Aggregator

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible from the late afternoon into the evening across the Mid-Missouri Valley, and also from eastern Montana to the western/central Dakotas. A few tornadoes could occur in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, with isolated significant severe hail and wind possible across parts of the northern Plains. ...Northern Plains... A pronounced upper trough/low will progress eastward across the northern Rockies/High Plains and western Canada through the period. A related mid-level jet will begin to overspread the northern High Plains later this afternoon. This feature will contribute to strengthening flow aloft and increasing deep-layer shear to support organized severe thunderstorms. At the surface, a low should consolidate by early evening over eastern MT and the western Dakotas, with a cold front forecast to sweep eastward over the northern Plains this evening and overnight. Near and east of the surface low, around 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop through peak heating across parts of the western/central Dakotas, as a modestly moist low-level airmass continues to advect northward. Current expectations are for high-based thunderstorms to initially develop early this afternoon across parts of central MT as large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough overspreads this region. A well-mixed boundary layer combined with sufficient instability should encourage severe downdraft winds with any cluster that can form/persist with eastward extent. Isolated significant severe winds up to around 75 mph appear possible. The Slight Risk has been expanded westward some into more of central MT to account for this scenario. A somewhat separate area of convection may develop across the Bighorns of northern WY, and subsequently spread eastward across western/central SD through this evening with a threat for mainly severe/damaging winds. Any sustained supercells that can develop should pose a threat for large to very large hail given the favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment present. This appears most probable across parts of western ND this evening, although there is still some uncertainty regarding what the dominant convective mode will be. A tornado or two may also occur across western ND and vicinity with any supercell that persists this evening as 0-1 km SRH gradually increases in tandem with a strengthening low-level jet. ...Mid Missouri Valley/Central Plains... Morning visible satellite and radar imagery show multiple MCVs across the central Plains and Mid MO Valley associated with prior convection. A shortwave trough will move eastward across these regions through the day, with modestly enhanced mid-level winds overspreading parts of NE/IA and vicinity. At the surface, a warm front will attempt to lift slowly northward over this region as well, but outflow from ongoing elevated convection in northern MO may slow its progress to some extent. This outflow boundary may also severe as an effective warm front and thunderstorm initiation zone this afternoon. Regardless, a gradually destabilizing airmass is anticipated across eastern NE through mid/late afternoon as filtered daytime heating occurs. Most guidance continues to suggest that around 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE will develop in a narrow corridor along/near the warm front by 20-21Z, with steep mid-level lapse rates aiding in this development. Although deep-layer shear does not appear overly strong, it should be sufficient for a few supercells to develop initially. In addition to a threat for large hail with these supercells, a few tornadoes may also occur given the presence of a 30-35 kt southerly low-level jet and enhanced low-level SRH in the vicinity of the warm front. Some upscale growth could occur this evening, with a potentially greater severe/damaging wind threat with any small cluster that can persist into IA and perhaps southern MN. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon through early evening along/east of a weak surface trough/dryline across parts of the southern High Plains, including the OK/TX Panhandles southward to west TX. Weak to moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear should support some convective organization. Isolated severe wind gusts will be possible with a generally hot and well-mixed boundary layer, along with some potential for hail with the more robust cores. ..Gleason/Goss.. 06/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible from the late afternoon into the evening across the Mid-Missouri Valley, and also from eastern Montana to the western/central Dakotas. A few tornadoes could occur in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, with isolated significant severe hail and wind possible across parts of the northern Plains. ...Northern Plains... A pronounced upper trough/low will progress eastward across the northern Rockies/High Plains and western Canada through the period. A related mid-level jet will begin to overspread the northern High Plains later this afternoon. This feature will contribute to strengthening flow aloft and increasing deep-layer shear to support organized severe thunderstorms. At the surface, a low should consolidate by early evening over eastern MT and the western Dakotas, with a cold front forecast to sweep eastward over the northern Plains this evening and overnight. Near and east of the surface low, around 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop through peak heating across parts of the western/central Dakotas, as a modestly moist low-level airmass continues to advect northward. Current expectations are for high-based thunderstorms to initially develop early this afternoon across parts of central MT as large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough overspreads this region. A well-mixed boundary layer combined with sufficient instability should encourage severe downdraft winds with any cluster that can form/persist with eastward