Aggregator

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF EASTERN TO SOUTHERN WI...THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND NORTH FL TO SOUTHEAST GA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening in parts of eastern to southern Wisconsin and the central High Plains. Isolated severe storms may develop over parts of north Florida and far southeast Georgia during the early morning. ...01Z Update... Overall severe potential has diminished across much of the CONUS. Strong to marginally severe storms may linger for another hour or two across parts of eastern to southern WI. Increasing MLCIN within the modestly buoyant warm sector and diminishing low-level convergence should result in storms further weakening through late evening. High-based, low-topped convection persists across east-central to southeast CO. This activity may still produce locally strong wind gusts and small hail as storms spread east into western KS while impinging on a more buoyant air mass in KS. But with increasing nocturnal MLCIN, the overall severe threat should remain marginal. Finally, across north FL into far southeast GA, recent guidance still suggests renewed warm-advection-driven storms should develop within the lingering low-level baroclinic zone over the northeast Gulf. While overall instability will be more limited in the wake of earlier D1 convection, a low-probability severe threat might develop within the mid-level jetlet that is downstream of the positive-tilt shortwave trough across the Deep South and Southeast. ..Grams.. 05/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF EASTERN TO SOUTHERN WI...THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND NORTH FL TO SOUTHEAST GA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening in parts of eastern to southern Wisconsin and the central High Plains. Isolated severe storms may develop over parts of north Florida and far southeast Georgia during the early morning. ...01Z Update... Overall severe potential has diminished across much of the CONUS. Strong to marginally severe storms may linger for another hour or two across parts of eastern to southern WI. Increasing MLCIN within the modestly buoyant warm sector and diminishing low-level convergence should result in storms further weakening through late evening. High-based, low-topped convection persists across east-central to southeast CO. This activity may still produce locally strong wind gusts and small hail as storms spread east into western KS while impinging on a more buoyant air mass in KS. But with increasing nocturnal MLCIN, the overall severe threat should remain marginal. Finally, across north FL into far southeast GA, recent guidance still suggests renewed warm-advection-driven storms should develop within the lingering low-level baroclinic zone over the northeast Gulf. While overall instability will be more limited in the wake of earlier D1 convection, a low-probability severe threat might develop within the mid-level jetlet that is downstream of the positive-tilt shortwave trough across the Deep South and Southeast. ..Grams.. 05/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF EASTERN TO SOUTHERN WI...THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND NORTH FL TO SOUTHEAST GA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening in parts of eastern to southern Wisconsin and the central High Plains. Isolated severe storms may develop over parts of north Florida and far southeast Georgia during the early morning. ...01Z Update... Overall severe potential has diminished across much of the CONUS. Strong to marginally severe storms may linger for another hour or two across parts of eastern to southern WI. Increasing MLCIN within the modestly buoyant warm sector and diminishing low-level convergence should result in storms further weakening through late evening. High-based, low-topped convection persists across east-central to southeast CO. This activity may still produce locally strong wind gusts and small hail as storms spread east into western KS while impinging on a more buoyant air mass in KS. But with increasing nocturnal MLCIN, the overall severe threat should remain marginal. Finally, across north FL into far southeast GA, recent guidance still suggests renewed warm-advection-driven storms should develop within the lingering low-level baroclinic zone over the northeast Gulf. While overall instability will be more limited in the wake of earlier D1 convection, a low-probability severe threat might develop within the mid-level jetlet that is downstream of the positive-tilt shortwave trough across the Deep South and Southeast. ..Grams.. 