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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms are possible in the northern Plains on Wednesday, with locally large hail and areas of severe gusts. Isolated damaging gusts are also possible across parts of the eastern U.S. ...Northern Plains... An upper high will remain over the Four Corners states on Wednesday, with ridge extending northward into MT. This ridge will break down late in the day as a large trough sweeps along the Canadian border, and a separate smaller shortwave moves across the Great Basin. During the day, a surface trough will deepen over the northern to central High Plains, with southerly surface winds maintaining a plume of 60s F dewpoints. Strong heating will occur beneath the initial ridge, resulting in an uncapped air mass. Storms will form near this trough from the central Dakotas into western NE, with widely scattered storms traveling southeastward and producing localized corridors of large hail and damaging gusts. A significant hail storm may occur as upper-level winds increase, elongating hodographs beneath the steep-lapse rates aloft. ...VA...MD...DE...Carolinas... An upper trough will continue eastward across eastern Ontario and into Quebec, with modest southwest winds of 30 kt at 500 mb as far south as VA. In contrast to the previous day, lapse rates and instability are not forecast to be as strong, due to lingering clouds and perhaps areas of outflow from early day rain. However, the air mass will again destabilize, with modest instability developing. Storms will form over the higher terrain during the later afternoon, with areas of strong outflow pushing east through evening. ..Jewell.. 07/07/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071742
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Jul 7 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Central East Pacific (EP96):
Shower and thunderstorm activity in association with an area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is limited this
morning. The system is moving west-northward into less favorable
environmental conditions, and its chance of development is
decreasing.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles offshore of
southwestern Mexico late this week. Environmental conditions are
expected to be marginally conducive for development, and while some
tropical development is possible, it is becoming less likely as the
low pressure area moves generally west-northwestward well off the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

394
ABNT20 KNHC 071737
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Chantal, located inland over the Delmarva peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jul 7 17:33:01 UTC 2025.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts are most probable over parts of the Mid Atlantic, and over much of Oklahoma. ...Parts of the central/southern Plains to the mid MS Valley... A weak northwest flow pattern will exist over the central and southern Plains on Tuesday, around an upper high over the Four Corners region. Of note are relatively cool midlevel temperatures for this time of year, with -8 to -10 C at 500 mb from OK into KS. At the surface, a boundary will stretch from parts of northern MO into southern KS, possibly enhanced by areas of early convection. Strong heating and a very moist air mass will lead to strong destabilization, especially across KS, OK, MO and northern TX. While model solutions do vary with timing of redevelopment along this boundary, the overarching theme is for one or more clusters of storms to form late in the day, with a southward propagation. Given substantial instability and precipitable water content, areas of severe wind gusts appear likely with any MCS. Depending on how organized such an MCS becomes, it could potentially reach northern TX by 12Z Wednesday with wind potential. ...Mid Atlantic... An upper trough will move across the Great Lakes region Tuesday, with peripheral effects across parts of the area. A surface trough will deepen during the day along the I-95 corridor, where a very moist and unstable air mass will exist due to 70s F dewpoints and strong heating. Forecast soundings indicate tall, moist CAPE profiles with MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and precipitable water values over 2.00 inches. This should foster robust storms with heavy water loading and severe downdraft potential. Storms should form by early afternoon over eastern WV/western and northern VA, with an upward trend in coverage and intensity across southeast PA, northern and central VA, MD, DE and NJ. Strong to severe wind gusts appear likely with these storms, especially as outflows merge after about 21Z. ..Jewell.