extent. Isolated significant severe winds up to around 75 mph appear possible. The Slight Risk has been expanded westward some into more of central MT to account for this scenario. A somewhat separate area of convection may develop across the Bighorns of northern WY, and subsequently spread eastward across western/central SD through this evening with a threat for mainly severe/damaging winds. Any sustained supercells that can develop should pose a threat for large to very large hail given the favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment present. This appears most probable across parts of western ND this evening, although there is still some uncertainty regarding what the dominant convective mode will be. A tornado or two may also occur across western ND and vicinity with any supercell that persists this evening as 0-1 km SRH gradually increases in tandem with a strengthening low-level jet. ...Mid Missouri Valley/Central Plains... Morning visible satellite and radar imagery show multiple MCVs across the central Plains and Mid MO Valley associated with prior convection. A shortwave trough will move eastward across these regions through the day, with modestly enhanced mid-level winds overspreading parts of NE/IA and vicinity. At the surface, a warm front will attempt to lift slowly northward over this region as well, but outflow from ongoing elevated convection in northern MO may slow its progress to some extent. This outflow boundary may also severe as an effective warm front and thunderstorm initiation zone this afternoon. Regardless, a gradually destabilizing airmass is anticipated across eastern NE through mid/late afternoon as filtered daytime heating occurs. Most guidance continues to suggest that around 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE will develop in a narrow corridor along/near the warm front by 20-21Z, with steep mid-level lapse rates aiding in this development. Although deep-layer shear does not appear overly strong, it should be sufficient for a few supercells to develop initially. In addition to a threat for large hail with these supercells, a few tornadoes may also occur given the presence of a 30-35 kt southerly low-level jet and enhanced low-level SRH in the vicinity of the warm front. Some upscale growth could occur this evening, with a potentially greater severe/damaging wind threat with any small cluster that can persist into IA and perhaps southern MN. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon through early evening along/east of a weak surface trough/dryline across parts of the southern High Plains, including the OK/TX Panhandles southward to west TX. Weak to moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear should support some convective organization. Isolated severe wind gusts will be possible with a generally hot and well-mixed boundary layer, along with some potential for hail with the more robust cores. ..Gleason/Goss.. 06/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible from the late afternoon into the evening across the Mid-Missouri Valley, and also from eastern Montana to the western/central Dakotas. A few tornadoes could occur in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, with isolated significant severe hail and wind possible across parts of the northern Plains. ...Northern Plains... A pronounced upper trough/low will progress eastward across the northern Rockies/High Plains and western Canada through the period. A related mid-level jet will begin to overspread the northern High Plains later this afternoon. This feature will contribute to strengthening flow aloft and increasing deep-layer shear to support organized severe thunderstorms. At the surface, a low should consolidate by early evening over eastern MT and the western Dakotas, with a cold front forecast to sweep eastward over the northern Plains this evening and overnight. Near and east of the surface low, around 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop through peak heating across parts of the western/central Dakotas, as a modestly moist low-level airmass continues to advect northward. Current expectations are for high-based thunderstorms to initially develop early this afternoon across parts of central MT as large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough overspreads this region. A well-mixed boundary layer combined with sufficient instability should encourage severe downdraft winds with any cluster that can form/persist with eastward extent. Isolated significant severe winds up to around 75 mph appear possible. The Slight Risk has been expanded westward some into more of central MT to account for this scenario. A somewhat separate area of convection may develop across the Bighorns of northern WY, and subsequently spread eastward across western/central SD through this evening with a threat for mainly severe/damaging winds. Any sustained supercells that can develop should pose a threat for large to very large hail given the favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment present. This appears most probable across parts of western ND this evening, although there is still some uncertainty regarding what the dominant convective mode will be. A tornado or two may also occur across western ND and vicinity with any supercell that persists this evening as 0-1 km SRH gradually increases in tandem with a strengthening low-level jet. ...Mid Missouri Valley/Central Plains... Morning visible satellite and radar imagery show multiple MCVs across the central Plains and Mid MO Valley associated with prior convection. A shortwave trough will move eastward across these regions through the day, with modestly enhanced mid-level winds overspreading parts of NE/IA and vicinity. At the surface, a warm front will attempt to lift slowly northward over this region as well, but outflow from ongoing elevated convection in northern MO may slow its progress to some extent. This outflow boundary may also severe as an effective warm front and thunderstorm initiation zone this afternoon. Regardless, a gradually destabilizing airmass is anticipated across eastern NE through mid/late afternoon as filtered daytime heating occurs. Most guidance continues to suggest that around 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE will develop in a narrow corridor along/near the warm front by 20-21Z, with steep mid-level lapse rates aiding in this development. Although deep-layer shear does not appear overly strong, it should be sufficient for a few supercells to develop initially. In addition to a threat for large hail with these supercells, a few tornadoes may also occur given the presence of a 30-35 kt southerly low-level jet and enhanced low-level SRH in the vicinity of the warm front. Some upscale growth could occur this evening, with a potentially greater severe/damaging wind threat with any small cluster that can persist into IA and perhaps southern MN. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon through early evening along/east of a weak surface trough/dryline across parts of the southern High Plains, including the OK/TX Panhandles southward to west TX. Weak to moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear should support some convective organization. Isolated severe wind gusts will be possible with a generally hot and well-mixed boundary layer, along with some potential for hail with the more robust cores. ..Gleason/Goss.. 06/15/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z The forecast is largely on track. The Elevated risk area was expanded into portions of southeast Utah to account for expected drier and breezier conditions with somewhat receptive fuels in the area. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 06/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and attendant belt of enhanced west to southwesterly flow moving across the Cascades into the Northern Rockies will bring potential for breezy/dry downslope flow in the lee of the Cascades across western Washington/northern Oregon within the Columbia Basin on Saturday. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-25 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph amid drying fuels. Locally Critical fire weather concerns will be possible, though Critical winds appear too localized to include any areas at this time. Additionally, some Elevated fire weather conditions are likely in the Snake River Plain in Idaho where sustained winds around 30-35 mph will overlap 15-20% RH and modestly receptive fuels. Ahead of the western US trough, a surface trough across southern Nevada into western Arizona will bring breezy/dry conditions across southern Nevada into southwestern Utah and northwestern Arizona, where relative humidity reductions into the teens to single digits will overlap sustained southwesterly flow around 10-15 mph within critically dry fuels. Given sub-critical winds, an Elevated delineation covers this threat well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z The forecast is largely on track. The Elevated risk area was expanded into portions of southeast Utah to account for expected drier and breezier conditions with somewhat receptive fuels in the area. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 06/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and attendant belt of enhanced west to southwesterly flow moving across the Cascades into the Northern Rockies will bring potential for breezy/dry downslope flow in the lee of the Cascades across western Washington/northern Oregon within the Columbia Basin on Saturday. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-25 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph amid drying fuels. Locally Critical fire weather concerns will be possible, though Critical winds appear too localized to include any areas at this time. Additionally, some Elevated fire weather conditions are likely in the Snake River Plain in Idaho where sustained winds around 30-35 mph will overlap 15-20% RH and modestly receptive fuels. Ahead of the western US trough, a surface trough across southern Nevada into western Arizona will bring breezy/dry conditions across southern Nevada into southwestern Utah and northwestern Arizona, where relative humidity reductions into the teens to single digits will overlap sustained southwesterly flow around 10-15 mph within critically dry fuels. Given sub-critical winds, an Elevated delineation covers this threat well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z The forecast is largely on track. The Elevated risk area was expanded into portions of southeast Utah to account for expected drier and breezier conditions with somewhat receptive fuels in the area. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 06/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and attendant belt of enhanced west to southwesterly flow moving across the Cascades into the Northern Rockies will bring potential for breezy/dry downslope flow in the lee of the Cascades across western Washington/northern Oregon within the Columbia Basin on Saturday. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-25 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph amid drying fuels. Locally Critical fire weather concerns will be possible, though Critical winds appear too localized to include any areas at this time. Additionally, some Elevated fire weather conditions are likely in the Snake River Plain in Idaho where sustained winds around 30-35 mph will overlap 15-20% RH and modestly receptive fuels. Ahead of the western US trough, a surface trough across southern Nevada into western Arizona will bring breezy/dry conditions across southern Nevada into southwestern Utah and northwestern Arizona, where relative humidity reductions into the teens to single digits will overlap sustained southwesterly flow around 10-15 mph within critically dry fuels. Given sub-critical winds, an Elevated delineation covers this threat well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z The forecast is largely on track. The Elevated risk area was expanded into portions of southeast Utah to account for expected drier and breezier conditions with somewhat receptive fuels in the area. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 06/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and attendant belt of enhanced west to southwesterly flow moving across the Cascades into the Northern Rockies will bring potential for breezy/dry downslope flow in the lee of the Cascades across western Washington/northern Oregon within the Columbia Basin on Saturday. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-25 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph amid drying fuels. Locally Critical fire weather concerns will be possible, though Critical winds appear too localized to include any areas at this time. Additionally, some Elevated fire weather conditions are likely in the Snake River Plain in Idaho where sustained winds around 30-35 mph will overlap 15-20% RH and modestly receptive fuels. Ahead of the western US trough, a surface trough across southern Nevada into western Arizona will bring breezy/dry conditions across southern Nevada into southwestern Utah and northwestern Arizona, where relative humidity reductions into the teens to single digits will overlap sustained southwesterly flow around 10-15 mph within critically dry fuels. Given sub-critical winds, an Elevated delineation covers this threat well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z The forecast is largely on track. The Elevated risk area was expanded into portions of southeast Utah to account for expected drier and breezier conditions with somewhat receptive fuels in the area. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 06/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and attendant belt of enhanced west to southwesterly flow moving across the Cascades into the Northern Rockies will bring potential for breezy/dry downslope flow in the lee of the Cascades across western Washington/northern Oregon within the Columbia Basin on Saturday. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-25 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph amid drying fuels. Locally Critical fire weather concerns will be possible, though Critical winds appear too localized to include any areas at this time. Additionally, some Elevated fire weather conditions are likely in the Snake River Plain in Idaho where sustained winds around 30-35 mph will overlap 15-20% RH and modestly receptive fuels. Ahead of the western US trough, a surface trough across southern Nevada into western Arizona will bring breezy/dry conditions across southern Nevada into southwestern Utah and northwestern Arizona, where relative humidity reductions into the teens to single digits will overlap sustained southwesterly flow around 10-15 mph within critically dry fuels. Given sub-critical winds, an Elevated delineation covers this threat well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z The forecast is largely on track. The Elevated risk area was expanded into portions of southeast Utah to account for expected drier and breezier conditions with somewhat receptive fuels in the area. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 06/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and attendant belt of enhanced west to southwesterly flow moving across the Cascades into the Northern Rockies will bring potential for breezy/dry downslope flow in the lee of the Cascades across western Washington/northern Oregon within the Columbia Basin on Saturday. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-25 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph amid drying fuels. Locally Critical fire weather concerns will be possible, though Critical winds appear too localized to include any areas at this time. Additionally, some Elevated fire weather conditions are likely in the Snake River Plain in Idaho where sustained winds around 30-35 mph will overlap 15-20% RH and modestly receptive fuels. Ahead of the western US trough, a surface trough across southern Nevada into western Arizona will bring breezy/dry conditions across southern Nevada into southwestern Utah and northwestern Arizona, where relative humidity reductions into the teens to single digits will overlap sustained southwesterly flow around 10-15 mph within critically dry fuels. Given sub-critical winds, an Elevated delineation covers this threat well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z The forecast is largely on track. The Elevated risk area was expanded into portions of southeast Utah to account for expected drier and breezier conditions with somewhat receptive fuels in the area. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 06/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and attendant belt of enhanced west to southwesterly flow moving across the Cascades into the Northern Rockies will bring potential for breezy/dry downslope flow in the lee of the Cascades across western Washington/northern Oregon within the Columbia Basin on Saturday. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-25 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph amid drying fuels. Locally Critical fire weather concerns will be possible, though Critical winds appear too localized to include any areas at this time. Additionally, some Elevated fire weather conditions are likely in the Snake River Plain in Idaho where sustained winds around 30-35 mph will overlap 15-20% RH and modestly receptive fuels. Ahead of the western US trough, a surface trough across southern Nevada into western Arizona will bring breezy/dry conditions across southern Nevada into southwestern Utah and northwestern Arizona, where relative humidity reductions into the teens to single digits will overlap sustained southwesterly flow around 10-15 mph within critically dry fuels. Given sub-critical winds, an Elevated delineation covers this threat well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z The forecast is largely on track. The Elevated risk area was expanded into portions of southeast Utah to account for expected drier and breezier conditions with somewhat receptive fuels in the area. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 06/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and attendant belt of enhanced west to southwesterly flow moving across the Cascades into the Northern Rockies will bring potential for breezy/dry downslope flow in the lee of the Cascades across western Washington/northern Oregon within the Columbia Basin on Saturday. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-25 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph amid drying fuels. Locally Critical fire weather concerns will be possible, though Critical winds appear too localized to include any areas at this time. Additionally, some Elevated fire weather conditions are likely in the Snake River Plain in Idaho where sustained winds around 30-35 mph will overlap 15-20% RH and modestly receptive fuels. Ahead of the western US trough, a surface trough across southern Nevada into western Arizona will bring breezy/dry conditions across southern Nevada into southwestern Utah and northwestern Arizona, where relative humidity reductions into the teens to single digits will overlap sustained southwesterly flow around 10-15 mph within critically dry fuels. Given sub-critical winds, an Elevated delineation covers this threat well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z The forecast is largely on track. The Elevated risk area was expanded into portions of southeast Utah to account for expected drier and breezier conditions with somewhat receptive fuels in the area. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 06/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and attendant belt of enhanced west to southwesterly flow moving across the Cascades into the Northern Rockies will bring potential for breezy/dry downslope flow in the lee of the Cascades across western Washington/northern Oregon within the Columbia Basin on Saturday. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-25 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph amid drying fuels. Locally Critical fire weather concerns will be possible, though Critical winds appear too localized to include any areas at this time. Additionally, some Elevated fire weather conditions are likely in the Snake River Plain in Idaho where sustained winds around 30-35 mph will overlap 15-20% RH and modestly receptive fuels. Ahead of the western US trough, a surface trough across southern Nevada into western Arizona will bring breezy/dry conditions across southern Nevada into southwestern Utah and northwestern Arizona, where relative humidity reductions into the teens to single digits will overlap sustained southwesterly flow around 10-15 mph within critically dry fuels. Given sub-critical winds, an Elevated delineation covers this threat well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z The forecast is largely on track. The Elevated risk area was expanded into portions of southeast Utah to account for expected drier and breezier conditions with somewhat receptive fuels in the area. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 06/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and attendant belt of enhanced west to southwesterly flow moving across the Cascades into the Northern Rockies will bring potential for breezy/dry downslope flow in the lee of the Cascades across western Washington/northern Oregon within the Columbia Basin on Saturday. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-25 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph amid drying fuels. Locally Critical fire weather concerns will be possible, though Critical winds appear too localized to include any areas at this time. Additionally, some Elevated fire weather conditions are likely in the Snake River Plain in Idaho where sustained winds around 30-35 mph will overlap 15-20% RH and modestly receptive fuels. Ahead of the western US trough, a surface trough across southern Nevada into western Arizona will bring breezy/dry conditions across southern Nevada into southwestern Utah and northwestern Arizona, where relative humidity reductions into the teens to single digits will overlap sustained southwesterly flow around 10-15 mph within critically dry fuels. Given sub-critical winds, an Elevated delineation covers this threat well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z The forecast is largely on track. The Elevated risk area was expanded into portions of southeast Utah to account for expected drier and breezier conditions with somewhat receptive fuels in the area. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 06/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and attendant belt of enhanced west to southwesterly flow moving across the Cascades into the Northern Rockies will bring potential for breezy/dry downslope flow in the lee of the Cascades across western Washington/northern Oregon within the Columbia Basin on Saturday. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-25 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph amid drying fuels. Locally Critical fire weather concerns will be possible, though Critical winds appear too localized to include any areas at this time. Additionally, some Elevated fire weather conditions are likely in the Snake River Plain in Idaho where sustained winds around 30-35 mph will overlap 15-20% RH and modestly receptive fuels. Ahead of the western US trough, a surface trough across southern Nevada into western Arizona will bring breezy/dry conditions across southern Nevada into southwestern Utah and northwestern Arizona, where relative humidity reductions into the teens to single digits will overlap sustained southwesterly flow around 10-15 mph within critically dry fuels. Given sub-critical winds, an Elevated delineation covers this threat well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z The forecast is largely on track. The Elevated risk area was expanded into portions of southeast Utah to account for expected drier and breezier conditions with somewhat receptive fuels in the area. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 06/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and attendant belt of enhanced west to southwesterly flow moving across the Cascades into the Northern Rockies will bring potential for breezy/dry downslope flow in the lee of the Cascades across western Washington/northern Oregon within the Columbia Basin on Saturday. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-25 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph amid drying fuels. Locally Critical fire weather concerns will be possible, though Critical winds appear too localized to include any areas at this time. Additionally, some Elevated fire weather conditions are likely in the Snake River Plain in Idaho where sustained winds around 30-35 mph will overlap 15-20% RH and modestly receptive fuels. Ahead of the western US trough, a surface trough across southern Nevada into western Arizona will bring breezy/dry conditions across southern Nevada into southwestern Utah and northwestern Arizona, where relative humidity reductions into the teens to single digits will overlap sustained southwesterly flow around 10-15 mph within critically dry fuels. Given sub-critical winds, an Elevated delineation covers this threat well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MO VALLEY AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible from the late afternoon into the evening across the Mid-Missouri Valley and also from eastern Montana to central North Dakota. A couple of tornadoes could occur in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, with isolated significant severe hail and wind possible across parts of the northern Great Plains. ...Eastern Nebraska to Iowa/northwest Missouri/southern Minnesota... An MCS has largely weakened and trended downscale overnight as it has progressed eastward across western Iowa/northwest Missouri, with outflow extending from these areas west-southeastward into northeast Kansas in proximity to a synoptic stationary/warm front. At least one MCV is evident across the Siouxland vicinity early this morning, with an additional MCV across west-central Nebraska. The aforementioned front will move north-northeastward toward parts of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa today. Diurnal heating will support moderate to strong destabilization, both within a richly moist environment near/north of the front, and within a somewhat hotter and more well-mixed environment south/southwest of the front. As a mid/upper-level trough (with multiple embedded vorticity maxima) approaches the Middle Missouri Valley, and MLCINH diminishes during the afternoon, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible, especially across east/southeast Nebraska and western Iowa and perhaps far northwest Missouri. Along and immediately north of the front, favorable instability, seasonably strong MCV-aided low-level flow, and a favorably veered wind profile in the lowest 3 km AGL will be favorable for tornadic supercells. Rather modest/somewhat backed mid-level flow may result in a tendency for a cluster or complex HP storm mode with time. Any supercells that can be sustained within this regime could pose a tornado threat, in addition to hail and damaging-wind potential. Some modest upscale growth will be possible later in the storm evolution, which could result in a threat for damaging winds and possibly a line-embedded tornado or two spreading east-northeastward into parts of central Iowa and southern Minnesota this evening. ...Northern Great Plains including Eastern Montana and Dakotas... A strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies later today, and approach the northern High Plains tonight. A surface cyclone will deepen near the Montana/Wyoming border vicinity during the day, and then move northeastward across the western Dakotas vicinity this evening. Near and east of the surface cyclone, MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1500-2500 J/kg range from parts of eastern Montana into the Dakotas, while stronger deep-layer flow/shear attendant to the approaching shortwave will begin impinging on the warm sector by late afternoon into the evening. Storm development is expected by late afternoon from eastern portions of Montana and Wyoming into the western Dakotas, with development of one or more intense storm clusters possible by early evening. Large to very large hail could accompany any sustained supercells within this regime, especially from eastern Montana into western North Dakota. Isolated significant severe gusts will also be possible, especially in areas where stronger heating/mixing occurs, and also in association with any more organized quasi-linear upscale growth. A tornado or two could also occur, especially if any supercell across western North Dakota can be sustained into the evening, when an increase in low-level flow/SRH is expected. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop from mid-afternoon through early evening across parts of the southern High Plains, including the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles southward to the Permian Basin/Transpecos. Moderate buoyancy and marginally favorable deep-layer shear could support a couple of modestly organized storms. Isolated severe wind gusts will be possible within a generally hot and well-mixed environment, along with some potential for hail. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MO VALLEY AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible from the late afternoon into the evening across the Mid-Missouri Valley and also from eastern Montana to central North Dakota. A couple of tornadoes could occur in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, with isolated significant severe hail and wind possible across parts of the northern Great Plains. ...Eastern Nebraska to Iowa/northwest Missouri/southern Minnesota... An MCS has largely weakened and trended downscale overnight as it has progressed eastward across western Iowa/northwest Missouri, with outflow extending from these areas west-southeastward into northeast Kansas in proximity to a synoptic stationary/warm front. At least one MCV is evident across the Siouxland vicinity early this morning, with an additional MCV across west-central Nebraska. The aforementioned front will move north-northeastward toward parts of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa today. Diurnal heating will support moderate to strong destabilization, both within a richly moist environment near/north of the front, and within a somewhat hotter and more well-mixed environment south/southwest of the front. As a mid/upper-level trough (with multiple embedded vorticity maxima) approaches the Middle Missouri Valley, and MLCINH diminishes during the afternoon, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible, especially across east/southeast Nebraska and western Iowa and perhaps far northwest Missouri. Along and immediately north of the front, favorable instability, seasonably strong MCV-aided low-level flow, and a favorably veered wind profile in the lowest 3 km AGL will be favorable for tornadic supercells. Rather modest/somewhat backed mid-level flow may result in a tendency for a cluster or complex HP storm mode with time. Any supercells that can be sustained within this regime could pose a tornado threat, in addition to hail and damaging-wind potential. Some modest upscale growth will be possible later in the storm evolution, which could result in a threat for damaging winds and possibly a line-embedded tornado or two spreading east-northeastward into parts of central Iowa and southern Minnesota this evening. ...Northern Great Plains including Eastern Montana and Dakotas... A strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies later today, and approach the northern High Plains tonight. A surface cyclone will deepen near the Montana/Wyoming border vicinity during the day, and then move northeastward across the western Dakotas vicinity this evening. Near and east of the surface cyclone, MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1500-2500 J/kg range from parts of eastern Montana into the Dakotas, while stronger deep-layer flow/shear attendant to the approaching shortwave will begin impinging on the warm sector by late afternoon into the evening. Storm development is expected by late afternoon from eastern portions of Montana and Wyoming into the western Dakotas, with development of one or more intense storm clusters possible by early evening. Large to very large hail could accompany any sustained supercells within this regime, especially from eastern Montana into western North Dakota. Isolated significant severe gusts will also be possible, especially in areas where stronger heating/mixing occurs, and also in association with any more organized quasi-linear upscale growth. A tornado or two could also occur, especially if any supercell across western North Dakota can be sustained into the evening, when an increase in low-level flow/SRH is expected. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop from mid-afternoon through early evening across parts of the southern High Plains, including the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles southward to the Permian Basin/Transpecos. Moderate buoyancy and marginally favorable deep-layer shear could support a couple of modestly organized storms. Isolated severe wind gusts will be possible within a generally hot and well-mixed environment, along with some potential for hail. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MO VALLEY AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible from the late afternoon into the evening across the Mid-Missouri Valley and also from eastern Montana to central North Dakota. A couple of tornadoes could occur in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, with isolated significant severe hail and wind possible across parts of the northern Great Plains. ...Eastern Nebraska to Iowa/northwest Missouri/southern Minnesota... An MCS has largely weakened and trended downscale overnight as it has progressed eastward across western Iowa/northwest Missouri, with outflow extending from these areas west-southeastward into northeast Kansas in proximity to a synoptic stationary/warm front. At least one MCV is evident across the Siouxland vicinity early this morning, with an additional MCV across west-central Nebraska. The aforementioned front will move north-northeastward toward parts of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa today. Diurnal heating will support moderate to strong destabilization, both within a richly moist environment near/north of the front, and within a somewhat hotter and more well-mixed environment south/southwest of the front. As a mid/upper-level trough (with multiple embedded vorticity maxima) approaches the Middle Missouri Valley, and MLCINH diminishes during the afternoon, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible, especially across east/southeast Nebraska and western Iowa and perhaps far northwest Missouri. Along and immediately north of the front, favorable instability, seasonably strong MCV-aided low-level flow, and a favorably veered wind profile in the lowest 3 km AGL will be favorable for tornadic supercells. Rather modest/somewhat backed mid-level flow may result in a tendency for a cluster or complex HP storm mode with time. Any supercells that can be sustained within this regime could pose a tornado threat, in addition to hail and damaging-wind potential. Some modest upscale growth will be possible later in the storm evolution, which could result in a threat for damaging winds and possibly a line-embedded tornado or two spreading east-northeastward into parts of central Iowa and southern Minnesota this evening. ...Northern Great Plains including Eastern Montana and Dakotas... A strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies later today, and approach the northern High Plains tonight. A surface