Aggregator

WW 0266 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 266 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW OKC TO 25 S PNC TO 15 W TUL TO 5 NNW TUL TO 30 NE TUL TO 5 SW JLN. ..GOSS..05/20/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 266 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC001-021-035-037-041-081-083-091-097-101-103-107-111-115-119- 131-143-145-200940- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CHEROKEE CRAIG CREEK DELAWARE LINCOLN LOGAN MCINTOSH MAYES MUSKOGEE NOBLE OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE OTTAWA PAYNE ROGERS TULSA WAGONER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for damaging gusts and hail will be possible from central Texas into the Ohio Valley vicinity on Wednesday. ...Southern MO/IL into western NY... An upper shortwave trough over the northern/central Plains will shift east to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Wednesday. This feature, coupled with a southeast-sagging surface front, and convectively enhanced vorticity maxima floating through southwesterly deep-layer flow, will focus thunderstorm potential from portions of southern MO/IL northeast toward the Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes vicinity. Ahead of the surface boundary, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place (surface dew points in the mid/upper 60s F). Modest midlevel lapse rates around 7 C/km will also overlap this moist boundary layer, aiding in moderate destabilization (MLCAPE to 2000 J/kg). Vertical shear will be modest with northeast extent from IN into western NY, but isolated to widely scattered storms capable of damaging gusts and perhaps some hail will be possible from afternoon into the evening. A corridor of somewhat greater potential may develop across southern MO/IL during the late afternoon into the nighttime hours. Instability and vertical shear will likely be stronger here. Better-organized diurnal convection could congeal into an MCS during the nighttime hours. However, confidence in this scenario is low, precluding higher probabilities at this time. ...OK/TX into AR... An area of broad southwesterly flow will persist across the southern Plains to the Mid-South. A surface front will extend northeast from a low over west-central TX into southern MO. Additionally, a dryline will extend southward from the TX low to the Rio Grande. The evolution of the surface front is a bit uncertain, but this boundary, along with the dryline, may focus thunderstorm development. Capping may suppress convection, but an increasing low-level jet by evening could result in scattered thunderstorms. This activity would pose a risk for hail and damaging gusts, with more conditional tornado risk given capping concerns. One or more clusters or an MCS may spread southeast with time during the evening/overnight. ..Leitman.. 05/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for damaging gusts and hail will be possible from central Texas into the Ohio Valley vicinity on Wednesday. ...Southern MO/IL into western NY... An upper shortwave trough over the northern/central Plains will shift east to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Wednesday. This feature, coupled with a southeast-sagging surface front, and convectively enhanced vorticity maxima floating through southwesterly deep-layer flow, will focus thunderstorm potential from portions of southern MO/IL northeast toward the Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes vicinity. Ahead of the surface boundary, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place (surface dew points in the mid/upper 60s F). Modest midlevel lapse rates around 7 C/km will also overlap this moist boundary layer, aiding in moderate destabilization (MLCAPE to 2000 J/kg). Vertical shear will be modest with northeast extent from IN into western NY, but isolated to widely scattered storms capable of damaging gusts and perhaps some hail will be possible from afternoon into the evening. A corridor of somewhat greater potential may develop across southern MO/IL during the late afternoon into the nighttime hours. Instability and vertical shear will likely be stronger here. Better-organized diurnal convection could congeal into an MCS during the nighttime hours. However, confidence in this scenario is low, precluding higher probabilities at this time. ...OK/TX into AR... An area of broad southwesterly flow will persist across the southern Plains to the Mid-South. A surface front will extend northeast from a low over west-central TX into southern MO. Additionally, a dryline will extend southward from the TX low to the Rio Grande. The evolution of the surface front is a bit uncertain, but this boundary, along with the dryline, may focus thunderstorm development. Capping may suppress convection, but an increasing low-level jet by evening could result in scattered thunderstorms. This activity would pose a risk for hail and damaging gusts, with more conditional tornado risk given capping concerns. One or more clusters or an MCS may spread southeast with time during the evening/overnight. ..Leitman.. 