05/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF EASTERN TO SOUTHERN WI...THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND NORTH FL TO SOUTHEAST GA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening in parts of eastern to southern Wisconsin and the central High Plains. Isolated severe storms may develop over parts of north Florida and far southeast Georgia during the early morning. ...01Z Update... Overall severe potential has diminished across much of the CONUS. Strong to marginally severe storms may linger for another hour or two across parts of eastern to southern WI. Increasing MLCIN within the modestly buoyant warm sector and diminishing low-level convergence should result in storms further weakening through late evening. High-based, low-topped convection persists across east-central to southeast CO. This activity may still produce locally strong wind gusts and small hail as storms spread east into western KS while impinging on a more buoyant air mass in KS. But with increasing nocturnal MLCIN, the overall severe threat should remain marginal. Finally, across north FL into far southeast GA, recent guidance still suggests renewed warm-advection-driven storms should develop within the lingering low-level baroclinic zone over the northeast Gulf. While overall instability will be more limited in the wake of earlier D1 convection, a low-probability severe threat might develop within the mid-level jetlet that is downstream of the positive-tilt shortwave trough across the Deep South and Southeast. ..Grams.. 05/19/2024 Read more

MD 0828 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 257... FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF UPPER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 0828 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0546 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Areas affected...parts of central/northeastern Wisconsin into adjacent portions of Upper Michigan Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 257... Valid 182246Z - 190045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 257 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorm development, including a few supercells posing a risk for severe hail and wind, probably will be maintained while spreading eastward across the region through around 8-9 PM CDT. DISCUSSION...Multiple discrete thunderstorms, including evolving supercells, are ongoing, emanating from a zone of stronger pre-frontal confluence across west central Wisconsin into the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan vicinity. Boundary-layer instability appears maximized along this corridor with mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg and renewed convective initiation remains possible another couple of hours as this zone shifts slowly eastward. Embedded within strongly sheared, 30-40 kt southwesterly deep-layer mean flow, storms have tended to propagate northeastward and eastward away from the initiating zone. Aided by the strong shear, these storms may continue to pose a risk for severe hail and locally strong gusts while spreading toward the Iron Mountain, Green Bay and Oshkosh vicinities through 00-01Z. While forecast soundings exhibit low-level hodographs potentially conducive to a a risk for tornadoes, it still appears this risk will be limited by sizable boundary-layer temperature/dew point spreads. ..Kerr.. 05/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...ARX... LAT...LON 45868902 46428861 46008744 44678817 43778901 43609009 44288998 45358935 45868902 Read more

WW 0257 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 257 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE VOK TO 30 NE IWD TO 25 SW CMX. ..KERR..05/19/24 ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...ARX...GRB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 257 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC013-053-061-071-131-190140- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARAGA GOGEBIC HOUGHTON IRON ONTONAGON WIC037-041-067-069-073-075-083-085-097-125-135-137-141-190140- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FLORENCE FOREST LANGLADE LINCOLN MARATHON MARINETTE OCONTO ONEIDA PORTAGE VILAS WAUPACA WAUSHARA WOOD LSZ247-190140- CW Read more

MD 0828 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 257... FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF UPPER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 0828 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0546 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Areas affected...parts of central/northeastern Wisconsin into adjacent portions of Upper Michigan Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 257... Valid 182246Z - 190045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 257 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorm development, including a few supercells posing a risk for severe hail and wind, probably will be maintained while spreading eastward across the region through around 8-9 PM CDT. DISCUSSION...Multiple discrete thunderstorms, including evolving supercells, are ongoing, emanating from a zone of stronger pre-frontal confluence across west central Wisconsin into the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan vicinity. Boundary-layer instability appears maximized along this corridor with mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg and renewed convective initiation remains possible another couple of hours as this zone shifts slowly eastward. Embedded within strongly sheared, 30-40 kt southwesterly deep-layer mean flow, storms have tended to propagate northeastward and eastward away from the initiating zone. Aided by the strong shear, these storms may continue to pose a risk for severe hail and locally strong gusts while spreading toward the Iron Mountain, Green Bay and Oshkosh vicinities through 00-01Z. While forecast soundings exhibit low-level hodographs potentially conducive to a a risk for tornadoes, it still appears this risk will be limited by sizable boundary-layer temperature/dew point spreads. ..Kerr.. 05/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...ARX... LAT...LON 45868902 46428861 46008744 44678817 43778901 43609009 44288998 45358935 45868902 Read more

