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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible this afternoon into tonight across the lower Ohio Valley in association with the remnants of Beryl. ...20Z Update... ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Buoyancy continues to increase across the Lower/Middle OH Valley, downstream of the surface low centered about 35 miles southwest of PAH. There also appears to be a corridor of slightly better low-level (i.e. dewpoints around 76/77 deg F) immediately downstream of this low over southwest KY. General expectation is that thunderstorm coverage will increase over the next few hours, with the greatest coverage anticipated across central and northern KY/southern IN vicinity. Area VAD profiles continue to show moderate low to mid-level flow atop the modest southerly/southeasterly surface winds, supporting the potential for tornadoes and/or damaging gusts within any of the deeper, more persistent updrafts. ...New England... As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1564, splitting marginal supercells capable of isolated large hail and damaging winds remain possible across the region this afternoon and into this evening. ...New Mexico... Forecast outlined previously (appended below) remains valid, with thunderstorm development expected to increase this afternoon and evening across the higher terrain of NM. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two are possible. ..Mosier.. 07/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024/ ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Beryl has become a post-tropical cyclone with its remnant surface circulation (1004 MB) shifting northeastward across the Mid-South this morning, and it will continue toward the confluence of the Ohio/Mississippi Rivers today and Wabash Valley vicinity of southern Illinois and central/southern Indiana tonight. Short-term global/mesoscale guidance varies on the strength of 2-3km AGL winds diurnally, but recent WSR-88D VWP data from Memphis substantiates the possibility of somewhat-stronger-than-guidance low-level winds, with a more uniform guidance consensus otherwise that low-level winds/shear will likely regionally strengthen into this evening. Preceding the surface low, a warm front will effectively shift north-northeastward from western/northern Tennessee across Kentucky toward the Ohio River, oriented generally parallel to the river later today, with increasingly prevalent lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints within the nearby warm sector. Cloud breaks and a steady warming of the boundary layer will promote an increase and intensification of storms this afternoon. Enlarged low-level hodographs, especially in proximity to the warm front, and on the east-southeast periphery of the surface wave, will support semi-discrete rotating storms/supercells capable of tornadoes this afternoon through at least early/mid-evening, particularly within a corridor across northwest Tennessee, much of Kentucky, into southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and southern Ohio. Even with a gradual wane in boundary layer buoyancy and low-level parcel accelerations, at least some potential for wind damage and/or tornado risk will continue through the late-night hours northeastward across Ohio toward the Lake Erie vicinity. ...New England... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and mid-level speed max will influence the region, with increasing thunderstorm development expected this afternoon along a weak/remnant front, with additional influence by higher terrain and differential heating. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two can be expected, with wind gusts of 50-65 mph and severe hail possible this afternoon through around sunset. ...New Mexico... The region will be influenced by a relatively moist air mass over interior areas along with a belt of modestly strong northwesterly flow aloft. Thunderstorm development should semi-focus this afternoon near the Raton Mesa as well as the Gila National Forest vicinity, with storms subsequently generally moving south. Steep lapse rates and sufficient moisture/buoyancy, in the presence of moderately strong/vertically veering wind profiles, may allow for some strong to locally severe storms this afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible this afternoon into tonight across the lower Ohio Valley in association with the remnants of Beryl. ...20Z Update... ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Buoyancy continues to increase across the Lower/Middle OH Valley, downstream of the surface low centered about 35 miles southwest of PAH. There also appears to be a corridor of slightly better low-level (i.e. dewpoints around 76/77 deg F) immediately downstream of this low over southwest KY. General expectation is that thunderstorm coverage will increase over the next few hours, with the greatest coverage anticipated across central and northern KY/southern IN vicinity. Area VAD profiles continue to show moderate low to mid-level flow atop the modest southerly/southeasterly surface winds, supporting the potential for tornadoes and/or damaging gusts within any of the deeper, more persistent updrafts. ...New England... As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1564, splitting marginal supercells capable of isolated large hail and damaging winds remain possible across the region this afternoon and into this evening. ...New Mexico... Forecast outlined previously (appended below) remains valid, with thunderstorm development expected to increase this afternoon and evening across the higher terrain of NM. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two are possible. ..Mosier.. 