Aggregator

MD 0497 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR EAST-CENTRAL MS...NORTHERN/CENTRAL AL...AND NORTHERN GA
Mesoscale Discussion 0497 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Areas affected...Portions of far east-central MS...northern/central AL...and northern GA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 192154Z - 192330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple loosely organized storms capable of marginally severe hail and locally damaging gusts are possible for the next couple hours. Watch not expected. DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are developing across portions of northern AL this afternoon, ahead of an outflow-augmented cold front draped across the region. Attempts at convective initiation are also evident over far east-central MS and northern GA. Antecedent heating/destabilization of a moist boundary layer (upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints) has yielded moderate surface-based instability ahead of the front. This may support a couple loosely organized multicells and transient supercell structures, given 30-35 kt of effective shear -- characterized by a mostly straight hodograph (with weak low-level shear). Therefore, marginally severe hail (near 1 inch in diameter) and locally damaging gusts cannot be ruled out with any robust/sustained cores during the next couple hours, before the onset of nocturnal cooling/stabilization. Weak synoptic and mesoscale ascent should keep the severe risk localized, and a watch is not expected. ..Weinman/Guyer.. 04/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GSP...FFC...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 33938810 34738544 34948442 34928373 34698342 34288342 33948386 33478492 32958697 32778803 32878856 33118886 33458893 33698866 33938810 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook RESENT 3 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0548 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z An upper-level ridging pattern will persist across the western half of the CONUS through at least Day 6/Wednesday, as multiple mid-level troughs amplify while traversing the CONUS east of the Mississippi River. Medium-range guidance members depict an appreciable chance for accumulating rainfall from portions of the southern Plains to the East Coast, which in combination with moist low-level conditions, should limit significant wildfire-spread concerns. By Days 7-8 (next Thursday-Friday), medium-range guidance shows a mid-level trough amplifying over the Rockies, encouraging surface cyclone development along the High Plains. A dryline should become established across western Kansas into western Texas each afternoon, with Elevated to Critically dry and windy conditions likely behind the dryline. However, appreciable rainfall accumulations may occur within the next few days over these same areas. Since the impacts of rainfall upon available fuels is not yet understood, higher Critical probabilities have been withheld this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 04/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook RESENT 3 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0548 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z An upper-level ridging pattern will persist across the western half of the CONUS through at least Day 6/Wednesday, as multiple mid-level troughs amplify while traversing the CONUS east of the Mississippi River. Medium-range guidance members depict an appreciable chance for accumulating rainfall from portions of the southern Plains to the East Coast, which in combination with moist low-level conditions, should limit significant wildfire-spread concerns. By Days 7-8 (next Thursday-Friday), medium-range guidance shows a mid-level trough amplifying over the Rockies, encouraging surface cyclone development along the High Plains. A dryline should become established across western Kansas into western Texas each afternoon, with Elevated to Critically dry and windy conditions likely behind the dryline. However, appreciable rainfall accumulations may occur within the next few days over these same areas. Since the impacts of rainfall upon available fuels is not yet understood, higher Critical probabilities have been withheld this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 04/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook RESENT 3 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0548 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z An upper-level ridging pattern will persist across the western half of the CONUS through at least Day 6/Wednesday, as multiple mid-level troughs amplify while traversing the CONUS east of the Mississippi River. Medium-range guidance members depict an appreciable chance for accumulating rainfall from portions of the southern Plains to the East Coast, which in combination with moist low-level conditions, should limit significant wildfire-spread concerns. By Days 7-8 (next Thursday-Friday), medium-range guidance shows a mid-level trough amplifying over the Rockies, encouraging surface cyclone development along the High Plains. A dryline should become established across western Kansas into western Texas each afternoon, with Elevated to Critically dry and windy conditions likely behind the dryline. However, appreciable rainfall accumulations may occur within the next few days over these same areas. Since the impacts of rainfall upon available fuels is not yet understood, higher Critical probabilities have been withheld this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 04/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast this afternoon into the early evening. Little change made to the outlook at 20Z. ...Southeast... Strong heating continues well ahead of the cold front, beneath modest west/northwest flow aloft. Midlevel lapse rates are poor, but sufficient instability coupled with the heated boundary layer and sufficient flow should support a few storms capable of damaging gusts or marginal hail with the more robust cells. Convergence near a weak low and a zone of mid 60s F dewpoints over central NC/eastern SC may yield the strongest cells. See mesoscale discussion 494 for more details. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/ ...Southeast this afternoon/evening... Late morning water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving east across the southern Appalachians. This feature will reach the VA/NC coast early tonight. Farther northwest, a closed midlevel low will evolve into an open wave as it moves eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. An associated surface cold front will continue to move slowly southeastward from TX to the southern Appalachians. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible with the disturbance over the Carolinas this afternoon. Other than the front pushing into portions of AL/GA, little larger-scale forcing for ascent is expected farther southwest. Additional storm development will be associated with the front and orographic lift along the spine of the Appalachians. Overall weak-moderate buoyancy, modest deep-layer shear and steepening low-level lapse rates will support some potential semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...TX through tonight... --No change needed to previous forecast discussion-- Weak upslope flow along a slow moving cold front will favor thunderstorm development over the east slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental/Sierra del Burro this afternoon, with the potential for a couple of supercells. However, it is not clear that storm motions will bring the convection across the Rio Grande, and lingering convective inhibition suggests storms will likely weaken if they manage to cross the border. Later tonight in northwest TX, elevated convection will likely develop atop the frontal surface, in a warm advection regime downstream from a weak shortwave trough over AZ/NM. Some small hail may occur given lingering steep midlevel lapse rates and modest cloud-layer shear, but the potential for severe hail appears too low to warrant an outlook area. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast this afternoon into the early evening. Little change made to the outlook at 20Z. ...Southeast... Strong heating continues well ahead of the cold front, beneath modest west/northwest flow aloft. Midlevel lapse rates are poor, but sufficient instability coupled with the heated boundary layer and sufficient flow should support a few storms capable of damaging gusts or marginal hail with the more robust cells. Convergence near a weak low and a zone of mid 60s F dewpoints over central NC/eastern SC may yield the strongest cells. See mesoscale discussion 494 for more details. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/ ...Southeast this afternoon/evening... Late morning water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving east across the southern Appalachians. This feature will reach the VA/NC coast early tonight. Farther northwest, a closed midlevel low will evolve into an open wave as it moves eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. An associated surface cold front will continue to move slowly southeastward from TX to the southern Appalachians. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible with the disturbance over the Carolinas this afternoon. Other than the front pushing into portions of AL/GA, little larger-scale forcing for ascent is expected farther southwest. Additional storm development will be associated with the front and orographic lift along the spine of the Appalachians. Overall weak-moderate buoyancy, modest deep-layer shear and steepening low-level lapse rates will support some potential semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...TX through tonight... --No change needed to previous forecast discussion-- Weak upslope flow along a slow moving cold front will favor thunderstorm development over the east slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental/Sierra del Burro this afternoon, with the potential for a couple of supercells. However, it is not clear that storm motions will bring the convection across the Rio Grande, and lingering convective inhibition suggests storms will likely weaken if they manage to cross the border. Later tonight in northwest TX, elevated convection will likely develop atop the frontal surface, in a warm advection regime downstream from a weak shortwave trough over AZ/NM. Some small hail may occur given lingering steep midlevel lapse rates and modest cloud-layer shear, but the potential for severe hail appears too low to warrant an outlook area. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast this afternoon into the early evening. Little change made to the outlook at 20Z. ...Southeast... Strong heating continues well ahead of the cold front, beneath modest west/northwest flow aloft. Midlevel lapse rates are poor, but sufficient instability coupled with the heated boundary layer and sufficient flow should support a few storms capable of damaging gusts or marginal hail with the more robust cells. Convergence near a weak low and a zone of mid 60s F dewpoints over central NC/eastern SC may yield the strongest cells. See mesoscale discussion 494 for more details. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/ ...Southeast this afternoon/evening... Late morning water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving east across the southern Appalachians. This feature will reach the VA/NC coast early tonight. Farther northwest, a closed midlevel low will evolve into an open wave as it moves eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. An associated surface cold front will continue to move slowly southeastward from TX to the southern Appalachians. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible with the disturbance over the Carolinas this afternoon. Other than the front pushing into portions of AL/GA, little larger-scale forcing for ascent is expected farther southwest. Additional storm development will be associated with the front and orographic lift along the spine of the Appalachians. Overall weak-moderate buoyancy, modest deep-layer shear and steepening low-level lapse rates will support some potential semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...TX through tonight... --No change needed to previous forecast discussion-- Weak upslope flow along a slow moving cold front will favor thunderstorm development over the east slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental/Sierra del Burro this afternoon, with the potential for a couple of supercells. However, it is not clear that storm motions will bring the convection across the Rio Grande, and lingering convective inhibition suggests storms will likely weaken if they manage to cross the border. Later tonight in northwest TX, elevated convection will likely develop atop the frontal surface, in a warm advection regime downstream from a weak shortwave trough over AZ/NM. Some small hail may occur given lingering steep midlevel lapse rates and modest cloud-layer shear, but the potential for severe hail appears too low to warrant an outlook area. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast this afternoon into the early evening. Little change made to the outlook at 20Z. ...Southeast... Strong heating continues well ahead of the cold front, beneath modest west/northwest flow aloft. Midlevel lapse rates are poor, but sufficient instability coupled with the heated boundary layer and sufficient flow should support a few storms capable of damaging gusts or marginal hail with the more robust cells. Convergence near a weak low and a zone of mid 60s F dewpoints over central NC/eastern SC may yield the strongest cells. See mesoscale discussion 494 for more details. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/ ...Southeast this afternoon/evening... Late morning water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving east across the southern Appalachians. This feature will reach the VA/NC coast early tonight. Farther northwest, a closed midlevel low will evolve into an open wave as it moves eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. An associated surface cold front will continue to move slowly southeastward from TX to the southern Appalachians. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible with the disturbance over the Carolinas this afternoon. Other than the front pushing into portions of AL/GA, little larger-scale forcing for ascent is expected farther southwest. Additional storm development will be associated with the front and orographic lift along the spine of the Appalachians. Overall weak-moderate buoyancy, modest deep-layer shear and steepening low-level lapse rates will support some potential semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...TX through tonight... --No change needed to previous forecast discussion-- Weak upslope flow along a slow moving cold front will favor thunderstorm development over the east slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental/Sierra del Burro this afternoon, with the potential for a couple of supercells. However, it is not clear that storm motions will bring the convection across the Rio Grande, and lingering convective inhibition suggests storms will likely weaken if they manage to cross the border. Later tonight in northwest TX, elevated convection will likely develop atop the frontal surface, in a warm advection regime downstream from a weak shortwave trough over AZ/NM. Some small hail may occur given lingering steep midlevel lapse rates and modest cloud-layer shear, but the potential for severe hail appears too low to warrant an outlook area. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast this afternoon into the early evening. Little change made to the outlook at 20Z. ...Southeast... Strong heating continues well ahead of the cold front, beneath modest west/northwest flow aloft. Midlevel lapse rates are poor, but sufficient instability coupled with the heated boundary layer and sufficient flow should support a few storms capable of damaging gusts or marginal hail with the more robust cells. Convergence near a weak low and a zone of mid 60s F dewpoints over central NC/eastern SC may yield the strongest cells. See mesoscale discussion 494 for more details. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/ ...Southeast this afternoon/evening... Late morning water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving east across the southern Appalachians. This feature will reach the VA/NC coast early tonight. Farther northwest, a closed midlevel low will evolve into an open wave as it moves eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. An associated surface cold front will continue to move slowly southeastward from TX to the southern Appalachians. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible with the disturbance over the Carolinas this afternoon. Other than the front pushing into portions of AL/GA, little larger-scale forcing for ascent is expected farther southwest. Additional storm development will be associated with the front and orographic lift along the spine of the Appalachians. Overall weak-moderate buoyancy, modest deep-layer shear and steepening low-level lapse rates will support some potential semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...TX through tonight... --No change needed to previous forecast discussion-- Weak upslope flow along a slow moving cold front will favor thunderstorm development over the east slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental/Sierra del Burro this afternoon, with the potential for a couple of supercells. However, it is not clear that storm motions will bring the convection across the Rio Grande, and lingering convective inhibition suggests storms will likely weaken if they manage to cross the border. Later tonight in northwest TX, elevated convection will likely develop atop the frontal surface, in a warm advection regime downstream from a weak shortwave trough over AZ/NM. Some small hail may occur given lingering steep midlevel lapse rates and modest cloud-layer shear, but the potential for severe hail appears too low to warrant an outlook area. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast this afternoon into the early evening. Little change made to the outlook at 20Z. ...Southeast... Strong heating continues well ahead of the cold front, beneath modest west/northwest flow aloft. Midlevel lapse rates are poor, but sufficient instability coupled with the heated boundary layer and sufficient flow should support a few storms capable of damaging gusts or marginal hail with the more robust cells. Convergence near a weak low and a zone of mid 60s F dewpoints over central NC/eastern SC may yield the strongest cells. See mesoscale discussion 494 for more details. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/ ...Southeast this afternoon/evening... Late morning water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving east across the southern Appalachians. This feature will reach the VA/NC coast early tonight. Farther northwest, a closed midlevel low will evolve into an open wave as it moves eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. An associated surface cold front will continue to move slowly southeastward from TX to the southern Appalachians. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible with the disturbance over the Carolinas this afternoon. Other than the front pushing into portions of AL/GA, little larger-scale forcing for ascent is expected farther southwest. Additional storm development will be associated with the front and orographic lift along the spine of the Appalachians. Overall weak-moderate buoyancy, modest deep-layer shear and steepening low-level lapse rates will support some potential semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...TX through tonight... --No change needed to previous forecast discussion-- Weak upslope flow along a slow moving cold front will favor thunderstorm development over the east slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental/Sierra del Burro this afternoon, with the potential for a couple of supercells. However, it is not clear that storm motions will bring the convection across the Rio Grande, and lingering convective inhibition suggests storms will likely weaken if they manage to cross the border. Later tonight in northwest TX, elevated convection will likely develop atop the frontal surface, in a warm advection regime downstream from a weak shortwave trough over AZ/NM. Some small hail may occur given lingering steep midlevel lapse rates and modest cloud-layer shear, but the potential for severe hail appears too low to warrant an outlook area. Read more

MD 0494 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
Mesoscale Discussion 0494 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Areas affected...portions of the Tennessee Valley into the Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 191833Z - 192030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is anticipated in the next couple of hours across parts of the southern Appalachians. These storms should gradually intensify through the mid/late afternoon, and may pose a severe hail/wind threat across parts of far eastern Tennessee and adjacent portions of Virginia and the Carolinas. The coverage of strong/severe storms should be sufficiently limited to preclude watch issuance. DISCUSSION...A gradually deepening cumulus field has been tracked in GOES visible/IR imagery and regional radars over the past 60 minutes. Lingering inhibition has precluded deeper convection so far, but continued daytime heating along with combined forcing for ascent along an approaching cold front and orographic lift within the southern Appalachians should foster more robust thunderstorms in the coming hours. Despite weak low-level winds, 30-40 knot flow aloft is supporting effective bulk shear values near 30-35 knots, which should be sufficient for some organization of deeper cells that may pose a large hail risk (most likely between 0.75 to 1.25 inch in diameter). Additionally, heating of a somewhat dry air mass downstream across the Carolinas (where temperatures are climbing into the low 80s under clearing skies) should steepen low-level lapse rates by late afternoon to around 8 C/km. This may favor outflow-driven storms with a tendency for upscale growth into clusters and the potential for strong to severe gusts. ..Moore/Smith.. 04/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...RLX...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC... LAT...LON 36658012 36187981 35217999 34728071 34498146 34518259 34618339 34908423 35268452 35668427 36978244 37068172 36968086 36658012 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 04/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... An expansive post-frontal air mass, characterized by cool surface temperatures and weak surface winds, will encompass much of the central and eastern CONUS, limiting fire-weather concerns. Dry conditions will persist over the Southwest, though weak surface winds and marginal fuels will also limit fire-weather potential here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 04/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... An expansive post-frontal air mass, characterized by cool surface temperatures and weak surface winds, will encompass much of the central and eastern CONUS, limiting fire-weather concerns. Dry conditions will persist over the Southwest, though weak surface winds and marginal fuels will also limit fire-weather potential here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 04/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... An expansive post-frontal air mass, characterized by cool surface temperatures and weak surface winds, will encompass much of the central and eastern CONUS, limiting fire-weather concerns. Dry conditions will persist over the Southwest, though weak surface winds and marginal fuels will also limit