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts are most probable over parts of the Mid Atlantic, and over much of Oklahoma. ...Parts of the central/southern Plains to the mid MS Valley... A weak northwest flow pattern will exist over the central and southern Plains on Tuesday, around an upper high over the Four Corners region. Of note are relatively cool midlevel temperatures for this time of year, with -8 to -10 C at 500 mb from OK into KS. At the surface, a boundary will stretch from parts of northern MO into southern KS, possibly enhanced by areas of early convection. Strong heating and a very moist air mass will lead to strong destabilization, especially across KS, OK, MO and northern TX. While model solutions do vary with timing of redevelopment along this boundary, the overarching theme is for one or more clusters of storms to form late in the day, with a southward propagation. Given substantial instability and precipitable water content, areas of severe wind gusts appear likely with any MCS. Depending on how organized such an MCS becomes, it could potentially reach northern TX by 12Z Wednesday with wind potential. ...Mid Atlantic... An upper trough will move across the Great Lakes region Tuesday, with peripheral effects across parts of the area. A surface trough will deepen during the day along the I-95 corridor, where a very moist and unstable air mass will exist due to 70s F dewpoints and strong heating. Forecast soundings indicate tall, moist CAPE profiles with MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and precipitable water values over 2.00 inches. This should foster robust storms with heavy water loading and severe downdraft potential. Storms should form by early afternoon over eastern WV/western and northern VA, with an upward trend in coverage and intensity across southeast PA, northern and central VA, MD, DE and NJ. Strong to severe wind gusts appear likely with these storms, especially as outflows merge after about 21Z. ..Jewell.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts are most probable over parts of the Mid Atlantic, and over much of Oklahoma. ...Parts of the central/southern Plains to the mid MS Valley... A weak northwest flow pattern will exist over the central and southern Plains on Tuesday, around an upper high over the Four Corners region. Of note are relatively cool midlevel temperatures for this time of year, with -8 to -10 C at 500 mb from OK into KS. At the surface, a boundary will stretch from parts of northern MO into southern KS, possibly enhanced by areas of early convection. Strong heating and a very moist air mass will lead to strong destabilization, especially across KS, OK, MO and northern TX. While model solutions do vary with timing of redevelopment along this boundary, the overarching theme is for one or more clusters of storms to form late in the day, with a southward propagation. Given substantial instability and precipitable water content, areas of severe wind gusts appear likely with any MCS. Depending on how organized such an MCS becomes, it could potentially reach northern TX by 12Z Wednesday with wind potential. ...Mid Atlantic... An upper trough will move across the Great Lakes region Tuesday, with peripheral effects across parts of the area. A surface trough will deepen during the day along the I-95 corridor, where a very moist and unstable air mass will exist due to 70s F dewpoints and strong heating. Forecast soundings indicate tall, moist CAPE profiles with MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and precipitable water values over 2.00 inches. This should foster robust storms with heavy water loading and severe downdraft potential. Storms should form by early afternoon over eastern WV/western and northern VA, with an upward trend in coverage and intensity across southeast PA, northern and central VA, MD, DE and NJ. Strong to severe wind gusts appear likely with these storms, especially as outflows merge after about 21Z. ..Jewell.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts are most probable over parts of the Mid Atlantic, and over much of Oklahoma. ...Parts of the central/southern Plains to the mid MS Valley... A weak northwest flow pattern will exist over the central and southern Plains on Tuesday, around an upper high over the Four Corners region. Of note are relatively cool midlevel temperatures for this time of year, with -8 to -10 C at 500 mb from OK into KS. At the surface, a boundary will stretch from parts of northern MO into southern KS, possibly enhanced by areas of early convection. Strong heating and a very moist air mass will lead to strong destabilization, especially across KS, OK, MO and northern TX. While model solutions do vary with timing of redevelopment along this boundary, the overarching theme is for one or more clusters of storms to form late in the day, with a southward propagation. Given substantial instability and precipitable water content, areas of severe wind gusts appear likely with any MCS. Depending on how organized such an MCS becomes, it could potentially reach northern TX by 12Z Wednesday with wind potential. ...Mid Atlantic... An upper trough will move across the Great Lakes region Tuesday, with peripheral effects across parts of the area. A surface trough will deepen during the day along the I-95 corridor, where a very moist and unstable air mass will exist due to 70s F dewpoints and strong heating. Forecast soundings indicate tall, moist CAPE profiles with MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and precipitable water values over 2.00 inches. This should foster robust storms with heavy water loading and severe downdraft potential. Storms should form by early afternoon over eastern WV/western and northern VA, with an upward trend in coverage and intensity across southeast PA, northern and central VA, MD, DE and NJ. Strong to severe wind gusts appear likely with these storms, especially as outflows merge after about 21Z. ..Jewell.