Aggregator

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely from the Upper Midwest into the Mid Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes region tomorrow (Monday). A focused corridor of damaging winds is possible. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the central Plains as well as south-central/southeast Arizona. ...Synopsis... A complex severe weather scenario is possible across portions of the Midwest tomorrow (Monday). Upper ridging will prevail across the western CONUS as broad cyclonic flow remains in place, centered over the Upper MS Valley. Multiple mid-level impulses will pivot around the cyclonic flow from the Midwest into the Northeast, with a surface lee trough and associated cold front poised to sweep southeastward into the Midwest and OH Valley regions. Multiple areas/rounds of thunderstorm development are expected from the Midwest to the Northeast, with preceding storms exhibiting potential influence on the evolution of subsequent convective complexes. Nonetheless, the latest high-resolution guidance consensus, general synoptic pattern, and regional climatology, all suggest that at least one focused round of organized severe thunderstorms should occur across the Midwest at some point from the late morning to late afternoon hours, perhaps accompanied by a focused corridor of strong to severe wind gusts. Meanwhile, surface high pressure will dominate the Intermountain west, with monsoonal mid-level moisture pivoting around the upper ridge, fostering multiple areas of high-based strong to isolated severe thunderstorms from the Desert Southwest to the central High Plains. ...Midwest into the OH Valley... Multiple convective scenarios may unfold across portions of the Midwest tomorrow, including the possibility of a focused corridor or of severe gusts produced by a bow-echo MCS. By late morning/early afternoon, a pronounced mid-level impulse will quickly traverse the region, overspreading a generally west-to-east oriented surface baroclinic zone. Along this boundary, upper 70s F surface dewpoints will be in place, that in tandem with surface heating, will boost MLCAPE to at least 3500-4500 J/kg. Given strong mid-level westerly flow accompanying the impulse, appreciable low-level shear and modest deep-layer shear is expected, characterized by enlarged and curved low-level hodographs, but short hodographs aloft. This environment climatologically favors the development of a progressive bow-echo capable of producing a focused corridor of severe gusts (perhaps exceeding 75 mph in spots). Furthermore, some HREF members also depict possible bow echo development. However, there are some uncertainties regarding how the bow echo could form, with some members showing a bow echo approaching from MN/IA from Day 1 convection, or from new convective development over central IA. Since multiple rounds of preceding convection may also influence the position of the baroclinic zone and associated gradient of strong to extreme buoyancy, there is some uncertainty as to exactly where a bow echo would materialize and track. A Category 3/Enhanced risk has been introduced in the general region where a bow echo may form, and these highlights may need some adjustments during the Day 1 Outlook to account for baroclinic zone placement, or impacts from preceding convection. 5 percent tornado probabilities have also been added where a bow echo would most likely reach mature stage, where line-end and leading-line/system-scale mesovortices may foster leading-line QLCS tornado potential. However, even in the event that a bow echo does not materialize, a surface cold front will approach the Midwest tomorrow, contributing to linear convective initiation amid strong/extreme buoyancy, where severe gusts will still be of concern. ...Portions of the Northeast... The first in a series of mid-level impulses traversing the cyclonic flow aloft will approach the northern Appalachians by late morning/early afternoon, contributing to increasing thunderstorm coverage during the day. Surface dewpoints exceeding 70 F in several areas, along with modest mid-level lapse rates (perhaps approaching 7 C/km in spots), will result in widespread 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Stronger flow aloft will likely remain west into the OH Valley though, so vertical shear should be modest at best (i.e. bulk effective shear values around 25 kts). Pulse cellular and occasional multicell complexes are possible, accompanied by mainly a damaging gust threat. Storms should gradually weaken around or after sunset. ...Portions of the Central High Plains... Upslope low-level flow by late afternoon/early evening, in tandem with peak afternoon heating, will encourage at least scattered thunderstorm development along the lee of the Rocky Mountains. 30-40 kts of westerly 500 mb flow pivoting around the north side an anticyclone will assist in thunderstorms quickly moving into the central High Plains. Here, thunderstorms will be preceded by a well mixed boundary layer extending up to 700 mb. Surface to 500 mb lapse rates should be in the 8.5-9.5 C/km range, which favors deep-layer convective mixing and associated potential for severe gusts. A Category 2/Slight Risk has been added to portions of the central High Plains where thunderstorm clustering is expected to be greatest (based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus), and where cold-pool mergers are most likely to occur. ...Portions of southern into central Arizona... Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the Mogollon Rim by afternoon peak heating in central AZ. Easterly mid-level flow pivoting around the south side of an anticyclone may assist the storms in moving off of the higher terrain, amid a well-mixed boundary layer. Surface temperatures approaching 100 F ahead of the storms, beneath the monsoonal mid-level moisture, will support MLCAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg in spots. Modest elongation of the hodographs may result in effective bulk shear values approaching 30 kts, which may support sustained multicellular clusters by late afternoon into early evening, accompanied by an isolated severe gust threat. ..Squitieri.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely from the Upper Midwest into the Mid Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes region tomorrow (Monday). A focused corridor of damaging winds is possible. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the central Plains as well as south-central/southeast Arizona. ...Synopsis... A complex severe weather scenario is possible across portions of the Midwest tomorrow (Monday). Upper ridging will prevail across the western CONUS as broad cyclonic flow remains in place, centered over the Upper MS Valley. Multiple mid-level impulses will pivot around the cyclonic flow from the Midwest into the Northeast, with a surface lee trough and associated cold front poised to sweep southeastward into the Midwest and OH Valley regions. Multiple areas/rounds of thunderstorm development are expected from the Midwest to the Northeast, with preceding storms exhibiting potential influence on the evolution of subsequent convective complexes. Nonetheless, the latest high-resolution guidance consensus, general synoptic pattern, and regional climatology, all suggest that at least one focused round of organized severe thunderstorms should occur across the Midwest at some point from the late morning to late afternoon hours, perhaps accompanied by a focused corridor of strong to severe wind gusts. Meanwhile, surface high pressure will dominate the Intermountain west, with monsoonal mid-level moisture pivoting around the upper ridge, fostering multiple areas of high-based strong to isolated severe thunderstorms from the Desert Southwest to the central High Plains. ...Midwest into the OH Valley... Multiple convective scenarios may unfold across portions of the Midwest tomorrow, including the possibility of a focused corridor or of severe gusts produced by a bow-echo MCS. By late morning/early afternoon, a pronounced mid-level impulse will quickly traverse the region, overspreading a generally west-to-east oriented surface baroclinic zone. Along this boundary, upper 70s F surface dewpoints will be in place, that in tandem with surface heating, will boost MLCAPE to at least 3500-4500 J/kg. Given strong mid-level westerly flow accompanying the impulse, appreciable low-level shear and modest deep-layer shear is expected, characterized by enlarged and curved low-level hodographs, but short hodographs aloft. This environment climatologically favors the development of a progressive bow-echo capable of producing a focused corridor of severe gusts (perhaps exceeding 75 mph in spots). Furthermore, some HREF members also depict possible bow echo development. However, there are some uncertainties regarding how the bow echo could form, with some members showing a bow echo approaching from MN/IA from Day 1 convection, or from new convective development over central IA. Since multiple rounds of preceding convection may also influence the position of the baroclinic zone and associated gradient of strong to extreme buoyancy, there is some uncertainty as to exactly where a bow echo would materialize and track. A Category 3/Enhanced risk has been introduced in the general region where a bow echo may form, and these highlights may need some adjustments during the Day 1 Outlook to account for baroclinic zone placement, or impacts from preceding convection. 5 percent tornado probabilities have also been added where a bow echo would most likely reach mature stage, where line-end and leading-line/system-scale mesovortices may foster leading-line QLCS tornado potential. However, even in the event that a bow echo does not materialize, a surface cold front will approach the Midwest tomorrow, contributing to linear convective initiation amid strong/extreme buoyancy, where severe gusts will still be of concern. ...Portions of the Northeast... The first in a series of mid-level impulses traversing the cyclonic flow aloft will approach the northern Appalachians by late morning/early afternoon, contributing to increasing thunderstorm coverage during the day. Surface dewpoints exceeding 70 F in several areas, along with modest mid-level lapse rates (perhaps approaching 7 C/km in spots), will result in widespread 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Stronger flow aloft will likely remain west into the OH Valley though, so vertical shear should be modest at best (i.e. bulk effective shear values around 25 kts). Pulse cellular and occasional multicell complexes are possible, accompanied by mainly a damaging gust threat. Storms should gradually weaken around or after sunset. ...Portions of the Central High Plains... Upslope low-level flow by late afternoon/early evening, in tandem with peak afternoon heating, will encourage at least scattered thunderstorm development along the lee of the Rocky Mountains. 