05/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for damaging gusts and hail will be possible from central Texas into the Ohio Valley vicinity on Wednesday. ...Southern MO/IL into western NY... An upper shortwave trough over the northern/central Plains will shift east to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Wednesday. This feature, coupled with a southeast-sagging surface front, and convectively enhanced vorticity maxima floating through southwesterly deep-layer flow, will focus thunderstorm potential from portions of southern MO/IL northeast toward the Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes vicinity. Ahead of the surface boundary, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place (surface dew points in the mid/upper 60s F). Modest midlevel lapse rates around 7 C/km will also overlap this moist boundary layer, aiding in moderate destabilization (MLCAPE to 2000 J/kg). Vertical shear will be modest with northeast extent from IN into western NY, but isolated to widely scattered storms capable of damaging gusts and perhaps some hail will be possible from afternoon into the evening. A corridor of somewhat greater potential may develop across southern MO/IL during the late afternoon into the nighttime hours. Instability and vertical shear will likely be stronger here. Better-organized diurnal convection could congeal into an MCS during the nighttime hours. However, confidence in this scenario is low, precluding higher probabilities at this time. ...OK/TX into AR... An area of broad southwesterly flow will persist across the southern Plains to the Mid-South. A surface front will extend northeast from a low over west-central TX into southern MO. Additionally, a dryline will extend southward from the TX low to the Rio Grande. The evolution of the surface front is a bit uncertain, but this boundary, along with the dryline, may focus thunderstorm development. Capping may suppress convection, but an increasing low-level jet by evening could result in scattered thunderstorms. This activity would pose a risk for hail and damaging gusts, with more conditional tornado risk given capping concerns. One or more clusters or an MCS may spread southeast with time during the evening/overnight. ..Leitman.. 05/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for damaging gusts and hail will be possible from central Texas into the Ohio Valley vicinity on Wednesday. ...Southern MO/IL into western NY... An upper shortwave trough over the northern/central Plains will shift east to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Wednesday. This feature, coupled with a southeast-sagging surface front, and convectively enhanced vorticity maxima floating through southwesterly deep-layer flow, will focus thunderstorm potential from portions of southern MO/IL northeast toward the Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes vicinity. Ahead of the surface boundary, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place (surface dew points in the mid/upper 60s F). Modest midlevel lapse rates around 7 C/km will also overlap this moist boundary layer, aiding in moderate destabilization (MLCAPE to 2000 J/kg). Vertical shear will be modest with northeast extent from IN into western NY, but isolated to widely scattered storms capable of damaging gusts and perhaps some hail will be possible from afternoon into the evening. A corridor of somewhat greater potential may develop across southern MO/IL during the late afternoon into the nighttime hours. Instability and vertical shear will likely be stronger here. Better-organized diurnal convection could congeal into an MCS during the nighttime hours. However, confidence in this scenario is low, precluding higher probabilities at this time. ...OK/TX into AR... An area of broad southwesterly flow will persist across the southern Plains to the Mid-South. A surface front will extend northeast from a low over west-central TX into southern MO. Additionally, a dryline will extend southward from the TX low to the Rio Grande. The evolution of the surface front is a bit uncertain, but this boundary, along with the dryline, may focus thunderstorm development. Capping may suppress convection, but an increasing low-level jet by evening could result in scattered thunderstorms. This activity would pose a risk for hail and damaging gusts, with more conditional tornado risk given capping concerns. One or more clusters or an MCS may spread southeast with time during the evening/overnight. ..Leitman.. 05/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for damaging gusts and hail will be possible from central Texas into the Ohio Valley vicinity on Wednesday. ...Southern MO/IL into western NY... An upper shortwave trough over the northern/central Plains will shift east to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Wednesday. This feature, coupled with a southeast-sagging surface front, and convectively enhanced vorticity maxima floating through southwesterly deep-layer flow, will focus thunderstorm potential from portions of southern MO/IL northeast toward the Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes vicinity. Ahead of the surface boundary, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place (surface dew points in the mid/upper 60s F). Modest midlevel lapse rates around 7 C/km will also overlap this moist boundary layer, aiding in moderate destabilization (MLCAPE to 2000 J/kg). Vertical shear will be modest with northeast extent from IN into western NY, but isolated to widely scattered storms capable of damaging gusts and perhaps some hail will be possible from afternoon into the evening. A corridor of somewhat greater potential may develop across southern MO/IL during the late afternoon into the nighttime hours. Instability and vertical shear will likely be stronger here. Better-organized diurnal convection could congeal into an MCS during the nighttime hours. However, confidence in this scenario is low, precluding higher probabilities at this time. ...OK/TX into AR... An area of broad southwesterly flow will persist across the southern Plains to the Mid-South. A surface front will extend northeast from a low over west-central TX into southern MO. Additionally, a dryline will extend southward from the TX low to the Rio Grande. The evolution of the surface front is a bit uncertain, but this boundary, along with the dryline, may focus thunderstorm development. Capping may suppress convection, but an increasing low-level jet by evening could result in scattered thunderstorms. This activity would pose a risk for hail and damaging gusts, with more conditional tornado risk given capping concerns. One or more clusters or an MCS may spread southeast with time during the evening/overnight. ..Leitman.. 