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WW 0243 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0243 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 243 TORNADO FL CW 150645Z - 151500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 243 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 245 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern and Central Florida Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday morning from 245 AM until 1100 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...At least isolated severe storms including supercells are expected to develop through the predawn hours, especially across the north-central Florida Peninsula. The severe risk/tornado potential may further increase toward and beyond sunrise across broader portions of the central Peninsula. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles northwest of Saint Petersburg FL to 20 miles east of Daytona Beach FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Guyer Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS AND INTO EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas South Plains across north/central Texas and into east/southeast Texas on Thursday. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across portions of the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley... A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward across the Southwest/northern Mexico and into the southern Plains on Thursday. Strong mid-level flow will likely exist throughout the base of this trough, spreading eastward across TX and into the Lower MS Valley ahead of the wave. Surface pattern preceding this shortwave trough could be complicated by antecedent precipitation and associated outflow, but the general expectation is for a weak cold front to extend from southeast KS southwestward across central OK and the TX South Plains to another surface low over the TX Trans-Pecos. A warm front is expected to extend southeastward for this low, separating the upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints across south TX and the TX Coastal Plains from the lower 60s dewpoints from west/southwest TX into the Lower MS Valley. Thunderstorm development appears likely along and north of the warm front by the early afternoon, supported by moderate warm-air advection across the warm sector. Isolated hail is possible within the strongest of these storms. Persistence of these showers and thunderstorms should preclude the warm front from making substantial northward progress, with the boundary likely sharpening throughout the morning and into the afternoon. Strong low-level moisture advection is anticipated within the warm sector, with upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints reaching into much of central TX/TX Hill Country by the early afternoon and into southwest TX by the late afternoon. This ample low-level moisture will result in strong buoyancy throughout the warm sector. Strengthening mid-level flow is also anticipated, with the resulting environment capable of severe thunderstorms. Initiation appears most likely in the vicinity of the surface low across southwest TX, with some chance for additional storms near a secondary surface low over the TX Big Country as well as along the boundary between these two features. A supercellular mode is probable, with strong and organized updrafts capable of producing large to very large hail, strong gusts, and a tornado or two. Late afternoon development is also possible across southeast NM, supported by the approaching shortwave trough. Hail and damaging gust are the main threats with these storms. Some eventual upscale growth is possible amid both cold pool amalgamation and increasing large-scale ascent. The resulting convective line would likely move across north/central TX with a attendant threat for damaging gusts. Warm-air advection may also result in the development of thunderstorms across southeast TX. There is some chance these storms begin developing far enough within the warm sector to still be surface-based once they mature. This would result in secondary corridor with slightly higher tornado potential. However, this is a low predictability scenario, which precludes the need for higher probabilities with this outlook. ...Mid MS Valley... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over the region early Thursday morning before continuing northeastward and weakening. Heating in the wake of this early morning activity is expected to result in limited convective inhibition and moderate buoyancy by the afternoon. Convergence along a weak cold front and associated frontal low may result in thunderstorm development. An outflow boundary from the morning storms may also exist, providing another area for low-level convergence and storm initiation. Moderate westerly flow aloft could support a few stronger storms capable of large hail, damaging gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado. ..Mosier.. 05/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS AND INTO EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas South Plains across north/central Texas and into east/southeast Texas on Thursday. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across portions of the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley... A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward across the Southwest/northern Mexico and into the southern Plains on Thursday. Strong mid-level flow will likely exist throughout the base of this trough, spreading eastward across TX and into the Lower MS Valley ahead of the wave. Surface pattern preceding this shortwave trough could be complicated by antecedent precipitation and associated outflow, but the general expectation is for a weak cold front to extend from southeast KS southwestward across central OK and the TX South Plains to another surface low over the TX Trans-Pecos. A warm front is expected to extend southeastward for this low, separating the upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints across south TX and the TX Coastal Plains from the lower 60s dewpoints from west/southwest TX into the Lower MS Valley. Thunderstorm development appears likely along and north of the warm front by the early afternoon, supported by moderate warm-air advection across the warm sector. Isolated hail is possible within the strongest of these storms. Persistence of these showers and thunderstorms should preclude the warm front from making substantial northward progress, with the boundary likely sharpening throughout the morning and into the afternoon. Strong low-level moisture advection is anticipated within the warm sector, with upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints reaching into much of central TX/TX Hill Country by the early afternoon and into southwest TX by the late afternoon. This ample low-level moisture will result in strong buoyancy throughout the warm sector. Strengthening mid-level flow is also anticipated, with the resulting environment capable of severe thunderstorms. Initiation appears most likely in the vicinity of the surface low across southwest TX, with some chance for additional storms near a secondary surface low over the TX Big Country as well as along the boundary between these two features. A supercellular mode is probable, with strong and organized updrafts capable of producing large to very large hail, strong gusts, and a tornado or two. Late afternoon development is also possible across southeast NM, supported by the approaching shortwave trough. Hail and damaging gust are the main threats with these storms. Some eventual upscale growth is possible amid both cold pool amalgamation and increasing large-scale ascent. The resulting convective line would likely move across north/central TX with a attendant threat for damaging gusts. Warm-air advection may also result in the development of thunderstorms across southeast TX. There is some chance these storms begin developing far enough within the warm sector to still be surface-based once they mature. This would result in secondary corridor with slightly higher tornado potential. However, this is a low predictability scenario, which precludes the need for higher probabilities with this outlook. ...Mid MS Valley... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over the region early Thursday morning before continuing northeastward and weakening. Heating in the wake of this early morning activity is expected to result in limited convective inhibition and moderate buoyancy by the afternoon. Convergence along a weak cold front and associated frontal low may result in thunderstorm development. An outflow boundary from the morning storms may also exist, providing another area for low-level convergence and storm initiation. Moderate westerly flow aloft could support a few stronger storms capable of large hail, damaging gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado. ..Mosier.. 05/15/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed May 15 06:07:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND PARTS OF THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT... ...SUMMARY... Several severe thunderstorms should move across the southern Plains this afternoon and evening, accompanied by severe gusts (some possibly exceeding 75 mph), large hail, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible this morning into the afternoon over parts of the northern and central Florida Peninsula, as well as the Carolinas. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the Southeast as a second mid-level trough impinges on the southern Plains today. Along the East Coast, a weak surface low will impinge on the Atlantic Coastline as a surface baroclinic boundary drapes across the central FL Peninsula. Moisture advection ahead of the surface low over the Carolinas, and south of the baroclinic boundary over the central FL Peninsula, will encourage strong to potentially severe thunderstorm development given the presence of adequate vertical wind shear. Meanwhile, strong moisture advection ahead of a rapidly developing surface cyclone over the southern High Plains will promote the development of several severe thunderstorms by afternoon peak heating over the southern Plains. ...Central FL Peninsula... Thunderstorms should be initiating and strengthening along a baroclinic boundary across northern into central portions of the FL Peninsula by the start of the period (12Z) today. During the morning, a 50+ kt westerly 500 mb jet streak will overspread the baroclinic boundary, where 30+ kts of southwesterly 850 mb flow will also be in place, contributing to curved, elongated hodographs. 