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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely across parts of Kansas Sunday afternoon and evening. Significant damaging gusts, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. Large hail is also probable along parts of the east coast of Florida. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will slowly exit the southeastern U.S. coast on Sunday. Across the West, another broad upper-level trough will intensify and dig southward. Shortwave perturbations are expected to eject into the central Plains early Sunday morning and near the Raton Meso into western Kansas later in the afternoon. At the surface, a weak surface low will move through southeastern Georgia into North Florida. A surface boundary may sag farther southward into the Florida Peninsula along with a sea breeze front developing by the afternoon. In the High Plains, two surface lows will deepen, one in the southern High Plains and another in the central High Plains near the Black Hills. ...Central into Southern Plains... Some convection is expected to be ongoing early in the period along the Kansas/Nebraska border into eastern Nebraska in association with a low-level jet and the weak shortwave trough moving through the region. This activity will shift north and east with time as the trough passes. By the afternoon, a dryline forecast to develop from southwest Kansas into the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma. A capping inversion should keep development from occurring until the secondary shortwave ejects during the afternoon. Storms that initially develop in Kansas will likely be supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail. The uncertainty in this scenario will be how long storms will remain discrete. Storms that can form farther east along the dryline would have the greatest potential to remain discrete for longer. However, there is a signal for convection to develop within the Raton Mesa and eventually intensify as it encounters greater surface moisture to the east. These storms would likely be more outflow dominant initially and could lead to the quicker clustering that most guidance shows in Kansas. Forecast soundings from CAMs show strong cold pool development and hints of a strong rear inflow jet, suggesting potential for a strong MCS capable of significant wind gusts. Farther south into western Oklahoma, storm coverage is much less certain on account of stronger capping and weaker forcing. Should a storm develop, all severe hazards would be possible. Currently, a discrete storm appears most likely in northwest Oklahoma on the southern fringe of the mid-level ascent. ...Florida... Storms appear likely to develop along the southward sagging surface boundary. However, strong heating is expected along the east coast of Florida with storms forming along the sea breeze in the afternoon. With the generally favorable timing of the shortwave trough, shear should be sufficient for supercells and temperatures aloft should be cold enough (around -10 C) to support a threat for large hail. Farther west, storms are not expected to be as organized, but isolated damaging winds and large hail are still possible. ...Western Nebraska/western South Dakota... The northern surface low will deepen and help advect mid to perhaps upper 50s F dewpoints into the region. Storms are expected to develop during the afternoon. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be the main hazards. The larger surface temperature/dewpoint spreads and weaker shear than farther south may lead to less organized storms. As such, will continue with a Marginal hail/wind risk. ..Wendt.. 05/18/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181723
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat May 18 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Coast of Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure continues to produce disorganized showers
and thunderstorms several hundred miles to the south of the coast of
southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear marginal and
development of this system, if any, should be slow to occur as it
moves westward during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

South of the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development of this system
is no longer expected due to nearby dry air and unfavorable
environmental conditions.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally Elevated fire weather conditions may develop for a couple of hours this afternoon across portions of the southern Florida peninsula as westerly surface winds near 15 mph, very hot temperatures (upper 90s F), and modestly lowered RH values overlap areas with at least marginally receptive fuels. However, fire weather conditions appear too limited in space and time for an Elevated fire weather area. Otherwise, the fire weather forecast remains on track. ..Elliott.. 05/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid level ridging will start to build into the central CONUS today with a series of troughs moving through the Northwest and northern Plains. At this time, dry fuels are concentrated across portions of the Southwest and southern High Plains. However, winds will be mostly light across this region on Saturday. Some dry and breezy (15 to 20 mph) conditions are possible across southern Arizona as mid-level flow strengthens, but fuels are not dry enough to support large fires at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally Elevated fire weather conditions may develop for a couple of hours this afternoon across portions of the southern Florida peninsula as westerly surface winds near 15 mph, very hot temperatures (upper 90s F), and modestly lowered RH values overlap areas with at least marginally receptive fuels. However, fire weather conditions appear too limited in space and time for an Elevated fire weather area. Otherwise, the fire weather forecast remains on track. ..Elliott.. 