07/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024/ ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Beryl has become a post-tropical cyclone with its remnant surface circulation (1004 MB) shifting northeastward across the Mid-South this morning, and it will continue toward the confluence of the Ohio/Mississippi Rivers today and Wabash Valley vicinity of southern Illinois and central/southern Indiana tonight. Short-term global/mesoscale guidance varies on the strength of 2-3km AGL winds diurnally, but recent WSR-88D VWP data from Memphis substantiates the possibility of somewhat-stronger-than-guidance low-level winds, with a more uniform guidance consensus otherwise that low-level winds/shear will likely regionally strengthen into this evening. Preceding the surface low, a warm front will effectively shift north-northeastward from western/northern Tennessee across Kentucky toward the Ohio River, oriented generally parallel to the river later today, with increasingly prevalent lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints within the nearby warm sector. Cloud breaks and a steady warming of the boundary layer will promote an increase and intensification of storms this afternoon. Enlarged low-level hodographs, especially in proximity to the warm front, and on the east-southeast periphery of the surface wave, will support semi-discrete rotating storms/supercells capable of tornadoes this afternoon through at least early/mid-evening, particularly within a corridor across northwest Tennessee, much of Kentucky, into southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and southern Ohio. Even with a gradual wane in boundary layer buoyancy and low-level parcel accelerations, at least some potential for wind damage and/or tornado risk will continue through the late-night hours northeastward across Ohio toward the Lake Erie vicinity. ...New England... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and mid-level speed max will influence the region, with increasing thunderstorm development expected this afternoon along a weak/remnant front, with additional influence by higher terrain and differential heating. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two can be expected, with wind gusts of 50-65 mph and severe hail possible this afternoon through around sunset. ...New Mexico... The region will be influenced by a relatively moist air mass over interior areas along with a belt of modestly strong northwesterly flow aloft. Thunderstorm development should semi-focus this afternoon near the Raton Mesa as well as the Gila National Forest vicinity, with storms subsequently generally moving south. Steep lapse rates and sufficient moisture/buoyancy, in the presence of moderately strong/vertically veering wind profiles, may allow for some strong to locally severe storms this afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible this afternoon into tonight across the lower Ohio Valley in association with the remnants of Beryl. ...20Z Update... ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Buoyancy continues to increase across the Lower/Middle OH Valley, downstream of the surface low centered about 35 miles southwest of PAH. There also appears to be a corridor of slightly better low-level (i.e. dewpoints around 76/77 deg F) immediately downstream of this low over southwest KY. General expectation is that thunderstorm coverage will increase over the next few hours, with the greatest coverage anticipated across central and northern KY/southern IN vicinity. Area VAD profiles continue to show moderate low to mid-level flow atop the modest southerly/southeasterly surface winds, supporting the potential for tornadoes and/or damaging gusts within any of the deeper, more persistent updrafts. ...New England... As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1564, splitting marginal supercells capable of isolated large hail and damaging winds remain possible across the region this afternoon and into this evening. ...New Mexico... Forecast outlined previously (appended below) remains valid, with thunderstorm development expected to increase this afternoon and evening across the higher terrain of NM. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two are possible. ..Mosier.. 07/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024/ ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Beryl has become a post-tropical cyclone with its remnant surface circulation (1004 MB) shifting northeastward across the Mid-South this morning, and it will continue toward the confluence of the Ohio/Mississippi Rivers today and Wabash Valley vicinity of southern Illinois and central/southern Indiana tonight. Short-term global/mesoscale guidance varies on the strength of 2-3km AGL winds diurnally, but recent WSR-88D VWP data from Memphis substantiates the possibility of somewhat-stronger-than-guidance low-level winds, with a more uniform guidance consensus otherwise that low-level winds/shear will likely regionally strengthen into this evening. Preceding the surface low, a warm front will effectively shift north-northeastward from western/northern Tennessee across Kentucky toward the Ohio River, oriented generally parallel to the river later today, with increasingly prevalent lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints within the nearby warm sector. Cloud breaks and a steady warming of the boundary layer will promote an increase and intensification of storms this afternoon. Enlarged low-level hodographs, especially in proximity to the warm front, and on the east-southeast periphery of the surface wave, will support semi-discrete rotating storms/supercells capable of tornadoes this afternoon through at least early/mid-evening, particularly within a corridor across northwest Tennessee, much of Kentucky, into southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and southern Ohio. Even with a gradual wane in boundary layer buoyancy and low-level parcel accelerations, at least some potential for wind damage and/or tornado risk will continue through the late-night hours northeastward across Ohio toward the Lake Erie vicinity. ...New England... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and mid-level speed max will influence the region, with increasing thunderstorm development expected this afternoon along a weak/remnant front, with additional influence by higher terrain and differential heating. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two can be expected, with wind gusts of 50-65 mph and severe hail possible this afternoon through around sunset. ...New Mexico... The region will be influenced by a relatively moist air mass over interior areas along with a belt of modestly strong northwesterly flow aloft. Thunderstorm development should semi-focus this afternoon near the Raton Mesa as well as the Gila National Forest vicinity, with storms subsequently generally moving south. Steep lapse rates and sufficient moisture/buoyancy, in the presence of moderately strong/vertically veering wind profiles, may allow for some strong to locally severe storms this afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible this afternoon into tonight across the lower Ohio Valley in association with the remnants of Beryl. ...20Z Update... ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Buoyancy continues to increase across the Lower/Middle OH Valley, downstream of the surface low centered about 35 miles southwest of PAH. There also appears to be a corridor of slightly better low-level (i.e. dewpoints around 76/77 deg F) immediately downstream of this low over southwest KY. General expectation is that thunderstorm coverage will increase over the next few hours, with the greatest coverage anticipated across central and northern KY/southern IN vicinity. Area VAD profiles continue to show moderate low to mid-level flow atop the modest southerly/southeasterly surface winds, supporting the potential for tornadoes and/or damaging gusts within any of the deeper, more persistent updrafts. ...New England... As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1564, splitting marginal supercells capable of isolated large hail and damaging winds remain possible across the region this afternoon and into this evening. ...New Mexico... Forecast outlined previously (appended below) remains valid, with thunderstorm development expected to increase this afternoon and evening across the higher terrain of NM. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two are possible. ..Mosier.. 07/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024/ ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Beryl has become a post-tropical cyclone with its remnant surface circulation (1004 MB) shifting northeastward across the Mid-South this morning, and it will continue toward the confluence of the Ohio/Mississippi Rivers today and Wabash Valley vicinity of southern Illinois and central/southern Indiana tonight. Short-term global/mesoscale guidance varies on the strength of 2-3km AGL winds diurnally, but recent WSR-88D VWP data from Memphis substantiates the possibility of somewhat-stronger-than-guidance low-level winds, with a more uniform guidance consensus otherwise that low-level winds/shear will likely regionally strengthen into this evening. Preceding the surface low, a warm front will effectively shift north-northeastward from western/northern Tennessee across Kentucky toward the Ohio River, oriented generally parallel to the river later today, with increasingly prevalent lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints within the nearby warm sector. Cloud breaks and a steady warming of the boundary layer will promote an increase and intensification of storms this afternoon. Enlarged low-level hodographs, especially in proximity to the warm front, and on the east-southeast periphery of the surface wave, will support semi-discrete rotating storms/supercells capable of tornadoes this afternoon through at least early/mid-evening, particularly within a corridor across northwest Tennessee, much of Kentucky, into southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and southern Ohio. Even with a gradual wane in boundary layer buoyancy and low-level parcel accelerations, at least some potential for wind damage and/or tornado risk will continue through the late-night hours northeastward across Ohio toward the Lake Erie vicinity. ...New England... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and mid-level speed max will influence the region, with increasing thunderstorm development expected this afternoon along a weak/remnant front, with additional influence by higher terrain and differential heating. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two can be expected, with wind gusts of 50-65 mph and severe hail possible this afternoon through around sunset. ...New Mexico... The region will be influenced by a relatively moist air mass over interior areas along with a belt of modestly strong northwesterly flow aloft. Thunderstorm development should semi-focus this afternoon near the Raton Mesa as well as the Gila National Forest vicinity, with storms subsequently generally moving south. Steep lapse rates and sufficient moisture/buoyancy, in the presence of moderately strong/vertically veering wind profiles, may allow for some strong to locally severe storms this afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible this afternoon into tonight across the lower Ohio Valley in association with the remnants of Beryl. ...20Z Update... ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Buoyancy continues to increase across the Lower/Middle OH Valley, downstream of the surface low centered about 35 miles southwest of PAH. There also appears to be a corridor of slightly better low-level (i.e. dewpoints around 76/77 deg F) immediately downstream of this low over southwest KY. General expectation is that thunderstorm coverage will increase over the next few hours, with the greatest coverage anticipated across central and northern KY/southern IN vicinity. Area VAD profiles continue to show moderate low to mid-level flow atop the modest southerly/southeasterly surface winds, supporting the potential for tornadoes and/or damaging gusts within any of the deeper, more persistent updrafts. ...New England... As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1564, splitting marginal supercells capable of isolated large hail and damaging winds remain possible across the region this afternoon and into this evening. ...New Mexico... Forecast outlined previously (appended below) remains valid, with thunderstorm development expected to increase this afternoon and evening across the higher terrain of NM. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two are possible. ..Mosier.. 