WW 0257 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 257 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N VOK TO 25 NNE IWD TO 30 SW CMX. ..KERR..05/18/24 ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...ARX...GRB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 257 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC013-053-061-071-131-190040- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARAGA GOGEBIC HOUGHTON IRON ONTONAGON WIC037-041-067-069-073-085-097-125-141-190040- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FLORENCE FOREST LANGLADE LINCOLN MARATHON ONEIDA PORTAGE VILAS WOOD LSZ247-190040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 257 SEVERE TSTM MI MN WI LS 182030Z - 190300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 257 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 330 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Upper Michigan Minnesota Arrowhead Central and Northern Wisconsin Lake Superior * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 330 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing along a cold front over western Wisconsin and northeast Minnesota. These storms will track eastward through the early evening, posing a risk of hail and damaging winds. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north northeast of Grand Marais MN to 35 miles south of Mosinee WI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Hart Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 182305
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat May 18 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Coast of Southern Mexico:
Disorganized showers located a couple hundred miles to the south of
the coast of southern Mexico have diminished today. Environmental
conditions in the area have become unfavorable, and development of
this system is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Berg

WW 0257 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 257 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S ASX TO 20 SW GNA TO 40 NNW CMX. ..KERR..05/18/24 ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...ARX...GRB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 257 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC013-053-061-071-083-131-182340- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARAGA GOGEBIC HOUGHTON IRON KEWEENAW ONTONAGON WIC003-019-037-041-051-067-069-073-085-097-099-119-125-141- 182340- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLAND CLARK FLORENCE FOREST IRON LANGLADE LINCOLN MARATHON ONEIDA PORTAGE PRICE TAYLOR VILAS WOOD LSZ121-147-148-150-240-241-242-243-244-245-246-247-263-182340- CW Read more

MD 0827 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NC INTO NORTHERN SC
Mesoscale Discussion 0827 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Areas affected...NC into northern SC Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 182049Z - 182245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated damaging winds and hail are possible into early evening. DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually increasing across parts of NC late this afternoon, near a weak cold front draped across northern NC, and also near a confluence zone farther south into central/eastern NC. Modest heating of a moist boundary layer has resulted in moderate destabilization south of the cold front, and a further increase in storm coverage and intensity is possible with time into early evening. This area is on the northern fringe of stronger deep-layer flow associated with a shortwave trough over the TN Valley vicinity, and some modest storm organization is possible. Initial more discrete storms may be capable of producing isolated hail and damaging gusts. With time, some consolidation of storms will be possible along the southward-moving cold front. This may lead to some increase in damaging-wind potential, though there may also be a tendency for the front to undercut storms as outflow helps to accelerate it southward. ..Dean/Hart.. 05/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP... LAT...LON 34978279 35118326 35428330 35568319 35698275 35858203 36378099 36398094 36188010 35897930 35827851 35897813 35937764 35947719 35667623 35237628 34987634 34607651 34327717 34127794 34277914 34468018 34658121 34978279 Read more