05/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid level ridging will start to build into the central CONUS today with a series of troughs moving through the Northwest and northern Plains. At this time, dry fuels are concentrated across portions of the Southwest and southern High Plains. However, winds will be mostly light across this region on Saturday. Some dry and breezy (15 to 20 mph) conditions are possible across southern Arizona as mid-level flow strengthens, but fuels are not dry enough to support large fires at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally Elevated fire weather conditions may develop for a couple of hours this afternoon across portions of the southern Florida peninsula as westerly surface winds near 15 mph, very hot temperatures (upper 90s F), and modestly lowered RH values overlap areas with at least marginally receptive fuels. However, fire weather conditions appear too limited in space and time for an Elevated fire weather area. Otherwise, the fire weather forecast remains on track. ..Elliott.. 05/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid level ridging will start to build into the central CONUS today with a series of troughs moving through the Northwest and northern Plains. At this time, dry fuels are concentrated across portions of the Southwest and southern High Plains. However, winds will be mostly light across this region on Saturday. Some dry and breezy (15 to 20 mph) conditions are possible across southern Arizona as mid-level flow strengthens, but fuels are not dry enough to support large fires at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally Elevated fire weather conditions may develop for a couple of hours this afternoon across portions of the southern Florida peninsula as westerly surface winds near 15 mph, very hot temperatures (upper 90s F), and modestly lowered RH values overlap areas with at least marginally receptive fuels. However, fire weather conditions appear too limited in space and time for an Elevated fire weather area. Otherwise, the fire weather forecast remains on track. ..Elliott.. 05/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid level ridging will start to build into the central CONUS today with a series of troughs moving through the Northwest and northern Plains. At this time, dry fuels are concentrated across portions of the Southwest and southern High Plains. However, winds will be mostly light across this region on Saturday. Some dry and breezy (15 to 20 mph) conditions are possible across southern Arizona as mid-level flow strengthens, but fuels are not dry enough to support large fires at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally Elevated fire weather conditions may develop for a couple of hours this afternoon across portions of the southern Florida peninsula as westerly surface winds near 15 mph, very hot temperatures (upper 90s F), and modestly lowered RH values overlap areas with at least marginally receptive fuels. However, fire weather conditions appear too limited in space and time for an Elevated fire weather area. Otherwise, the fire weather forecast remains on track. ..Elliott.. 05/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid level ridging will start to build into the central CONUS today with a series of troughs moving through the Northwest and northern Plains. At this time, dry fuels are concentrated across portions of the Southwest and southern High Plains. However, winds will be mostly light across this region on Saturday. Some dry and breezy (15 to 20 mph) conditions are possible across southern Arizona as mid-level flow strengthens, but fuels are not dry enough to support large fires at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally Elevated fire weather conditions may develop for a couple of hours this afternoon across portions of the southern Florida peninsula as westerly surface winds near 15 mph, very hot temperatures (upper 90s F), and modestly lowered RH values overlap areas with at least marginally receptive fuels. However, fire weather conditions appear too limited in space and time for an Elevated fire weather area. Otherwise, the fire weather forecast remains on track. ..Elliott.. 05/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid level ridging will start to build into the central CONUS today with a series of troughs moving through the Northwest and northern Plains. At this time, dry fuels are concentrated across portions of the Southwest and southern High Plains. However, winds will be mostly light across this region on Saturday. Some dry and breezy (15 to 20 mph) conditions are possible across southern Arizona as mid-level flow strengthens, but fuels are not dry enough to support large fires at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally Elevated fire weather conditions may develop for a couple of hours this afternoon across portions of the southern Florida peninsula as westerly surface winds near 15 mph, very hot temperatures (upper 90s F), and modestly lowered RH values overlap areas with at least marginally receptive fuels. However, fire weather conditions appear too limited in space and time for an Elevated fire weather area. Otherwise, the fire weather forecast remains on track. ..Elliott.. 