30-40 kts of westerly 500 mb flow pivoting around the north side an anticyclone will assist in thunderstorms quickly moving into the central High Plains. Here, thunderstorms will be preceded by a well mixed boundary layer extending up to 700 mb. Surface to 500 mb lapse rates should be in the 8.5-9.5 C/km range, which favors deep-layer convective mixing and associated potential for severe gusts. A Category 2/Slight Risk has been added to portions of the central High Plains where thunderstorm clustering is expected to be greatest (based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus), and where cold-pool mergers are most likely to occur. ...Portions of southern into central Arizona... Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the Mogollon Rim by afternoon peak heating in central AZ. Easterly mid-level flow pivoting around the south side of an anticyclone may assist the storms in moving off of the higher terrain, amid a well-mixed boundary layer. Surface temperatures approaching 100 F ahead of the storms, beneath the monsoonal mid-level moisture, will support MLCAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg in spots. Modest elongation of the hodographs may result in effective bulk shear values approaching 30 kts, which may support sustained multicellular clusters by late afternoon into early evening, accompanied by an isolated severe gust threat. ..Squitieri.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely from the Upper Midwest into the Mid Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes region tomorrow (Monday). A focused corridor of damaging winds is possible. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the central Plains as well as south-central/southeast Arizona. ...Synopsis... A complex severe weather scenario is possible across portions of the Midwest tomorrow (Monday). Upper ridging will prevail across the western CONUS as broad cyclonic flow remains in place, centered over the Upper MS Valley. Multiple mid-level impulses will pivot around the cyclonic flow from the Midwest into the Northeast, with a surface lee trough and associated cold front poised to sweep southeastward into the Midwest and OH Valley regions. Multiple areas/rounds of thunderstorm development are expected from the Midwest to the Northeast, with preceding storms exhibiting potential influence on the evolution of subsequent convective complexes. Nonetheless, the latest high-resolution guidance consensus, general synoptic pattern, and regional climatology, all suggest that at least one focused round of organized severe thunderstorms should occur across the Midwest at some point from the late morning to late afternoon hours, perhaps accompanied by a focused corridor of strong to severe wind gusts. Meanwhile, surface high pressure will dominate the Intermountain west, with monsoonal mid-level moisture pivoting around the upper ridge, fostering multiple areas of high-based strong to isolated severe thunderstorms from the Desert Southwest to the central High Plains. ...Midwest into the OH Valley... Multiple convective scenarios may unfold across portions of the Midwest tomorrow, including the possibility of a focused corridor or of severe gusts produced by a bow-echo MCS. By late morning/early afternoon, a pronounced mid-level impulse will quickly traverse the region, overspreading a generally west-to-east oriented surface baroclinic zone. Along this boundary, upper 70s F surface dewpoints will be in place, that in tandem with surface heating, will boost MLCAPE to at least 3500-4500 J/kg. Given strong mid-level westerly flow accompanying the impulse, appreciable low-level shear and modest deep-layer shear is expected, characterized by enlarged and curved low-level hodographs, but short hodographs aloft. This environment climatologically favors the development of a progressive bow-echo capable of producing a focused corridor of severe gusts (perhaps exceeding 75 mph in spots). Furthermore, some HREF members also depict possible bow echo development. However, there are some uncertainties regarding how the bow echo could form, with some members showing a bow echo approaching from MN/IA from Day 1 convection, or from new convective development over central IA. Since multiple rounds of preceding convection may also influence the position of the baroclinic zone and associated gradient of strong to extreme buoyancy, there is some uncertainty as to exactly where a bow echo would materialize and track. A Category 3/Enhanced risk has been introduced in the general region where a bow echo may form, and these highlights may need some adjustments during the Day 1 Outlook to account for baroclinic zone placement, or impacts from preceding convection. 5 percent tornado probabilities have also been added where a bow echo would most likely reach mature stage, where line-end and leading-line/system-scale mesovortices may foster leading-line QLCS tornado potential. However, even in the event that a bow echo does not materialize, a surface cold front will approach the Midwest tomorrow, contributing to linear convective initiation amid strong/extreme buoyancy, where severe gusts will still be of concern. ...Portions of the Northeast... The first in a series of mid-level impulses traversing the cyclonic flow aloft will approach the northern Appalachians by late morning/early afternoon, contributing to increasing thunderstorm coverage during the day. Surface dewpoints exceeding 70 F in several areas, along with modest mid-level lapse rates (perhaps approaching 7 C/km in spots), will result in widespread 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Stronger flow aloft will likely remain west into the OH Valley though, so vertical shear should be modest at best (i.e. bulk effective shear values around 25 kts). Pulse cellular and occasional multicell complexes are possible, accompanied by mainly a damaging gust threat. Storms should gradually weaken around or after sunset. ...Portions of the Central High Plains... Upslope low-level flow by late afternoon/early evening, in tandem with peak afternoon heating, will encourage at least scattered thunderstorm development along the lee of the Rocky Mountains. 30-40 kts of westerly 500 mb flow pivoting around the north side an anticyclone will assist in thunderstorms quickly moving into the central High Plains. Here, thunderstorms will be preceded by a well mixed boundary layer extending up to 700 mb. Surface to 500 mb lapse rates should be in the 8.5-9.5 C/km range, which favors deep-layer convective mixing and associated potential for severe gusts. A Category 2/Slight Risk has been added to portions of the central High Plains where thunderstorm clustering is expected to be greatest (based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus), and where cold-pool mergers are most likely to occur. ...Portions of southern into central Arizona... Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the Mogollon Rim by afternoon peak heating in central AZ. Easterly mid-level flow pivoting around the south side of an anticyclone may assist the storms in moving off of the higher terrain, amid a well-mixed boundary layer. Surface temperatures approaching 100 F ahead of the storms, beneath the monsoonal mid-level moisture, will support MLCAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg in spots. Modest elongation of the hodographs may result in effective bulk shear values approaching 30 kts, which may support sustained multicellular clusters by late afternoon into early evening, accompanied by an isolated severe gust threat. ..Squitieri.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely from the Upper Midwest into the Mid Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes region tomorrow (Monday). A focused corridor of damaging winds is possible. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the central Plains as well as south-central/southeast Arizona. ...Synopsis... A complex severe weather scenario is possible across portions of the Midwest tomorrow (Monday). Upper ridging will prevail across the western CONUS as broad cyclonic flow remains in place, centered over the Upper MS Valley. Multiple mid-level impulses will pivot around the cyclonic flow from the Midwest into the Northeast, with a surface lee trough and associated cold front poised to sweep southeastward into the Midwest and OH Valley regions. Multiple areas/rounds of thunderstorm development are expected from the Midwest to the Northeast, with preceding storms exhibiting potential influence on the evolution of subsequent convective complexes. Nonetheless, the latest high-resolution guidance consensus, general synoptic pattern, and regional climatology, all suggest that at least one focused round of organized severe thunderstorms should occur across the Midwest at some point from the late morning to late afternoon hours, perhaps accompanied by a focused corridor of strong to severe wind gusts. Meanwhile, surface high pressure will dominate the Intermountain west, with monsoonal mid-level moisture pivoting around the upper ridge, fostering multiple areas of high-based strong to isolated severe thunderstorms from the Desert Southwest to the central High Plains. ...Midwest into the OH Valley... Multiple convective scenarios may unfold across portions of the Midwest tomorrow, including the possibility of a focused corridor or of severe gusts produced by a bow-echo MCS. By late morning/early afternoon, a pronounced mid-level impulse will quickly traverse the region, overspreading a generally west-to-east oriented surface baroclinic zone. Along this boundary, upper 70s F surface dewpoints will be in place, that in tandem with surface heating, will boost MLCAPE to at least 3500-4500 J/kg. Given strong mid-level westerly flow accompanying the impulse, appreciable low-level shear and modest deep-layer shear is expected, characterized by enlarged and curved low-level hodographs, but short hodographs aloft. This environment climatologically favors the development of a progressive bow-echo capable of producing a focused corridor of severe gusts (perhaps exceeding 75 mph in spots). Furthermore, some HREF members also depict possible bow echo development. However, there are some uncertainties regarding how the bow echo could form, with some members showing a bow echo approaching from MN/IA from Day 1 convection, or from new convective development over central IA. Since multiple rounds of preceding convection may also influence the position of the baroclinic zone and associated gradient of strong to extreme buoyancy, there is some uncertainty as to exactly where a bow echo would materialize and track. A Category 3/Enhanced risk has been introduced in the general region where a bow echo may form, and these highlights may need some adjustments during the Day 1 Outlook to account for baroclinic zone placement, or impacts from preceding convection. 