MD 0826 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 0826 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Areas affected...parts of central and northern Wisconsin into western Upper Michigan Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 182003Z - 182200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storms will increase in coverage over the next few hours, with areas of strong to locally damaging gusts and marginal hail. DISCUSSION...Strong heating across the area has resulted in up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE as temperatures rise through the 80s F. A prominent cold front/wind shift is moving across western WI and into the western MI U.P. with signs of deepening convection within a pre-frontal warm conveyor. Winds veering with height which may tend to favor cellular storm mode, with a broken line of storms possible along the front. This may favor hail initially. With time, outflows may consolidate, with perhaps linear segments along the front aiding wind potential. Midlevel wind speeds averaging near 40 kt along with the steep boundary layer lapse rates may tend to favor strong outflow production this afternoon into the early evening. ..Jewell/Hart.. 05/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 44628944 43748984 43489016 43409062 43539097 43969129 44479133 45199120 46319098 46679078 47089043 47118994 46988929 46228911 45538926 44628944 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z A persistent mean mid/upper-level trough is forecast across the western United States from Day 3/Monday through at least Day 8/Saturday. This will promote a multi-day period of enhanced mid-level west to southwesterly flow across the Southwest and a prolonged period of dry/breezy surface conditions. While the latest fuel guidance suggests fuels across much of this region are only marginal receptive, owing in part to recent precipitation, several days of additional curing over the next few days and into next week will likely allow fuels to become critically dry. ...Day 3/Monday... Meteorologically, fire weather conditions may peak on Day 3/Monday as a strong mid-level jet overspreads the Southwest. Widespread critical RH values are expected with strong/gusty surface winds. While Critical fire weather conditions are possible across a rather broad area, primary uncertainty remains the impact of recent rainfall on fuels across portions of central/eastern New Mexico and the general state of fuels across Arizona. Have introduced 70% probabilities for Critical Fire weather conditions where confidence in critical conditions is greatest owing to less recent rainfall. The Critical area may need to be refined/expanded as fuel guidance is updated. Additionally, while a few isolated dry thunderstorms are possible (mainly across portions of Arizona), confidence is currently too low to introduce probabilities. ...Day 4/Tuesday... Mid-level flow will shift eastward into the Plains by Day 4/Tuesday with the rear portion of the enhanced mid-level flow remaining over portions of New Mexico and Arizona. Near critical fire weather conditions appear likely, as dry air and breezy surface winds overlap increasingly dry fuels. While Critical fire weather conditions are possible, uncertainty regarding fuel recovery after recent rainfall across much of central New Mexico precludes increasing the critical probabilities. ...Day 5/Wednesday - Day 6/Thursday... Fire weather conditions may decrease some on Day 5/Wednesday and Day 6/Thursday as the stronger mid-level flow moves out of the Southwest. Nevertheless, continued enhanced mid-level flow will promote Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions each day across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Day 7/Friday - Day 8/Saturday... While exact details remain unclear this far in advance, ensemble guidance suggests that mid-level flow will strengthen again late this week and into next weekend across portions of the Southwest. This may lead to another prolonged period of Critical fire weather conditions over a broad area, especially as several days of dry/breezy conditions and no appreciable rainfall will likely lead to widespread Critically receptive fuels by then. ..Elliott.. 05/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z A persistent mean mid/upper-level trough is forecast across the western United States from Day 3/Monday through at least Day 8/Saturday. This will promote a multi-day period of enhanced mid-level west to southwesterly flow across the Southwest and a prolonged period of dry/breezy surface conditions. While the latest fuel guidance suggests fuels across much of this region are only marginal receptive, owing in part to recent precipitation, several days of additional curing over the next few days and into next week will likely allow fuels to become critically dry. ...Day 3/Monday... Meteorologically, fire weather conditions may peak on Day 3/Monday as a strong mid-level jet overspreads the Southwest. Widespread critical RH values are expected with strong/gusty surface winds. While Critical fire weather conditions are possible across a rather broad area, primary uncertainty remains the impact of recent rainfall on fuels across portions of central/eastern New Mexico and the general state of fuels across Arizona. Have introduced 70% probabilities for Critical Fire weather conditions where confidence in critical conditions is greatest owing to less recent rainfall. The Critical area may need to be refined/expanded as fuel guidance is updated. Additionally, while a few isolated