05/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid level ridging will start to build into the central CONUS today with a series of troughs moving through the Northwest and northern Plains. At this time, dry fuels are concentrated across portions of the Southwest and southern High Plains. However, winds will be mostly light across this region on Saturday. Some dry and breezy (15 to 20 mph) conditions are possible across southern Arizona as mid-level flow strengthens, but fuels are not dry enough to support large fires at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally Elevated fire weather conditions may develop for a couple of hours this afternoon across portions of the southern Florida peninsula as westerly surface winds near 15 mph, very hot temperatures (upper 90s F), and modestly lowered RH values overlap areas with at least marginally receptive fuels. However, fire weather conditions appear too limited in space and time for an Elevated fire weather area. Otherwise, the fire weather forecast remains on track. ..Elliott.. 05/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid level ridging will start to build into the central CONUS today with a series of troughs moving through the Northwest and northern Plains. At this time, dry fuels are concentrated across portions of the Southwest and southern High Plains. However, winds will be mostly light across this region on Saturday. Some dry and breezy (15 to 20 mph) conditions are possible across southern Arizona as mid-level flow strengthens, but fuels are not dry enough to support large fires at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally Elevated fire weather conditions may develop for a couple of hours this afternoon across portions of the southern Florida peninsula as westerly surface winds near 15 mph, very hot temperatures (upper 90s F), and modestly lowered RH values overlap areas with at least marginally receptive fuels. However, fire weather conditions appear too limited in space and time for an Elevated fire weather area. Otherwise, the fire weather forecast remains on track. ..Elliott.. 05/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid level ridging will start to build into the central CONUS today with a series of troughs moving through the Northwest and northern Plains. At this time, dry fuels are concentrated across portions of the Southwest and southern High Plains. However, winds will be mostly light across this region on Saturday. Some dry and breezy (15 to 20 mph) conditions are possible across southern Arizona as mid-level flow strengthens, but fuels are not dry enough to support large fires at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally Elevated fire weather conditions may develop for a couple of hours this afternoon across portions of the southern Florida peninsula as westerly surface winds near 15 mph, very hot temperatures (upper 90s F), and modestly lowered RH values overlap areas with at least marginally receptive fuels. However, fire weather conditions appear too limited in space and time for an Elevated fire weather area. Otherwise, the fire weather forecast remains on track. ..Elliott.. 05/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid level ridging will start to build into the central CONUS today with a series of troughs moving through the Northwest and northern Plains. At this time, dry fuels are concentrated across portions of the Southwest and southern High Plains. However, winds will be mostly light across this region on Saturday. Some dry and breezy (15 to 20 mph) conditions are possible across southern Arizona as mid-level flow strengthens, but fuels are not dry enough to support large fires at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat May 18 16:36:01 UTC 2024.

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-thunderstorm potential today appears to be from the Florida Panhandle eastward to the southern Atlantic Coast, and portions of the western Great Lakes region. ...North FL/South GA... A persistent band of widespread showers and thunderstorms extends from the FL Panhandle into southern GA. This band will sag southward through the day, with occasional intensification along the leading edge as daytime heating destabilizes the upstream environment. Locally gusty/damaging winds appear to be the main threat. ...FL East Coast... Strong heating is occurring along the FL peninsula, where hot/humid conditions will be present this afternoon. Westerly low-level flow will focus a rather strong sea-breeze circulation, with most CAM solutions suggesting scattered thunderstorm development. It is uncertain whether the activity will be along the immediate coastline, or offshore. However, sufficient vertical shear and CAPE profiles indicate a risk of supercells capable of large hail and perhaps a tornado/waterspout or two. ...Western Great Lakes into Central Plains... A surface cold front will extend from western WI into parts of IA/MO/KS by mid-afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along the front from the MN Arrowhead southward into western WI, with more isolated convection from there southward into the Plains states. Forecast soundings in MI/WI/Upper MI show favorable vertical shear profiles for a few supercell structures capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. Therefore have added a SLGT risk area for that scenario. From IA south, relatively weak winds in the lowest 6km and a deep sub-cloud layer suggest outflow dominant storms with a more marginal severe threat. ...CO/Western KS... Model guidance and water vapor imagery show a plume of mid-level moisture spreading into central CO. This should result in a cluster of thunderstorms over the mountains by mid-afternoon, spreading eastward into the Plains this evening. Inverted-v sounding profiles and favorable westerly flow aloft will promote gusty/damaging wind potential in some of this activity. ...MS/AL into the Carolinas... A relatively moist and unstable air mass is in place today across the TN Valley into the Carolinas. Little cap and pockets of daytime heating will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms throughout the region - with some potential for locally gusty/damaging wind gusts. Areas of slightly greater focus for concern of strong storms are 1) Ahead of the MCV currently over northern MS, and 2) an axis from northern AL into central NC along the northern edge of slightly stronger winds aloft. ..Hart/Jewell.. 