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts are most probable over parts of the Mid Atlantic, and over much of Oklahoma. ...Parts of the central/southern Plains to the mid MS Valley... A weak northwest flow pattern will exist over the central and southern Plains on Tuesday, around an upper high over the Four Corners region. Of note are relatively cool midlevel temperatures for this time of year, with -8 to -10 C at 500 mb from OK into KS. At the surface, a boundary will stretch from parts of northern MO into southern KS, possibly enhanced by areas of early convection. Strong heating and a very moist air mass will lead to strong destabilization, especially across KS, OK, MO and northern TX. While model solutions do vary with timing of redevelopment along this boundary, the overarching theme is for one or more clusters of storms to form late in the day, with a southward propagation. Given substantial instability and precipitable water content, areas of severe wind gusts appear likely with any MCS. Depending on how organized such an MCS becomes, it could potentially reach northern TX by 12Z Wednesday with wind potential. ...Mid Atlantic... An upper trough will move across the Great Lakes region Tuesday, with peripheral effects across parts of the area. A surface trough will deepen during the day along the I-95 corridor, where a very moist and unstable air mass will exist due to 70s F dewpoints and strong heating. Forecast soundings indicate tall, moist CAPE profiles with MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and precipitable water values over 2.00 inches. This should foster robust storms with heavy water loading and severe downdraft potential. Storms should form by early afternoon over eastern WV/western and northern VA, with an upward trend in coverage and intensity across southeast PA, northern and central VA, MD, DE and NJ. Strong to severe wind gusts appear likely with these storms, especially as outflows merge after about 21Z. ..Jewell.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts are most probable over parts of the Mid Atlantic, and over much of Oklahoma. ...Parts of the central/southern Plains to the mid MS Valley... A weak northwest flow pattern will exist over the central and southern Plains on Tuesday, around an upper high over the Four Corners region. Of note are relatively cool midlevel temperatures for this time of year, with -8 to -10 C at 500 mb from OK into KS. At the surface, a boundary will stretch from parts of northern MO into southern KS, possibly enhanced by areas of early convection. Strong heating and a very moist air mass will lead to strong destabilization, especially across KS, OK, MO and northern TX. While model solutions do vary with timing of redevelopment along this boundary, the overarching theme is for one or more clusters of storms to form late in the day, with a southward propagation. Given substantial instability and precipitable water content, areas of severe wind gusts appear likely with any MCS. Depending on how organized such an MCS becomes, it could potentially reach northern TX by 12Z Wednesday with wind potential. ...Mid Atlantic... An upper trough will move across the Great Lakes region Tuesday, with peripheral effects across parts of the area. A surface trough will deepen during the day along the I-95 corridor, where a very moist and unstable air mass will exist due to 70s F dewpoints and strong heating. Forecast soundings indicate tall, moist CAPE profiles with MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and precipitable water values over 2.00 inches. This should foster robust storms with heavy water loading and severe downdraft potential. Storms should form by early afternoon over eastern WV/western and northern VA, with an upward trend in coverage and intensity across southeast PA, northern and central VA, MD, DE and NJ. Strong to severe wind gusts appear likely with these storms, especially as outflows merge after about 21Z. ..Jewell.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts are most probable over parts of the Mid Atlantic, and over much of Oklahoma. ...Parts of the central/southern Plains to the mid MS Valley... A weak northwest flow pattern will exist over the central and southern Plains on Tuesday, around an upper high over the Four Corners region. Of note are relatively cool midlevel temperatures for this time of year, with -8 to -10 C at 500 mb from OK into KS. At the surface, a boundary will stretch from parts of northern MO into southern KS, possibly enhanced by areas of early convection. Strong heating and a very moist air mass will lead to strong destabilization, especially across KS, OK, MO and northern TX. While model solutions do vary with timing of redevelopment along this boundary, the overarching theme is for one or more clusters of storms to form late in the day, with a southward propagation. Given substantial instability and precipitable water content, areas of severe wind gusts appear likely with any MCS. Depending on how organized such an MCS becomes, it could potentially reach northern TX by 12Z Wednesday with wind potential. ...Mid Atlantic... An upper trough will move across the Great Lakes region Tuesday, with peripheral effects across parts of the area. A surface trough will deepen during the day along the I-95 corridor, where a very moist and unstable air mass will exist due to 70s F dewpoints and strong heating. Forecast soundings indicate tall, moist CAPE profiles with MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and precipitable water values over 2.00 inches. This should foster robust storms with heavy water loading and severe downdraft potential. Storms should form by early afternoon over eastern WV/western and northern VA, with an upward trend in coverage and intensity across southeast PA, northern and central VA, MD, DE and NJ. Strong to severe wind gusts appear likely with these storms, especially as outflows merge after about 21Z. ..Jewell.