5 percent tornado probabilities have also been added where a bow echo would most likely reach mature stage, where line-end and leading-line/system-scale mesovortices may foster leading-line QLCS tornado potential. However, even in the event that a bow echo does not materialize, a surface cold front will approach the Midwest tomorrow, contributing to linear convective initiation amid strong/extreme buoyancy, where severe gusts will still be of concern. ...Portions of the Northeast... The first in a series of mid-level impulses traversing the cyclonic flow aloft will approach the northern Appalachians by late morning/early afternoon, contributing to increasing thunderstorm coverage during the day. Surface dewpoints exceeding 70 F in several areas, along with modest mid-level lapse rates (perhaps approaching 7 C/km in spots), will result in widespread 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Stronger flow aloft will likely remain west into the OH Valley though, so vertical shear should be modest at best (i.e. bulk effective shear values around 25 kts). Pulse cellular and occasional multicell complexes are possible, accompanied by mainly a damaging gust threat. Storms should gradually weaken around or after sunset. ...Portions of the Central High Plains... Upslope low-level flow by late afternoon/early evening, in tandem with peak afternoon heating, will encourage at least scattered thunderstorm development along the lee of the Rocky Mountains. 30-40 kts of westerly 500 mb flow pivoting around the north side an anticyclone will assist in thunderstorms quickly moving into the central High Plains. Here, thunderstorms will be preceded by a well mixed boundary layer extending up to 700 mb. Surface to 500 mb lapse rates should be in the 8.5-9.5 C/km range, which favors deep-layer convective mixing and associated potential for severe gusts. A Category 2/Slight Risk has been added to portions of the central High Plains where thunderstorm clustering is expected to be greatest (based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus), and where cold-pool mergers are most likely to occur. ...Portions of southern into central Arizona... Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the Mogollon Rim by afternoon peak heating in central AZ. Easterly mid-level flow pivoting around the south side of an anticyclone may assist the storms in moving off of the higher terrain, amid a well-mixed boundary layer. Surface temperatures approaching 100 F ahead of the storms, beneath the monsoonal mid-level moisture, will support MLCAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg in spots. Modest elongation of the hodographs may result in effective bulk shear values approaching 30 kts, which may support sustained multicellular clusters by late afternoon into early evening, accompanied by an isolated severe gust threat. ..Squitieri.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely from the Upper Midwest into the Mid Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes region tomorrow (Monday). A focused corridor of damaging winds is possible. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the central Plains as well as south-central/southeast Arizona. ...Synopsis... A complex severe weather scenario is possible across portions of the Midwest tomorrow (Monday). Upper ridging will prevail across the western CONUS as broad cyclonic flow remains in place, centered over the Upper MS Valley. Multiple mid-level impulses will pivot around the cyclonic flow from the Midwest into the Northeast, with a surface lee trough and associated cold front poised to sweep southeastward into the Midwest and OH Valley regions. Multiple areas/rounds of thunderstorm development are expected from the Midwest to the Northeast, with preceding storms exhibiting potential influence on the evolution of subsequent convective complexes. Nonetheless, the latest high-resolution guidance consensus, general synoptic pattern, and regional climatology, all suggest that at least one focused round of organized severe thunderstorms should occur across the Midwest at some point from the late morning to late afternoon hours, perhaps accompanied by a focused corridor of strong to severe wind gusts. Meanwhile, surface high pressure will dominate the Intermountain west, with monsoonal mid-level moisture pivoting around the upper ridge, fostering multiple areas of high-based strong to isolated severe thunderstorms from the Desert Southwest to the central High Plains. ...Midwest into the OH Valley... Multiple convective scenarios may unfold across portions of the Midwest tomorrow, including the possibility of a focused corridor or of severe gusts produced by a bow-echo MCS. By late morning/early afternoon, a pronounced mid-level impulse will quickly traverse the region, overspreading a generally west-to-east oriented surface baroclinic zone. Along this boundary, upper 70s F surface dewpoints will be in place, that in tandem with surface heating, will boost MLCAPE to at least 3500-4500 J/kg. Given strong mid-level westerly flow accompanying the impulse, appreciable low-level shear and modest deep-layer shear is expected, characterized by enlarged and curved low-level hodographs, but short hodographs aloft. This environment climatologically favors the development of a progressive bow-echo capable of producing a focused corridor of severe gusts (perhaps exceeding 75 mph in spots). Furthermore, some HREF members also depict possible bow echo development. However, there are some uncertainties regarding how the bow echo could form, with some members showing a bow echo approaching from MN/IA from Day 1 convection, or from new convective development over central IA. Since multiple rounds of preceding convection may also influence the position of the baroclinic zone and associated gradient of strong to extreme buoyancy, there is some uncertainty as to exactly where a bow echo would materialize and track. A Category 3/Enhanced risk has been introduced in the general region where a bow echo may form, and these highlights may need some adjustments during the Day 1 Outlook to account for baroclinic zone placement, or impacts from preceding convection. 5 percent tornado probabilities have also been added where a bow echo would most likely reach mature stage, where line-end and leading-line/system-scale mesovortices may foster leading-line QLCS tornado potential. However, even in the event that a bow echo does not materialize, a surface cold front will approach the Midwest tomorrow, contributing to linear convective initiation amid strong/extreme buoyancy, where severe gusts will still be of concern. ...Portions of the Northeast... The first in a series of mid-level impulses traversing the cyclonic flow aloft will approach the northern Appalachians by late morning/early afternoon, contributing to increasing thunderstorm coverage during the day. Surface dewpoints exceeding 70 F in several areas, along with modest mid-level lapse rates (perhaps approaching 7 C/km in spots), will result in widespread 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Stronger flow aloft will likely remain west into the OH Valley though, so vertical shear should be modest at best (i.e. bulk effective shear values around 25 kts). Pulse cellular and occasional multicell complexes are possible, accompanied by mainly a damaging gust threat. Storms should gradually weaken around or after sunset. ...Portions of the Central High Plains... Upslope low-level flow by late afternoon/early evening, in tandem with peak afternoon heating, will encourage at least scattered thunderstorm development along the lee of the Rocky Mountains. 30-40 kts of westerly 500 mb flow pivoting around the north side an anticyclone will assist in thunderstorms quickly moving into the central High Plains. Here, thunderstorms will be preceded by a well mixed boundary layer extending up to 700 mb. Surface to 500 mb lapse rates should be in the 8.5-9.5 C/km range, which favors deep-layer convective mixing and associated potential for severe gusts. A Category 2/Slight Risk has been added to portions of the central High Plains where thunderstorm clustering is expected to be greatest (based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus), and where cold-pool mergers are most likely to occur. ...Portions of southern into central Arizona... Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the Mogollon Rim by afternoon peak heating in central AZ. Easterly mid-level flow pivoting around the south side of an anticyclone may assist the storms in moving off of the higher terrain, amid a well-mixed boundary layer. Surface temperatures approaching 100 F ahead of the storms, beneath the monsoonal mid-level moisture, will support MLCAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg in spots. Modest elongation of the hodographs may result in effective bulk shear values approaching 30 kts, which may support sustained multicellular clusters by late afternoon into early evening, accompanied by an isolated severe gust threat. ..Squitieri.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely from the Upper Midwest into the Mid Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes region tomorrow (Monday). A focused corridor of damaging winds is possible. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the central Plains as well as south-central/southeast Arizona. ...Synopsis... A complex severe weather scenario is possible across portions of the Midwest tomorrow (Monday). Upper ridging will prevail across the western CONUS as broad cyclonic flow remains in place, centered over the Upper MS Valley. Multiple mid-level impulses will pivot around the cyclonic flow from the Midwest into the Northeast, with a surface lee trough and associated cold front poised to sweep southeastward into the Midwest and OH Valley regions. Multiple areas/rounds of thunderstorm development are expected from the Midwest to the Northeast, with preceding storms exhibiting potential influence on the evolution of subsequent convective complexes. Nonetheless, the latest high-resolution guidance consensus, general synoptic pattern, and regional climatology, all suggest that at least one focused round of organized severe thunderstorms should occur across the Midwest at some point from the late morning to late afternoon hours, perhaps accompanied by a focused corridor of strong to severe wind gusts. Meanwhile, surface high pressure will dominate the Intermountain west, with monsoonal mid-level moisture pivoting around the upper ridge, fostering multiple areas of high-based strong to isolated severe thunderstorms from the Desert Southwest to the central High Plains. ...Midwest into the OH Valley... Multiple convective scenarios may unfold across portions of the Midwest tomorrow, including the possibility of a focused corridor or of severe gusts produced by a bow-echo MCS. By late morning/early afternoon, a pronounced mid-level impulse will quickly traverse the region, overspreading a generally west-to-east oriented surface baroclinic zone. Along this boundary, upper 70s F surface dewpoints will be in place, that in tandem with surface heating, will boost MLCAPE to at least 3500-4500 J/kg. Given strong mid-level westerly flow accompanying the impulse, appreciable low-level shear and modest deep-layer shear is expected, characterized by enlarged and curved low-level hodographs, but short hodographs aloft. This environment climatologically favors the development of a progressive bow-echo capable of producing a focused corridor of severe gusts (perhaps exceeding 75 mph in spots). Furthermore, some HREF members also depict possible bow echo development. However, there are some uncertainties regarding how the bow echo could form, with some members showing a bow echo approaching from MN/IA from Day 1 convection, or from new convective development over central IA. Since multiple rounds of preceding convection may also influence the position of the baroclinic zone and associated gradient of strong to extreme buoyancy, there is some uncertainty as to exactly where a bow echo would materialize and track. A Category 3/Enhanced risk has been introduced in the general region where a bow echo may form, and these highlights may need some adjustments during the Day 1 Outlook to account for baroclinic zone placement, or impacts from preceding convection. 5 percent tornado probabilities have also been added where a bow echo would most likely reach mature stage, where line-end and leading-line/system-scale mesovortices may foster leading-line QLCS tornado potential. However, even in the event that a bow echo does not materialize, a surface cold front will approach the Midwest tomorrow, contributing to linear convective initiation amid strong/extreme buoyancy, where severe gusts will still be of concern. ...Portions of the Northeast... The first in a series of mid-level impulses traversing the cyclonic flow aloft will approach the northern Appalachians by late morning/early afternoon, contributing to increasing thunderstorm coverage during the day. Surface dewpoints exceeding 70 F in several areas, along with modest mid-level lapse rates (perhaps approaching 7 C/km in spots), will result in widespread 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Stronger flow aloft will likely remain west into the OH Valley though, so vertical shear should be modest at best (i.e. bulk effective shear values around 25 kts). Pulse cellular and occasional multicell complexes are possible, accompanied by mainly a damaging gust threat. Storms should gradually weaken around or after sunset. ...Portions of the Central High Plains... Upslope low-level flow by late afternoon/early evening, in tandem with peak afternoon heating, will encourage at least scattered thunderstorm development along the lee of the Rocky Mountains. 30-40 kts of westerly 500 mb flow pivoting around the north side an anticyclone will assist in thunderstorms quickly moving into the central High Plains. Here, thunderstorms will be preceded by a well mixed boundary layer extending up to 700 mb. Surface to 500 mb lapse rates should be in the 8.5-9.5 C/km range, which favors deep-layer convective mixing and associated potential for severe gusts. A Category 2/Slight Risk has been added to portions of the central High Plains where thunderstorm clustering is expected to be greatest (based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus), and where cold-pool mergers are most likely to occur. ...Portions of southern into central Arizona... Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the Mogollon Rim by afternoon peak heating in central AZ. Easterly mid-level flow pivoting around the south side of an anticyclone may assist the storms in moving off of the higher terrain, amid a well-mixed boundary layer. Surface temperatures approaching 100 F ahead of the storms, beneath the monsoonal mid-level moisture, will support MLCAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg in spots. Modest elongation of the hodographs may result in effective bulk shear values approaching 30 kts, which may support sustained multicellular clusters by late afternoon into early evening, accompanied by an isolated severe gust threat. ..Squitieri.. 07/14/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 141718
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jul 14 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central and Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Development of this
system, if any, should be slow to occur while it moves westward or
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central and western
portion of the basin through mid- to late-week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z No changes are need to the previous D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Widely scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather risk across much of the West for today amid continued warm/dry conditions with widespread receptive fuels. Thunderstorm activity has been fairly widespread across the Great Basin and parts of the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies over the past 24 hours. GOES IR/fire temperature imagery reveals multiple hot spots that have emerged during this period, possibly as a result of lightning strikes. MRMS rainfall estimates suggests that wetting rainfall was largely confined to the central Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley with little accumulation further north into the Great Basin. A similar scenario is anticipated for today across a broad swath of the West. 00 UTC soundings continued to sample adequate mid-level moisture and sufficiently steep lapse rates to support weak convection, and GOES PWAT imagery suggests 0.5-0.9 inch PWAT values have spread east from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. While some low-level cooling/moistening from yesterday's convection is noted in surface temperature and RH trends, conditions in the lowest few kilometers should remain sufficiently dry to limit rainfall amounts. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain isolated to widely scattered with the exception of parts of the Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley where higher PWATS will favor a mix of wet/dry storms. Given the antecedent dry fuels and ongoing fires, dry lightning and strong outflow winds will continue to pose a fire weather concern. ...Columbia Basin... A lee trough east of the Cascades is forecast to deepen this afternoon, which will result in strengthening downslope/gap winds into the Columbia Basin and through the Columbia Gorge. Ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably high probability for 15-20 mph winds with RH falling into the single digits to low teens. Elevated conditions are expected, and a few locations may see a couple hours of critical conditions with winds closer to 20 mph. Recent fire activity in the region indicates that fuels are receptive and should support the fire weather threat. ...Eastern Oregon into southern Idaho... Recent model solutions have shifted the stronger mid-level flow northward away from the northern Great Basin. This trend appears to be supported by upper-air observations and analyses over the past 6-12 hours. Consequently, the potential for mixing down stronger flow to the surface appears to be reduced compared to previous forecasts. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance with lower probability for sustained elevated conditions. The previous Elevated risk area has been removed given this trend, but areas of transient elevated wind/RH conditions will remain possible. ...Southern Montana to eastern Wyoming... Patchy elevated fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon from south-central MT into eastern WY. A deepening surface low along the northern High Plains should support 15-20 mph downslope winds with RH values falling into the teens to low 20s. While the synoptic pattern favors a fire weather concern, deterministic solutions show considerable spread in the strengthen of winds and coverage/duration of elevated conditions - possibly due to the potential for convection by mid-afternoon. Likewise, only a modest signal is noted in ensemble guidance. However, given active wildfires in this region over the past 24 hours (mostly across southern MT), trends will be monitored for the need for highlights in future forecast updates. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z No changes are need to the previous D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Widely scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather risk across much of the West for today amid continued warm/dry conditions with widespread receptive fuels. Thunderstorm activity has been fairly widespread across the Great Basin and parts of the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies over the past 24 hours. GOES IR/fire temperature imagery reveals multiple hot spots that have emerged during this period, possibly as a result of lightning strikes. MRMS rainfall estimates suggests that wetting rainfall was largely confined to the central Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley with little accumulation further north into the Great Basin. A similar scenario is anticipated for today across a broad swath of the West. 00 UTC soundings continued to sample adequate mid-level moisture and sufficiently steep lapse rates to support weak convection, and GOES PWAT imagery suggests 0.5-0.9 inch PWAT values have spread east from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. While some low-level cooling/moistening from yesterday's convection is noted in surface temperature and RH trends, conditions in the lowest few kilometers should remain sufficiently dry to limit rainfall amounts. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain isolated to widely scattered with the exception of parts of the Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley where higher PWATS will favor a mix of wet/dry storms. Given the antecedent dry fuels and ongoing fires, dry lightning and strong outflow winds will continue to pose a fire weather concern. ...Columbia Basin... A lee trough east of the Cascades is forecast to deepen this afternoon, which will result in strengthening downslope/gap winds into the Columbia Basin and through the Columbia Gorge. Ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably high probability for 15-20 mph winds with RH falling into the single digits to low teens. Elevated conditions are expected, and a few locations may see a couple hours of critical conditions with winds closer to 20 mph. Recent fire activity in the region indicates that fuels are receptive and should support the fire weather threat. ...Eastern Oregon into southern Idaho... Recent model solutions have shifted the stronger mid-level flow northward away from the northern Great Basin. This trend appears to be supported by upper-air observations and analyses over the past 6-12 hours. Consequently, the potential for mixing down stronger flow to the surface appears to be reduced compared to previous forecasts. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance with lower probability for sustained elevated conditions. The previous Elevated risk area has been removed given this trend, but areas of transient elevated wind/RH conditions will remain possible. ...Southern Montana to eastern Wyoming... Patchy elevated fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon from south-central MT into eastern WY. A deepening surface low along the northern High Plains should support 15-20 mph downslope winds with RH values falling into the teens to low 20s. While the synoptic pattern favors a fire weather concern, deterministic solutions show considerable spread in the strengthen of winds and coverage/duration of elevated conditions - possibly due to the potential for convection by mid-afternoon. Likewise, only a modest signal is noted in ensemble guidance. However, given active wildfires in this region over the past 24 hours (mostly across southern MT), trends will be monitored for the need for highlights in future forecast updates. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z No changes are need to the previous D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Widely scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather risk across much of the West for today amid continued warm/dry conditions with widespread receptive fuels. Thunderstorm activity has been fairly widespread across the Great Basin and parts of the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies over the past 24 hours. GOES IR/fire temperature imagery reveals multiple hot spots that have emerged during this period, possibly as a result of lightning strikes. MRMS rainfall estimates suggests that wetting rainfall was largely confined to the central Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley with little accumulation further north into the Great Basin. A similar scenario is anticipated for today across a broad swath of the West. 00 UTC soundings continued to sample adequate mid-level moisture and sufficiently steep lapse rates to support weak convection, and GOES PWAT imagery suggests 0.5-0.9 inch PWAT values have spread east from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. While some low-level cooling/moistening from yesterday's convection is noted in surface temperature and RH trends, conditions in the lowest few kilometers should remain sufficiently dry to limit rainfall amounts. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain isolated to widely scattered with the exception of parts of the Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley where higher PWATS will favor a mix of wet/dry storms. Given the antecedent dry fuels and ongoing fires, dry lightning and strong outflow winds will continue to pose a fire weather concern. ...Columbia Basin... A lee trough east of the Cascades is forecast to deepen this afternoon, which will result in strengthening downslope/gap winds into the Columbia Basin and through the Columbia Gorge. Ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably high probability for 15-20 mph winds with RH falling into the single digits to low teens. Elevated conditions are expected, and a few locations may see a couple hours of critical conditions with winds closer to 20 mph. Recent fire activity in the region indicates that fuels are receptive and should support the fire weather threat. ...Eastern Oregon into southern Idaho... Recent model solutions have shifted the stronger mid-level flow northward away from the northern Great Basin. This trend appears to be supported by upper-air observations and analyses over the past 6-12 hours. Consequently, the potential for mixing down stronger flow to the surface appears to be reduced compared to previous forecasts. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance with lower probability for sustained elevated conditions. The previous Elevated risk area has been removed given this trend, but areas of transient elevated wind/RH conditions will remain possible. ...Southern Montana to eastern Wyoming... Patchy elevated fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon from south-central MT into eastern WY. A deepening surface low along the northern High Plains should support 15-20 mph downslope winds with RH values falling into the teens to low 20s. While the synoptic pattern favors a fire weather concern, deterministic solutions show considerable spread in the strengthen of winds and coverage/duration of elevated conditions - possibly due to the potential for convection by mid-afternoon. Likewise, only a modest signal is noted in ensemble guidance. However, given active wildfires in this region over the past 24 hours (mostly across southern MT), trends will be monitored for the need for highlights in future forecast updates. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z No changes are need to the previous D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Widely scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather risk across much of the West for today amid continued warm/dry conditions with widespread receptive fuels. Thunderstorm activity has been fairly widespread across the Great Basin and parts of the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies over the past 24 hours. GOES IR/fire temperature imagery reveals multiple hot spots that have emerged during this period, possibly as a result of lightning strikes. MRMS rainfall estimates suggests that wetting rainfall was largely confined to the central Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley with little accumulation further north into the Great Basin. A similar scenario is anticipated for today across a broad swath of the West. 00 UTC soundings continued to sample adequate mid-level moisture and sufficiently steep lapse rates to support weak convection, and GOES PWAT imagery suggests 0.5-0.9 inch PWAT values have spread east from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. While some low-level cooling/moistening from yesterday's convection is noted in surface temperature and RH trends, conditions in the lowest few kilometers should remain sufficiently dry to limit rainfall amounts. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain isolated to widely scattered with the exception of parts of the Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley where higher PWATS will favor a mix of wet/dry storms. Given the antecedent dry fuels and ongoing fires, dry lightning and strong outflow winds will continue to pose a fire weather concern. ...Columbia Basin... A lee trough east of the Cascades is forecast to deepen this afternoon, which will result in strengthening downslope/gap winds into the Columbia Basin and through the Columbia Gorge. Ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably high probability for 15-20 mph winds with RH falling into the single digits to low teens. Elevated conditions are expected, and a few locations may see a couple hours of critical conditions with winds closer to 20 mph. Recent fire activity in the region indicates that fuels are receptive and should support the fire weather threat. ...Eastern Oregon into southern Idaho... Recent model solutions have shifted the stronger mid-level flow northward away from the northern Great Basin. This trend appears to be supported by upper-air observations and analyses over the past 6-12 hours. Consequently, the potential for mixing down stronger flow to the surface appears to be reduced compared to previous forecasts. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance with lower probability for sustained elevated conditions. The previous Elevated risk area has been removed given this trend, but areas of transient elevated wind/RH conditions will remain possible. ...Southern Montana to eastern Wyoming... Patchy elevated fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon from south-central MT into eastern WY. A deepening surface low along the northern High Plains should support 15-20 mph downslope winds with RH values falling into the teens to low 20s. While the synoptic pattern favors a fire weather concern, deterministic solutions show considerable spread in the strengthen of winds and coverage/duration of elevated conditions - possibly due to the potential for convection by mid-afternoon. Likewise, only a modest signal is noted in ensemble guidance. However, given active wildfires in this region over the past 24 hours (mostly across southern MT), trends will be monitored for the need for highlights in future forecast updates. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z No changes are need to the previous D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Widely scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather risk across much of the West for today amid continued warm/dry conditions with widespread receptive fuels. Thunderstorm activity has been fairly widespread across the Great Basin and parts of the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies over the past 24 hours. GOES IR/fire temperature imagery reveals multiple hot spots that have emerged during this period, possibly as a result of lightning strikes. MRMS rainfall estimates suggests that wetting rainfall was largely confined to the central Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley with little accumulation further north into the Great Basin. A similar scenario is anticipated for today across a broad swath of the West. 00 UTC soundings continued to sample adequate mid-level moisture and sufficiently steep lapse rates to support weak convection, and GOES PWAT imagery suggests 0.5-0.9 inch PWAT values have spread east from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. While some low-level cooling/moistening from yesterday's convection is noted in surface temperature and RH trends, conditions in the lowest few kilometers should remain sufficiently dry to limit rainfall amounts. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain isolated to widely scattered with the exception of parts of the Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley where higher PWATS will favor a mix of wet/dry storms. Given the antecedent dry fuels and ongoing fires, dry lightning and strong outflow winds will continue to pose a fire weather concern. ...Columbia Basin... A lee trough east of the Cascades is forecast to deepen this afternoon, which will result in strengthening downslope/gap winds into the Columbia Basin and through the Columbia Gorge. Ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably high probability for 15-20 mph winds with RH falling into the single digits to low teens. Elevated conditions are expected, and a few locations may see a couple hours of critical conditions with winds closer to 20 mph. Recent fire activity in the region indicates that fuels are receptive and should support the fire weather threat. ...Eastern Oregon into southern Idaho... Recent model solutions have shifted the stronger mid-level flow northward away from the northern Great Basin. This trend appears to be supported by upper-air observations and analyses over the past 6-12 hours. Consequently, the potential for mixing down stronger flow to the surface appears to be reduced compared to previous forecasts. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance with lower probability for sustained elevated conditions. The previous Elevated risk area has been removed given this trend, but areas of transient elevated wind/RH conditions will remain possible. ...Southern Montana to eastern Wyoming... Patchy elevated fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon from south-central MT into eastern WY. A deepening surface low along the northern High Plains should support 15-20 mph downslope winds with RH values falling into the teens to low 20s. While the synoptic pattern favors a fire weather concern, deterministic solutions show considerable spread in the strengthen of winds and coverage/duration of elevated conditions - possibly due to the potential for convection by mid-afternoon. Likewise, only a modest signal is noted in ensemble guidance. However, given active wildfires in this region over the past 24 hours (mostly across southern MT), trends will be monitored for the need for highlights in future forecast updates. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z No changes are need to the previous D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Widely scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather risk across much of the West for today amid continued warm/dry conditions with widespread receptive fuels. Thunderstorm activity has been fairly widespread across the Great Basin and parts of the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies over the past 24 hours. GOES IR/fire temperature imagery reveals multiple hot spots that have emerged during this period, possibly as a result of lightning strikes. MRMS rainfall estimates suggests that wetting rainfall was largely confined to the central Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley with little accumulation further north into the Great Basin. A similar scenario is anticipated for today across a broad swath of the West. 00 UTC soundings continued to sample adequate mid-level moisture and sufficiently steep lapse rates to support weak convection, and GOES PWAT imagery suggests 0.5-0.9 inch PWAT values have spread east from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. While some low-level cooling/moistening from yesterday's convection is noted in surface temperature and RH trends, conditions in the lowest few kilometers should remain sufficiently dry to limit rainfall amounts. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain isolated to widely scattered with the exception of parts of the Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley where higher PWATS will favor a mix of wet/dry storms. Given the antecedent dry fuels and ongoing fires, dry lightning and strong outflow winds will continue to pose a fire weather concern. ...Columbia Basin... A lee trough east of the Cascades is forecast to deepen this afternoon, which will result in strengthening downslope/gap winds into the Columbia Basin and through the Columbia Gorge. Ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably high probability for 15-20 mph winds with RH falling into the single digits to low teens. Elevated conditions are expected, and a few locations may see a couple hours of critical conditions with winds closer to 20 mph. Recent fire activity in the region indicates that fuels are receptive and should support the fire weather threat. ...Eastern Oregon into southern Idaho... Recent model solutions have shifted the stronger mid-level flow northward away from the northern Great Basin. This trend appears to be supported by upper-air observations and analyses over the past 6-12 hours. Consequently, the potential for mixing down stronger flow to the surface appears to be reduced compared to previous forecasts. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance with lower probability for sustained elevated conditions. The previous Elevated risk area has been removed given this trend, but areas of transient elevated wind/RH conditions will remain possible. ...Southern Montana to eastern Wyoming... Patchy elevated fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon from south-central MT into eastern WY. A deepening surface low along the northern High Plains should support 15-20 mph downslope winds with RH values falling into the teens to low 20s. While the synoptic pattern favors a fire weather concern, deterministic solutions show considerable spread in the strengthen of winds and coverage/duration of elevated conditions - possibly due to the potential for convection by mid-afternoon. Likewise, only a modest signal is noted in ensemble guidance. However, given active wildfires in this region over the past 24 hours (mostly across southern MT), trends will be monitored for the need for highlights in future forecast updates. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z No changes are need to the previous D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Widely scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather risk across much of the West for today amid continued warm/dry conditions with widespread receptive fuels. Thunderstorm activity has been fairly widespread across the Great Basin and parts of the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies over the past 24 hours. GOES IR/fire temperature imagery reveals multiple hot spots that have emerged during this period, possibly as a result of lightning strikes. MRMS rainfall estimates suggests that wetting rainfall was largely confined to the central Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley with little accumulation further north into the Great Basin. A similar scenario is anticipated for today across a broad swath of the West. 00 UTC soundings continued to sample adequate mid-level moisture and sufficiently steep lapse rates to support weak convection, and GOES PWAT imagery suggests 0.5-0.9 inch PWAT values have spread east from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. While some low-level cooling/moistening from yesterday's convection is noted in surface temperature and RH trends, conditions in the lowest few kilometers should remain sufficiently dry to limit rainfall amounts. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain isolated to widely scattered with the exception of parts of the Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley where higher PWATS will favor a mix of wet/dry storms. Given the antecedent dry fuels and ongoing fires, dry lightning and strong outflow winds will continue to pose a fire weather concern. ...Columbia Basin... A lee trough east of the Cascades is forecast to deepen this afternoon, which will result in strengthening downslope/gap winds into the Columbia Basin and through the Columbia Gorge. Ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably high probability for 15-20 mph winds with RH falling into the single digits to low teens. Elevated conditions are expected, and a few locations may see a couple hours of critical conditions with winds closer to 20 mph. Recent fire activity in the region indicates that fuels are receptive and should support the fire weather threat. ...Eastern Oregon into southern Idaho... Recent model solutions have shifted the stronger mid-level flow northward away from the northern Great Basin. This trend appears to be supported by upper-air observations and analyses over the past 6-12 hours. Consequently, the potential for mixing down stronger flow to the surface appears to be reduced compared to previous forecasts. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance with lower probability for sustained elevated conditions. The previous Elevated risk area has been removed given this trend, but areas of transient elevated wind/RH conditions will remain possible. ...Southern Montana to eastern Wyoming... Patchy elevated fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon from south-central MT into eastern WY. A deepening surface low along the northern High Plains should support 15-20 mph downslope winds with RH values falling into the teens to low 20s. While the synoptic pattern favors a fire weather concern, deterministic solutions show considerable spread in the strengthen of winds and coverage/duration of elevated conditions - possibly due to the potential for convection by mid-afternoon. Likewise, only a modest signal is noted in ensemble guidance. However, given active wildfires in this region over the past 24 hours (mostly across southern MT), trends will be monitored for the need for highlights in future forecast updates. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z No changes are need to the previous D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Widely scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather risk across much of the West for today amid continued warm/dry conditions with widespread receptive fuels. Thunderstorm activity has been fairly widespread across the Great Basin and parts of the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies over the past 24 hours. GOES IR/fire temperature imagery reveals multiple hot spots that have emerged during this period, possibly as a result of lightning strikes. MRMS rainfall estimates suggests that wetting rainfall was largely confined to the central Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley with little accumulation further north into the Great Basin. A similar scenario is anticipated for today across a broad swath of the West. 00 UTC soundings continued to sample adequate mid-level moisture and sufficiently steep lapse rates to support weak convection, and GOES PWAT imagery suggests 0.5-0.9 inch PWAT values have spread east from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. While some low-level cooling/moistening from yesterday's convection is noted in surface temperature and RH trends, conditions in the lowest few kilometers should remain sufficiently dry to limit rainfall amounts. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain isolated to widely scattered with the exception of parts of the Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley where higher PWATS will favor a mix of wet/dry storms. Given the antecedent dry fuels and ongoing fires, dry lightning and strong outflow winds will continue to pose a fire weather concern. ...Columbia Basin... A lee trough east of the Cascades is forecast to deepen this afternoon, which will result in strengthening downslope/gap winds into the Columbia Basin and through the Columbia Gorge. Ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably high probability for 15-20 mph winds with RH falling into the single digits to low teens. Elevated conditions are expected, and a few locations may see a couple hours of critical conditions with winds closer to 20 mph. Recent fire activity in the region indicates that fuels are receptive and should support the fire weather threat. ...Eastern Oregon into southern Idaho... Recent model solutions have shifted the stronger mid-level flow northward away from the northern Great Basin. This trend appears to be supported by upper-air observations and analyses over the past 6-12 hours. Consequently, the potential for mixing down stronger flow to the surface appears to be reduced compared to previous forecasts. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance with lower probability for sustained elevated conditions. The previous Elevated risk area has been removed given this trend, but areas of transient elevated wind/RH conditions will remain possible. ...Southern Montana to eastern Wyoming... Patchy elevated fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon from south-central MT into eastern WY. A deepening surface low along the northern High Plains should support 15-20 mph downslope winds with RH values falling into the teens to low 20s. While the synoptic pattern favors a fire weather concern, deterministic solutions show considerable spread in the strengthen of winds and coverage/duration of elevated conditions - possibly due to the potential for convection by mid-afternoon. Likewise, only a modest signal is noted in ensemble guidance. However, given active wildfires in this region over the past 24 hours (mostly across southern MT), trends will be monitored for the need for highlights in future forecast updates. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z No changes are need to the previous D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Widely scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather risk across much of the West for today amid continued warm/dry conditions with widespread receptive fuels. Thunderstorm activity has been fairly widespread across the Great Basin and parts of the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies over the past 24 hours. GOES IR/fire temperature imagery reveals multiple hot spots that have emerged during this period, possibly as a result of lightning strikes. MRMS rainfall estimates suggests that wetting rainfall was largely confined to the central Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley with little accumulation further north into the Great Basin. A similar scenario is anticipated for today across a broad swath of the West. 00 UTC soundings continued to sample adequate mid-level moisture and sufficiently steep lapse rates to support weak convection, and GOES PWAT imagery suggests 0.5-0.9 inch PWAT values have spread east from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. While some low-level cooling/moistening from yesterday's convection is noted in surface temperature and RH trends, conditions in the lowest few kilometers should remain sufficiently dry to limit rainfall amounts. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain isolated to widely scattered with the exception of parts of the Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley where higher PWATS will favor a mix of wet/dry storms. Given the antecedent dry fuels and ongoing fires, dry lightning and strong outflow winds will continue to pose a fire weather concern. ...Columbia Basin... A lee trough east of the Cascades is forecast to deepen this afternoon, which will result in strengthening downslope/gap winds into the Columbia Basin and through the Columbia Gorge. Ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably high probability for 15-20 mph winds with RH falling into the single digits to low teens. Elevated conditions are expected, and a few locations may see a couple hours of critical conditions with winds closer to 20 mph. Recent fire activity in the region indicates that fuels are receptive and should support the fire weather threat. ...Eastern Oregon into southern Idaho... Recent model solutions have shifted the stronger mid-level flow northward away from the northern Great Basin. This trend appears to be supported by upper-air observations and analyses over the past 6-12 hours. Consequently, the potential for mixing down stronger flow to the surface appears to be reduced compared to previous forecasts. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance with lower probability for sustained elevated conditions. The previous Elevated risk area has been removed given this trend, but areas of transient elevated wind/RH conditions will remain possible. ...Southern Montana to eastern Wyoming... Patchy elevated fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon from south-central MT into eastern WY. A deepening surface low along the northern High Plains should support 15-20 mph downslope winds with RH values falling into the teens to low 20s. While the synoptic pattern favors a fire weather concern, deterministic solutions show considerable spread in the strengthen of winds and coverage/duration of elevated conditions - possibly due to the potential for convection by mid-afternoon. Likewise, only a modest signal is noted in ensemble guidance. However, given active wildfires in this region over the past 24 hours (mostly across southern MT), trends will be monitored for the need for highlights in future forecast updates. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z No changes are need to the previous D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Widely scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather risk across much of the West for today amid continued warm/dry conditions with widespread receptive fuels. Thunderstorm activity has been fairly widespread across the Great Basin and parts of the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies over the past 24 hours. GOES IR/fire temperature imagery reveals multiple hot spots that have emerged during this period, possibly as a result of lightning strikes. MRMS rainfall estimates suggests that wetting rainfall was largely confined to the central Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley with little accumulation further north into the Great Basin. A similar scenario is anticipated for today across a broad swath of the West. 00 UTC soundings continued to sample adequate mid-level moisture and sufficiently steep lapse rates to support weak convection, and GOES PWAT imagery suggests 0.5-0.9 inch PWAT values have spread east from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. While some low-level cooling/moistening from yesterday's convection is noted in surface temperature and RH trends, conditions in the lowest few kilometers should remain sufficiently dry to limit rainfall amounts. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain isolated to widely scattered with the exception of parts of the Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley where higher PWATS will favor a mix of wet/dry storms. Given the antecedent dry fuels and ongoing fires, dry lightning and strong outflow winds will continue to pose a fire weather concern. ...Columbia Basin... A lee trough east of the Cascades is forecast to deepen this afternoon, which will result in strengthening downslope/gap winds into the Columbia Basin and through the Columbia Gorge. Ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably high probability for 15-20 mph winds with RH falling into the single digits to low teens. Elevated conditions are expected, and a few locations may see a couple hours of critical conditions with winds closer to 20 mph. Recent fire activity in the region indicates that fuels are receptive and should support the fire weather threat. ...Eastern Oregon into southern Idaho... Recent model solutions have shifted the stronger mid-level flow northward away from the northern Great Basin. This trend appears to be supported by upper-air observations and analyses over the past 6-12 hours. Consequently, the potential for mixing down stronger flow to the surface appears to be reduced compared to previous forecasts. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance with lower probability for sustained elevated conditions. The previous Elevated risk area has been removed given this trend, but areas of transient elevated wind/RH conditions will remain possible. ...Southern Montana to eastern Wyoming... Patchy elevated fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon from south-central MT into eastern WY. A deepening surface low along the northern High Plains should support 15-20 mph downslope winds with RH values falling into the teens to low 20s. While the synoptic pattern favors a fire weather concern, deterministic solutions show considerable spread in the strengthen of winds and coverage/duration of elevated conditions - possibly due to the potential for convection by mid-afternoon. Likewise, only a modest signal is noted in ensemble guidance. However, given active wildfires in this region over the past 24 hours (mostly across southern MT), trends will be monitored for the need for highlights in future forecast updates. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z No changes are need to the previous D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Widely scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather risk across much of the West for today amid continued warm/dry conditions with widespread receptive fuels. Thunderstorm activity has been fairly widespread across the Great Basin and parts of the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies over the past 24 hours. GOES IR/fire temperature imagery reveals multiple hot spots that have emerged during this period, possibly as a result of lightning strikes. MRMS rainfall estimates suggests that wetting rainfall was largely confined to the central Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley with little accumulation further north into the Great Basin. A similar scenario is anticipated for today across a broad swath of the West. 00 UTC soundings continued to sample adequate mid-level moisture and sufficiently steep lapse rates to support weak convection, and GOES PWAT imagery suggests 0.5-0.9 inch PWAT values have spread east from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. While some low-level cooling/moistening from yesterday's convection is noted in surface temperature and RH trends, conditions in the lowest few kilometers should remain sufficiently dry to limit rainfall amounts. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain isolated to widely scattered with the exception of parts of the Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley where higher PWATS will favor a mix of wet/dry storms. Given the antecedent dry fuels and ongoing fires, dry lightning and strong outflow winds will continue to pose a fire weather concern. ...Columbia Basin... A lee trough east of the Cascades is forecast to deepen this afternoon, which will result in strengthening downslope/gap winds into the Columbia Basin and through the Columbia Gorge. Ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably high probability for 15-20 mph winds with RH falling into the single digits to low teens. Elevated conditions are expected, and a few locations may see a couple hours of critical conditions with winds closer to 20 mph. Recent fire activity in the region indicates that fuels are receptive and should support the fire weather threat. ...Eastern Oregon into southern Idaho... Recent model solutions have shifted the stronger mid-level flow northward away from the northern Great Basin. This trend appears to be supported by upper-air observations and analyses over the past 6-12 hours. Consequently, the potential for mixing down stronger flow to the surface appears to be reduced compared to previous forecasts. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance with lower probability for sustained elevated conditions. The previous Elevated risk area has been removed given this trend, but areas of transient elevated wind/RH conditions will remain possible. ...Southern Montana to eastern Wyoming... Patchy elevated fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon from south-central MT into eastern WY. A deepening surface low along the northern High Plains should support 15-20 mph downslope winds with RH values falling into the teens to low 20s. While the synoptic pattern favors a fire weather concern, deterministic solutions show considerable spread in the strengthen of winds and coverage/duration of elevated conditions - possibly due to the potential for convection by mid-afternoon. Likewise, only a modest signal is noted in ensemble guidance. However, given active wildfires in this region over the past 24 hours (mostly across southern MT), trends will be monitored for the need for highlights in future forecast updates. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z No changes are need to the previous D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Widely scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather risk across much of the West for today amid continued warm/dry conditions with widespread receptive fuels. Thunderstorm activity has been fairly widespread across the Great Basin and parts of the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies over the past 24 hours. GOES IR/fire temperature imagery reveals multiple hot spots that have emerged during this period, possibly as a result of lightning strikes. MRMS rainfall estimates suggests that wetting rainfall was largely confined to the central Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley with little accumulation further north into the Great Basin. A similar scenario is anticipated for today across a broad swath of the West. 00 UTC soundings continued to sample adequate mid-level moisture and sufficiently steep lapse rates to support weak convection, and GOES PWAT imagery suggests 0.5-0.9 inch PWAT values have spread east from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. While some low-level cooling/moistening from yesterday's convection is noted in surface temperature and RH trends, conditions in the lowest few kilometers should remain sufficiently dry to limit rainfall amounts. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain isolated to widely scattered with the exception of parts of the Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley where higher PWATS will favor a mix of wet/dry storms. Given the antecedent dry fuels and ongoing fires, dry lightning and strong outflow winds will continue to pose a fire weather concern. ...Columbia Basin... A lee trough east of the Cascades is forecast to deepen this afternoon, which will result in strengthening downslope/gap winds into the Columbia Basin and through the Columbia Gorge. Ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably high probability for 15-20 mph winds with RH falling into the single digits to low teens. Elevated conditions are expected, and a few locations may see a couple hours of critical conditions with winds closer to 20 mph. Recent fire activity in the region indicates that fuels are receptive and should support the fire weather threat. ...Eastern Oregon into southern Idaho... Recent model solutions have shifted the stronger mid-level flow northward away from the northern Great Basin. This trend appears to be supported by upper-air observations and analyses over the past 6-12 hours. Consequently, the potential for mixing down stronger flow to the surface appears to be reduced compared to previous forecasts. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance with lower probability for sustained elevated conditions. The previous Elevated risk area has been removed given this trend, but areas of transient elevated wind/RH conditions will remain possible. ...Southern Montana to eastern Wyoming... Patchy elevated fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon from south-central MT into eastern WY. A deepening surface low along the northern High Plains should support 15-20 mph downslope winds with RH values falling into the teens to low 20s. While the synoptic pattern favors a fire weather concern, deterministic solutions show considerable spread in the strengthen of winds and coverage/duration of elevated conditions - possibly due to the potential for convection by mid-afternoon. Likewise, only a modest signal is noted in ensemble guidance. However, given active wildfires in this region over the past 24 hours (mostly across southern MT), trends will be monitored for the need for highlights in future forecast updates. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z No changes are need to the previous D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Widely scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather risk across much of the West for today amid continued warm/dry conditions with widespread receptive fuels. Thunderstorm activity has been fairly widespread across the Great Basin and parts of the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies over the past 24 hours. GOES IR/fire temperature imagery reveals multiple hot spots that have emerged during this period, possibly as a result of lightning strikes. MRMS rainfall estimates suggests that wetting rainfall was largely confined to the central Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley with little accumulation further north into the Great Basin. A similar scenario is anticipated for today across a broad swath of the West. 00 UTC soundings continued to sample adequate mid-level moisture and sufficiently steep lapse rates to support weak convection, and GOES PWAT imagery suggests 0.5-0.9 inch PWAT values have spread east from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. While some low-level cooling/moistening from yesterday's convection is noted in surface temperature and RH trends, conditions in the lowest few kilometers should remain sufficiently dry to limit rainfall amounts. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain isolated to widely scattered with the exception of parts of the Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley where higher PWATS will favor a mix of wet/dry storms. Given the antecedent dry fuels and ongoing fires, dry lightning and strong outflow winds will continue to pose a fire weather concern. ...Columbia Basin... A lee trough east of the Cascades is forecast to deepen this afternoon, which will result in strengthening downslope/gap winds into the Columbia Basin and through the Columbia Gorge. Ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably high probability for 15-20 mph winds with RH falling into the single digits to low teens. Elevated conditions are expected, and a few locations may see a couple hours of critical conditions with winds closer to 20 mph. Recent fire activity in the region indicates that fuels are receptive and should support the fire weather threat. ...Eastern Oregon into southern Idaho... Recent model solutions have shifted the stronger mid-level flow northward away from the northern Great Basin. This trend appears to be supported by upper-air observations and analyses over the past 6-12 hours. Consequently, the potential for mixing down stronger flow to the surface appears to be reduced compared to previous forecasts. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance with lower probability for sustained elevated conditions. The previous Elevated risk area has been removed given this trend, but areas of transient elevated wind/RH conditions will remain possible. ...Southern Montana to eastern Wyoming... Patchy elevated fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon from south-central MT into eastern WY. A deepening surface low along the northern High Plains should support 15-20 mph downslope winds with RH values falling into the teens to low 20s. While the synoptic pattern favors a fire weather concern, deterministic solutions show considerable spread in the strengthen of winds and coverage/duration of elevated conditions - possibly due to the potential for convection by mid-afternoon. Likewise, only a modest signal is noted in ensemble guidance. However, given active wildfires in this region over the past 24 hours (mostly across southern MT), trends will be monitored for the need for highlights in future forecast updates. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more