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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast this afternoon into the early evening. ...Southeast this afternoon/evening... Late morning water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving east across the southern Appalachians. This feature will reach the VA/NC coast early tonight. Farther northwest, a closed midlevel low will evolve into an open wave as it moves eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. An associated surface cold front will continue to move slowly southeastward from TX to the southern Appalachians. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible with the disturbance over the Carolinas this afternoon. Other than the front pushing into portions of AL/GA, little larger-scale forcing for ascent is expected farther southwest. Additional storm development will be associated with the front and orographic lift along the spine of the Appalachians. Overall weak-moderate buoyancy, modest deep-layer shear and steepening low-level lapse rates will support some potential semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...TX through tonight... --No change needed to previous forecast discussion-- Weak upslope flow along a slow moving cold front will favor thunderstorm development over the east slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental/Sierra del Burro this afternoon, with the potential for a couple of supercells. However, it is not clear that storm motions will bring the convection across the Rio Grande, and lingering convective inhibition suggests storms will likely weaken if they manage to cross the border. Later tonight in northwest TX, elevated convection will likely develop atop the frontal surface, in a warm advection regime downstream from a weak shortwave trough over AZ/NM. Some small hail may occur given lingering steep midlevel lapse rates and modest cloud-layer shear, but the potential for severe hail appears too low to warrant an outlook area. ..Smith/Moore.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast this afternoon into the early evening. ...Southeast this afternoon/evening... Late morning water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving east across the southern Appalachians. This feature will reach the VA/NC coast early tonight. Farther northwest, a closed midlevel low will evolve into an open wave as it moves eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. An associated surface cold front will continue to move slowly southeastward from TX to the southern Appalachians. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible with the disturbance over the Carolinas this afternoon. Other than the front pushing into portions of AL/GA, little larger-scale forcing for ascent is expected farther southwest. Additional storm development will be associated with the front and orographic lift along the spine of the Appalachians. Overall weak-moderate buoyancy, modest deep-layer shear and steepening low-level lapse rates will support some potential semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...TX through tonight... --No change needed to previous forecast discussion-- Weak upslope flow along a slow moving cold front will favor thunderstorm development over the east slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental/Sierra del Burro this afternoon, with the potential for a couple of supercells. However, it is not clear that storm motions will bring the convection across the Rio Grande, and lingering convective inhibition suggests storms will likely weaken if they manage to cross the border. Later tonight in northwest TX, elevated convection will likely develop atop the frontal surface, in a warm advection regime downstream from a weak shortwave trough over AZ/NM. Some small hail may occur given lingering steep midlevel lapse rates and modest cloud-layer shear, but the potential for severe hail appears too low to warrant an outlook area. ..Smith/Moore.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast this afternoon into the early evening. ...Southeast this afternoon/evening... Late morning water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving east across the southern Appalachians. This feature will reach the VA/NC coast early tonight. Farther northwest, a closed midlevel low will evolve into an open wave as it moves eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. An associated surface cold front will continue to move slowly southeastward from TX to the southern Appalachians. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible with the disturbance over the Carolinas this afternoon. Other than the front pushing into portions of AL/GA, little larger-scale forcing for ascent is expected farther southwest. Additional storm development will be associated with the front and orographic lift along the spine of the Appalachians. Overall weak-moderate buoyancy, modest deep-layer shear and steepening low-level lapse rates will support some potential semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...TX through tonight... --No change needed to previous forecast discussion-- Weak upslope flow along a slow moving cold front will favor thunderstorm development over the east slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental/Sierra del Burro this afternoon, with the potential for a couple of supercells. However, it is not clear that storm motions will bring the convection across the Rio Grande, and lingering convective inhibition suggests storms will likely weaken if they manage to cross the border. Later tonight in northwest TX, elevated convection will likely develop atop the frontal surface, in a warm advection regime downstream from a weak shortwave trough over AZ/NM. Some small hail may occur given lingering steep midlevel lapse rates and modest cloud-layer shear, but the potential for severe hail appears too low to warrant an outlook area. ..Smith/Moore.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast this afternoon into the early evening. ...Southeast this afternoon/evening... Late morning water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving east across the southern Appalachians. This feature will reach the VA/NC coast early tonight. Farther northwest, a closed midlevel low will evolve into an open wave as it moves eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. An associated surface cold front will continue to move slowly southeastward from TX to the southern Appalachians. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible with the disturbance over the Carolinas this afternoon. Other than the front pushing into portions of AL/GA, little larger-scale forcing for ascent is expected farther southwest. Additional storm development will be associated with the front and orographic lift along the spine of the Appalachians. Overall weak-moderate buoyancy, modest deep-layer shear and steepening low-level lapse rates will support some potential semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...TX through tonight... --No change needed to previous forecast discussion-- Weak upslope flow along a slow moving cold front will favor thunderstorm development over the east slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental/Sierra del Burro this afternoon, with the potential for a couple of supercells. However, it is not clear that storm motions will bring the convection across the Rio Grande, and lingering convective inhibition suggests storms will likely weaken if they manage to cross the border. Later tonight in northwest TX, elevated convection will likely develop atop the frontal surface, in a warm advection regime downstream from a weak shortwave trough over AZ/NM. Some small hail may occur given lingering steep midlevel lapse rates and modest cloud-layer shear, but the potential for severe hail appears too low to warrant an outlook area. ..Smith/Moore.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast this afternoon into the early evening. ...Southeast this afternoon/evening... Late morning water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving east across the southern Appalachians. This feature will reach the VA/NC coast early tonight. Farther northwest, a closed midlevel low will evolve into an open wave as it moves eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. An associated surface cold front will continue to move slowly southeastward from TX to the southern Appalachians. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible with the disturbance over the Carolinas this afternoon. Other than the front pushing into portions of AL/GA, little larger-scale forcing for ascent is expected farther southwest. Additional storm development will be associated with the front and orographic lift along the spine of the Appalachians. Overall weak-moderate buoyancy, modest deep-layer shear and steepening low-level lapse rates will support some potential semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...TX through tonight... --No change needed to previous forecast discussion-- Weak upslope flow along a slow moving cold front will favor thunderstorm development over the east slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental/Sierra del Burro this afternoon, with the potential for a couple of supercells. However, it is not clear that storm motions will bring the convection across the Rio Grande, and lingering convective inhibition suggests storms will likely weaken if they manage to cross the border. Later tonight in northwest TX, elevated convection will likely develop atop the frontal surface, in a warm advection regime downstream from a weak shortwave trough over AZ/NM. Some small hail may occur given lingering steep midlevel lapse rates and modest cloud-layer shear, but the potential for severe hail appears too low to warrant an outlook area. ..Smith/Moore.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast this afternoon into the early evening. ...Southeast this afternoon/evening... Late morning water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving east across the southern Appalachians. This feature will reach the VA/NC coast early tonight. Farther northwest, a closed midlevel low will evolve into an open wave as it moves eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. An associated surface cold front will continue to move slowly southeastward from TX to the southern Appalachians. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible with the disturbance over the Carolinas this afternoon. Other than the front pushing into portions of AL/GA, little larger-scale forcing for ascent is expected farther southwest. Additional storm development will be associated with the front and orographic lift along the spine of the Appalachians. Overall weak-moderate buoyancy, modest deep-layer shear and steepening low-level lapse rates will support some potential semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...TX through tonight... --No change needed to previous forecast discussion-- Weak upslope flow along a slow moving cold front will favor thunderstorm development over the east slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental/Sierra del Burro this afternoon, with the potential for a couple of supercells. However, it is not clear that storm motions will bring the convection across the Rio Grande, and lingering convective inhibition suggests storms will likely weaken if they manage to cross the border. Later tonight in northwest TX, elevated convection will likely develop atop the frontal surface, in a warm advection regime downstream from a weak shortwave trough over AZ/NM. Some small hail may occur given lingering steep midlevel lapse rates and modest cloud-layer shear, but the potential for severe hail appears too low to warrant an outlook area. ..Smith/Moore.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast this afternoon into the early evening. ...Southeast this afternoon/evening... Late morning water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving east across the southern Appalachians. This feature will reach the VA/NC coast early tonight. Farther northwest, a closed midlevel low will evolve into an open wave as it moves eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. An associated surface cold front will continue to move slowly southeastward from TX to the southern Appalachians. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible with the disturbance over the Carolinas this afternoon. Other than the front pushing into portions of AL/GA, little larger-scale forcing for ascent is expected farther southwest. Additional storm development will be associated with the front and orographic lift along the spine of the Appalachians. Overall weak-moderate buoyancy, modest deep-layer shear and steepening low-level lapse rates will support some potential semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...TX through tonight... --No change needed to previous forecast discussion-- Weak upslope flow along a slow moving cold front will favor thunderstorm development over the east slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental/Sierra del Burro this afternoon, with the potential for a couple of supercells. However, it is not clear that storm motions will bring the convection across the Rio Grande, and lingering convective inhibition suggests storms will likely weaken if they manage to cross the border. Later tonight in northwest TX, elevated convection will likely develop atop the frontal surface, in a warm advection regime downstream from a weak shortwave trough over AZ/NM. Some small hail may occur given lingering steep midlevel lapse rates and modest cloud-layer shear, but the potential for severe hail appears too low to warrant an outlook area. ..Smith/Moore.