Aggregator

WW 0240 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 240 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SW CTY TO 40 NNE CTY TO 15 E VLD TO 25 NE MGR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0778 ..DEAN..05/14/24 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 240 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC029-067-141240- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DIXIE LAFAYETTE GAC027-185-141240- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROOKS LOWNDES THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0240 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 240 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SW CTY TO 40 NNE CTY TO 15 E VLD TO 25 NE MGR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0778 ..DEAN..05/14/24 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 240 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC029-067-141240- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DIXIE LAFAYETTE GAC027-185-141240- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROOKS LOWNDES THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0240 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 240 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SW CTY TO 40 NNE CTY TO 15 E VLD TO 25 NE MGR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0778 ..DEAN..05/14/24 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 240 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC029-067-141240- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DIXIE LAFAYETTE GAC027-185-141240- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROOKS LOWNDES THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 240 TORNADO FL GA CW 140645Z - 141300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 240 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 145 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern Florida Far Southern Georgia Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday morning from 145 AM until 800 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A well-organized complex of storms over the northeast Gulf of Mexico will move into the Florida Panhandle and other parts of northern Florida, and eventually far southern Georgia, through the early morning hours. Severe/tornado potential is expected to increase as the atmosphere ahead of these storms further destabilizes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west southwest of Panama City FL to 45 miles south of Valdosta GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 26035. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0241 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 241 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..05/14/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 241 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-003-007-017-019-023-031-035-041-047-053-075-083-089-107- 109-119-121-125-141140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD CITRUS CLAY COLUMBIA DUVAL FLAGLER GILCHRIST HAMILTON HERNANDO LEVY MARION NASSAU PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SUMTER SUWANNEE UNION GAC025-039-049-065-101-127-299-141140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRANTLEY CAMDEN CHARLTON CLINCH ECHOLS GLYNN WARE AMZ450-452-454-GMZ850-141140- Read more

WW 0241 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 241 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..05/14/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 241 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-003-007-017-019-023-031-035-041-047-053-075-083-089-107- 109-119-121-125-141140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD CITRUS CLAY COLUMBIA DUVAL FLAGLER GILCHRIST HAMILTON HERNANDO LEVY MARION NASSAU PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SUMTER SUWANNEE UNION GAC025-039-049-065-101-127-299-141140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRANTLEY CAMDEN CHARLTON CLINCH ECHOLS GLYNN WARE AMZ450-452-454-GMZ850-141140- Read more

MD 0777 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 240... FOR PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST GA
Mesoscale Discussion 0777 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Areas affected...Parts of the FL Panhandle into extreme southwest GA Concerning...Tornado Watch 240... Valid 140814Z - 140945Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 240 continues. SUMMARY...Some threat for damaging wind and a brief tornado will spread eastward through the early morning. DISCUSSION...Satellite and radar trends indicate that an earlier well-developed MCS over the northeast Gulf of Mexico has experienced some loss in organization and intensity, with warming cloud tops and at least a temporary loss of the earlier more well-defined bowing structure. This is likely due to the MCS moving through a region of relatively weaker instability, generally along/north of the effective surface front. However, some reintensification of this system cannot be ruled out through the early morning. Notable low-level recovery was noted between the 00Z and 06Z TLH soundings, with an increase of 2 g/kg in the lowest 100 mb mean mixing ratio. Observed temperatures and dewpoints remain in the low 70s F from the immediate coastline into eastern parts of the Panhandle, sufficient to support MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. Rather strong deep-layer shear will continue to support organized convection, and some potential for damaging wind remains evident with any embedded stronger band of convection as the MCS moves eastward through the early morning. Also, while low-level flow is relatively modest, sufficient veering in the lowest 1-2 km may support a threat for a brief tornado. ..Dean.. 05/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE... LAT...LON 30718636 30968578 31078479 30958381 30308373 29698370 29308374 29068416 28968466 29048534 29668566 29878620 30718636 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains and into the Lower MS Valley on D4/Friday. Strong mid-level flow will precede this shortwave, spreading eastward from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast. Airmass across the Lower MS Valley will likely be characterized by dewpoints in the low/mid 70s, with strong instability developing ahead of the approaching shortwave. Severe thunderstorm development is anticipated as the shortwave and associated surface low interact with this unstable and strongly sheared airmass. The timing of thunderstorm development and favored convective mode remains uncertain, but the overall environment