05/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for damaging gusts and hail will be possible from central Texas into the Ohio Valley vicinity on Wednesday. ...Southern MO/IL into western NY... An upper shortwave trough over the northern/central Plains will shift east to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Wednesday. This feature, coupled with a southeast-sagging surface front, and convectively enhanced vorticity maxima floating through southwesterly deep-layer flow, will focus thunderstorm potential from portions of southern MO/IL northeast toward the Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes vicinity. Ahead of the surface boundary, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place (surface dew points in the mid/upper 60s F). Modest midlevel lapse rates around 7 C/km will also overlap this moist boundary layer, aiding in moderate destabilization (MLCAPE to 2000 J/kg). Vertical shear will be modest with northeast extent from IN into western NY, but isolated to widely scattered storms capable of damaging gusts and perhaps some hail will be possible from afternoon into the evening. A corridor of somewhat greater potential may develop across southern MO/IL during the late afternoon into the nighttime hours. Instability and vertical shear will likely be stronger here. Better-organized diurnal convection could congeal into an MCS during the nighttime hours. However, confidence in this scenario is low, precluding higher probabilities at this time. ...OK/TX into AR... An area of broad southwesterly flow will persist across the southern Plains to the Mid-South. A surface front will extend northeast from a low over west-central TX into southern MO. Additionally, a dryline will extend southward from the TX low to the Rio Grande. The evolution of the surface front is a bit uncertain, but this boundary, along with the dryline, may focus thunderstorm development. Capping may suppress convection, but an increasing low-level jet by evening could result in scattered thunderstorms. This activity would pose a risk for hail and damaging gusts, with more conditional tornado risk given capping concerns. One or more clusters or an MCS may spread southeast with time during the evening/overnight. ..Leitman.. 05/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for damaging gusts and hail will be possible from central Texas into the Ohio Valley vicinity on Wednesday. ...Southern MO/IL into western NY... An upper shortwave trough over the northern/central Plains will shift east to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Wednesday. This feature, coupled with a southeast-sagging surface front, and convectively enhanced vorticity maxima floating through southwesterly deep-layer flow, will focus thunderstorm potential from portions of southern MO/IL northeast toward the Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes vicinity. Ahead of the surface boundary, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place (surface dew points in the mid/upper 60s F). Modest midlevel lapse rates around 7 C/km will also overlap this moist boundary layer, aiding in moderate destabilization (MLCAPE to 2000 J/kg). Vertical shear will be modest with northeast extent from IN into western NY, but isolated to widely scattered storms capable of damaging gusts and perhaps some hail will be possible from afternoon into the evening. A corridor of somewhat greater potential may develop across southern MO/IL during the late afternoon into the nighttime hours. Instability and vertical shear will likely be stronger here. Better-organized diurnal convection could congeal into an MCS during the nighttime hours. However, confidence in this scenario is low, precluding higher probabilities at this time. ...OK/TX into AR... An area of broad southwesterly flow will persist across the southern Plains to the Mid-South. A surface front will extend northeast from a low over west-central TX into southern MO. Additionally, a dryline will extend southward from the TX low to the Rio Grande. The evolution of the surface front is a bit uncertain, but this boundary, along with the dryline, may focus thunderstorm development. Capping may suppress convection, but an increasing low-level jet by evening could result in scattered thunderstorms. This activity would pose a risk for hail and damaging gusts, with more conditional tornado risk given capping concerns. One or more clusters or an MCS may spread southeast with time during the evening/overnight. ..Leitman.. 