05/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-thunderstorm potential today appears to be from the Florida Panhandle eastward to the southern Atlantic Coast, and portions of the western Great Lakes region. ...North FL/South GA... A persistent band of widespread showers and thunderstorms extends from the FL Panhandle into southern GA. This band will sag southward through the day, with occasional intensification along the leading edge as daytime heating destabilizes the upstream environment. Locally gusty/damaging winds appear to be the main threat. ...FL East Coast... Strong heating is occurring along the FL peninsula, where hot/humid conditions will be present this afternoon. Westerly low-level flow will focus a rather strong sea-breeze circulation, with most CAM solutions suggesting scattered thunderstorm development. It is uncertain whether the activity will be along the immediate coastline, or offshore. However, sufficient vertical shear and CAPE profiles indicate a risk of supercells capable of large hail and perhaps a tornado/waterspout or two. ...Western Great Lakes into Central Plains... A surface cold front will extend from western WI into parts of IA/MO/KS by mid-afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along the front from the MN Arrowhead southward into western WI, with more isolated convection from there southward into the Plains states. Forecast soundings in MI/WI/Upper MI show favorable vertical shear profiles for a few supercell structures capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. Therefore have added a SLGT risk area for that scenario. From IA south, relatively weak winds in the lowest 6km and a deep sub-cloud layer suggest outflow dominant storms with a more marginal severe threat. ...CO/Western KS... Model guidance and water vapor imagery show a plume of mid-level moisture spreading into central CO. This should result in a cluster of thunderstorms over the mountains by mid-afternoon, spreading eastward into the Plains this evening. Inverted-v sounding profiles and favorable westerly flow aloft will promote gusty/damaging wind potential in some of this activity. ...MS/AL into the Carolinas... A relatively moist and unstable air mass is in place today across the TN Valley into the Carolinas. Little cap and pockets of daytime heating will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms throughout the region - with some potential for locally gusty/damaging wind gusts. Areas of slightly greater focus for concern of strong storms are 1) Ahead of the MCV currently over northern MS, and 2) an axis from northern AL into central NC along the northern edge of slightly stronger winds aloft. ..Hart/Jewell.. 05/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-thunderstorm potential today appears to be from the Florida Panhandle eastward to the southern Atlantic Coast, and portions of the western Great Lakes region. ...North FL/South GA... A persistent band of widespread showers and thunderstorms extends from the FL Panhandle into southern GA. This band will sag southward through the day, with occasional intensification along the leading edge as daytime heating destabilizes the upstream environment. Locally gusty/damaging winds appear to be the main threat. ...FL East Coast... Strong heating is occurring along the FL peninsula, where hot/humid conditions will be present this afternoon. Westerly low-level flow will focus a rather strong sea-breeze circulation, with most CAM solutions suggesting scattered thunderstorm development. It is uncertain whether the activity will be along the immediate coastline, or offshore. However, sufficient vertical shear and CAPE profiles indicate a risk of supercells capable of large hail and perhaps a tornado/waterspout or two. ...Western Great Lakes into Central Plains... A surface cold front will extend from western WI into parts of IA/MO/KS by mid-afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along the front from the MN Arrowhead southward into western WI, with more isolated convection from there southward into the Plains states. Forecast soundings in MI/WI/Upper MI show favorable vertical shear profiles for a few supercell structures capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. Therefore have added a SLGT risk area for that scenario. From IA south, relatively weak winds in the lowest 6km and a deep sub-cloud layer suggest outflow dominant storms with a more marginal severe threat. ...CO/Western KS... Model guidance and water vapor imagery show a plume of mid-level moisture spreading into central CO. This should result in a cluster of thunderstorms over the mountains by mid-afternoon, spreading eastward into the Plains this evening. Inverted-v sounding profiles and favorable westerly flow aloft will promote gusty/damaging wind potential in some of this activity. ...MS/AL into the Carolinas... A relatively moist and unstable air mass is in place today across the TN Valley into the Carolinas. Little cap and pockets of daytime heating will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms throughout the region - with some potential for locally gusty/damaging wind gusts. Areas of slightly greater focus for concern of strong storms are 1) Ahead of the MCV currently over northern MS, and 2) an axis from northern AL into central NC along the northern edge of slightly stronger winds aloft. ..Hart/Jewell.. 