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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Between a large-scale ridge over the Great Basin and a trough moving into British Columbia, west-southwesterly midlevel flow will strengthen across the Northwest -- where a warm/dry antecedent airmass will be in place. This will promote breezy/gusty westerly surface winds and low RH along/east of the Cascades in WA and OR on Day 3/Wednesday. This will favor elevated fire-weather conditions, with locally critical conditions expected primarily in the Cascade gaps. 70-percent probabilities have been withheld, given the expectation for only locally critical conditions. Dry/breezy conditions may persist across parts of the Northwest and CA through the remainder of the forecast period, though the potential for any more than locally critical conditions appears too low for additional probabilities. On Day 4/Thursday, broad/enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the northern Great Basin (along the northern periphery of the ridge), yielding dry/breezy conditions across southern ID. Elevated to locally critical conditions are expected (especially along the Snake River Plain), and 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added for this. By this weekend, a midlevel moisture plume will spread northward into the Northwest -- along the western periphery of the large-scale ridge. At the same time, medium-range guidance depicts a midlevel trough glancing the Northwest, which will support increasing thunderstorm potential across the region. Continued model differences on the evolution of the midlevel trough casts uncertainty on this scenario, though trends will be monitored for possible Dry Thunderstorm highlights in future outlooks. Farther south, thunderstorm potential will also increase across parts of the southern Great Basin late this week into the weekend, along the northern edge of the richer midlevel moisture. While dry thunderstorms will be possible atop modestly receptive fuels, a lack of focused large-scale ascent limits overall forecast confidence for now. ..Weinman/Halbert.. 07/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Between a large-scale ridge over the Great Basin and a trough moving into British Columbia, west-southwesterly midlevel flow will strengthen across the Northwest -- where a warm/dry antecedent airmass will be in place. This will promote breezy/gusty westerly surface winds and low RH along/east of the Cascades in WA and OR on Day 3/Wednesday. This will favor elevated fire-weather conditions, with locally critical conditions expected primarily in the Cascade gaps. 70-percent probabilities have been withheld, given the expectation for only locally critical conditions. Dry/breezy conditions may persist across parts of the Northwest and CA through the remainder of the forecast period, though the potential for any more than locally critical conditions appears too low for additional probabilities. On Day 4/Thursday, broad/enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the northern Great Basin (along the northern periphery of the ridge), yielding dry/breezy conditions across southern ID. Elevated to locally critical conditions are expected (especially along the Snake River Plain), and 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added for this. By this weekend, a midlevel moisture plume will spread northward into the Northwest -- along the western periphery of the large-scale ridge. At the same time, medium-range guidance depicts a midlevel trough glancing the Northwest, which will support increasing thunderstorm potential across the region. Continued model differences on the evolution of the midlevel trough casts uncertainty on this scenario, though trends will be monitored for possible Dry Thunderstorm highlights in future outlooks. Farther south, thunderstorm potential will also increase across parts of the southern Great Basin late this week into the weekend, along the northern edge of the richer midlevel moisture. While dry thunderstorms will be possible atop modestly receptive fuels, a lack of focused large-scale ascent limits overall forecast confidence for now. ..Weinman/Halbert.. 07/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Between a large-scale ridge over the Great Basin and a trough moving into British Columbia, west-southwesterly midlevel flow will strengthen across the Northwest -- where a warm/dry antecedent airmass will be in place. This will promote breezy/gusty westerly surface winds and low RH along/east of the Cascades in WA and OR on Day 3/Wednesday. This will favor elevated fire-weather conditions, with locally critical conditions expected primarily in the Cascade gaps. 70-percent probabilities have been withheld, given the expectation for only locally critical conditions. Dry/breezy conditions may persist across parts of the Northwest and CA through the remainder of the forecast period, though the potential for any more than locally critical conditions appears too low for additional probabilities. On Day 4/Thursday, broad/enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the northern Great Basin (along the northern periphery of the ridge), yielding dry/breezy conditions across southern ID. Elevated to locally critical conditions are expected (especially along the Snake River Plain), and 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added for this. By this weekend, a midlevel moisture plume will spread northward into the Northwest -- along the western periphery of the large-scale ridge. At the same time, medium-range guidance depicts a midlevel trough glancing the Northwest, which will support increasing thunderstorm potential across the region. Continued model differences on the evolution of the midlevel trough casts uncertainty on this scenario, though trends will be monitored for possible Dry Thunderstorm highlights in future outlooks. Farther south, thunderstorm potential will also increase across parts of the southern Great Basin late this week into the weekend, along the northern edge of the richer midlevel moisture. While dry thunderstorms will be possible atop modestly receptive fuels, a lack of focused large-scale ascent limits overall forecast confidence for now. ..Weinman/Halbert.. 