NC coast early tonight. Farther northwest, a closed midlevel low will evolve into an open wave as it moves eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. An associated surface cold front will continue to move slowly southeastward from TX to the southern Appalachians. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible with the disturbance over the Carolinas this afternoon. Other than the front pushing into portions of AL/GA, little larger-scale forcing for ascent is expected farther southwest. Additional storm development will be associated with the front and orographic lift along the spine of the Appalachians. Overall weak-moderate buoyancy, modest deep-layer shear and steepening low-level lapse rates will support some potential semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...TX through tonight... --No change needed to previous forecast discussion-- Weak upslope flow along a slow moving cold front will favor thunderstorm development over the east slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental/Sierra del Burro this afternoon, with the potential for a couple of supercells. However, it is not clear that storm motions will bring the convection across the Rio Grande, and lingering convective inhibition suggests storms will likely weaken if they manage to cross the border. Later tonight in northwest TX, elevated convection will likely develop atop the frontal surface, in a warm advection regime downstream from a weak shortwave trough over AZ/NM. Some small hail may occur given lingering steep midlevel lapse rates and modest cloud-layer shear, but the potential for severe hail appears too low to warrant an outlook area. ..Smith/Moore.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast this afternoon into the early evening. ...Southeast this afternoon/evening... Late morning water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving east across the southern Appalachians. This feature will reach the VA/NC coast early tonight. Farther northwest, a closed midlevel low will evolve into an open wave as it moves eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. An associated surface cold front will continue to move slowly southeastward from TX to the southern Appalachians. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible with the disturbance over the Carolinas this afternoon. Other than the front pushing into portions of AL/GA, little larger-scale forcing for ascent is expected farther southwest. Additional storm development will be associated with the front and orographic lift along the spine of the Appalachians. Overall weak-moderate buoyancy, modest deep-layer shear and steepening low-level lapse rates will support some potential semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...TX through tonight... --No change needed to previous forecast discussion-- Weak upslope flow along a slow moving cold front will favor thunderstorm development over the east slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental/Sierra del Burro this afternoon, with the potential for a couple of supercells. However, it is not clear that storm motions will bring the convection across the Rio Grande, and lingering convective inhibition suggests storms will likely weaken if they manage to cross the border. Later tonight in northwest TX, elevated convection will likely develop atop the frontal surface, in a warm advection regime downstream from a weak shortwave trough over AZ/NM. Some small hail may occur given lingering steep midlevel lapse rates and modest cloud-layer shear, but the potential for severe hail appears too low to warrant an outlook area. ..Smith/Moore.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast this afternoon into the early evening. ...Southeast this afternoon/evening... Late morning water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving east across the southern Appalachians. This feature will reach the VA/NC coast early tonight. Farther northwest, a closed midlevel low will evolve into an open wave as it moves eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. An associated surface cold front will continue to move slowly southeastward from TX to the southern Appalachians. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible with the disturbance over the Carolinas this afternoon. Other than the front pushing into portions of AL/GA, little larger-scale forcing for ascent is expected farther southwest. Additional storm development will be associated with the front and orographic lift along the spine of the Appalachians. Overall weak-moderate buoyancy, modest deep-layer shear and steepening low-level lapse rates will support some potential semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...TX through tonight... --No change needed to previous forecast discussion-- Weak upslope flow along a slow moving cold front will favor thunderstorm development over the east slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental/Sierra del Burro this afternoon, with the potential for a couple of supercells. However, it is not clear that storm motions will bring the convection across the Rio Grande, and lingering convective inhibition suggests storms will likely weaken if they manage to cross the border. Later tonight in northwest TX, elevated convection will likely develop atop the frontal surface, in a warm advection regime downstream from a weak shortwave trough over AZ/NM. Some small hail may occur given lingering steep midlevel lapse rates and modest cloud-layer shear, but the potential for severe hail appears too low to warrant an outlook area. ..Smith/Moore.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 04/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak/low-amplitude southern-stream trough will track eastward across the Southwest, encouraging breezy/gusty southwesterly winds amid a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across the region. While elevated meteorological conditions are likely across portions of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon, marginal fuels should keep the fire-weather threat fairly localized -- precluding highlights at this time. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a limited overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions will limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 04/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak/low-amplitude southern-stream trough will track eastward across the Southwest, encouraging breezy/gusty southwesterly winds amid a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across the region. While elevated meteorological conditions are likely across portions of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon, marginal fuels should keep the fire-weather threat fairly localized -- precluding highlights at this time. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a limited overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions will limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more