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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...20z Update... No changes. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely over parts of southern NM and far west TX. See the prior discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 05/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the southern Rockies tomorrow (Wednesday), supporting surface lee troughing and associated downslope flow across the southern High Plains. 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will overlap with 10-20 percent RH across southern New Mexico and Far West Texas for at least a few hours during the afternoon, necessitating the introduction of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...20z Update... No changes. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely over parts of southern NM and far west TX. See the prior discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 05/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the southern Rockies tomorrow (Wednesday), supporting surface lee troughing and associated downslope flow across the southern High Plains. 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will overlap with 10-20 percent RH across southern New Mexico and Far West Texas for at least a few hours during the afternoon, necessitating the introduction of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...20z Update... No changes. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely over parts of southern NM and far west TX. See the prior discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 05/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the southern Rockies tomorrow (Wednesday), supporting surface lee troughing and associated downslope flow across the southern High Plains. 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will overlap with 10-20 percent RH across southern New Mexico and Far West Texas for at least a few hours during the afternoon, necessitating the introduction of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...20z Update... No changes. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely over parts of southern NM and far west TX. See the prior discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 05/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the southern Rockies tomorrow (Wednesday), supporting surface lee troughing and associated downslope flow across the southern High Plains. 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will overlap with 10-20 percent RH across southern New Mexico and Far West Texas for at least a few hours during the afternoon, necessitating the introduction of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...20z Update... No changes. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely over parts of southern NM and far west TX. See the prior discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 05/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the southern Rockies tomorrow (Wednesday), supporting surface lee troughing and associated downslope flow across the southern High Plains. 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will overlap with 10-20 percent RH across southern New Mexico and Far West Texas for at least a few hours during the afternoon, necessitating the introduction of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...20z Update... No changes. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely over parts of southern NM and far west TX. See the prior discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 05/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the southern Rockies tomorrow (Wednesday), supporting surface lee troughing and associated downslope flow across the southern High Plains. 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will overlap with 10-20 percent RH across southern New Mexico and Far West Texas for at least a few hours during the afternoon, necessitating the introduction of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...20z Update... No changes. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely over parts of southern NM and far west TX. See the prior discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 05/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the southern Rockies tomorrow (Wednesday), supporting surface lee troughing and associated downslope flow across the southern High Plains. 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will overlap with 10-20 percent RH across southern New Mexico and Far West Texas for at least a few hours during the afternoon, necessitating the introduction of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...20z Update... No changes. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely over parts of southern NM and far west TX. See the prior discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 05/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the southern Rockies tomorrow (Wednesday), supporting surface lee troughing and associated downslope flow across the southern High Plains. 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will overlap with 10-20 percent RH across southern New Mexico and Far West Texas for at least a few hours during the afternoon, necessitating the introduction of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...20z Update... No changes. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely over parts of southern NM and far west TX. See the prior discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 05/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the southern Rockies tomorrow (Wednesday), supporting surface lee troughing and associated downslope flow across the southern High Plains. 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will overlap with 10-20 percent RH across southern New Mexico and Far West Texas for at least a few hours during the afternoon, necessitating the introduction of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...20z Update... No changes. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely over parts of southern NM and far west TX. See the prior discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 05/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the southern Rockies tomorrow (Wednesday), supporting surface lee troughing and associated downslope flow across the southern High Plains. 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will overlap with 10-20 percent RH across southern New Mexico and Far West Texas for at least a few hours during the afternoon, necessitating the introduction of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...20z Update... No changes. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely over parts of southern NM and far west TX. See the prior discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 05/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the southern Rockies tomorrow (Wednesday), supporting surface lee troughing and associated downslope flow across the southern High Plains. 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will overlap with 10-20 percent RH across southern New Mexico and Far West Texas for at least a few hours during the afternoon, necessitating the introduction of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...20z Update... No changes. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely over parts of southern NM and far west TX. See the prior discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 05/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the southern Rockies tomorrow (Wednesday), supporting surface lee troughing and associated downslope flow across the southern High Plains. 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will overlap with 10-20 percent RH across southern New Mexico and Far West Texas for at least a few hours during the afternoon, necessitating the introduction of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0242 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 242 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GLEASON..05/14/24 ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 242 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC033-059-077-079-083-089-103-142040- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLBERT FRANKLIN LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MADISON MORGAN MSC003-009-057-071-081-115-117-139-141-145-142040- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALCORN BENTON ITAWAMBA LAFAYETTE LEE PONTOTOC PRENTISS TIPPAH TISHOMINGO UNION TNC003-005-015-017-021-023-037-039-043-055-069-071-077-079-081- 083-085-099-101-103-109-111-113-117-119-125-127-135-147-149-159- 161-165-169-181-187-189-142040- TN Read more

WW 0242 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0242 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 141825
TWOEP

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 AM PDT Tue May 14 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss possible
development to the south of Mexico later this week.