07/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Between a large-scale ridge over the Great Basin and a trough moving into British Columbia, west-southwesterly midlevel flow will strengthen across the Northwest -- where a warm/dry antecedent airmass will be in place. This will promote breezy/gusty westerly surface winds and low RH along/east of the Cascades in WA and OR on Day 3/Wednesday. This will favor elevated fire-weather conditions, with locally critical conditions expected primarily in the Cascade gaps. 70-percent probabilities have been withheld, given the expectation for only locally critical conditions. Dry/breezy conditions may persist across parts of the Northwest and CA through the remainder of the forecast period, though the potential for any more than locally critical conditions appears too low for additional probabilities. On Day 4/Thursday, broad/enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the northern Great Basin (along the northern periphery of the ridge), yielding dry/breezy conditions across southern ID. Elevated to locally critical conditions are expected (especially along the Snake River Plain), and 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added for this. By this weekend, a midlevel moisture plume will spread northward into the Northwest -- along the western periphery of the large-scale ridge. At the same time, medium-range guidance depicts a midlevel trough glancing the Northwest, which will support increasing thunderstorm potential across the region. Continued model differences on the evolution of the midlevel trough casts uncertainty on this scenario, though trends will be monitored for possible Dry Thunderstorm highlights in future outlooks. Farther south, thunderstorm potential will also increase across parts of the southern Great Basin late this week into the weekend, along the northern edge of the richer midlevel moisture. While dry thunderstorms will be possible atop modestly receptive fuels, a lack of focused large-scale ascent limits overall forecast confidence for now. ..Weinman/Halbert.. 07/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Between a large-scale ridge over the Great Basin and a trough moving into British Columbia, west-southwesterly midlevel flow will strengthen across the Northwest -- where a warm/dry antecedent airmass will be in place. This will promote breezy/gusty westerly surface winds and low RH along/east of the Cascades in WA and OR on Day 3/Wednesday. This will favor elevated fire-weather conditions, with locally critical conditions expected primarily in the Cascade gaps. 70-percent probabilities have been withheld, given the expectation for only locally critical conditions. Dry/breezy conditions may persist across parts of the Northwest and CA through the remainder of the forecast period, though the potential for any more than locally critical conditions appears too low for additional probabilities. On Day 4/Thursday, broad/enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the northern Great Basin (along the northern periphery of the ridge), yielding dry/breezy conditions across southern ID. Elevated to locally critical conditions are expected (especially along the Snake River Plain), and 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added for this. By this weekend, a midlevel moisture plume will spread northward into the Northwest -- along the western periphery of the large-scale ridge. At the same time, medium-range guidance depicts a midlevel trough glancing the Northwest, which will support increasing thunderstorm potential across the region. Continued model differences on the evolution of the midlevel trough casts uncertainty on this scenario, though trends will be monitored for possible Dry Thunderstorm highlights in future outlooks. Farther south, thunderstorm potential will also increase across parts of the southern Great Basin late this week into the weekend, along the northern edge of the richer midlevel moisture. While dry thunderstorms will be possible atop modestly receptive fuels, a lack of focused large-scale ascent limits overall forecast confidence for now. ..Weinman/Halbert.. 07/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Between a large-scale ridge over the Great Basin and a trough moving into British Columbia, west-southwesterly midlevel flow will strengthen across the Northwest -- where a warm/dry antecedent airmass will be in place. This will promote breezy/gusty westerly surface winds and low RH along/east of the Cascades in WA and OR on Day 3/Wednesday. This will favor elevated fire-weather conditions, with locally critical conditions expected primarily in the Cascade gaps. 70-percent probabilities have been withheld, given the expectation for only locally critical conditions. Dry/breezy conditions may persist across parts of the Northwest and CA through the remainder of the forecast period, though the potential for any more than locally critical conditions appears too low for additional probabilities. On Day 4/Thursday, broad/enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the northern Great Basin (along the northern periphery of the ridge), yielding dry/breezy conditions across southern ID. Elevated to locally critical conditions are expected (especially along the Snake River Plain), and 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added for this. By this weekend, a midlevel moisture plume will spread northward into the Northwest -- along the western periphery of the large-scale ridge. At the same time, medium-range guidance depicts a midlevel trough glancing the Northwest, which will support increasing thunderstorm potential across the region. Continued model differences on the evolution of the midlevel trough casts uncertainty on this scenario, though trends will be monitored for possible Dry Thunderstorm highlights in future outlooks. Farther south, thunderstorm potential will also increase across parts of the southern Great Basin late this week into the weekend, along the northern edge of the richer midlevel moisture. While dry thunderstorms will be possible atop modestly receptive fuels, a lack of focused large-scale ascent limits overall forecast confidence for now. ..Weinman/Halbert.. 