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MD 0821 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0821 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0917 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Areas affected...southern Louisiana and far southern Mississippi Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 180217Z - 180315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe weather threat will increase into the overnight hours across southern Louisiana and far southern Mississippi. DISCUSSION...A very moist Gulf airmass is in place across southern Louisiana this evening with a 18.5 mean mixing ratio on the 00Z LIX RAOB and mid to upper 70s dewpoints across most of the Delta. This deep moisture is supporting 2500 to 4000 J/kg MUCAPE (per SPC mesoanalysis) which should be maintained for much of the overnight period across the region. Strong shear (60 to 70 knots) will support supercells with a primary threat of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Weak low-level flow, per LIX 00Z RAOB and HDC VWP, combined with weak low-level lapse rates and at least partially elevated inflow bases, should limit the tornado threat during the overnight period. A severe thunderstorm watch is likely by 03Z to cover the overnight supercell threat. ..Bentley/Smith.. 05/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 29339361 29999288 30539157 30878975 30868887 30708861 30508843 30198841 29518871 29028896 28778959 28979075 29079140 29009212 28919270 28879291 29339361 Read more

MD 0820 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 256... FOR NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0820 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0846 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Areas affected...Northern Florida and far southern Georgia Concerning...Tornado Watch 256... Valid 180146Z - 180315Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 256 continues. SUMMARY...The severe weather threat will persist through the evening. DISCUSSION...Scattered supercells continue within tornado watch 256 and will continue to pose a threat for damaging wind gusts and potentially a tornado. Thus far the tornado threat has been limited, likely related to weak low-level lapse rates and lack of greater low-level updraft acceleration. Shear has also weakened with eastern extent and therefore, expect that the greater coverage threat for the remainder of the evening will be damaging wind gusts. Nonetheless, there is still some low-level cyclonic curvature and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. ..Bentley.. 05/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 30048464 30438475 31278292 31338149 30448146 30098252 30048371 30048464 Read more

MD 0819 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 255... FOR SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0819 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0807 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Areas affected...southeastern North Dakota and northeastern South Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 255... Valid 180107Z - 180300Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 255 continues. SUMMARY...Peak surface gusts associated with ongoing thunderstorms have generally subsided, but could still increase once again across parts of northeastern South Dakota and southeastern North Dakota through 9-11 PM CDT. DISCUSSION...Based on cooling cloud tops, radar and lightning data, convection has undergone recent intensification in a cluster centered across south central North Dakota, and now shifting east of the Missouri River. This appears near the exit region of a seasonably strong high-level jet streak nosing into the northern high plains, which may help maintain convection as it spreads toward the Red River Valley this evening. Although probably unaccompanied by appreciable low-level moistening, the Rapid Refresh indicates considerable strengthening of south-southwesterly flow around 850 mb across central Nebraska toward the Watertown SD vicinity through 02-04Z. Forcing on the nose of this low-level jet may augment the upper support for convection, in the presence of limited instability, and downward mixing of this momentum could also support another uptick in potential for severe surface gusts. ..Kerr.. 05/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 45530047 46269974 46649874 47179771 46689651 45799689 45219839 45149975 45530047 Read more

WW 0256 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 256 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N AAF TO 5 NE TLH TO 15 WSW VLD TO 25 ESE AYS TO 35 ENE SSI. ..BENTLEY..05/18/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 256 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC003-023-047-065-067-073-079-121-123-129-180340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER COLUMBIA HAMILTON JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LEON MADISON SUWANNEE TAYLOR WAKULLA GAC039-049-101-180340- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMDEN CHARLTON ECHOLS AMZ450-180340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0255 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 255 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE MBG TO 30 S JMS TO 20 ENE JMS TO 40 WSW GFK TO 20 N HCO. ..KERR..05/18/24 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 255 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC027-069-089-107-113-119-125-135-180340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY KITTSON MARSHALL NORMAN PENNINGTON POLK RED LAKE ROSEAU NDC003-017-021-035-045-073-081-091-097-180340- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNES CASS DICKEY GRAND FORKS LAMOURE RANSOM SARGENT STEELE TRAILL SDC013-045-089-129-180340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0255 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 255 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW MBG TO 40 N MBG TO 50 WNW JMS TO 40 ESE DVL TO 30 NW HCO. ..KERR..05/18/24 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 255 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC027-069-089-107-113-119-125-135-180240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY KITTSON MARSHALL NORMAN PENNINGTON POLK RED LAKE ROSEAU NDC003-017-021-031-035-039-045-047-051-063-067-073-081-091-093- 097-099-180240- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNES CASS DICKEY FOSTER GRAND FORKS GRIGGS LAMOURE LOGAN MCINTOSH NELSON PEMBINA RANSOM SARGENT STEELE STUTSMAN TRAILL WALSH SDC013-021-045-089-129-180240- Read more

WW 0253 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 253 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N MBG TO 50 NW JMS. ..KERR..05/18/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 253 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC029-043-180240- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EMMONS KIDDER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0253 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 253 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N MBG TO 50 NW JMS. ..KERR..05/18/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 253 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC029-043-180240- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EMMONS KIDDER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0253 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 253 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N MBG TO 50 NW JMS. ..KERR..05/18/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 253 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC029-043-180240- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EMMONS KIDDER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0253 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 253 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N MBG TO 50 NW JMS. ..KERR..05/18/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 253 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC029-043-180240- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EMMONS KIDDER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 253 SEVERE TSTM MT ND SD 171930Z - 180200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 253 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 130 PM MDT Fri May 17 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Montana Western and Central North Dakota Northwest South Dakota * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until 800 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will develop and spread across the watch area through the afternoon and early evening. The strongest cells will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles northwest of Miles City MT to 80 miles northeast of Bismarck ND. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Hart Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST AND A PART OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible through early morning across parts of the central to eastern Gulf Coast States with a threat for a couple tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. Isolated to scattered severe wind gusts remain possible across parts of the northern Great Plains this evening. ...Central to eastern Gulf Coast... Primary near-term tornado and wind threat will exist with a couple clusters across parts of the FL Panhandle and north FL into far southern GA this evening. While low-level flow in the wake of this leading activity will remain weak overnight, strengthening 700-mb warm/moist advection attendant to the next upstream shortwave impulse appears to be aiding in convective development just offshore of the upper TX Gulf Coast. With a plume of large buoyancy persisting across the north-central Gulf, nosing into the central Gulf Coast region as sampled by the 00Z LIX sounding, scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is expected overnight over the northern Gulf. This will initially affect south LA and then spread east across the central Gulf Coast. Strong mid to upper-level southwesterlies will promote a mixed threat of large hail and damaging winds. Consensus of short-term CAM guidance suggests convective mode will predominately consist of linear clustering, which should tend to limit hail size in a conditionally favorable environment for sig severe hail. ...Northern Great Plains... Sporadic severe wind gusts will remain possible through the rest of the evening within an arc of high-based/moderate-topped thunderstorms from southern Manitoba to northwest SD. A strengthening low-level jet and frontal forcing should result in this potential persisting at least a couple hours beyond dusk. But a rapid nocturnal increase in MLCIN, amid the weakly buoyant air mass ahead of it as sampled by 00Z ABR sounding, will result in a diminishing severe wind threat overnight. ...Mid-South and south-central TX... Ahead of the primary shortwave impulse over eastern OK that is embedded within the broader southern-stream, positive-tilt trough, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably persist through much of the night across parts of the Mid-South region. With a pocket of enhanced moderate buoyancy over the Ark-La-Miss vicinity, it is plausible that a couple storms might produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts given moderate speed shear above 800 mb per the 00Z LZK sounding. A few stronger storms have developed over a portion of the Edwards Plateau region ahead of the final shortwave impulse embedded within the broader trough. Isolated severe hail/wind risk should persist for a couple more hours before quickly subsiding as MLCIN increases after dusk. ..Grams.. 