and potential severe merits introducing a small 15% area from central LA into central/southern MS. The severe potential may extend into D5/Saturday across AL, GA, and FL Panhandle/northern FL as the shortwave trough continues eastward. However, uncertainty regarding convective evolution from D4/Friday as well as a less favorable severe environment precludes introduce any outlook areas. Shortwave ridging will likely progress through the central/southern Plains on D6/Sunday and the MS Valley on D7/Monday. Medium-range guidance has been consistently suggesting a shortwave trough will progress through the Southwest and into the central/southern Plains early next week. Several days of moisture return could precede this shortwave, with some severe potential becoming more apparent early next week. Even so, given the forecast range and variability within the guidance (particularly with timing), predictability remains low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains and into the Lower MS Valley on D4/Friday. Strong mid-level flow will precede this shortwave, spreading eastward from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast. Airmass across the Lower MS Valley will likely be characterized by dewpoints in the low/mid 70s, with strong instability developing ahead of the approaching shortwave. Severe thunderstorm development is anticipated as the shortwave and associated surface low interact with this unstable and strongly sheared airmass. The timing of thunderstorm development and favored convective mode remains uncertain, but the overall environment and potential severe merits introducing a small 15% area from central LA into central/southern MS. The severe potential may extend into D5/Saturday across AL, GA, and FL Panhandle/northern FL as the shortwave trough continues eastward. However, uncertainty regarding convective evolution from D4/Friday as well as a less favorable severe environment precludes introduce any outlook areas. Shortwave ridging will likely progress through the central/southern Plains on D6/Sunday and the MS Valley on D7/Monday. Medium-range guidance has been consistently suggesting a shortwave trough will progress through the Southwest and into the central/southern Plains early next week. Several days of moisture return could precede this shortwave, with some severe potential becoming more apparent early next week. Even so, given the forecast range and variability within the guidance (particularly with timing), predictability remains low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains and into the Lower MS Valley on D4/Friday. Strong mid-level flow will precede this shortwave, spreading eastward from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast. Airmass across the Lower MS Valley will likely be characterized by dewpoints in the low/mid 70s, with strong instability developing ahead of the approaching shortwave. Severe thunderstorm development is anticipated as the shortwave and associated surface low interact with this unstable and strongly sheared airmass. The timing of thunderstorm development and favored convective mode remains uncertain, but the overall environment and potential severe merits introducing a small 15% area from central LA into central/southern MS. The severe potential may extend into D5/Saturday across AL, GA, and FL Panhandle/northern FL as the shortwave trough continues eastward. However, uncertainty regarding convective evolution from D4/Friday as well as a less favorable severe environment precludes introduce any outlook areas. Shortwave ridging will likely progress through the central/southern Plains on D6/Sunday and the MS Valley on D7/Monday. Medium-range guidance has been consistently suggesting a shortwave trough will progress through the Southwest and into the central/southern Plains early next week. Several days of moisture return could precede this shortwave, with some severe potential becoming more apparent early next week. Even so, given the forecast range and variability within the guidance (particularly with timing), predictability remains low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains and into the Lower MS Valley on D4/Friday. Strong mid-level flow will precede this shortwave, spreading eastward from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast. Airmass across the Lower MS Valley will likely be characterized by dewpoints in the low/mid 70s, with strong instability developing ahead of the approaching shortwave. Severe thunderstorm development is anticipated as the shortwave and associated surface low interact with this unstable and strongly sheared airmass. The timing of thunderstorm development and favored convective mode remains uncertain, but the overall environment and potential severe merits introducing a small 15% area from central LA into central/southern MS. The severe potential may extend into D5/Saturday across AL, GA, and FL Panhandle/northern FL as the shortwave trough continues eastward. However, uncertainty regarding convective evolution from D4/Friday as well as a less favorable severe environment precludes introduce any outlook areas. Shortwave ridging will likely progress through the central/southern Plains on D6/Sunday and the MS Valley on D7/Monday. Medium-range guidance has been consistently suggesting a shortwave trough will progress through the Southwest and into the central/southern Plains early next week. Several days of moisture return could precede this shortwave, with some severe potential becoming more apparent early next week. Even so, given the forecast range and variability within the guidance (particularly with timing), predictability remains low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains and into the Lower MS Valley on D4/Friday. Strong mid-level flow will precede this shortwave, spreading eastward from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast. Airmass across the Lower MS Valley will likely be characterized by dewpoints in the low/mid 70s, with strong instability developing ahead of the approaching shortwave. Severe thunderstorm development is anticipated as the shortwave and associated surface low interact with this unstable and strongly sheared airmass. The timing of thunderstorm development and favored convective mode remains uncertain, but the overall environment and potential severe merits introducing a small 15% area from central LA into central/southern MS. The severe potential may extend into D5/Saturday across AL, GA, and FL Panhandle/northern FL as the shortwave trough continues eastward. However, uncertainty regarding convective evolution from D4/Friday as