07/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1560 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 514... FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...WESTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1560 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Areas affected...parts of northeastern Texas...western Louisiana...southwestern Arkansas Concerning...Tornado Watch 514... Valid 081948Z - 082145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 514 continues. SUMMARY...An area of potentially tornadic supercells probably will be maintained while spreading north-northeastward in advance of the remnants of Beryl through 4-6 PM CDT. An additional tornado watch may be needed across parts of southwestern into central Arkansas shortly. DISCUSSION...The low-level circulation center of Beryl is now migrating north-northeast of Huntsville, with strongest 2 hour surface pressure rises now inland of the upper Texas coast and falls north of Huntsville shifting toward the Ark-La-Tex. Beneath the mid-level warm core, evaporatively cooled air is spreading out at the surface and stabilizing an enlarging area of eastern Texas. However, upper 70s surface dew points on its northeastern and eastern periphery are maintaining weak to moderate CAPE, in the presence of large clockwise-curved low-level hodographs beneath 50+ kt south to southeasterly flow around 850 mb. This has contributed to the evolution of a number of confirmed and potentially tornadic supercells, largely focused within the more strongly convergent right front quadrant (with respect to storm motion). While this forcing spreads north through east of the Shreveport vicinity through much of southwestern Arkansas by 21-23Z, the risk for tornadoes appears likely to persist in the peak late afternoon boundary-layer instability. ..Kerr.. 07/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 33569395 33869261 30959252 30869322 31789352 32409450 33569395 Read more

WW 0515 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0515 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0515 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0515 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0515 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0515 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0515 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0515 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 515 TORNADO AR 082055Z - 090500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 515 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 355 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern and Central Arkansas * Effective this Monday afternoon from 355 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A moist air mass and the remnants of Beryl and its peripheral strong wind field will overspread the ArkLaTex and broader Arkansas through tonight, with an increasing tornado potential into this evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles south of Hot Springs AR to 35 miles north northwest of Little Rock AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 514... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 14040. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0514 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 514 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW BPT TO 35 WSW POE TO 50 W IER TO 15 SSE GGG TO 20 ENE TYR. ..KERR..07/08/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV...LCH...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 514 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC027-057-073-081-091-099-139-082140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLUMBIA HEMPSTEAD LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER MILLER NEVADA UNION LAC003-011-013-015-017-019-023-027-031-043-049-053-061-069-079- 081-085-111-115-119-127-082140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BEAUREGARD BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CALCASIEU CAMERON CLAIBORNE DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON JEFFERSON DAVIS LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES RAPIDES RED RIVER SABINE UNION VERNON WEBSTER WINN Read more

WW 0514 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 514 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW BPT TO 35 WSW POE TO 50 W IER TO 15 SSE GGG TO 20 ENE TYR. ..KERR..07/08/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV...LCH...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 514 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC027-057-073-081-091-099-139-082140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLUMBIA HEMPSTEAD LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER MILLER NEVADA UNION LAC003-011-013-015-017-019-023-027-031-043-049-053-061-069-079- 081-085-111-115-119-127-082140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BEAUREGARD BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CALCASIEU CAMERON CLAIBORNE DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON JEFFERSON DAVIS LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES RAPIDES RED RIVER SABINE UNION VERNON WEBSTER WINN Read more

WW 0514 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 514 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW BPT TO 35 WSW POE TO 50 W IER TO 15 SSE GGG TO 20 ENE TYR. ..KERR..07/08/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV...LCH...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 514 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC027-057-073-081-091-099-139-082140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLUMBIA HEMPSTEAD LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER MILLER NEVADA UNION LAC003-011-013-015-017-019-023-027-031-043-049-053-061-069-079- 081-085-111-115-119-127-082140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BEAUREGARD BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CALCASIEU CAMERON CLAIBORNE DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON JEFFERSON DAVIS LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES RAPIDES RED RIVER SABINE UNION VERNON WEBSTER WINN Read more

