SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...Central Nevada... Increasing mid-level flow on the southeastern periphery of a cut off low off the northern CA coast will overspread portions of the Great Basin today. A very dry boundary layer with single digit relative humidity and sustained south/southwest winds of around 15 mph will support elevated fire weather conditions over portions of central Nevada this afternoon. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) for isolated dry thunderstorms across far northern CA into south-central OR remains consistent with latest short term model guidance. ..Williams.. 07/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel low off the northern/central CA coast will move slowly northward through the period. Related midlevel ascent will overspread northern CA into southern OR, aiding in the development of isolated high-based thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Deep inverted-V soundings with 0.5-0.75 inch PW will favor dry thunderstorms, with an associated risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty outflow winds atop receptive fuels. Farther south, enhanced southerly flow peripheral to the midlevel low will overspread a well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin. This will promote locally dry/breezy conditions, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible over parts of central/southern NV during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...Central Nevada... Increasing mid-level flow on the southeastern periphery of a cut off low off the northern CA coast will overspread portions of the Great Basin today. A very dry boundary layer with single digit relative humidity and sustained south/southwest winds of around 15 mph will support elevated fire weather conditions over portions of central Nevada this afternoon. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) for isolated dry thunderstorms across far northern CA into south-central OR remains consistent with latest short term model guidance. ..Williams.. 07/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel low off the northern/central CA coast will move slowly northward through the period. Related midlevel ascent will overspread northern CA into southern OR, aiding in the development of isolated high-based thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Deep inverted-V soundings with 0.5-0.75 inch PW will favor dry thunderstorms, with an associated risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty outflow winds atop receptive fuels. Farther south, enhanced southerly flow peripheral to the midlevel low will overspread a well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin. This will promote locally dry/breezy conditions, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible over parts of central/southern NV during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...Central Nevada... Increasing mid-level flow on the southeastern periphery of a cut off low off the northern CA coast will overspread portions of the Great Basin today. A very dry boundary layer with single digit relative humidity and sustained south/southwest winds of around 15 mph will support elevated fire weather conditions over portions of central Nevada this afternoon. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) for isolated dry thunderstorms across far northern CA into south-central OR remains consistent with latest short term model guidance. ..Williams.. 07/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel low off the northern/central CA coast will move slowly northward through the period. Related midlevel ascent will overspread northern CA into southern OR, aiding in the development of isolated high-based thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Deep inverted-V soundings with 0.5-0.75 inch PW will favor dry thunderstorms, with an associated risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty outflow winds atop receptive fuels. Farther south, enhanced southerly flow peripheral to the midlevel low will overspread a well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin. This will promote locally dry/breezy conditions, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible over parts of central/southern NV during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...Central Nevada... Increasing mid-level flow on the southeastern periphery of a cut off low off the northern CA coast will overspread portions of the Great Basin today. A very dry boundary layer with single digit relative humidity and sustained south/southwest winds of around 15 mph will support elevated fire weather conditions over portions of central Nevada this afternoon. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) for isolated dry thunderstorms across far northern CA into south-central OR remains consistent with latest short term model guidance. ..Williams.. 07/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel low off the northern/central CA coast will move slowly northward through the period. Related midlevel ascent will overspread northern CA into southern OR, aiding in the development of isolated high-based thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Deep inverted-V soundings with 0.5-0.75 inch PW will favor dry thunderstorms, with an associated risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty outflow winds atop receptive fuels. Farther south, enhanced southerly flow peripheral to the midlevel low will overspread a well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin. This will promote locally dry/breezy conditions, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible over parts of central/southern NV during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...Central Nevada... Increasing mid-level flow on the southeastern periphery of a cut off low off the northern CA coast will overspread portions of the Great Basin today. A very dry boundary layer with single digit relative humidity and sustained south/southwest winds of around 15 mph will support elevated fire weather conditions over portions of central Nevada this afternoon. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) for isolated dry thunderstorms across far northern CA into south-central OR remains consistent with latest short term model guidance. ..Williams.. 07/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel low off the northern/central CA coast will move slowly northward through the period. Related midlevel ascent will overspread northern CA into southern OR, aiding in the development of isolated high-based thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Deep inverted-V soundings with 0.5-0.75 inch PW will favor dry thunderstorms, with an associated risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty outflow winds atop receptive fuels. Farther south, enhanced southerly flow peripheral to the midlevel low will overspread a well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin. This will promote locally dry/breezy conditions, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible over parts of central/southern NV during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...Central Nevada... Increasing mid-level flow on the southeastern periphery of a cut off low off the northern CA coast will overspread portions of the Great Basin today. A very dry boundary layer with single digit relative humidity and sustained south/southwest winds of around 15 mph will support elevated fire weather conditions over portions of central Nevada this afternoon. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) for isolated dry thunderstorms across far northern CA into south-central OR remains consistent with latest short term model guidance. ..Williams.. 07/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel low off the northern/central CA coast will move slowly northward through the period. Related midlevel ascent will overspread northern CA into southern OR, aiding in the development of isolated high-based thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Deep inverted-V soundings with 0.5-0.75 inch PW will favor dry thunderstorms, with an associated risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty outflow winds atop receptive fuels. Farther south, enhanced southerly flow peripheral to the midlevel low will overspread a well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin. This will promote locally dry/breezy conditions, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible over parts of central/southern NV during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...Central Nevada... Increasing mid-level flow on the southeastern periphery of a cut off low off the northern CA coast will overspread portions of the Great Basin today. A very dry boundary layer with single digit relative humidity and sustained south/southwest winds of around 15 mph will support elevated fire weather conditions over portions of central Nevada this afternoon. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) for isolated dry thunderstorms across far northern CA into south-central OR remains consistent with latest short term model guidance. ..Williams.. 07/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel low off the northern/central CA coast will move slowly northward through the period. Related midlevel ascent will overspread northern CA into southern OR, aiding in the development of isolated high-based thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Deep inverted-V soundings with 0.5-0.75 inch PW will favor dry thunderstorms, with an associated risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty outflow winds atop receptive fuels. Farther south, enhanced southerly flow peripheral to the midlevel low will overspread a well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin. This will promote locally dry/breezy conditions, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible over parts of central/southern NV during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Jul 7, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central into northern Plains. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats. Isolated damaging winds are also possible across parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys, and the Northeast. ...SD/NE/KS/CO... A complex evolution of convection is expected this afternoon and evening across the central Plains. One line/cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop from the showers across SD. Continued daytime heating will eventually lead to intensification and organization of storms building southeastward into NE and western IA. These storms will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Farther southwest, storms are expected to develop and spread eastward across southeast WY and northeast CO (similar to yesterday) and eventually track into western NE/KS. These storms will also pose risk of damaging winds and hail through the early evening. It appears likely that these two convective regimes will congeal during the evening, with more of a southward push into KS and eventually northern OK late tonight, although the severe risk by that time is uncertain. ...OH to ME... A warm/humid air mass is present today from OH northeastward across parts of NY/PA and northern New England. Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected along this entire corridor. Strong daytime heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, with sufficient mid-level westerly flow to aid in gusty/damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Karstens.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 7, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central into northern Plains. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats. Isolated damaging winds are also possible across parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys, and the Northeast. ...SD/NE/KS/CO... A complex evolution of convection is expected this afternoon and evening across the central Plains. One line/cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop from the showers across SD. Continued daytime heating will eventually lead to intensification and organization of storms building southeastward into NE and western IA. These storms will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Farther southwest, storms are expected to develop and spread eastward across southeast WY and northeast CO (similar to yesterday) and eventually track into western NE/KS. These storms will also pose risk of damaging winds and hail through the early evening. It appears likely that these two convective regimes will congeal during the evening, with more of a southward push into KS and eventually northern OK late tonight, although the severe risk by that time is uncertain. ...OH to ME... A warm/humid air mass is present today from OH northeastward across parts of NY/PA and northern New England. Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected along this entire corridor. Strong daytime heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, with sufficient mid-level westerly flow to aid in gusty/damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Karstens.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 7, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central into northern Plains. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats. Isolated damaging winds are also possible across parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys, and the Northeast. ...SD/NE/KS/CO... A complex evolution of convection is expected this afternoon and evening across the central Plains. One line/cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop from the showers across SD. Continued daytime heating will eventually lead to intensification and organization of storms building southeastward into NE and western IA. These storms will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Farther southwest, storms are expected to develop and spread eastward across southeast WY and northeast CO (similar to yesterday) and eventually track into western NE/KS. These storms will also pose risk of damaging winds and hail through the early evening. It appears likely that these two convective regimes will congeal during the evening, with more of a southward push into KS and eventually northern OK late tonight, although the severe risk by that time is uncertain. ...OH to ME... A warm/humid air mass is present today from OH northeastward across parts of NY/PA and northern New England. Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected along this entire corridor. Strong daytime heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, with sufficient mid-level westerly flow to aid in gusty/damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Karstens.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 7, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central into northern Plains. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats. Isolated damaging winds are also possible across parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys, and the Northeast. ...SD/NE/KS/CO... A complex evolution of convection is expected this afternoon and evening across the central Plains. One line/cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop from the showers across SD. Continued daytime heating will eventually lead to intensification and organization of storms building southeastward into NE and western IA. These storms will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Farther southwest, storms are expected to develop and spread eastward across southeast WY and northeast CO (similar to yesterday) and eventually track into western NE/KS. These storms will also pose risk of damaging winds and hail through the early evening. It appears likely that these two convective regimes will congeal during the evening, with more of a southward push into KS and eventually northern OK late tonight, although the severe risk by that time is uncertain. ...OH to ME... A warm/humid air mass is present today from OH northeastward across parts of NY/PA and northern New England. Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected along this entire corridor. Strong daytime heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, with sufficient mid-level westerly flow to aid in gusty/damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Karstens.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 7, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central into northern Plains. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats. Isolated damaging winds are also possible across parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys, and the Northeast. ...SD/NE/KS/CO... A complex evolution of convection is expected this afternoon and evening across the central Plains. One line/cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop from the showers across SD. Continued daytime heating will eventually lead to intensification and organization of storms building southeastward into NE and western IA. These storms will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Farther southwest, storms are expected to develop and spread eastward across southeast WY and northeast CO (similar to yesterday) and eventually track into western NE/KS. These storms will also pose risk of damaging winds and hail through the early evening. It appears likely that these two convective regimes will congeal during the evening, with more of a southward push into KS and eventually northern OK late tonight, although the severe risk by that time is uncertain. ...OH to ME... A warm/humid air mass is present today from OH northeastward across parts of NY/PA and northern New England. Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected along this entire corridor. Strong daytime heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, with sufficient mid-level westerly flow to aid in gusty/damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Karstens.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 7, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central into northern Plains. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats. Isolated damaging winds are also possible across parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys, and the Northeast. ...SD/NE/KS/CO... A complex evolution of convection is expected this afternoon and evening across the central Plains. One line/cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop from the showers across SD. Continued daytime heating will eventually lead to intensification and organization of storms building southeastward into NE and western IA. These storms will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Farther southwest, storms are expected to develop and spread eastward across southeast WY and northeast CO (similar to yesterday) and eventually track into western NE/KS. These storms will also pose risk of damaging winds and hail through the early evening. It appears likely that these two convective regimes will congeal during the evening, with more of a southward push into KS and eventually northern OK late tonight, although the severe risk by that time is uncertain. ...OH to ME... A warm/humid air mass is present today from OH northeastward across parts of NY/PA and northern New England. Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected along this entire corridor. Strong daytime heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, with sufficient mid-level westerly flow to aid in gusty/damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Karstens.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 7, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central into northern Plains. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats. Isolated damaging winds are also possible across parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys, and the Northeast. ...SD/NE/KS/CO... A complex evolution of convection is expected this afternoon and evening across the central Plains. One line/cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop from the showers across SD. Continued daytime heating will eventually lead to intensification and organization of storms building southeastward into NE and western IA. These storms will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Farther southwest, storms are expected to develop and spread eastward across southeast WY and northeast CO (similar to yesterday) and eventually track into western NE/KS. These storms will also pose risk of damaging winds and hail through the early evening. It appears likely that these two convective regimes will congeal during the evening, with more of a southward push into KS and eventually northern OK late tonight, although the severe risk by that time is uncertain. ...OH to ME... A warm/humid air mass is present today from OH northeastward across parts of NY/PA and northern New England. Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected along this entire corridor. Strong daytime heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, with sufficient mid-level westerly flow to aid in gusty/damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Karstens.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 7, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central into northern Plains. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats. Isolated damaging winds are also possible across parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys, and the Northeast. ...SD/NE/KS/CO... A complex evolution of convection is expected this afternoon and evening across the central Plains. One line/cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop from the showers across SD. Continued daytime heating will eventually lead to intensification and organization of storms building southeastward into NE and western IA. These storms will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Farther southwest, storms are expected to develop and spread eastward across southeast WY and northeast CO (similar to yesterday) and eventually track into western NE/KS. These storms will also pose risk of damaging winds and hail through the early evening. It appears likely that these two convective regimes will congeal during the evening, with more of a southward push into KS and eventually northern OK late tonight, although the severe risk by that time is uncertain. ...OH to ME... A warm/humid air mass is present today from OH northeastward across parts of NY/PA and northern New England. Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected along this entire corridor. Strong daytime heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, with sufficient mid-level westerly flow to aid in gusty/damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Karstens.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 7, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central into northern Plains. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats. Isolated damaging winds are also possible across parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys, and the Northeast. ...SD/NE/KS/CO... A complex evolution of convection is expected this afternoon and evening across the central Plains. One line/cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop from the showers across SD. Continued daytime heating will eventually lead to intensification and organization of storms building southeastward into NE and western IA. These storms will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Farther southwest, storms are expected to develop and spread eastward across southeast WY and northeast CO (similar to yesterday) and eventually track into western NE/KS. These storms will also pose risk of damaging winds and hail through the early evening. It appears likely that these two convective regimes will congeal during the evening, with more of a southward push into KS and eventually northern OK late tonight, although the severe risk by that time is uncertain. ...OH to ME... A warm/humid air mass is present today from OH northeastward across parts of NY/PA and northern New England. Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected along this entire corridor. Strong daytime heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, with sufficient mid-level westerly flow to aid in gusty/damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Karstens.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 7, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central into northern Plains. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats. Isolated damaging winds are also possible across parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys, and the Northeast. ...SD/NE/KS/CO... A complex evolution of convection is expected this afternoon and evening across the central Plains. One line/cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop from the showers across SD. Continued daytime heating will eventually lead to intensification and organization of storms building southeastward into NE and western IA. These storms will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Farther southwest, storms are expected to develop and spread eastward across southeast WY and northeast CO (similar to yesterday) and eventually track into western NE/KS. These storms will also pose risk of damaging winds and hail through the early evening. It appears likely that these two convective regimes will congeal during the evening, with more of a southward push into KS and eventually northern OK late tonight, although the severe risk by that time is uncertain. ...OH to ME... A warm/humid air mass is present today from OH northeastward across parts of NY/PA and northern New England. Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected along this entire corridor. Strong daytime heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, with sufficient mid-level westerly flow to aid in gusty/damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Karstens.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 7, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central into northern Plains. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats. Isolated damaging winds are also possible across parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys, and the Northeast. ...SD/NE/KS/CO... A complex evolution of convection is expected this afternoon and evening across the central Plains. One line/cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop from the showers across SD. Continued daytime heating will eventually lead to intensification and organization of storms building southeastward into NE and western IA. These storms will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Farther southwest, storms are expected to develop and spread eastward across southeast WY and northeast CO (similar to yesterday) and eventually track into western NE/KS. These storms will also pose risk of damaging winds and hail through the early evening. It appears likely that these two convective regimes will congeal during the evening, with more of a southward push into KS and eventually northern OK late tonight, although the severe risk by that time is uncertain. ...OH to ME... A warm/humid air mass is present today from OH northeastward across parts of NY/PA and northern New England. Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected along this entire corridor. Strong daytime heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, with sufficient mid-level westerly flow to aid in gusty/damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Karstens.. 07/07/2025 Read more

Tropical Depression Chantal Forecast Advisory Number 8

1 month 1 week ago
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 06 2025 109 WTNT23 KNHC 061435 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032025 1500 UTC SUN JUL 06 2025 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 79.2W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 79.2W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 79.2W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 35.4N 79.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 37.0N 77.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.4N 79.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON CHANTAL. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING AT 2100 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCMAT3, WMO HEADER WTNT23 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV $$ FORECASTER BROWN
NHC Webmaster