07/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024/ ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Beryl has become a post-tropical cyclone with its remnant surface circulation (1004 MB) shifting northeastward across the Mid-South this morning, and it will continue toward the confluence of the Ohio/Mississippi Rivers today and Wabash Valley vicinity of southern Illinois and central/southern Indiana tonight. Short-term global/mesoscale guidance varies on the strength of 2-3km AGL winds diurnally, but recent WSR-88D VWP data from Memphis substantiates the possibility of somewhat-stronger-than-guidance low-level winds, with a more uniform guidance consensus otherwise that low-level winds/shear will likely regionally strengthen into this evening. Preceding the surface low, a warm front will effectively shift north-northeastward from western/northern Tennessee across Kentucky toward the Ohio River, oriented generally parallel to the river later today, with increasingly prevalent lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints within the nearby warm sector. Cloud breaks and a steady warming of the boundary layer will promote an increase and intensification of storms this afternoon. Enlarged low-level hodographs, especially in proximity to the warm front, and on the east-southeast periphery of the surface wave, will support semi-discrete rotating storms/supercells capable of tornadoes this afternoon through at least early/mid-evening, particularly within a corridor across northwest Tennessee, much of Kentucky, into southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and southern Ohio. Even with a gradual wane in boundary layer buoyancy and low-level parcel accelerations, at least some potential for wind damage and/or tornado risk will continue through the late-night hours northeastward across Ohio toward the Lake Erie vicinity. ...New England... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and mid-level speed max will influence the region, with increasing thunderstorm development expected this afternoon along a weak/remnant front, with additional influence by higher terrain and differential heating. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two can be expected, with wind gusts of 50-65 mph and severe hail possible this afternoon through around sunset. ...New Mexico... The region will be influenced by a relatively moist air mass over interior areas along with a belt of modestly strong northwesterly flow aloft. Thunderstorm development should semi-focus this afternoon near the Raton Mesa as well as the Gila National Forest vicinity, with storms subsequently generally moving south. Steep lapse rates and sufficient moisture/buoyancy, in the presence of moderately strong/vertically veering wind profiles, may allow for some strong to locally severe storms this afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible this afternoon into tonight across the lower Ohio Valley in association with the remnants of Beryl. ...20Z Update... ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Buoyancy continues to increase across the Lower/Middle OH Valley, downstream of the surface low centered about 35 miles southwest of PAH. There also appears to be a corridor of slightly better low-level (i.e. dewpoints around 76/77 deg F) immediately downstream of this low over southwest KY. General expectation is that thunderstorm coverage will increase over the next few hours, with the greatest coverage anticipated across central and northern KY/southern IN vicinity. Area VAD profiles continue to show moderate low to mid-level flow atop the modest southerly/southeasterly surface winds, supporting the potential for tornadoes and/or damaging gusts within any of the deeper, more persistent updrafts. ...New England... As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1564, splitting marginal supercells capable of isolated large hail and damaging winds remain possible across the region this afternoon and into this evening. ...New Mexico... Forecast outlined previously (appended below) remains valid, with thunderstorm development expected to increase this afternoon and evening across the higher terrain of NM. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two are possible. ..Mosier.. 07/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024/ ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Beryl has become a post-tropical cyclone with its remnant surface circulation (1004 MB) shifting northeastward across the Mid-South this morning, and it will continue toward the confluence of the Ohio/Mississippi Rivers today and Wabash Valley vicinity of southern Illinois and central/southern Indiana tonight. Short-term global/mesoscale guidance varies on the strength of 2-3km AGL winds diurnally, but recent WSR-88D VWP data from Memphis substantiates the possibility of somewhat-stronger-than-guidance low-level winds, with a more uniform guidance consensus otherwise that low-level winds/shear will likely regionally strengthen into this evening. Preceding the surface low, a warm front will effectively shift north-northeastward from western/northern Tennessee across Kentucky toward the Ohio River, oriented generally parallel to the river later today, with increasingly prevalent lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints within the nearby warm sector. Cloud breaks and a steady warming of the boundary layer will promote an increase and intensification of storms this afternoon. Enlarged low-level hodographs, especially in proximity to the warm front, and on the east-southeast periphery of the surface wave, will support semi-discrete rotating storms/supercells capable of tornadoes this afternoon through at least early/mid-evening, particularly within a corridor across northwest Tennessee, much of Kentucky, into southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and southern Ohio. Even with a gradual wane in boundary layer buoyancy and low-level parcel accelerations, at least some potential for wind damage and/or tornado risk will continue through the late-night hours northeastward across Ohio toward the Lake Erie vicinity. ...New England... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and mid-level speed max will influence the region, with increasing thunderstorm development expected this afternoon along a weak/remnant front, with additional influence by higher terrain and differential heating. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two can be expected, with wind gusts of 50-65 mph and severe hail possible this afternoon through around sunset. ...New Mexico... The region will be influenced by a relatively moist air mass over interior areas along with a belt of modestly strong northwesterly flow aloft. Thunderstorm development should semi-focus this afternoon near the Raton Mesa as well as the Gila National Forest vicinity, with storms subsequently generally moving south. Steep lapse rates and sufficient moisture/buoyancy, in the presence of moderately strong/vertically veering wind profiles, may allow for some strong to locally severe storms this afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible this afternoon into tonight across the lower Ohio Valley in association with the remnants of Beryl. ...20Z Update... ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Buoyancy continues to increase across the Lower/Middle OH Valley, downstream of the surface low centered about 35 miles southwest of PAH. There also appears to be a corridor of slightly better low-level (i.e. dewpoints around 76/77 deg F) immediately downstream of this low over southwest KY. General expectation is that thunderstorm coverage will increase over the next few hours, with the greatest coverage anticipated across central and northern KY/southern IN vicinity. Area VAD profiles continue to show moderate low to mid-level flow atop the modest southerly/southeasterly surface winds, supporting the potential for tornadoes and/or damaging gusts within any of the deeper, more persistent updrafts. ...New England... As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1564, splitting marginal supercells capable of isolated large hail and damaging winds remain possible across the region this afternoon and into this evening. ...New Mexico... Forecast outlined previously (appended below) remains valid, with thunderstorm development expected to increase this afternoon and evening across the higher terrain of NM. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two are possible. ..Mosier.. 07/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024/ ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Beryl has become a post-tropical cyclone with its remnant surface circulation (1004 MB) shifting northeastward across the Mid-South this morning, and it will continue toward the confluence of the Ohio/Mississippi Rivers today and Wabash Valley vicinity of southern Illinois and central/southern Indiana tonight. Short-term global/mesoscale guidance varies on the strength of 2-3km AGL winds diurnally, but recent WSR-88D VWP data from Memphis substantiates the possibility of somewhat-stronger-than-guidance low-level winds, with a more uniform guidance consensus otherwise that low-level winds/shear will likely regionally strengthen into this evening. Preceding the surface low, a warm front will effectively shift north-northeastward from western/northern Tennessee across Kentucky toward the Ohio River, oriented generally parallel to the river later today, with increasingly prevalent lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints within the nearby warm sector. Cloud breaks and a steady warming of the boundary layer will promote an increase and intensification of storms this afternoon. Enlarged low-level hodographs, especially in proximity to the warm front, and on the east-southeast periphery of the surface wave, will support semi-discrete rotating storms/supercells capable of tornadoes this afternoon through at least early/mid-evening, particularly within a corridor across northwest Tennessee, much of Kentucky, into southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and southern Ohio. Even with a gradual wane in boundary layer buoyancy and low-level parcel accelerations, at least some potential for wind damage and/or tornado risk will continue through the late-night hours northeastward across Ohio toward the Lake Erie vicinity. ...New England... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and mid-level speed max will influence the region, with increasing thunderstorm development expected this afternoon along a weak/remnant front, with additional influence by higher terrain and differential heating. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two can be expected, with wind gusts of 50-65 mph and severe hail possible this afternoon through around sunset. ...New Mexico... The region will be influenced by a relatively moist air mass over interior areas along with a belt of modestly strong northwesterly flow aloft. Thunderstorm development should semi-focus this afternoon near the Raton Mesa as well as the Gila National Forest vicinity, with storms subsequently generally moving south. Steep lapse rates and sufficient moisture/buoyancy, in the presence of moderately strong/vertically veering wind profiles, may allow for some strong to locally severe storms this afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible this afternoon into tonight across the lower Ohio Valley in association with the remnants of Beryl. ...20Z Update... ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Buoyancy continues to increase across the Lower/Middle OH Valley, downstream of the surface low centered about 35 miles southwest of PAH. There also appears to be a corridor of slightly better low-level (i.e. dewpoints around 76/77 deg F) immediately downstream of this low over southwest KY. General expectation is that thunderstorm coverage will increase over the next few hours, with the greatest coverage anticipated across central and northern KY/southern IN vicinity. Area VAD profiles continue to show moderate low to mid-level flow atop the modest southerly/southeasterly surface winds, supporting the potential for tornadoes and/or damaging gusts within any of the deeper, more persistent updrafts. ...New England... As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1564, splitting marginal supercells capable of isolated large hail and damaging winds remain possible across the region this afternoon and into this evening. ...New Mexico... Forecast outlined previously (appended below) remains valid, with thunderstorm development expected to increase this afternoon and evening across the higher terrain of NM. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two are possible. ..Mosier.. 07/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024/ ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Beryl has become a post-tropical cyclone with its remnant surface circulation (1004 MB) shifting northeastward across the Mid-South this morning, and it will continue toward the confluence of the Ohio/Mississippi Rivers today and Wabash Valley vicinity of southern Illinois and central/southern Indiana tonight. Short-term global/mesoscale guidance varies on the strength of 2-3km AGL winds diurnally, but recent WSR-88D VWP data from Memphis substantiates the possibility of somewhat-stronger-than-guidance low-level winds, with a more uniform guidance consensus otherwise that low-level winds/shear will likely regionally strengthen into this evening. Preceding the surface low, a warm front will effectively shift north-northeastward from western/northern Tennessee across Kentucky toward the Ohio River, oriented generally parallel to the river later today, with increasingly prevalent lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints within the nearby warm sector. Cloud breaks and a steady warming of the boundary layer will promote an increase and intensification of storms this afternoon. Enlarged low-level hodographs, especially in proximity to the warm front, and on the east-southeast periphery of the surface wave, will support semi-discrete rotating storms/supercells capable of tornadoes this afternoon through at least early/mid-evening, particularly within a corridor across northwest Tennessee, much of Kentucky, into southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and southern Ohio. Even with a gradual wane in boundary layer buoyancy and low-level parcel accelerations, at least some potential for wind damage and/or tornado risk will continue through the late-night hours northeastward across Ohio toward the Lake Erie vicinity. ...New England... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and mid-level speed max will influence the region, with increasing thunderstorm development expected this afternoon along a weak/remnant front, with additional influence by higher terrain and differential heating. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two can be expected, with wind gusts of 50-65 mph and severe hail possible this afternoon through around sunset. ...New Mexico... The region will be influenced by a relatively moist air mass over interior areas along with a belt of modestly strong northwesterly flow aloft. Thunderstorm development should semi-focus this afternoon near the Raton Mesa as well as the Gila National Forest vicinity, with storms subsequently generally moving south. Steep lapse rates and sufficient moisture/buoyancy, in the presence of moderately strong/vertically veering wind profiles, may allow for some strong to locally severe storms this afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible this afternoon into tonight across the lower Ohio Valley in association with the remnants of Beryl. ...20Z Update... ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Buoyancy continues to increase across the Lower/Middle OH Valley, downstream of the surface low centered about 35 miles southwest of PAH. There also appears to be a corridor of slightly better low-level (i.e. dewpoints around 76/77 deg F) immediately downstream of this low over southwest KY. General expectation is that thunderstorm coverage will increase over the next few hours, with the greatest coverage anticipated across central and northern KY/southern IN vicinity. Area VAD profiles continue to show moderate low to mid-level flow atop the modest southerly/southeasterly surface winds, supporting the potential for tornadoes and/or damaging gusts within any of the deeper, more persistent updrafts. ...New England... As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1564, splitting marginal supercells capable of isolated large hail and damaging winds remain possible across the region this afternoon and into this evening. ...New Mexico... Forecast outlined previously (appended below) remains valid, with thunderstorm development expected to increase this afternoon and evening across the higher terrain of NM. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two are possible. ..Mosier.. 07/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024/ ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Beryl has become a post-tropical cyclone with its remnant surface circulation (1004 MB) shifting northeastward across the Mid-South this morning, and it will continue toward the confluence of the Ohio/Mississippi Rivers today and Wabash Valley vicinity of southern Illinois and central/southern Indiana tonight. Short-term global/mesoscale guidance varies on the strength of 2-3km AGL winds diurnally, but recent WSR-88D VWP data from Memphis substantiates the possibility of somewhat-stronger-than-guidance low-level winds, with a more uniform guidance consensus otherwise that low-level winds/shear will likely regionally strengthen into this evening. Preceding the surface low, a warm front will effectively shift north-northeastward from western/northern Tennessee across Kentucky toward the Ohio River, oriented generally parallel to the river later today, with increasingly prevalent lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints within the nearby warm sector. Cloud breaks and a steady warming of the boundary layer will promote an increase and intensification of storms this afternoon. Enlarged low-level hodographs, especially in proximity to the warm front, and on the east-southeast periphery of the surface wave, will support semi-discrete rotating storms/supercells capable of tornadoes this afternoon through at least early/mid-evening, particularly within a corridor across northwest Tennessee, much of Kentucky, into southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and southern Ohio. Even with a gradual wane in boundary layer buoyancy and low-level parcel accelerations, at least some potential for wind damage and/or tornado risk will continue through the late-night hours northeastward across Ohio toward the Lake Erie vicinity. ...New England... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and mid-level speed max will influence the region, with increasing thunderstorm development expected this afternoon along a weak/remnant front, with additional influence by higher terrain and differential heating. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two can be expected, with wind gusts of 50-65 mph and severe hail possible this afternoon through around sunset. ...New Mexico... The region will be influenced by a relatively moist air mass over interior areas along with a belt of modestly strong northwesterly flow aloft. Thunderstorm development should semi-focus this afternoon near the Raton Mesa as well as the Gila National Forest vicinity, with storms subsequently generally moving south. Steep lapse rates and sufficient moisture/buoyancy, in the presence of moderately strong/vertically veering wind profiles, may allow for some strong to locally severe storms this afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible this afternoon into tonight across the lower Ohio Valley in association with the remnants of Beryl. ...20Z Update... ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Buoyancy continues to increase across the Lower/Middle OH Valley, downstream of the surface low centered about 35 miles southwest of PAH. There also appears to be a corridor of slightly better low-level (i.e. dewpoints around 76/77 deg F) immediately downstream of this low over southwest KY. General expectation is that thunderstorm coverage will increase over the next few hours, with the greatest coverage anticipated across central and northern KY/southern IN vicinity. Area VAD profiles continue to show moderate low to mid-level flow atop the modest southerly/southeasterly surface winds, supporting the potential for tornadoes and/or damaging gusts within any of the deeper, more persistent updrafts. ...New England... As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1564, splitting marginal supercells capable of isolated large hail and damaging winds remain possible across the region this afternoon and into this evening. ...New Mexico... Forecast outlined previously (appended below) remains valid, with thunderstorm development expected to increase this afternoon and evening across the higher terrain of NM. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two are possible. ..Mosier.. 07/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024/ ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Beryl has become a post-tropical cyclone with its remnant surface circulation (1004 MB) shifting northeastward across the Mid-South this morning, and it will continue toward the confluence of the Ohio/Mississippi Rivers today and Wabash Valley vicinity of southern Illinois and central/southern Indiana tonight. Short-term global/mesoscale guidance varies on the strength of 2-3km AGL winds diurnally, but recent WSR-88D VWP data from Memphis substantiates the possibility of somewhat-stronger-than-guidance low-level winds, with a more uniform guidance consensus otherwise that low-level winds/shear will likely regionally strengthen into this evening. Preceding the surface low, a warm front will effectively shift north-northeastward from western/northern Tennessee across Kentucky toward the Ohio River, oriented generally parallel to the river later today, with increasingly prevalent lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints within the nearby warm sector. Cloud breaks and a steady warming of the boundary layer will promote an increase and intensification of storms this afternoon. Enlarged low-level hodographs, especially in proximity to the warm front, and on the east-southeast periphery of the surface wave, will support semi-discrete rotating storms/supercells capable of tornadoes this afternoon through at least early/mid-evening, particularly within a corridor across northwest Tennessee, much of Kentucky, into southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and southern Ohio. Even with a gradual wane in boundary layer buoyancy and low-level parcel accelerations, at least some potential for wind damage and/or tornado risk will continue through the late-night hours northeastward across Ohio toward the Lake Erie vicinity. ...New England... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and mid-level speed max will influence the region, with increasing thunderstorm development expected this afternoon along a weak/remnant front, with additional influence by higher terrain and differential heating. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two can be expected, with wind gusts of 50-65 mph and severe hail possible this afternoon through around sunset. ...New Mexico... The region will be influenced by a relatively moist air mass over interior areas along with a belt of modestly strong northwesterly flow aloft. Thunderstorm development should semi-focus this afternoon near the Raton Mesa as well as the Gila National Forest vicinity, with storms subsequently generally moving south. Steep lapse rates and sufficient moisture/buoyancy, in the presence of moderately strong/vertically veering wind profiles, may allow for some strong to locally severe storms this afternoon through early evening. Read more

MD 1564 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 1564 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Areas affected...Portions of New England Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 091745Z - 091945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Splitting marginal supercells will be capable of isolated large hail and damaging winds this afternoon. A watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...Ahead of a low amplitude mid-level shortwave trough, convection has been gradually deepening in New England as temperatures have risen into low to mid 80s F. While severe surface observations are showing low 70s F dewpoints, some mixing is expected and dewpoints will likely setting into the upper 60S F. Lapse rates aloft are quite weak, but the moist airmass will support 500 to perhaps around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE later this afternoon. Hodographs are generally long and straight, though modest low-level curvature is evident on the KGYX VAD. The wind profile will support splitting supercells, though the weak lapse rates aloft should moderate storm intensity. The overall thinking is that as storms gradually intensify they will be capable of large hail (1-1.5 in.) and isolated damaging winds (45-60 mph). Per the KGYX VAD, low-level shear is enough to support weak low-level rotation in the strongest storms, but the tornado threat is still expected to be very low. ..Wendt/Guyer.. 07/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY... LAT...LON 42577395 43857372 44637200 45226953 45316770 45036737 44486866 43397059 42447097 41917157 41807308 41897357 42577395 Read more