South of the Coast of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form along a trough several
hundred miles to the south or southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
by the middle to latter portion of this week. Thereafter, some
gradual development of this system is possible as the low moves
slowly to the west-northwest, remaining south of the coast of Mexico
through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

The next Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued by 5 AM PDT
Wednesday.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Hagen

No watches are valid as of Tue May 14 17:57:01 UTC 2024.

MD 0782 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE...FAR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0782 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Areas affected...Portions of Middle Tennessee...far northern Mississippi...and northern Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 141744Z - 141845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop over the next 1-3 hours across portions of Middle Tennessee and northern Alabama. A few severe thunderstorms are expected with a localized threat of damaging winds near 60 mph and occasional large hail 1 to 1.5 inches in diameter. DISCUSSION...A broken line of scattered thunderstorms has developed along a surface trough/weak cold front this afternoon from far northwest MS through portions of western TN. Recent visible satellite imagery indicates stratus is beginning to mix out downstream of an approaching mid to upper level vorticity maximum, currently located over northwest MS. As this feature continues to progress eastward, additional thunderstorms are expected to develop. Dewpoints in the mid 60s and temperatures in the low to mid 70s under marginal mid level lapse rates are currently yielding around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE under effective deep layer shear near 30 kt. A slight improvement to the thermodynamic environment is expected through this afternoon as destabilization continues, steeper lapse rates slowly advect northeastward, and cooler temperatures aloft move overhead. This may be especially true within pockets of clearing. Multicells with clusters, and perhaps some bowing segments, will be possible in addition to a few supercells more likely later in the afternoon. Localized damaging wind gusts near 60 mph and large hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter may accompany the more robust updrafts. Conditions will be monitored for a possible severe thunderstorm watch. ..Barnes/Gleason/Thompson.. 05/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG... LAT...LON 34269063 34579029 34769009 35038977 35158899 35658867 36328833 36698810 36878719 36658634 36598586 36228572 35818577 35168579 34778580 34558615 34408654 34138735 34098876 34129000 34269063 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA AND THE TX PANHANDLE TO SOUTHEAST KS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday into Wednesday evening over parts of the north-central Florida Peninsula and in the southern Great Plains. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough from the OH Valley to the Deep South will move off the South Atlantic Coast by early Thursday. Attendant surface cyclone will further occlude and decay over the Central OH Valley, while secondary cyclogenesis occurs just offshore of the VA/NC coast. Farther west, a series of lower-amplitude shortwave impulses will gradually move east across parts of the Upper Midwest to Southwest states. ...FL Peninsula... At least scattered thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing across the northeast Gulf into north FL ahead of a weak surface front pushing southeastward. Ample buoyancy characterized by MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg will likely develop across central and south FL where more robust boundary-layer heating occurs south of the morning convective canopy amid a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates. Consensus of 12Z CAM guidance suggests downstream thunderstorm development will occur late morning through midday as MLCIN wanes, with the leading edge of large-scale convective outflow serving as the effective boundary focus through the day. Deep-layer shear will be strong with a belt of 50-60 kt mid-level flow south of the aforementioned shortwave trough. Although the flow regime should be largely unidirectional from the southwest, this will be sufficient for at least a few supercells. Large hail and a couple tornadoes will be the primary threats, along with isolated damaging winds. Overall threat should wane later in the afternoon as flow orientation becomes increasingly parallel to the composite outflow/front. ...Central/southern Great Plains into the Mid-MO Valley... A generally north/south-oriented cold front to the south of a weak surface cyclone over eastern SD will serve as a focus for scattered late afternoon and evening thunderstorm development over the central states. Airmass modification will be most pronounced across OK into south KS where low 60s boundary-layer dewpoints will spread north from east TX. This should yield a confined plume of moderate MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg by peak heating. Weak buoyancy will be prevalent to the north of this plume and suggests the overall severe threat in the Mid-MO Valley should remain marginal. Farther south, low-level convergence near the front and dryline, along with post-frontal upslope in the Raton Mesa vicinity, and a strengthening low-level jet from west TX towards the southeast KS/northeast OK border should all aid in scattered to eventually widespread convective development by Wednesday evening. While the combination of boundary-layer moisture and deep-layer shear will be modest by mid-May standards, it should be adequate for transient supercells and clusters capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. These threats should wane overnight. ...Carolinas... Moderate destabilization is anticipated ahead of the slow-moving shortwave trough, mainly across the coastal Plain. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon as this wave moves through. Modest deep-layer shear should promote a predominant multicell mode. The more robust storms should be strong enough to produce sporadic hail and localized damaging winds. ..Grams.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA AND THE TX PANHANDLE TO SOUTHEAST KS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday into Wednesday evening over parts of the north-central Florida Peninsula and in the southern Great Plains. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough from the OH Valley to the Deep South will move off the South Atlantic Coast by early Thursday. Attendant surface cyclone will further occlude and decay over the Central OH Valley, while secondary cyclogenesis occurs just offshore of the VA/NC coast. Farther west, a series of lower-amplitude shortwave impulses will gradually move east across parts of the Upper Midwest to Southwest states. ...FL Peninsula... At least scattered thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing across the northeast Gulf into north FL ahead of a weak surface front pushing southeastward. Ample buoyancy characterized by MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg will likely develop across central and south FL where more robust boundary-layer heating occurs south of the morning convective canopy amid a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates. Consensus of 12Z CAM guidance suggests downstream thunderstorm development will occur late morning through midday as MLCIN wanes, with the leading edge of large-scale convective outflow serving as the effective boundary focus through the day. Deep-layer shear will be strong with a belt of 50-60 kt mid-level flow south of the aforementioned shortwave trough. Although the flow regime should be largely unidirectional from the southwest, this will be sufficient for at least a few supercells. Large hail and a couple tornadoes will be the primary threats, along with isolated damaging winds. Overall threat should wane later in the afternoon as flow orientation becomes increasingly parallel to the composite outflow/front. ...Central/southern Great Plains into the Mid-MO Valley... A generally north/south-oriented cold front to the south of a weak surface cyclone over eastern SD will serve as a focus for scattered late afternoon and evening thunderstorm development over the central states. Airmass modification will be most pronounced across OK into south KS where low 60s boundary-layer dewpoints will spread north from east TX. This should yield a confined plume of moderate MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg by peak heating. Weak buoyancy will be prevalent to the north of this plume and suggests the overall severe threat in the Mid-MO Valley should remain marginal. Farther south, low-level convergence near the front and dryline, along with post-frontal upslope in the Raton Mesa vicinity, and a strengthening low-level jet from west TX towards the southeast KS/northeast OK border should all aid in scattered to eventually widespread convective development by Wednesday evening. While the combination of boundary-layer moisture and deep-layer shear will be modest by mid-May standards, it should be adequate for transient supercells and clusters capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. These threats should wane overnight. ...Carolinas... Moderate destabilization is anticipated ahead of the slow-moving shortwave trough, mainly across the coastal Plain. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon as this wave moves through. Modest deep-layer shear should promote a predominant multicell mode. The more robust storms should be strong enough to produce sporadic hail and localized damaging winds. ..Grams.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA AND THE TX PANHANDLE TO SOUTHEAST KS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday into Wednesday evening over parts of the north-central Florida Peninsula and in the southern Great Plains. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough from the OH Valley to the Deep South will move off the South Atlantic Coast by early Thursday. Attendant surface cyclone will further occlude and decay over the Central OH Valley, while secondary cyclogenesis occurs just offshore of the VA/NC coast. Farther west, a series of lower-amplitude shortwave impulses will gradually move east across parts of the Upper Midwest to Southwest states. ...FL Peninsula... At least scattered thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing across the northeast Gulf into north FL ahead of a weak surface front pushing southeastward. Ample buoyancy characterized by MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg will likely develop across central and south FL where more robust boundary-layer heating occurs south of the morning convective canopy amid a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates. Consensus of 12Z CAM guidance suggests downstream thunderstorm development will occur late morning through midday as MLCIN wanes, with the leading edge of large-scale convective outflow serving as the effective boundary focus through the day. Deep-layer shear will be strong with a belt of 50-60 kt mid-level flow south of the aforementioned shortwave trough. Although the flow regime should be largely unidirectional from the southwest, this will be sufficient for at least a few supercells. Large hail and a couple tornadoes will be the primary threats, along with isolated damaging winds. Overall threat should wane later in the afternoon as flow orientation becomes increasingly parallel to the composite outflow/front. ...Central/southern Great Plains into the Mid-MO Valley... A generally north/south-oriented cold front to the south of a weak surface cyclone over eastern SD will serve as a focus for scattered late afternoon and evening thunderstorm development over the central states. Airmass modification will be most pronounced across OK into south KS where low 60s boundary-layer dewpoints will spread north from east TX. This should yield a confined plume of moderate MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg by peak heating. Weak buoyancy will be prevalent to the north of this plume and suggests the overall severe threat in the Mid-MO Valley should remain marginal. Farther south, low-level convergence near the front and dryline, along with post-frontal upslope in the Raton Mesa vicinity, and a strengthening low-level jet from west TX towards the southeast KS/northeast OK border should all aid in scattered to eventually widespread convective development by Wednesday evening. While the combination of boundary-layer moisture and deep-layer shear will be modest by mid-May standards, it should be adequate for transient supercells and clusters capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. These threats should wane overnight. ...Carolinas... Moderate destabilization is anticipated ahead of the slow-moving shortwave trough, mainly across the coastal Plain. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon as this wave moves through. Modest deep-layer shear should promote a predominant multicell mode. The more robust storms should be strong enough to produce sporadic hail and localized damaging winds. ..Grams.. 05/14/2024 Read more