dry thunderstorms are possible (mainly across portions of Arizona), confidence is currently too low to introduce probabilities. ...Day 4/Tuesday... Mid-level flow will shift eastward into the Plains by Day 4/Tuesday with the rear portion of the enhanced mid-level flow remaining over portions of New Mexico and Arizona. Near critical fire weather conditions appear likely, as dry air and breezy surface winds overlap increasingly dry fuels. While Critical fire weather conditions are possible, uncertainty regarding fuel recovery after recent rainfall across much of central New Mexico precludes increasing the critical probabilities. ...Day 5/Wednesday - Day 6/Thursday... Fire weather conditions may decrease some on Day 5/Wednesday and Day 6/Thursday as the stronger mid-level flow moves out of the Southwest. Nevertheless, continued enhanced mid-level flow will promote Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions each day across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Day 7/Friday - Day 8/Saturday... While exact details remain unclear this far in advance, ensemble guidance suggests that mid-level flow will strengthen again late this week and into next weekend across portions of the Southwest. This may lead to another prolonged period of Critical fire weather conditions over a broad area, especially as several days of dry/breezy conditions and no appreciable rainfall will likely lead to widespread Critically receptive fuels by then. ..Elliott.. 05/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z A persistent mean mid/upper-level trough is forecast across the western United States from Day 3/Monday through at least Day 8/Saturday. This will promote a multi-day period of enhanced mid-level west to southwesterly flow across the Southwest and a prolonged period of dry/breezy surface conditions. While the latest fuel guidance suggests fuels across much of this region are only marginal receptive, owing in part to recent precipitation, several days of additional curing over the next few days and into next week will likely allow fuels to become critically dry. ...Day 3/Monday... Meteorologically, fire weather conditions may peak on Day 3/Monday as a strong mid-level jet overspreads the Southwest. Widespread critical RH values are expected with strong/gusty surface winds. While Critical fire weather conditions are possible across a rather broad area, primary uncertainty remains the impact of recent rainfall on fuels across portions of central/eastern New Mexico and the general state of fuels across Arizona. Have introduced 70% probabilities for Critical Fire weather conditions where confidence in critical conditions is greatest owing to less recent rainfall. The Critical area may need to be refined/expanded as fuel guidance is updated. Additionally, while a few isolated dry thunderstorms are possible (mainly across portions of Arizona), confidence is currently too low to introduce probabilities. ...Day 4/Tuesday... Mid-level flow will shift eastward into the Plains by Day 4/Tuesday with the rear portion of the enhanced mid-level flow remaining over portions of New Mexico and Arizona. Near critical fire weather conditions appear likely, as dry air and breezy surface winds overlap increasingly dry fuels. While Critical fire weather conditions are possible, uncertainty regarding fuel recovery after recent rainfall across much of central New Mexico precludes increasing the critical probabilities. ...Day 5/Wednesday - Day 6/Thursday... Fire weather conditions may decrease some on Day 5/Wednesday and Day 6/Thursday as the stronger mid-level flow moves out of the Southwest. Nevertheless, continued enhanced mid-level flow will promote Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions each day across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Day 7/Friday - Day 8/Saturday... While exact details remain unclear this far in advance, ensemble guidance suggests that mid-level flow will strengthen again late this week and into next weekend across portions of the Southwest. This may lead to another prolonged period of Critical fire weather conditions over a broad area, especially as several days of dry/breezy conditions and no appreciable rainfall will likely lead to widespread Critically receptive fuels by then. ..Elliott.. 05/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z A persistent mean mid/upper-level trough is forecast across the western United States from Day 3/Monday through at least Day 8/Saturday. This will promote a multi-day period of enhanced mid-level west to southwesterly flow across the Southwest and a prolonged period of dry/breezy surface conditions. While the latest fuel guidance suggests fuels across much of this region are only marginal receptive, owing in part to recent precipitation, several days of additional curing over the next few days and into next week will likely allow fuels to become critically dry. ...Day 3/Monday... Meteorologically, fire weather conditions may peak on Day 3/Monday as a strong mid-level jet overspreads the Southwest. Widespread critical RH values are expected with strong/gusty surface winds. While Critical fire weather conditions are possible across a rather broad