05/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST AND A PART OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible through early morning across parts of the central to eastern Gulf Coast States with a threat for a couple tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. Isolated to scattered severe wind gusts remain possible across parts of the northern Great Plains this evening. ...Central to eastern Gulf Coast... Primary near-term tornado and wind threat will exist with a couple clusters across parts of the FL Panhandle and north FL into far southern GA this evening. While low-level flow in the wake of this leading activity will remain weak overnight, strengthening 700-mb warm/moist advection attendant to the next upstream shortwave impulse appears to be aiding in convective development just offshore of the upper TX Gulf Coast. With a plume of large buoyancy persisting across the north-central Gulf, nosing into the central Gulf Coast region as sampled by the 00Z LIX sounding, scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is expected overnight over the northern Gulf. This will initially affect south LA and then spread east across the central Gulf Coast. Strong mid to upper-level southwesterlies will promote a mixed threat of large hail and damaging winds. Consensus of short-term CAM guidance suggests convective mode will predominately consist of linear clustering, which should tend to limit hail size in a conditionally favorable environment for sig severe hail. ...Northern Great Plains... Sporadic severe wind gusts will remain possible through the rest of the evening within an arc of high-based/moderate-topped thunderstorms from southern Manitoba to northwest SD. A strengthening low-level jet and frontal forcing should result in this potential persisting at least a couple hours beyond dusk. But a rapid nocturnal increase in MLCIN, amid the weakly buoyant air mass ahead of it as sampled by 00Z ABR sounding, will result in a diminishing severe wind threat overnight. ...Mid-South and south-central TX... Ahead of the primary shortwave impulse over eastern OK that is embedded within the broader southern-stream, positive-tilt trough, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably persist through much of the night across parts of the Mid-South region. With a pocket of enhanced moderate buoyancy over the Ark-La-Miss vicinity, it is plausible that a couple storms might produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts given moderate speed shear above 800 mb per the 00Z LZK sounding. A few stronger storms have developed over a portion of the Edwards Plateau region ahead of the final shortwave impulse embedded within the broader trough. Isolated severe hail/wind risk should persist for a couple more hours before quickly subsiding as MLCIN increases after dusk. ..Grams.. 05/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST AND A PART OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible through early morning across parts of the central to eastern Gulf Coast States with a threat for a couple tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. Isolated to scattered severe wind gusts remain possible across parts of the northern Great Plains this evening. ...Central to eastern Gulf Coast... Primary near-term tornado and wind threat will exist with a couple clusters across parts of the FL Panhandle and north FL into far southern GA this evening. While low-level flow in the wake of this leading activity will remain weak overnight, strengthening 700-mb warm/moist advection attendant to the next upstream shortwave impulse appears to be aiding in convective development just offshore of the upper TX Gulf Coast. With a plume of large buoyancy persisting across the north-central Gulf, nosing into the central Gulf Coast region as sampled by the 00Z LIX sounding, scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is expected overnight over the northern Gulf. This will initially affect south LA and then spread east across the central Gulf Coast. Strong mid to upper-level southwesterlies will promote a mixed threat of large hail and damaging winds. Consensus of short-term CAM guidance suggests convective mode will predominately consist of linear clustering, which should tend to limit hail size in a conditionally favorable environment for sig severe hail. ...Northern Great Plains... Sporadic severe wind gusts will remain possible through the rest of the evening within an arc of high-based/moderate-topped thunderstorms from southern Manitoba to northwest SD. A strengthening low-level jet and frontal forcing should result in this potential persisting at least a couple hours beyond dusk. But a rapid nocturnal increase in MLCIN, amid the weakly buoyant air mass ahead of it as sampled by 00Z ABR sounding, will result in a diminishing severe wind threat overnight. ...Mid-South and south-central TX... Ahead of the primary shortwave impulse over eastern OK that is embedded within the broader southern-stream, positive-tilt trough, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably persist through much of the night across parts of the Mid-South region. With a pocket of enhanced moderate buoyancy over the Ark-La-Miss vicinity, it is plausible that a couple storms might produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts given moderate speed shear above 800 mb per the 00Z LZK sounding. A few stronger storms have developed over a portion of the Edwards Plateau region ahead of the final shortwave impulse embedded within the broader trough. Isolated severe hail/wind risk should persist for a couple more hours before quickly subsiding as MLCIN increases after dusk. ..Grams.. 