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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 04/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak/low-amplitude southern-stream trough will track eastward across the Southwest, encouraging breezy/gusty southwesterly winds amid a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across the region. While elevated meteorological conditions are likely across portions of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon, marginal fuels should keep the fire-weather threat fairly localized -- precluding highlights at this time. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a limited overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions will limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 04/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak/low-amplitude southern-stream trough will track eastward across the Southwest, encouraging breezy/gusty southwesterly winds amid a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across the region. While elevated meteorological conditions are likely across portions of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon, marginal fuels should keep the fire-weather threat fairly localized -- precluding highlights at this time. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a limited overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions will limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 04/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak/low-amplitude southern-stream trough will track eastward across the Southwest, encouraging breezy/gusty southwesterly winds amid a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across the region. While elevated meteorological conditions are likely across portions of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon, marginal fuels should keep the fire-weather threat fairly localized -- precluding highlights at this time. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a limited overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions will limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 04/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak/low-amplitude southern-stream trough will track eastward across the Southwest, encouraging breezy/gusty southwesterly winds amid a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across the region. While elevated meteorological conditions are likely across portions of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon, marginal fuels should keep the fire-weather threat fairly localized -- precluding highlights at this time. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a limited overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions will limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 04/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak/low-amplitude southern-stream trough will track eastward across the Southwest, encouraging breezy/gusty southwesterly winds amid a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across the region. While elevated meteorological conditions are likely across portions of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon, marginal fuels should keep the fire-weather threat fairly localized -- precluding highlights at this time. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a limited overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions will limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 04/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak/low-amplitude southern-stream trough will track eastward across the Southwest, encouraging breezy/gusty southwesterly winds amid a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across the region. While elevated meteorological conditions are likely across portions of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon, marginal fuels should keep the fire-weather threat fairly localized -- precluding highlights at this time. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a limited overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions will limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 04/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak/low-amplitude southern-stream trough will track eastward across the Southwest, encouraging breezy/gusty southwesterly winds amid a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across the region. While elevated meteorological conditions are likely across portions of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon, marginal fuels should keep the fire-weather threat fairly localized -- precluding highlights at this time. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a limited overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions will limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0731 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast later today. ...Southeast this afternoon/evening... A closed midlevel low will evolve into an open wave as it moves eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. An associated surface cold front will continue to move slowly southeastward from TX to the southern Appalachians. A weak lead shortwave trough (enhanced some by overnight convection) will move eastward over the southern Appalachians and Piedmont this morning and the eastern Carolinas by early-mid afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible with the lead trough farther east in the Carolinas this afternoon, with little larger-scale forcing for ascent farther west. Still, widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible this afternoon in conjunction with weak ascent along the front and local terrain circulations across the western parts of the MRGL risk area. Weak-moderate buoyancy, modest deep-layer shear and steepening low-level lapse rates will support some potential semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...TX through tonight... Weak upslope flow along a slow moving cold front will favor thunderstorm development over the east slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental/Sierra del Burro this afternoon, with the potential for a couple of supercells. However, it is not clear that storm motions will bring the convection across the Rio Grande, and lingering convective inhibition suggests storms will likely weaken if they manage to cross the border. Later tonight in northwest TX, elevated convection will likely develop atop the frontal surface, in a warm advection regime downstream from a weak shortwave trough over AZ/NM. Some small hail may occur given lingering steep midlevel lapse rates and modest cloud-layer shear, but the potential for severe hail appears too low to warrant an outlook area. ..Thompson/Kerr.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0731 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast later today. ...Southeast this afternoon/evening... A closed midlevel low will evolve into an open wave as it moves eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. An associated surface cold front will continue to move slowly southeastward from TX to the southern Appalachians. A weak lead shortwave trough (enhanced some by overnight convection) will move eastward over the southern Appalachians and Piedmont this morning and the eastern Carolinas by early-mid afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible with the lead trough farther east in the Carolinas this afternoon, with little larger-scale forcing for ascent farther west. Still, widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible this afternoon in conjunction with weak ascent along the front and local terrain circulations across the western parts of the MRGL risk area. Weak-moderate buoyancy, modest deep-layer shear and steepening low-level lapse rates will support some potential semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...TX through tonight... Weak upslope flow along a slow moving cold front will favor thunderstorm development over the east slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental/Sierra del Burro this afternoon, with the potential for a couple of supercells. However, it is not clear that storm motions will bring the convection across the Rio Grande, and lingering convective inhibition suggests storms will likely weaken if they manage to cross the border. Later tonight in northwest TX, elevated convection will likely develop atop the frontal surface, in a warm advection regime downstream from a weak shortwave trough over AZ/NM. Some small hail may occur given lingering steep midlevel lapse rates and modest cloud-layer shear, but the potential for severe hail appears too low to warrant an outlook area. ..Thompson/Kerr.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0731 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast later today. ...Southeast this afternoon/evening... A closed midlevel low will evolve into an open wave as it moves eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. An associated surface cold front will continue to move slowly southeastward from TX to the southern Appalachians. A weak lead shortwave trough (enhanced some by overnight convection) will move eastward over the southern Appalachians and Piedmont this morning and the eastern Carolinas by early-mid afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible with the lead trough farther east in the Carolinas this afternoon, with little larger-scale forcing for ascent farther west. Still, widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible this afternoon in conjunction with weak ascent along the front and local terrain circulations across the western parts of the MRGL risk area. Weak-moderate buoyancy, modest deep-layer shear and steepening low-level lapse rates will support some potential semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...TX through tonight... Weak upslope flow along a slow moving cold front will favor thunderstorm development over the east slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental/Sierra del Burro this afternoon, with the potential for a couple of supercells. However, it is not clear that storm motions will bring the convection across the Rio Grande, and lingering convective inhibition suggests storms will likely weaken if they manage to cross the border. Later tonight in northwest TX, elevated convection will likely develop atop the frontal surface, in a warm advection regime downstream from a weak shortwave trough over AZ/NM. Some small hail may occur given lingering steep midlevel lapse rates and modest cloud-layer shear, but the potential for severe hail appears too low to warrant an outlook area. ..Thompson/Kerr.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0731 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast later today. ...Southeast this afternoon/evening... A closed midlevel low will evolve into an open wave as it moves eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. An associated surface cold front will continue to move slowly southeastward from TX to the southern Appalachians. A weak lead shortwave trough (enhanced some by overnight convection) will move eastward over the southern Appalachians and Piedmont this morning and the eastern Carolinas by early-mid afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible with the lead trough farther east in the Carolinas this afternoon, with little larger-scale forcing for ascent farther west. Still, widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible this afternoon in conjunction with weak ascent along the front and local terrain circulations across the western parts of the MRGL risk area. Weak-moderate buoyancy, modest deep-layer shear and steepening low-level lapse rates will support some potential semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...TX through tonight... Weak upslope flow along a slow moving cold front will favor thunderstorm development over the east slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental/Sierra del Burro this afternoon, with the potential for a couple of supercells. However, it is not clear that storm motions will bring the convection across the Rio Grande, and lingering convective inhibition suggests storms will likely weaken if they manage to cross the border. Later tonight in northwest TX, elevated convection will likely develop atop the frontal surface, in a warm advection regime downstream from a weak shortwave trough over AZ/NM. Some small hail may occur given lingering steep midlevel lapse rates and modest cloud-layer shear, but the potential for severe hail appears too low to warrant an outlook area. ..Thompson/Kerr.