05/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-thunderstorm potential today appears to be from the Florida Panhandle eastward to the southern Atlantic Coast, and portions of the western Great Lakes region. ...North FL/South GA... A persistent band of widespread showers and thunderstorms extends from the FL Panhandle into southern GA. This band will sag southward through the day, with occasional intensification along the leading edge as daytime heating destabilizes the upstream environment. Locally gusty/damaging winds appear to be the main threat. ...FL East Coast... Strong heating is occurring along the FL peninsula, where hot/humid conditions will be present this afternoon. Westerly low-level flow will focus a rather strong sea-breeze circulation, with most CAM solutions suggesting scattered thunderstorm development. It is uncertain whether the activity will be along the immediate coastline, or offshore. However, sufficient vertical shear and CAPE profiles indicate a risk of supercells capable of large hail and perhaps a tornado/waterspout or two. ...Western Great Lakes into Central Plains... A surface cold front will extend from western WI into parts of IA/MO/KS by mid-afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along the front from the MN Arrowhead southward into western WI, with more isolated convection from there southward into the Plains states. Forecast soundings in MI/WI/Upper MI show favorable vertical shear profiles for a few supercell structures capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. Therefore have added a SLGT risk area for that scenario. From IA south, relatively weak winds in the lowest 6km and a deep sub-cloud layer suggest outflow dominant storms with a more marginal severe threat. ...CO/Western KS... Model guidance and water vapor imagery show a plume of mid-level moisture spreading into central CO. This should result in a cluster of thunderstorms over the mountains by mid-afternoon, spreading eastward into the Plains this evening. Inverted-v sounding profiles and favorable westerly flow aloft will promote gusty/damaging wind potential in some of this activity. ...MS/AL into the Carolinas... A relatively moist and unstable air mass is in place today across the TN Valley into the Carolinas. Little cap and pockets of daytime heating will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms throughout the region - with some potential for locally gusty/damaging wind gusts. Areas of slightly greater focus for concern of strong storms are 1) Ahead of the MCV currently over northern MS, and 2) an axis from northern AL into central NC along the northern edge of slightly stronger winds aloft. ..Hart/Jewell.. 05/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-thunderstorm potential today appears to be from the Florida Panhandle eastward to the southern Atlantic Coast, and portions of the western Great Lakes region. ...North FL/South GA... A persistent band of widespread showers and thunderstorms extends from the FL Panhandle into southern GA. This band will sag southward through the day, with occasional intensification along the leading edge as daytime heating destabilizes the upstream environment. Locally gusty/damaging winds appear to be the main threat. ...FL East Coast... Strong heating is occurring along the FL peninsula, where hot/humid conditions will be present this afternoon. Westerly low-level flow will focus a rather strong sea-breeze circulation, with most CAM solutions suggesting scattered thunderstorm development. It is uncertain whether the activity will be along the immediate coastline, or offshore. However, sufficient vertical shear and CAPE profiles indicate a risk of supercells capable of large hail and perhaps a tornado/waterspout or two. ...Western Great Lakes into Central Plains... A surface cold front will extend from western WI into parts of IA/MO/KS by mid-afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along the front from the MN Arrowhead southward into western WI, with more isolated convection from there southward into the Plains states. Forecast soundings in MI/WI/Upper MI show favorable vertical shear profiles for a few supercell structures capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. Therefore have added a SLGT risk area for that scenario. From IA south, relatively weak winds in the lowest 6km and a deep sub-cloud layer suggest outflow dominant storms with a more marginal severe threat. ...CO/Western KS... Model guidance and water vapor imagery show a plume of mid-level moisture spreading into central CO. This should result in a cluster of thunderstorms over the mountains by mid-afternoon, spreading eastward into the Plains this evening. Inverted-v sounding profiles and favorable westerly flow aloft will promote gusty/damaging wind potential in some of this activity. ...MS/AL into the Carolinas... A relatively moist and unstable air mass is in place today across the TN Valley into the Carolinas. Little cap and pockets of daytime heating will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms throughout the region - with some potential for locally gusty/damaging wind gusts. Areas of slightly greater focus for concern of strong storms are 1) Ahead of the MCV currently over northern MS, and 2) an axis from northern AL into central NC along the northern edge of slightly stronger winds aloft. ..Hart/Jewell.. 