fire-weather potential here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 04/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... An expansive post-frontal air mass, characterized by cool surface temperatures and weak surface winds, will encompass much of the central and eastern CONUS, limiting fire-weather concerns. Dry conditions will persist over the Southwest, though weak surface winds and marginal fuels will also limit fire-weather potential here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 04/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... An expansive post-frontal air mass, characterized by cool surface temperatures and weak surface winds, will encompass much of the central and eastern CONUS, limiting fire-weather concerns. Dry conditions will persist over the Southwest, though weak surface winds and marginal fuels will also limit fire-weather potential here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 04/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... An expansive post-frontal air mass, characterized by cool surface temperatures and weak surface winds, will encompass much of the central and eastern CONUS, limiting fire-weather concerns. Dry conditions will persist over the Southwest, though weak surface winds and marginal fuels will also limit fire-weather potential here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 04/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... An expansive post-frontal air mass, characterized by cool surface temperatures and weak surface winds, will encompass much of the central and eastern CONUS, limiting fire-weather concerns. Dry conditions will persist over the Southwest, though weak surface winds and marginal fuels will also limit fire-weather potential here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0493 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0493 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Areas affected...Eastern South Carolina into far southeast North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 191707Z - 191900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing off an outflow boundary and surface trough may intensify enough to pose a severe hail/damaging wind risk over the next few hours. Watch issuance is not expected given the localized nature of the threat. DISCUSSION...Deep convective initiation is underway across eastern SC as thunderstorms develop along an outflow boundary from early-morning convection. Just ahead of the outflow, deepening cumulus is noted along a surface trough. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop across eastern SC and southeast NC within the next 1-2 hours as temperatures continue to warm into the low 80s along and downstream of these surface boundaries. Thermodynamically, sufficient buoyancy is evidently in place to support deep updrafts; however, more isolated convection has been short-lived, likely owing to lingering capping and modest (6-7 C/km) mid-level lapse rates. Longer-lived convection will likely be tied to stronger forcing along the outflow/trough that will most likely take on a clustered/linear storm mode. Regional VWP data and forecast hodographs show somewhat meager elongation of the deep-layer wind profile, but sufficient effective bulk shear (around 30-35 knots) should support some organization of clusters. Consequently, this activity may pose the threat for large hail (most likely between 0.5 to 1.25 inch in diameter) and damaging winds - especially by the mid to late afternoon hours as low-level lapse rates steepen downstream of the developing storms. ..Moore/Smith.. 04/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE... LAT...LON 33108068 33298022 33818005 34338011 34598014 34908010 35197986 35357934 35327857 35287816 35067796 34757796 34397803 34007822 33797841 33557877 33157922 32917954 32687984 32598005 32538026 32628049 32908073 33108068 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS AND FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA ACROSS GEORGIA AND INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms capable of strong wind gusts and hail will be possible on Saturday across much of central Texas, and during the afternoon from southern Alabama across parts of Georgia and into southern South Carolina. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move east from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, as the parent upper low deepens over Hudson Bay. Moderate westerly flow aloft will remain from the central Plains to the East Coast, with a low-latitude wave moving from AZ/NM across the southern Plains through Saturday night. At the surface, high pressure will extend south and eastward across much of the central and eastern CONUS, with a front from the coastal Carolinas to the northern Gulf Coast and into southern TX. A moist air mass will remain south of this boundary in TX, where lift north of the boundary will lead to increase rain and thunderstorms. ...TX... Primarily elevated thunderstorms are likely through much of the day over parts of central and northern TX, with activity extending east toward northern MS. This activity will be supported by modest warm advection just above the cool post-frontal air mass. Instability may still be substantial, especially just north of the surface front. As such, a few hail reports will be possible over a relatively large area, with a conditional risk of strong gusts closer to the front. ...Coastal SC into southern GA and AL... The surface boundary will extend roughly from coastal SC across GA and into southern AL during the afternoon, with strong heating expected. Although gradual drying will occur due to westerly flow, strong heating and sufficient moisture will still result in an unstable air mass, and eastward-moving storms producing outflow are anticipated. Given the steep low-level lapse rates, 1000-1500 SBCAPE and sufficient deep-layer mean winds, isolated damaging gusts will be possible. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2024 Read more