area, primary uncertainty remains the impact of recent rainfall on fuels across portions of central/eastern New Mexico and the general state of fuels across Arizona. Have introduced 70% probabilities for Critical Fire weather conditions where confidence in critical conditions is greatest owing to less recent rainfall. The Critical area may need to be refined/expanded as fuel guidance is updated. Additionally, while a few isolated dry thunderstorms are possible (mainly across portions of Arizona), confidence is currently too low to introduce probabilities. ...Day 4/Tuesday... Mid-level flow will shift eastward into the Plains by Day 4/Tuesday with the rear portion of the enhanced mid-level flow remaining over portions of New Mexico and Arizona. Near critical fire weather conditions appear likely, as dry air and breezy surface winds overlap increasingly dry fuels. While Critical fire weather conditions are possible, uncertainty regarding fuel recovery after recent rainfall across much of central New Mexico precludes increasing the critical probabilities. ...Day 5/Wednesday - Day 6/Thursday... Fire weather conditions may decrease some on Day 5/Wednesday and Day 6/Thursday as the stronger mid-level flow moves out of the Southwest. Nevertheless, continued enhanced mid-level flow will promote Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions each day across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Day 7/Friday - Day 8/Saturday... While exact details remain unclear this far in advance, ensemble guidance suggests that mid-level flow will strengthen again late this week and into next weekend across portions of the Southwest. This may lead to another prolonged period of Critical fire weather conditions over a broad area, especially as several days of dry/breezy conditions and no appreciable rainfall will likely lead to widespread Critically receptive fuels by then. ..Elliott.. 05/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z A persistent mean mid/upper-level trough is forecast across the western United States from Day 3/Monday through at least Day 8/Saturday. This will promote a multi-day period of enhanced mid-level west to southwesterly flow across the Southwest and a prolonged period of dry/breezy surface conditions. While the latest fuel guidance suggests fuels across much of this region are only marginal receptive, owing in part to recent precipitation, several days of additional curing over the next few days and into next week will likely allow fuels to become critically dry. ...Day 3/Monday... Meteorologically, fire weather conditions may peak on Day 3/Monday as a strong mid-level jet overspreads the Southwest. Widespread critical RH values are expected with strong/gusty surface winds. While Critical fire weather conditions are possible across a rather broad area, primary uncertainty remains the impact of recent rainfall on fuels across portions of central/eastern New Mexico and the general state of fuels across Arizona. Have introduced 70% probabilities for Critical Fire weather conditions where confidence in critical conditions is greatest owing to less recent rainfall. The Critical area may need to be refined/expanded as fuel guidance is updated. Additionally, while a few isolated dry thunderstorms are possible (mainly across portions of Arizona), confidence is currently too low to introduce probabilities. ...Day 4/Tuesday... Mid-level flow will shift eastward into the Plains by Day 4/Tuesday with the rear portion of the enhanced mid-level flow remaining over portions of New Mexico and Arizona. Near critical fire weather conditions appear likely, as dry air and breezy surface winds overlap increasingly dry fuels. While Critical fire weather conditions are possible, uncertainty regarding fuel recovery after recent rainfall across much of central New Mexico precludes increasing the critical probabilities. ...Day 5/Wednesday - Day 6/Thursday... Fire weather conditions may decrease some on Day 5/Wednesday and Day 6/Thursday as the stronger mid-level flow moves out of the Southwest. Nevertheless, continued enhanced mid-level flow will promote Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions each day across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Day 7/Friday - Day 8/Saturday... While exact details remain unclear this far in advance, ensemble guidance suggests that mid-level flow will strengthen again late this week and into next weekend across portions of the Southwest. This may lead to another prolonged period of Critical fire weather conditions over a broad area, especially as several days of dry/breezy conditions and no appreciable rainfall will likely lead to widespread Critically receptive fuels by then. ..Elliott.. 