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast this afternoon into the early evening. ...Southeast this afternoon/evening... Late morning water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving east across the southern Appalachians. This feature will reach the VA/NC coast early tonight. Farther northwest, a closed midlevel low will evolve into an open wave as it moves eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. An associated surface cold front will continue to move slowly southeastward from TX to the southern Appalachians. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible with the disturbance over the Carolinas this afternoon. Other than the front pushing into portions of AL/GA, little larger-scale forcing for ascent is expected farther southwest. Additional storm development will be associated with the front and orographic lift along the spine of the Appalachians. Overall weak-moderate buoyancy, modest deep-layer shear and steepening low-level lapse rates will support some potential semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...TX through tonight... --No change needed to previous forecast discussion-- Weak upslope flow along a slow moving cold front will favor thunderstorm development over the east slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental/Sierra del Burro this afternoon, with the potential for a couple of supercells. However, it is not clear that storm motions will bring the convection across the Rio Grande, and lingering convective inhibition suggests storms will likely weaken if they manage to cross the border. Later tonight in northwest TX, elevated convection will likely develop atop the frontal surface, in a warm advection regime downstream from a weak shortwave trough over AZ/NM. Some small hail may occur given lingering steep midlevel lapse rates and modest cloud-layer shear, but the potential for severe hail appears too low to warrant an outlook area. ..Smith/Moore.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 04/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak/low-amplitude southern-stream trough will track eastward across the Southwest, encouraging breezy/gusty southwesterly winds amid a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across the region. While elevated meteorological conditions are likely across portions of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon, marginal fuels should keep the fire-weather threat fairly localized -- precluding highlights at this time. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a limited overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions will limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 04/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak/low-amplitude southern-stream trough will track eastward across the Southwest, encouraging breezy/gusty southwesterly winds amid a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across the region. While elevated meteorological conditions are likely across portions of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon, marginal fuels should keep the fire-weather threat fairly localized -- precluding highlights at this time. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a limited overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions will limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 04/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak/low-amplitude southern-stream trough will track eastward across the Southwest, encouraging breezy/gusty southwesterly winds amid a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across the region. While elevated meteorological conditions are likely across portions of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon, marginal fuels should keep the fire-weather threat fairly localized -- precluding highlights at this time. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a limited overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions will limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 04/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak/low-amplitude southern-stream trough will track eastward across the Southwest, encouraging breezy/gusty southwesterly winds amid a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across the region. While elevated meteorological conditions are likely across portions of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon, marginal fuels should keep the fire-weather threat fairly localized -- precluding highlights at this time. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a limited overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions will limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 04/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak/low-amplitude southern-stream trough will track eastward across the Southwest, encouraging breezy/gusty southwesterly winds amid a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across the region. While elevated meteorological conditions are likely across portions of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon, marginal fuels should keep the fire-weather threat fairly localized -- precluding highlights at this time. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a limited overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions will limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 04/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak/low-amplitude southern-stream trough will track eastward across the Southwest, encouraging breezy/gusty southwesterly winds amid a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across the region. While elevated meteorological conditions are likely across portions of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon, marginal fuels should keep the fire-weather threat fairly localized -- precluding highlights at this time. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a limited overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions will limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 04/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak/low-amplitude southern-stream trough will track eastward across the Southwest, encouraging breezy/gusty southwesterly winds amid a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across the region. While elevated meteorological conditions are likely across portions of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon, marginal fuels should keep the fire-weather threat fairly localized -- precluding highlights at this time. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a limited overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions will limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 04/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak/low-amplitude southern-stream trough will track eastward across the Southwest, encouraging breezy/gusty southwesterly winds amid a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across the region. While elevated meteorological conditions are likely across portions of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon, marginal fuels should keep the fire-weather threat fairly localized -- precluding highlights at this time. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a limited overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions will limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 04/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak/low-amplitude southern-stream trough will track eastward across the Southwest, encouraging breezy/gusty southwesterly winds amid a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across the region. While elevated meteorological conditions are likely across portions of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon, marginal fuels should keep the fire-weather threat fairly localized -- precluding highlights at this time. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a limited overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions will limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0731 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast later today. ...Southeast this afternoon/evening... A closed midlevel low will evolve into an open wave as it moves eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. An associated surface cold front will continue to move slowly southeastward from TX to the southern Appalachians. A weak lead shortwave trough (enhanced some by overnight convection) will move eastward over the southern Appalachians and Piedmont this morning and the eastern Carolinas by early-mid afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible with the lead trough farther east in the Carolinas this afternoon, with little larger-scale forcing for ascent farther west. Still, widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible this afternoon in conjunction with weak ascent along the front and local terrain circulations across the western parts of the MRGL risk area. Weak-moderate buoyancy, modest deep-layer shear and steepening low-level lapse rates will support some potential semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...TX through tonight... Weak upslope flow along a slow moving cold front will favor thunderstorm development over the east slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental/Sierra del Burro this afternoon, with the potential for a couple of supercells. However, it is not clear that storm motions will bring the convection across the Rio Grande, and lingering convective inhibition suggests storms will likely weaken if they manage to cross the border. Later tonight in northwest TX, elevated convection will likely develop atop the frontal surface, in a warm advection regime downstream from a weak shortwave trough over AZ/NM. Some small hail may occur given lingering steep midlevel lapse rates and modest cloud-layer shear, but the potential for severe hail appears too low to warrant an outlook area. ..Thompson/Kerr.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0731 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast later today. ...Southeast this afternoon/evening... A closed midlevel low will evolve into an open wave as it moves eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. An associated surface cold front will continue to move slowly southeastward from TX to the southern Appalachians. A weak lead shortwave trough (enhanced some by overnight convection) will move eastward over the southern Appalachians and Piedmont this morning and the eastern Carolinas by early-mid afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible with the lead trough farther east in the Carolinas this afternoon, with little larger-scale forcing for ascent farther west. Still, widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible this afternoon in conjunction with weak ascent along the front and local terrain circulations across the western parts of the MRGL risk area. Weak-moderate buoyancy, modest deep-layer shear and steepening low-level lapse rates will support some potential semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...TX through tonight... Weak upslope flow along a slow moving cold front will favor thunderstorm development over the east slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental/Sierra del Burro this afternoon, with the potential for a couple of supercells. However, it is not clear that storm motions will bring the convection across the Rio Grande, and lingering convective inhibition suggests storms will likely weaken if they manage to cross the border. Later tonight in northwest TX, elevated convection will likely develop atop the frontal surface, in a warm advection regime downstream from a weak shortwave trough over AZ/NM. Some small hail may occur given lingering steep midlevel lapse rates and modest cloud-layer shear, but the potential for severe hail appears too low to warrant an outlook area. ..Thompson/Kerr.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0731 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast later today. ...Southeast this afternoon/evening... A closed midlevel low will evolve into an open wave as it moves eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. An associated surface cold front will continue to move slowly southeastward from TX to the southern Appalachians. A weak lead shortwave trough (enhanced some by overnight convection) will move eastward over the southern Appalachians and Piedmont this morning and the eastern Carolinas by early-mid afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible with the lead trough farther east in the Carolinas this afternoon, with little larger-scale forcing for ascent farther west. Still, widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible this afternoon in conjunction with weak ascent along the front and local terrain circulations across the western parts of the MRGL risk area. Weak-moderate buoyancy, modest deep-layer shear and steepening low-level lapse rates will support some potential semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...TX through tonight... Weak upslope flow along a slow moving cold front will favor thunderstorm development over the east slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental/Sierra del Burro this afternoon, with the potential for a couple of supercells. However, it is not clear that storm motions will bring the convection across the Rio Grande, and lingering convective inhibition suggests storms will likely weaken if they manage to cross the border. Later tonight in northwest TX, elevated convection will likely develop atop the frontal surface, in a warm advection regime downstream from a weak shortwave trough over AZ/NM. Some small hail may occur given lingering steep midlevel lapse rates and modest cloud-layer shear, but the potential for severe hail appears too low to warrant an outlook area. ..Thompson/Kerr.. 04/19/2024 Read more