well as a less favorable severe environment precludes introduce any outlook areas. Shortwave ridging will likely progress through the central/southern Plains on D6/Sunday and the MS Valley on D7/Monday. Medium-range guidance has been consistently suggesting a shortwave trough will progress through the Southwest and into the central/southern Plains early next week. Several days of moisture return could precede this shortwave, with some severe potential becoming more apparent early next week. Even so, given the forecast range and variability within the guidance (particularly with timing), predictability remains low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains and into the Lower MS Valley on D4/Friday. Strong mid-level flow will precede this shortwave, spreading eastward from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast. Airmass across the Lower MS Valley will likely be characterized by dewpoints in the low/mid 70s, with strong instability developing ahead of the approaching shortwave. Severe thunderstorm development is anticipated as the shortwave and associated surface low interact with this unstable and strongly sheared airmass. The timing of thunderstorm development and favored convective mode remains uncertain, but the overall environment and potential severe merits introducing a small 15% area from central LA into central/southern MS. The severe potential may extend into D5/Saturday across AL, GA, and FL Panhandle/northern FL as the shortwave trough continues eastward. However, uncertainty regarding convective evolution from D4/Friday as well as a less favorable severe environment precludes introduce any outlook areas. Shortwave ridging will likely progress through the central/southern Plains on D6/Sunday and the MS Valley on D7/Monday. Medium-range guidance has been consistently suggesting a shortwave trough will progress through the Southwest and into the central/southern Plains early next week. Several days of moisture return could precede this shortwave, with some severe potential becoming more apparent early next week. Even so, given the forecast range and variability within the guidance (particularly with timing), predictability remains low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains and into the Lower MS Valley on D4/Friday. Strong mid-level flow will precede this shortwave, spreading eastward from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast. Airmass across the Lower MS Valley will likely be characterized by dewpoints in the low/mid 70s, with strong instability developing ahead of the approaching shortwave. Severe thunderstorm development is anticipated as the shortwave and associated surface low interact with this unstable and strongly sheared airmass. The timing of thunderstorm development and favored convective mode remains uncertain, but the overall environment and potential severe merits introducing a small 15% area from central LA into central/southern MS. The severe potential may extend into D5/Saturday across AL, GA, and FL Panhandle/northern FL as the shortwave trough continues eastward. However, uncertainty regarding convective evolution from D4/Friday as well as a less favorable severe environment precludes introduce any outlook areas. Shortwave ridging will likely progress through the central/southern Plains on D6/Sunday and the MS Valley on D7/Monday. Medium-range guidance has been consistently suggesting a shortwave trough will progress through the Southwest and into the central/southern Plains early next week. Several days of moisture return could precede this shortwave, with some severe potential becoming more apparent early next week. Even so, given the forecast range and variability within the guidance (particularly with timing), predictability remains low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains and into the Lower MS Valley on D4/Friday. Strong mid-level flow will precede this shortwave, spreading eastward from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast. Airmass across the Lower MS Valley will likely be characterized by dewpoints in the low/mid 70s, with strong instability developing ahead of the approaching shortwave. Severe thunderstorm development is anticipated as the shortwave and associated surface low interact with this unstable and strongly sheared airmass. The timing of thunderstorm development and favored convective mode remains uncertain, but the overall environment and potential severe merits introducing a small 15% area from central LA into central/southern MS. The severe potential may extend into D5/Saturday across AL, GA, and FL Panhandle/northern FL as the shortwave trough continues eastward. However, uncertainty regarding convective evolution from D4/Friday as well as a less favorable severe environment precludes introduce any outlook areas. Shortwave ridging will likely progress through the central/southern Plains on D6/Sunday and the MS Valley on D7/Monday. Medium-range guidance has been consistently suggesting a shortwave trough will progress through the Southwest and into the central/southern Plains early next week. Several days of moisture return could precede this shortwave, with some severe potential becoming more apparent early next week. Even so, given the forecast range and variability within the guidance (particularly with timing), predictability remains low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains and into the Lower MS Valley on D4/Friday. Strong mid-level flow will precede this shortwave, spreading eastward from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast. Airmass across the Lower MS Valley will likely be characterized by dewpoints in the low/mid 70s, with strong instability developing ahead of the approaching shortwave. Severe thunderstorm development is anticipated as the shortwave and associated surface low interact with this unstable and strongly sheared airmass. The timing of thunderstorm development and favored convective mode remains uncertain, but the overall environment and potential severe merits introducing a small 15% area from central LA into central/southern MS. The severe potential may extend into D5/Saturday across AL, GA, and FL Panhandle/northern FL as the shortwave trough continues eastward. However, uncertainty regarding convective evolution from D4/Friday as well as a less favorable severe environment precludes introduce any outlook areas. Shortwave ridging will likely progress through the central/southern Plains on D6/Sunday and the MS Valley on D7/Monday. Medium-range guidance has been consistently suggesting a shortwave trough will progress through the Southwest and