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts are most probable over parts of the Mid Atlantic, and over much of Oklahoma. ...Parts of the central/southern Plains to the mid MS Valley... A weak northwest flow pattern will exist over the central and southern Plains on Tuesday, around an upper high over the Four Corners region. Of note are relatively cool midlevel temperatures for this time of year, with -8 to -10 C at 500 mb from OK into KS. At the surface, a boundary will stretch from parts of northern MO into southern KS, possibly enhanced by areas of early convection. Strong heating and a very moist air mass will lead to strong destabilization, especially across KS, OK, MO and northern TX. While model solutions do vary with timing of redevelopment along this boundary, the overarching theme is for one or more clusters of storms to form late in the day, with a southward propagation. Given substantial instability and precipitable water content, areas of severe wind gusts appear likely with any MCS. Depending on how organized such an MCS becomes, it could potentially reach northern TX by 12Z Wednesday with wind potential. ...Mid Atlantic... An upper trough will move across the Great Lakes region Tuesday, with peripheral effects across parts of the area. A surface trough will deepen during the day along the I-95 corridor, where a very moist and unstable air mass will exist due to 70s F dewpoints and strong heating. Forecast soundings indicate tall, moist CAPE profiles with MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and precipitable water values over 2.00 inches. This should foster robust storms with heavy water loading and severe downdraft potential. Storms should form by early afternoon over eastern WV/western and northern VA, with an upward trend in coverage and intensity across southeast PA, northern and central VA, MD, DE and NJ. Strong to severe wind gusts appear likely with these storms, especially as outflows merge after about 21Z. ..Jewell.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts are most probable over parts of the Mid Atlantic, and over much of Oklahoma. ...Parts of the central/southern Plains to the mid MS Valley... A weak northwest flow pattern will exist over the central and southern Plains on Tuesday, around an upper high over the Four Corners region. Of note are relatively cool midlevel temperatures for this time of year, with -8 to -10 C at 500 mb from OK into KS. At the surface, a boundary will stretch from parts of northern MO into southern KS, possibly enhanced by areas of early convection. Strong heating and a very moist air mass will lead to strong destabilization, especially across KS, OK, MO and northern TX. While model solutions do vary with timing of redevelopment along this boundary, the overarching theme is for one or more clusters of storms to form late in the day, with a southward propagation. Given substantial instability and precipitable water content, areas of severe wind gusts appear likely with any MCS. Depending on how organized such an MCS becomes, it could potentially reach northern TX by 12Z Wednesday with wind potential. ...Mid Atlantic... An upper trough will move across the Great Lakes region Tuesday, with peripheral effects across parts of the area. A surface trough will deepen during the day along the I-95 corridor, where a very moist and unstable air mass will exist due to 70s F dewpoints and strong heating. Forecast soundings indicate tall, moist CAPE profiles with MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and precipitable water values over 2.00 inches. This should foster robust storms with heavy water loading and severe downdraft potential. Storms should form by early afternoon over eastern WV/western and northern VA, with an upward trend in coverage and intensity across southeast PA, northern and central VA, MD, DE and NJ. Strong to severe wind gusts appear likely with these storms, especially as outflows merge after about 21Z. ..Jewell.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts are most probable over parts of the Mid Atlantic, and over much of Oklahoma. ...Parts of the central/southern Plains to the mid MS Valley... A weak northwest flow pattern will exist over the central and southern Plains on Tuesday, around an upper high over the Four Corners region. Of note are relatively cool midlevel temperatures for this time of year, with -8 to -10 C at 500 mb from OK into KS. At the surface, a boundary will stretch from parts of northern MO into southern KS, possibly enhanced by areas of early convection. Strong heating and a very moist air mass will lead to strong destabilization, especially across KS, OK, MO and northern TX. While model solutions do vary with timing of redevelopment along this boundary, the overarching theme is for one or more clusters of storms to form late in the day, with a southward propagation. Given substantial instability and