05/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST AND A PART OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible through early morning across parts of the central to eastern Gulf Coast States with a threat for a couple tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. Isolated to scattered severe wind gusts remain possible across parts of the northern Great Plains this evening. ...Central to eastern Gulf Coast... Primary near-term tornado and wind threat will exist with a couple clusters across parts of the FL Panhandle and north FL into far southern GA this evening. While low-level flow in the wake of this leading activity will remain weak overnight, strengthening 700-mb warm/moist advection attendant to the next upstream shortwave impulse appears to be aiding in convective development just offshore of the upper TX Gulf Coast. With a plume of large buoyancy persisting across the north-central Gulf, nosing into the central Gulf Coast region as sampled by the 00Z LIX sounding, scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is expected overnight over the northern Gulf. This will initially affect south LA and then spread east across the central Gulf Coast. Strong mid to upper-level southwesterlies will promote a mixed threat of large hail and damaging winds. Consensus of short-term CAM guidance suggests convective mode will predominately consist of linear clustering, which should tend to limit hail size in a conditionally favorable environment for sig severe hail. ...Northern Great Plains... Sporadic severe wind gusts will remain possible through the rest of the evening within an arc of high-based/moderate-topped thunderstorms from southern Manitoba to northwest SD. A strengthening low-level jet and frontal forcing should result in this potential persisting at least a couple hours beyond dusk. But a rapid nocturnal increase in MLCIN, amid the weakly buoyant air mass ahead of it as sampled by 00Z ABR sounding, will result in a diminishing severe wind threat overnight. ...Mid-South and south-central TX... Ahead of the primary shortwave impulse over eastern OK that is embedded within the broader southern-stream, positive-tilt trough, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably persist through much of the night across parts of the Mid-South region. With a pocket of enhanced moderate buoyancy over the Ark-La-Miss vicinity, it is plausible that a couple storms might produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts given moderate speed shear above 800 mb per the 00Z LZK sounding. A few stronger storms have developed over a portion of the Edwards Plateau region ahead of the final shortwave impulse embedded within the broader trough. Isolated severe hail/wind risk should persist for a couple more hours before quickly subsiding as MLCIN increases after dusk. ..Grams.. 05/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST AND A PART OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible through early morning across parts of the central to eastern Gulf Coast States with a threat for a couple tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. Isolated to scattered severe wind gusts remain possible across parts of the northern Great Plains this evening. ...Central to eastern Gulf Coast... Primary near-term tornado and wind threat will exist with a couple clusters across parts of the FL Panhandle and north FL into far southern GA this evening. While low-level flow in the wake of this leading activity will remain weak overnight, strengthening 700-mb warm/moist advection attendant to the next upstream shortwave impulse appears to be aiding in convective development just offshore of the upper TX Gulf Coast. With a plume of large buoyancy persisting across the north-central Gulf, nosing into the central Gulf Coast region as sampled by the 00Z LIX sounding, scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is expected overnight over the northern Gulf. This will initially affect south LA and then spread east across the central Gulf Coast. Strong mid to upper-level southwesterlies will promote a mixed threat of large hail and damaging winds. Consensus of short-term CAM guidance suggests convective mode will predominately consist of linear clustering, which should tend to limit hail size in a conditionally favorable environment for sig severe hail. ...Northern Great Plains... Sporadic severe wind gusts will remain possible through the rest of the evening within an arc of high-based/moderate-topped thunderstorms from southern Manitoba to northwest SD. A strengthening low-level jet and frontal forcing should result in this potential persisting at least a couple hours beyond dusk. But a rapid nocturnal increase in MLCIN, amid the weakly buoyant air mass ahead of it as sampled by 00Z ABR sounding, will result in a diminishing severe wind threat overnight. ...Mid-South and south-central TX... Ahead of the primary shortwave impulse over eastern OK that is embedded within the broader southern-stream, positive-tilt trough, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably persist through much of the night across parts of the Mid-South region. With a pocket of enhanced moderate buoyancy over the Ark-La-Miss vicinity, it is plausible that a couple storms might produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts given moderate speed shear above 800 mb per the 00Z LZK sounding. A few stronger storms have developed over a portion of the Edwards Plateau region ahead of the final shortwave impulse embedded within the broader trough. Isolated severe hail/wind risk should persist for a couple more hours before quickly subsiding as MLCIN increases after dusk. ..Grams.. 