WW 0516 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0516 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Jul 9 17:41:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...20Z Update... Portions of NW Arizona may experience some isolated dry thunderstorms, but fuels are only modestly receptive and the threat is too localized for additional highlight areas at this time. No further forecast updates are necessary, as current thinking remains unchanged. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strengthening west-southwesterly mid-level flow will impinge across the top of the western US ridge on Wednesday, leading to gusty westerly surface winds along and east of the Cascades within the Columbia Basin. Fuels within this region are critically dry, with several days of very warm and dry condition preceding the increase in surface winds. Elevated to Critical conditions are expected by the afternoon, as relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent will overlap with sustained winds 15-20 mph (locally stronger). As Critical conditions appear to be fairly localized, an Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...20Z Update... Portions of NW Arizona may experience some isolated dry thunderstorms, but fuels are only modestly receptive and the threat is too localized for additional highlight areas at this time. No further forecast updates are necessary, as current thinking remains unchanged. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strengthening west-southwesterly mid-level flow will impinge across the top of the western US ridge on Wednesday, leading to gusty westerly surface winds along and east of the Cascades within the Columbia Basin. Fuels within this region are critically dry, with several days of very warm and dry condition preceding the increase in surface winds. Elevated to Critical conditions are expected by the afternoon, as relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent will overlap with sustained winds 15-20 mph (locally stronger). As Critical conditions appear to be fairly localized, an Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...20Z Update... Portions of NW Arizona may experience some isolated dry thunderstorms, but fuels are only modestly receptive and the threat is too localized for additional highlight areas at this time. No further forecast updates are necessary, as current thinking remains unchanged. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strengthening west-southwesterly mid-level flow will impinge across the top of the western US ridge on Wednesday, leading to gusty westerly surface winds along and east of the Cascades within the Columbia Basin. Fuels within this region are critically dry, with several days of very warm and dry condition preceding the increase in surface winds. Elevated to Critical conditions are expected by the afternoon, as relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent will overlap with sustained winds 15-20 mph (locally stronger). As Critical conditions appear to be fairly localized, an Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...20Z Update... Portions of NW Arizona may experience some isolated dry thunderstorms, but fuels are only modestly receptive and the threat is too localized for additional highlight areas at this time. No further forecast updates are necessary, as current thinking remains unchanged. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strengthening west-southwesterly mid-level flow will impinge across the top of the western US ridge on Wednesday, leading to gusty westerly surface winds along and east of the Cascades within the Columbia Basin. Fuels within this region are critically dry, with several days of very warm and dry condition preceding the increase in surface winds. Elevated to Critical conditions are expected by the afternoon, as relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent will overlap with sustained winds 15-20 mph (locally stronger). As Critical conditions appear to be fairly localized, an Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...20Z Update... Portions of NW Arizona may experience some isolated dry thunderstorms, but fuels are only modestly receptive and the threat is too localized for additional highlight areas at this time. No further forecast updates are necessary, as current thinking remains unchanged. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strengthening west-southwesterly mid-level flow will impinge across the top of the western US ridge on Wednesday, leading to gusty westerly surface winds along and east of the Cascades within the Columbia Basin. Fuels within this region are critically dry, with several days of very warm and dry condition preceding the increase in surface winds. Elevated to Critical conditions are expected by the afternoon, as relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent will overlap with sustained winds 15-20 mph (locally stronger). As Critical conditions appear to be fairly localized, an Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...20Z Update... Portions of NW Arizona may experience some isolated dry thunderstorms, but fuels are only modestly receptive and the threat is too localized for additional highlight areas at this time. No further forecast updates are necessary, as current thinking remains unchanged. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strengthening west-southwesterly mid-level flow will impinge across the top of the western US ridge on Wednesday, leading to gusty westerly surface winds along and east of the Cascades within the Columbia Basin. Fuels within this region are critically dry, with several days of very warm and dry condition preceding the increase in surface winds. Elevated to Critical conditions are expected by the afternoon, as relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent will overlap with sustained winds 15-20 mph (locally stronger). As Critical conditions appear to be fairly localized, an Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...20Z Update... Portions of NW Arizona may experience some isolated dry thunderstorms, but fuels are only modestly receptive and the threat is too localized for additional highlight areas at this time. No further forecast updates are necessary, as current thinking remains unchanged. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strengthening west-southwesterly mid-level flow will impinge across the top of the western US ridge on Wednesday, leading to gusty westerly surface winds along and east of the Cascades within the Columbia Basin. Fuels within this region are critically dry, with several days of very warm and dry condition preceding the increase in surface winds. Elevated to Critical conditions are expected by the afternoon, as relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent will overlap with sustained winds 15-20 mph (locally stronger). As Critical conditions appear to be fairly localized, an Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more