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear, combined with 2000-3500 J/kg SBCAPE (driven by 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading mid 70s F dewpoints) could result in semi-discrete supercell structures. However, a predominantly linear convective mode could be favored, as the mean wind field will largely parallel the surface baroclinic boundary. Severe wind and hail should be the main threats, though a couple of tornadoes could also occur, especially if any supercell structures can maintain themselves ahead of the convective line. ...Carolinas... Ahead of the weak surface low, adequate boundary layer heating and moistening should occur beneath 6.5-7 C/km low and mid-level lapse rates, supporting a marginally unstable but uncapped airmass by afternoon. The combination of surface heating and some dynamic lifting induced by the approaching mid-level trough, will support late morning/early afternoon thunderstorm initiation. Stronger westerly flow aloft from the mid-level trough will overspread the warm sector, contributing to 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear. Also, with the onset of diurnal heating, surface temperatures warming into the low 80s F amid mid 60s F dewpoints will boost SBCAPE to at least 1500 J/kg. Given relatively elongated, straight hodographs, splitting supercells and merging multicells should occur through the afternoon, accompanied by a severe wind and hail risk. ...Southern Plains... Surface lee troughing along the southern High Plains should become generally more pronounced with increasing deep-layer ascent, driven by an approaching mid-level trough. Through the afternoon, strong diurnal heating will contribute to the development of a deep, well-mixed, uncapped boundary layer. 8-9 C/km lapse rates will reside in the boundary layer and into the mid-levels, resulting in inverted-V profiles across the TX panhandle with 1500-3000 J/kg of tall, thin CAPE. Initial storms should be high-based, with supercells and multicells possible given modestly curved, elongated hodographs. Large hail and severe gusts will be the initial concerns. However, ample evaporative cooling within the deep, well-mixed boundary layer will encourage the development of deep, strong cold pools with a tendency to merge. Severe-wind-producing clusters are expected to rapidly propagate from the TX/OK Panhandles into northwestern OK and eventually southern KS by late afternoon/early evening, preceded by richer low-level moisture and a strengthening low-level jet. These conditions may augment severe wind production (including the potential for 65+ kt gusts) with the stronger storm clusters. Supercell structures may also initiate in the warm-air advection regime along the KS/OK border during the evening, with all severe hazards possible, before storms are overtaken by merging cold pools from the west. Storms should gradually weaken overnight as they either become undercut by overly aggressive cold pools, or they outpace the buoyancy axis by the time they reach far eastern KS/northeastern OK. More isolated thunderstorms may initiate along a diffuse dryline across western TX toward the Rio Grande. Given overall weak forcing, confidence in thunderstorm development and sustenance is not overly high. Nonetheless, over 1500 J/kg SBCAPE amid elongated hodographs suggests that any storm that can form and mature may become supercellular, accompanied by severe wind and hail. ..Squitieri.. 05/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND PARTS OF THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT... ...SUMMARY... Several severe thunderstorms should move across the southern Plains this afternoon and evening, accompanied by severe gusts (some possibly exceeding 75 mph), large hail, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible this morning into the afternoon over parts of the northern and central Florida Peninsula, as well as the Carolinas. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the Southeast as a second mid-level trough impinges on the southern Plains today. Along the East Coast, a weak surface low will impinge on the Atlantic Coastline as a surface baroclinic boundary drapes across the central FL Peninsula. Moisture advection ahead of the surface low over the Carolinas, and south of the baroclinic boundary over the central FL Peninsula, will encourage strong to potentially severe thunderstorm development given the presence of adequate vertical wind shear. Meanwhile, strong moisture advection ahead of a rapidly developing surface cyclone over the southern High Plains will promote the development of several severe thunderstorms by afternoon peak heating over the southern Plains. ...Central FL Peninsula... Thunderstorms should be initiating and strengthening along a baroclinic boundary across northern into central portions of the FL Peninsula by the start of the period (12Z) today. During the morning, a 50+ kt westerly 500 mb jet streak will overspread the baroclinic boundary, where 30+ kts of southwesterly 850 mb flow will also be in place, contributing to curved, elongated hodographs. 