05/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for damaging gusts and hail will be possible from central Texas into the Ohio Valley vicinity on Wednesday. ...Southern MO/IL into western NY... An upper shortwave trough over the northern/central Plains will shift east to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Wednesday. This feature, coupled with a southeast-sagging surface front, and convectively enhanced vorticity maxima floating through southwesterly deep-layer flow, will focus thunderstorm potential from portions of southern MO/IL northeast toward the Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes vicinity. Ahead of the surface boundary, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place (surface dew points in the mid/upper 60s F). Modest midlevel lapse rates around 7 C/km will also overlap this moist boundary layer, aiding in moderate destabilization (MLCAPE to 2000 J/kg). Vertical shear will be modest with northeast extent from IN into western NY, but isolated to widely scattered storms capable of damaging gusts and perhaps some hail will be possible from afternoon into the evening. A corridor of somewhat greater potential may develop across southern MO/IL during the late afternoon into the nighttime hours. Instability and vertical shear will likely be stronger here. Better-organized diurnal convection could congeal into an MCS during the nighttime hours. However, confidence in this scenario is low, precluding higher probabilities at this time. ...OK/TX into AR... An area of broad southwesterly flow will persist across the southern Plains to the Mid-South. A surface front will extend northeast from a low over west-central TX into southern MO. Additionally, a dryline will extend southward from the TX low to the Rio Grande. The evolution of the surface front is a bit uncertain, but this boundary, along with the dryline, may focus thunderstorm development. Capping may suppress convection, but an increasing low-level jet by evening could result in scattered thunderstorms. This activity would pose a risk for hail and damaging gusts, with more conditional tornado risk given capping concerns. One or more clusters or an MCS may spread southeast with time during the evening/overnight. ..Leitman.. 05/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for damaging gusts and hail will be possible from central Texas into the Ohio Valley vicinity on Wednesday. ...Southern MO/IL into western NY... An upper shortwave trough over the northern/central Plains will shift east to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Wednesday. This feature, coupled with a southeast-sagging surface front, and convectively enhanced vorticity maxima floating through southwesterly deep-layer flow, will focus thunderstorm potential from portions of southern MO/IL northeast toward the Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes vicinity. Ahead of the surface boundary, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place (surface dew points in the mid/upper 60s F). Modest midlevel lapse rates around 7 C/km will also overlap this moist boundary layer, aiding in moderate destabilization (MLCAPE to 2000 J/kg). Vertical shear will be modest with northeast extent from IN into western NY, but isolated to widely scattered storms capable of damaging gusts and perhaps some hail will be possible from afternoon into the evening. A corridor of somewhat greater potential may develop across southern MO/IL during the late afternoon into the nighttime hours. Instability and vertical shear will likely be stronger here. Better-organized diurnal convection could congeal into an MCS during the nighttime hours. However, confidence in this scenario is low, precluding higher probabilities at this time. ...OK/TX into AR... An area of broad southwesterly flow will persist across the southern Plains to the Mid-South. A surface front will extend northeast from a low over west-central TX into southern MO. Additionally, a dryline will extend southward from the TX low to the Rio Grande. The evolution of the surface front is a bit uncertain, but this boundary, along with the dryline, may focus thunderstorm development. Capping may suppress convection, but an increasing low-level jet by evening could result in scattered thunderstorms. This activity would pose a risk for hail and damaging gusts, with more conditional tornado risk given capping concerns. One or more clusters or an MCS may spread southeast with time during the evening/overnight. ..Leitman.. 05/20/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...Synopsis... Moderate mid-level flow will remain across the Southwest on Tuesday with single-digit relative humidity across New Mexico. As deep mixing develops during the afternoon, some of this stronger flow will mix to the surface. In addition, a secondary lee cyclone is expected to develop in the TX/OK Panhandle vicinity. This will also aid in stronger surface winds. 15 to 25 mph sustained surface winds are expected across much of New Mexico. Locally critical conditions are probable and a Critical delineation may be needed at a later time, but for now, it is unclear where within the broader Elevated area, the greater threat may be. ..Bentley.. 05/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...Synopsis... Moderate mid-level flow will remain across the Southwest on Tuesday with single-digit relative humidity across New Mexico. As deep mixing develops during the afternoon, some of this stronger flow will mix to the surface. In addition, a secondary lee cyclone is expected to develop in the TX/OK Panhandle vicinity. This will also aid in stronger surface winds. 15 to 25 mph sustained surface winds are expected across much of New Mexico. Locally critical conditions are probable and a Critical delineation may be needed at a later time, but for now, it is unclear where within the broader Elevated area, the greater threat may be. ..Bentley.. 05/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...Synopsis... Moderate mid-level flow will remain across the Southwest on Tuesday with single-digit relative humidity across New Mexico. As deep mixing develops during the afternoon, some of this stronger flow will mix to the surface. In addition, a secondary lee cyclone is expected to develop in the TX/OK Panhandle vicinity. This will also aid in stronger surface winds. 