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0731 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast later today. ...Southeast this afternoon/evening... A closed midlevel low will evolve into an open wave as it moves eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. An associated surface cold front will continue to move slowly southeastward from TX to the southern Appalachians. A weak lead shortwave trough (enhanced some by overnight convection) will move eastward over the southern Appalachians and Piedmont this morning and the eastern Carolinas by early-mid afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible with the lead trough farther east in the Carolinas this afternoon, with little larger-scale forcing for ascent farther west. Still, widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible this afternoon in conjunction with weak ascent along the front and local terrain circulations across the western parts of the MRGL risk area. Weak-moderate buoyancy, modest deep-layer shear and steepening low-level lapse rates will support some potential semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...TX through tonight... Weak upslope flow along a slow moving cold front will favor thunderstorm development over the east slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental/Sierra del Burro this afternoon, with the potential for a couple of supercells. However, it is not clear that storm motions will bring the convection across the Rio Grande, and lingering convective inhibition suggests storms will likely weaken if they manage to cross the border. Later tonight in northwest TX, elevated convection will likely develop atop the frontal surface, in a warm advection regime downstream from a weak shortwave trough over AZ/NM. Some small hail may occur given lingering steep midlevel lapse rates and modest cloud-layer shear, but the potential for severe hail appears too low to warrant an outlook area. ..Thompson/Kerr.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0731 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast later today. ...Southeast this afternoon/evening... A closed midlevel low will evolve into an open wave as it moves eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. An associated surface cold front will continue to move slowly southeastward from TX to the southern Appalachians. A weak lead shortwave trough (enhanced some by overnight convection) will move eastward over the southern Appalachians and Piedmont this morning and the eastern Carolinas by early-mid afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible with the lead trough farther east in the Carolinas this afternoon, with little larger-scale forcing for ascent farther west. Still, widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible this afternoon in conjunction with weak ascent along the front and local terrain circulations across the western parts of the MRGL risk area. Weak-moderate buoyancy, modest deep-layer shear and steepening low-level lapse rates will support some potential semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...TX through tonight... Weak upslope flow along a slow moving cold front will favor thunderstorm development over the east slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental/Sierra del Burro this afternoon, with the potential for a couple of supercells. However, it is not clear that storm motions will bring the convection across the Rio Grande, and lingering convective inhibition suggests storms will likely weaken if they manage to cross the border. Later tonight in northwest TX, elevated convection will likely develop atop the frontal surface, in a warm advection regime downstream from a weak shortwave trough over AZ/NM. Some small hail may occur given lingering steep midlevel lapse rates and modest cloud-layer shear, but the potential for severe hail appears too low to warrant an outlook area. ..Thompson/Kerr.. 04/19/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5... Surface high pressure is forecast to move across the Southeast on Monday and Tuesday. As a result, a dry and cool airmass is expected to limit severe potential across the continental U.S. ...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8... Low-level moisture is forecast to return northward into the Southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex from Wednesday into Wednesday night, as a low-level jet develops across the Great Plains. Within the warm advection regime, isolated strong thunderstorm development could take place. A hail threat would be possible in parts of the southern and central Plains, as the low-level jet strengthens and instability increases Wednesday night. On Thursday and Friday, the medium-range models develop a large-scale upper-level trough over the southwestern U.S. Some solutions eject a lead shortwave across the central U.S. on Thursday and Thursday night. Ahead of this feature, significant moisture return is forecast, and it appears that moderate instability will be in place across much of the southern and central Plains. Strong to severe thunderstorms could develop to the east of a dryline across parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. Some model solutions suggest that a second shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains on Friday. This would continue a potential for severe storms Friday into Friday night from the southern Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. In spite of a potential for severe storms late in the Day 4 to 8 period, predictability remains low. This is especially true on Friday due a relatively large spread among the model solutions. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5... Surface high pressure is forecast to move across the Southeast on Monday and Tuesday. As a result, a dry and cool airmass is expected to limit severe potential across the continental U.S. ...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8... Low-level moisture is forecast to return northward into the Southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex from Wednesday into Wednesday night, as a low-level jet develops across the Great Plains. Within the warm advection regime, isolated strong thunderstorm development could take place. A hail threat would be possible in parts of the southern and central Plains, as the low-level jet strengthens and instability increases Wednesday night. On Thursday and Friday, the medium-range models develop a large-scale upper-level trough over the southwestern U.S. Some solutions eject a lead shortwave across the central U.S. on Thursday and Thursday night. Ahead of this feature, significant moisture return is forecast, and it appears that moderate instability will be in place across much of the southern and central Plains. Strong to severe thunderstorms could develop to the east of a dryline across parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. Some model solutions suggest that a second shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains on Friday. This would continue a potential for severe storms Friday into Friday night from the southern Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. In spite of a potential for severe storms late in the Day 4 to 8 period, predictability remains low. This is especially true on Friday due a relatively large spread among the model solutions. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5... Surface high pressure is forecast to move across the Southeast on Monday and Tuesday. As a result, a dry and cool airmass is expected to limit severe potential across the continental U.S. ...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8... Low-level moisture is forecast to return northward into the Southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex from Wednesday into Wednesday night, as a low-level jet develops across the Great Plains. Within the warm advection regime, isolated strong thunderstorm development could take place. A hail threat would be possible in parts of the southern and central Plains, as the low-level jet strengthens and instability increases Wednesday night. On Thursday and Friday, the medium-range models develop a large-scale upper-level trough over the southwestern U.S. Some solutions eject a lead shortwave across the central U.S. on Thursday and Thursday night. Ahead of this feature, significant moisture return is forecast, and it appears that moderate instability will be in place across much of the southern and central Plains. Strong to severe thunderstorms could develop to the east of a dryline across parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. Some model solutions suggest that a second shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains on Friday. This would continue a potential for severe storms Friday into Friday night from the southern Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. In spite of a potential for severe storms late in the Day 4 to 8 period, predictability remains low. This is especially true on Friday due a relatively large spread among the model solutions. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5... Surface high pressure is forecast to move across the Southeast on Monday and Tuesday. As a result, a dry and cool airmass is expected to limit severe potential across the continental U.S. ...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8... Low-level moisture is forecast to return northward into the Southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex from Wednesday into Wednesday night, as a low-level jet develops across the Great Plains. Within the warm advection regime, isolated strong thunderstorm development could take place. A hail threat would be possible in parts of the southern and central Plains, as the low-level jet strengthens and instability increases Wednesday night. On Thursday and Friday, the medium-range models develop a large-scale upper-level trough over the southwestern U.S. Some solutions eject a lead shortwave across the central U.S. on Thursday and Thursday night. Ahead of this feature, significant moisture return is forecast, and it appears that moderate instability will be in place across much of the southern and central Plains. Strong to severe thunderstorms could develop to the east of a dryline across parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. Some model solutions suggest that a second shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains on Friday. This would continue a potential for severe storms Friday into Friday night from the southern Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. In spite of a potential for severe storms late in the Day 4 to 8 period, predictability remains low. This is especially true on Friday due a relatively large spread among the model solutions. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5... Surface high pressure is forecast to move across the Southeast on Monday and Tuesday. As a result, a dry and cool airmass is expected to limit severe potential across the continental U.S. ...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8... Low-level moisture is forecast to return northward into the Southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex from Wednesday into Wednesday night, as a low-level jet develops across the Great Plains. Within the warm advection regime, isolated strong thunderstorm development could take place. A hail threat would be possible in parts of the southern and central Plains, as the low-level jet strengthens and instability increases Wednesday night. On Thursday and Friday, the medium-range models develop a large-scale upper-level trough over the southwestern U.S. Some solutions eject a lead shortwave across the central U.S. on Thursday and Thursday night. Ahead of this feature, significant moisture return is forecast, and it appears that moderate instability will be in place across much of the southern and central Plains. Strong to severe thunderstorms could develop to the east of a dryline across parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. Some model solutions suggest that a second shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains on Friday. This would continue a potential for severe storms Friday into Friday night from the southern Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. In spite of a potential for severe storms late in the Day 4 to 8 period, predictability remains low. This is especially true on Friday due a relatively large spread among the model solutions. Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS... CORRECTED FOR REVERSED THUNDER LINES ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms capable of strong wind gusts and hail will be possible on Saturday across parts of south-central and southeast Texas. ...South-central and Southeast Texas... A shortwave trough will move toward the southern Plains on Saturday, as zonal flow remains in place across much of the Gulf Coast region. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is forecast to be located across south-central and southeast Texas. South of this boundary, a moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints in the 60s F. Surface heating will result in destabilization across this airmass during the day. As instability peaks during the afternoon, and as low-level convergence increases along and near the front, scattered thunderstorm development is expected. ECMWF forecast soundings in south-central Texas during the late afternoon suggest that MLCAPE will peak near 1200 J/kg, and that 0-6 km shear will be around 40 knots. This would be favorable for an isolated severe threat. The stronger storms could be associated with isolated damaging wind gusts and hail. However, limited large-scale ascent and poor lapse rates will likely keep any severe threat marginal. ..Broyles.. 04/19/2024 Read more