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MD 0769 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 0769 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Areas affected...Portions of the central and northern Florida Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 132004Z - 132130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop through this afternoon along a seabreeze and stationary boundary. Strong to severe wind gusts near 50 to 60 mph and perhaps a landspout are possible. DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery shows deepening cumulus developing along a seabreeze and stationary boundary. The latter is further north and draped west to east between Alachua and Columbia Counties. A few thunderstorms have already developed near these features as well, and additional diurnal development is expected. Although deep layer effective shear suggests some updraft organization may occur, poor mid level lapse rates will keep any marginally severe hail threat isolated. On the other hand, steep low level lapse rates/stretching potential and somewhat greater low level shear over the northern Florida peninsula closer to the stationary boundary may be sufficient for a brief landspout to occur with robust updrafts that manage to develop. Localized strong to severe wind gusts will also be possible with wet microbursts and merging cells. Given the isolated threat of the severe potential, a weather watch is not expected at this time. ..Barnes/Gleason.. 05/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 28648254 28878255 29288283 29798329 30098321 30248305 30238264 29888199 29728172 29368148 29078117 27518057 27408116 27238126 26828124 26788160 27208183 28008209 28648254 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Mid-latitude blocking is forecast to remain in place over the West Coast through the first half of the extend forecast period. To the east, an active subtropical jet should support widespread rain over the central and eastern US. Ridging will slowly breakdown beyond midweek into next weekend before westerly/southwesterly flow aloft increases into the new week. With the fairly stagnant pattern in place, fire-weather concerns appear limited outside of the Desert Southwest where the drier air mass remains. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... With upstream blocking in place, flow aloft will be somewhat limited through the first part of the extended forecast period. Slightly enhanced southern stream flow associated with a weak sub-tropical shortwave trough will pass over the Southwest and southern High Plains D3/Wed-D4/Thu. Model guidance remains varied on the strength of low-level winds in response to the weak shortwave passage. Confidence remains too low for critical probabilities, but several days of warm temperatures may support drying fuels and some risk for locally elevated fire-weather concerns. A more substantial fire-weather risk appears likely to develop D7/Sun through D8/Mon as the ridge breaks down and southwesterly flow aloft begins to move onshore. 50+ kt 500 mb flow will overspread the Desert Southwest and southern Rockies at the end of the period along with a deepening lee cyclone. Gusty surface winds are likely to overlap with RH values below. The exact areal coverage and duration of fire-weather conditions remains unclear, but critical probabilities will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Central and Southern FL... Across the FL Peninsula, lower rainfall accumulations may exacerbate short-term drought D4/Thur-D5/Fri. While flow aloft will generally be limited, a cold front may support a slight increase in surface winds late this week into the weekend. Confidence is not overly high, but localized dry and breezy conditions are possible each afternoon within very dry fuels across the southern and central FL Peninsula. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Mid-latitude blocking is forecast to remain in place over the West Coast through the first half of the extend forecast period. To the east, an active subtropical jet should support widespread rain over the central and eastern US. Ridging will slowly breakdown beyond midweek into next weekend before westerly/southwesterly flow aloft increases into the new week. With the fairly stagnant pattern in place, fire-weather concerns appear limited outside of the Desert Southwest where the drier air mass remains. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... With upstream blocking in place, flow aloft will be somewhat limited through the first part of the extended forecast period. Slightly enhanced southern stream flow associated with a weak sub-tropical shortwave trough will pass over the Southwest and southern High Plains D3/Wed-D4/Thu. Model guidance remains varied on the strength of low-level winds in response to the weak shortwave passage. Confidence remains too low for critical probabilities, but several days of warm temperatures may support drying fuels and some risk for locally elevated fire-weather concerns. A more substantial fire-weather risk appears likely to develop D7/Sun through D8/Mon as the ridge breaks down and southwesterly flow aloft begins to move onshore. 