05/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-thunderstorm potential today appears to be from the Florida Panhandle eastward to the southern Atlantic Coast, and portions of the western Great Lakes region. ...North FL/South GA... A persistent band of widespread showers and thunderstorms extends from the FL Panhandle into southern GA. This band will sag southward through the day, with occasional intensification along the leading edge as daytime heating destabilizes the upstream environment. Locally gusty/damaging winds appear to be the main threat. ...FL East Coast... Strong heating is occurring along the FL peninsula, where hot/humid conditions will be present this afternoon. Westerly low-level flow will focus a rather strong sea-breeze circulation, with most CAM solutions suggesting scattered thunderstorm development. It is uncertain whether the activity will be along the immediate coastline, or offshore. However, sufficient vertical shear and CAPE profiles indicate a risk of supercells capable of large hail and perhaps a tornado/waterspout or two. ...Western Great Lakes into Central Plains... A surface cold front will extend from western WI into parts of IA/MO/KS by mid-afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along the front from the MN Arrowhead southward into western WI, with more isolated convection from there southward into the Plains states. Forecast soundings in MI/WI/Upper MI show favorable vertical shear profiles for a few supercell structures capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. Therefore have added a SLGT risk area for that scenario. From IA south, relatively weak winds in the lowest 6km and a deep sub-cloud layer suggest outflow dominant storms with a more marginal severe threat. ...CO/Western KS... Model guidance and water vapor imagery show a plume of mid-level moisture spreading into central CO. This should result in a cluster of thunderstorms over the mountains by mid-afternoon, spreading eastward into the Plains this evening. Inverted-v sounding profiles and favorable westerly flow aloft will promote gusty/damaging wind potential in some of this activity. ...MS/AL into the Carolinas... A relatively moist and unstable air mass is in place today across the TN Valley into the Carolinas. Little cap and pockets of daytime heating will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms throughout the region - with some potential for locally gusty/damaging wind gusts. Areas of slightly greater focus for concern of strong storms are 1) Ahead of the MCV currently over northern MS, and 2) an axis from northern AL into central NC along the northern edge of slightly stronger winds aloft. ..Hart/Jewell.. 05/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-thunderstorm potential today appears to be from the Florida Panhandle eastward to the southern Atlantic Coast, and portions of the western Great Lakes region. ...North FL/South GA... A persistent band of widespread showers and thunderstorms extends from the FL Panhandle into southern GA. This band will sag southward through the day, with occasional intensification along the leading edge as daytime heating destabilizes the upstream environment. Locally gusty/damaging winds appear to be the main threat. ...FL East Coast... Strong heating is occurring along the FL peninsula, where hot/humid conditions will be present this afternoon. Westerly low-level flow will focus a rather strong sea-breeze circulation, with most CAM solutions suggesting scattered thunderstorm development. It is uncertain whether the activity will be along the immediate coastline, or offshore. However, sufficient vertical shear and CAPE profiles indicate a risk of supercells capable of large hail and perhaps a tornado/waterspout or two. ...Western Great Lakes into Central Plains... A surface cold front will extend from western WI into parts of IA/MO/KS by mid-afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along the front from the MN Arrowhead southward into western WI, with more isolated convection from there southward into the Plains states. Forecast soundings in MI/WI/Upper MI show favorable vertical shear profiles for a few supercell structures capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. Therefore have added a SLGT risk area for that scenario. From IA south, relatively weak winds in the lowest 6km and a deep sub-cloud layer suggest outflow dominant storms with a more marginal severe threat. ...CO/Western KS... Model guidance and water vapor imagery show a plume of mid-level moisture spreading into central CO. This should result in a cluster of thunderstorms over the mountains by mid-afternoon, spreading eastward into the Plains this evening. Inverted-v sounding profiles and favorable westerly flow aloft will promote gusty/damaging wind potential in some of this activity. ...MS/AL into the Carolinas... A relatively moist and unstable air mass is in place today across the TN Valley into the Carolinas. Little cap and pockets of daytime heating will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms throughout the region - with some potential for locally gusty/damaging wind gusts. Areas of slightly greater focus for concern of strong storms are 1) Ahead of the MCV currently over northern MS, and 2) an axis from northern AL into central NC along the northern edge of slightly stronger winds aloft. ..Hart/Jewell.. 05/18/2024 Read more