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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH FL AND A SMALL PART OF SOUTH GA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST SC INTO SOUTHEAST NC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind are possible today across parts of south Georgia into north Florida. A few severe storms capable of producing damaging wind and hail are also possible across northeast South Carolina into southeast North Carolina. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper-level trough will persist over the eastern CONUS today. Within the large-scale trough, one shortwave will move southeastward from the mid MS Valley toward the Southeast, while an upstream shortwave trough (an attendant weak surface low) will move across the northern Great Plains and upper MS Valley. In the wake of extensive early morning convection, a cold front will move southward across parts of the Southeast and Texas. ...Parts of GA/north FL... An MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere across south GA/north FL, supported by favorable moisture/instability and strong westerly flow aloft. Some uncertainty remains regarding the timing and intensity of this system later this morning. While the GA/north FL area saw extensive convection and related outflow on Thursday, some recovery is possible prior to the arrival of the MCS, which will support potential for at least scattered damaging gusts before the MCS moves offshore. Depending on the timing and southeastward progression of the MCS, some redevelopment will be possible along the synoptic cold front during the afternoon, from southeast AL into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle vicinity. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection, and a couple stronger cells/clusters will be possible, with a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ...Parts of the Carolinas... With the early-day MCS to the south expected to move quickly offshore during the morning, there will be some opportunity for a corridor of moderate destabilization across part of the Carolinas in advance of the cold front. The favorably timed shortwave trough approaching from the northwest will support thunderstorm development along the front, with rather strong deep-layer flow/shear supporting storm organization. A couple of supercells and/or small bowing segments will be possible, with a primary threat of damaging gusts and hail. ...South-central TX... A cold front that will move through south-central TX is forecast to slow down through the day, before potentially stalling late tonight. Elevated convection may develop near/north of the front through the day. The intensity of any such convection remains uncertain, but elevated buoyancy may be sufficient to support a strong storm or two with isolated hail as the primary threat. ...Upper Midwest/Mississippi Valley... Low-topped convection may develop across parts of MN/WI this afternoon, in association with the shortwave trough moving southeastward across the region. Instability will be quite weak due to limited moisture, but relatively deep mixing and steep low-level lapse rates could support isolated gusty/damaging winds with the strongest convection. ..Dean/Squitieri.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH FL AND A SMALL PART OF SOUTH GA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST SC INTO SOUTHEAST NC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind are possible today across parts of south Georgia into north Florida. A few severe storms capable of producing damaging wind and hail are also possible across northeast South Carolina into southeast North Carolina. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper-level trough will persist over the eastern CONUS today. Within the large-scale trough, one shortwave will move southeastward from the mid MS Valley toward the Southeast, while an upstream shortwave trough (an attendant weak surface low) will move across the northern Great Plains and upper MS Valley. In the wake of extensive early morning convection, a cold front will move southward across parts of the Southeast and Texas. ...Parts of GA/north FL... An MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere across south GA/north FL, supported by favorable moisture/instability and strong westerly flow aloft. Some uncertainty remains regarding the timing and intensity of this system later this morning. While the GA/north FL area saw extensive convection and related outflow on Thursday, some recovery is possible prior to the arrival of the MCS, which will support potential for at least scattered damaging gusts before the MCS moves offshore. Depending on the timing and southeastward progression of the MCS, some redevelopment will be possible along the synoptic cold front during the afternoon, from southeast AL into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle vicinity. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection, and a couple stronger cells/clusters will be possible, with a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ...Parts of the Carolinas... With the early-day MCS to the south expected to move quickly offshore during the morning, there will be some opportunity for a corridor of moderate destabilization across part of the Carolinas in advance of the cold front. The favorably timed shortwave trough approaching from the northwest will support thunderstorm development along the front, with rather strong deep-layer flow/shear supporting storm organization. A couple of supercells and/or small bowing segments will be possible, with a primary threat of damaging gusts and hail. ...South-central TX... A cold front that will move through south-central TX is forecast to slow down through the day, before potentially stalling late tonight. Elevated convection may develop near/north of the front through the day. The intensity of any such convection remains uncertain, but elevated buoyancy may be sufficient to support a strong storm or two with isolated hail as the primary threat. ...Upper Midwest/Mississippi Valley... Low-topped convection may develop across parts of MN/WI this afternoon, in association with the shortwave trough moving southeastward across the region. Instability will be quite weak due to limited moisture, but relatively deep mixing and steep low-level lapse rates could support isolated gusty/damaging winds with the strongest convection. ..Dean/Squitieri.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH FL AND A SMALL PART OF SOUTH GA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST SC INTO SOUTHEAST NC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind are possible today across parts of south Georgia into north Florida. A few severe storms capable of producing damaging wind and hail are also possible across northeast South Carolina into southeast North Carolina. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper-level trough will persist over the eastern CONUS today. Within the large-scale trough, one shortwave will move southeastward from the mid MS Valley toward the Southeast, while an upstream shortwave trough (an attendant weak surface low) will move across the northern Great Plains and upper MS Valley. In the wake of extensive early morning convection, a cold front will move southward across parts of the Southeast and Texas. ...Parts of GA/north FL... An MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere across south GA/north FL, supported by favorable moisture/instability and strong westerly flow aloft. Some uncertainty remains regarding the timing and intensity of this system later this morning. While the GA/north FL area saw extensive convection and related outflow on Thursday, some recovery is possible prior to the arrival of the MCS, which will support potential for at least scattered damaging gusts before the MCS moves offshore. Depending on the timing and southeastward progression of the MCS, some redevelopment will be possible along the synoptic cold front during the afternoon, from southeast AL into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle vicinity. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection, and a couple stronger cells/clusters will be possible, with a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ...Parts of the Carolinas... With the early-day MCS to the south expected to move quickly offshore during the morning, there will be some opportunity for a corridor of moderate destabilization across part of the Carolinas in advance of the cold front. The favorably timed shortwave trough approaching from the northwest will support thunderstorm development along the front, with rather strong deep-layer flow/shear supporting storm organization. A couple of supercells and/or small bowing segments will be possible, with a primary threat of damaging gusts and hail. ...South-central TX... A cold front that will move through south-central TX is forecast to slow down through the day, before potentially stalling late tonight. Elevated convection may develop near/north of the front through the day. The intensity of any such convection remains uncertain, but elevated buoyancy may be sufficient to support a strong storm or two with isolated hail as the primary threat. ...Upper Midwest/Mississippi Valley... Low-topped convection may develop across parts of MN/WI this afternoon, in association with the shortwave trough moving southeastward across the region. Instability will be quite weak due to limited moisture, but relatively deep mixing and steep low-level lapse rates could support isolated gusty/damaging winds with the strongest convection. ..Dean/Squitieri.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH FL AND A SMALL PART OF SOUTH GA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST SC INTO SOUTHEAST NC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind are possible today across parts of south Georgia into north Florida. A few severe storms capable of producing damaging wind and hail are also possible across northeast South Carolina into southeast North Carolina. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper-level trough will persist over the eastern CONUS today. Within the large-scale trough, one shortwave will move southeastward from the mid MS Valley toward the Southeast, while an upstream shortwave trough (an attendant weak surface low) will move across the northern Great Plains and upper MS Valley. In the wake of extensive early morning convection, a cold front will move southward across parts of the Southeast and Texas. ...Parts of GA/north FL... An MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere across south GA/north FL, supported by favorable moisture/instability and strong westerly flow aloft. Some uncertainty remains regarding the timing and intensity of this system later this morning. While the GA/north FL area saw extensive convection and related outflow on Thursday, some recovery is possible prior to the arrival of the MCS, which will support potential for at least scattered damaging gusts before the MCS moves offshore. Depending on the timing and southeastward progression of the MCS, some redevelopment will be possible along the synoptic cold front during the afternoon, from southeast AL into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle vicinity. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection, and a couple stronger cells/clusters will be possible, with a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ...Parts of the Carolinas... With the early-day MCS to the south expected to move quickly offshore during the morning, there will be some opportunity for a corridor of moderate destabilization across part of the Carolinas in advance of the cold front. The favorably timed shortwave trough approaching from the northwest will support thunderstorm development along the front, with rather strong deep-layer flow/shear supporting storm organization. A couple of supercells and/or small bowing segments will be possible, with a primary threat of damaging gusts and hail. ...South-central TX... A cold front that will move through south-central TX is forecast to slow down through the day, before potentially stalling late tonight. Elevated convection may develop near/north of the front through the day. The intensity of any such convection remains uncertain, but elevated buoyancy may be sufficient to support a strong storm or two with isolated hail as the primary threat. ...Upper Midwest/Mississippi Valley... Low-topped convection may develop across parts of MN/WI this afternoon, in association with the shortwave trough moving southeastward across the region. Instability will be quite weak due to limited moisture, but relatively deep mixing and steep low-level lapse rates could support isolated gusty/damaging winds with the strongest convection. ..Dean/Squitieri.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH FL AND A SMALL PART OF SOUTH GA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST SC INTO SOUTHEAST NC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind are possible today across parts of south Georgia into north Florida. A few severe storms capable of producing damaging wind and hail are also possible across northeast South Carolina into southeast North Carolina. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper-level trough will persist over the eastern CONUS today. Within the large-scale trough, one shortwave will move southeastward from the mid MS Valley toward the Southeast, while an upstream shortwave trough (an attendant weak surface low) will move across the northern Great Plains and upper MS Valley. In the wake of extensive early morning convection, a cold front will move southward across parts of the Southeast and Texas. ...Parts of GA/north FL... An MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere across south GA/north FL, supported by favorable moisture/instability and strong westerly flow aloft. Some uncertainty remains regarding the timing and intensity of this system later this morning. While the GA/north FL area saw extensive convection and related outflow on Thursday, some recovery is possible prior to the arrival of the MCS, which will support potential for at least scattered damaging gusts before the MCS moves offshore. Depending on the timing and southeastward progression of the MCS, some redevelopment will be possible along the synoptic cold front during the afternoon, from southeast AL into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle vicinity. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection, and a couple stronger cells/clusters will be possible, with a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ...Parts of the Carolinas... With the early-day MCS to the south expected to move quickly offshore during the morning, there will be some opportunity for a corridor of moderate destabilization across part of the Carolinas in advance of the cold front. The favorably timed shortwave trough approaching from the northwest will support thunderstorm development along the front, with rather strong deep-layer flow/shear supporting storm organization. A couple of supercells and/or small bowing segments will be possible, with a primary threat of damaging gusts and hail. ...South-central TX... A cold front that will move through south-central TX is forecast to slow down through the day, before potentially stalling late tonight. Elevated convection may develop near/north of the front through the day. The intensity of any such convection remains uncertain, but elevated buoyancy may be sufficient to support a strong storm or two with isolated hail as the primary threat. ...Upper Midwest/Mississippi Valley... Low-topped convection may develop across parts of MN/WI this afternoon, in association with the shortwave trough moving southeastward across the region. Instability will be quite weak due to limited moisture, but relatively deep mixing and steep low-level lapse rates could support isolated gusty/damaging winds with the strongest convection. ..Dean/Squitieri.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH FL AND A SMALL PART OF SOUTH GA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST SC INTO SOUTHEAST NC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind are possible today across parts of south Georgia into north Florida. A few severe storms capable of producing damaging wind and hail are also possible across northeast South Carolina into southeast North Carolina. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper-level trough will persist over the eastern CONUS today. Within the large-scale trough, one shortwave will move southeastward from the mid MS Valley toward the Southeast, while an upstream shortwave trough (an attendant weak surface low) will move across the northern Great Plains and upper MS Valley. In the wake of extensive early morning convection, a cold front will move southward across parts of the Southeast and Texas. ...Parts of GA/north FL... An MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere across south GA/north FL, supported by favorable moisture/instability and strong westerly flow aloft. Some uncertainty remains regarding the timing and intensity of this system later this morning. While the GA/north FL area saw extensive convection and related outflow on Thursday, some recovery is possible prior to the arrival of the MCS, which will support potential for at least scattered damaging gusts before the MCS moves offshore. Depending on the timing and southeastward progression of the MCS, some redevelopment will be possible along the synoptic cold front during the afternoon, from southeast AL into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle vicinity. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection, and a couple stronger cells/clusters will be possible, with a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ...Parts of the Carolinas... With the early-day MCS to the south expected to move quickly offshore during the morning, there will be some opportunity for a corridor of moderate destabilization across part of the Carolinas in advance of the cold front. The favorably timed shortwave trough approaching from the northwest will support thunderstorm development along the front, with rather strong deep-layer flow/shear supporting storm organization. A couple of supercells and/or small bowing segments will be possible, with a primary threat of damaging gusts and hail. ...South-central TX... A cold front that will move through south-central TX is forecast to slow down through the day, before potentially stalling late tonight. Elevated convection may develop near/north of the front through the day. The intensity of any such convection remains uncertain, but elevated buoyancy may be sufficient to support a strong storm or two with isolated hail as the primary threat. ...Upper Midwest/Mississippi Valley... Low-topped convection may develop across parts of MN/WI this afternoon, in association with the shortwave trough moving southeastward across the region. Instability will be quite weak due to limited moisture, but relatively deep mixing and steep low-level lapse rates could support isolated gusty/damaging winds with the strongest convection. ..Dean/Squitieri.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH FL AND A SMALL PART OF SOUTH GA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST SC INTO SOUTHEAST NC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind are possible today across parts of south Georgia into north Florida. A few severe storms capable of producing damaging wind and hail are also possible across northeast South Carolina into southeast North Carolina. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper-level trough will persist over the eastern CONUS today. Within the large-scale trough, one shortwave will move southeastward from the mid MS Valley toward the Southeast, while an upstream shortwave trough (an attendant weak surface low) will move across the northern Great Plains and upper MS Valley. In the wake of extensive early morning convection, a cold front will move southward across parts of the Southeast and Texas. ...Parts of GA/north FL... An MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere across south GA/north FL, supported by favorable moisture/instability and strong westerly flow aloft. Some uncertainty remains regarding the timing and intensity of this system later this morning. While the GA/north FL area saw extensive convection and related outflow on Thursday, some recovery is possible prior to the arrival of the MCS, which will support potential for at least scattered damaging gusts before the MCS moves offshore. Depending on the timing and southeastward progression of the MCS, some redevelopment will be possible along the synoptic cold front during the afternoon, from southeast AL into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle vicinity. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection, and a couple stronger cells/clusters will be possible, with a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ...Parts of the Carolinas... With the early-day MCS to the south expected to move quickly offshore during the morning, there will be some opportunity for a corridor of moderate destabilization across part of the Carolinas in advance of the cold front. The favorably timed shortwave trough approaching from the northwest will support thunderstorm development along the front, with rather strong deep-layer flow/shear supporting storm organization. A couple of supercells and/or small bowing segments will be possible, with a primary threat of damaging gusts and hail. ...South-central TX... A cold front that will move through south-central TX is forecast to slow down through the day, before potentially stalling late tonight. Elevated convection may develop near/north of the front through the day. The intensity of any such convection remains uncertain, but elevated buoyancy may be sufficient to support a strong storm or two with isolated hail as the primary threat. ...Upper Midwest/Mississippi Valley... Low-topped convection may develop across parts of MN/WI this afternoon, in association with the shortwave trough moving southeastward across the region. Instability will be quite weak due to limited moisture, but relatively deep mixing and steep low-level lapse rates could support isolated gusty/damaging winds with the strongest convection. ..Dean/Squitieri.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH FL AND A SMALL PART OF SOUTH GA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST SC INTO SOUTHEAST NC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind are possible today across parts of south Georgia into north Florida. A few severe storms capable of producing damaging wind and hail are also possible across northeast South Carolina into southeast North Carolina. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper-level trough will persist over the eastern CONUS today. Within the large-scale trough, one shortwave will move southeastward from the mid MS Valley toward the Southeast, while an upstream shortwave trough (an attendant weak surface low) will move across the northern Great Plains and upper MS Valley. In the wake of extensive early morning convection, a cold front will move southward across parts of the Southeast and Texas. ...Parts of GA/north FL... An MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere across south GA/north FL, supported by favorable moisture/instability and strong westerly flow aloft. Some uncertainty remains regarding the timing and intensity of this system later this morning. While the GA/north FL area saw extensive convection and related outflow on Thursday, some recovery is possible prior to the arrival of the MCS, which will support potential for at least scattered damaging gusts before the MCS moves offshore. Depending on the timing and southeastward progression of the MCS, some redevelopment will be possible along the synoptic cold front during the afternoon, from southeast AL into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle vicinity. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection, and a couple stronger cells/clusters will be possible, with a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ...Parts of the Carolinas... With the early-day MCS to the south expected to move quickly offshore during the morning, there will be some opportunity for a corridor of moderate destabilization across part of the Carolinas in advance of the cold front. The favorably timed shortwave trough approaching from the northwest will support thunderstorm development along the front, with rather strong deep-layer flow/shear supporting storm organization. A couple of supercells and/or small bowing segments will be possible, with a primary threat of damaging gusts and hail. ...South-central TX... A cold front that will move through south-central TX is forecast to slow down through the day, before potentially stalling late tonight. Elevated convection may develop near/north of the front through the day. The intensity of any such convection remains uncertain, but elevated buoyancy may be sufficient to support a strong storm or two with isolated hail as the primary threat. ...Upper Midwest/Mississippi Valley... Low-topped convection may develop across parts of MN/WI this afternoon, in association with the shortwave trough moving southeastward across the region. Instability will be quite weak due to limited moisture, but relatively deep mixing and steep low-level lapse rates could support isolated gusty/damaging winds with the strongest convection. ..Dean/Squitieri.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH FL AND A SMALL PART OF SOUTH GA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST SC INTO SOUTHEAST NC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind are possible today across parts of south Georgia into north Florida. A few severe storms capable of producing damaging wind and hail are also possible across northeast South Carolina into southeast North Carolina. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper-level trough will persist over the eastern CONUS today. Within the large-scale trough, one shortwave will move southeastward from the mid MS Valley toward the Southeast, while an upstream shortwave trough (an attendant weak surface low) will move across the northern Great Plains and upper MS Valley. In the wake of extensive early morning convection, a cold front will move southward across parts of the Southeast and Texas. ...Parts of GA/north FL... An MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere across south GA/north FL, supported by favorable moisture/instability and strong westerly flow aloft. Some uncertainty remains regarding the timing and intensity of this system later this morning. While the GA/north FL area saw extensive convection and related outflow on Thursday, some recovery is possible prior to the arrival of the MCS, which will support potential for at least scattered damaging gusts before the MCS moves offshore. Depending on the timing and southeastward progression of the MCS, some redevelopment will be possible along the synoptic cold front during the afternoon, from southeast AL into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle vicinity. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection, and a couple stronger cells/clusters will be possible, with a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ...Parts of the Carolinas... With the early-day MCS to the south expected to move quickly offshore during the morning, there will be some opportunity for a corridor of moderate destabilization across part of the Carolinas in advance of the cold front. The favorably timed shortwave trough approaching from the northwest will support thunderstorm development along the front, with rather strong deep-layer flow/shear supporting storm organization. A couple of supercells and/or small bowing segments will be possible, with a primary threat of damaging gusts and hail. ...South-central TX... A cold front that will move through south-central TX is forecast to slow down through the day, before potentially stalling late tonight. Elevated convection may develop near/north of the front through the day. The intensity of any such convection remains uncertain, but elevated buoyancy may be sufficient to support a strong storm or two with isolated hail as the primary threat. ...Upper Midwest/Mississippi Valley... Low-topped convection may develop across parts of MN/WI this afternoon, in association with the shortwave trough moving southeastward across the region. Instability will be quite weak due to limited moisture, but relatively deep mixing and steep low-level lapse rates could support isolated gusty/damaging winds with the strongest convection. ..Dean/Squitieri.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH FL AND A SMALL PART OF SOUTH GA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST SC INTO SOUTHEAST NC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind are possible today across parts of south Georgia into north Florida. A few severe storms capable of producing damaging wind and hail are also possible across northeast South Carolina into southeast North Carolina. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper-level trough will persist over the eastern CONUS today. Within the large-scale trough, one shortwave will move southeastward from the mid MS Valley toward the Southeast, while an upstream shortwave trough (an attendant weak surface low) will move across the northern Great Plains and upper MS Valley. In the wake of extensive early morning convection, a cold front will move southward across parts of the Southeast and Texas. ...Parts of GA/north FL... An MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere across south GA/north FL, supported by favorable moisture/instability and strong westerly flow aloft. Some uncertainty remains regarding the timing and intensity of this system later this morning. While the GA/north FL area saw extensive convection and related outflow on Thursday, some recovery is possible prior to the arrival of the MCS, which will support potential for at least scattered damaging gusts before the MCS moves offshore. Depending on the timing and southeastward progression of the MCS, some redevelopment will be possible along the synoptic cold front during the afternoon, from southeast AL into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle vicinity. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection, and a couple stronger cells/clusters will be possible, with a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ...Parts of the Carolinas... With the early-day MCS to the south expected to move quickly offshore during the morning, there will be some opportunity for a corridor of moderate destabilization across part of the Carolinas in advance of the cold front. The favorably timed shortwave trough approaching from the northwest will support thunderstorm development along the front, with rather strong deep-layer flow/shear supporting storm organization. A couple of supercells and/or small bowing segments will be possible, with a primary threat of damaging gusts and hail. ...South-central TX... A cold front that will move through south-central TX is forecast to slow down through the day, before potentially stalling late tonight. Elevated convection may develop near/north of the front through the day. The intensity of any such convection remains uncertain, but elevated buoyancy may be sufficient to support a strong storm or two with isolated hail as the primary threat. ...Upper Midwest/Mississippi Valley... Low-topped convection may develop across parts of MN/WI this afternoon, in association with the shortwave trough moving southeastward across the region. Instability will be quite weak due to limited moisture, but relatively deep mixing and steep low-level lapse rates could support isolated gusty/damaging winds with the strongest convection. ..Dean/Squitieri.. 05/10/2024 Read more

WW 0225 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 225 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE POE TO 25 NE ESF TO 65 NNW PIB TO 30 SW CBM. ..BROYLES..05/10/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 225 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC009-025-029-039-079-100640- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE AVOYELLES CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EVANGELINE RAPIDES MSC001-023-029-031-037-061-063-065-067-069-075-077-079-085-099- 101-123-127-129-100640- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS CLARKE COPIAH COVINGTON FRANKLIN JASPER JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LEAKE LINCOLN NESHOBA NEWTON SCOTT SIMPSON SMITH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0226 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 226 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/10/24 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...FFC...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 226 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-005-011-013-021-023-025-031-035-039-041-045-047-051-053- 061-063-065-067-069-085-087-091-099-101-105-109-113-119-129-131- 100640- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BARBOUR BULLOCK BUTLER CHILTON CHOCTAW CLARKE COFFEE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE DALLAS ELMORE ESCAMBIA GENEVA GREENE HALE HENRY HOUSTON LOWNDES MACON MARENGO MONROE MONTGOMERY PERRY PIKE RUSSELL SUMTER WASHINGTON WILCOX GAC037-053-061-099-215-239-243-259-273-307-100640- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALHOUN CHATTAHOOCHEE CLAY Read more

MD 0743 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 225...226... FOR FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA EAST INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0743 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Areas affected...from central Louisiana east into southern Alabama Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 225...226... Valid 100441Z - 100545Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 225, 226 continues. SUMMARY...Clusters of strong/severe storms -- capable of producing damaging winds and hail -- will continue moving eastward across portions of WW 225 and 226. New WW may be required to extend a bit farther south into parts of southeastern Louisiana. DISCUSSION...Widespread thunderstorms currently extend from east-central/southeastern Mississippi west-southwestward to southwestern Louisiana. Meanwhile, a weakening band of storms is moving into southwestern Georgia -- but with new storm development over southern Alabama along remnant outflow. Overall, a very unstable (averaging 3000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE) persists across the central Gulf Coast region south of areas that have been convectively overturned previously. This suggests that storms should persist well into the overnight, spreading eastward out of Mississippi into Alabama, and perhaps expanding a bit southward into parts of southeastern Louisiana. Locally damaging wind gusts and hail can be expected across this area, and a new WW south of the existing watches may be needed in the short term, to cover the southern extent of this risk area. ..Goss.. 05/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 30799354 31119324 31739197 32029040 32668949 32968756 32518664 31778663 31038718 30448972 30519184 30799354 Read more

