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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel low off the northern/central CA coast will move slowly northward through the period. Related midlevel ascent will overspread northern CA into southern OR, aiding in the development of isolated high-based thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Deep inverted-V soundings with 0.5-0.75 inch PW will favor dry thunderstorms, with an associated risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty outflow winds atop receptive fuels. Farther south, enhanced southerly flow peripheral to the midlevel low will overspread a well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin. This will promote locally dry/breezy conditions, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible over parts of central/southern NV during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 07/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1587 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 491... FOR WESTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1587 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Areas affected...Western Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 491... Valid 070429Z - 070630Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 491 continues. SUMMARY...Strong-severe thunderstorms will propagate southeast across ww491. Damaging winds are the primary concern. DISCUSSION...A very weak short-wave trough appears to have crested the ridge and is digging southeast across the central High Plains late this evening. Scattered robust convection has gradually coalesced into a linear MCS which currently extends from northwestern KS into extreme eastern CO. A narrow axis of modest instability is noted across southwest KS, along and north of a boundary that stretches across the OK Panhandle into far southeast CO. This boundary is being reinforced a bit by scattered convection along the KS/OK border into northwest OK. Net result will likely be for the ongoing MCS to continue tracking southeast, aided in part by southeasterly low-level inflow. 56kt gust was reported at GLD with the squall line, and this type of wind may continue to be reported as the MCS propagates toward southwestern KS over the next several hours. ..Darrow.. 07/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR... LAT...LON 44260440 44390275 44840139 43240152 43580439 44260440 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0491 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 491 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE LAA TO 30 WNW GCK TO 35 NNW GCK TO 55 N GCK TO 50 WSW HLC. ..MARSH..07/07/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 491 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC055-063-067-069-075-081-093-101-171-070740- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FINNEY GOVE GRANT GRAY HAMILTON HASKELL KEARNY LANE SCOTT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0491 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 491 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE LAA TO 30 WNW GCK TO 35 NNW GCK TO 55 N GCK TO 50 WSW HLC. ..MARSH..07/07/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 491 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC055-063-067-069-075-081-093-101-171-070740- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FINNEY GOVE GRANT GRAY HAMILTON HASKELL KEARNY LANE SCOTT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 491 SEVERE TSTM KS 070335Z - 070900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 491 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Kansas * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 1035 PM until 400 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...A small cluster of thunderstorms may continue to pose a threat for mainly severe/damaging winds as it spreads into parts of western Kansas late this evening into early Monday morning. Peak gusts may reach up to 65-75 mph on an isolated basis. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles south southwest of Goodland KS to 25 miles east northeast of Garden City KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 490... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 32035. ...Gleason Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THE CAROLINAS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and from the Carolinas into the Northeast tomorrow (Tuesday). ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will persist across the Southwest as mid-level troughs impinge on the OH Valleys and the West Coast tomorrow (Tuesday). Weak surface troughs will be positioned over the Northeast and MS Valley into the southern Plains by afternoon, promoting lift of a moist low-level airmass. Enough buoyancy will be in place, amid modest vertical wind shear, to promote the development of organized thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to potentially severe. ...Carolinas into southern New England... Scattered thunderstorms will develop by early afternoon, as surface temperatures warm well into the 80s F amid 70+ F dewpoints, eroding MLCINH and boosting MLCAPE to 2000-3000 J/kg. Poor mid-level lapse rates will result in the aforementioned buoyancy being constrained to tall/thin profiles, amid 15-25 kts of effective bulk shear. The stronger storms should be multicellular, capable of mainly damaging gusts. ...Mid-MS Valley into the southern Plains... Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon given the abundance of low-level moisture and minimal convective inhibition. Storm development is particularly likely along leftover boundaries from preceding storms on Day 1. Surface temperatures approaching 90 F, with dewpoints exceeding 70 F, will contribute to over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE given 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates. As the mid-level trough moves away toward the OH Valley, mid-level flow will shift to northwesterly, above southerly low-level winds, contributing to 25 kts of effective bulk shear. Multiple merging multicells may form one or more southward-moving MCSs capable of producing a few strong to severe gusts. ...Central to Southern High Plains... Weak upslope flow of 60 F surface dewpoints, from the southeast, beneath northwesterly flow and 8-9 C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates, will yield 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE amid straight hodographs and 35 kts of effective bulk shear. By afternoon peak heating, isolated supercell will move off of the higher terrain, accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THE CAROLINAS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and from the Carolinas into the Northeast tomorrow (Tuesday). ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will persist across the Southwest as mid-level troughs impinge on the OH Valleys and the West Coast tomorrow (Tuesday). Weak surface troughs will be positioned over the Northeast and MS Valley into the southern Plains by afternoon, promoting lift of a moist low-level airmass. Enough buoyancy will be in place, amid modest vertical wind shear, to promote the development of organized thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to potentially severe. ...Carolinas into southern New England... Scattered thunderstorms will develop by early afternoon, as surface temperatures warm well into the 80s F amid 70+ F dewpoints, eroding MLCINH and boosting MLCAPE to 2000-3000 J/kg. Poor mid-level lapse rates will result in the aforementioned buoyancy being constrained to tall/thin profiles, amid 15-25 kts of effective bulk shear. The stronger storms should be multicellular, capable of mainly damaging gusts. ...Mid-MS Valley into the southern Plains... Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon given the abundance of low-level moisture and minimal convective inhibition. Storm development is particularly likely along leftover boundaries from preceding storms on Day 1. Surface temperatures approaching 90 F, with dewpoints exceeding 70 F, will contribute to over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE given 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates. As the mid-level trough moves away toward the OH Valley, mid-level flow will shift to northwesterly, above southerly low-level winds, contributing to 25 kts of effective bulk shear. Multiple merging multicells may form one or more southward-moving MCSs capable of producing a few strong to severe gusts. ...Central to Southern High Plains... Weak upslope flow of 60 F surface dewpoints, from the southeast, beneath northwesterly flow and 8-9 C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates, will yield 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE amid straight hodographs and 35 kts of effective bulk shear. By afternoon peak heating, isolated supercell will move off of the higher terrain, accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THE CAROLINAS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and from the Carolinas into the Northeast tomorrow (Tuesday). ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will persist across the Southwest as mid-level troughs impinge on the OH Valleys and the West Coast tomorrow (Tuesday). Weak surface troughs will be positioned over the Northeast and MS Valley into the southern Plains by afternoon, promoting lift of a moist low-level airmass. Enough buoyancy will be in place, amid modest vertical wind shear, to promote the development of organized thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to potentially severe. ...Carolinas into southern New England... Scattered thunderstorms will develop by early afternoon, as surface temperatures warm well into the 80s F amid 70+ F dewpoints, eroding MLCINH and boosting MLCAPE to 2000-3000 J/kg. Poor mid-level lapse rates will result in the aforementioned buoyancy being constrained to tall/thin profiles, amid 15-25 kts of effective bulk shear. The stronger storms should be multicellular, capable of mainly damaging gusts. ...Mid-MS Valley into the southern Plains... Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon given the abundance of low-level moisture and minimal convective inhibition. Storm development is particularly likely along leftover boundaries from preceding storms on Day 1. Surface temperatures approaching 90 F, with dewpoints exceeding 70 F, will contribute to over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE given 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates. As the mid-level trough moves away toward the OH Valley, mid-level flow will shift to northwesterly, above southerly low-level winds, contributing to 25 kts of effective bulk shear. Multiple merging multicells may form one or more southward-moving MCSs capable of producing a few strong to severe gusts. ...Central to Southern High Plains... Weak upslope flow of 60 F surface dewpoints, from the southeast, beneath northwesterly flow and 8-9 C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates, will yield 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE amid straight hodographs and 35 kts of effective bulk shear. By afternoon peak heating, isolated supercell will move off of the higher terrain, accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THE CAROLINAS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and from the Carolinas into the Northeast tomorrow (Tuesday). ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will persist across the Southwest as mid-level troughs impinge on the OH Valleys and the West Coast tomorrow (Tuesday). Weak surface troughs will be positioned over the Northeast and MS Valley into the southern Plains by afternoon, promoting lift of a moist low-level airmass. Enough buoyancy will be in place, amid modest vertical wind shear, to promote the development of organized thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to potentially severe. ...Carolinas into southern New England... Scattered thunderstorms will develop by early afternoon, as surface temperatures warm well into the 80s F amid 70+ F dewpoints, eroding MLCINH and boosting MLCAPE to 2000-3000 J/kg. Poor mid-level lapse rates will result in the aforementioned buoyancy being constrained to tall/thin profiles, amid 15-25 kts of effective bulk shear. The stronger storms should be multicellular, capable of mainly damaging gusts. ...Mid-MS Valley into the southern Plains... Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon given the abundance of low-level moisture and minimal convective inhibition. Storm development is particularly likely along leftover boundaries from preceding storms on Day 1. Surface temperatures approaching 90 F, with dewpoints exceeding 70 F, will contribute to over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE given 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates. As the mid-level trough moves away toward the OH Valley, mid-level flow will shift to northwesterly, above southerly low-level winds, contributing to 25 kts of effective bulk shear. Multiple merging multicells may form one or more southward-moving MCSs capable of producing a few strong to severe gusts. ...Central to Southern High Plains... Weak upslope flow of 60 F surface dewpoints, from the southeast, beneath northwesterly flow and 8-9 C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates, will yield 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE amid straight hodographs and 35 kts of effective bulk shear. By afternoon peak heating, isolated supercell will move off of the higher terrain, accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THE CAROLINAS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and from the Carolinas into the Northeast tomorrow (Tuesday). ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will persist across the Southwest as mid-level troughs impinge on the OH Valleys and the West Coast tomorrow (Tuesday). Weak surface troughs will be positioned over the Northeast and MS Valley into the southern Plains by afternoon, promoting lift of a moist low-level airmass. Enough buoyancy will be in place, amid modest vertical wind shear, to promote the development of organized thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to potentially severe. ...Carolinas into southern New England... Scattered thunderstorms will develop by early afternoon, as surface temperatures warm well into the 80s F amid 70+ F dewpoints, eroding MLCINH and boosting MLCAPE to 2000-3000 J/kg. Poor mid-level lapse rates will result in the aforementioned buoyancy being constrained to tall/thin profiles, amid 15-25 kts of effective bulk shear. The stronger storms should be multicellular, capable of mainly damaging gusts. ...Mid-MS Valley into the southern Plains... Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon given the abundance of low-level moisture and minimal convective inhibition. Storm development is particularly likely along leftover boundaries from preceding storms on Day 1. Surface temperatures approaching 90 F, with dewpoints exceeding 70 F, will contribute to over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE given 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates. As the mid-level trough moves away toward the OH Valley, mid-level flow will shift to northwesterly, above southerly low-level winds, contributing to 25 kts of effective bulk shear. Multiple merging multicells may form one or more southward-moving MCSs capable of producing a few strong to severe gusts. ...Central to Southern High Plains... Weak upslope flow of 60 F surface dewpoints, from the southeast, beneath northwesterly flow and 8-9 C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates, will yield 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE amid straight hodographs and 35 kts of effective bulk shear. By afternoon peak heating, isolated supercell will move off of the higher terrain, accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THE CAROLINAS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and from the Carolinas into the Northeast tomorrow (Tuesday). ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will persist across the Southwest as mid-level troughs impinge on the OH Valleys and the West Coast tomorrow (Tuesday). Weak surface troughs will be positioned over the Northeast and MS Valley into the southern Plains by afternoon, promoting lift of a moist low-level airmass. Enough buoyancy will be in place, amid modest vertical wind shear, to promote the development of organized thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to potentially severe. ...Carolinas into southern New England... Scattered thunderstorms will develop by early afternoon, as surface temperatures warm well into the 80s F amid 70+ F dewpoints, eroding MLCINH and boosting MLCAPE to 2000-3000 J/kg. Poor mid-level lapse rates will result in the aforementioned buoyancy being constrained to tall/thin profiles, amid 15-25 kts of effective bulk shear. The stronger storms should be multicellular, capable of mainly damaging gusts. ...Mid-MS Valley into the southern Plains... Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon given the abundance of low-level moisture and minimal convective inhibition. Storm development is particularly likely along leftover boundaries from preceding storms on Day 1. Surface temperatures approaching 90 F, with dewpoints exceeding 70 F, will contribute to over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE given 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates. As the mid-level trough moves away toward the OH Valley, mid-level flow will shift to northwesterly, above southerly low-level winds, contributing to 25 kts of effective bulk shear. Multiple merging multicells may form one or more southward-moving MCSs capable of producing a few strong to severe gusts. ...Central to Southern High Plains... Weak upslope flow of 60 F surface dewpoints, from the southeast, beneath northwesterly flow and 8-9 C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates, will yield 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE amid straight hodographs and 35 kts of effective bulk shear. By afternoon peak heating, isolated supercell will move off of the higher terrain, accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THE CAROLINAS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and from the Carolinas into the Northeast tomorrow (Tuesday). ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will persist across the Southwest as mid-level troughs impinge on the OH Valleys and the West Coast tomorrow (Tuesday). Weak surface troughs will be positioned over the Northeast and MS Valley into the southern Plains by afternoon, promoting lift of a moist low-level airmass. Enough buoyancy will be in place, amid modest vertical wind shear, to promote the development of organized thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to potentially severe. ...Carolinas into southern New England... Scattered thunderstorms will develop by early afternoon, as surface temperatures warm well into the 80s F amid 70+ F dewpoints, eroding MLCINH and boosting MLCAPE to 2000-3000 J/kg. Poor mid-level lapse rates will result in the aforementioned buoyancy being constrained to tall/thin profiles, amid 15-25 kts of effective bulk shear. The stronger storms should be multicellular, capable of mainly damaging gusts. ...Mid-MS Valley into the southern Plains... Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon given the abundance of low-level moisture and minimal convective inhibition. Storm development is particularly likely along leftover boundaries from preceding storms on Day 1. Surface temperatures approaching 90 F, with dewpoints exceeding 70 F, will contribute to over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE given 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates. As the mid-level trough moves away toward the OH Valley, mid-level flow will shift to northwesterly, above southerly low-level winds, contributing to 25 kts of effective bulk shear. Multiple merging multicells may form one or more southward-moving MCSs capable of producing a few strong to severe gusts. ...Central to Southern High Plains... Weak upslope flow of 60 F surface dewpoints, from the southeast, beneath northwesterly flow and 8-9 C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates, will yield 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE amid straight hodographs and 35 kts of effective bulk shear. By afternoon peak heating, isolated supercell will move off of the higher terrain, accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THE CAROLINAS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and from the Carolinas into the Northeast tomorrow (Tuesday). ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will persist across the Southwest as mid-level troughs impinge on the OH Valleys and the West Coast tomorrow (Tuesday). Weak surface troughs will be positioned over the Northeast and MS Valley into the southern Plains by afternoon, promoting lift of a moist low-level airmass. Enough buoyancy will be in place, amid modest vertical wind shear, to promote the development of organized thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to potentially severe. ...Carolinas into southern New England... Scattered thunderstorms will develop by early afternoon, as surface temperatures warm well into the 80s F amid 70+ F dewpoints, eroding MLCINH and boosting MLCAPE to 2000-3000 J/kg. Poor mid-level lapse rates will result in the aforementioned buoyancy being constrained to tall/thin profiles, amid 15-25 kts of effective bulk shear. The stronger storms should be multicellular, capable of mainly damaging gusts. ...Mid-MS Valley into the southern Plains... Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon given the abundance of low-level moisture and minimal convective inhibition. Storm development is particularly likely along leftover boundaries from preceding storms on Day 1. Surface temperatures approaching 90 F, with dewpoints exceeding 70 F, will contribute to over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE given 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates. As the mid-level trough moves away toward the OH Valley, mid-level flow will shift to northwesterly, above southerly low-level winds, contributing to 25 kts of effective bulk shear. Multiple merging multicells may form one or more southward-moving MCSs capable of producing a few strong to severe gusts. ...Central to Southern High Plains... Weak upslope flow of 60 F surface dewpoints, from the southeast, beneath northwesterly flow and 8-9 C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates, will yield 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE amid straight hodographs and 35 kts of effective bulk shear. By afternoon peak heating, isolated supercell will move off of the higher terrain, accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THE CAROLINAS INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and from the Carolinas into the Northeast tomorrow (Tuesday). ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will persist across the Southwest as mid-level troughs impinge on the OH Valleys and the West Coast tomorrow (Tuesday). Weak surface troughs will be positioned over the Northeast and MS Valley into the southern Plains by afternoon, promoting lift of a moist low-level airmass. Enough buoyancy will be in place, amid modest vertical wind shear, to promote the development of organized thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to potentially severe. ...Carolinas into southern New England... Scattered thunderstorms will develop by early afternoon, as surface temperatures warm well into the 80s F amid 70+ F dewpoints, eroding MLCINH and boosting MLCAPE to 2000-3000 J/kg. Poor mid-level lapse rates will result in the aforementioned buoyancy being constrained to tall/thin profiles, amid 15-25 kts of effective bulk shear. The stronger storms should be multicellular, capable of mainly damaging gusts. ...Mid-MS Valley into the southern Plains... Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon given the abundance of low-level moisture and minimal convective inhibition. Storm development is particularly likely along leftover boundaries from preceding storms on Day 1. Surface temperatures approaching 90 F, with dewpoints exceeding 70 F, will contribute to over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE given 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates. As the mid-level trough moves away toward the OH Valley, mid-level flow will shift to northwesterly, above southerly low-level winds, contributing to 25 kts of effective bulk shear. Multiple merging multicells may form one or more southward-moving MCSs capable of producing a few strong to severe gusts. ...Central to Southern High Plains... Weak upslope flow of 60 F surface dewpoints, from the southeast, beneath northwesterly flow and 8-9 C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates, will yield 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE amid straight hodographs and 35 kts of effective bulk shear. By afternoon peak heating, isolated supercell will move off of the higher terrain, accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail threat. ..Squitieri.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central into northern Plains. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats. Isolated damaging winds are also possible across parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Upper Ohio River Valley, and the Northeast. ...Central High Plains into the northern Plains... A low-amplitude midlevel trough and related belt of 40-50-kt midlevel westerlies will track eastward across the northern Plains during the day. At the same time, a cold front extending southward from the northern Plains into the central High Plains will move eastward during the afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected at the intersection of the cold front and a lee surface trough over the central High Plains during the afternoon -- aided by peripheral large-scale ascent accompanying the midlevel trough. Ahead of the evolving storms, a corridor of steep midlevel lapse rates/strong surface-based buoyancy and 40-50 kt of effective shear will promote supercells and organized clusters. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible with the initial storms. Current indications are that this activity will organize into one or more organized clusters, capable of producing swaths of severe wind (some 75+ mph). Given steep deep-layer lapse rates, lingering surface boundaries, and sufficient hodograph curvature, a couple tornadoes will also be possible. Farther north, stronger forcing for ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will support scattered thunderstorm development along the front from the Dakotas into the Upper MS Valley during the afternoon. Around 40 kt of front-orthogonal deep-layer shear will favor a mix of organized clusters and supercells, capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts. With time, these storms may grow upscale into an east-southeastward-moving MCS, with an increasing severe-wind risk. ...Upper OH River Valley, Lower Great Lakes, and the Northeast... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of a slow-moving cold front extending from the Northeast into the Lower Great Lakes/Upper OH River Valley during the afternoon. Around 30 kt of effective shear (stronger over New England) amid a diurnally destabilizing boundary layer will allow for loosely organized multicell clusters capable of producing wind damage. ..Weinman/Guyer.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central into northern Plains. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats. Isolated damaging winds are also possible across parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Upper Ohio River Valley, and the Northeast. ...Central High Plains into the northern Plains... A low-amplitude midlevel trough and related belt of 40-50-kt midlevel westerlies will track eastward across the northern Plains during the day. At the same time, a cold front extending southward from the northern Plains into the central High Plains will move eastward during the afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected at the intersection of the cold front and a lee surface trough over the central High Plains during the afternoon -- aided by peripheral large-scale ascent accompanying the midlevel trough. Ahead of the evolving storms, a corridor of steep midlevel lapse rates/strong surface-based buoyancy and 40-50 kt of effective shear will promote supercells and organized clusters. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible with the initial storms. Current indications are that this activity will organize into one or more organized clusters, capable of producing swaths of severe wind (some 75+ mph). Given steep deep-layer lapse rates, lingering surface boundaries, and sufficient hodograph curvature, a couple tornadoes will also be possible. Farther north, stronger forcing for ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will support scattered thunderstorm development along the front from the Dakotas into the Upper MS Valley during the afternoon. Around 40 kt of front-orthogonal deep-layer shear will favor a mix of organized clusters and supercells, capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts. With time, these storms may grow upscale into an east-southeastward-moving MCS, with an increasing severe-wind risk. ...Upper OH River Valley, Lower Great Lakes, and the Northeast... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of a slow-moving cold front extending from the Northeast into the Lower Great Lakes/Upper OH River Valley during the afternoon. Around 30 kt of effective shear (stronger over New England) amid a diurnally destabilizing boundary layer will allow for loosely organized multicell clusters capable of producing wind damage. ..Weinman/Guyer.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central into northern Plains. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats. Isolated damaging winds are also possible across parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Upper Ohio River Valley, and the Northeast. ...Central High Plains into the northern Plains... A low-amplitude midlevel trough and related belt of 40-50-kt midlevel westerlies will track eastward across the northern Plains during the day. At the same time, a cold front extending southward from the northern Plains into the central High Plains will move eastward during the afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected at the intersection of the cold front and a lee surface trough over the central High Plains during the afternoon -- aided by peripheral large-scale ascent accompanying the midlevel trough. Ahead of the evolving storms, a corridor of steep midlevel lapse rates/strong surface-based buoyancy and 40-50 kt of effective shear will promote supercells and organized clusters. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible with the initial storms. Current indications are that this activity will organize into one or more organized clusters, capable of producing swaths of severe wind (some 75+ mph). Given steep deep-layer lapse rates, lingering surface boundaries, and sufficient hodograph curvature, a couple tornadoes will also be possible. Farther north, stronger forcing for ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will support scattered thunderstorm development along the front from the Dakotas into the Upper MS Valley during the afternoon. Around 40 kt of front-orthogonal deep-layer shear will favor a mix of organized clusters and supercells, capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts. With time, these storms may grow upscale into an east-southeastward-moving MCS, with an increasing severe-wind risk. ...Upper OH River Valley, Lower Great Lakes, and the Northeast... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of a slow-moving cold front extending from the Northeast into the Lower Great Lakes/Upper OH River Valley during the afternoon. Around 30 kt of effective shear (stronger over New England) amid a diurnally destabilizing boundary layer will allow for loosely organized multicell clusters capable of producing wind damage. ..Weinman/Guyer.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central into northern Plains. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats. Isolated damaging winds are also possible across parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Upper Ohio River Valley, and the Northeast. ...Central High Plains into the northern Plains... A low-amplitude midlevel trough and related belt of 40-50-kt midlevel westerlies will track eastward across the northern Plains during the day. At the same time, a cold front extending southward from the northern Plains into the central High Plains will move eastward during the afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected at the intersection of the cold front and a lee surface trough over the central High Plains during the afternoon -- aided by peripheral large-scale ascent accompanying the midlevel trough. Ahead of the evolving storms, a corridor of steep midlevel lapse rates/strong surface-based buoyancy and 40-50 kt of effective shear will promote supercells and organized clusters. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible with the initial storms. Current indications are that this activity will organize into one or more organized clusters, capable of producing swaths of severe wind (some 75+ mph). Given steep deep-layer lapse rates, lingering surface boundaries, and sufficient hodograph curvature, a couple tornadoes will also be possible. Farther north, stronger forcing for ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will support scattered thunderstorm development along the front from the Dakotas into the Upper MS Valley during the afternoon. Around 40 kt of front-orthogonal deep-layer shear will favor a mix of organized clusters and supercells, capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts. With time, these storms may grow upscale into an east-southeastward-moving MCS, with an increasing severe-wind risk. ...Upper OH River Valley, Lower Great Lakes, and the Northeast... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of a slow-moving cold front extending from the Northeast into the Lower Great Lakes/Upper OH River Valley during the afternoon. Around 30 kt of effective shear (stronger over New England) amid a diurnally destabilizing boundary layer will allow for loosely organized multicell clusters capable of producing wind damage. ..Weinman/Guyer.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central into northern Plains. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats. Isolated damaging winds are also possible across parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Upper Ohio River Valley, and the Northeast. ...Central High Plains into the northern Plains... A low-amplitude midlevel trough and related belt of 40-50-kt midlevel westerlies will track eastward across the northern Plains during the day. At the same time, a cold front extending southward from the northern Plains into the central High Plains will move eastward during the afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected at the intersection of the cold front and a lee surface trough over the central High Plains during the afternoon -- aided by peripheral large-scale ascent accompanying the midlevel trough. Ahead of the evolving storms, a corridor of steep midlevel lapse rates/strong surface-based buoyancy and 40-50 kt of effective shear will promote supercells and organized clusters. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible with the initial storms. Current indications are that this activity will organize into one or more organized clusters, capable of producing swaths of severe wind (some 75+ mph). Given steep deep-layer lapse rates, lingering surface boundaries, and sufficient hodograph curvature, a couple tornadoes will also be possible. Farther north, stronger forcing for ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will support scattered thunderstorm development along the front from the Dakotas into the Upper MS Valley during the afternoon. Around 40 kt of front-orthogonal deep-layer shear will favor a mix of organized clusters and supercells, capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts. With time, these storms may grow upscale into an east-southeastward-moving MCS, with an increasing severe-wind risk. ...Upper OH River Valley, Lower Great Lakes, and the Northeast... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of a slow-moving cold front extending from the Northeast into the Lower Great Lakes/Upper OH River Valley during the afternoon. Around 30 kt of effective shear (stronger over New England) amid a diurnally destabilizing boundary layer will allow for loosely organized multicell clusters capable of producing wind damage. ..Weinman/Guyer.. 07/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central into northern Plains. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats. Isolated damaging winds are also possible across parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Upper Ohio River Valley, and the Northeast. ...Central High Plains into the northern Plains... A low-amplitude midlevel trough and related belt of 40-50-kt midlevel westerlies will track eastward across the northern Plains during the day. At the same time, a cold front extending southward from the northern Plains into the central High Plains will move eastward during the afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected at the intersection of the cold front and a lee surface trough over the central High Plains during the afternoon -- aided by peripheral large-scale ascent accompanying the midlevel trough. Ahead of the evolving storms, a corridor of steep midlevel lapse rates/strong surface-based buoyancy and 40-50 kt of effective shear will promote supercells and organized clusters. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible with the initial storms. Current indications are that this activity will organize into one or more organized clusters, capable of producing swaths of severe wind (some 75+ mph). Given steep deep-layer lapse rates, lingering surface boundaries, and sufficient hodograph curvature, a couple tornadoes will also be possible. Farther north, stronger forcing for ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will support scattered thunderstorm development along the front from the Dakotas into the Upper MS Valley during the afternoon. Around 40 kt of front-orthogonal deep-layer shear will favor a mix of organized clusters and supercells, capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts. With time, these storms may grow upscale into an east-southeastward-moving MCS, with an increasing severe-wind risk. ...Upper OH River Valley, Lower Great Lakes, and the Northeast... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of a slow-moving cold front extending from the Northeast into the Lower Great Lakes/Upper OH River Valley during the afternoon. Around 30 kt of effective shear (stronger over New England) amid a diurnally destabilizing boundary layer will allow for loosely organized multicell clusters capable of producing wind damage. ..Weinman/Guyer.. 07/07/2025 Read more