cyclone will deepen near the Montana/Wyoming border vicinity during the day, and then move northeastward across the western Dakotas vicinity this evening. Near and east of the surface cyclone, MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1500-2500 J/kg range from parts of eastern Montana into the Dakotas, while stronger deep-layer flow/shear attendant to the approaching shortwave will begin impinging on the warm sector by late afternoon into the evening. Storm development is expected by late afternoon from eastern portions of Montana and Wyoming into the western Dakotas, with development of one or more intense storm clusters possible by early evening. Large to very large hail could accompany any sustained supercells within this regime, especially from eastern Montana into western North Dakota. Isolated significant severe gusts will also be possible, especially in areas where stronger heating/mixing occurs, and also in association with any more organized quasi-linear upscale growth. A tornado or two could also occur, especially if any supercell across western North Dakota can be sustained into the evening, when an increase in low-level flow/SRH is expected. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop from mid-afternoon through early evening across parts of the southern High Plains, including the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles southward to the Permian Basin/Transpecos. Moderate buoyancy and marginally favorable deep-layer shear could support a couple of modestly organized storms. Isolated severe wind gusts will be possible within a generally hot and well-mixed environment, along with some potential for hail. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MO VALLEY AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible from the late afternoon into the evening across the Mid-Missouri Valley and also from eastern Montana to central North Dakota. A couple of tornadoes could occur in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, with isolated significant severe hail and wind possible across parts of the northern Great Plains. ...Eastern Nebraska to Iowa/northwest Missouri/southern Minnesota... An MCS has largely weakened and trended downscale overnight as it has progressed eastward across western Iowa/northwest Missouri, with outflow extending from these areas west-southeastward into northeast Kansas in proximity to a synoptic stationary/warm front. At least one MCV is evident across the Siouxland vicinity early this morning, with an additional MCV across west-central Nebraska. The aforementioned front will move north-northeastward toward parts of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa today. Diurnal heating will support moderate to strong destabilization, both within a richly moist environment near/north of the front, and within a somewhat hotter and more well-mixed environment south/southwest of the front. As a mid/upper-level trough (with multiple embedded vorticity maxima) approaches the Middle Missouri Valley, and MLCINH diminishes during the afternoon, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible, especially across east/southeast Nebraska and western Iowa and perhaps far northwest Missouri. Along and immediately north of the front, favorable instability, seasonably strong MCV-aided low-level flow, and a favorably veered wind profile in the lowest 3 km AGL will be favorable for tornadic supercells. Rather modest/somewhat backed mid-level flow may result in a tendency for a cluster or complex HP storm mode with time. Any supercells that can be sustained within this regime could pose a tornado threat, in addition to hail and damaging-wind potential. Some modest upscale growth will be possible later in the storm evolution, which could result in a threat for damaging winds and possibly a line-embedded tornado or two spreading east-northeastward into parts of central Iowa and southern Minnesota this evening. ...Northern Great Plains including Eastern Montana and Dakotas... A strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies later today, and approach the northern High Plains tonight. A surface cyclone will deepen near the Montana/Wyoming border vicinity during the day, and then move northeastward across the western Dakotas vicinity this evening. Near and east of the surface cyclone, MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1500-2500 J/kg range from parts of eastern Montana into the Dakotas, while stronger deep-layer flow/shear attendant to the approaching shortwave will begin impinging on the warm sector by late afternoon into the evening. Storm development is expected by late afternoon from eastern portions of Montana and Wyoming into the western Dakotas, with development of one or more intense storm clusters possible by early evening. Large to very large hail could accompany any sustained supercells within this regime, especially from eastern Montana into western North Dakota. Isolated significant severe gusts will also be possible, especially in areas where stronger heating/mixing occurs, and also in association with any more organized quasi-linear upscale growth. A tornado or two could also occur, especially if any supercell across western North Dakota can be sustained into the evening, when an increase in low-level flow/SRH is expected. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop from mid-afternoon through early evening across parts of the southern High Plains, including the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles southward to the Permian Basin/Transpecos. Moderate buoyancy and marginally favorable deep-layer shear could support a couple of modestly organized storms. Isolated severe wind gusts will be possible within a generally hot and well-mixed environment, along with some potential for hail. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/15/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151131
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jun 15 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly