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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, will be possible this evening into tonight from the Ark-La-Tex into the mid Mississippi Valley. ...Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley... The center of Tropical Cyclone Beryl is currently located in northeast Texas. A distinct rain band associated with Beryl, is near and along an axis of instability from southern Arkansas southward across central Louisiana. This rainband is situated along the northern and eastern edge of a 50 of 60 knot low-level speed max. This speed max is being sampled by the Shreveport WSR-88D VWP, which has 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity between 450 and 500 m2/s2. This strong low-level shear will continue a tornado threat this evening across northern Louisiana and Arkansas, where a few tornadoes will be possible with semi-discrete cells embedded in the rain band. As the center of Beryl moves into southwestern Arkansas late this evening, the tornado threat will shift north-northeastward into the eastern Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. The tornado threat should become more isolated with time from late evening into the overnight period as instability gradually decreases across the region. ..Broyles.. 07/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, will be possible this evening into tonight from the Ark-La-Tex into the mid Mississippi Valley. ...Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley... The center of Tropical Cyclone Beryl is currently located in northeast Texas. A distinct rain band associated with Beryl, is near and along an axis of instability from southern Arkansas southward across central Louisiana. This rainband is situated along the northern and eastern edge of a 50 of 60 knot low-level speed max. This speed max is being sampled by the Shreveport WSR-88D VWP, which has 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity between 450 and 500 m2/s2. This strong low-level shear will continue a tornado threat this evening across northern Louisiana and Arkansas, where a few tornadoes will be possible with semi-discrete cells embedded in the rain band. As the center of Beryl moves into southwestern Arkansas late this evening, the tornado threat will shift north-northeastward into the eastern Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. The tornado threat should become more isolated with time from late evening into the overnight period as instability gradually decreases across the region. ..Broyles.. 07/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, will be possible this evening into tonight from the Ark-La-Tex into the mid Mississippi Valley. ...Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley... The center of Tropical Cyclone Beryl is currently located in northeast Texas. A distinct rain band associated with Beryl, is near and along an axis of instability from southern Arkansas southward across central Louisiana. This rainband is situated along the northern and eastern edge of a 50 of 60 knot low-level speed max. This speed max is being sampled by the Shreveport WSR-88D VWP, which has 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity between 450 and 500 m2/s2. This strong low-level shear will continue a tornado threat this evening across northern Louisiana and Arkansas, where a few tornadoes will be possible with semi-discrete cells embedded in the rain band. As the center of Beryl moves into southwestern Arkansas late this evening, the tornado threat will shift north-northeastward into the eastern Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. The tornado threat should become more isolated with time from late evening into the overnight period as instability gradually decreases across the region. ..Broyles.. 07/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, will be possible this evening into tonight from the Ark-La-Tex into the mid Mississippi Valley. ...Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley... The center of Tropical Cyclone Beryl is currently located in northeast Texas. A distinct rain band associated with Beryl, is near and along an axis of instability from southern Arkansas southward across central Louisiana. This rainband is situated along the northern and eastern edge of a 50 of 60 knot low-level speed max. This speed max is being sampled by the Shreveport WSR-88D VWP, which has 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity between 450 and 500 m2/s2. This strong low-level shear will continue a tornado threat this evening across northern Louisiana and Arkansas, where a few tornadoes will be possible with semi-discrete cells embedded in the rain band. As the center of Beryl moves into southwestern Arkansas late this evening, the tornado threat will shift north-northeastward into the eastern Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. The tornado threat should become more isolated with time from late evening into the overnight period as instability gradually decreases across the region. ..Broyles.. 07/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, will be possible this evening into tonight from the Ark-La-Tex into the mid Mississippi Valley. ...Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley... The center of Tropical Cyclone Beryl is currently located in northeast Texas. A distinct rain band associated with Beryl, is near and along an axis of instability from southern Arkansas southward across central Louisiana. This rainband is situated along the northern and eastern edge of a 50 of 60 knot low-level speed max. This speed max is being sampled by the Shreveport WSR-88D VWP, which has 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity between 450 and 500 m2/s2. This strong low-level shear will continue a tornado threat this evening across northern Louisiana and Arkansas, where a few tornadoes will be possible with semi-discrete cells embedded in the rain band. As the center of Beryl moves into southwestern Arkansas late this evening, the tornado threat will shift north-northeastward into the eastern Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. The tornado threat should become more isolated with time from late evening into the overnight period as instability gradually decreases across the region. ..Broyles.. 07/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, will be possible this evening into tonight from the Ark-La-Tex into the mid Mississippi Valley. ...Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley... The center of Tropical Cyclone Beryl is currently located in northeast Texas. A distinct rain band associated with Beryl, is near and along an axis of instability from southern Arkansas southward across central Louisiana. This rainband is situated along the northern and eastern edge of a 50 of 60 knot low-level speed max. This speed max is being sampled by the Shreveport WSR-88D VWP, which has 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity between 450 and 500 m2/s2. This strong low-level shear will continue a tornado threat this evening across northern Louisiana and Arkansas, where a few tornadoes will be possible with semi-discrete cells embedded in the rain band. As the center of Beryl moves into southwestern Arkansas late this evening, the tornado threat will shift north-northeastward into the eastern Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. The tornado threat should become more isolated with time from late evening into the overnight period as instability gradually decreases across the region. ..Broyles.. 07/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, will be possible this evening into tonight from the Ark-La-Tex into the mid Mississippi Valley. ...Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley... The center of Tropical Cyclone Beryl is currently located in northeast Texas. A distinct rain band associated with Beryl, is near and along an axis of instability from southern Arkansas southward across central Louisiana. This rainband is situated along the northern and eastern edge of a 50 of 60 knot low-level speed max. This speed max is being sampled by the Shreveport WSR-88D VWP, which has 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity between 450 and 500 m2/s2. This strong low-level shear will continue a tornado threat this evening across northern Louisiana and Arkansas, where a few tornadoes will be possible with semi-discrete cells embedded in the rain band. As the center of Beryl moves into southwestern Arkansas late this evening, the tornado threat will shift north-northeastward into the eastern Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. The tornado threat should become more isolated with time from late evening into the overnight period as instability gradually decreases across the region. ..Broyles.. 07/09/2024 Read more

WW 0514 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 514 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE BPT TO 10 WSW POE TO 30 WNW IER TO 25 E GGG TO 30 NW GGG. ..SPC..07/09/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV...LCH...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 514 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC027-057-073-081-091-099-139-090140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLUMBIA HEMPSTEAD LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER MILLER NEVADA UNION LAC003-013-015-017-027-031-043-049-053-061-069-079-081-111-119- 127-090140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON JEFFERSON DAVIS LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES RAPIDES RED RIVER UNION WEBSTER WINN TXC037-067-203-315-343-459-090140- Read more

WW 0514 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 514 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE BPT TO 10 WSW POE TO 30 WNW IER TO 25 E GGG TO 30 NW GGG. ..SPC..07/09/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV...LCH...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 514 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC027-057-073-081-091-099-139-090140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLUMBIA HEMPSTEAD LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER MILLER NEVADA UNION LAC003-013-015-017-027-031-043-049-053-061-069-079-081-111-119- 127-090140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON JEFFERSON DAVIS LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES RAPIDES RED RIVER UNION WEBSTER WINN TXC037-067-203-315-343-459-090140- Read more

WW 0514 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 514 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE BPT TO 10 WSW POE TO 30 WNW IER TO 25 E GGG TO 30 NW GGG. ..SPC..07/09/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV...LCH...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 514 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC027-057-073-081-091-099-139-090140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLUMBIA HEMPSTEAD LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER MILLER NEVADA UNION LAC003-013-015-017-027-031-043-049-053-061-069-079-081-111-119- 127-090140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON JEFFERSON DAVIS LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES RAPIDES RED RIVER UNION WEBSTER WINN TXC037-067-203-315-343-459-090140- Read more

WW 0514 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 514 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE BPT TO 10 WSW POE TO 30 WNW IER TO 25 E GGG TO 30 NW GGG. ..SPC..07/09/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV...LCH...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 514 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC027-057-073-081-091-099-139-090140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLUMBIA HEMPSTEAD LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER MILLER NEVADA UNION LAC003-013-015-017-027-031-043-049-053-061-069-079-081-111-119- 127-090140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON JEFFERSON DAVIS LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES RAPIDES RED RIVER UNION WEBSTER WINN TXC037-067-203-315-343-459-090140- Read more

WW 0514 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 514 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE BPT TO 10 WSW POE TO 30 WNW IER TO 25 E GGG TO 30 NW GGG. ..SPC..07/09/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV...LCH...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 514 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC027-057-073-081-091-099-139-090140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLUMBIA HEMPSTEAD LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER MILLER NEVADA UNION LAC003-013-015-017-027-031-043-049-053-061-069-079-081-111-119- 127-090140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON JEFFERSON DAVIS LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES RAPIDES RED RIVER UNION WEBSTER WINN TXC037-067-203-315-343-459-090140- Read more

WW 514 TORNADO AR LA TX CW 081500Z - 090300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 514 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Arkansas Western and Central Louisiana East and Southeast Texas Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday morning and evening from 1000 AM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes likely Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Gradual daytime destabilization and a strong atmospheric winds associated with the northward movement of Tropical cyclone Beryl will be favorable for low-topped supercells capable of tornadoes through this afternoon and early evening. This risk will mostly be focused across east/southeast Texas and far western Louisiana this morning, but it will expand north-northeastward across additional parts of east/northeast Texas, western/northern Louisiana, and eventually southern Arkansas through late afternoon and evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles southwest of Port Arthur TX to 45 miles west northwest of El Dorado AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 513... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 16040. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0515 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0515 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0515 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0515 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0515 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0515 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 082345
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Jul 8 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

MD 1561 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 514...515... FOR TS BERYL
Mesoscale Discussion 1561 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Areas affected...TS Beryl Concerning...Tornado Watch 514...515... Valid 082329Z - 090130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 514, 515 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado threat will be most concentrated from northern Louisiana into central Arkansas this evening. DISCUSSION...Center of TS Beryl is lifting northeast across northeast TX early this evening. Latest radar data suggests the remnant circulation is just south of Longview. As such, strongest low-level shear is now focusing across the ArkLaTex, especially into southern AR where values continue to increase. Latest VWP data from SHV depicts weakening 0-3km SRH values, while 0-3km values are showing a marked increase as far northeast as LZK (300 m2/s2). While a few supercells linger at lower latitudes over central LA, the strongest longer-lived supercells are now concentrated from northwest LA into southwest AR. Over the next several hours the primary corridor of concern will orient itself from north of SHV toward LIT. ..Darrow.. 07/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 33209421 34399308 33689188 32759337 33209421 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jul 8 22:16:13 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Between a large-scale ridge over the Great Basin and a trough moving into British Columbia, west-southwesterly midlevel flow will strengthen across the Northwest -- where a warm/dry antecedent airmass will be in place. This will promote breezy/gusty westerly surface winds and low RH along/east of the Cascades in WA and OR on Day 3/Wednesday. This will favor elevated fire-weather conditions, with locally critical conditions expected primarily in the Cascade gaps. 70-percent probabilities have been withheld, given the expectation for only locally critical conditions. Dry/breezy conditions may persist across parts of the Northwest and CA through the remainder of the forecast period, though the potential for any more than locally critical conditions appears too low for additional probabilities. On Day 4/Thursday, broad/enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the northern Great Basin (along the northern periphery of the ridge), yielding dry/breezy conditions across southern ID. Elevated to locally critical conditions are expected (especially along the Snake River Plain), and 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added for this. By this weekend, a midlevel moisture plume will spread northward into the Northwest -- along the western periphery of the large-scale ridge. At the same time, medium-range guidance depicts a midlevel trough glancing the Northwest, which will support increasing thunderstorm potential across the region. Continued model differences on the evolution of the midlevel trough casts uncertainty on this scenario, though trends will be monitored for possible Dry Thunderstorm highlights in future outlooks. Farther south, thunderstorm potential will also increase across parts of the southern Great Basin late this week into the weekend, along the northern edge of the richer midlevel moisture. While dry thunderstorms will be possible atop modestly receptive fuels, a lack of focused large-scale ascent limits overall forecast confidence for now. ..Weinman/Halbert.. 07/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more