WW 0227 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0227 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0742 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 223...225... FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO WESTERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0742 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Areas affected...central and eastern Mississippi into western Alabama Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 223...225... Valid 100312Z - 100445Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 223, 225 continues. SUMMARY...Storms continue to increase across western Mississippi, and should progress eastward toward/into Alabama over the next few hours. Risk for hail and damaging wind gusts will likely warrant new WW issuance and/or WW extensions across this area. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows storms moving east-northeastward across western Mississippi at around 40 kt. Downstream, a very unstable (around 3500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE) environment remains, which should sustain the advancing convection. While low-level flow remains rather weak across this area, the mid- and upper-level wind field remains strong, with west-southwesterlies in the 50 to 60 kt range indicated. This should permit storms to continue to organize, and move quickly eastward, accompanied by at least occasional/local damaging wind gusts. While some of the convection will remain within more recently issued WW 225, storms are now moving into areas covered currently by WW 223, which is set to expire at 10/04Z. As such, some local extension of WW 223 in Mississippi may be required, along with potential new watch issuance across a sizeable portion of Alabama. ..Goss/Hart.. 05/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 31168861 31299002 31769027 32439020 33099043 33699035 33848813 33578672 32118676 31368753 31168861 Read more

MD 0741 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 225... FOR PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN TEXAS INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0741 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Areas affected...portions of far eastern Texas into central Louisiana and western Mississippi Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 225... Valid 100300Z - 100430Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 225 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 225. Severe wind and hail should be the main threats over the next few hours. However, upscale growth into one or more MCSs is possible tonight, with severe winds becoming the primary threat. DISCUSSION...Multiple semi-discrete supercells and multicellular clusters persist across eastern TX into central MS amid a very unstable and highly sheared troposphere. As such, any storms that remain discrete will have the potential to continue producing severe hail in addition to damaging gusts. There is also some potential for upscale growth into one or more progressive, cold-pool-driven MCSs, as indicated by the 01Z run of both the HRRR and Warn-on-Forecast ensemble. Should this occur, focused corridors of severe winds could accompany these MCSs. At the moment, the best potential for upscale growth appear to be with the convective clusters in far eastern TX and perhaps with rapidly intensifying storms in north-central LA. ..Squitieri.. 05/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX... LAT...LON 29979420 30749463 31379395 32399182 32749091 32689045 32319021 31849037 31519081 30739158 29979420 Read more

WW 0226 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 226 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..05/10/24 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...FFC...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 226 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-005-011-013-021-023-025-031-035-039-041-045-047-051-053- 061-063-065-067-069-085-087-091-099-101-105-109-113-119-129-131- 100540- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BARBOUR BULLOCK BUTLER CHILTON CHOCTAW CLARKE COFFEE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE DALLAS ELMORE ESCAMBIA GENEVA GREENE HALE HENRY HOUSTON LOWNDES MACON MARENGO MONROE MONTGOMERY PERRY PIKE RUSSELL SUMTER WASHINGTON WILCOX GAC037-053-061-099-215-239-243-259-273-307-100540- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALHOUN CHATTAHOOCHEE CLAY Read more

WW 0225 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 225 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE UTS TO 40 W POE TO 30 NNE ESF TO 75 S GWO TO 35 SSW GWO. ..SQUITIERI..05/10/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 225 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC003-009-011-025-029-039-079-115-100540- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EVANGELINE RAPIDES VERNON MSC001-021-023-029-031-037-049-061-063-065-067-069-075-077-079- 085-089-099-101-121-123-127-129-163-100540- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS CLAIBORNE CLARKE COPIAH COVINGTON FRANKLIN HINDS JASPER JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LEAKE LINCOLN MADISON NESHOBA NEWTON RANKIN SCOTT SIMPSON SMITH YAZOO Read more

MD 0740 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 223... FOR EAST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0740 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0949 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Areas affected...east-central Mississippi and eastward across central Alabama Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 223... Valid 100249Z - 100415Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 223 continues. SUMMARY...Strong/locally severe storms continue across central Alabama. DISCUSSION...Storms across central Alabama have recently evolved into a bowing cluster, which is moving southeastward toward the Montgomery area and likely accompanied by damaging winds. On this trajectory, the storms will eventually begin to encounter a more stable airmass across far southeastern Alabama and into southwestern Georgia. This should eventually prove to be a negative in terms of storm intensity/wind risk, and may preclude the urgency for a downstream WW. In the mean time, damaging wind risk has increased across east-central Alabama. ..Goss.. 05/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 32288654 32778651 32788609 33078544 32328464 31358490 31388578 32288654 Read more

WW 0226 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0226 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more