05/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST AND A PART OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible through early morning across parts of the central to eastern Gulf Coast States with a threat for a couple tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. Isolated to scattered severe wind gusts remain possible across parts of the northern Great Plains this evening. ...Central to eastern Gulf Coast... Primary near-term tornado and wind threat will exist with a couple clusters across parts of the FL Panhandle and north FL into far southern GA this evening. While low-level flow in the wake of this leading activity will remain weak overnight, strengthening 700-mb warm/moist advection attendant to the next upstream shortwave impulse appears to be aiding in convective development just offshore of the upper TX Gulf Coast. With a plume of large buoyancy persisting across the north-central Gulf, nosing into the central Gulf Coast region as sampled by the 00Z LIX sounding, scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is expected overnight over the northern Gulf. This will initially affect south LA and then spread east across the central Gulf Coast. Strong mid to upper-level southwesterlies will promote a mixed threat of large hail and damaging winds. Consensus of short-term CAM guidance suggests convective mode will predominately consist of linear clustering, which should tend to limit hail size in a conditionally favorable environment for sig severe hail. ...Northern Great Plains... Sporadic severe wind gusts will remain possible through the rest of the evening within an arc of high-based/moderate-topped thunderstorms from southern Manitoba to northwest SD. A strengthening low-level jet and frontal forcing should result in this potential persisting at least a couple hours beyond dusk. But a rapid nocturnal increase in MLCIN, amid the weakly buoyant air mass ahead of it as sampled by 00Z ABR sounding, will result in a diminishing severe wind threat overnight. ...Mid-South and south-central TX... Ahead of the primary shortwave impulse over eastern OK that is embedded within the broader southern-stream, positive-tilt trough, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably persist through much of the night across parts of the Mid-South region. With a pocket of enhanced moderate buoyancy over the Ark-La-Miss vicinity, it is plausible that a couple storms might produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts given moderate speed shear above 800 mb per the 00Z LZK sounding. A few stronger storms have developed over a portion of the Edwards Plateau region ahead of the final shortwave impulse embedded within the broader trough. Isolated severe hail/wind risk should persist for a couple more hours before quickly subsiding as MLCIN increases after dusk. ..Grams.. 05/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST AND A PART OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible through early morning across parts of the central to eastern Gulf Coast States with a threat for a couple tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. Isolated to scattered severe wind gusts remain possible across parts of the northern Great Plains this evening. ...Central to eastern Gulf Coast... Primary near-term tornado and wind threat will exist with a couple clusters across parts of the FL Panhandle and north FL into far southern GA this evening. While low-level flow in the wake of this leading activity will remain weak overnight, strengthening 700-mb warm/moist advection attendant to the next upstream shortwave impulse appears to be aiding in convective development just offshore of the upper TX Gulf Coast. With a plume of large buoyancy persisting across the north-central Gulf, nosing into the central Gulf Coast region as sampled by the 00Z LIX sounding, scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is expected overnight over the northern Gulf. This will initially affect south LA and then spread east across the central Gulf Coast. Strong mid to upper-level southwesterlies will promote a mixed threat of large hail and damaging winds. Consensus of short-term CAM guidance suggests convective mode will predominately consist of linear clustering, which should tend to limit hail size in a conditionally favorable environment for sig severe hail. ...Northern Great Plains... Sporadic severe wind gusts will remain possible through the rest of the evening within an arc of high-based/moderate-topped thunderstorms from southern Manitoba to northwest SD. A strengthening low-level jet and frontal forcing should result in this potential persisting at least a couple hours beyond dusk. But a rapid nocturnal increase in MLCIN, amid the weakly buoyant air mass ahead of it as sampled by 00Z ABR sounding, will result in a diminishing severe wind threat overnight. ...Mid-South and south-central TX... Ahead of the primary shortwave impulse over eastern OK that is embedded within the broader southern-stream, positive-tilt trough, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably persist through much of the night across parts of the Mid-South region. With a pocket of enhanced moderate buoyancy over the Ark-La-Miss vicinity, it is plausible that a couple storms might produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts given moderate speed shear above 800 mb per the 00Z LZK sounding. A few stronger storms have developed over a portion of the Edwards Plateau region ahead of the final shortwave impulse embedded within the broader trough. Isolated severe hail/wind risk should persist for a couple more hours before quickly subsiding as MLCIN increases after dusk. ..Grams.. 05/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST AND A PART OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible through early morning across parts of the central to eastern Gulf Coast States with a threat for a couple tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. Isolated to scattered severe wind gusts remain possible across parts of the northern Great Plains this evening. ...Central to eastern Gulf Coast... Primary near-term tornado and wind threat will exist with a couple clusters across parts of the FL Panhandle and north FL into far southern GA this evening. While low-level flow in the wake of this leading activity will remain weak overnight, strengthening 700-mb warm/moist advection attendant to the next upstream shortwave impulse appears to be aiding in convective development just offshore of the upper TX Gulf Coast. With a plume of large buoyancy persisting across the north-central Gulf, nosing into the central Gulf Coast region as sampled by the 00Z LIX sounding, scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is expected overnight over the northern Gulf. This will initially affect south LA and then spread east across the central Gulf Coast. Strong mid to upper-level southwesterlies will promote a mixed threat of large hail and damaging winds. Consensus of short-term CAM guidance suggests convective mode will predominately consist of linear clustering, which should tend to limit hail size in a conditionally favorable environment for sig severe hail. ...Northern Great Plains... Sporadic severe wind gusts will remain possible through the rest of the evening within an arc of high-based/moderate-topped thunderstorms from southern Manitoba to northwest SD. A strengthening low-level jet and frontal forcing should result in this potential persisting at least a couple hours beyond dusk. But a rapid nocturnal increase in MLCIN, amid the weakly buoyant air mass ahead of it as sampled by 00Z ABR sounding, will result in a diminishing severe wind threat overnight. ...Mid-South and south-central TX... Ahead of the primary shortwave impulse over eastern OK that is embedded within the broader southern-stream, positive-tilt trough, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably persist through much of the night across parts of the Mid-South region. With a pocket of enhanced moderate buoyancy over the Ark-La-Miss vicinity, it is plausible that a couple storms might produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts given moderate speed shear above 800 mb per the 00Z LZK sounding. A few stronger storms have developed over a portion of the Edwards Plateau region ahead of the final shortwave impulse embedded within the broader trough. Isolated severe hail/wind risk should persist for a couple more hours before quickly subsiding as MLCIN increases after dusk. ..Grams.. 05/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST AND A PART OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible through early morning across parts of the central to eastern Gulf Coast States with a threat for a couple tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. Isolated to scattered severe wind gusts remain possible across parts of the northern Great Plains this evening. ...Central to eastern Gulf Coast... Primary near-term tornado and wind threat will exist with a couple clusters across parts of the FL Panhandle and north FL into far southern GA this evening. While low-level flow in the wake of this leading activity will remain weak overnight, strengthening 700-mb warm/moist advection attendant to the next upstream shortwave impulse appears to be aiding in convective development just offshore of the upper TX Gulf Coast. With a plume of large buoyancy persisting across the north-central Gulf, nosing into the central Gulf Coast region as sampled by the 00Z LIX sounding, scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is expected overnight over the northern Gulf. This will initially affect south LA and then spread east across the central Gulf Coast. Strong mid to upper-level southwesterlies will promote a mixed threat of large hail and damaging winds. Consensus of short-term CAM guidance suggests convective mode will predominately consist of linear clustering, which should tend to limit hail size in a conditionally favorable environment for sig severe hail. ...Northern Great Plains... Sporadic severe wind gusts will remain possible through the rest of the evening within an arc of high-based/moderate-topped thunderstorms from southern Manitoba to northwest SD. A strengthening low-level jet and frontal forcing should result in this potential persisting at least a couple hours beyond dusk. But a rapid nocturnal increase in MLCIN, amid the weakly buoyant air mass ahead of it as sampled by 00Z ABR sounding, will result in a diminishing severe wind threat overnight. ...Mid-South and south-central TX... Ahead of the primary shortwave impulse over eastern OK that is embedded within the broader southern-stream, positive-tilt trough, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably persist through much of the night across parts of the Mid-South region. With a pocket of enhanced moderate buoyancy over the Ark-La-Miss vicinity, it is plausible that a couple storms might produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts given moderate speed shear above 800 mb per the 00Z LZK sounding. A few stronger storms have developed over a portion of the Edwards Plateau region ahead of the final shortwave impulse embedded within the broader trough. Isolated severe hail/wind risk should persist for a couple more hours before quickly subsiding as MLCIN increases after dusk. ..Grams.. 05/18/2024 Read more