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear, combined with 2000-3500 J/kg SBCAPE (driven by 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading mid 70s F dewpoints) could result in semi-discrete supercell structures. However, a predominantly linear convective mode could be favored, as the mean wind field will largely parallel the surface baroclinic boundary. Severe wind and hail should be the main threats, though a couple of tornadoes could also occur, especially if any supercell structures can maintain themselves ahead of the convective line. ...Carolinas... Ahead of the weak surface low, adequate boundary layer heating and moistening should occur beneath 6.5-7 C/km low and mid-level lapse rates, supporting a marginally unstable but uncapped airmass by afternoon. The combination of surface heating and some dynamic lifting induced by the approaching mid-level trough, will support late morning/early afternoon thunderstorm initiation. Stronger westerly flow aloft from the mid-level trough will overspread the warm sector, contributing to 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear. Also, with the onset of diurnal heating, surface temperatures warming into the low 80s F amid mid 60s F dewpoints will boost SBCAPE to at least 1500 J/kg. Given relatively elongated, straight hodographs, splitting supercells and merging multicells should occur through the afternoon, accompanied by a severe wind and hail risk. ...Southern Plains... Surface lee troughing along the southern High Plains should become generally more pronounced with increasing deep-layer ascent, driven by an approaching mid-level trough. Through the afternoon, strong diurnal heating will contribute to the development of a deep, well-mixed, uncapped boundary layer. 8-9 C/km lapse rates will reside in the boundary layer and into the mid-levels, resulting in inverted-V profiles across the TX panhandle with 1500-3000 J/kg of tall, thin CAPE. Initial storms should be high-based, with supercells and multicells possible given modestly curved, elongated hodographs. Large hail and severe gusts will be the initial concerns. However, ample evaporative cooling within the deep, well-mixed boundary layer will encourage the development of deep, strong cold pools with a tendency to merge. Severe-wind-producing clusters are expected to rapidly propagate from the TX/OK Panhandles into northwestern OK and eventually southern KS by late afternoon/early evening, preceded by richer low-level moisture and a strengthening low-level jet. These conditions may augment severe wind production (including the potential for 65+ kt gusts) with the stronger storm clusters. Supercell structures may also initiate in the warm-air advection regime along the KS/OK border during the evening, with all severe hazards possible, before storms are overtaken by merging cold pools from the west. Storms should gradually weaken overnight as they either become undercut by overly aggressive cold pools, or they outpace the buoyancy axis by the time they reach far eastern KS/northeastern OK. More isolated thunderstorms may initiate along a diffuse dryline across western TX toward the Rio Grande. Given overall weak forcing, confidence in thunderstorm development and sustenance is not overly high. Nonetheless, over 1500 J/kg SBCAPE amid elongated hodographs suggests that any storm that can form and mature may become supercellular, accompanied by severe wind and hail. ..Squitieri.. 05/15/2024 Read more

Collier County commissioners enacted a burn ban on May 14 effective immediately for all unincorporated parts of the county. Open burning is prohibited. Naples Daily News (Fla.), May 14, 2024

All nine of the Comal County-operated boat ramps were closed, due to the low water level. While the lake is low, crews were improving concrete boat ramps on the south side of the lake. Despite the boat ramps being extended, the water level was too low for the ramps to be of use. New Braunfels Herald-Zeitung (Texas), May 15, 2024 Canyon Lake has reached its lowest point since the 1960s when the lake filled. It was 59% full with a mean water level of 886.77 feet., as reported by Water Data for Texas. The nine boat ramps operated by Comal County were closed during the summer of 2023, due to the low water level. The three ramps controlled by the US Army Corps of Engineers were also closed. MySA.com (San Antonio, Texas), April 22, 2024 Canyon Lake is nearing a historic low and is about a half foot above its lowest elevation in its history. The lake is 69.5% full with a recorded level of 893.25 feet. The lowest elevation on record was on Sept. 9, 2009, at 892.70 feet. Just four of the 23 boat ramps on the lake were open. KSAT 12 Online (San Antonio, Texas), Aug 18, 2023

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed May 15 03:07:01 UTC 2024.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind or hail remains possible across parts of the Southeast and Plains states into this evening, and in north Florida overnight. ...Synopsis... A weak surface low continues to linger across the Southeast, with scattered thunderstorms ongoing amid a moist, marginally unstable airmass. With the onset of nocturnal cooling, these storms should continue to weaken through the evening. In the meantime though, 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 40 kts of effective bulk shear may support an additional damaging gust or instance of marginally severe hail. An additional round of storms may also develop late tonight across northern FL, perhaps accompanied by a severe hail threat. However, convective overturning from earlier storms has stabilized the airmass, so confidence in this scenario is not overly high. Finally, clusters of thunderstorm are still in progress across multiple portions of the Plains states. Though deep, the boundary layer remains unstable ahead of these storm clusters. Until nocturnal cooling diminishes severe potential, an isolated severe gust or instance of hail is possible over the next few hours. ..Squitieri.. 05/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind or hail remains possible across parts of the Southeast and Plains states into this evening, and in north Florida overnight. ...Synopsis... A weak surface low continues to linger across the Southeast, with scattered thunderstorms ongoing amid a moist, marginally unstable airmass. With the onset of nocturnal cooling, these storms should continue to weaken through the evening. In the meantime though, 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 40 kts of effective bulk shear may support an additional damaging gust or instance of marginally severe hail. An additional round of storms may also develop late tonight across northern FL, perhaps accompanied by a severe hail threat. However, convective overturning from earlier storms has stabilized the airmass, so confidence in this scenario is not overly high. Finally, clusters of thunderstorm are still in progress across multiple portions of the Plains states. Though deep, the boundary layer remains unstable ahead of these storm clusters. Until nocturnal cooling diminishes severe potential, an isolated severe gust or instance of hail is possible over the next few hours. ..Squitieri.. 05/15/2024 Read more

WW 0242 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 242 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW TUP TO 30 WNW MSL TO 35 NW MSL TO 30 ESE MKL TO 20 SSE MKL. ..SPC..05/14/24 ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 242 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC033-059-077-079-083-089-103-142340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLBERT FRANKLIN LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MADISON MORGAN MSC057-081-115-117-141-142340- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ITAWAMBA LEE PONTOTOC PRENTISS TISHOMINGO TNC003-015-021-031-037-043-051-055-061-081-083-085-099-101-103- 111-117-119-125-127-147-149-159-161-165-169-175-177-181-187-189- 142340- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 242 SEVERE TSTM AL MS TN 141850Z - 150100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 242 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 150 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Alabama Northeast Mississippi Western and middle Tennessee * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 150 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to form and spread east-northeastward from northern Mississippi and western Tennessee toward northwest Alabama and middle Tennessee through late afternoon/evening. The strongest clusters and/or storms with supercell structure will be capable of producing isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter and isolated damaging winds near 60 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles southwest of Muscle Shoals AL to 35 miles northwest of Nashville TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Thompson Read more

MD 0786 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 242... FOR TN VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0786 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0524 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Areas affected...TN Valley Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 242... Valid 142224Z - 150000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 242 continues. SUMMARY...Gusty winds, along with some risk for marginally severe hail, will continue along the leading edge of the MCS as it propagates east this evening. DISCUSSION...MS Valley trough is advancing slowly east this evening as primary belt of stronger mid-level flow translates across the central Gulf States. Mid-level temperatures are seasonally cool north of this jet with 500mb values around -12C across the TN Valley. As a result, modest buoyancy has developed ahead of the trough with MLCAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg into middle TN. While much of this air mass has been convectively overturned, the ongoing MCS is progressing through the main instability axis and will soon begin to encounter less buoyancy. Damaging winds will likely accompany the leading edge of the surging squall line for the next few hours, but with time this activity should gradually wane over eastern TN. ..Darrow.. 05/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG... LAT...LON 34388918 36488827 36478595 34388690 34388918 Read more

MD 0787 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0787 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0526 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Areas affected...portions of western Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 142226Z - 150000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple of isolated severe gusts and an instance of marginally severe hail may accompany any storms that can develop and mature. Given the sparse nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are attempting to initiate across portions of western TX ahead of a diffuse dryline, amid a synoptic environment characterized by weak forcing. Surface temperatures are reaching the mid 90s F in spots, which is breaching convective temperatures amid a deep (sfc-600 mb), uncapped boundary layer. Forecast soundings suggest modestly curved and elongated hodographs may support a transient, high-based supercell for any updraft that can intensify and become established. Within the deep boundary layer, lapse rates exceed 9 C/km, suggesting that isolated instances of severe gusts and perhaps hail may occur with any supercell structure given the aforementioned shear profiles. Nonetheless, the severe threat should be isolated at best, so a WW issuance is not currently anticipated. ..Squitieri/Smith.. 05/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... LAT...LON 31539905 31209922 31050042 31020149 32630218 34430252 35120231 34910127 33840031 32409936 31539905 Read more

MD 0785 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0785 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0507 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern Colorado into western Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 142207Z - 142330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts are possible through the afternoon, and an instance or two of marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out. A WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Pulse cellular and multicellular storms have been percolating in intensity across portions of eastern CO into western KS. These storms are overspreading a deep boundary layer with large rainwater evaporation potential, with surface temperatures approaching 90 F amid low 40s dewpoints. Given the 40-50 F spreads and inverted-v vertical thermodynamic profiles extending to nearly 500 mb, the ongoing storms should be high-based. 21Z mesoanalysis shows 9.5-10 C/km 0-3 km lapse rates within the boundary layer, suggesting that rainfall evaporation will support enough downward momentum transport to potentially produce a couple of severe gusts. One of the heavier/wetter storm cores may also contain some hail. Nonetheless, the severe threat should be isolated and a WW issuance is unlikely. ..Squitieri/Smith.. 05/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 37890491 38880469 39610354 39960222 39870109 39210030 38319999 37670007 37050099 36820310 37330410 37890491 Read more

MD 0784 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0784 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Areas affected...portions of southern South Dakota into northern Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 142153Z - 142300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storms should continue with an isolated severe wind and hail threat through the afternoon. A WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Clusters of thunderstorms have been maturing into multicells and transient supercells over the past couple of hours along the SD/NE border. Ahead of these storms, temperatures have warmed to around 80 F amid upper 40s F dewpoints (locally higher along a surface boundary), supporting around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE (per latest mesoanalysis and RAP forecast soundings). Deep-layer shear is relatively weak, but steep tropospheric lapse rates suggest that isolated instances of severe hail and wind may accompany the stronger updrafts, particularly with any sustained supercell structures this afternoon and evening. Given the isolated nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not anticipated. ..Squitieri/Smith.. 05/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 42690338 43590235 44180122 44180039 43799962 42999880 42669868 42239888 41749959 41410018 41640072 42060141 42360235 42690338 Read more

Brush fires and wildfires were becoming a bigger concern on the Treasure Coast. At least one to two brush fires have occurred daily, ranging from small flare-ups to blazes a couple hundred of acres in size. The public was asked not to have any bonfires or burn vegetation. There is no official burn ban in effect. WPEC-TV CBS 12 West Palm Beach (Fla.), May 14, 2024

WW 0242 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 242 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW TUP TO 30 WNW MSL TO 35 NW MSL TO 30 ESE MKL TO 20 SSE MKL. ..SPC..05/14/24 ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 242 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC033-059-077-079-083-089-103-142340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLBERT FRANKLIN LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MADISON MORGAN MSC057-081-115-117-141-142340- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ITAWAMBA LEE PONTOTOC PRENTISS TISHOMINGO TNC003-015-021-031-037-043-051-055-061-081-083-085-099-101-103- 111-117-119-125-127-147-149-159-161-165-169-175-177-181-187-189- 142340- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more