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WW 0268 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 268 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE AZO TO 25 WSW LAN TO 35 WSW MBS TO 30 WNW MBS TO 25 S HTL. WW 268 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 210200Z. ..BENTLEY..05/21/24 ATTN...WFO...GRR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 268 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC025-037-045-057-065-075-210200- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALHOUN CLINTON EATON GRATIOT INGHAM JACKSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0268 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 268 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE AZO TO 25 WSW LAN TO 35 WSW MBS TO 30 WNW MBS TO 25 S HTL. WW 268 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 210200Z. ..BENTLEY..05/21/24 ATTN...WFO...GRR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 268 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC025-037-045-057-065-075-210200- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALHOUN CLINTON EATON GRATIOT INGHAM JACKSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0268 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 268 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE AZO TO 25 WSW LAN TO 35 WSW MBS TO 30 WNW MBS TO 25 S HTL. WW 268 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 210200Z. ..BENTLEY..05/21/24 ATTN...WFO...GRR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 268 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC025-037-045-057-065-075-210200- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALHOUN CLINTON EATON GRATIOT INGHAM JACKSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0855 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWESTERN IOWA AND FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0855 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0554 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Areas affected...Northwestern Iowa and far southern Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 202254Z - 210100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is likely over the next 1-2 hours across portions of northwestern/northern IA and southern MN. Large hail up to 1 to 1.75 inches in diameter and wind gusts exceeding 60 mph may accompany a few of the thunderstorms. DISCUSSION...Recent satellite imagery indicates some upstream mid-level ascent, likely via PCVA, is beginning to impact locations east of the MO river valley over a stationary boundary. Elevated showers have developed over northern NE, and the cumulus field along and just north of the boundary is becoming agitated across northwestern IA and southern MN. The convective environment within this region is characterized by moderate instability, modest deep layer shear, and steep mid level lapse rates. As the evening progresses, a few organized updrafts may manage to develop with a threat of large hail and locally damaging wind gusts. There is some uncertainty regarding severe thunderstorm coverage across this region, however, so trends will be watched for a possible weather watch. ..Barnes/Thompson.. 05/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... LAT...LON 42149452 42029497 41939575 42029627 42739661 43419632 43809554 44109495 44349428 44459386 44389296 44469241 44259207 43809196 42869309 42499374 42149452 Read more

MD 0856 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0856 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0606 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Areas affected...parts of south central and southeastern Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 202306Z - 210100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Scattered strong thunderstorm development is initiating across the region and probably will persist into mid/late evening. A few supercells are possible, primarily posing a risk for large hail. DISCUSSION...Deepening convective development is underway where boundary-layer destabilization has become maximized in a corridor from near the Hastings/Kearney vicinity into the Greater Omaha area. This is in advance of a slowly southeastward advancing cold front, where lower/mid-tropospheric warming across much of the central Great Plains may be offsetting weakening of inhibition associated with insolation. Still, roughly to the north of the Kansas/Nebraska border, temperatures in the 700-500 mb layer remain cooler relative to areas to south, and it appears inhibition is weak enough to allow for intensifying thunderstorm development during the next few hours. Mid/upper support for upward vertical motion remains uncertain, but strong southwesterly flow in mid/upper levels is contributing to sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell development. With mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, stronger storms may pose an initial risk for severe hail. Although boundary-layer cooling will contribute to increasing inhibition into and after sunset, modest strengthening of southerly 850 mb flow and associated warm advection may maintain stronger cells into mid/late evening. ..Kerr.. 05/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID... LAT...LON 40829950 41519778 41609607 40759563 40129661 39959878 40219958 40829950 Read more

WW 0268 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 268 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE AZO TO 25 WSW LAN TO 35 WSW MBS TO 30 WNW MBS TO 25 S HTL. WW 268 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 210200Z. ..BENTLEY..05/21/24 ATTN...WFO...GRR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 268 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC025-037-045-057-065-075-210200- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALHOUN CLINTON EATON GRATIOT INGHAM JACKSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 268 SEVERE TSTM MI LM 202040Z - 210200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 268 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 440 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and Central Lower Michigan Lake Michigan * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 440 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms currently moving across Lake Michigan will spread into Lower Michigan soon. A few of the storms may pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and hail through early evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles northeast of Muskegon MI to 15 miles southeast of Kalamazoo MI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 267... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0272 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 272 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BENTLEY..05/21/24 ATTN...WFO...FSD...DMX...ARX...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 272 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC021-033-035-041-047-059-063-067-081-089-091-093-109-131-141- 143-147-149-151-161-167-189-193-195-197-210140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUENA VISTA CERRO GORDO CHEROKEE CLAY CRAWFORD DICKINSON EMMET FLOYD HANCOCK HOWARD HUMBOLDT IDA KOSSUTH MITCHELL O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PALO ALTO PLYMOUTH POCAHONTAS SAC SIOUX WINNEBAGO WOODBURY WORTH WRIGHT MNC013-039-043-045-047-063-091-099-109-147-157-161-165-210140- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLUE EARTH DODGE FARIBAULT FILLMORE FREEBORN JACKSON MARTIN MOWER OLMSTED STEELE WABASHA WASECA Read more