05/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z A persistent mean mid/upper-level trough is forecast across the western United States from Day 3/Monday through at least Day 8/Saturday. This will promote a multi-day period of enhanced mid-level west to southwesterly flow across the Southwest and a prolonged period of dry/breezy surface conditions. While the latest fuel guidance suggests fuels across much of this region are only marginal receptive, owing in part to recent precipitation, several days of additional curing over the next few days and into next week will likely allow fuels to become critically dry. ...Day 3/Monday... Meteorologically, fire weather conditions may peak on Day 3/Monday as a strong mid-level jet overspreads the Southwest. Widespread critical RH values are expected with strong/gusty surface winds. While Critical fire weather conditions are possible across a rather broad area, primary uncertainty remains the impact of recent rainfall on fuels across portions of central/eastern New Mexico and the general state of fuels across Arizona. Have introduced 70% probabilities for Critical Fire weather conditions where confidence in critical conditions is greatest owing to less recent rainfall. The Critical area may need to be refined/expanded as fuel guidance is updated. Additionally, while a few isolated dry thunderstorms are possible (mainly across portions of Arizona), confidence is currently too low to introduce probabilities. ...Day 4/Tuesday... Mid-level flow will shift eastward into the Plains by Day 4/Tuesday with the rear portion of the enhanced mid-level flow remaining over portions of New Mexico and Arizona. Near critical fire weather conditions appear likely, as dry air and breezy surface winds overlap increasingly dry fuels. While Critical fire weather conditions are possible, uncertainty regarding fuel recovery after recent rainfall across much of central New Mexico precludes increasing the critical probabilities. ...Day 5/Wednesday - Day 6/Thursday... Fire weather conditions may decrease some on Day 5/Wednesday and Day 6/Thursday as the stronger mid-level flow moves out of the Southwest. Nevertheless, continued enhanced mid-level flow will promote Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions each day across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Day 7/Friday - Day 8/Saturday... While exact details remain unclear this far in advance, ensemble guidance suggests that mid-level flow will strengthen again late this week and into next weekend across portions of the Southwest. This may lead to another prolonged period of Critical fire weather conditions over a broad area, especially as several days of dry/breezy conditions and no appreciable rainfall will likely lead to widespread Critically receptive fuels by then. ..Elliott.. 05/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z A persistent mean mid/upper-level trough is forecast across the western United States from Day 3/Monday through at least Day 8/Saturday. This will promote a multi-day period of enhanced mid-level west to southwesterly flow across the Southwest and a prolonged period of dry/breezy surface conditions. While the latest fuel guidance suggests fuels across much of this region are only marginal receptive, owing in part to recent precipitation, several days of additional curing over the next few days and into next week will likely allow fuels to become critically dry. ...Day 3/Monday... Meteorologically, fire weather conditions may peak on Day 3/Monday as a strong mid-level jet overspreads the Southwest. Widespread critical RH values are expected with strong/gusty surface winds. While Critical fire weather conditions are possible across a rather broad area, primary uncertainty remains the impact of recent rainfall on fuels across portions of central/eastern New Mexico and the general state of fuels across Arizona. Have introduced 70% probabilities for Critical Fire weather conditions where confidence in critical conditions is greatest owing to less recent rainfall. The Critical area may need to be refined/expanded as fuel guidance is updated. Additionally, while a few isolated dry thunderstorms are possible (mainly across portions of Arizona), confidence is currently too low to introduce probabilities. ...Day 4/Tuesday... Mid-level flow will shift eastward into the Plains by Day 4/Tuesday with the rear portion of the enhanced mid-level flow remaining over portions of New Mexico and Arizona. Near critical fire weather conditions appear likely, as dry air and breezy surface winds overlap increasingly dry fuels. While Critical fire weather conditions are possible, uncertainty regarding fuel recovery after recent rainfall across much of central New Mexico precludes increasing the critical probabilities. ...Day 5/Wednesday - Day 6/Thursday... Fire weather conditions may decrease some on Day 5/Wednesday and Day 6/Thursday as the stronger mid-level flow moves out of the Southwest. Nevertheless, continued enhanced mid-level flow will promote Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions each day across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Day 7/Friday - Day 8/Saturday... While exact details remain unclear this far in advance, ensemble guidance suggests that mid-level flow will strengthen again late this week and into next weekend across portions of the Southwest. This may lead to another prolonged period of Critical fire weather conditions over a broad area, especially as several days of dry/breezy conditions and no appreciable rainfall will likely lead to widespread Critically receptive fuels by then. ..Elliott.. 05/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more