50+ kt 500 mb flow will overspread the Desert Southwest and southern Rockies at the end of the period along with a deepening lee cyclone. Gusty surface winds are likely to overlap with RH values below. The exact areal coverage and duration of fire-weather conditions remains unclear, but critical probabilities will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Central and Southern FL... Across the FL Peninsula, lower rainfall accumulations may exacerbate short-term drought D4/Thur-D5/Fri. While flow aloft will generally be limited, a cold front may support a slight increase in surface winds late this week into the weekend. Confidence is not overly high, but localized dry and breezy conditions are possible each afternoon within very dry fuels across the southern and central FL Peninsula. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Mid-latitude blocking is forecast to remain in place over the West Coast through the first half of the extend forecast period. To the east, an active subtropical jet should support widespread rain over the central and eastern US. Ridging will slowly breakdown beyond midweek into next weekend before westerly/southwesterly flow aloft increases into the new week. With the fairly stagnant pattern in place, fire-weather concerns appear limited outside of the Desert Southwest where the drier air mass remains. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... With upstream blocking in place, flow aloft will be somewhat limited through the first part of the extended forecast period. Slightly enhanced southern stream flow associated with a weak sub-tropical shortwave trough will pass over the Southwest and southern High Plains D3/Wed-D4/Thu. Model guidance remains varied on the strength of low-level winds in response to the weak shortwave passage. Confidence remains too low for critical probabilities, but several days of warm temperatures may support drying fuels and some risk for locally elevated fire-weather concerns. A more substantial fire-weather risk appears likely to develop D7/Sun through D8/Mon as the ridge breaks down and southwesterly flow aloft begins to move onshore. 50+ kt 500 mb flow will overspread the Desert Southwest and southern Rockies at the end of the period along with a deepening lee cyclone. Gusty surface winds are likely to overlap with RH values below. The exact areal coverage and duration of fire-weather conditions remains unclear, but critical probabilities will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Central and Southern FL... Across the FL Peninsula, lower rainfall accumulations may exacerbate short-term drought D4/Thur-D5/Fri. While flow aloft will generally be limited, a cold front may support a slight increase in surface winds late this week into the weekend. Confidence is not overly high, but localized dry and breezy conditions are possible each afternoon within very dry fuels across the southern and central FL Peninsula. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Mid-latitude blocking is forecast to remain in place over the West Coast through the first half of the extend forecast period. To the east, an active subtropical jet should support widespread rain over the central and eastern US. Ridging will slowly breakdown beyond midweek into next weekend before westerly/southwesterly flow aloft increases into the new week. With the fairly stagnant pattern in place, fire-weather concerns appear limited outside of the Desert Southwest where the drier air mass remains. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... With upstream blocking in place, flow aloft will be somewhat limited through the first part of the extended forecast period. Slightly enhanced southern stream flow associated with a weak sub-tropical shortwave trough will pass over the Southwest and southern High Plains D3/Wed-D4/Thu. Model guidance remains varied on the strength of low-level winds in response to the weak shortwave passage. Confidence remains too low for critical probabilities, but several days of warm temperatures may support drying fuels and some risk for locally elevated fire-weather concerns. A more substantial fire-weather risk appears likely to develop D7/Sun through D8/Mon as the ridge breaks down and southwesterly flow aloft begins to move onshore. 50+ kt 500 mb flow will overspread the Desert Southwest and southern Rockies at the end of the period along with a deepening lee cyclone. Gusty surface winds are likely to overlap with RH values below. The exact areal coverage and duration of fire-weather conditions remains unclear, but critical probabilities will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Central and Southern FL... Across the FL Peninsula, lower rainfall accumulations may exacerbate short-term drought D4/Thur-D5/Fri. While flow aloft will generally be limited, a cold front may support a slight increase in surface winds late this week into the weekend. Confidence is not overly high, but localized dry and breezy conditions are possible each afternoon within very dry fuels across the southern and central FL Peninsula. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Mid-latitude blocking is forecast to remain in place over the West Coast through the first half of the extend forecast period. To the east, an active subtropical jet should support widespread rain over the central and eastern US. Ridging will slowly breakdown beyond midweek into next weekend before westerly/southwesterly flow aloft increases into the new week. With the fairly stagnant pattern in place, fire-weather concerns appear limited outside of the Desert Southwest where the drier air mass remains. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... With upstream blocking in place, flow aloft will be somewhat limited through the first part of the extended forecast period. Slightly enhanced southern stream flow associated with a weak sub-tropical shortwave trough will pass over the Southwest and southern High Plains D3/Wed-D4/Thu. Model guidance remains varied on the strength of low-level winds in response to the weak shortwave passage. Confidence remains too low for critical probabilities, but several days of warm temperatures may support drying fuels and some risk for locally elevated fire-weather concerns. A more substantial fire-weather risk appears likely to develop D7/Sun through D8/Mon as the ridge breaks down and southwesterly flow aloft begins to move onshore. 50+ kt 500 mb flow will overspread the Desert Southwest and southern Rockies at the end of the period along with a deepening lee cyclone. Gusty surface winds are likely to overlap with RH values below. The exact areal coverage and duration of fire-weather conditions remains unclear, but critical probabilities will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Central and Southern FL... Across the FL Peninsula, lower rainfall accumulations may exacerbate short-term drought D4/Thur-D5/Fri. While flow aloft will generally be limited, a cold front may support a slight increase in surface winds late this week into the weekend. Confidence is not overly high, but localized dry and breezy conditions are possible each afternoon within very dry fuels across the southern and central FL Peninsula. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Mid-latitude blocking is forecast to remain in place over the West Coast through the first half of the extend forecast period. To the east, an active subtropical jet should support widespread rain over the central and eastern US. Ridging will slowly breakdown beyond midweek into next weekend before westerly/southwesterly flow aloft increases into the new week. With the fairly stagnant pattern in place, fire-weather concerns appear limited outside of the Desert Southwest where the drier air mass remains. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... With upstream blocking in place, flow aloft will be somewhat limited through the first part of the extended forecast period. Slightly enhanced southern stream flow associated with a weak sub-tropical shortwave trough will pass over the Southwest and southern High Plains D3/Wed-D4/Thu. Model guidance remains varied on the strength of low-level winds in response to the weak shortwave passage. Confidence remains too low for critical probabilities, but several days of warm temperatures may support drying fuels and some risk for locally elevated fire-weather concerns. A more substantial fire-weather risk appears likely to develop D7/Sun through D8/Mon as the ridge breaks down and southwesterly flow aloft begins to move onshore. 50+ kt 500 mb flow will overspread the Desert Southwest and southern Rockies at the end of the period along with a deepening lee cyclone. Gusty surface winds are likely to overlap with RH values below. The exact areal coverage and duration of fire-weather conditions remains unclear, but critical probabilities will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Central and Southern FL... Across the FL Peninsula, lower rainfall accumulations may exacerbate short-term drought D4/Thur-D5/Fri. While flow aloft will generally be limited, a cold front may support a slight increase in surface winds late this week into the weekend. Confidence is not overly high, but localized dry and breezy conditions are possible each afternoon within very dry fuels across the southern and central FL Peninsula. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Mid-latitude blocking is forecast to remain in place over the West Coast through the first half of the extend forecast period. To the east, an active subtropical jet should support widespread rain over the central and eastern US. Ridging will slowly breakdown beyond midweek into next weekend before westerly/southwesterly flow aloft increases into the new week. With the fairly stagnant pattern in place, fire-weather concerns appear limited outside of the Desert Southwest where the drier air mass remains. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... With upstream blocking in place, flow aloft will be somewhat limited through the first part of the extended forecast period. Slightly enhanced southern stream flow associated with a weak sub-tropical shortwave trough will pass over the Southwest and southern High Plains D3/Wed-D4/Thu. Model guidance remains varied on the strength of low-level winds in response to the weak shortwave passage. Confidence remains too low for critical probabilities, but several days of warm temperatures may support drying fuels and some risk for locally elevated fire-weather concerns. A more substantial fire-weather risk appears likely to develop D7/Sun through D8/Mon as the ridge breaks down and southwesterly flow aloft begins to move onshore. 50+ kt 500 mb flow will overspread the Desert Southwest and southern Rockies at the end of the period along with a deepening lee cyclone. Gusty surface winds are likely to overlap with RH values below. The exact areal coverage and duration of fire-weather conditions remains unclear, but critical probabilities will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Central and Southern FL... Across the FL Peninsula, lower rainfall accumulations may exacerbate short-term drought D4/Thur-D5/Fri. While flow aloft will generally be limited, a cold front may support a slight increase in surface winds late this week into the weekend. Confidence is not overly high, but localized dry and breezy conditions are possible each afternoon within very dry fuels across the southern and central FL Peninsula. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Mid-latitude blocking is forecast to remain in place over the West Coast through the first half of the extend forecast period. To the east, an active subtropical jet should support widespread rain over the central and eastern US. Ridging will slowly breakdown beyond midweek into next weekend before westerly/southwesterly flow aloft increases into the new week. With the fairly stagnant pattern in place, fire-weather concerns appear limited outside of the Desert Southwest where the drier air mass remains. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... With upstream blocking in place, flow aloft will be somewhat limited through the first part of the extended forecast period. Slightly enhanced southern stream flow associated with a weak sub-tropical shortwave trough will pass over the Southwest and southern High Plains D3/Wed-D4/Thu. Model guidance remains varied on the strength of low-level winds in response to the weak shortwave passage. Confidence remains too low for critical probabilities, but several days of warm temperatures may support drying fuels and some risk for locally elevated fire-weather concerns. A more substantial fire-weather risk appears likely to develop D7/Sun through D8/Mon as the ridge breaks down and southwesterly flow aloft begins to move onshore. 50+ kt 500 mb flow will overspread the Desert Southwest and southern Rockies at the end of the period along with a deepening lee cyclone. Gusty surface winds are likely to overlap with RH values below. The exact areal coverage and duration of fire-weather conditions remains unclear, but critical probabilities will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Central and Southern FL... Across the FL Peninsula, lower rainfall accumulations may exacerbate short-term drought D4/Thur-D5/Fri. While flow aloft will generally be limited, a cold front may support a slight increase in surface winds late this week into the weekend. Confidence is not overly high, but localized dry and breezy conditions are possible each afternoon within very dry fuels across the southern and central FL Peninsula. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Mid-latitude blocking is forecast to remain in place over the West Coast through the first half of the extend forecast period. To the east, an active subtropical jet should support widespread rain over the central and eastern US. Ridging will slowly breakdown beyond midweek into next weekend before westerly/southwesterly flow aloft increases into the new week. With the fairly stagnant pattern in place, fire-weather concerns appear limited outside of the Desert Southwest where the drier air mass remains. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... With upstream blocking in place, flow aloft will be somewhat limited through the first part of the extended forecast period. Slightly enhanced southern stream flow associated with a weak sub-tropical shortwave trough will pass over the Southwest and southern High Plains D3/Wed-D4/Thu. Model guidance remains varied on the strength of low-level winds in response to the weak shortwave passage. Confidence remains too low for critical probabilities, but several days of warm temperatures may support drying fuels and some risk for locally elevated fire-weather concerns. A more substantial fire-weather risk appears likely to develop D7/Sun through D8/Mon as the ridge breaks down and southwesterly flow aloft begins to move onshore. 50+ kt 500 mb flow will overspread the Desert Southwest and southern Rockies at the end of the period along with a deepening lee cyclone. Gusty surface winds are likely to overlap with RH values below. The exact areal coverage and duration of fire-weather conditions remains unclear, but critical probabilities will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Central and Southern FL... Across the FL Peninsula, lower rainfall accumulations may exacerbate short-term drought D4/Thur-D5/Fri. While flow aloft will generally be limited, a cold front may support a slight increase in surface winds late this week into the weekend. Confidence is not overly high, but localized dry and breezy conditions are possible each afternoon within very dry fuels across the southern and central FL Peninsula. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Mid-latitude blocking is forecast to remain in place over the West Coast through the first half of the extend forecast period. To the east, an active subtropical jet should support widespread rain over the central and eastern US. Ridging will slowly breakdown beyond midweek into next weekend before westerly/southwesterly flow aloft increases into the new week. With the fairly stagnant pattern in place, fire-weather concerns appear limited outside of the Desert Southwest where the drier air mass remains. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... With upstream blocking in place, flow aloft will be somewhat limited through the first part of the extended forecast period. Slightly enhanced southern stream flow associated with a weak sub-tropical shortwave trough will pass over the Southwest and southern High Plains D3/Wed-D4/Thu. Model guidance remains varied on the strength of low-level winds in response to the weak shortwave passage. Confidence remains too low for critical probabilities, but several days of warm temperatures may support drying fuels and some risk for locally elevated fire-weather concerns. A more substantial fire-weather risk appears likely to develop D7/Sun through D8/Mon as the ridge breaks down and southwesterly flow aloft begins to move onshore. 50+ kt 500 mb flow will overspread the Desert Southwest and southern Rockies at the end of the period along with a deepening lee cyclone. Gusty surface winds are likely to overlap with RH values below. The exact areal coverage and duration of fire-weather conditions remains unclear, but critical probabilities will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Central and Southern FL... Across the FL Peninsula, lower rainfall accumulations may exacerbate short-term drought D4/Thur-D5/Fri. While flow aloft will generally be limited, a cold front may support a slight increase in surface winds late this week into the weekend. Confidence is not overly high, but localized dry and breezy conditions are possible each afternoon within very dry fuels across the southern and central FL Peninsula. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Mid-latitude blocking is forecast to remain in place over the West Coast through the first half of the extend forecast period. To the east, an active subtropical jet should support widespread rain over the central and eastern US. Ridging will slowly breakdown beyond midweek into next weekend before westerly/southwesterly flow aloft increases into the new week. With the fairly stagnant pattern in place, fire-weather concerns appear limited outside of the Desert Southwest where the drier air mass remains. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... With upstream blocking in place, flow aloft will be somewhat limited through the first part of the extended forecast period. Slightly enhanced southern stream flow associated with a weak sub-tropical shortwave trough will pass over the Southwest and southern High Plains D3/Wed-D4/Thu. Model guidance remains varied on the strength of low-level winds in response to the weak shortwave passage. Confidence remains too low for critical probabilities, but several days of warm temperatures may support drying fuels and some risk for locally elevated fire-weather concerns. A more substantial fire-weather risk appears likely to develop D7/Sun through D8/Mon as the ridge breaks down and southwesterly flow aloft begins to move onshore. 50+ kt 500 mb flow will overspread the Desert Southwest and southern Rockies at the end of the period along with a deepening lee cyclone. Gusty surface winds are likely to overlap with RH values below. The exact areal coverage and duration of fire-weather conditions remains unclear, but critical probabilities will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Central and Southern FL... Across the FL Peninsula, lower rainfall accumulations may exacerbate short-term drought D4/Thur-D5/Fri. While flow aloft will generally be limited, a cold front may support a slight increase in surface winds late this week into the weekend. Confidence is not overly high, but localized dry and breezy conditions are possible each afternoon within very dry fuels across the southern and central FL Peninsula. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Mid-latitude blocking is forecast to remain in place over the West Coast through the first half of the extend forecast period. To the east, an active subtropical jet should support widespread rain over the central and eastern US. Ridging will slowly breakdown beyond midweek into next weekend before westerly/southwesterly flow aloft increases into the new week. With the fairly stagnant pattern in place, fire-weather concerns appear limited outside of the Desert Southwest where the drier air mass remains. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... With upstream blocking in place, flow aloft will be somewhat limited through the first part of the extended forecast period. Slightly enhanced southern stream flow associated with a weak sub-tropical shortwave trough will pass over the Southwest and southern High Plains D3/Wed-D4/Thu. Model guidance remains varied on the strength of low-level winds in response to the weak shortwave passage. Confidence remains too low for critical probabilities, but several days of warm temperatures may support drying fuels and some risk for locally elevated fire-weather concerns. A more substantial fire-weather risk appears likely to develop D7/Sun through D8/Mon as the ridge breaks down and southwesterly flow aloft begins to move onshore. 50+ kt 500 mb flow will overspread the Desert Southwest and southern Rockies at the end of the period along with a deepening lee cyclone. Gusty surface winds are likely to overlap with RH values below. The exact areal coverage and duration of fire-weather conditions remains unclear, but critical probabilities will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Central and Southern FL... Across the FL Peninsula, lower rainfall accumulations may exacerbate short-term drought D4/Thur-D5/Fri. While flow aloft will generally be limited, a cold front may support a slight increase in surface winds late this week into the weekend. Confidence is not overly high, but localized dry and breezy conditions are possible each afternoon within very dry fuels across the southern and central FL Peninsula. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Mid-latitude blocking is forecast to remain in place over the West Coast through the first half of the extend forecast period. To the east, an active subtropical jet should support widespread rain over the central and eastern US. Ridging will slowly breakdown beyond midweek into next weekend before westerly/southwesterly flow aloft increases into the new week. With the fairly stagnant pattern in place, fire-weather concerns appear limited outside of the Desert Southwest where the drier air mass remains. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... With upstream blocking in place, flow aloft will be somewhat limited through the first part of the extended forecast period. Slightly enhanced southern stream flow associated with a weak sub-tropical shortwave trough will pass over the Southwest and southern High Plains D3/Wed-D4/Thu. Model guidance remains varied on the strength of low-level winds in response to the weak shortwave passage. Confidence remains too low for critical probabilities, but several days of warm temperatures may support drying fuels and some risk for locally elevated fire-weather concerns. A more substantial fire-weather risk appears likely to develop D7/Sun through D8/Mon as the ridge breaks down and southwesterly flow aloft begins to move onshore. 50+ kt 500 mb flow will overspread the Desert Southwest and southern Rockies at the end of the period along with a deepening lee cyclone. Gusty surface winds are likely to overlap with RH values below. The exact areal coverage and duration of fire-weather conditions remains unclear, but critical probabilities will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Central and Southern FL... Across the FL Peninsula, lower rainfall accumulations may exacerbate short-term drought D4/Thur-D5/Fri. While flow aloft will generally be limited, a cold front may support a slight increase in surface winds late this week into the weekend. Confidence is not overly high, but localized dry and breezy conditions are possible each afternoon within very dry fuels across the southern and central FL Peninsula. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Mid-latitude blocking is forecast to remain in place over the West Coast through the first half of the extend forecast period. To the east, an active subtropical jet should support widespread rain over the central and eastern US. Ridging will slowly breakdown beyond midweek into next weekend before westerly/southwesterly flow aloft increases into the new week. With the fairly stagnant pattern in place, fire-weather concerns appear limited outside of the Desert Southwest where the drier air mass remains. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... With upstream blocking in place, flow aloft will be somewhat limited through the first part of the extended forecast period. Slightly enhanced southern stream flow associated with a weak sub-tropical shortwave trough will pass over the Southwest and southern High Plains D3/Wed-D4/Thu. Model guidance remains varied on the strength of low-level winds in response to the weak shortwave passage. Confidence remains too low for critical probabilities, but several days of warm temperatures may support drying fuels and some risk for locally elevated fire-weather concerns. A more substantial fire-weather risk appears likely to develop D7/Sun through D8/Mon as the ridge breaks down and southwesterly flow aloft begins to move onshore. 50+ kt 500 mb flow will overspread the Desert Southwest and southern Rockies at the end of the period along with a deepening lee cyclone. Gusty surface winds are likely to overlap with RH values below. The exact areal coverage and duration of fire-weather conditions remains unclear, but critical probabilities will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Central and Southern FL... Across the FL Peninsula, lower rainfall accumulations may exacerbate short-term drought D4/Thur-D5/Fri. While flow aloft will generally be limited, a cold front may support a slight increase in surface winds late this week into the weekend. Confidence is not overly high, but localized dry and breezy conditions are possible each afternoon within very dry fuels across the southern and central FL Peninsula. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Mid-latitude blocking is forecast to remain in place over the West Coast through the first half of the extend forecast period. To the east, an active subtropical jet should support widespread rain over the central and eastern US. Ridging will slowly breakdown beyond midweek into next weekend before westerly/southwesterly flow aloft increases into the new week. With the fairly stagnant pattern in place, fire-weather concerns appear limited outside of the Desert Southwest where the drier air mass remains. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... With upstream blocking in place, flow aloft will be somewhat limited through the first part of the extended forecast period. Slightly enhanced southern stream flow associated with a weak sub-tropical shortwave trough will pass over the Southwest and southern High Plains D3/Wed-D4/Thu. Model guidance remains varied on the strength of low-level winds in response to the weak shortwave passage. Confidence remains too low for critical probabilities, but several days of warm temperatures may support drying fuels and some risk for locally elevated fire-weather concerns. A more substantial fire-weather risk appears likely to develop D7/Sun through D8/Mon as the ridge breaks down and southwesterly flow aloft begins to move onshore. 