WW 0272 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 272 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BENTLEY..05/21/24 ATTN...WFO...FSD...DMX...ARX...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 272 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC021-033-035-041-047-059-063-067-081-089-091-093-109-131-141- 143-147-149-151-161-167-189-193-195-197-210140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUENA VISTA CERRO GORDO CHEROKEE CLAY CRAWFORD DICKINSON EMMET FLOYD HANCOCK HOWARD HUMBOLDT IDA KOSSUTH MITCHELL O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PALO ALTO PLYMOUTH POCAHONTAS SAC SIOUX WINNEBAGO WOODBURY WORTH WRIGHT MNC013-039-043-045-047-063-091-099-109-147-157-161-165-210140- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLUE EARTH DODGE FARIBAULT FILLMORE FREEBORN JACKSON MARTIN MOWER OLMSTED STEELE WABASHA WASECA Read more

WW 0269 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0269 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0270 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0270 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0271 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0271 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0856 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0856 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0606 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Areas affected...parts of south central and southeastern Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 202306Z - 210100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Scattered strong thunderstorm development is initiating across the region and probably will persist into mid/late evening. A few supercells are possible, primarily posing a risk for large hail. DISCUSSION...Deepening convective development is underway where boundary-layer destabilization has become maximized in a corridor from near the Hastings/Kearney vicinity into the Greater Omaha area. This is in advance of a slowly southeastward advancing cold front, where lower/mid-tropospheric warming across much of the central Great Plains may be offsetting weakening of inhibition associated with insolation. Still, roughly to the north of the Kansas/Nebraska border, temperatures in the 700-500 mb layer remain cooler relative to areas to south, and it appears inhibition is weak enough to allow for intensifying thunderstorm development during the next few hours. Mid/upper support for upward vertical motion remains uncertain, but strong southwesterly flow in mid/upper levels is contributing to sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell development. With mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, stronger storms may pose an initial risk for severe hail. Although boundary-layer cooling will contribute to increasing inhibition into and after sunset, modest strengthening of southerly 850 mb flow and associated warm advection may maintain stronger cells into mid/late evening. ..Kerr.. 05/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID... LAT...LON 40829950 41519778 41609607 40759563 40129661 39959878 40219958 40829950 Read more

MD 0855 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWESTERN IOWA AND FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0855 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0554 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Areas affected...Northwestern Iowa and far southern Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 202254Z - 210100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is likely over the next 1-2 hours across portions of northwestern/northern IA and southern MN. Large hail up to 1 to 1.75 inches in diameter and wind gusts exceeding 60 mph may accompany a few of the thunderstorms. DISCUSSION...Recent satellite imagery indicates some upstream mid-level ascent, likely via PCVA, is beginning to impact locations east of the MO river valley over a stationary boundary. Elevated showers have developed over northern NE, and the cumulus field along and just north of the boundary is becoming agitated across northwestern IA and southern MN. The convective environment within this region is characterized by moderate instability, modest deep layer shear, and steep mid level lapse rates. As the evening progresses, a few organized updrafts may manage to develop with a threat of large hail and locally damaging wind gusts. There is some uncertainty regarding severe thunderstorm coverage across this region, however, so trends will be watched for a possible weather watch. ..Barnes/Thompson.. 05/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... LAT...LON 42149452 42029497 41939575 42029627 42739661 43419632 43809554 44109495 44349428 44459386 44389296 44469241 44259207 43809196 42869309 42499374 42149452 Read more

WW 0272 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0272 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 272 SEVERE TSTM IA MN 202345Z - 210500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 272 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 645 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest and north central Iowa South central and southeast Minnesota * Effective this Monday night from 645 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this evening along a slow moving front across southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. The storm environment will favor a mix of multicell clusters and storms with supercell structure capable of producing large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter and damaging outflow gusts up to 60 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles east of Rochester MN to 50 miles west of Storm Lake IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 268...WW 269...WW 270...WW 271... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27020. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0271 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0271 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 271 SEVERE TSTM IA NE 202330Z - 210500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 271 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 630 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme west central Iowa South central into east central and southeast Nebraska * Effective this Monday night from 630 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form this evening, within an environment supporting supercells. Large hail of 1-2 inches in diameter and outflow gusts of 60-70 mph will be the main threats through early tonight. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles west northwest of Kearney NE to 45 miles northeast of Lincoln NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 268...WW 269...WW 270... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24020. ...Thompson Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 202311
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon May 20 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Blake

MD 0854 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHEAST WYOMING...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0854 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Areas affected...Northeast Colorado...southeast Wyoming...southwest Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 202047Z - 202315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Initially high-based convection within the Front Range into southeast Wyoming will eventually spread east and intensify. Primary hazards will be severe wind gusts and large/very-large hail. A mesoscale corridor with greater tornado risk will in northeast Colorado and vicinity within the moisture axis. A watch will eventually be needed this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Convection continues to develop along the Front Range as upslope flow continues this afternoon. A weak thunderstorm has formed recently south of Denver in drier air. The exact timing of storm greater initiation/intensification is a bit unclear, but the approach of the mid-level ascent from the Four Corners region should foster additional development within the next 2-3 hours or so. Further, the lee trough to the east should also deepen and pull richer surface moisture (upper 50s to low 60s F, as observed in upstream in Kansas) into northeast Colorado and southwest Nebraska. The current thinking is that storms will initiate within the Front Range as well as southeast Wyoming. Storms will initially be high-based and primarily capable of severe wind gusts and large hail. Storm intensification can be expected as they encounter richer moisture to the east. A greater tornado threat will exist with supercells moving within the moisture axis in northeast Colorado and nearby vicinity. Here, backed surface winds will combine with an eventual modest increase in easterly 850 mb winds to increase low-level hodograph curvature. Very-large hail will also become more probable as supercell storms intensify farther east. ..Wendt/Hart.. 05/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 39750224 39500376 40130466 41140504 41630438 41680241 41230173 40350176 39750224 Read more