15 to 25 mph sustained surface winds are expected across much of New Mexico. Locally critical conditions are probable and a Critical delineation may be needed at a later time, but for now, it is unclear where within the broader Elevated area, the greater threat may be. ..Bentley.. 05/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...Synopsis... Moderate mid-level flow will remain across the Southwest on Tuesday with single-digit relative humidity across New Mexico. As deep mixing develops during the afternoon, some of this stronger flow will mix to the surface. In addition, a secondary lee cyclone is expected to develop in the TX/OK Panhandle vicinity. This will also aid in stronger surface winds. 15 to 25 mph sustained surface winds are expected across much of New Mexico. Locally critical conditions are probable and a Critical delineation may be needed at a later time, but for now, it is unclear where within the broader Elevated area, the greater threat may be. ..Bentley.. 05/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...Synopsis... Moderate mid-level flow will remain across the Southwest on Tuesday with single-digit relative humidity across New Mexico. As deep mixing develops during the afternoon, some of this stronger flow will mix to the surface. In addition, a secondary lee cyclone is expected to develop in the TX/OK Panhandle vicinity. This will also aid in stronger surface winds. 15 to 25 mph sustained surface winds are expected across much of New Mexico. Locally critical conditions are probable and a Critical delineation may be needed at a later time, but for now, it is unclear where within the broader Elevated area, the greater threat may be. ..Bentley.. 05/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...Synopsis... Moderate mid-level flow will remain across the Southwest on Tuesday with single-digit relative humidity across New Mexico. As deep mixing develops during the afternoon, some of this stronger flow will mix to the surface. In addition, a secondary lee cyclone is expected to develop in the TX/OK Panhandle vicinity. This will also aid in stronger surface winds. 15 to 25 mph sustained surface winds are expected across much of New Mexico. Locally critical conditions are probable and a Critical delineation may be needed at a later time, but for now, it is unclear where within the broader Elevated area, the greater threat may be. ..Bentley.. 05/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...Synopsis... Moderate mid-level flow will remain across the Southwest on Tuesday with single-digit relative humidity across New Mexico. As deep mixing develops during the afternoon, some of this stronger flow will mix to the surface. In addition, a secondary lee cyclone is expected to develop in the TX/OK Panhandle vicinity. This will also aid in stronger surface winds. 15 to 25 mph sustained surface winds are expected across much of New Mexico. Locally critical conditions are probable and a Critical delineation may be needed at a later time, but for now, it is unclear where within the broader Elevated area, the greater threat may be. ..Bentley.. 05/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...Synopsis... Moderate mid-level flow will remain across the Southwest on Tuesday with single-digit relative humidity across New Mexico. As deep mixing develops during the afternoon, some of this stronger flow will mix to the surface. In addition, a secondary lee cyclone is expected to develop in the TX/OK Panhandle vicinity. This will also aid in stronger surface winds. 15 to 25 mph sustained surface winds are expected across much of New Mexico. Locally critical conditions are probable and a Critical delineation may be needed at a later time, but for now, it is unclear where within the broader Elevated area, the greater threat may be. ..Bentley.. 05/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...Synopsis... Moderate mid-level flow will remain across the Southwest on Tuesday with single-digit relative humidity across New Mexico. As deep mixing develops during the afternoon, some of this stronger flow will mix to the surface. In addition, a secondary lee cyclone is expected to develop in the TX/OK Panhandle vicinity. This will also aid in stronger surface winds. 15 to 25 mph sustained surface winds are expected across much of New Mexico. Locally critical conditions are probable and a Critical delineation may be needed at a later time, but for now, it is unclear where within the broader Elevated area, the greater threat may be. ..Bentley.. 05/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level jet streak will overspread the Southwest this afternoon as a mid-level trough amplifies across the western CONUS. A deeply mixed boundary layer is expected across Arizona and New Mexico with temperatures in the 90s. Some of this stronger flow will mix to the surface amid the deep boundary layer. In addition, lee cyclogenesis will tighten the pressure gradient in the region and aid in stronger surface winds. Sustained surface winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected across New Mexico with some sustained winds over 30 mph in northern Arizona. Single-digit relative humidity is also expected across most of the region. Fuels have started to dry to critical levels across portions of eastern and northern Arizona. Therefore, a Critical delineation is warranted. ..Bentley.. 05/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more