50+ kt 500 mb flow will overspread the Desert Southwest and southern Rockies at the end of the period along with a deepening lee cyclone. Gusty surface winds are likely to overlap with RH values below. The exact areal coverage and duration of fire-weather conditions remains unclear, but critical probabilities will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Central and Southern FL... Across the FL Peninsula, lower rainfall accumulations may exacerbate short-term drought D4/Thur-D5/Fri. While flow aloft will generally be limited, a cold front may support a slight increase in surface winds late this week into the weekend. Confidence is not overly high, but localized dry and breezy conditions are possible each afternoon within very dry fuels across the southern and central FL Peninsula. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Mid-latitude blocking is forecast to remain in place over the West Coast through the first half of the extend forecast period. To the east, an active subtropical jet should support widespread rain over the central and eastern US. Ridging will slowly breakdown beyond midweek into next weekend before westerly/southwesterly flow aloft increases into the new week. With the fairly stagnant pattern in place, fire-weather concerns appear limited outside of the Desert Southwest where the drier air mass remains. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... With upstream blocking in place, flow aloft will be somewhat limited through the first part of the extended forecast period. Slightly enhanced southern stream flow associated with a weak sub-tropical shortwave trough will pass over the Southwest and southern High Plains D3/Wed-D4/Thu. Model guidance remains varied on the strength of low-level winds in response to the weak shortwave passage. Confidence remains too low for critical probabilities, but several days of warm temperatures may support drying fuels and some risk for locally elevated fire-weather concerns. A more substantial fire-weather risk appears likely to develop D7/Sun through D8/Mon as the ridge breaks down and southwesterly flow aloft begins to move onshore. 50+ kt 500 mb flow will overspread the Desert Southwest and southern Rockies at the end of the period along with a deepening lee cyclone. Gusty surface winds are likely to overlap with RH values below. The exact areal coverage and duration of fire-weather conditions remains unclear, but critical probabilities will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Central and Southern FL... Across the FL Peninsula, lower rainfall accumulations may exacerbate short-term drought D4/Thur-D5/Fri. While flow aloft will generally be limited, a cold front may support a slight increase in surface winds late this week into the weekend. Confidence is not overly high, but localized dry and breezy conditions are possible each afternoon within very dry fuels across the southern and central FL Peninsula. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0237 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 237 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N VCT TO 45 NNE VCT TO 50 W HOU TO 25 S UTS TO 25 NE UTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0770 ..GLEASON..05/13/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 237 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC003-011-019-023-053-115-132140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON JEFFERSON DAVIS VERNON TXC039-071-157-167-199-201-239-241-245-291-321-339-351-361-373- 407-457-481-132140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRAZORIA CHAMBERS FORT BEND GALVESTON HARDIN HARRIS JACKSON JASPER JEFFERSON LIBERTY MATAGORDA MONTGOMERY NEWTON ORANGE POLK SAN JACINTO TYLER WHARTON Read more

WW 0237 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 237 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N VCT TO 45 NNE VCT TO 50 W HOU TO 25 S UTS TO 25 NE UTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0770 ..GLEASON..05/13/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 237 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC003-011-019-023-053-115-132140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON JEFFERSON DAVIS VERNON TXC039-071-157-167-199-201-239-241-245-291-321-339-351-361-373- 407-457-481-132140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRAZORIA CHAMBERS FORT BEND GALVESTON HARDIN HARRIS JACKSON JASPER JEFFERSON LIBERTY MATAGORDA MONTGOMERY NEWTON ORANGE POLK SAN JACINTO TYLER WHARTON Read more

WW 0237 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 237 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N VCT TO 45 NNE VCT TO 50 W HOU TO 25 S UTS TO 25 NE UTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0770 ..GLEASON..05/13/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 237 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC003-011-019-023-053-115-132140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON JEFFERSON DAVIS VERNON TXC039-071-157-167-199-201-239-241-245-291-321-339-351-361-373- 407-457-481-132140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRAZORIA CHAMBERS FORT BEND GALVESTON HARDIN HARRIS JACKSON JASPER JEFFERSON LIBERTY MATAGORDA MONTGOMERY NEWTON ORANGE POLK SAN JACINTO TYLER WHARTON Read more