into the central/southern Plains early next week. Several days of moisture return could precede this shortwave, with some severe potential becoming more apparent early next week. Even so, given the forecast range and variability within the guidance (particularly with timing), predictability remains low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains and into the Lower MS Valley on D4/Friday. Strong mid-level flow will precede this shortwave, spreading eastward from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast. Airmass across the Lower MS Valley will likely be characterized by dewpoints in the low/mid 70s, with strong instability developing ahead of the approaching shortwave. Severe thunderstorm development is anticipated as the shortwave and associated surface low interact with this unstable and strongly sheared airmass. The timing of thunderstorm development and favored convective mode remains uncertain, but the overall environment and potential severe merits introducing a small 15% area from central LA into central/southern MS. The severe potential may extend into D5/Saturday across AL, GA, and FL Panhandle/northern FL as the shortwave trough continues eastward. However, uncertainty regarding convective evolution from D4/Friday as well as a less favorable severe environment precludes introduce any outlook areas. Shortwave ridging will likely progress through the central/southern Plains on D6/Sunday and the MS Valley on D7/Monday. Medium-range guidance has been consistently suggesting a shortwave trough will progress through the Southwest and into the central/southern Plains early next week. Several days of moisture return could precede this shortwave, with some severe potential becoming more apparent early next week. Even so, given the forecast range and variability within the guidance (particularly with timing), predictability remains low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains and into the Lower MS Valley on D4/Friday. Strong mid-level flow will precede this shortwave, spreading eastward from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast. Airmass across the Lower MS Valley will likely be characterized by dewpoints in the low/mid 70s, with strong instability developing ahead of the approaching shortwave. Severe thunderstorm development is anticipated as the shortwave and associated surface low interact with this unstable and strongly sheared airmass. The timing of thunderstorm development and favored convective mode remains uncertain, but the overall environment and potential severe merits introducing a small 15% area from central LA into central/southern MS. The severe potential may extend into D5/Saturday across AL, GA, and FL Panhandle/northern FL as the shortwave trough continues eastward. However, uncertainty regarding convective evolution from D4/Friday as well as a less favorable severe environment precludes introduce any outlook areas. Shortwave ridging will likely progress through the central/southern Plains on D6/Sunday and the MS Valley on D7/Monday. Medium-range guidance has been consistently suggesting a shortwave trough will progress through the Southwest and into the central/southern Plains early next week. Several days of moisture return could precede this shortwave, with some severe potential becoming more apparent early next week. Even so, given the forecast range and variability within the guidance (particularly with timing), predictability remains low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains and into the Lower MS Valley on D4/Friday. Strong mid-level flow will precede this shortwave, spreading eastward from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast. Airmass across the Lower MS Valley will likely be characterized by dewpoints in the low/mid 70s, with strong instability developing ahead of the approaching shortwave. Severe thunderstorm development is anticipated as the shortwave and associated surface low interact with this unstable and strongly sheared airmass. The timing of thunderstorm development and favored convective mode remains uncertain, but the overall environment and potential severe merits introducing a small 15% area from central LA into central/southern MS. The severe potential may extend into D5/Saturday across AL, GA, and FL Panhandle/northern FL as the shortwave trough continues eastward. However, uncertainty regarding convective evolution from D4/Friday as well as a less favorable severe environment precludes introduce any outlook areas. Shortwave ridging will likely progress through the central/southern Plains on D6/Sunday and the MS Valley on D7/Monday. Medium-range guidance has been consistently suggesting a shortwave trough will progress through the Southwest and into the central/southern Plains early next week. Several days of moisture return could precede this shortwave, with some severe potential becoming more apparent early next week. Even so, given the forecast range and variability within the guidance (particularly with timing), predictability remains low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains and into the Lower MS Valley on D4/Friday. Strong mid-level flow will precede this shortwave, spreading eastward from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast. Airmass across the Lower MS Valley will likely be characterized by dewpoints in the low/mid 70s, with strong instability developing ahead of the approaching shortwave. Severe thunderstorm development is anticipated as the shortwave and associated surface low interact with this unstable and strongly sheared airmass. The timing of thunderstorm development and favored convective mode remains uncertain, but the overall environment and potential severe merits introducing a small 15% area from central LA into central/southern MS. The severe potential may extend into D5/Saturday across AL, GA, and FL Panhandle/northern FL as the shortwave trough continues eastward. However, uncertainty regarding convective evolution from D4/Friday as well as a less favorable severe environment precludes introduce any outlook areas. Shortwave ridging will likely progress through the central/southern Plains on D6/Sunday and the MS Valley on D7/Monday. Medium-range guidance has been consistently suggesting a shortwave trough will progress through the Southwest and into the central/southern Plains early next week. Several days of moisture return could precede this shortwave, with some severe potential becoming more apparent early next week. Even so, given the forecast range and variability within the guidance (particularly with timing), predictability remains low. Read more