WW 0514 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 514 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW BPT TO 35 WSW POE TO 50 W IER TO 15 SSE GGG TO 20 ENE TYR. ..KERR..07/08/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV...LCH...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 514 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC027-057-073-081-091-099-139-082140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLUMBIA HEMPSTEAD LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER MILLER NEVADA UNION LAC003-011-013-015-017-019-023-027-031-043-049-053-061-069-079- 081-085-111-115-119-127-082140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BEAUREGARD BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CALCASIEU CAMERON CLAIBORNE DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON JEFFERSON DAVIS LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES RAPIDES RED RIVER SABINE UNION VERNON WEBSTER WINN Read more

WW 514 TORNADO AR LA TX CW 081500Z - 090300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 514 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Arkansas Western and Central Louisiana East and Southeast Texas Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday morning and evening from 1000 AM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes likely Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Gradual daytime destabilization and a strong atmospheric winds associated with the northward movement of Tropical cyclone Beryl will be favorable for low-topped supercells capable of tornadoes through this afternoon and early evening. This risk will mostly be focused across east/southeast Texas and far western Louisiana this morning, but it will expand north-northeastward across additional parts of east/northeast Texas, western/northern Louisiana, and eventually southern Arkansas through late afternoon and evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles southwest of Port Arthur TX to 45 miles west northwest of El Dorado AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 513... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 16040. ...Guyer Read more

MD 1559 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 1559 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Areas affected...North-central New Mexico Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 081833Z - 082030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated, marginally severe hail and strong/severe wind gusts are possible as storms develop and move southeastward. A watch is not likely. DISCUSSION...Surface dewpoints have help in the upper 40s to low 50s F in north-central New Mexico. With very modest mid-level ascent along the base of the departing upper-level trough, a few storms have deepened early this afternoon within the terrain. Effective shear of 30-35 kts will promote some storm organization. Much of the shear is concentrated in the lowest 6 km with fairly minimal shear above that level. Despite steep mid-level lapse rates, hail size should be tempered by this less favorable wind profile. Steep low-level lapse rates will support isolated strong/severe wind gusts as well. Cloud cover and drier air moving into the northeastern plains will likely limit how far southeast this activity will progress this afternoon. ..Wendt/Guyer.. 07/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...GJT... LAT...LON 36490707 37090644 37160462 36280416 35270446 34780531 34750575 34950626 35710695 36490707 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST TX...NORTHWEST LA...AND SOUTHWEST AR... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible today and tonight in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, from eastern Texas into western/northern Louisiana and southern/eastern Arkansas. ...20Z Update... ...East/Northeast TX into Northwest/Central LA and Southern/Eastern AR... Several low-topped supercells have developed with a convective band arcing from Rusk and Gregg Counties in northeast TX to Natchitoches and Winn Parishes in central LA. This intensification appears to be associated with greater low-level convergence and increased buoyancy (particularly in the 0-3 km layer) amid already strong low to mid-level flow. Recently issued MCD #1560 discusses the short-term trends within this area as well. Beryl is forecast to continue northeastward, potentially taking this area of greater storm production into southern/eastern AR. The 5% tornado probabilities were expanded northeastward to account for some increased tornado potential as this area of Beryl moves into more of northeast AR later this evening and tonight. ...Elsewhere... As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1559, isolated and marginally severe hail and strong/severe wind gusts are possible as storms develop and move southeastward across north-central NM. Isolated severe thunderstorms are still anticipated across southwest TX this afternoon and evening, with some large hail and damaging gusts possible. Isolated thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts also remain possible this afternoon and evening from northern WI into northern Lower MI. ..Mosier.. 07/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024/ ...East Texas/ArkLaTex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... Tropical Storm Beryl will continue north-northeastward today across southeast/east Texas and toward the ArkLaTex tonight, with its eastern-peripheral low/mid-level wind field remaining strong through tonight. Embedded circulations continue to occur within the modestly broken convective bands, that will northward-transition and potentially diurnally expand somewhat from east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, and the ArkLaTex vicinity this evening. Several tornadoes are possible especially through early evening, but some tornado/wind damage risk will linger/transition northeastward through late tonight across additional parts of Arkansas/Mid-South and Mississippi Valley. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1558. ...Southwest Texas... A cold front will continue to surge southward across the region, with stronger heating and moderate destabilization occurring across parts of the Transpecos and Big Bend vicinity in the presence of upper 50s/lower 60s F surface dewpoints. Increasing low-level convergence along the front and differential heating over higher terrain should lead to increasing thunderstorm development this afternoon, with some of these storms potentially posing large hail and strong wind gust risks. ...Northern New Mexico/far Southern Colorado... A considerable westward surge of moisture has occurred since yesterday, with the 12z Albuquerque sounding featuring 0.80 inch Precipitable Water. Terrain influences/differential heating over interior New Mexico/southern Colorado will lead to increasing thunderstorm development this afternoon in the presence of as much as 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Storm organization will likely be aided by a moderately strong belt of north-northwesterly winds aloft. Isolated instances of severe hail are expected this afternoon through early evening, along with the possibility of severe-caliber wind gusts. ...Northern Lower Michigan/Lake Michigan vicinity... Gradual destabilization is expected this afternoon in the wake of early day cloud cover and some outflow across the middle part of Lower Michigan. This be within a moist air mass (mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints) ahead of an eastward-moving/weakening front, as a shortwave trough otherwise moves eastward over Lake Superior and northern Ontario. Modestly long/semi-straight hodographs with 30-35 kt effective shear could support some sustained storms/multicells, with a couple instances of wind damage/sub-severe hail possible through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST TX...NORTHWEST LA...AND SOUTHWEST AR... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible today and tonight in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, from eastern Texas into western/northern Louisiana and southern/eastern Arkansas. ...20Z Update... ...East/Northeast TX into Northwest/Central LA and Southern/Eastern AR... Several low-topped supercells have developed with a convective band arcing from Rusk and Gregg Counties in northeast TX to Natchitoches and Winn Parishes in central LA. This intensification appears to be associated with greater low-level convergence and increased buoyancy (particularly in the 0-3 km layer) amid already strong low to mid-level flow. Recently issued MCD #1560 discusses the short-term trends within this area as well. Beryl is forecast to continue northeastward, potentially taking this area of greater storm production into southern/eastern AR. The 5% tornado probabilities were expanded northeastward to account for some increased tornado potential as this area of Beryl moves into more of northeast AR later this evening and tonight. ...Elsewhere... As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1559, isolated and marginally severe hail and strong/severe wind gusts are possible as storms develop and move southeastward across north-central NM. Isolated severe thunderstorms are still anticipated across southwest TX this afternoon and evening, with some large hail and damaging gusts possible. Isolated thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts also remain possible this afternoon and evening from northern WI into northern Lower MI. ..Mosier.. 07/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024/ ...East Texas/ArkLaTex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... Tropical Storm Beryl will continue north-northeastward today across southeast/east Texas and toward the ArkLaTex tonight, with its eastern-peripheral low/mid-level wind field remaining strong through tonight. Embedded circulations continue to occur within the modestly broken convective bands, that will northward-transition and potentially diurnally expand somewhat from east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, and the ArkLaTex vicinity this evening. Several tornadoes are possible especially through early evening, but some tornado/wind damage risk will linger/transition northeastward through late tonight across additional parts of Arkansas/Mid-South and Mississippi Valley. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1558. ...Southwest Texas... A cold front will continue to surge southward across the region, with stronger heating and moderate destabilization occurring across parts of the Transpecos and Big Bend vicinity in the presence of upper 50s/lower 60s F surface dewpoints. Increasing low-level convergence along the front and differential heating over higher terrain should lead to increasing thunderstorm development this afternoon, with some of these storms potentially posing large hail and strong wind gust risks. ...Northern New Mexico/far Southern Colorado... A considerable westward surge of moisture has occurred since yesterday, with the 12z Albuquerque sounding featuring 0.80 inch Precipitable Water. Terrain influences/differential heating over interior New Mexico/southern Colorado will lead to increasing thunderstorm development this afternoon in the presence of as much as 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Storm organization will likely be aided by a moderately strong belt of north-northwesterly winds aloft. Isolated instances of severe hail are expected this afternoon through early evening, along with the possibility of severe-caliber wind gusts. ...Northern Lower Michigan/Lake Michigan vicinity... Gradual destabilization is expected this afternoon in the wake of early day cloud cover and some outflow across the middle part of Lower Michigan. This be within a moist air mass (mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints) ahead of an eastward-moving/weakening front, as a shortwave trough otherwise moves eastward over Lake Superior and northern Ontario. Modestly long/semi-straight hodographs with 30-35 kt effective shear could support some sustained storms/multicells, with a couple instances of wind damage/sub-severe hail possible through early evening. Read more