precipitable water content, areas of severe wind gusts appear likely with any MCS. Depending on how organized such an MCS becomes, it could potentially reach northern TX by 12Z Wednesday with wind potential. ...Mid Atlantic... An upper trough will move across the Great Lakes region Tuesday, with peripheral effects across parts of the area. A surface trough will deepen during the day along the I-95 corridor, where a very moist and unstable air mass will exist due to 70s F dewpoints and strong heating. Forecast soundings indicate tall, moist CAPE profiles with MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and precipitable water values over 2.00 inches. This should foster robust storms with heavy water loading and severe downdraft potential. Storms should form by early afternoon over eastern WV/western and northern VA, with an upward trend in coverage and intensity across southeast PA, northern and central VA, MD, DE and NJ. Strong to severe wind gusts appear likely with these storms, especially as outflows merge after about 21Z. ..Jewell.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts are most probable over parts of the Mid Atlantic, and over much of Oklahoma. ...Parts of the central/southern Plains to the mid MS Valley... A weak northwest flow pattern will exist over the central and southern Plains on Tuesday, around an upper high over the Four Corners region. Of note are relatively cool midlevel temperatures for this time of year, with -8 to -10 C at 500 mb from OK into KS. At the surface, a boundary will stretch from parts of northern MO into southern KS, possibly enhanced by areas of early convection. Strong heating and a very moist air mass will lead to strong destabilization, especially across KS, OK, MO and northern TX. While model solutions do vary with timing of redevelopment along this boundary, the overarching theme is for one or more clusters of storms to form late in the day, with a southward propagation. Given substantial instability and precipitable water content, areas of severe wind gusts appear likely with any MCS. Depending on how organized such an MCS becomes, it could potentially reach northern TX by 12Z Wednesday with wind potential. ...Mid Atlantic... An upper trough will move across the Great Lakes region Tuesday, with peripheral effects across parts of the area. A surface trough will deepen during the day along the I-95 corridor, where a very moist and unstable air mass will exist due to 70s F dewpoints and strong heating. Forecast soundings indicate tall, moist CAPE profiles with MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and precipitable water values over 2.00 inches. This should foster robust storms with heavy water loading and severe downdraft potential. Storms should form by early afternoon over eastern WV/western and northern VA, with an upward trend in coverage and intensity across southeast PA, northern and central VA, MD, DE and NJ. Strong to severe wind gusts appear likely with these storms, especially as outflows merge after about 21Z. ..Jewell.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts are most probable over parts of the Mid Atlantic, and over much of Oklahoma. ...Parts of the central/southern Plains to the mid MS Valley... A weak northwest flow pattern will exist over the central and southern Plains on Tuesday, around an upper high over the Four Corners region. Of note are relatively cool midlevel temperatures for this time of year, with -8 to -10 C at 500 mb from OK into KS. At the surface, a boundary will stretch from parts of northern MO into southern KS, possibly enhanced by areas of early convection. Strong heating and a very moist air mass will lead to strong destabilization, especially across KS, OK, MO and northern TX. While model solutions do vary with timing of redevelopment along this boundary, the overarching theme is for one or more clusters of storms to form late in the day, with a southward propagation. Given substantial instability and precipitable water content, areas of severe wind gusts appear likely with any MCS. Depending on how organized such an MCS becomes, it could potentially reach northern TX by 12Z Wednesday with wind potential. ...Mid Atlantic... An upper trough will move across the Great Lakes region Tuesday, with peripheral effects across parts of the area. A surface trough will deepen during the day along the I-95 corridor, where a very moist and unstable air mass will exist due to 70s F dewpoints and strong heating. Forecast soundings indicate tall, moist CAPE profiles with MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and precipitable water values over 2.00 inches. This should foster robust storms with heavy water loading and severe downdraft potential. Storms should form by early afternoon over eastern WV/western and northern VA, with an upward trend in coverage and intensity across southeast PA, northern and central VA, MD, DE and NJ. Strong to severe wind gusts appear likely with these storms, especially as outflows merge after about 21Z. ..Jewell.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...Central Nevada... Increasing mid-level flow on the southeastern periphery of a cut off low off the northern CA coast will overspread portions of the Great Basin today. A very dry boundary layer with single digit relative humidity and sustained south/southwest winds of around 15 mph will support elevated fire weather conditions over portions of central Nevada this afternoon. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) for isolated dry thunderstorms across far northern CA into south-central OR remains consistent with latest short term model guidance. ..Williams.. 07/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel low off the northern/central CA coast will move slowly northward through the period. Related midlevel ascent will overspread northern CA into southern OR, aiding in the development of isolated high-based thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Deep inverted-V soundings with 0.5-0.75 inch PW will favor dry thunderstorms, with an associated risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty outflow winds atop receptive fuels. Farther south, enhanced southerly flow peripheral to the midlevel low will overspread a well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin. This will promote locally dry/breezy conditions, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible over parts of central/southern NV during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...Central Nevada... Increasing mid-level flow on the southeastern periphery of a cut off low off the northern CA coast will overspread portions of the Great Basin today. A very dry boundary layer with single digit relative humidity and sustained south/southwest winds of around 15 mph will support elevated fire weather conditions over portions of central Nevada this afternoon. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) for isolated dry thunderstorms across far northern CA into south-central OR remains consistent with latest short term model guidance. ..Williams.. 07/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel low off the northern/central CA coast will move slowly northward through the period. Related midlevel ascent will overspread northern CA into southern OR, aiding in the development of isolated high-based thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Deep inverted-V soundings with 0.5-0.75 inch PW will favor dry thunderstorms, with an associated risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty outflow winds atop receptive fuels. Farther south, enhanced southerly flow peripheral to the midlevel low will overspread a well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin. This will promote locally dry/breezy conditions, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible over parts of central/southern NV during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...Central Nevada... Increasing mid-level flow on the southeastern periphery of a cut off low off the northern CA coast will overspread portions of the Great Basin today. A very dry boundary layer with single digit relative humidity and sustained south/southwest winds of around 15 mph will support elevated fire weather conditions over portions of central Nevada this afternoon. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) for isolated dry thunderstorms across far northern CA into south-central OR remains consistent with latest short term model guidance. ..Williams.. 07/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel low off the northern/central CA coast will move slowly northward through the period. Related midlevel ascent will overspread northern CA into southern OR, aiding in the development of isolated high-based thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Deep inverted-V soundings with 0.5-0.75 inch PW will favor dry thunderstorms, with an associated risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty outflow winds atop receptive fuels. Farther south, enhanced southerly flow peripheral to the midlevel low will overspread a well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin. This will promote locally dry/breezy conditions, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible over parts of central/southern NV during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...Central Nevada... Increasing mid-level flow on the southeastern periphery of a cut off low off the northern CA coast will overspread portions of the Great Basin today. A very dry boundary layer with single digit relative humidity and sustained south/southwest winds of around 15 mph will support elevated fire weather conditions over portions of central Nevada this afternoon. Otherwise, previous forecast (see below) for isolated dry thunderstorms across far northern CA into south-central OR remains consistent with latest short term model guidance. ..Williams.. 07/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel low off the northern/central CA coast will move slowly northward through the period. Related midlevel ascent will overspread northern CA into southern OR, aiding in the development of isolated high-based thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Deep inverted-V soundings with 0.5-0.75 inch PW will favor dry thunderstorms, with an associated risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty outflow winds atop receptive fuels. Farther south, enhanced southerly flow peripheral to the midlevel low will overspread a well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin. This will promote locally dry/breezy conditions, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible over parts of central/southern NV during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more